 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Unlike most weeks we're recording this prop show before most props are posted We actually have a full offering for it this week because it is the playoffs fewer games to focus on which means props are up We can actually talk about Legitimate lines we want to attack will be doing that for today with Brandon. Good. Do luck He is a senior senior managing editor for a number fire will have him on to break down his favorite player props across Wild card weekend. This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Brandon gadoola check him out on Twitter at gadoola 13 Brandon Happy wild card weekend to you only the 17th time. I've leaned on you for content this week. How you doing today? I'm good. Yeah, I like the playoffs I know we all do but I like to playoffs because it's a it's a bit of a narrower slate and it's it's you know Better teams and now we get to kind of play the game of Is it better teams when it's scour Thompson and maybe Anthony Brown starting? Is it better? well what I'll say for anyone who is Not a fan of like quarterback protection If this is what you want, this is what you're getting in some spots, but these are not the games that I'm most Most excited about I like the games with the fun quarterbacks and and the good players Yeah, we want to complain about rocking the pass or stuff and there are legitimate gripes, but if the alternative is You know watching more of this. I'm okay with being you know a little bit cautious With regard to that maybe get rid of the outliers the weird ones But we're gonna break down. Yeah, I'm sure you have tons of props around the Dolphins and the Ravens this week, right? Yeah, just Guys, let's all just do better Make the right calls. Don't make the wrong calls and then we're all set You fixed officiating Brandon. Why are you here? You should be off? You should be Roger Goodells like right-hand person. You know, I don't know why you're here So I think I'm gonna take advantage of you while you are here before you're hired to be head of officiating for the NFL We'll break down which situations Brandon's going at for the wild card weekends and players whose roles may change We get into the postseason and all of that but first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcasts our wild card weekend traditional market betting previews are up I have my first look back on Monday. We talked to Ryan Williams yesterday getting his read On the biggest gates week in his favorite bets over at Fandall Sportsbook to get both of those search for Recovery the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating interview You can also find all of these over on the Fandall YouTube page The NFL Saturday million for DFS is live on Fandall put your NFL and knowledge to the test and create your best nine-player roster While staying under the salary cap then use Fandall's live scoring feature to follow along as you compete for your share of $1,000,000 in cash prizes Including 200,000 dollars at first place all for just a $5 entry fee Saturday is coming quickly, but there is also a Sunday millions head to fandall.com and get your line-ups in today eligibility restrictions apply go to fandall.com or download the fandall app for more details Let's dig in here to wild card weekend and start things off with a topic We discussed over on our DFS podcast Brandon heat check fantasy podcast That is players whose roles could change in the postseason specifically I'm thinking back to like Aaron Jones a couple years ago He had like a 70% snap rate 65% snap rate during the regular season and suddenly he's playing every snap during the postseason So we see guys roles change when they're not being conserved for later on the year Are there any guys specifically you think could get a boost or a decrease in the postseason under that that kind of guys? I Kind of think that a lot of running backs fit that potential That's probably the case for you know every season where teams just will focus on their top running back But you know in this current NFL We're not seeing the 95 90 85% snap rates game after game for certain running backs one player who used to have that Week in week out is Christian McCaffrey, and I think that he's one of the more obvious candidates for someone whose role Could increase. I know we talked about him on the DFS show on Thursday, but It's really the running backs that I kind of am looking at and thinking there's one receiver But it's mostly the running backs like with McCaffrey He could be just completely unleashed and I would not be surprised one bit The only problem is I think that the 49ers do believe in the ability of Elijah Mitchell to spell McCaffrey and avoid running McCaffrey into the ground In games with Mitchell McCaffrey's workload has been scaled back a bit You could easily see him play 85 90% of snaps this week would not surprise me Also wouldn't surprise me if he's still on that like 65 to 70% range where he has been with Mitchell Especially if a they play from way ahead or be you know, just Show that they believe in Mitchell. Thankfully, nobody's forcing me to bet McCaffrey props. So that's fine but I think it's a little bit more ambiguous than I would like but Again, I wouldn't be surprised if we see McCaffrey unleashed within the same team I think Debo Samuel is a really interesting name 67% snap rate and week 18 in his return in a game that the starters did not finish We could see his workload scale way up Whatever he can handle that kind of situation But some more running backs. Oh almost like every well a lot of other running backs I would say kind of fit Austin Eckler is one who's snap rate is never high That's always a big problem. It's been under 60% snap rate in three straight with his one game all season with more than a 70% snap rate, which sounds wrong, but I Looked at it a lot of times and I think I'm pretty sure it's right Which is just kind of absurd and with Mike Williams not a hundred percent like we could see Eckler Get scaled way up, especially if they they're struggling to move the ball Either running back honestly for the Giants and Vikings. So Dalvin coax a quantum Parkley. I could see them getting like huge workloads I'm not really is certain with like J.K. Dobbins Joe Mixon there. They kind of Seemed to be more capped on purpose for for different reasons We might be getting Gus Edwards back So I don't know if we'll get Dobbins fully unleashed Joe Mixon has a Capable number two behind him in some odd JP Ryan But I do think that like Leonard for net could extend his lead over Rashad white in that Monday night game That's kind of one thing. I'm keying in on I think a lot of like the underlying You know reading between the lines suggest that like Leonard for net is gonna step up from You know around like a 55 ish percent snap rate to maybe be in playoff Lenny again. So I'm really liking for net this week. Any thoughts for you. Am I am I too narrow on the running backs? So I think the Dobbins one I think I'm more inclined to believe he'll get boosted up because they sat him in week 18 Which is kind of like a signal thing like okay, we're tipping our hand that we really Want this guy to be the catalyst of our offense, especially with the injuries a quarterback the question is how long can they do that because Spread is very very large there. I think it should be a bit larger personally I think it should be double digits at this point for the Bengals so I think you could view that one both ways the Lenny one is interesting because Fandall sportsbook has his rushing plus receiving number at 70 and a half and That seems a little bit light if we make the assumption that you know playoff Lenny does come back I think the playoff Lenny in 2023 I guess For the year the season 2022 playoff Lenny in 2022 is different than playoff Lenny two years ago We had a huge snap rate But I still think we could expect an increase in his baseline the Interesting thing with the McCaffrey thing is so you go back to those three games that three games split where McCaffrey played with Eli Mitchell They were still mixing in Jordan Mason a bit in week 10 There was nothing from Mason in that game McCaffrey 14 carries and six targets But in week 11 Jordan Mason got four carries and week 12 he got five I think those evaporate so I wouldn't be shocked if we see both If we see Eli Mitchell play a lot in this game But I think that we'll still see a lot of work go McCaffrey's way Regardless like they can play both at the same time. That's kind of a Kyle Shanahan wants is this like positionless football not total anarchy with Trent Williams running the motion every play like he had last year but like Not full anarchy, but he kind of wants that positionless football So I would I'm not looking at McCaffrey's rushing plus receiving number cuz one 13 and a half That's very high. I can't quite get there The one I did want to ask you about is Austin Eckler because I agree with your sentiment that he could get a roll increase here because He actively asks for some time off During games because he does a lot of stuff. I would too if I were him He's very active that could change in the postseason if he's you know, if he wants to up his snap Right, I think they would let him and his rushing plus receiving number at Fandall sports Book is 89 and a half and the reason I want to go that way is because a they can't run the ball Be the Jags are good against the rush and see it gives you upside Should Mike Williams not play in this game because we'd see a lot more passing game work for Eckler that instance. So I think that of the the role changes you mentioned I think the one that sports book sports books might be under accounting for is Eckler Specifically any thoughts for you 89 and a half for him rushing plus receiving Yeah, you know, we're gonna talk Mike Williams here in just a second a little bit more with like how it pertains the Josh Palmer and those props are not up But we are getting that we are getting the prop with with Austin Eckler I think if you confirm that Mike Williams either is Not active or is going to be you know on a pitch count because the Chargers went ahead and did a really weird thing and got you know, I'm not gonna say their best receiver but a Game changer receiver. It's their most important receiver But yeah, I have Eckler's projected screwman charge at ninety one point three So it's it's pretty close there But I think you could easily make the case that if you start sprinkling in a little bit more of that usage that we're expecting that That's a really good number at eighty eighty nine and a half on Fandall sportsbook His receiving a low number is also interesting thirty five and a half He was at forty two and a half for the regular season. Obviously, that's an average versus a median So, you know, they're they're flaws and looking at just that but With Williams banged up. I do think that's also kind of interesting now. You alluded to the the Chargers past catchers Let's talk about some situations that are in flux and a lot of the times we discuss this They'll be talking about situations where props are not up and as you alluded to We see Keenan Allen up at Fandall sportsbook But no Josh Palmer no Mike Williams is that the prime situation you're looking to target this week once we get clarity on the Mike Williams injury front Yeah, so, you know, it to me like if I'm being if I'm being honest It sounds like Mike Williams is not gonna play a full game whether he's active or not It right you would think that he'd be practicing, you know, better much higher capacity than Or I just I'm just so disappointed because my Mike Williams is very fun and Justin Herbert has had only a Handful of games with both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen healthy, which might have been why you know that they They had Mike Williams and Keenan out there for as long as they did I'm just so trying to piece together. I know I'm hung up on it But Mike will like no, no, it's fair to be hung up on it because Brandon Staley yesterday was like Yeah, we want to manage of Mike Williams reps in practice because he's hurt reps Reps aren't as important as rest. I'm like Am I being gas lit? Is that is this what gas lighting is like you decided to keep Easton stick and active like You could have you could have had people active to count for your 48 thing Like the Bucks had the same 48 player active restriction as you did and they still played three quarterbacks They still got their guys out of there eventually like I Think this is what gas lighting is Well, you know, we don't have the props up for for Josh Palmer I don't think I I think I'd stay away from anything Mike Williams related because I could see him Playing on a really really low snap count. Yeah, maybe just some high-leverage stuff But you know for Josh Palmer in games without Williams You might have a different sample that you are liking but I've since week nine, you know at least week nine on I Found four games that I think might be relevant with Palmer and Keenan Allen playing But Mike Williams not really playing or not playing a lot of snaps in those games Josh Palmer's average eight and a half targets six catches and 65.3 yards So I'm not saying anything because I I don't know what his catch prop would be But I'm not saying that if it's under, you know six that I'm betting it for sure But those are pretty good numbers for Palmer He's had a he's had a good workload without Mike Williams that's definitely one of the Situations in flux that I'm kind of waiting to see and I would easily can envision myself betting on some Josh Palmer props Any others you see that you want to keep an eye on with situations that may be in flux for this week Yes, I don't know in flux I would call this but I think the Zay Jones might be like not getting enough respect down the stretch with all their past catchers healthy And with Travis etn active Zay Jones is at 7.4 targets per game, which is just shy of Christian Kirk 7.7 His receiving prop Zay Jones that is to clarify 50 and a half with minus 114 odds on both sides I think that the over is pretty enticing there in this game So I think that's one that I'm that I'm looking to target as well Another again, this is not like truly in flux But you know statistically in terms of a variance standpoint gave Davis from a catch rate over expectation standpoint the chargers Sorry gave Davis in terms of the catch rate over expectation We talked about this on The heat check and you talked me into gave Davis, but since the buy just put on me. Oh, no 40 45.3 yards 6.6 targets per game if you wait that for like some some downfield and red zone work like 10.6 targets So it's like a really good workload 4.6 downfield targets per game 15.7 yard adot but a catch rate over expectation of minus 4.4 percent. So You know again, even with like the underperformance on a per target basis He's at 45.3 yards per game that split the prop is 48 and a half with minus 114 on both sides again I lean me over there. I kind of realize I'm leading a lot of overs which is not typically my My forte, but it is kind of where I'm seeing certain things. Yeah with Gabe I think he's also interesting if you want to Because of the way he gets his targets, I think that he'd be interesting for alternate markets Taking advantage of the volatility in him Like his 60 plus receiving yards mark is plus 154 I'd want to run that through like a you know a Bet scope distribution calculator something like that to make sure I'm not getting You know because it's only the one way That's the the key thing to be wary of with alt markets is you're only getting the one way prop You're not typically getting like an over under on 60 plus yards You want to make sure that it's a it's a legitimate number But I think that gave davis in general is pretty enticing for alt markets because of the way he gets targeted so often Downfield all right. Let's take a look at some props that are up right now over at vandal sports But any yard is props in out to you right now brandon Yeah, realizing that it's two more overs which again, I usually I usually find the unders to target but I Travis etn over 78 and a half rushing yards minus 114 Um, just a really good rushing matchup doesn't get a whole lot better Chargers are allowing 1.53 rushing yards over expectation per carry and no other team is above 0.95 on the season according to next gen stats in weeks 13 through 18 etn After that like sideline game 66.2 yards per game, but 0.83 rushing yards over expectation per carry He's been very good. I think one long rush I do kind of like that would very much help him get there He has that explosiveness still I think even though he's not a hundred percent But nobody is at this point in the season and I kind of think that jaguars Do some work in that game and better Got the jack's money line. They better do work So I kind of have that like correlation angle Yeah, of us expecting the game to play out that way and then going back to learn for net I have just as uh, I know you're interested in the the scrimmage yards, but Over 38 and a half rushing yards minus 114 as well Like there's some ambiguity, but since he's returned You know, we set 13 through 17s like excluding that that week 18 game 55 snap rate 10.8 carries 41 rushing yards per game but Again, it's it's like a even that alone first of all is Above the the prop here and I I do expect for net to be the rb1 here and You know, they're I don't know how that game will play out. I'm having a little bit trouble with that one, but From a pace standpoint, we should see a lot of extra plays in this game compared to other games too Yeah, um I also have bucks plus three. So I I am heavily invested in both years going back to the etn one I typically skew towards rushing plus receiving with him specifically though I would much rather go just rushing because his Passing game workload stinks for the most part. It's been a little bit better recently But I think in this matchup where you can run on los angeles. I bet that they Focus him in that regard. So with etn specifically his rushing plus receiving is almost 100 So getting is rushing alone at 78 and a half. I think that is a much more enticing market for him Touchdown props any of value you see right now sequent Barclay minus 120 I have his odds at minus 145 uh, minnesota not a particularly great defense against I mean Not a particularly great defense But against running backs they're about average and like all the rush metrics that I look at success rate net expected points per carry Even adjusted fandal points per carry, which I know it's not like going to help us In that regard, but the the way that I do it adjust on a an individual level basis So it helps account for like if you get torched by good running backs like it's it's accounted for And again, not a specific Touchdown related stat, but they're 27th and adjusted fandal points per target allowed to running backs So I think that like there's Again, I think Barclay could be in line for as much work as he can handle I think it's a really good match up. I think this game could be high scoring and The minus 120 odds. I don't think are steep enough based on how I have them projected Yeah, and uh sake one. I think had nine targets the first time they played the vikings Um, I wouldn't be shocked if you get sir again just based on the way he's been using the passing game the past You know month and a half or so I think that that makes him gives him multiple routes to touchdown as well Any other bets you like for wildcard weekend right now? Oh, I like Tony Pollard as well to score plus. Okay. Sorry about that. What's your uh thought process there? Uh, I have a plus 155 um, again banking on like His workload to scale up a bit Uh in this game 53 the snaps and the relevant sample that I'm looking at and I just kind of think that those are solid odds for someone who Tampa Bay is still a pretty solid rush defense, but they can get kind of they can give up explosive rushes So yeah, he's at plus 185 and fan of sportsbook right now. He said plus a 155 you have met right 39 percent So 39 versus uh, 35 percent 4 percent added pretty good You'll take that for sure and I agree through that Pollard Is in a spot to potentially get skill up a bit because he's very good Not that Zeke's not like Zeke is a under appreciated football player But I think the Pollard is with the way they treated in week 17 I think that he is a prime candidate to get a little boost here. Okay What else do you see on the board right now? Another over so next time I want to show I gotta I gotta recommend all unders But I probably had that covered from from nba. I always recommend an unders and nba But tg. Hawkinson over four and a half catches that is minus 122 But since the tradies it's six and six point six catches on 9.4 targets With the catch rate over expectation of 3.7 percent a dot of seven and a half yards So there's a little bit of leverage there, but that's not really what counts for us in this prop It's a lot of safe passes that he's converting on It's not necessarily easy to have a catch rate over expectation. That's like positive if you're Expected catches are Pretty easy, but the Giants also second worst in catch rate over expectation allowed to tight ends Allowing a mark of 5.0 percentage points there and allow up an above average target per route right to the position So I think that it's just plus. He had the boy like 16 targets against them or something like he had 16 Jefferson had 15 Saquon had nine Isaiah Hodgins had 11 Richie James had 11 like that game was bananas in terms of volume on both sides Yeah, so I think it's a really good individual matchup for him for this week And his role has been pretty solid since the trade overall. Yeah, like a 23 target sure I think in that time Um, so as long as the Vikings throw out which they should because they can't run I know the bike the Giants struggle against the run but like the Vikings struggle to run against anyone Um, so I think that Hawkinson is in line for a good volume week once again That's all we got here for this wild card weekend prop show and for this wild card weekend week entirely So Brandon, I want to thank you for swinging by for today and uh, and Tuesday and doing two dfs shows with me I'm sure you're ready to stop hearing my voice in the very near future But I appreciate it. Good luck to you with wild card weekend. We'll talk to you once again here very soon Yeah, good luck to you. Uh, hope, uh, hope everything goes well this weekend. Alrighty fine Brandon on twitter I can do a 13. I am on twitter at gymsonus. Make sure you check out our previous shows from this week If you want to get set for a full card of a wild card weekend just by searching for covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast hitting subscribe and also checking it out over on the fandal youtube page Good luck to all you this weekend. We'll talk to you once again Monday to preview cowboys versus bucks This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network