 Okay, good morning. It is Thursday 25th of February going to get up to speed on what happened on the closed Wall Street Some highlights from overnight in Asia and then just generally what we're looking out for for the day ahead Had a really great masterclass session with Bilal Hafiz from macro hive yesterday So for anyone in the community on Amphi live if you missed that the recording will go up later this morning If you would like to check that you're not part of the community Just check out amplify live comm but look let's start with this which is the heat map of the S&P 500 yesterday and yesterday we saw a firm higher close on Wall Street The S&P 500 up 1.14 percent the Dow at 1.35 the Nasdaq again a slight laggard But positive 0.8% so one of the first decent major updates that we've had and if you're looking at things like the S&P We basically reversed all of the week's losses in terms of the Dow We briefly touched 32,000 of course as well an all-time high Energy as you can see on the heat map an industrial Companies led the gains financials as well particularly firm So this is that Rotational play that people are talking about so some of the familiar Softness seen in some of the large mega cap tech names like Apple and Amazon down half and one percent each Respectively but some of the more cyclical based names industrials Financials outperforming on the narrative of this improving growth Picture that people are buying into at the moment Importantly what is underpinning a lot of the movement at the moment was Apprehension if you like about what higher yields means particularly for the stock market beginning of the week Now that we've had J-PAL semi-annual testimony and he's very much Reiterated the Fed's accommodative monetary policy stance We heard very similar from the Bank of England governor yesterday Dismissing and the idea of the threat of what higher inflation might mean We've had similar as well from further commitments and tweaks to ongoing bond purchases that could be done at the ECB from Christine Lagarde so at the moment any idea that the Central banks might be nearing the point particularly with emphasis on the Fed of having discussions around tapering are Unwarranted at this point in time this low rate Very expansionary monetary policy is here to stay Despite the general improvements that we've been seeing in underlying economic data Improvements in vaccinations which as well consequently we're seeing lots of improvements on the COVID-19 developments in the likes of the US and the UK Albeit, you know one thing we do need to be aware of is that the situation in Europe a little bit more Precarious on that front particularly in the likes of France one of the major eurozone economies, of course but Allied to just generally this these moves. We've also had vaccine updates So just get up to speed We've had Pfizer by Entec COVID-19 vaccine was overwhelmingly effective against the virus in a study that followed nearly 1.2 million people In Israel Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccines We saw yesterday is seen as safe and effective according to US regulators ahead of then more formal approval at the end of the week And Moderna is planning to study multiple approaches to vaccine booster shots that could protect protect against Emerging coronavirus variants so just a lot of positive news there in general and So if we're looking at the charts this morning of what's going on We've we've basically held much of the moves that we we had at the end of yesterday so index futures in the US still Holding on to the upward move that was seen in the cash markets really from the opening bell and then as that's up about 44 points the S&P up 10 the DAX then up about 74 at the get-go this morning in the currency markets Then we're seeing a kind of reversion back to general dollar weakness theme The Dixie's down about two tenths of 1% that is giving a bit of underlying support to both major pairs this morning Which is more a reflection of the greenback as both euro dollar and cable each up around 30 pips respectively as you can see here in the top left Gold market Not too much movement going on a little bit resistance found at the daily pivot Which is also the psychological and technical resistance point of 1800 As you can see here and about turning price just as Europe came in And we're turning back down to a fairly moderately interesting technical level around 1793 at the moment down four bucks crude Just generally holding on to what has been a persistent move higher So all of those major factors we've been talking about all week still remain in play There is some perhaps you could deem bearish news coming out of an article citing sources and Reuters about the potential influx of more supply coming from OPEC, but I think at the moment that is very much overshadowed generally by this whole Kind of reflation view at the moment that's that's happening and the more positive signs about the economic story going forward a couple of stories then otherwise to update you on and One of the things I want to talk about briefly was this which I just thought was quite interesting I don't necessarily think that this is a big Positive to an action or trade right now right here in terms of the European open But it's another variable that helps support the underlying notion that equities have still got room headway on the upside to go and The stimulus checks there was an interesting survey that came out from Deutsche Bank And they basically were surveying canvassing people's opinion on the street in in the US About with these forthcoming US stimulus checks What are you going to do with them and actually saw that there was around 37 percent? well respondents would put about 37 percent of stimulus check on an average basis into equities so retail buying through See whatever form that might take you know a lot of these zero commission and trading platforms and so on but then Looking at the size of checks to the percentage this would equate to around a hundred and seventy billion dollars of Potential fresh rave of retail inflows coming into the stock market according to Deutsche Bank one of the interesting underlying metrics there was that Basically irrespective of your demographics so age or income Everyone's looking to get a piece of this stock market at the moment on a retail level And obviously the government dishing out thousand dollar plus checks to people There's a there's a significant a proportion of that. There's going to be going into the stock market Irrespective of the valuations that we might be trading and Some of the perception about whether we're overbought or not at this point in time. So yeah quite an interesting Assessment that was done by the bank The OPEC headline. I mean this is it that I was talking about so just to get you up to speed OPEC plus is reportedly weighing a boost to all output of 500,000 brows per day from April and Saudi is expected to end its voluntary one million brows per day cuts from April as well according to sources At the moment for me, you know a million million and a half here or there is obviously a meaningful amount But I would say that the market is more Forward-looking about the speed and trajectory of the economic recovery at hand at the moment I would say beyond that of what OPEC are going to do and realistically, this is two months away as well, so I Think at the moment this type of news flow is is a side issue I don't think it's particularly bearish for price if we're looking at things this morning If anything looking at WTI crude Even if we were to get some pullbacks Which we have kind of been seeing throughout the the week with oil the general Directional trade as we have been going from 58 handle all the way up to nearly a 64 I still think is to the upside at the moment any pullbacks here 63 and then 62 78 encapsulating some of the high from Midweek or I should say Tuesday's session could be quite interesting there to support prices as we go through the rest of the day Looking at the the calendar What have we got and there's a few things to comment on the UK European morning is particularly quiet There's not really a great deal of things going on. So it really is a US centric session These ten o'clock numbers coming out the eurozone and never market moving I know they sound quite punchy these sentiment readings But they're really not a focal point in terms of a catalyst to create movement in European assets The US session really is is then the focus You do have durable goods. You've got the second preliminary reading of Q4 US GDP You've got initial jobless Core PC prices, but the price core PC price index is on Friday is the key one that we're looking out for on that regard Jobless claims is expected to come out 838,000 that is a slight improvement from the prior week But and is relatively on the upper end of the averages of what we've been seeing in recent weeks But overall, you know pending home sales as well coming out at three o'clock. So a lot of US data points and Traditionally what would be, you know, quite key ones jobless GDP and durable's but for me I think as far as where we're at at the moment from an intraday sentiment basis I don't really see these data points creating too much of a meaningful Move in markets. I think for the time being the market is still kind of digesting and playing out This rebalancing if you like of getting over the fearfulness that I think dominated Market sentiment at the beginning of the week has been lifted almost by By Powell and some of the other major central bankers by just coming out and reassuring the market nothing's going to change quickly and so Yeah equities are moved higher Could be in being for a bout of Consolidation now for the time being which is basically a net neutral positioning if you're looking at S&P for on the week And I think that's probably pretty fair for the moment Yields still warrant watching of course yesterday was meaningful. We had a break above The highest levels to where we were pre-pandemic of last year so beginning of 2020 The US 10 years still resides down and around its lower levels this morning So do it still constitutes watching for the time being but right now right here at the European Open It's pretty much where we left off really at the end of yesterday and going forward I don't feel like we should necessarily right now punch higher and stocks start moving again I think perhaps then some moderate profit-taking perhaps on the move yesterday that then leads to a bit of Consolidation over the coming hours and then waiting for the US market to really get underway for for direction is how I'd be playing today Cool. Well, look, that's it. So nice and short today You can check out my my full kind of briefing if you like on my my Twitter handle below I've updated it already in the community in the discord room and Yeah worth having a read as well on an FT article that is out about the The vaccine site or the virus side of things I did post a link with a couple of graphics on my Twitter I do recommend taking a read of that as well as quite quite an interesting story to look at All right guys gonna leave it at that and wish you a good day. Thanks very much