 Yet another round of talks on the JCPOA or the Iran Nuclear Deal are on in Vienna and Austria. And this could be the final round. According to most reports, various sites are close to an agreement. A lot of technical issues have been resolved. There are still some sticking points, but we might be close to a deal. We will be talking about this on mapping fault lines. We joined by Prabir Pulkai sir. Prabir, so the reports of course suggesting that we are as close to a deal as could be possible. In fact, there are reports saying that a few more weeks and then all possibilities are going to end. So there's a lot of pressure being applied from various sources talking about a very limited time frame, for instance. But could you first take us to the overall situation? Are we close to ending what could be a very dangerous time for West Asia since 2018? Well, you know, the two issues really involved. What does it mean for the region as a whole? Because this is not just between the United States and Iran. As you know, it's also between Israel and Iran and the larger power dynamics in the region. So therefore, it should be thought of just as something which is a confrontation between the United States, which in this case was precipitated by President Trump. We draw from the agreement that Obama, President Obama and Iranian leaders have concluded. So this is, are we going to see a return back to status quo? What happened before President Trump pulled out of it? Now, if it happens and there is still an if, the question is what has the United States achieved by withdrawing from the agreement and then coming back into it? It appeared that Biden had thought of trying to extract more concessions out of Iran for returning to the deal which the Iranians have turned down. And that's where it is now that either they have a deal or there will be no deal and the JCPO is over. So that's where it is at the moment. Yes, as you said, two to three weeks, the critical time for both West Asia and the larger picture that is there in the world regarding nuclear weapons itself because nuclear weapons is something which is dangerous. And if Iran gets into the nuclear threshold, then what will happen to Saudi Arabia? Will the follow suit? What about other countries which may follow suit again? And what happens to Israel? Will they try to take out the nuclear facilities in Iran if the nuclear bomb becomes possibility in Iran? These are the big questions which are hinging on the issue of the Iran-U.S. nuclear deal. And yes, you are right. It seems from again, unconfirmed reports about the leaks that various parties have seemed to have given, which is that the both sides, the U.S. and Iran are close to an agreement. And finally it does appear that Biden has agreed to withdraw the sanctions that Trump had introduced, reintroduced actually. But that's really not the issue. The issue is, will he give guarantees that in his time, at least as president, the United States will not reimpose sanctions? I think that was the key sticking point all along. And if that guarantee is not forthcoming, then it's unlikely that Iran will get back into the deal. The other issue which the U.S. has been pressing, the question of how much Iran will roll back whatever it has achieved, I think they have lost out in that, that the possibility they had at the time that President Trump reintroduced the sanctions. I think that means that they're not going to go back to 2018 because of technological changes that Iran has introduced, better centrifuges, all of that, they're not going to roll back to 2018. So I think on the whole, what the U.S. has achieved after pulling out of the Iran-U.S. nuclear deal, which is really the JCPOA that we are talking about, is actually they have regressed and they have strengthened Iran's positions in the region. The big question mark, which is Iran and U.S. on one hand and what Israel going to do, because Israel's position is it should be free to attack developments in Iran as long as it is not war. That covert action which has led to killing of Iranian nuclear scientists, that have sabotaging of nuclear installations, they have still the right to do so. Will the U.S. stop Iran, Israel from doing it? That is the other question which is not officially the discussion, but nevertheless underlying the discussion. In this context of course, one of the key issues has been the question of the nuclear question so to speak. There are talks of their enrichment up to say 60 percent enrichment, question of 90 percent enrichment and what it implies. So could you just also take us to the science behind us. What does it mean when you're at 60 percent or 90 percent? And why is this such a big concern for the U.S.? Well, if you remember the JCPOA deal originally, Iran had got rid of whatever enriched uranium it had beyond a certain threshold, had said it won't purify uranium, enriched uranium beyond three and a half percent. That was the agreement which was there which means that low enriched uranium could be used for medical purposes, other purposes that are there which are all peaceful uses of nuclear or enriched uranium. Now when you go over to 20 percent and above, you are really entering the zone of high enriched uranium and this it may appear that 20 percent is much lower than 90 percent which is weapons grade, but reality is 20 to 90 percent is not that big a difference because you start with a very low enriched uranium and as the centrifuges spin, you enrich more and more through different cycles of the centrifuges and over a period of time when you reach 20 percent, then the number of cycles you have to spin it in the centrifuges becomes less and less as you enrich. So 60 percent is really, it's highly enriched uranium. That's the reason we are talking about 60 percent enriched uranium is for instance used in submarine fuels, but from 60 percent to 90 percent is a very short number of spins. Therefore if somebody has 60 percent enriched uranium, they are at the nuclear bomb threshold which as I said is 90 percent. Also what has happened because the US withdrew from the sanctions regime, Iran said that the only pressure they had is that in that case all bets are off, we will start enriching uranium again. Now US for some time tried to convince its partners that that was a breach of the agreement which they had walked out of. So they said this is a breach of the agreement that you must do something about it, but there was nothing left in anybody's armor to re-impose sanctions in Iran because effectively with the US imposing sanctions the European Union had stopped also applying goods or trading with Iran. So given that there is nothing that the European countries could also put as pressure. So therefore Iran's position got strengthened. The only option left was then to take what would be called the nuclear option which is to strike Iran in nuclear facilities and Israel did not have the capability of doing it anyway and that's why they wanted the United States to do it. So therefore the issue of what is the capability that Iran has got. In the three three and a half four years now that we are talking about Iran has actually improved this technology by putting in much better centrifuges with greater capability of enriching uranium and more of them. They dismantled if you remember almost I think 95 or 98% of the centrifuges they had sent out their enriched uranium to Russia so all of that they have brought back and the number of new centrifuges which are relatively better technologically more advanced means that what is being called the breakout time. How long do you need to make reach the fissile criteria of how much nuclear weapons great uranium do you have that breakout time has now become a few months and not what it was earlier. So effectively what the Trump administration did was to push new Iran closer to the nuclear threshold improve its technology allow it to deploy more centrifuges and better centrifuges all of it in fact is not reversible that easily. Therefore what has happened is Iran today has got more capability than what it had in 2018 but here is an important issue if Iran wants to make the nuclear bomb there is nothing stopping it let's be clear on that barring a war and a war with 80 billion people a war against Iran with its size 80 billion people this would be disaster for West Asia with the kind of missiles that Iran has if they go down under US attacks if US tries to destroy Iran then they will they have the ability to hit US bases around the region and they have said will take out the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates and don't forget and this is a warning they have given that we can take out even the Demona nuclear plant in Israel as well as the fertilizer plants all of that means that the entire region gets devastated so if the United States wants to take out the nuclear facilities in Iran Iran has this ability to take out a hell of a lot of infrastructure in the region and literally make Israel virtually unlivable because if you have the Demona reactor being bombed and you have the fertilizer plants being bombed you would see dispersion of both radioactive materials as well as poisonous other chemicals which will not make it easy for Israel to survive so given all of that I think if the war option is not open there is very little that the US can do as long as Iran can withstand the economic sanctions which they have withstood and therefore the leverage that the world has meaning the quote unquote international order that the United States and the other ex-colonial settler colonial states talk about they have very little therefore leverage over Iran without the help of Russia and without the help of China and as you know Russia and China have not agreed with the United States either on sanctions or the reason for the sanctions when Trump pulled out of it so I think that's where the US has exhausted its weapons unless it goes to war and Israel sabotage also doesn't really matter to Iranian facilities yes they can be pinpricks they can cause some damage but they cannot stop Iran so I think the cards that the West today has are very little and that's why finally Biden also reluctantly is coming to agreeing that either Iran agrees to certain things in lieu of withdrawing financial sanctions or we are back to seeing Iran becoming a nuclear state the only question is how serious is the Biden administration on withdrawing sanctions relaxing sanctions or they will they do what we saw earlier under the Obama regime and also under Trump that the sanctions were haltedly withdrawn hoping to create still some leverage over Iran and keeping the sort of the mockless hanging over their heads whether that policy will continue or will it be good faith actually trying to withdraw sanctions that we have yet to see and probably finally a quick question on the region itself suppose the deal does go through we know that countries will be free to trade with Iran once again there's some foreign reserves Iran has access to but do we see any kind of the possibility of any major change in the power equations in the region more negotiations perhaps or is it still going to be antagonism with just the Iran nuclear deal back on the table I think the already the region is reorganizing there's a reconfiguration that we see it's really the spark to that was not just Iran but the fall of NATO in Afghanistan I think the western powers are seen today as not being able to control other countries and therefore also the fact that Iran is becoming regionally powerful particularly it's shown as missile strength and the fact that Houthis are still fighting tacitly supported by Iran but as you know Houthis have their own strength as well given that you are seeing already Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates start discussions with Iran so I think you are seeing regional collaboration, cooperation, discussions open up I think increasingly the regional dynamics are going to become more important what role Israel plays because it is also into this regional dynamics with discussions with United Arab Emirates, the Abraham Accords so what happens there that we will have to see but I think you are likely to see Turkey, Iran also emerging as really more important players erstwhile it has been the United States backyard as you know there was the Carter doctrine that all oil in the region belongs to the United States in terms of its critical resource therefore it is within their sphere of influence so they don't like to talk about it they say that we don't believe in but that's the Carter doctrine which is distinct from the modern doctrine but very similar in what it wanted to convey to the world I think what we are seeing is really a reconfiguration of that kind of politics and this, the lifting of Iran sanctions would therefore really give a little more impetuous to what is already happening Thank you Praveen The next few days will be crucial not only for West Asia but for the entire world we will keep tracking this on mapping fault lines until then keep watching NewsClick