 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another capsule on international relations for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we discuss the new Quad which has just been formed a few days ago. The tendency these days is not to rely as much on United Nations because of the weaknesses of the system. And the tendency seems to be for more and more groups to be formed. Because United Nations is not able to exert its influence because of the various aspects like the V2. So this has to be seen, these emerging groups in different areas and different parts of the world should be seen in this context. V20 for example has assumed significance. So these activities were there but they did not come centre stage. Those were side discussions. The main discussion was of the United Nations. So there is a new trend that we have to notice. And now there are three quads already. The first one we all know about, 2007 it started in the United States, Australia and Japan. It has gone through various stages. One time it was considered a military pact. But now with the formation of AUKUS with the more economic environment oriented group. And so the concentration is on economic development and stability, maritime security etc. The second one was formed by the United States with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. We don't hear much about it. But this must have been some kind of a balancing that the US did in order to please Pakistan perhaps. Because how can Pakistan not be in some quad with the United States. So they have to form Afghanistan and Uzbekistan also. But this will have no meaning unless Afghanistan becomes a normally administered country. And that is why we don't hear much about it. And then the third quad is somewhat surprising that so far our concentration was towards the east of India. And now we are for the first time some kind of a new arrangement to the west of India. And this was not possible earlier because the Middle East was in chaos. There were so many conflicts. Palestine issue was significant. Israel was not very welcomed to several Middle East countries. And so the situation was very complex. So we could only deal with individual countries. Of course there are the League of Arab States which we dealt with. But basically our Middle East policy was individual bilateral relationships. And with most of these countries we had bilateral relations. But we were not very much involved in the politics of the Middle East except at the United Nations. It was left basically to the five permanent members particularly the United States to deal with the Middle East. And the United States has been handling it with their own power and energy. But sometimes they gave away some of the responsibility to Russia. And some arrangements were made by which United States took back and Russia dealt with some of these issues. But the dramatic change that took place is the Abraham Accords for which we have to be grateful to President Trump. Particularly his son-in-law who seems to have managed this whole arrangement by which more countries recognized Israel. Because Egypt was the first recognized Israel in 1979. Others have done that. But some of the major countries particularly in the Gulf were not receptive to the idea of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. And now they have Bahrain and UAE and there could be others. Saudi Arabia is waiting. So time is coming for Israel and other countries to establish at least some kind of working relationship. But the hostility will remain as long as Palestine does not have a state. But regardless of that, there have been many changes. And if you go to Dubai these days, the one thing that we see all around is Israeli investment. With the Expo is already on and there also you will find a big big participation from Israel and the investments are growing. Direct flights are going to Israel. These were things unthinkable a few months earlier. So this is being reflected in this new quadrature developed because United States, UAE and Israel have been working together. And in fact, just before this new quad was formed, these three countries had held a meeting in Washington five days before the new quad was established. But the new quad was established in a very interesting way for us because our external affairs minister was in Israel at that time on a bilateral visit. And he was meeting the so-called alternate prime minister and foreign minister. And into that came virtually the Secretary of State of the United States and the UAE foreign minister. And so it was a hybrid meeting where two important representatives that Israel and India were present physically and United States and UAE were represented by their ministers virtually. So they announced this formation of this group and it was quite obvious that the focus here will be more on economic development because this is to facilitate the compatibility among these four countries. For example, Israel has a lot of innovation, innovative capability. UAE has plenty of money to invest in various projects. India has the manufacturing capacity if they have the innovative project and give us the money we may be able to produce good quality consumer goods and others. And of course the United States doing its political and economic strength. So it looks very convincing that such a group was possible but it was not considered possible till a few months ago. And that's why this came as a surprise. And this adds a new dimension to India's policy towards the Middle East because of our position supportive of Palestine and not engaged very much with the other Arab countries. After Israel was recognized by Egypt etc. So we were not involved in any particular process in the region but our relations with UAE had developed very fast after the Prime Minister's visit. And with Saudi Arabia also we have excellent relations and therefore the Middle East now we are a normal country with good relations with all of them. And therefore this arrangement though it has been controversial in India before how much relationship you must have with Israel. You dilute your position on Palestine such questions were raised but those are disappeared because of the realization in India also. Even among circles who are championing Palestine that Israel would be a useful ally. Of course there is this complication about Pegasus which you heard today that the Supreme Court has ordered an investigation or an inquiry or a study or whatever of Pegasus. And that may create complicated matters a little bit because it is Israel which has produced it and we do not know the government of India purchased it or who used it, who purchased it etc. But this came before that. And so the focus is very much on economic cooperation and it says so. So with the establishment of UAE and the diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel this became possible and the agenda is enhanced economic cooperation. They talked about economic growth and global issues and interestingly enough Mr. Jai Shankar flew from UAE to Israel another unusual event. Because you would have had to go through various other countries in order to go to Israel because if you have Israel's visa on your passport the next time you may not be able to enter Arab countries such complications. That seems to have disappeared and the possibilities of infrastructure development has been particularly emphasized at this time and there is expo 2021 taking place in Dubai. So by way of economic and political cooperation in the Middle East this is a very important landmark and the other items which have been identified are naturally climate change because we are about to go to climate change meeting. Then the energy cooperation related to the environment and maritime security which is of great interest to all of us particularly those in the country in the Gulf and with so many of us, so many Indians there. The security of these countries is of concern to us. Then transportation is the main thing in the context of the expo because connectivity as you know there is a competition between BRI, China's BRI believes in building connectivity of various ways. And now there is increasing suspicion about BRI and therefore an alternative people were looking at and one of them and this one is basically thinking in terms of establishing some kind of a linkage. Travel and also technological linkages between all these groups. So obviously when US, Israel and UAE met in Washington just a week before they must have talked about the possibility of bringing India into the group. And in the Washington meeting they stressed particularly religious coexistence because Israel, United States and UAE is very important to make sure that religious coexistence is possible. And that was emphasized because the problems in the Middle East was basically because of that the conflict between religions. And the other two things that they identified in that Washington meeting where India was not there with water and energy. So all these mixes very well. And so the idea is that Israeli innovation, UAE funding and Indian manufacturing with the patronage of the United States. So that looks like a very good mix. Of course politics is not mixed with it because there was no reference anywhere in any of the conversations about Palestine and the issue, the burning issue in the Arab world. So obviously this group is not going to walk into the political problems. But of course the American position has not changed. They are still talking about two state solution, which is India's suggestion also. And therefore there is no contradiction in our working with the United States in the Middle East. Israel knows very well our position and they have accepted that India has championed Palestine. And so they don't really dispute the fact that Palestine should have a homeland but where it should be and how it should be established is really a question. But then India and Israel have been discussing a free trade agreement and that is another fashionable thing these days. Many free trade agreements are being signed and because the WTO is not as active as it should have been. And therefore the failure of the UN on the one side and the failure of the WTO on the other are making all these changes in the global situation both economic and political. And among other things they also discussed a mutual recognition of COVID certification, which is an issue globally. We have a problem as you know our core vaccine is not being recognized by everyone. And so at least among these four countries there will be no issue. Already I think UAE is recognizing our COVID shield injections, vaccination. Because vaccination as you know is a big issue now because the only solution you can find for COVID-19 has been established is to vaccinate everybody. At least reduce the risk to a latex to 90% is reduced if everybody is vaccinated. But everybody has to be vaccinated then only it will be a complete effect. So that has been taken into account and then international solar alliance which is promoted by India or several other countries. France is a major partner. Now the idea is to increase solar energy production. And this also Israel has tremendous amount of technology which it can share and UAE and India have a lot of sunshine. And therefore we may be able to move towards solar energy in a major way. And this will come in discussion at Glasgow when we talk about carbon free year. Every country is being asked to declare a carbon free year. United States at 2030, China as 2050. There's a lot of debate you must have seen in the newspapers as to what India should be doing. And the feeling is that among climatologists is that India will not be able to fix a year like that. If you fix then you have to fulfill it. But in the near future unless our alternate energy is available in plenty, India will not be able to make a declaration. But and also India's capability will depend on what kind of resources and what kind of technology we can get from the West. But the fact that this part, the western part we can call it that the other one is a Eastern part to make a difference between the two. So this idea of dealing with climate change and environment in general. It is quite clear that these four countries can work together very closely as a unique array of capabilities, knowledge and experience among all of us. So United States is very much involved in the Middle East. And as I said, it was the process of the United States initiated that resulted in the Abraham Accords. And it is expected that many more countries will establish relations with Israel. And here the one question is the Eastern Quad is suspected to be anti-Chinese. So is there an anti-China element in the Western Quad? It's something that we have to think about because China is getting closer to Iran. And so it's not only in the Asia Pacific but also on the surroundings of the Gulf. They see a threat in the new cooperation and agreement and projects between China and Iran. And this is a matter of concern to the Gulf countries because Israel has always been concerned about Iranian nuclear capability. And if there is one country which is willing to go to war with Iran on nuclear capability in Israel, nobody else wants a war. But Israel is very much against raising any of these sanctions against Israel, against Iran till Iran completely stops enriching of uranium. And it has to give up its path and the negotiations are not moving very well in Geneva and therefore there is concern. So it is possible that there is an element of China phobia, I think. Sinophobia, I shouldn't call it. The fear of China is also in this Quad. Of course it never came out, nobody spoke about it. But Israel has that concern and U.E. has that concern and we also have that concern and the United States of course. So it may be true to say that even though that is not a declared purpose of the new Quad, there is an element of China containment of China or at least build your guard against China. And as far as nuclear matters is concerned, Israel was very supportive of India's nuclear deal with the United States. And UAE has not only been close to us, it has also been, though it is not confirmed that UAE has been helping India, Pakistan to get together. Because nothing concrete has happened but we have heard rumors that UAE has been facilitating the back channel exchanges between India and Pakistan, which led to the ceasefire enforcement and also some other developments. But of late we are seeing increased terrorist activities in Kashmir, which has cast a shadow, but at least UAE has been helpful in bringing about some kind of a dialogue between India and Pakistan. So there are interconnected realities here. So Israel's support for nuclear India within the agreement, its opposition to Iran's nuclear policy, China-Iran cooperation causing concern to UAE also. And China has been active in UAE, they have made a lot of investment and much has been done by China. But there also they want to diversify and in relation with India as well as Israel. And of course United States, I think it is the most useful arrangement. Because we do not know the mechanism, what kind of laws, what kind of suggestions they will make. Basically they will have probably three trade agreements, either as a group or individually with these countries, that would be the basic thing. And when we talk of India and Israel and Middle East, we also have to think of terrorism, which is one of the greatest concerns that India has. As you have seen recently in the United Nations Security Council, we proposed a number of things relating to anti-terrorist activities that you have been pursuing. And in this anti-terrorism, both Israel and UAE have a big role. Because UAE is a very open country and prosperous country and can easily be victimized by some countries which are hostile to it. And also there are many possibilities of corruption and so on. And therefore they are very concerned, if you have an open society like that, just economically, they have concerns about terrorism also. And one of the reasons why UAE is not that close to Pakistan anymore and closer to India because of their fear that Pakistan might use terrorist tactics to deal with the region as a whole. So this Quad, in fact, deals with a lot of, you are killing several birds with one stone in that sense. Because it assures economic cooperation, it assures technological cooperation, it assures some kind of protection against China. And also it has the common links, the four of us trade talks, maritime securities of great interest. And so generally we are happy, I think that nobody seems to be criticizing this in India. And of course this is a new multilateral approach that India has adopted, that is where or possible we get into these groupings. I had to do some time ago questioning this wisdom of this because these groupings should have some homogeneity, that was my point. Because sometimes if you get into a group, as it happened in the case of Sark, for example, the commonality among Sark countries has disappeared because we have so many disputes among ourselves until we have Sark. APEC, India has not been able to enter because the countries are blocking India from going there. So where you need to go, you are not able to go. And then you go where you are not able to get anything out of it, like his CEO, Shanghai Corporation also. Again, when Afghanistan was discussed, they had an internal meeting between Iran and China and Russia. When we were also members of that group, so the group took one position and the group inside is CEO took another position. And then BRICS, not very effective. And it killed something called IBSA, which is already there, India, Brazil, South Africa. So these, what I call the alphabetic soup, all over the place, so many we are in. And now we are creating more. So I think we should think in terms of the sunrise correlations and sunset correlations. Because what happens is once you get into a coalition like Sark, no people are saying we must revive it. So these are embarrassing moments. And therefore, we have to be very careful. But as my view, but the general policy is to create these pockets of influence. And multilateral approaches. And that gives you ability to operate as a group. And not as India alone, but as Israel, UAE and the United States. That gives us greater strength in bargaining. That is the whole thing about group diplomacy, you know, like a non-aligned movement, G77. And these are these were weak countries at that time. So it was easier for India to speak in the name of non-aligned movement rather than as India. Because now we don't want to have that requirement. It has become, you know, important enough to stand on its own. But voluntarily, we are getting into these groups because of the ineffectiveness of the United States, United Nations, which has demonstrated during the pandemic. Of course, needless to say that in this quad also there are discussions about the pandemic, about the vaccines, about vaccine equity and so on. Israel had virtually vaccinated everybody. And India also has now surplus capacity to give to other countries. And China had given vaccines to UAE, but that has not been found very satisfactorily. Those who have taken the Chinese vaccine are now taking additional American vaccines in the UAE. So and these things were also certainly have influenced the thinking of this group. And India's own policies and priorities are shifting from South Asia to larger Asia Pacific, India Pacific, and also the Middle East. So we are very close to Middle East in the early days when Israel and Palestine were creative theoretically. And we had, but after that, very many things happened. The revolution, Arab revolution of spring and various other things and different kinds of governments came to power and that's still being sorted out. But Southeast Asia, of course, we have major interest and that is our neighborhood, but it's always good to have distant neighbors. You must have all heard about the Chanakya theory that is very difficult for you to have friendships with your close neighbors because they always have complaints, demands, all kinds of difficulties. Chanakya predicted it centuries ago and that we have seen ourselves. But those who are in the next level, next line of our neighborhood, the distant neighbors will be closer because we have no boundary disputes. We do not have the challenge of sharing resources, etc. And I think we are following Chanakya's theory that South Asia, let it be, we'll try our best to keep it together and work together and we have gone out of our way to be nice to all these Arab countries. But there is still dissatisfaction, still there is terrorism, still there is lack of trust. So all these are issues which have to be dealt with and therefore it might be good for us to expand ourselves a little bit. So now we have one quad in the Pacific, in the Indo-Pacific and the other in the Middle East and that is how we should see it. And it will certainly improve our own economic growth and China recognized Israel only in 1992 and Israel has systematically declined to export arms to China. So between them there is a certain amount of differences. So US in fact had asked Israel not to export weapons to China and there was some military ties between Israel and China that has been stopped. And China was not involved in any infrastructure projects in Israel. UAE also has been benefiting from Chinese investments but they are also diversifying it. So in a sense we can say that this quad had a logic of itself for all these countries to work together. And the developments between Iran and China had created problems for us also as well as for the Arab countries. So our cooperation in the petrochemical sector will be of great value in this. So considering all these political and economic considerations we can think that the new quad will be in our interest. But there will be many things to sort out. People are writing about the vast possibility of our being able to export to Europe via the Middle East. Maybe a little far away but the idea that to a Greek port we could send woods from India with the collaboration of UAE and Israel. And there are many things there are several projects which we are being mentioned are in the pipeline. So let's hope that this quad will be beneficial to all the four of us and the United States will maintaining its interest in this book. Because they also feel that instead of confronting China alone it might be useful for them to operate through these groups. So this is the change of sign of the times of several multilateral bodies helping shall we say the United Nations. It's not a competition with the United Nations but the general feeling that the United Nations is not able to pull its weight is a factor which promotes this regional cooperation because massively in the UN Charter there are provisions for regional arrangements. So this is not something which was not expected when the United Nations was set up. And so there is a logic in that and many of these groups are kind of registered with the United Nations. So they are taken notice of they even report that activities. So it's a certain amount of coordination but this is more practical to have these groups. And that is why India has one for this I don't know whose initiative it was maybe Israel maybe India maybe we maybe the United States. So in any case all the four people are dreaming the same even though they are in four different beds. That is the situation we have and this may perhaps be good for us and good for the world. Thank you very much. No it doesn't because the United States also support two states and even Israel doesn't rule that out. So there is no reason for us to change in this but then I think they are very globally avoided any discussion of political questions. Definitely economic advantages, spectrochemicals, infrastructure. As I said it was very well spelt out. They said the innovation of Israel, the money of UAE, the manufacturing capacity of India and the bad fridge of United States. So the areas have been very well defined and only new policies, new projects have to be devised. That is probability. Yes, our idea is to have a multi polar world from the bipolar we went to Unipolar and now we want a multi polar world. So the more partnerships that we create among like minded countries will help us to perhaps create a poll around us. That is our unspoken wish that when six polls are formed in the world starting with United States, open union, Russia, China, Japan and the six will be India. That's the unspoken expectation and for that we are going to be our friends. We are going to follow us. In South Asia it's difficult and therefore we may have to go far afield and that is probably what we have to do. That we have to see because this squad is not going to consider political issues. If anything this might only make Chinese even more worried about us because this grouping both UAE and Israel having an easy relationship with China. And therefore India going and joining that group may actually worsen the situation. But as I've spoken to you about China itself is going through an internal process and so they may not worry about it at this point in time. They are reorganizing themselves economically. But the tension with Pakistan and China I don't think this will have any particular impact. I think there was some talk of meeting in the Taliban in Doha. But so far there is no agreement. The only positive thing that we have been saying is that we are happy to provide humanitarian assistance. And once a modality is fixed as to how these assistance will be delivered and to whom India will be one of the first countries to go forward. That's all the only thing that we are doing on all political matters we are holding back and wanting to wait for others. Because originally three of those countries our embassy is there and no new country has gone there. Only China, Pakistan, Iran. So if there is a growth in that, that may be the time we may have to think in terms of that. But everybody is in touch with Taliban. And there is no lack of communication including us. So let's hope this will be for the good.