 a double dip of daily fantasy delight this weekend in Pocono for the NASCAR Cup Series. A couple of races lined up for Pocono, the Pocono Organics CBD325 on Saturday and the Explore the Pocono Mountain 350 on Sunday. We're gonna start break down both races from a DFS perspective, get you set from a strategy perspective and let you know my favorite drivers for Saturday's race to get you keyed up for what should be an exciting weekend for the NASCAR Cup Series. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down the Pocono double header this weekend from a NASCAR DFS perspective based on the rules and salary over at FanDuel.com. Lock for the Saturday race is at 3 p.m. Eastern on Saturday and lock on Sunday is at 3.30 p.m. Eastern. So we have the ability to fill out lineups now for the Saturday race. Sunday race we can't do until the Saturday race is complete. You could technically do it, but you shouldn't if you wanna fill out good lineups. But you'll have between the end of the race Saturday and 3.30 Sunday to fill out lineups because the finishing order on Saturday will tell us where everyone starts on Sunday. So what we'll do for today for the podcast is I will run through a strategy for both races first. Then I will go through my tier by tier breakdown for the first race after that. If you're listening to this on Sunday and you don't have a Saturday race there, I'll put the timestamp for when the Sunday analysis begins in the track breakdown part in the description up on NumberFire.com. So if you're listening after the Saturday race go to NumberFire.com, check out the podcast post or also I guess in the description on the podcast, on Apple or Spotify. Check out the timestamp there. Go to the strategy section for Sunday. We'll talk about what to look for there. I'm not gonna be able to rank drivers for that race because it depends a lot on where drivers start. It also depends on what they do during the Saturday race. So can't do driver breakdown there but can give you strategy to let you know who, what you should do for that race. So whole lot of stuff to go down for today but also a lot of stuff here on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. We have Austin Swain's UFC Vegas 30 podcast posted getting you set for the Saturday card, a 13 fight card he broke down, the five round main event but also all of his favorite plays in each salary tier over on FanDuel that is already posted as is the MLB DFS solo shot for the Friday slate. Check those out by searching for the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well. Hey soccer fans, this season FanDuel and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one of a kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's soccer pick-up, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple, all you have to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You'll earn free points or earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win with the $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDuel and enter the Captain Morgan's soccer pick-up today. Must be 21 plus to participate for more details as a FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the Captain. Let's talk about the track breakdown for this week and we'll start things off with Saturday, then go to Sunday. And the good thing is we got a good template of what to expect this weekend because they did run five double headers last year. So we know how to handle the second race which we'll run through in just a bit. The first race will feel similar to what we've done at road courses. That's where we find an assumed winner in tournaments but accept place differential where we can find it. The reasoning for that is that the race is similar to a road course in length. It is 130 laps, which means there are 13.0 points available on FanDuel for lap sled. That leads to reduced upside for drivers starting at the front of the pack. So we have an incentive to look for drivers starting deeper who can get place differential points. And for this specific race, we do have drivers who can get us that. Of the top nine drivers in aggregate average running position in the 550 horsepower package this year, four will start 15th or lower, two of them are outside the top 25. Two more drivers outside the top 20, starting outside the top 20, rank in the top 14 in aggregate average running position in this package. So we have drivers who should have speed starting further back on Saturday and that's what we want here. And those are the guys, those drivers in position to get place differential are the drivers we want for cash games and they are our core plays for tournaments as well. That doesn't mean you need to ignore the front because we always call this the assumption game for tournaments where you pick an assumed winner, the driver you think will win, probably Kyle Larson. And you lock them in no matter where they are starting because if they get you 43 points for a win, they're probably gonna be in the perfect lineup. I think there's been like one race since Fandals started offering stuff where the winning driver was not in the perfect lineup. I think it was like a restrictor plate or I guess pack racing race where there was a bunch of place differential, they're gonna be in there. It allows you to stack the back without passing up Kyle Larson, who is phenomenal. So you do wanna pick an assumed winner for tournaments at times. And Larson, not the only guy who can win there, he's just the most likely winner and the most obvious one. So using him as an example, but the overall thought process of picking an assumed winner is in play once again for this week. That's what we should want for Saturday. Get an assumed winner for tournaments and then accept place differential where you can find it outside of that, both for cash games and for your core for tournaments. For Sunday, it's the same where you do wanna accept place differential where it is available to you. It's just going to be available all over the place. They're gonna invert the top 20 finishers. So the winner on Saturday will start 20th. The driver who finishes second will start 19th. That means we are going to have drivers who we know have massive speed in the middle of the pack. And it's an amazing opportunity for DFS that we have to exploit. As mentioned, we have five double headers to look at from last year. And it means we have five races to look at with an invert. There were 25 drivers in perfect lineups across those five races. 21 of those 25 drivers started the race 14th or lower. That is so perfect. The ideal strategy that we want here for this race worked out with no flaws last year. You want to build around drivers starting in the middle of the pack or lower and make them your core, both for cash games and for tournaments. I mentioned they're 14th or lower. That part is relevant because drivers who finish outside of the top 20 on Saturday will start outside the top 20 on Sunday. And those drivers were often part of those perfect lineups. 11 of the 21 drivers who started outside the top 14 started behind the inverse. So finish 21st or worse in the first race. So despite having some sort of issue on Saturday, they paid off on Sunday. This increases the value of watching Saturday's race if you can. You want to identify drivers who may have finished poorly due to issues rather than speed, you know, bad stop, loose wheel, speeding penalty, stuff like that. You want to find drivers who finish better than their speed said they should have. If they finish poorly because they were slow, they'll probably be slow on Sunday too because drivers will use the same car unless they crash. But if you can buy low on someone who finished poorly due to circumstances outside of their control, take advantage and load up on them for the Sunday race. It is worth noting that a driver starting inside the top 10 did make four out of the five perfect lineups, but it was always just one driver inside the top 10. And that driver actually had a salary of $9,300 or lower each time. So it's weirdly the opposite of what you might expect. My guess is that it's guys who had decent speed who can maintain track position once they get it. You know, guys like Austin Dillon, Matti Benedetto, maybe not like the most efficient passers, but guys who can, they've got speed and they can keep it if you give it to them. So I am okay getting sprinkles of drivers you think might be able to hold their own starting up at the front, even for Sunday's race. But it's just one per lineup, just for tournaments. Your core for cash games and your core for tournaments should be leaning heavily on those drivers starting further back. As far as data to emphasize, for Sunday, lean heavily on what you saw on Saturday because again, the same cars, they're gonna be pretty similar to what we saw in that first race. But outside of that, I am just going to go all in on speed in the 550 horsepower package. We don't have any relevant races to look at from this year at big, fast tracks. So basically just want guys the speed. And if you look at the 550 package so far this year, that's gonna tell you who has been fast. If you look back at last year's races of Pocono, it's gonna feel kind of weird because, you know, like Kevin Harvick-Ranwell, he's been underwhelming to be generous in the 550 package this year as teammates have been pretty hideous, I would say. So I think it's important to put more emphasis on current form in the 550 package than track history, history at Indie, et cetera, et cetera, because things have changed a lot over the past calendar year. We'll talk plenty about drivers who fit that mold well in the tier by tier breakdown. So for Saturday, find an assumed winner, get place differential where you can find it. For Sunday, stack the middle and the back of the pack and get guys can get you place differential, maybe get sprinkles with someone up front who can maintain track position, but overall our core will be place differential outlets for both races, frankly. And we should have outlets available to us for both. So that is a reassuring feeling. So that is strategy for this race. Let's move now to the tier by tier breakdown for the Sunday race, again, or the Saturday race. Again, I'm focusing just on Saturday here because it will change a lot based on starting order for Sunday. So if you're listening to this on Sunday, you can listen for some thoughts, but it's not gonna be super concrete analysis and advice just because it does depend so much on what we see on Saturday and where drivers start. But for Saturday, the elite tier is Kyle Larson at $14,500 through Martin Truex Jr. at $12,500. Larson is the obvious assumed winner for race number one. He is starting the poll. He is at 19% in my win simulations to win and that's probably too low. Only one other driver though as win odds above 10%. Larson has had a top five average running position in all five relevant races so far this year. And he's always been good on big fast tracks, usually Michigan, but like that translates here as well. I have no reason to push back on Larson outside of where he's starting this race, which is on the pole. So Larson, you know, just do it. I think that from an assumed winner perspective, he can be your guy for sure. With that said, Denny Hamlin is a decent pivot. He is starting back in 10th, which means he has a tiny bit of place differential juice and he is awesome at Pocono. Six time winner here. He has won two out of four races in the 550 horsepower package at Pocono. He was runner up in another and he's been good, if not not great in the 550 package so far this year. So I think that if you're looking for a pivot off of Larson, Hamlin maybe that guy, we'll talk about one more guy in the second tier could be that guy. But Hamlin interesting as an assumed winner at $13,500. I'm gonna put Kyle Busch ahead of Martin Truex Jr. Despite the fact Busch is starting 10 spots higher. Busch has just been better than Truex in the 550 package. So even though Truex is starting 15th, I'm not as high on him as I expected to be entering this week. Just I haven't seen enough from him in the 550 package to be super enthused. So I'm gonna rank this tier Larson one, Hamlin two, Kyle Busch three, Martin Truex Jr. four. And again, that could change based on what we see during the Saturday race. The second tier is Kevin Harvick at $12,000 through Joey Logano at $10,000. There are two guys in this tier starting super deep in the pack who you wanna build around. Those guys are Chase Elliott and Ryan Planey. Elliott is starting back in 29th. He got disqualified last week, which is why he's starting so low. But grades out well, he finished fourth in the second Pocono race last year. He enters with two straight top five finishes in this package and he was also runner up in Charlotte. So really good form for Chase. I love him here at $11,000. Planey is a former Pocono winner. Did that back in 2017. He has not finished top five cents, but he has been good enough in this package for me to have a lot of confidence in him. He won in Atlanta. He had a top eight average running position in both Vegas and Kansas. Planey is 10-3, starting back in 27. Between these two guys, I would rank Elliott higher, but I want a lot of both often in the same lineup. And I think that for cash games, you plug in Chase, plug in Blaney, then go from there. They are the top two guys of any salary for Saturday's race. Brad Keselowski is starting 18th. I would also mention him as a place differential guy. He has been better in this package than the 750 package this year, which is the inverse of his teammate, Joey Logano. I feel like they've done it where Keselowski is all out for 550. Logano is all out for 750, and then Blaney's kind of like the hybrid guy. It seems like that's the way Penske broke this year. I'm not sure if it was intentional or if I'm just reading too much into it, but it kind of feels like that's the way they've broken for this year. I'd also mentioned William Byron as a potential assumed winner at 11-5. He gets the access to Hendrick at just 11-5, race winning upside. So if you're looking for pivots off of Larson, I think that Hamlin and Byron are the top two guys I would turn to to potentially do that. I would rank this second tier, Chase Elliott-1, Ryan Blaney-2, Brad Keselowski-3, William Byron-4, Kevin Harvick-5, and Joey Logano-6. Harvick's been better, but just the speed and the 550 package, not quite there enough for me to get super enthused about him. The mid-range is Alex Bowman at $9,500. They're Matt DiBenedetto at $8,200. Bowman, Tyler Redick, and DiBenedetto are all starting 13th or lower for the Saturday race. So they could get you some place differential points. I am pretty intrigued by Redick. It's not a track you'd usually associate with him. So it's not like a situation where I feel like Redick is gonna benefit from it, but he's gonna have speed because he had a top 10 average running position in both Kansas and Charlotte. Both those tracks are multi-group tracks, but RCR cars have speed and they typically have really good pit strategy, which is a plus here. So Redick, despite not being a track you would associate with him, I think he's interesting for this week. DiBenedetto is starting 21st. He ran really well in this track type last year, both in Pocono and in Indy. He has been good enough in the package this year for me to like him. So I'd rank him a smidge ahead of Redick and a smidge ahead of Bowman, but I'd rank this tier DiBenedetto one. I would go Redick two by a hair over Bowman, but all three, definitely interesting. Christopher Bell four, Kurt Busch five. I'm a bit skeptical of Bush's raw speed for this week, which is why I'm okay being a bit lower on him. The value tier is Austin Dillon at $8,000 through Ross Chastain at $6,000. Chris Buscher starting 25th in this tier and I like what he could do from that spot. He is technically a former Pocono winner that happened because of a well-time rainstorm. So don't count that in his favor, but what does count in his favor is his performance in the 550 package so far this year. Buscher ranks 13th in aggregate average running position across the five races. He had top 10 marks in both Homestead and Atlanta. Those tracks both have a lot of tire wear. Pocono does not. So it's not like a super great track to look at, but I do think Buscher will run well here because of the speed Roush Family Racing has had at the 550 package so far this year. I wanna try to be overweight on Austin Dillon. He's starting in 12th, so doesn't quite fit the place differential mold, but he's got speed. He ranks 10th in aggregate average running position in the 550 package that's ahead of Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano. That may seem odd. Maybe it'll make it seem like the idea of putting weight on that is flawed, but I think it makes sense. He also has the best ranking in that metric above anyone with a salary under $9,500. He is $8,000. So I think that Dillon will be a good contrarian pick to pivot among the value plays. I have wood for cash gains, favorite Di Benedetto and Buscher, but I think that Dillon is someone I wanna try to be overweight on for tournaments because I think the speed should be good for him on Saturday. I'll rank this tier, Buscher won Dillon two, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. three, Ross Chastain four, Eric Jones five and Eric Amarola six. I have not seen enough in the 550 package out of either Eric, Eric Jones or Eric Amarola to like them even though they're starting outside the top 10. So I'd rather take Swipes and Stenhouse, Dillon, Chastain than load up on either Eric, just because I don't think the speed necessarily will be there for them for this week. The punting tier is Daniel Suarez at $5,800 on down. And honestly looking at this year, it's not great. There's nobody here I'm super jazzed about. I want to be more balanced in order to avoid this tier. But three guys I am willing to consider are Daniel Suarez, Ryan Newman and Bubba Wallace. Suarez is mostly based on strategy. His crew chief Travis Mack knows that this team is not fast kudos to him for having some self-awareness. So he does some quirky stuff to get track position and it can work. So with strategy mattering more in Pocono than other places, I think that Suarez actually is kind of interesting. I'll take Swipes, he's starting 14th and not like a place differential guy, but I'll take Swipes in tournaments. He also does have RCR power. Talked about liking Redick and Dylan that should apply to Suarez as well. Newman occasionally has speed in the 550 package. He finished seventh in Homestead. He was 13th in Atlanta. He's $5,300 and starting 19th. It's not inspiring, but it can work. So I guess I'm okay with Newman down there. And Wallace is pretty similar to Newman where he has occasional speed in this package. He ran well in Charlotte. It's another track with low tire wear which could bode well for him. Bubba's run well at Indianapolis in the past though. That was with RPM and they had an affiliation with RCR. So we talked about Dylan and Redick, Suarez having speed. Wallace benefited from that speed last year and is not with that team anymore. So I would say that nobody in the punting tier is like worthy of core consideration. You wanna be above this for your core but sprinkles of Suarez Newman Wallace as potentially being low exposure plays for tournaments who can get you wiggle room to get back up in the upper range more often. Let's finish up here at Picks to Win. Last year I did Picks to Win for both Saturday and Sunday. Kinda doesn't matter what order they're in but let's do it anyway. Definitively winning Saturday. Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman. If we do one above 10,001 below it I'm pretty sure Bowman's been the pick below 10,000 like every race this year when Byron hasn't been down there. So why not we'll run it back. Larson and Bowman the Picks for Saturday. For Sunday, we'll go Hamlin above those at $10,000 or higher just because I think the speed should be good. Knows how to get around this place. Knows how to pass at Pocono. We'll take it. And then the guy below $10,000. I kinda wanna have some fun with this one because like again Bowman is the one who's highest in my win simulations followed by it looks like Reddick and then D-Benedetto, Busher. But let's have some fun. Let's pick Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He's at the speed this year. And if you give him track position on Sunday he might be able to hold it. So we'll go Hamlin and Stenhouse on Sunday. Larson and Bowman on Saturday as our picks to win for the Pocono double header. That is all the time that we have here for today should be a fun weekend. Getting two NASCAR Slates in one weekend gonna be a blast. I'm looking forward to Sunday especially because again we don't get chances where we have clear place differential outlets in a race where we want place differential that often. So to me these second races double headers are one of the best plus EV races we have the entire year for NASCAR and it's the only one we have for this year. So looking forward to filling out lineups for that one. If you have questions for me on Twitter I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast reminder once again to check out Austin Swain's UFC podcast for UFC Vegas 30 that is posted now. Also the solo shot up for the Friday Slate. Find that by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts. No matter where you get your podcasts you can find us. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you both on Saturday and on Sunday. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire.