 Right, good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, welcome to this month's non-farm payrolls webinar on Friday the 2nd of October with me, Michael Huston, and my colleague in Toronto, Colin Suzinski. And our latest look at the variations, I think we can call them, for the September payrolls report and whether or not the Fed will be minded to raise rates at the October meeting, which we will also be doing a preview for on the day in question at 3pm. I can't remember the exact date, maybe you can help me out on that Colin. Just look it up. But for the here and now, there's a risk warning for your general consumption. It's Wednesday the 28th I think. It's Wednesday the 28th, so we're basically previewing the FOMC meeting on the 28th of October. You can sign up for that on the website where we'll discuss the likelihood of the Fed raising rates or not. I'm still in the not camp and Colin's still in the yes camp, so I'm sure that will continue, that debate will continue for the next three or four weeks, I'm sure, because we're both stubborn, neither of us likes to admit we're wrong. And I think we've had a lot of conflicting data. I mean, even yesterday we've had conflicting data where we had the weak ISM and we had the strong construction spending. And there's been a lot of reasons for both of us to come to these conclusions. So there's been a lot of conflicting comments, conflicting data throughout the year. And so that brings us to today's non-farm payrolls figure where the street's expecting just above $200,000, but really as long as you're within, I think it's going to be a pretty wide margin and you'd have to have something really extreme, I think, to knock anybody off of their opinions, whether it's Michael or myself or the Fed, to change what course they're currently on. I mean, I certainly think from the narrative that we've been getting from Fed speakers over the past week or so, I think it's becoming increasingly evident from my view of the situation that there's a wide range of views amongst Fed speakers on whether to raise rates. And that would suggest that the FOMC collectively has about as much idea of when to raise rates as we do, which is not much. And I think that's really the concern at the moment. Now I'm just being asked a question here. The first US rate hike has been pushed progressively further out, which should support this US market. Yeah, that's a good question. Harvey, the US market is correcting down. What's our view and what's happening on the direction ahead of the Fed decisions? I think basically what I'm being asked here is easier monetary policy should actually be supported with stocks, and actually that's not proving to be the case. Do you have a view on that? I do. We've had a big, big change since the last Fed meeting. The people really were expecting the Fed to raise interest rates in September, and when they didn't, and when we got the forecast of negative interest rates, it really threw people for a loop. And we've had a real change in trading over the last couple of weeks since then. And that is that it used to be people would go, okay, great, weak data, Fed stays on stimulus mode, hip hip hooray, great for markets. But now people are going, well, the Fed didn't raise interest rates, what's wrong? What's wrong with the US economy? What does that mean for resource demand? What does that mean for corporate earnings? So we've gone to the, we've actually, markets have turned on their head in the last couple of weeks, and now the market is taking a negative reading of anything dovish, of misses on economic data, of any bad news that they're taking markets down, and anything that looks hawkish promoting an earlier rate hike has been taking markets up. So we saw that most clearly yesterday when we had the overnight, the markets started out pretty good. Pacific had a good morning, Europe had a good morning, even early trading in the US was positive, and as soon as we saw that weak ISM number came out, kaboom, the markets went down a couple of hundred points. And so we're watching for that as we go into how could the markets react to today's report. I think if you get within a reasonable amount of 200K on either side, it probably won't move the markets much. But if you do get a big miss, you could get a big drop. Yeah, and I think there's also something wider at play here as well. People are sort of obsessing about the US economy, and whether or not the US economy can withstand a minor, a small rate rise. But this ceased to be about the US economy five years ago, when the Fed pumps nearly $4 trillion worth of dollars into the global financial system. And from that point in, suddenly the Fed became not only the US central bank, but the world's central bank. So ultimately, they have a duty of care to the rest of the global economy, the amount of money that's sloshing around in emerging markets, the amount of dollar loans that not only corporates took out, but also countries took out to finance their debt at low, very, very low interest rates. And ultimately, the Federal Reserve not only has to consider what the US economy is doing, but also what effects a rate rise, potential rate rise could have on the global economy. And that is a problem of its own making. Furthermore, I think what's happened, and I don't think we can underestimate the impact this decline in commodity prices has had not only on economic conditions around the world, but also on certain companies within the US economy, namely the manufacturing sector, the shale production, the squeeze that Saudi is putting on these companies' margins as a result of driving oil prices lower, and also the VW scandal. We've seen what's happening with Glencore, the hits to margins on mining companies, oil companies, Volkswagen as well, and overseas investors. Saudi Arabian monetary authority is basically withdrawing money from the global equity market, which means that Middle East investors who've been one of the largest buyers of equities over the course of the last five years are pulling back. So even if you are getting an improving economy, you still need people to go in and buy equities. And we've seen massive hits to Sama, Qatar has taken massive hits to its Glencore and VW holdings. There's a good possibility that they could start pairing back. So that feeds into a wider narrative. What's going to support these markets in the longer term if some of the biggest investors are now starting to revert to cash? So I think that's another reason why we're finding that markets are an awful lot more unbalanced, if you like, because I think the liquidity is starting to become a little bit less. Some big name investors are cutting down on their holdings, and as such, we're seeing a little bit of a sell-off. Now, we're not in bear market territory yet, but I think the numbers are less important, the non-farm payrolls numbers are less important than the overriding direction to travel, and obviously US earning season, which starts next week. So I think in the context of what we're seeing thus far, I'm not convinced one way or the other, whether a good or bad payrolls number will have that much of an effect, as Colin just said, on whether people think the Fed will raise rates in three or four weeks time than if they won, for that very reason. So... Yes, absolutely. And we're still in the crunch here. We're still getting close to what I call the end of the weakest seasonal period of the year for the markets, which runs from mid-August to mid-October, and we're getting close to the later innings of that now. Now, we may end up stretching out a little bit longer into earnings this season this time, and particularly with the Fed meeting, not till the end of the month, but there are going to be more factors starting to come in at play. And I agree with Michael completely. We've definitely seen a lot of outflows of former supporters of the market, and the high volatility we're seeing, certainly in Glencore and Volkswagen and in other companies, even I saw there was one day a free port had fallen at 10 percent, and so we are getting a lot of volatility, particularly in the resource sector still. Right, yes. So let's look at the numbers. We're talking about the U.S. economy and how the U.S. consumer feels about or how confident the U.S. consumer is, and certainly what doesn't square with me, and I think this is a little bit of a concern, is U.S. consumer confidence that still remains at very, very high levels, and yet when you look at retail sales and you look at durable goods, there's no real correlation between the two. We saw a very weak consumer confidence number in July, a 93.4, and retail sales actually rose 0.7 percent, which was actually a fairly decent number. In fact, if you look at the retail sales numbers in the past three or four months, they actually haven't been too bad. But when you actually look at durable goods, it's a slightly different story. Now, durable goods are much higher ticket items. This is core durable goods. It strips out transportation, so it strips out the bowing effect, if you like. And if you look at durable goods, we're talking about white goods here, TVs, big screen TVs and what have you. It's negative. It's negative for this year, which suggests to me that, okay, auto sales may be doing well, but certainly on the bigger ticket items, the U.S. economy isn't exactly what I would call firing on all cylinders. And when 70 percent of your GDP is made up of U.S. consumer spending, that's got to be a worry, wouldn't you say? Definitely. I think so. And yes, and I think we're seeing that in the way that stocks have leveled off through much of this year. I mean, our peak for the year was back in April, I believe. And we had actually seen things level off for quite a while. The other interesting thing I am keeping an eye on with regards to this is what's going on in the China markets right now as well. The one thing we have seen in the middle of the talk of the big slowdown is it does look like there's signs that the Hang Seng is starting to bottom out here, which is intriguing. But you're right, Michael. A lot of areas in the U.S. economy have definitely been sluggish. I'm looking at the ADP here. We saw a very weak number last, well, we've been trending higher. From a low base, we saw a quick drop in July to 169 and 186 and now 200. Those numbers on Wednesday were slightly better than expected, but there was a downward revision to August and July as well. So net and net, they were neutral. The big question here is whether we get an upward revision in August and whether we get a number above 200,000 for September. So certainly if you look at the trend for non-farms, from the peaks that we saw a year ago, it's been pretty much a mixed bag. And then we've seen a very sharp drop here from 245 to 173. So that was a big worry because we were expecting 225 last month and we got 173. So we missed by quite a long way. So let's look at some of the key levels that we need to be watching when these numbers come out. Dollar yen in particular is something that we really need to watch. And I'm looking at this triangle here, ladies and gentlemen, if we get a slightly dollar positive number, so that's anything above 200, we should get a move back to around about 121, but we need to break this resistance level on the top side. Get a poor number and do something in the region of 170, then we'll test 1935, 1940. Those are the margins on dollar yen. I'm not expecting a breakout either side unless we get a significant, you know, a significant beat one way or the other. So that would be 250 on the upside or, you know, below 100 on the downside. You know, that's essentially what I'll be looking for here. One thing I have noticed though and this is something that I want to talk to our Canadian clients about is this on dollar CAD. That looks a very negative signal. Dollar negative, Canada positive. So, you know, certainly in the context of what we've seen over the past few days, I think dollar CAD could be building up for a bit of an aggressive decline down. That's not to say that we can't go back all the way to 134, but this bearish and golfing day here would be here to suggest that maybe dollar CAD longs are probably the wrong way to be. And certainly I think that's probably reflected in the cash positioning that we've got at the moment. It's 9% up on the day at 64% long, 36% short. So certainly the bias is towards the rally at the moment which might suggest if we get a bad US number we could see a move lower. If we look at yields again, that's going to be a very significant thing to watch. Look at the two-year yield or the two-year price on government bonds at the moment on the two-year. Can I mention something on CAD and Michael? Go on quickly. Flipping this over on CAD US dollar, it's 75 cents is the big round number. It's trading around right now. It is holding it right now. We'll be watching an eye on that as well, as we look at the $340 on dollar CAD. Right. Prices were pretty much near the top of the price range at the moment with respects to prices, which means that yields are at some of the lowest levels. And they're not as low as they have been this week. I'm certainly at the end of September. But certainly expectations for a hike are not being reflected in the bond market at the moment. Certainly not on the two-year. Let's look at the key support levels on the German DAX because I think that's very important. And I think we do need to be aware of that. This support line here comes in from the 2012, 2011 lows. Those of you who watched my video this week will probably already know that. But again, that's something that I'm looking at. So a negative number, keep an eye on that support level around just below 9,000, the 9,300, 9,400 level. We're almost a minute away. UK 100. Again, quickly have a look at this support line here. Resistance above around about 62.70, 62.50. And S&P, quickly S&P, running out of time here. I want to get these numbers in. Again, we're slap bang in the middle of the range at the moment. So probably wouldn't touch that. It could go either way. But it does look as if we could start to move higher on a positive number. So a positive number should be positive for stocks, which has been a slight diversion from what's normally been the case. Support levels in the cable, around about 151.20, 151.30. Resistance around about 152.20, 152.30. And in the meantime, I will now be quiet and we will wait for the numbers to come out in five seconds. So here we go. 142. No, that's a bad number. That is a bad number. Let's look at the revision. Look at the revision. Look at the revision. Revision 136. Oh, that is nasty. So that's definitely very dollar negative. Look at dollar yen go down. So remember what I said about that move lower, that resistance support level around about 1935. So that's going to be a very, very key level. And it's certainly, I think, going to come under significant pressure. That's going to be positive for gold. You've got to think it's going to be positive for gold, that particular number. Gold is already been falling. U.S. dollars markets are in free fall off of this. So we need to keep an eye on the support levels on the various stock markets, certainly the S&P. And now that's starting to track lower again, as we suspected it probably would do if we got a bad number. I mean, I think we can safely assume that that's pretty much next, an October rate rise. Colin, yes, no? I think it's definitely making it a much tougher case for the Fed to raise in October. No question about it. That's weak. And now I have said it would probably take below 100 to knock them off course, but these downward revisions aren't very good either. No, they're pretty poor, aren't they? I mean, I think more than anything, if you look at the change in the private payrolls, I'm just going to show you my Bloomberg terminal here, ladies and gentlemen, this month's revised down to 100, and the 118 is even lower than the non-payrolls. And look at the two-month payroll net revision, minus 59. The change in private payrolls is 118, and we're expecting 197. The change in manufacturers is down 9,000. So the unemployment rate has unchanged at 50. And look at the participation rate, 62.4. There's nothing good about this payrolls report. You've got unemployment rate of 5.1. It's remained exactly the same, and yet the participation rate has dropped to 62.4. Now, if the unemployment rate had dropped to 4.9, for example, and the labor participation rate had dropped, you could sort of make the argument for that. But the fact that the participation rate has fallen and the unemployment rate has stayed the same suggests to me that the unemployment rate is actually stickier than we think it is. Would you concur with that? Colin? Yeah, the unemployment rate is that. That's interesting how it's holding pretty steady here. Yeah. So we're at the participation rate. The participation rate fell again. So that's where we're seeing the differential here, is people leaving the workforce completely. Yeah, I mean, I find this incredible, this number. The fact that we got such a significant downward revision when everyone was expecting a higher revision, you know, I thought things were bad. And some of the numbers that we were getting out of the U.S. were understating it. But actually, this is probably worse than I thought it was. And to my mind, I really cannot see the Fed hiking in October. And potentially, I can't see them hiking in December, either. Certainly, and not unless we get a significant improvement in some of these numbers. Because the average earnings data as well, that was disappointing. We were expecting an increase to 2.4, back to the Bloomberg again here. So there's no inflation. The jobs market is now starting to slow down. Commodity prices are remaining weak. October was supposed to be a live meeting. It's dead. And I think December is pretty much dead as well, unless we get a significant change in sentiment, change in the glide path of the data. Maybe I'm being premature. I don't know, Colin. What do you think? I mean, I know you've been fairly probably a lot more bullish than I have. But I can't see any upside in this report at all. No, this is a very weak report. And the downward revisions are what's particularly crashing on this. And I've already been saying, I think the Fed would have a hard time going in December, because I think the budget negotiations in the debt ceiling is all going to get kicked off to December. And I don't think they're going to be able to do with that anyway. So really, for me, it's been more of a case of October or not till January. And so this certainly is going to make it, I think it's going to make it pretty tough for them to go in October. Now, what will be interesting is later today, Fed Vice-Chair Fisher is supposed to be speaking. And he's been pretty much on the bandwagon of October is live. We're still looking at raising rates this year. Let's see if he changes his tune after seeing these numbers. I'll be very interested to see what he has to say. Yeah, I mean, as I say, I've been negative about, not negative, but I haven't been nearly as vocal about a rate hike this year. I think it's pretty much off the table now. So really, we've got to look at... It's going to be tough for them to do it now. It's going to be pretty tough. So now what are we looking for on currencies? Well, currencies, I think the dollar is going to come under pressure. We've already seen that in dolly yen. Probably not so much with respect to the euro. Certainly, given some of the data that we're seeing in Europe this week and the fact that we're starting to see a slow down there. So people are speculating about further measures from the European Central Bank. But I think, undoubtedly, there's so many dollar longs out there that I think the likelihood is we're probably going to move back towards 115 on euro-dollar. I think there's probably more upside risk on euro-dollar than there is downside risk. And certainly this 113 level that we're talking about in the highs of two weeks ago, if we crack through this, this resistance level through here, then I think the bias remains with respect to euro-dollar buying the dips, looking for any... Also, Michael, on this rally, we're getting in euro-dollar this morning. We're getting a golden cross on the moving averages. The 50 is moving up through and we're getting a lift on the RSI up above 50. So we are getting some good confirmation on this upturn here in euro-dollar. This is what we're talking about here. One thing I would say about that, Colin, is you need to be a little bit careful about that because the 200 is actually pointing down. I'd be more confident about that if the moving average was starting to turn up like an end on a piece of paper. It's starting to curl up at the moment. It's pointing down. And I think the reason it's pointing down is because of the sharpness of the fall that we've seen in the past 18 months from the highs at $139.90 to the lows that we saw earlier this year. But ultimately, I think that we... If we've seen the bottom in euro-dollar this year, and I think there's potential for us to probably trade pretty much in the range that we've been in, bottom of the range around about $110, $111, top of the range between $115 and $116 perhaps. But overall, I think the bias is more to the upside than the downside. And I think that the same is true for the pound against the dollar as well. You can talk about speculation of a bank of England rate rise, ladies and gents, but I don't think we're going to get one, certainly not anytime soon, which suggests to me that we could well get a push high here. Now, this looks fairly constructive for a move back to the highs at $156. Certainly we've seen one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine successive down days for cable. I think we're well overdue. I move higher here. And I certainly think that the fact that we've managed to hold above this $151.20-30 area suggests that the bias is probably going to be more to the upside than the downside. And I'd only really change my mind on that if we drop below $151. But certainly look at the oscillator. It does appear to be showing some signs of bottoming out. It's not a definitive signal. We also want to be looking at the way the price action is going here. And this looks a little bit like a source or bottom. I don't know whether you agree there, Colin, with resistance around about $152.20-30 through these series of highs through here. So if I draw in a line through there, we're probably looking between $152.20-30. So I mean, if you look at these levels here, you've certainly got a good area of resistance through those levels there. And I think if we can sustain and move through this area of resistance, congestion resistance here, then I think there's a good chance we can probably push back towards $153.00 again, $153.30. Yeah, I think you could be setting up for a nice pop in cable here. I do think that the UK will probably hold off on raising rates. I had always said they'd probably wait until the Fed did it to give them a better to go. And certainly pushing the Fed off will probably push them off. But I also noticed construction PMI for UK was pretty good this morning. Yeah, 59.9. Yeah, so we should. I think with, as the other currencies, rebound against the dollar cable certainly could as well. So let's have a quick look at gold. By the way, ladies and gents, jump in and ask questions, ask away. It's what we're here for. So looking at gold, we did push below this downtrend line and we were below it when those numbers came out. The fact that we haven't been able to sustain and move below it means that essentially this trend line is intact. I mean, you may not have been thinking that if you were basically long and the market was below it, but this is a daily chart. And generally sometimes you need to be a little bit flexible in your rules when you're looking to run stop losses. But certainly in the context of this move slower here, I think the big support level on gold remains at the September lows, which is just below $1,100 an ounce. But certainly, I think certainly after this number, I think gold should, and I use the word should, find the downside fairly limited. I agree. I've been getting increasingly bullish on gold over the last couple of weeks since the Fed meeting because I think the market had priced in a fairly aggressive rate hike program out of the gate. First of all, just the one or two rate hikes this year, but then continuing onward as we had seen in the past. And even from the Fed meeting when they were talking quite seriously about one and done for a while, that that was already looking at the U.S. gold started to rebound and it was already looking like the U.S. dollar had already priced in more. I think the U.S. dollar had priced in the first rate hike since March. So as this keeps getting pushed out now, that huge massive rally we had seen in the U.S. dollar through 2014 in the first part of this year is looking increasingly overdone. Similarly, the flip side of that is the big sell-off we saw in gold looking increasingly overdone here. And it does look to me like gold has turned the corner and with the U.S. dollar set to weaken, the gold could have a nice rebound over the next while. Yeah, it certainly looks that way. And I think you would expect with a weaker dollar that commodity prices would rally. It's not happening. The only gold is rallying and palladium is rallying, but if you actually look at the industrial metals and you look at crude prices, the exact opposite is happening. We were in slightly positive territory just before those payroll numbers came out, but now look at Brent Crude. That's looking soft once more, certainly in the context of this chart here. And you can actually probably throw a blanket over this particular chart here because once we remove this trend line here, we're trading in a sideways range and we're not really going anywhere. $50 on the top side, $46, $45 on the downside. This is probably our new range for Brent Crude. I don't think it's likely to go anywhere anytime soon unless we see a significant disruption to supply out of the Middle East or maybe there's a hurricane that hits the Gulf of Mexico. I know there were some concerns about hurricane Joaquin. I think I said that, right? Yes. But again, those fears have dissipated again. Crude oil is pretty much the same with respect to the range that we can throw a blanket over it over the course of the past few weeks, certainly in the context of the moves that we've seen since the end of August. You know, it's got fairly solid support around about $43 a barrel and resistance to the rallies are getting more stunted every time it bounces off that level, which I would suggest increases the risks of a correction lower. Just been asked about the US-30. Go on, Colin. I was going to say, especially after yesterday's failure, it looked like it was ready to break out and then it just turned back and then it was just beaten right back down again. So there's still a lot of bears out there overhanging Crude. Yes, I think so. Okay, let's look at the US-30 because this is a pretty uninspiring chart and then you look at the weekly chart and then you look at the 200-week moving average and you can see that despite the fact that we've come off quite significantly over the past few months, look at the uptrend that we've been in since 2009. We have now finally broken below it on a weekly basis, but we're now near the 200-week moving average and we've also got a little bit of support just coming in below 16,000 here from this line here. Now, I know that we spiked below it there, but that week was unique in so many respects. The 1,000-point move lower in the Dow. I mean, whether or not that was a fat finger or whatever it was, I really wouldn't like to hazard a guess, but what I do know is sometimes when you get moves like that, support and resistance lines don't matter that much and that's essentially why you sometimes have to protect yourselves with guaranteed stop losses. So you can't manage the risk for a move like that. Sometimes they happen and you get knocked out, but certainly in the context of this Dow move here, we are near a significant support level. The 200-week moving average is crucial. Once we went above it here, look at the way that it acts. It is resistance here and resistance here where my cursor is and then support there and then support there and support there. So over the past six or seven years, the 200-week moving average is a big, big level. So it stands to reason that if we get a move below it, then I would suggest all bets are off with respect to the Dow. Yeah, I was looking pretty low here. I've been thinking that it's going to retest these August lows even with the possible fat finger or whatever happened there because if we look at other markets, the DAX has retested its August lows, the Heng Seng has retested its August lows. The U.S. markets hadn't gotten there and my feeling has been that the markets that led the decline, which was that Asia Pacific fell first, Europe fell second, North America fell third, Asia Pacific bottomed first, Europe hit retested second and that the U.S. has still been waiting for the retest, which with this poor employment number, I think it's probably setting the market up for that and that could be in the next sometime this month. I think you're right. We're certainly looking at the lows in the S&P, which were at 1834, 1835. Then you've got the 2014 lows, which are around 1739 and that also happens to be where the 200 weak moving averages on the S&P as well. If you look at the way the U.S. markets have gone up over the course of the last six years, they've more than outperformed every other single global benchmark than probably apart from the Nikkei and that suggests to me that there's more scope for them to come lower, but it's probably not going to be a particularly smooth ride. We've certainly seen that reflected in some of the moves that we've seen over the past couple of weeks, two or 300 point moves in a day, up and down. The market can't make up its mind, but I certainly think this payroll's report hasn't made our job as traders any easier. I still think there's a likelihood of probably more bad news to come out of this defeat device scandal out of Europe and I think there's a possibility that other car makers could actually get implicated in it and I think in that context that could have significant consequences for the German GDP growth in Q4 given how much Germany relies on its car exports for its current account surplus. I think there's a lot of things circling right now that are on top of the auto scandal in Europe that negotiations with Greece are going to be ongoing. There's elections, there's the ongoing migrant crisis. There's a lot going on in Europe that's still going to keep things troubled in the near term. Something interesting I picked up here on sentiment. I put my guesses on the website in the United States and it's come back and at 190,000 I was 13th out of 54 analysts which means that certainly your 160, Michael, probably would put you right up near the top of that. But on top of that it shows if I was 13th and I wasn't that far below the street there was a lot of people that were looking for a much higher figure here and there's going to be a lot of disappointment out there today. I thought it would be low and I'm surprised. If you're bullish you can only imagine how these guys must be feeling if they were thinking they were going to get a decent number. I think that more than anything is the ultimate benchmark. So we're right on that dolly end support now. I'm around about 119.15.20. So it'll be interesting to see whether or not that breaks out. We've certainly had some evidence of failures around 119.1.20. So it certainly was something that keeping an eye on. But certainly I think if you look at the end of August there's good support around there on 118.60. But this triangle breakout to me suggests that the bias now remains for a move lower in dolly end. I think we're looking at that way because I think we're looking at quite a few things here in terms of the markets moving lower. I think we'll see a fairly significant decline in the US all over the next while. And I actually think that dolla cat could be quite decent trade. We talked about it earlier. The next support level is at 131. So is this the beginnings of a potential reversal in dolla cat? Yeah, I think so. I think it's interesting because if you look on the RSI you actually have a negative divergence as well which was on the dolla cat which is quite interesting here. And I do think you've probably seen dolla cat peak now and it can start to trend lower here. Yeah, and I think keeping on the weekly candle ladies and gents because I talked about a bearish engulfing day on the dailies. We look like we're going to get one on the weeklies and it's not just a bearish engulfing. It's a key reversal week because we made a higher high and the big question now is will we make a lower low on the week? So keep an eye on this weekly candle. If we close pretty much where we are now then I think the writing is on the wall for the rally in dolla cat and we could well over the course of the next few weeks and months start to come back down to around about 129. Yeah, that's certainly reasonable and you're right. I think we're going to see a lot of weekly big moves on the weekly candles with the way the markets are acting today. This is what I like candlesticks because they can tell you so much about overriding sentiment, which way people are positioned and this to me tells me that a lot of people are longer dollars and at some point they're probably going to have to start to bail and if for whatever reason we get a particularly dovish statement from the FOMC in three or four weeks time and I can't imagine it's going to be anything else then that could feed in on itself. Yes, definitely. I think the US dollar is looking really vulnerable here. So let's look at Fed funds expectations, shall we? Because it was. So basically this is the implied probability of Fed raising rates in October, December, January, March rather, and April. Previous to today's payrolls report there was an 18% probability that the Fed would raise rates this month. That has now dropped to 6%. In December it was around about 40 something. Let's just check the calculation here. So it's 18%, it was 41%. So look at how this has come in on this particular meeting. In December it was 42% a week ago. It's now 28% likelihood of a move in US rates in December. So this payrolls report has really shifted the dial. Yeah, absolutely, no question about it. Okay. All right, ladies and gents, I think we're going to wind this one up for this month. Don't forget we have a webinar on the Wednesday of the FOMC at the end of the month. Colin and myself will be doing a preview of it. Given what we know now, we probably know what the outcome is going to be. I think there's going to be less of a debate. I think there's going to be much less of a debate. I should have actually bet some Canadian dollars on no rate hike this year, Colin, and you'd have had to take me out to lunch. And you'd had to pay for your own flight. Yeah. Anyway, so that's it for this month, ladies and gents. We will talk to you again on the 27th or 28th of October. And if not, then at the October payrolls report. But I think given what we know now, I think the Fed rate hike debate has been finally put to bed for 2015. I'm concerned to look that way. All right. Well, thanks very much for listening in, ladies and gents. Thanks for your company. And we'll put this webinar on YouTube within the next 24 hours so you can listen to it back until next month or until the FOMC related this month. Thanks very much for listening from me and from Colin. Yes, thanks very much, everybody.