 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network You would think the sports world might chill out for like two seconds after the men's and women's national championships the past couple of days But oh no, we got the masters coming up on Thursday at Augusta and we're here to break it all down from all angles With branding and doula. He will talk about outright. He will talk about Augusta He will talk about the golfers. We have not seen in a while coming back to the masters for this week and talk about his favorite Bets over at Fandall sportsbook for Augusta This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Brandon good doula. You can find him on Twitter at Kedula 13 He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon Masters week is upon us. How you doing today? I Do great. I don't know How you could be doing poorly if you're a golf fan and it's masters week I know that there's a check out the forecast. Maybe that could be a bummer Yeah, I guess well not so bad. So thank you Dashed my hopes Jim welcome. That's what I'm here for You know, it's always important to know your role and I know that my role is to dash your hopes I will say that the rain odds for Thursday at least have gone down now a max of like 24% rain odds there I'm not gonna comment on Friday Saturday or Sunday only only only you could ruin the masters man That's again. No, your role. I do I know mine and I'm very comfortable in that role I'm on weather underground and just got an ad for Kentucky fried chicken nuggets. So like, you know, I know that's not gonna apply to you But like, you know, it's just I'm here to lift you up lift you up through any Any means possible? Hopefully we'll lift up the listeners by talking about some fun bets They can make for the masters breaking that down and getting you ready over at fan dual sports book But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are here every week day breaking down MLB PGA. We talked a lot of college basketball We'll talk everything across the course of the next couple of weeks talk some NFL draft betting as well with that thing So if you want to get those as they are posted to make sure you get the best numbers Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us over on the fan dual YouTube page If you want to play some DFS the masters fan dual has you covered with the PGA mega eagle Which is now a lot test your knowledge of the PGA tour by putting together a six-person lineup While staying under the salary cap and using the fan duals live scoring feature follow along as you compete for a share of $750,000 with first place taking home $150,000 all just a $15 entry fee whether it's household names like Tiger Woods Jordan speed etc Or some under the radar golfers you may like some golfers Maybe Brandon mentions today and the finishing positions and stuff like that There are plenty of options to help you fill out a lineup as you compete for first place Thursday will be here before you know it so submit your lineups today on fandal eligibility Restrictions apply go to fandal.com or download the fandal app for more details You want some DFS thoughts on the masters? We broke that down on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed yesterday also up on the fandal YouTube page if you prefer To watch over there now Brandon before talk about bets you like this week. It's important to start the baseline that baseline is stats Overall numbers and you've been doing a lot of digging into Augusta looking at which stats truly matter for this course Obviously golfer of strength is going to be number one at the list We won't go golfers if you're gonna bet them to win at a very tough track But what are you been doing this digging into Augusta specifically? What have you found? I thought you're talking like bench press and deadlift Short shuttle I think is is pretty high up there lots of strength At that rate, I mean, I think we got to get Rory then For short shuttle No for strength. I'm sticking to this the thing he said. What about Bryson? No, I thought about it, but no, that's the only angle to getting to Bryson for me I watched I watched like how Bryson got into shape. It's a lot of cable stuff But I can't see Rory doing like deadlifts and stuff So okay, so we're on Rory plus 750 you'd bet him down to two to one as a result of strength, correct You're the one who said strength matters I don't know if physical strength matters, but I'm just trying to interpret interpret interpret I Don't know trying to say I'm gonna hear you off to you. All right So it is a long course. So in a sense, you know physical strength probably does matter And one thing that we hear a lot of when it comes to Augusta National is that driving distance matters And I'm not gonna sit here and say that it doesn't help But driving distance alone is not enough per se to explain a lot of in-round scoring over over the years one of the hardest parts of You know breaking down the Masters is a lack of shot link data, but data golf has two years of shot link data from The Masters and usually we want to look at things, you know from a Four-round standpoint for guys who make the cut and try to figure things out from there But you know in this instance, I am taking it out on a round-by-round basis to grow that sample out and say, okay well You know if a golfer played, you know, you know had two strokes gained off the tee How much did that actually explain the rest of his game if the driving distance was you know 300 yards? like how much of that actually explains the in-round scoring so in That regard a lot of different individual rounds and so one thing that did stand out to me is that we Know we hear a lot. Well, I guess I'll stick with distance first. I was gonna talk about approach because it matters more But as far as distance, it's not really like as key in terms of how much it explains In-round scoring as we would like to see it only explains about 5% over the past two years of round-by-round data Whereas driving accuracy or fairways gained is how I actually free framed it in my in my model there 7% but stressing it off the tee is it 18% which is so pretty weak And it's not that big of a surprise because is that week relative to other courses or just we compared to other categories Good call. It's about typical for your average course, but it's not super Strong compared to other stats Just because there's more that goes into Into scoring then just hitting a good tee shot as we've probably all known from piping one down the fairway and then making But it also trickles down into archetypes of players You know some guys just hit it really far, but don't have complete games Which is why when Bryson was at his peak hitting it as far as he did and playing as well in other areas Like he was a phenomenal putter, you know strong enough iron player decent enough around the greens That's what separates him from someone like a Cameron champ And now now we have like Cameron young who nukes it but has a good like a complete game And that's something that's important But you know so you hear a lot about distance and it has to be you know these guys have to be long But you know take a look back at some of the past winners They're not all super long hitters and so I think that gets downplayed or over overstated a bit I think we can downplay it personally Not to say that doesn't matter But if you're looking for an off-the-tea stat stroking it off the tee issues has been more predictive Which isn't surprising but what's more important is that Augusta is known as a second-shot course And that's kind of what bears out from anyone you talk to talk about like any past players or current players Talk about the course they pretty much all say it's a second-shot course Which puts an emphasis on stroke skiing approach that number for stroke skiing approach the r-squared value with in round Stroke skiing total is 39% which is you know basically double more than double off-the-tea play It's just super important. We know that that's about typical for your PGA tour course as well, but Then we get into the putting in the short game and we know that the greens are really tricky They're really fast some of them are big overall It's a the overall the course has like slightly larger than average greens for the PGA tour, but putting itself is actually less it explains less of scoring at Augusta Then at your average PGA tour course and we actually see an uptick in the importance of Stroke skiing around the green so the numbers for the four stats are 39% for approach 27% for putting 26% for around the green and 18% for off-the-tea play so That's a 26 versus 19 for around the green play in terms of at Augusta over these past two years and the PGA tour So do you see that emphasis there and putting is actually down from 33 to 27? So Yeah, we good. We need good putters, but we're gonna see a lot of wedge play Matter for this week. So all that can be boiled down to don't overrate distance Make sure you guys can hit good approach shots and that they're not terrible With the short game which I said short game instead of just putting You can really roll that all up into like play the best all-around golfers who are just the best in the world But though I kind of wanted to tackle the the distance debate because I think it does get a little bit too much love Around this time of year. Yeah, so it still matters, but it's not the be all end all you don't need to be long to win here It's it helps. It's good. You'll always take it You'd rather be long than short, but it's not Everything especially based on you know, comparing it to other courses and stuff like that And it does sound like the big change as far as tweaks Well to other courses is a bigger emphasis on Chipping and making sure guys can get around the green pretty well In that regard the other key thing at play for this week is that we have a lot of golfers We have not seen in the PGA tour in a long time more back here Those are the live golfers who have been golfing on the Saudi back tour we've not seen them in a while and It can be tough to judge golfers relative to a field like this when we have not seen them been watching them Week in week out, so I want to ask you Brandon What process are you using to try to determine the kind of form these live golfers are in? When you put them back in a very good field here So I track round-by-round lift stats for simulations just because I knew that They were going to be in the majors And I wanted to be able to feel confident or at least have a baseline for how they're playing So that's I basically have treated this the same that I treat, you know, PGA tour DP world tour corn ferry tour So they get the same treatment that doesn't really help people because they don't have access to like my personal database But I would strongly recommend in this instance data golf Their true strokes game query tool Does account for things like field strength and you can just you know, click on Cameron Smith's name and pull up His results we don't have any granular data there with cam Smith in terms of how he's gaining strokes, which Is unfortunate? It's 54 holes It's I'm not like I'm not gonna speak too ill of the product It still is like professional golf. There are some big names in it, but it's not it's not 72 holes So you're gonna see more variants the finishing positions are finishing positions alone are impacted by variants in terms of Like who has a hot putter if you have a hot putter over three rounds You're gonna finish better than even over four rounds where you know if the rest of your games struggling that that separation is gonna grow So just looking at finishing positions is tough, which is why I recommend data golf because They will do the work for you and show how much better a particular player was Over those 54 holes on a round-by-round basis So a T a T12 might not be that much different than a T2 in a particular week. So That's kind of how I'm handling it frankly I'm not interested like it doesn't matter to me too much because I'm not interested in betting any live guys as for outright winners Yeah, there are a few I don't mind for like top 10 top 20 markets We'll get to them in a bit, but that's kind of that. I think we're gonna just like sum it up as do our best And You know if you if you're something type of person Who wants to play like a narrative angle and say that these guys are really motivated to prove something? I see the case for it, but I've heard conflicting reports Based on certain golfers camp Smith doesn't seem like it's an issue. I said no one's ever like been rude to him But walking Neiman for example was definitely want something to prove I guarantee you like Phil Mickelson has something to prove But you know just because I want to shoot a 72 doesn't mean that I'm breaking 80 that day So right these guys are built different But motivation can only go so far if the skill is is a big gap And it's important to keep in mind it is the master's motivation aside for everyone so I think that that matters too and I think that the key thing to reiterate there is a data golf field adjusted numbers are free So if you want to do your own digging and try to identify What kind of form these guys are in like let's say you have interest in a Cameron Smith at 24 to 1 You can look at his profile over on data golf for free and see that there So there are free tools available to us to help us bridge that gap And hopefully make better decisions there the live guys are not among the favorites for this week over at fan dual sports books Let's take a look at those right now Scottish. Yeah for the favorite. He is seven to one Rory McElroy is plus 150 John Rom is plus 950 nobody else shorter than 17 to 1 so Brandon when you look at these Outrides, let's start here with the big three How much win equity do they suck up in your simulations and are any of them actually undervalued at their current odds? So combined I have this trio of Sheffler McElroy and rom taking up 32 percent of the available wins That's roughly 10% each but not exactly and my specific SIM numbers are up on number fire But you know if you if anyone finds like a market like this it'd be about plus two 15 odds that that trio is the winner But my model specifically thinks that Sheffler and Rory should be eight to one And look, I don't like to bet stuff that my model doesn't say is a value But I don't think that's egregious if you want to get access to Sheffler or Rory It's not like it's saying these guys should be 12 to one and I'm saying it's fine to bet them at seven or seven and a half Rom though I have him at nine to one So That's kind of That's kind of interesting now at the end of our DFS preview for the masters that we did on Monday We do win picks which are not exactly like you can only pick this person for our on-air competition If you bet them and I picked Scotty Sheffler because I felt most terrified and I saw that it was close enough value for me To think seven is fine If I were to bet one of them It would be John Rom so long as the number remains right, you know plus nine hundred or better Rom It hasn't been that long ago that John Rom felt Unfaithable now it feels like it's kind of Sheffler who's unfaithable, but Yeah, it is a good chance that one of these three wins and if I'm betting any of them, it's gonna be wrong So you mentioned you have a nine-to-one based on your numbers so the implied odds there are 10% He is implied odds a fan dual sportsbook are nine point five percent So about a half percentage point of edge there I'm guessing based on discussions we've had and just general knowledge of the betting market and how slim outright value tends to be Half a percentage point is actually pretty decent as far as edges go, correct Yeah So I compare so the nine-to-one would be rounded Just makes it simple for me, but Yeah, I compare my win simulation model to You know the available odds and look at just the differential and percentage points point five is substantial I Have Rom at Let's see here This will sort About a point two percent boost which is Decent it's one of the one of the larger of the weeks because yeah finding finding pure value in golf is not super easy There is one name that jumps out with over a percentage point in terms of Variation which I like and we'll talk about him in a second, but yeah rom And I think too like anytime you can kind of get access to one of the favorites like a super favorite That's even reasonable I'm fine with it. So again, I don't mind I'm not gonna talk anyone out of betting Schaeffler or Rory, but if I'm betting one of them, it's going to be John Rom He mentioned there is a golfer who is showing a percentage point of value for you Who is that right now at Fandall Sportsbook? Yeah, it's tough because you like that's a lot And at a certain point if anyone's trying to build out a model and they see a huge Differentiation, where did I make a mistake? Yeah, like generally because Someone's wrong. It's either you or like the odds that you're looking at and yeah You can be as confident as you want, but you should always be willing to think that maybe you're the one with the issue, but I Feel good with this one because this particular golfer has been top 25 for like Let's see 7 straight starts Has pretty good form at Augusta finishing 10th 5th 38th 10th and 35th And that's Tony Fino At 24 to 1 my model has him at 19 to 1 He was as long as I think I think you got to 32, but he was sitting at 29 over the weekend for sure. I Don't really know how you nitpick Fina out this number It's He's someone with a length like which again, it's not like oh, he's just long off the tee and everything else is bad He's a great iron player He's a good putter now, which is very very intriguing The one knock you can have is maybe the up-and-down game the the the around the green game But we've seen Fina with three top tens at Augusta So we see him building a lot of course knowledge he's knocking on the door of Good form without like super high finishes and we talk about this sometimes when I come on here and talk about betting Top tens and like top fives shift a golfer's Win odds not probability, but like the odd the sportsbook odds more than they should and it's something like a top 17 top, you know or T 17 like T 17 T 19 T 24 T 20 T 14 that's not moving the needle as much. So we're actually getting some drift on Fina From where it should be at least according to my model. So I think Fina was a great play That's not a guarantee Guaranteeing a Tony Fina win is not a smart decision ever, but there's a lot of value if we you know If my process which remains the same for a long time and has been good to me Has any any value here? You know again 24 to 1 to win a Fandall sportsbook. We mentioned the good finishes at Augusta It's important to reiterate that one of those the the first he 10 was his debut year After it looked like he had obliterated his leg in the part 3 contest Like he rolled his ankle and it's like one of the most disgusting things I've seen in my entire life He played through it and finished top 10 and it's been good since then and I would say Tony Fina's form now It's probably better than it's been for any year entering Augusta if I had to guess just because he's been so sick They're the past calendar year. So 24 to 1 I think makes a lot of sense So showing value on Rahm and Fina Rahm plus 950 Fina 24 to 1 any other outrides? You're eyeing or is that gonna be the end of the list for you? So again, I don't know if I'm actually gonna get the wrong myself But I'm open to it and I'm also open to like, you know It's the masters and I think that it's a pretty tight core of guys who can actively win this thing So I'm add two more names. We're not long shots at all. They're my low-key low-key fellas who are also friends I know I know JT and speed's got all the love on full swing, but Xander Schauffland Patrick Cantlay our buddies and that's drama makes for a good makes for good TV But Xander 25 to 1 and Cantlay 19 to 1 They both have really good all-around games, which is why a lot of mathematical based models like them a lot I know which is why my model, which is just based on the math likes them a lot Xander might have some demons to overcome With his close call, but he has three top 20s to top threes over the past four years Mr. Cutty year ago as for Cantlay like Another golfer who's probably not getting as much love as he should just because Frankly, I don't know. I mean played played pretty well at the match play was T-19 at the players T-4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and solo third at the Genesis Invitational He just gained strokes off the tee with his irons Every week he can gain a ton of strokes around the green The putter has just sort of been neutral and I think if he putted better He'd have some more wins coming in and we would feel differently about him Not the best form at Augusta in his career, but does have two top 20s And is playing it more hasn't putted well the past two years now that we have shot link data But that stuff kind of comes with experience. So I Think like you can build a case just from the modeling standpoint But also on top of that these guys have good good cases and I'm not interested in long shots this week Yeah, it's I know it's a small field But this is such a complete test and it's so star-studded that I'm not taken I'm not taking on a necessary risk for outrides I'll say that for top 10s or top 20s if there are guys that I really want to get access to and again, too The top three guys are hoarding 32% of the win equity and that's important to remember too as far as Betting long shots. So the guys brand is considering for outrides rom plus 950 pheno 24 to 1 the key ones Patrick Hanley 19 and Xander Shafley at 25 to 1 now a small pool of guys can win Brandon realistically But a lot of guys can push for a top 10 for a top 20 only 88 golfers in the field top 50 plus ties make the cut When you look at the non-outrides the finishing positions Matchups group bets nationality bets, whatever it may be. Where do you see in value there? So I got two options for two different guys The first is gonna watch probably make it the first I'll swap it The first I'll say is Rory McElroy. Okay, so you can bet him top Irish player at minus 320 Over Shane Lowry and Matthew McLean Do I find this in a group betting or is it under like specials as I'm scrolling around here on vid props Props. Thank you. Okay All right, I got it But yeah, I see value there and then also There is top great Britons and Ireland player at plus 120. So it's a it's a larger pool there But it's not a particularly strong group, you know, Justin Rose is interesting this week So that's also on the same tab if you're not if you're not I thought I already was there was I not there Well, there's top Ireland top Irish minus 310 you said 320 310 now, so he moved he okay, and then toward the bottom there We have Great Britain and Ireland now There's some more interesting names there because it's obviously a larger group. Justin Rose is intriguing Matt Fitzpatrick. I Don't think it's fully healthy Tommy Fleetwood Not that concerned there So it's kind of a lot like extra names to give some better odds on Rory and then similar for Victor Hovland top continental Euro player plus 360 I Preciate a double check now Okay, you like that like that For Hovland and then also Hovland in group E So be under the groups tab That's with Sam Burns Hideki Matsuyama in Brooks Gapka. Hovland is plus 200 Burns is the one I fear the most honestly I kind of is starting to put things together Hideki. I don't know if he's a hundred percent healthy in Brooks One the most recent live event in Orlando But hasn't been particularly like stellar Overall so, you know, there's some risk but two to one for Hovland who is always a threat to lead a field in T Degree is a good number according to my model Section over on Fandall group Hovland win is two to one over Sam Burns Hideki Matsuyama Havland the top continental European player He is four to one Rory the top Irish golfer minus a 20 and then Rory the top great British or Irish golfer has lengthened to plus 175 so you can get that one as well. That's via the prop section over at Fandall Sportsbook Now we have a lot of stuff you can bet on this week Brandon. You've got Tiger Woods specific props. You've got tournament specials. You've got everything you could possibly want so eat your heart out What else you got seeing value at Fandall for this week? I took a long list a tongue a long look at the list for Tiger props and I Just can't I can't quite get there It's stuff that I don't have a good grasp on so I'm gonna bump over to it's all optimistic stuff It is and I want to be optimistic But frankly I'm not a very optimistic person you're not gonna bet him wire-to-wire winner at 270 to one I don't think so Would you bet him to win a 270 to one Yeah, that that I would do yeah, okay, cool But on the back on the props tab top former winner Scotty Schaeffler now plus 155 I initially had it plus 165 but Schaeffler top winner You can look at the list here. It's there are a few names that can overtake Schaeffler I think speed is very intriguing this week Dustin Johnson can show up in really good form again I don't know if Hideki's super healthy to the point that he's gonna contend this week Then we have guys who are just either hurt or not in super strong form or unknowable form with like Tiger Patrick Reed Adam Scott and then from there it really drops off to some of the older winners or guys with even more question marks so Sure, it's like 13 names on the list, but kind of viewing it as more of like a Five or six man group combined so Schaeffler plus 155 gets you access to Some some Scotty Schaeffler, even if you don't want to bet him outright at 7 to 1 Yeah, the top former winners. It's obviously got Hideki in there Jordan Spieth Dustin Johnson Tiger Woods It's a lot of guys who are not in the best of form right now Whereas Schaeffler is arguably in the best form of anybody in the field So it's not a long number of plus 155 for Schaeffler to be the top former winner, but Value is value. I think we have to be okay with that regardless of where What the odds are as it comes anything else stand out to you for this week Brandon? I Guess like top top 20 names that I'd be considering Walking Neiman and Mito Pereira just to give two live names out there We talked about all day yesterday just pooping on Neiman or on Mito We even have a head-to-head bet Neiman versus Mito Fandal points scored and now here you are crawling back to my guy. Well again, not my guy, but you know Guy I am higher on than you are I will raise it that way. We know he's your boy. It's alright, but There are two I think they're the two Live names who I think are like at the right level of I think there's reasonable form these guys were always good ball strikers when we had all the shot length data Long enough off the tee as well But they're like in that they're not the camp Smith or DJ where they're still kind of Almost being treated as just maybe in a little bit worse PGA tour form. Yeah, but they're also not like some of the guys who are Really struggling on the live tour. So I think there's a nice balance there. If you want to kind of get some Some access to the live guys Look at the top 10 top 20 market there Yeah, if you want that go ahead, but I do think the values are actually there for them Just straight up ignoring like the narrative angles and Neiman top 20 is plus 210 if Andal sports book Mito Pereira T20 is plus 250 That is all that we have here for this week Brandon I want to thank you once again for coming on talking about the Masters and joy Watching hopefully there is less rain than I was talking about earlier on sorry again to bring it up my bad But good luck to you. Good luck with your bats. Good luck with your DFS lineups and appreciate you coming on as always Good luck to you as well, Jim. You can find Brandon on Twitter. I can do a 13 Check out his simulations. He mentioned over at number fire comm you can also find our DFS podcast on the number fire Daily Fantasy podcast V. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a and an ES will be back once again tomorrow talking about some major league baseball across Wednesday We'll talk to you all once again then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network