 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another International Relations Capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. We discussed today the visit to Moscow by the President of China, Xi Jinping, which happened just a couple of days ago. It all started off with a peace proposal made by China, running into several paragraphs about how to end the conflict in Ukraine. But that document, it was very clear that there was no proposal for the end of the war. It was basically a listing of the principles in international relations and stating all these principles in the UN Charter and elsewhere and national practices and international practices should all be observed in dealing with such issues. So there was no meeting point, there was no proposal for ceasefire, there was no proposal for any kind of negotiations, but a list of principles. This was obviously aimed at China getting into the act, into the issue, because so far China was merely abstaining on all the resolutions in the UN Assembly and the Security Council. And therefore, they felt that there was a little space, strategic space for them to be active. And when they saw the proposal to the Russians, President Putin welcomed it, he said this is possible for discussion, it is positive. Some non-committal expressions were made of supporting the or considering the Chinese proposal. That gave some hope to everybody that maybe China will make an effort to mediate between the West and Russia. Or at least make a call for ceasefire and negotiations jointly between Russia and China. That was the expectation. But it is the opposite that happened. What happened was after two days of discussion, Russia intensified the war and China supported Russia's core interests as they call it. So what has happened during this visit is a further intensification of the relations between Russia and China. Formalized as it were, as the quote-unquote unlimited cooperation between the two countries. That agreement itself is not quoted in the joint statement. But every indication is that China is now joining Russia in supporting their war in Ukraine. That's what really happened. There was a joint communique which was very long and there are many points in it. But none of these is really new except that at every point there is a reference to the close relations between China and Russia. And the commonalities in their positions of resisting Western imperialism, resisting American influence in the Asia-Pacific criticism of the Quad. In so many ways, most of the discussions which are listed in the joint communique build up to a special relationship between Russia and China. And this is an immediate impact on what India is trying to do this time. Because as chairman of G20 we have a role, we think we have a role. But that has also been a kind of counter by the China-Russia. So there would have been a possibility if Chinese intentions were good in spite of the fact that we are at loggerheads with China. There could be a peace meeting between China and India because we had more or less identical positions about the works. So if China wanted some serious effort, it could have tried, I don't know whether India would have joined to have a joint move towards this particular problem. But obviously that was not even suggested because it was obviously an exercise in support of Russia rather than anything else. So the final result of the visit, I would summarize it as saying that it created a strategic space for China in the conflict. And at the same time India's possibility of intervening or moderating or mediating or whatever's possibility was there as the chairman of G20 has also diminished. President Xi put considerable weight behind Putin and Putin has not announced, even though Putin has not announced his candidature for presidency for the elections in 2024. Mr. Xi went out of his way to declare that he supported Putin in the next elections and expressed the hope that he will continue as president. And this is mostly an opportunity for that when there is criticism for Putin inside Russia because the western world is very agitated about what he has done. And even the non-aligned world is not supporting him in any way in this war and everybody knows that this war has to end. But at this point in time to say not only that China and Russia have common interests but also to wish Putin another term as president of Russia was somewhat surprising. So with this new neutral position that they were taking. And so now there is a support of a big power behind Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And also this particular statement by China also counters or opposes the initiative taken by the international criminal court, which as you know, has indicated Putin and has even ordered his arrest because it cannot be implemented Russia is not a part of the criminal court statute. And so it is not applicable to them but international criminal court has summoned other heads of state from other countries. And so this is certainly a blow to Putin. And in that context, the Chinese president supporting him not only now but also for the future seemed a little bit different. Of course there are many, many positive signals in the document, although it is not directed against directed towards any action as such. It talks about the UN Charter and international law. And then of course reference to legitimate security concerns of all countries where of course you could say Ukraine is also included, Ukraine's legitimate security concerns should also be taken into account. But that is by implication, not directly. And of course, block confrontation. They oppose, which of course is music to the ear of Russia. So and after these discussions, Russia said that the proposal was constructive and it even said that Russia will be happy to have a Chinese mediation. And therefore it can be easily summarized, the result can be summarized as the peace plan arriving dead in the sense there is no peace plan as such. It is basically a reiteration of the friendship between Russia and China in this context. There are some reports that there will be a phone call by President Xi, by Telephone Zelensky, but as far as we know that it's not taking place, no announcement has been made. So in the sense that if at least he had spoken to him there would have been some element of negotiation or persuasion. As I said, the latest agreement of 2022, April 24, 2022 has not been mentioned in the joint communique, but there was no need for it because we are reiterating the kind of cooperation that these countries are going to pursue. And some old agreements of June 21 has been also reiterated. And then some new language is talk about non-alignment for China and Russia, non-aligned to whom? I don't know. And then non-confrontation, non-targeting of others. These are all truisms, cannot be proved one way or the other. But there is clear indication that Russia was provoked to take action in Ukraine and that message is very clear. In other words, there is considerable justification for Russian action in Ukraine spread all over this declaration. You cannot say that they are saying, yes, it was good for Russia to have attacked Ukraine. But from all the indications, you know, security concerns and non-alignment and non-targeting and non-confrontation, all this is simply strengthening the position of the operation. And of course, the General Assembly votes, Security Council voted has not been changed in any way. The thing has taken place, no voting has taken place recently. But then China gave no indication of changing their position in the United Nations. And there is a curious reference to democratization of international relations and also desire to, you know, to have a multi-polar world. So some of these places which have not been seen in the Chinese or Russian dictionaries have suddenly come up with this. And so it says that Russia needs a stable China and China needs a stable Russia. NATO has offered to weaken Russia should be resisted. And also, very significantly, Russia and China will support the core concerns of each other. You know what those core concerns are. Immediately, Ukraine or Russia and China has several core interests coming up. There it is Taiwan, there it is Hong Kong or there it is Xinjiang. All these are issues in which China has major core interests and all of them are explosive situations. So it says China will support the core interests of Russia. And similarly, the core interests of China will also be protected. And in other words, their collaboration or alliance has been strengthened. So China certainly does not want Russia to lose the Ukraine war and criticize the West for all kinds of activities. So the whole situation looks at the future trajectory of the conflict may be effective by this. And there was clear evidence of that because after she left Moscow, there was an intensification of the war. A large number of missiles were sent, lots of people were killed. So this is the situation. So what kind of change is going to take? Certainly it is not a neutral position. Certainly it is not a pro-Western position, not a pro-Ukrain position. And there is no solution suggested as to what the eventual settlement should be. So the security environment in the whole region and also Asia Pacific or India Pacific has also been disturbed by Xi's visit. Because both of them repeatedly said the joint statement stated that there has been an attempt to destabilize Indo-Pacific. Because they don't use the phrase Indo-Pacific, they only use the phrase Asia Pacific. And that is what China and Russia refer to Asia Pacific, not Indo-Pacific. They think it has a wrong name given by the Americans and therefore they don't use that. So Russia's dependence on China is sure to expand. Of course there were rumors that China is going to supply arms to Russia in this context. But the Secretary of State of the United States has said that that's not likely. He said Blinken said that we do not expect that the Chinese supply arms, though there are rumors to that effect. And for India, this is a very difficult situation. The indications are that this will in one way or the other push India towards the West. Quad is likely to get more support from India and maybe a non-alliance of some kind will be formed. At least the activities will be strengthened and the security considerations will become very prominent. So we could say that there is a kind of pincer movement in Europe, between Russia and China. And Europe has to counter the new situation. So as far as Indo-Pacific is concerned, obviously, Xi and Putin have now a joint strategy to counter U.S. efforts in Indo-Pacific, as they say. Particularly they are referring to Quad. And also they said that there is an effort to politicize multilateral groupings. Because they repeatedly say that some groupings have been politicized, obviously they are talking about Quad. They say we are all for regional groupings, but there should be no exclusive regional groupings. It should be inclusive. For example, there is a Russia-India-China grouping, because nobody hears about it these days. That is something that they would welcome. They say why not? They can be together. And so they are both in BRICS for example. They said BRICS we can support. So wherever China is excluded or wherever Russia is excluded from these groupings, naturally they will object to that. And following that, there is an agreement on large number of bilateral projects. And that's also important for Russia, because Russia needs this. And projects worth about $165 billion is being contemplated in very many sectors, very crucial sectors like energy and others. And therefore the political proximity between the two countries is also supported by these projects which have been envisaged. I don't know how long it will come about. But there is an intention to intensify their cooperation, international cooperation, economic cooperation which is very necessary for Russia at this time. That's a very critical moment. So the result of this, what will be its implication for G20? Nothing new, because G20 foreign ministers have already gone back on the original proposal for end of the conflict etc. As mentioned in the Bali declaration, Indonesia was the chairman. Though Indonesia was the chairman, the Bali declaration was essentially drafted by India. And many of the statements of the Prime Minister of India found a place in the Bali declaration. And it was supported by Russia as well as the United States and acknowledged that India had made a contribution. But what happened between Bali and Delhi was the visit to Ukraine by President Biden. Because President Biden did not go there to seek a ceasefire or to negotiate. He went there to say that we are here to support Ukraine and to weaken Russia very clearly. And he outlined several things that Russia can, many things that can be done to promote Russia-China. And Lincoln was clearly against any ceasefire. Because he said that if there is a ceasefire, what will happen is that Russia will try to regroup and intensify the war. So the Quad is likely to get strengthened and the inclusive Asia-Pacific security system will be promoted. And Russia welcomes China's willingness to play a positive role for the political and diplomatic settlement of the Ukraine crisis. They talk about a Ukraine crisis, they don't talk about an Ukraine war. They talk as though there is some kind of problem in Ukraine to be resolved diplomatically and politically to diffuse the Ukraine crisis. They don't talk about a Russia-Ukraine war. So it is fairly negative from the western point of view, fairly negative from even our own point of view. And the changes in the escalating international balance of power is quite visible. There's a big shift because it started when Russia and China signed that agreement. And that has been now further strengthened and China is not initiating any peace moves. It has simply gone there to establish solidarity with Russia. And if Ukraine is at poor interest to Russia, China is bound to support it. So now we have to see what follows of the United Nations. Will China also veto the resolution against Russia? Or will they continue to abstain like India does? But India's position and China's position are always very distinct. One possibility was since both of us were not as neutral, there was a possibility of our getting together a peace move. The atmosphere is not good for that because we are not in the process of negotiating with China because we have major interests. We have major worries, concerns about the kind of actual control. And also there is no, as the foreign minister just kept saying, there is no basis for India-China relations. All the agreements which were reached in the past have been violated by China and it's all a new ballgame. So nobody is willing to now talk to China on the border or anything like that. And that is not the position. So in a way, the situation has deteriorated from our perspective. It is moving towards Russia getting more support, which will be reflected in the Ukraine war. And after what President Biden has said, they will intensify. We also have heard that Poland is going to send aircraft and missiles to Ukraine. So an intensification of the war rather than peace that has happened. No peace has broken out Ukraine and the indications are that the war might intensify. That does not give any comfort to anybody. But it gives a lot of comfort to Russia because they have now the almost unconditioned support of China for the Russian war in Ukraine. This seems to be the result of President Xi Jinping's visit. That's very difficult to predict. Many people, more experts, more expertise than we have not predicted it. Well, the general belief is that there is a possibility there are so many possibilities. Possibility of Russia being satisfied with number one, having unconditional control over Crimea. They already are occupying it, but it is being challenged by Ukraine. That may be one satisfying point for the Russians. That is, hands of Crimea, which is Russia's. That is one. Secondly, if they can get the Donbas region, those three republics, they already made them independent. They are virtually joined with Russia. It's always been very partial towards Russia and now it's more or less integrated. And that if Ukraine can recognize that and give away this land to Russia, that is one way. In other words, Russia gets two points, one the Crimea for themselves and also Donbas region for themselves, which is, of course, very negative from Ukraine's point of view, but they can live with it because this has been the real. The other thing that they will want, of course, is the whole of the border, the seashore of Ukraine being having Russia having control over it, so that they can spring Ukraine from taking in any activities with the best. And of course, some kind of a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO. So these are the points. You can see the points of agreement or possible agreement. But this visit has not helped any of this. None of these has moved forward. But God knows if a compromise comes, these will be the compromises as far as I can see. But nobody is predicting these things. I'm saying it to you, but no strategic decurs have written that this is the solution. But anybody can see these solutions provided there is goodwill and understand. Thank you. See you next week. Thank you, sir.