 Well good morning everyone. My name is Amy King and I'm a lecturer here at the Strategic and Head Study Centre at the ANU. A great pleasure this morning in welcoming you to another of our keynote lectures. This time this morning on the subject of the rise of China, something that I know is of interest to many people here in Canberra, of course, more broadly around the region. And to take us through this subject we'll be welcoming Dr Francis Khan, who I had the great pleasure to meet last year on a trip to Taiwan. And who I was very, very impressed with and learned a great deal from when we discussed issues around regional security, the U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship, and the strategic environment of the Asia-Pacific more generally. Francis has a very important perspective on these issues, having served time in both the university life and in government in Taiwan. He recently completed a two-year stint as the Senior Adviser for National Security Council in Taiwan and is now an Associate Professor at National Junction University in the Department of Diplomacy. He's also worked at the University of Cambridge, where he completed his PhD, at a Yale University in the United States. As I have brought from the wealth experience both internationally and from Taiwan through these issues. He'll be speaking today on subject or the question really of the rise of China or the rejuvenation or the renaissance of China, something that really is two very different ways of looking at this question and the implications of the different ways of looking at this question. So as with our previous keynote speakers, Francis will be speaking today for about 45 minutes or so and they'll all know that half an hour for questions and answers. So would you please join me in welcoming Francis to speak to us? Well thank you very much indeed. Amy, a dear colleague from Australia, from Taiwan, from elsewhere, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. It's really my great honour to be invited to share some of my observations. I obtained both from when I was working in the government and also my long academic years in Cambridge. The reason I chose this topic, the rise of China or the great renaissance of the Chinese nation implication for all of us. As Amy points out, this is a question I'd like to, I have asked myself for quite a few months already that I am also asking you. Let's all together think of the topic and what actually with what implications we bring to us. Before that, I'd like to thank the man organiser. When I was in the government, I had many good opportunities to work with your best ambassador to Taiwan, Ambassador Maggie. We work very closely and we have many occasions to talk about our bilateral relations but also our relations with the US and also our very peculiar relations with China. That experience really made me feel that our two countries share a lot of commonalities in addition to differences. One of the key elements that we share is that you are an airline of the United States and we are a good friend of the US too and what that would mean to us at a very crucial time when China is continuing to rise. I think of the two terms. The rise of China, for most of us, we would tend to believe that rise of China only happened last year or a few years ago. No, if you check the website, 30 years ago, people already talked about the rise of China. So what would be the difference now from say 20 years ago and what would be the difference from now and 20 years down the road? I will tell you that 20 years down the road would be very, very different. But for many Chinese, they are not only talking about the rise of China, actually they really talk about the rise of China. They talk about the great renaissance of the Chinese nation. In Chinese, 中華民族為大復興. But I know that these are two different concepts in two different settings. The rise of China, particularly for outside observers, would mean that China have a rising from nowhere. It's a poor country, it's a democratic country. It has endured kind of a national humiliation for so many years. It has endured the cultural revolution, you name it. But for many Chinese, and I'll argue a bit later, it's not only for certain group of people. It's for both the elites, for the political leaders, for business, the CEO, for a chairman, for whoever, and also for people on the streets. They have the same objective. It is very rare, right? In Australia, different parties would have different souls, not to mention Taiwan, right? We have the Green and Buu, and in the U.S. you have T-Party, you have whoever. But in China, this country which has 1.3 billion people, all of them almost have the same soul, 12 billion souls, I'm going to tell you a bit later. Now, what I'm going to do is actually not only ask one question, but five. Starting from, is China really rising to the point that it could match the U.S.? I mean, if it's not, there's no reason that we are sitting here today. And if this is the case, why is China's warming? I mean, this is going to be very important for all of us. And we're trying to observe by past, or almost slowly, the older we have been so familiar for so many years, past 60 years, we know that in the early stage, after the end of the Second World War, we have the bipolar international system, that after the 80s, early 90s, then we have only so great power in the United States. And we are very happy with that, right? But what will happen if China becomes capable of challenging the U.S. preeminence? Firstly, is the U.S. losing its hegemonic position? I mean, it really depends also upon the U.S. how to respond to the new situation. And finally, what would be the implication for all of us? Let me start from this question. There are sometimes when we talk about the rise of China, if you are a military professional, you are thinking about how powerful now the POA is going to be if you are a business person, you talk about economics. But overall, when I'm talking about the rise of China, I think of all dimensions. But today I only choose three, economic, military, and culture. They combine as an overall national strength. So let me start from economic dimension. Now you can see, we all know that the China start is the so-called reform and opened up period from 1978. At that time, the overall national GDP is only 150 billion. And today, two years ago is around a bit more than 8,000. Today is already 9,000. How many times? 55. Just in any other country that could develop in such a rapid pace. So we can see Shanghai and elsewhere. This is how we have been witnessing China's economic growth in the past 35 years also. This diagram shows the figure about the Chinese real GDP growth per year. Again, when you started the reform era starting from the 1970s, and at some point the annual economic growth rate could be as high as 15%. And there are some years in the past 35 years that actually exceed 10%. So many people said that China's economic growth always maintained 10%. It's not right. But overall, and the average of the economic growth rate in the past 75 years is around 10%. But there were also some years, particularly in 1989, 1990, and you know what happened, right? China's where mainly what particularly Western investors withdrew from the mainland, only a few stayed there, including Taiwanese. And in the mid 90s and sometime before in 2008, the global economic downturn. In the past a couple of years, you've been almost under eight. And many economies predicted that it's going to be very difficult for the Chinese to continue to grow, to remain at the anything above 8%. And I don't know whether you still remember. A few years ago, people argued that one of the element that could maintain the CCP's legitimacy would be the economic growth rate continuing exceeding 8%. I didn't buy it. One regime cannot be surviving only based upon one indicator. But anyway, this shows how China has been here today. This slide shows also the annual growth rate and also the overall amount of China's foreign reserve in the past 20 years. Again, starting from something like 1993, it's almost zero. And last year, 2014, it's around 4 trillion. And a few years later, it's going to be almost 7 trillion. So the build up the foreign reserve really goes up very quickly. And if we compare China with the US, surely, although I'm not an economist, we all know that the US has some reason. It doesn't really need that much foreign reserve. But I'd like to argue that the reason China really likes to keep its foreign reserve so much is that they like to use as a leverage to influence not only its ratio in the US but also countries so on. But you still can see the very large margin between the two countries in terms of the foreign reserve. Manufacturing output. We point out five countries here. Italy has some big names. Germany, as we all know, Germany is a big country in terms of manufacturing. However, this is Germany, the Green Line. In the past three or four decades, Italy and Germany remained, well, they developed, but this was pretty slow. This is somewhere we are more familiar with. Japan, particularly in early 90s, there was a time when everyone talked about Japan is going to be number one. Even then, the number one we talk about is all about economic. It's all about trade, all about manufacturing. No one talked about that. Japan is going to pose any military, not to mention diplomatic kind of competitiveness, be it the United States. And this is the US. So it's a very healthy economy and the US is continuing to rise in a very steady speed, China, starting from nowhere. So that's why people are talking about right of China, right of China at all times. If you really start from zero and now they are up and down, I'm sorry, China is this one. So a couple of years ago, some years ago, China has already exceeded the US to become the world's number one manufacturing or what we call the world's factory. Now let me also ask you a very interesting question. The first time when the IMF actually announced this data some years ago, and we certainly found out that there will be a time in very remote future that China may one day become the world's number one in economic terms and no one has actually well prepared for that. And at that time the IMF had predicted that there may be 30. And if you still recall, many of us, including myself, was asking, no, no way, 30, 30, maybe at the end of the century, China would become number one. And that was at least as far as I'm aware. The very first time that we knew that one day, although it's still remote, China is going to be the world's number one. But the date has been brought earlier and earlier since then. So the economist has also predicted that the year of 2026 would be the year that the U.S. would be replaced by China. That was almost the first time that we knew that it's going to happen soon. Again, we knew that it's going to happen before the year 2020. Do you remember a few seconds ago I said that economists predicted that the year would be 2026. And recently they have been invited by the economists that before 2017. This is already early 2015. Actually, they will have different various statistics to assess that the country is overall GDP. According to some statistics, China has already exceeded the U.S. last year, although it's still not officially confirmed. Yet, anyway, it's going to happen this year or next year. So economically, we believe that there's no doubt that China will become number one. How about military dimension? Because both Australia and Taiwan, we know how strong, how powerful the POA has become. Particularly after the POA has adopted the kind of revolutionary reform after the year of 1996-97 when the U.S. sent two aircraft groups to somewhere between the Taiwan Strait in preventing both sides from escalating the conflict. China knew that it needs to have a very powerful maritime capabilities. So this slide shows that this is the first Chinese aircraft carrier learning hub and there will be at least two more on the way. We talk about China's economic growth and military power always follow economic growths. Again, starting from 1989 and until a couple of years ago, this is China's published military project. And for some of you who know China's military so much, this is only official figure. Some American and European experts predict that the real number would be that it's low or even some of them said that it would be four times. I mean four times would be a bit too much. But again, it also depends on what elements you actually are counting. For instance, the armed police can be used as military in the event of any virtuality. But the Chinese exclude the armed police from the military project. But there have been various studies too. Now, this is the annual growth rate. I can only find this slide. But actually in the past couple of years, the annual growth rate of the military spending of the PLA aircraft has been rising again. And these growths compare with the economic growth rate that we have. Some why growth is much higher than the economics on the hub. So they actually make the PLA very capable and very formidable truth to be compare with. Having said that, the US, the overall military spending of the United States, still exceed the combination of the all next eight or nine countries altogether. I think the US experts always argue that China is actually posing a great threat to many countries around. But the Chinese from the past also argue that compared with you, we are still very kind of a small potato. So these are the next eight big military countries. And overall, the overall budget is still less than the US. This picture shows the rating of the biggest military. Now we need people, professional people to provide more. We need tanks to do the ground battlefield. We need aircraft to defend our air. We need nuclear warheads to pose any kind of deterrence. We need aircraft carriers to implement our military strategy. And we need someone to do the 3D warship quietly. We need money to do all the things. So although China was listed as number three in this list, if we consider many of these elements, China is already kind of number two. Although the difference between number one and number two is still too large to bridge. But this is a more interesting diagram to look at. The top line and the four line, the difference between them is that the four line is actually official POA budget. And the top line is what the London-based think tank IA double S has estimated. As you can see, the earliest possible date that even in military terms, the Chinese is going to replace the US as the world's number one. Remember what we have seen before. The big difference in terms of the military budget yet, according to the continuing rights of the Chinese POA military spending, the earliest date would be not to remote. It's going to happen in maybe 10 to 15 years down the way. Even the most remote date would still be some time before the mid of this century. And it is really some very alarming picture that we are looking at. We would actually have been thinking that in some terms there are different statistics. What we have been talking about is the overall GDP amount. And China has anyway around four times of the US population. So this is a vast land. This is a very big country. So according to the population, we still understand why China could become number one in economic terms. But in military terms, many of us, even an military expert, sitting in each room would still be supplied to see how soon it is going to happen. Now let's look at a softer dimension of the overall national strength. We all know that China established the Confucius Institute. To compare the national strength in terms of culturally difficult tasks, we all watched Hollywood movies. We all listened to the American music. We hardly listened to Chinese music, right? A couple of Chinese movies are good, but not all of them. So it's really difficult to compare that in cultural terms. But at least China has tried very hard to also to compete with its American counterparts in culture. This is the number of the establishment of the Confucius Institute in the past decade also. And the Confucius Institute is all around the world. Although recently, beginning the past couple of years, some American universities, I don't know how about Australia, and also in Western Europe, they start to continue the contract with the Confucius Institute because they believe that the Institute actually has done something else other than culture. Still, I mean, these are figures showing how much the Chinese wanted to compete with the US. This shows that there are some comparisons between these two great hours. Some of them are more relevant to what we are talking about. For instance, the film industry, as I said, the American movies are still much, much more appealing to the global viewers than the Chinese. But say here, Olympic medals, that was a figure for the year of 2012. In the past two years, I remember saying in London or in the end, I think the number has been, the two figures have been closer. And some other figures too. So even in mid-culture terms, there are some comparisons that Chinese actually bridging their gap with their American counterparts. This is a public opinion taken in Latin America and Africa to show actually many of them believe that the US and the Chinese share almost the same level in terms of their perspective and the perception of the American and Chinese so powerful. Overall, we are asking the question, is China or will China be the world's leading superpower? There are many countries here, while some of them, for instance, in North America, some of them believe that China is going to be a superpower and some countries in the middle. This gives us a kind of overall image that people around the world recognize that China is or will be the world's superpower. Now the next question I'm going to ask is, what is China's worldview if China is rising in such a rapid pace? China's worldview is going to determine what action it is going to take. Look at these pictures. China actually placed itself in the center of the wall and the energy is bigger and bigger. If we really want to know China's mindset about its global and regional position, we have to take it back to almost five or something years ago and Chinese did believe that China had the 5,000 years of civilization. It is the most enduring one and it still survives. What is particularly special for the Chinese people is that it's not only a nation, it is a state, it is a country. So this is a nation state that has experienced several so many periods of up and down and even invaded by other races like the Yuan dynasty and Qing dynasty and it has endured as I said by the Western imperialism, Gangbo diplomacy starting from 1842 all the way until last century. But China still survives and that is what actually ultimately Chinese people believe that China is a special nation and also is a special state. Literally China, China. I found that the some Western entities used the wrong interpretation. China, China means middle kingdom. No, China never sees itself as middle. Never as a middle-sized country. It's always big and vast. So China means, Zhong means center. Guo is not state, Guo is universe. So China is the center of the universe. I try to make Chinese behind the center of the entire globe. So the world's number one on all dimensions was actually the phenomenon for so many years. I'm going to show some of the statistics a bit later. Yet the nation's trends have been declining after the year 1820. I'm going to show you this is a magic number, 1820. So the Chinese have endured the 200 years of national affiliation because this is a term, a very special term that Chinese have always been entertained for so many years. Even when we were small, even when we were Taiwanese we had been educated by our textbooks that the Chinese have been in such a hardship period of time. And that is all due to the Western imperialism. And starting from the Qing Dynasty and Ming War the Republic period politicians have taken all sorts of reforms and there's only one end to recover from where China was after the year of almost 1800. Now let me show you the magic number, 1820. China, this is for China, red China. This shows the share of the world GDP. China and India they combined together accounted for more than half of the world's GDP. Yet India was not the unified country of the state from time to time, but not China. But starting from 1820 the share of the world's GDP has become property until the 80s. Again, 1820. Many economists have done a very comprehensive examination about when and why and how the Chinese have been declining for so long and have been in such a destructive way. And they all point to the year of around the year of 1800. Interestingly, 1820, if you know China's history a little bit this is a year that we know that Qianlong has been there for many years, 60 years. And there was the peak of Chinese power in terms of strength and also in terms of territory. And in Qianlong's chimpiness the territory is even larger than what China has now. But in late 18th century Qianlong passed the power to Jiaqing and 1820 is the year Jiaqing passed the power to Daoguang. And we all knew that Daoguang, particularly Daoguang 20 years after Daoguang took power and 22 years after that the opium will actually happen. So I'm not going to talk too much about the details of the history I'd just like to know that there must be some reason in the early 19th century that China, the overall economics and also military or even cultural and scientific development in all sorts of fields and dimensions have dropped following the economic decline too. Now this is another chart shown in 1820. China again is the blue one so starting from 1820 it has been decaying until almost the end of the last century. It's not only China but Asia as a whole. It's also decaying. See in the very early of the first century Asia was number one without any doubt and until almost the end of last century the share of the Asian GDP among the global amount is shrinking very rapidly and then it starts to rise again. And sometime also in the year of 2025 Asia would again exceed particularly Western Europe and also America to be the world's number one continent in terms of GDP. So that's the year of 1820. We should have another talk to talk about why it happened. So we have seen in the first place China has been rising almost to a point that could match the US. We also have seen in the past two centuries why China has been kind now. For older people on the streets they have two different sets of mentality and how China and how Chinese see it. See scenario number one, rise of China and this is the term that most of us are using by line. Rise of China, as I said China has been rising from nowhere has been rising from poverty has been rising from kind of humiliation so they try to be well. China has benefited from the current order a lot and ascending China is trying to also be seeing existing international order and this order is established by the West and this is a legal international system. It is open to everyone if you have a capability and you have a courage, you have determination. It is open to coming. It is more integrated. We have a different region but the overall in this group economic trade relations are more integrated and all the governance of the international order should be based on the rule of law. So this is what actually the West has established in our sixth decade is that in high international order the war has become absolute and no longer a tool for rising power when you try to challenge the existing power thanks to poverty, thanks to nuclear deterrence is a bit ironic but also thanks to globalization. So the possible result of this scenario will be the existing international order remains intact. And in this international order China would happily live with it and the US is going to continue to lead us. And another end of the extreme of the intellectual would be the great Renaissance thesis. China as I said has suffered a lot from the current war order initiated by the West. This is the international order discriminated non-West Bank countries and if you look at IMF, you look at the World Bank even if you look at the United Nations Security Council the reason that China was included in the mid 40s was the existence of the US and otherwise there would be only four great powers in the UN SC. So China believed that this is not a very fair international system China whenever possible whenever powerful enough it's going to reshape the rules and institutions of the current international order to serve not only its own interests but also for other emerging economies emerging countries too. And other countries are going to perceive China either as an opportunity to work with or a threat. Particularly in recent years countries around China the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and some others are actually having perceived China as a very formidable threat. So these countries are either going to be joining a balancing camp or bandwagoning to join China or the other. So the possible result of this scenario would be the kind of power struggle between the two great powers for the world and also regional leadership and others have to choose a kind of new co-war to emerge in particular in East Asia. Anyway, these are scenarios. It needs a lot of debate. You know, when I travel around sometimes the experts and enemies and officials ask me the same question. You know, we now have problems in South China Sea. We have problems in India as I said to Annie some while ago whenever we were racing in India you remember, I think it's in September last year Chinese President Xi Jinping paid his first visit to New Delhi and they had a very good time and they played the swing. You remember the photo in Gujran the Prime Minister Modi's promise they had a very cozy afternoon and wife the first wife said tea and all of a sudden they received a news that the Chinese sent troops across the border. So whenever the Chinese security people, military people asked me in Indian intelligence there are two schools of thought. One is that they believe that they did this intentionally. You know, we can show you two faces. We can be friendly, we can be your threat. You have to take us seriously. And the other school of thought is that this is an accident. And this accident actually initiated by some top generals in the region that they are not very happy with Xi Jinping. Well, I don't have information. We could argue about that. This actually shows how much the people around the globe were asking the same question. What China really wants? My answer is very simple. I don't have answer for the question whether the Chinese did that intentionally to cause the border effect. It needs information. It needs intelligence. But I could answer this question. What China really wants? They want to be the world's number one. And I'm open. This is a very easy answer. But this is a very difficult picture that we could actually think of. Why China want to become the world's number one? If you ask Americans, some of my counterparts, they still at the NSC, at the White House, at the State Department, they say that our strategic objective would be to continue to demand the world's number one and to demand the American preeminence in Asia and elsewhere. But for ordinary Americans, they would answer otherwise. Again, Australian people, I ask you what your country would be. You would have thousands, millions, different questions. Everyone has a dream. That it is a country just so close to us, the largest population, and it's going to be the largest economy, the largest military, and it's still not a democratic country. And almost most of the people is not all of the people will tell you that almost the same thing, we want to be number one. That is very formidable. So China would like to have China to become the world's number one, or to return to this number one position. Again, these are two different mindsets. I'm going to elaborate a bit later. So China try very proactively and interestingly, it's nearly acquired power into the great authority in the global system, economically, critically, culturally, you know, on what? Ever dimension. So when would it happen? We know that it's going to happen in dynamic terms in a couple years time, but how about military and how about political, how about diplomatic, what would China do? Will China observe by pass or over-throw the existing order? Particularly if it's going to over-throw the existing order, country like Australia, like Taiwan, we are so familiar with becoming older, we are so happy, at least I'm happy, with the existing order. And not really speculate if an international order that is going to be dominated by the Chinese. Based on passing experiences, there are some experts concluding that in our human recent history, there have been 15 cases that an existing power tried to over-throw, I'm sorry, a challenger tried to over-throw an existing great power. 15 cases. Guess how many of them ended with a war? 15 cases. 11. I really can't imagine if there's a war between the United States and China, Australia deciding with the US, I believe, in one way or the other. Taiwan... difficult. I'm not a decision maker. Really difficult. Japan, according to the US-Japan security pact, Japan should be deciding with the US, the hub of South Korea. I mean, sometimes we are so familiar with why actually we have been enjoying for so long. It's really difficult for us to project what's going to happen, particularly the situation is not what we could actually have imagined. Now, let me come back to this slide. I mean, the left-hand side, this is a challenging power, 16,000 power, and if challenging power adopted a very limited leverage to challenge the existing great power. I mean, limited meaning that taking a step-by-step approach and happily living with the current situation, they still happy with how the existing great power kind of sharing power with the challenger. Revolutionary meaning trying to change or even to destabilize the status quo. Existing power will also have two ways to resist the challenge, risk averse or risk acceptance. So this would be much more modest way both sides dealing with each other engagement, buying by institutions, mixed strategy, one way or the other. But if the existing one taking a soft measure or weak measure and the challenger take a very strong or even proactive action, both sides will take kind of containment or balancing meaning AI with the medium or small players to form some sort of a block with a big challenge. And here again, a bit similar like this one, but how about if both sides are aggressive, very assertive or even very about it. And each side will be thinking to take a preventive role. Preventive for the existing one will be preventing you to become someone that could be capable of challenging me for the challenging one will be preventing you to standing in a way for me to become a capable competitor. So we have seen the side before. There are also two kinds of school of thought for the realism, excuse me. The international society is an energy in which each nation will compete for its own power and security so they don't have any mutual trust and confrontation will become a phenomenon. The existing power will be striving for continuing to be evidence to challenge you to be engaging in any change of the status quo. So take the US and China as an example. China sees the US as a hegemony power. The US sees China as an assertive power. So like many others, according to realists, the two great powers will be ended with a win. Now let me give you a more optimistic view. According to liberalism, the current international order as I said is an open, it's a multilateral, inclusive, globalized, highly interdependent. So both the great powers actually enjoy their predominance in this international order. And the emerging country like China and other big countries too benefit from the current order. So the result will be China will observe a deep role in international order when the US continues to lead but also to share with the Chinese. We have seen some contradictory signs, right? The PLA is more powerful and there is also a very soft image of the Chinese. China has been very assertive in the past few years, particularly in crisis like South China Sea, East China Sea and these are going to be a sticking point for the two great powers. China also poses trauma offensive in many dimensions too. The next question will be whether the US is losing its hegemony position. The world, we have to know the world we are so familiar with. The United States of America is the most critical leadership and we observe fear. America is in demand of China and we continue to believe that the US military's primacy is in the best interest of all and the US also enjoys its culture vaguely. But in the past, at least a decade this is the figure showing that the US military spending, following the Chinese, particularly after the online incident, the military spending of the US also increased rapidly in the past 10 years also. The US put its all, most of its resources and attention on war, on terror. The good side of this is that the US has shifted its attention back to Asia where they spoke about return to Asia, the pivot to Asia, rebalancing and no time to elaborate each by each but these are the three men of terminology that has been used by the US government in the past almost five years pointing to different things but the conclusion is that they are coming back. According to the former Secretary of State Harold Clinton in year 2017 and 2011 she pointed out that the US policy towards particularly Asia and also found policy as a whole will focus on these six starting from strengthening its alliance relations until pursuing its military and I'm going to show you. In Asia alone, the US has a five treaty alliance with Japan, with Korea, with the Philippines, with Thailand of course, with your great country. And you also enjoy some semi alliance or friendly relations with countries like Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore and these formal or informal alliance relationship actually form a very firm foundation for the US military preambulance in our part of the world and I believe that based on at least a picture we have to find how each of us can strengthen our relationship I should draw a line from here and here, Taiwan and Australia. Finally, what would be the implication? China is going to be number one. We have to ask ourselves if we will be prepared for that not yet. Many of us still are not very comfortable for the possible result. Are we really afraid of number one China? It really depends upon how China would look like 10 years down the road how it could act materially, economically. Is it going to be the core of inclusive regional integration or exclusive regional integration particularly it has to be tolerant of the label and culturally it should expand its influence on various not power. This I show you that is not only China Asia as a whole including Australia is increasing and how this entire Asia along with China is going to contribute to war as a whole. What we can do all together I hope that the US will actually reform the international order the existing international order to share more power and more interest with countries like China like India, Russia and many others and smaller players too and we have to actually think of some sort of regional security architecture to transform the current bilateral security pact to become a multilateral platform where all of us could address and solve our common problems and smaller players like us we are in the same boat the boat is not very big but we should all be the boat we should not choose side we have lots of means to prevent these two great power from the war but also from when they combine together to threaten smaller players like us so no more go force in Asia for these two great powers Finally Taiwan plus Australia and naturally we have institutionalized all nations where we have to establish some sort of a track 2 or track 1.5 platform involving specialists from officials and banking industry Multilaterally we have to advocate big country like you and small players like us to advocate kind of inclusive multilateral mechanism in international terms in security terms and also in critical terms and we should welcome the idea to form the AP and strategically the best interest for all of us is to continue to maintain the US requirements in your country, in my country and also in our entire region Finally I took a very beautiful photo in front of my room I say in the university house it really remind me of my time in the UK but you are very different in the country it is much more peaceful quieter but it is a great country when I soak in the garden you can ask Kevin I said to him I would like to come here this is my very first time to be here so it is not going to my last and I when I come back to my country I would suggest to the government and to the people here that we should continue to strengthen our bilateral relations and these two countries are going to form a very firm foundation for a current international order and for an international order that is going to exist for the next 20, 30 years down the road Thank you so much