 Hi, my name's Leon Rowe, commodity trader and trading coach at tradingoneasy.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us and gold fundamental and technical analysis for the week ahead starting the 19th of February and please don't forget to like subscribe and share This video and my content with your fellow trading colleagues if you find the content I provide useful every week. So getting into the week ahead and it says here from Trading Economics at next week's Investors attention will turn to the FOMC minutes release with traders scrutinizing any insight on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates And that's really important because as I'll get into the video a bit later It's really about in the direction of Forex pairs determined on Which central bank will be cutting their interest rates first versus Later on so almost like leading and lagging and so The Federal Reserve at the moment their rate cuts are being pushed back It was expected in March and now it's it looks like the June is the is the price All the time when they're looking to price in the market is looking to price in the rate cuts And that's due to stickier than expected inflation and I guess a better than expected economy anyways Simultaneously the flesh S&P Global US PMIs will offer an assessment of the month's economic performance beyond the US attention will extend to flesh PMIs for the Eurozone Germany France and the UK and Japan and the LFO business climate indicator in Germany and Canada's inflation rate will also be in the spotlight so lots going on not as much as last week and we'll get into Last week's data and I guess the potential impact that it will have on currencies But before we do get into that 22 I guess get into some trades and Trade analysis and last week. I actually didn't enter into any trades So it was one of these one of those rare weeks where Pretty much waiting for pullbacks and when you're trading technicals with fundamentals There are times where you have to kind of wait for the for the pullbacks to come in because really fundamentals means that you kind of you're determining where value is and You know bargain prices and cheap prices and discounts and sometimes there are no discounts, right? So I thought I'd go over Some trades that I'd taken couple of weeks ago in the last war the last kind of trades that I'd taken and entered and One of them was the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss breakdown really was taken this trade was taken on the the 2nd of February Friday and this was due to the Non-farm payrolls coming out much better than expected And I'm still in this trade as well. So I'm still swing trading this and so my final target Is the completion of this this unfair auction around the 18994 somewhere around there looking to take some profit and I've already taken half profit as well off of this start this trade is really a break-even trade and And so going back to let me just sorry zoom out a little bit I've zoomed in a bit too much on this if we go back to the To that date on in the in the discord group that I run Trading 180 on the second of the second basically, you know We were talking about it being a huge miss and I said jobs and inflation all points economy doing better than expected and sticky inflation Fed holding for longer and So Spencer had you know at the time he was looking at you know 107 1.07 50s on the EU and he reached his target and so The fellow was also saying that prices kind of moved to rapidly to enter and I said to him no need to chase I'm waiting for a candle close on to close in 25 minutes and then hopefully they will follow through I Cautious on a little bit of stop hunting, but ultimately this was the the entry right so that was the close that I was waiting for in 25 minutes which is on a four-hour timeframe and It did follow through right and so the trade is on its way It's just pulling back and hopefully more supportive data for the dollar will continue pushing prices higher I have moved my stop now up to just below this this entry or this candlestick here now and so I'm in I am in some profit so I can't lose Now my is my break-even price now is above my entry And like I said, I've already taken half profit off at a one-to-one and so This now is a profitable trade regardless of what happens if prices come down and stop me out. It's still a profitable trade The second trade that I guess I give a bit of an update on is the Aussie Swiss Frank and again, this was from a few weeks ago. I spoke about this During the week, I think it must have been the weekend of that video that I've made and This was again in the group on the second We were talking about this entry here and it was a stop hunt So I said everyone who's interested in going along in the Aussie Swiss. This is a nice stop hunt set up There will be volatility next week due to the RBA statement. So if you So you can ignore this setup and wait until after the statement if it seems too risky or you if you want to reduce your position size so I had entered into this trade as a stop-hand set up and Again just an update on on that trade one second It was here So the original entry Was this candlestick here and managed to get in on a second entry on a pullback a 50% pullback Which I ended up taking a one-to-one profit target on so that then makes it at least a break-even trade And I swing trading this position the original market entry position which now has reached up to a 2.4 2.4 1 2 1 now I have taken some profit off about 70% profit off of this swing trade With the anticipation that the rest of the 30% should move up to Complete this unfair auction here and also as well I have moved my stop-loss up to below this Swing right here. So my stop-loss now is Above my original entry I've taken 70% off of that trade and swing trading the rest and I'll just continue to trail my stop below Below certain daily swings until it reaches or if it reaches the highs and so Yeah, those are the trades that I mean and also there was one trader the Swiss Yen and many other guys know about the Swiss yen Trade that I was in and again, I did go over it in this In previous weeks and I'm actually profitable on that trade as well when I'm out of that trade So I'm actually flat now for the week Taking profit and waiting for some more setup. So That's really where I am In terms of the trades haven't had a losing trade in a while. So it's been all good over the past Maybe a few weeks now about three three weeks or so Definitely since the beginning of the the month and so That's the trade update. I'm flat on all trades And if I get into any new trades the guys in the group will know what trades setups I'm looking at as well as as Some other information if you do want to join the trading when they eat mentoring group and learn about the fundamentals and technicals I am opening up the mentoring around Easter time. So you've got a bit of time to ponder on whether you do want to join and watch a lot my YouTube videos and see if it's You know a way of trading that you would want to be interested in anyways Let's get into the weekly analysis and starting off as we usually do on the Dollar Index and this is an equally weighted dollar index. So this is not the DXY This is not the USDX. This is an equally weighted dollar index and I'll leave the description in the box below if you're watching this on YouTube on how to And why I use the equally weighted Calculation so I had the calculation and and the video explaining exactly why I use the equally weighted dollar index, but I'm Going forward looking at the dollar index Looking for really a bit of a more of a pullback. I need For me prices to come down a bit more. It has come down into this demand zone Which is definitely decent confidence if you have as you have demand and you also have resistance which is turn support I think a deeper pullback would be really nice to buy the dollar and my bias is really to buy the dollar continue to buy the dollar as I think the the dollar Is really kind of bucking the trend in terms of it's the expectation of the market, right? in terms of rate cuts and so There was some news here this week that was talking about sticky inflation reaffirms the feds Caution on rate cuts and so US the US inflation Failed to moderate as hoped with housing costs and fairs medical care and recreation all keeping the run rate for Month-on-month inflation hot their favorite measure of inflation the core PC e deflate and maybe cooling nicely But the mixed messages mean that the Fed can't relax with little inclination for imminent cuts So, I mean it doesn't necessarily make any sense for the Fed to cut, you know in in March At their next meeting and so the market is kind of expecting that it's likely to be in In June is the next actual highest probability Of course the data needs to support that narrative the data doesn't support the narrative then Of course that that can actually change if for example inflation starts to come in a lot lower Then the Fed are likely to cut sooner, but as long as inflation remains continues to remain sticky I think the dollar or should continue to be a buy so any pullbacks on the dollar for me Buying opportunity is not necessarily on the dollar index. So moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen the yen this week had some And not so good news the yen Japan's economy actually went into a recession Unexpectedly contracted for a second quarter. So Disappointingly the Japanese economy has fallen back into a technical recession on the back of weak domestic demand The Bank of Japan will likely now become even more cautious about any policy change We believe the June rate hike option is still valid But with a growing possibility of a delay until the third quarter of 2024 so they're quite pessimistic in terms of the Bank of Japan and when they're likely to Hikrates in the Bank of Japan are the only central bank looking to hike rates this year. So when we look at the Dollar yen with the dollar actually, you know, moving to the upsides in terms of it being stronger than expected I do think that the the dollar is definitely a buy but as we get higher into this 151 152 area What tends to happen is is that the Bank of Japan may look to actually Intervene to stop the yen from Depreciating too much because a devalued currency adds to inflation and Last thing they want at the moment in a contraction And and the recession is for inflation to keep rising. That's also known as stagflation. So We are into what is known as an intervention zone. So the higher we go is the more likely the Bank of Japan are likely to You know Intervene and try and push the prices down. So although this is a pair that I'm keenly watching. It's definitely gonna be a difficult trade in terms of Timing when that intervention may Look to happen, right? So you've got an area of supply here It could even happen just above the level in a potential stop hunt But if you're looking at just basically pullbacks and buying dollar against against the yen Then I think any pullbacks into nice demand zone like around here is gonna be decent There is a smaller demand zone right here, which also occurred this week But probably a bit deeper pullback would be preferable and you've also got a level of resistance there as well as some compliments Looking at the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD this week did break above that level in fact It was a nice stop hunt above a nice clear and obvious level when into that supply zone on the daily and then you know rejected the CAD for me is It's still a buy we do have inflation data this this this week coming out and I think if again inflation remains sticky then the Canadian dollars should appreciate now I'm not necessarily trading it against the US dollar against weaker currencies like the Swiss franc But if you are looking to be a buyer of the Canadian dollar Then you're really looking for any pullback into a supply zone before looking at going short And if you're looking to buy the US dollar against the Canadian dollar Then you're looking for really pullbacks into these zones before looking at going long But it's not necessarily a pair that I'm interested in as you've got two strong currencies really Completing against each other. So it's a harder read to be fair. So yeah, I'm gonna Not put this on my on my list of currencies to trade looking at the pounds and the pounds this week also had inflation data, sorry GDP data come out which was It's very disappointing but even though it was kind of expected and it says here UK growth outlook Improving despite fourth quarter setback. So there's a bit of a positive spin on on the UK recession It says here the UK may have met the definition of a technical recession in the fourth quarter But the data appears to be hugely volatile Beneath the surface and in any case the growth outlook is looking brighter for 2024 Remember to that the Bank of England is focused not on the growth But services inflation and wages as a guide for when to begin cutting rates and so You know with that being said the that the pound necessarily hasn't sold off as much because although again the UK economy went into a recession It hasn't necessarily swayed the Bank of England's decision as to when they are likely to cut rates Therefore, you're not seeing necessarily a massive sell-off. I mean initially I thought there would be definitely a bit of a sell-off But you know the devil is always in the details when it comes to understanding, you know the fundamentals So It's not just a case of you know, just sell sell sell or buy buy buy you have to really understand the nuances And so although I don't think that the pound is going to be a buy. I definitely don't think that the For now, I don't think that the the pound is also a straight sell There are reasons to buy or sell and also buy and sell the the pound again, if the market kind of shrugs off the the GDP data because remember as well GDP data is lagging doesn't mean it's bad But it is lagging meaning that we're getting fourth quarter data in the first quarter because there's a lot of information to calculate for the economists to recalculate and Come up with obviously the GDP number. So if the market is more focused on You know this quarter and whether this growth this quarter and it was decent retail sales that came out I think it was where was it? It was Was it this yeah retail sales came out for at 3.4 percent on Friday and so That is a bit more forward-looking and so if there's still positive data Showing that the economy isn't necessarily as bad or the first quarter data won't be as bad and continue to contract and the Pound and the UK economy won't stay in a recession then In fact, you could see a little bit of upside or at least what was known as a ranging market Or you know what I termed to be an auction. So The pounds you can find reasons to buy or sell the pound at the moment But against the dollar, I think it should I mean, I think this area here is actually quite nice for a sell this a supply zone right here is decent for a Short trade. So let's see what happens There especially the top end of this zone is quite nice But either way you can look for reasons to buy the dollar or sell or buy the pound But again, not really a pair that I'm very interested in at the moment because the fundamentals aren't 100% Clear and no really clear divergences the pound Yen again pounds yen Not selling off as much because at the same time you had the UK recession announced you had the Japanese recession so Yeah, it seems like Again to two currencies where the market may look to shrug off the data and so again, not really a pair that I'm looking to trade but from a purely technical Perspective, I think the nearest demand zone to look for any kind of buy trade is going to be down Down here if you're looking to short the the market I think you'd have to really look for these These 2015 highs That would definitely be a level in an area that you may want to look towards or If you get proven supply the prices, you know, do come down Then you're looking for a pullback into a supply zone before then going short So that would really be what you're looking for in terms of Trading this pair, but ultimately again right now this week. Not nothing. I'm not something I'm looking at taking Euro dollar and Euro dollar is something that I am interested in in terms of some shorts So this week we did have prices come down into a 107 round number And that demand zone it did bounce off of there But we also Have a supply zone now. I am more of a buyer of the dollar over the Over the euro still not convinced that the euro is a buy as of yet not against the dollar anyway, and so there is scope to potentially look for Some sell trades intraday here or preferably Probably a bit further up It pulls back around here now again, there is some PMI data coming out for for europe this week And so if it does come out Yeah, PMI flash if it does come out stronger than expected or better than expected and it's forecasted at 4.0 Sorry 46.1 Then that may have Maybe a marginal effect. I think if it comes out weaker than expected then Then you should see this probably roll over And then you've got business climate, but Yeah, I don't think that the the that europe is really a buy just yet germany is suffering And in fact, there is actually We've been reading articles that there's potential for parity to come into play or at least the 104s Could come into play if the if europe is seen as um Cutting rates sooner than the then the fed right and so This is a article from bloomberg. It says here euro area economy is losing momentum. EU says slashing outlook So they've downgraded their economic growth forecasts and the euro economy the euro area economy is entering 2024 is entering 2024 on a weaker footing than previously expected according to new european union forecasts Anticipate another year of subdued growth. So again, not looking great I mean growth is is is contracting not just in europe everywhere, but it's you know The question to ask is who's the best or the worst and um, Although there is contraction is expected in in the u.s. They're still Um better placed or but yeah, I would say better place than they in europe in terms of the economy and also as well um Interest rates or the potential for interest rates. So, um Shorts for me at these levels is really what i'm looking for on a callback Euro yen i'm interested in this as well still interested in this I do think that there's the potential for Either a stop hunt either a trade now a stop hunt above the level or move up to the supplies And again, I think that i've been kind of determined by what happens This week with european data and there is actually Japanese data says bank of balance of trade. Sorry And balance trade typically doesn't necessarily have a meaningful impact on price anyway, but I'm looking for potential shorts on this. So shorts right now. I haven't entered into anything, but i'm looking At a potential setup if it doesn't occur, then i'm looking for moves A bit higher in anticipation that the bank of japan will Kind of move past or shrug off the recession and still look to Potentially hike rates If you're looking for any any buy trades and they're going to buy the euro yen, then you're looking at a pullback into that demand zone right around here before looking at going long or Um further down into The one five nines before looking at Any kind of long trades and my bias is to look for short still euro pound And again, although europe Well the pound i guess uh and the uk are in a in a recession is the headlines if the market is looking past there is the the recession and the bank of england is still looking to actually Uh Cut rates later than europe then any pullbacks really should be seen as Shorting opportunities and i still think that this is really the the direction of travel the path of these resistance up into these areas um of supply and uh and resistance so um if prices do come up to Around these areas the 85 or 86 round number or 85 90s Then in fact, I will look for some short trades around here as well. But again, it does depend on supporting fundamental data And when um, you know, we look at central bank forecasts, and just zoom out a little bit one second You'll see this is from i ng and what They've done is they come up with what they expect uh central banks To start doing in um this year in terms of their Monetary policy and whoever they're likely to you know when they're likely to cut and you can see that i ng which is a dutch bank they Forecast the federal reserve and europe to start cutting at the same time which it looks like it is for for may right for may or june Um, and in fact the bank of england right which is the gray line to actually start cutting later Um, the bank of japan also to start um hiking It looks like after after maybe around about may as well. So you've got Out of the you know the pound the dollar and the euro It looks like the pounds should probably be a bit more supported Currently if this does come through but against all of those three really When the bank of japan do start to kick start their hiking cycle Then um the yen should really be the buy out of um against all three of those uh those currencies As you'll start you'll see the divergence start to take place where you have you know cuts happening um on the fed bank of england and europe and then you have japan who are looking to hike so you've got Then nice divergence or convergence trade um idea going on here for at least the rest of the year but again this needs to um kick in start to kick in before um Actually now we can say before but um it starts to look like it wants to happen Uh, it's like a buy the rumor sell the fact but the data needs to support Uh this this this forecast And so um, that's where I am with the euro pound Um The ozzie dollar again bouncing off of this demand down here I do think the australian dollar is a buy again not necessarily against the us dollar But um if you are looking to be a buyer of the um of the australian dollar against the us dollar, then you're looking for um Really actually matter that you're looking for buys in demand And if you're looking to be a buyer of the us dollar, yeah against australian dollar Then you're looking for shorts at the uh supply zone, but again not really a pair that i'm looking to trade um currently and then finally gold again there was some good news um Last week for the dollar and gold uh fell Uh sticky inflation and then we've had a bit more of a pullback But I do think that gold is a decent buyer as we start to you know, um Uh at least Move towards the middle and the uh end of the year and once the federal reserve do start their cutting cycle Then I believe that gold would be a really nice buy The timing of this right now isn't necessarily fantastic in terms of looking for um buy trades for gold Of course, you know, you're at the mercy really of the federal reserve But if you are looking to uh to short gold Then the um then basically what you're saying is you're looking to buy the dollar and vice versa, but um At the moment. I really haven't got uh a short term bias on this because I am actually bullish on the dollar So I mean if i'm bullish on the dollar then you know, I'd really be looking for uh short trades in and around this area Here so yeah, that's where we are in terms of uh gold But if there are if there is any uh dollar news that comes out where it's likely to Push the fed to cut rates sooner Then you're going to start to see or you should start to see gold Move to the upside. So uh, that's it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Feel free to again Like subscribe share the content and um, I will see you all in the next video. Take care