 There was a long time where I didn't know when slash if this day would come because there was a lockout happening. And I was like, OK, I've got my honeymoon at the end of the month. Maybe by May 3rd, when I get back, we'll actually be looking at legitimate and MLB games, maybe spring trainings going on by that time. May, maybe June is more action talking baseball. But we're here. It is April 6 tomorrow's opening day. We got actual baseball games and real MLB DFS slates to discuss. And I'm pretty pumped. We've already lost a couple of games for opening day. But still it's going to be a fun time and hopefully we can win some money. Pad that bankroll and start ourselves in a high note for MLB DFS. Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down Thursday's opening day MLB DFS slate. It is a seven game slate with lockset for 2.20 p.m. Eastern on FanDual.com for tomorrow. We're recording this day ahead of time because I want to give you more shelf life to listen to this podcast, get prepared for tomorrow because it is an early lock. So 2.20 p.m. Eastern Thursday is lock for this seven game slate. Now I will note I'm recording this on Wednesday. So there could be more postponements. They've already been two so far, the Red Sox and Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Bold already postponed. So those players are still in the player pool. Make sure you do not put them in your lineup. Your first tip for MLB DFS. Don't use guys who are not playing. I still think we could see some weather for this slate. There is some rain in the forecast for the Nationals and the Mets on Thursday. That's part of why the Mets haven't officially announced a starter. Maybe that's like a tinfoil hat type thing, but they think that it could get postponed and Max Scherzer is expected to be good to go for Friday. I'm assuming for right now that Tyler McGill is the starter for this game. If it does proceed, but just keep in mind that that Mets Nationals game could be in a bit of danger in terms of some weather for tomorrow. Other weather for tomorrow's slate, wind speeds and Wrigley are going out at 14 miles per hour, but it's also just 44 degrees. Now wind speed in Wrigley does matter a lot. Typically it's air is up for offense. If the wind is blowing out here, I would lower expectations a decent amount because of the temperature. Temperature matters a lot for MLB DFS. As we'll discuss a lot throughout this entire month and throughout today, 44 degrees very low coldest in the slate. So keep that in mind with the winds blowing out at Wrigley. That is the coldest game on the slate, but the Royals versus Guardians and the Mets versus Nationals both at 50 degrees. That's also pretty rough for hitting braze versus reds a bit better 61 degrees winds blowing out at 20 miles per hour sounds more neutral. Once you account for the wind and the temperature, the two prime spots for hitting in terms of weather are the Angels versus the Astros and Padres versus Diamondbacks. Both those games will have ideal hitting conditions. So I'd upgrade hitters in those games, downgrade pictures there. We'll be talking about those two games in our stacking section later on. If you are a new listener to the solo shot, this is our daily MLB DFS podcast here on the Number Fire daily fantasy podcast feed. What we'll do every weekday here around post around 9 30 or so Eastern. I will go through pitchers go through three pitchers. I like two guys in any tier and then one value pitcher. I will go through my three favorite stacks for the day stacking for those of you who are not familiar with MLB DFS is pairing teammates together preferably for on FanDuel because every run scored every RBI you get some double dipping chances, but also because there's no clock in Major League Baseball every hit from a guy in that order benefits everybody else on that team. Every other hitter on that team. So stacking is huge for MLB DFS. That's why our focus on hitters were revolver on stacking finish up with three things that I want to watch for that day could be another picture. I want to discuss why I'm not on someone other stacks you consider some one-off batters stuff like that and then we will do some home run calls at the end just for funsies because why not if you want to get the solo shot in your in your podcast catcher wherever it may be each and every day hit subscribe. We are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast to search for the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you consume your podcast and while you're there leave us a rating and review as well on the same feed. We have us CV Austin Swain I've got NASCAR that will be on Friday for Martinsville Tom Beck you talking NHL DFS NBA wrapping up here shortly but still some NHL stuff via Tom there and of course Brandi Goduele and I breaking down PGA each week. The Masters podcast if you're listening here on Wednesday is posted on the number fired daily fantasy podcast even also over on the Fandall YouTube page. So again hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well while you're listening for today you can start filling out some lineups over at Fandall dot com because they have a big big big contest up for opening day go to Fandall dot com make your lineup of players sit back and enjoy the start of America's most beautiful game for only four dollars you can enter a lineup and compete for a chance to win part of the four hundred thousand dollar prize pool head to Fandall dot com today and get ready for MLB opening day with Fandall daily fantasy eligibility restrictions apply go to Fandall dot com or download the Fandall app for more details. Let's dive into our pitching preview for this opening day Slate Corbin Burns is the highest salary gone Fandall for Thursday. He is eleven thousand two hundred dollars we got Shohei Otani at ten thousand five hundred dollars because Otani is a pitcher you will not be able to use as a hitter in a DFS on Thursday keep that in mind because the angels may be relevant there later on Shane Bieber checks in at ten thousand forty dollars you Darvish is ninety forty dollars Max Freed ninety three and then Tyler Malley from Reval Des and Adam Wainwright are the others eight thousand dollars are higher now a new thing for this year is I have my own strikeout projections for this year so I want to have control over pitch counts which relevant samples to dig in you know opponent stuff and all of that so that's why I'm going with my own strikeout projections for this year and when I run them for Thursday Corbin Burns is atop the list in a tier of his own and I'll put him atop my list to and rank him number one for DFS for Thursday space in the Cubs and again wind speeds projected to be out around fourteen miles per hour which is bad for pitching but it's just forty three degrees that will help partially offset the wind and the good thing here and this is pertinent again for today specifically but also for the entirety of the first couple weeks Burns as pitch count is built up he went seventy four and eighty two pitches and his final two spring outings which means he should be able to go ninety ninety five somewhere in that range for this slate and a lot of guys on the slate won't be able to get there it's a very good number ninety ninety five Burns is facing the Cubs their active roster had a twenty five percent strikeout rate against righties last year you can find the active roster numbers by going to fangrass clicking on the team stats there's an active roster button click that and that'll show you guys who are currently on that team what they did last year that twenty five percent mark is the highest on the slate for Thursday and Burns himself as you know was nasty he did make adjustments after the sticky stuff discussion he threw more curveballs across his final fifteen starts and then fifteen starts he had a two point eight nine skill interactive er right with a thirty three percent strikeout rate he allowed just a thirty two percent heart rate so he was not what he was before the sticky stuff discussion but still really freaking good he gets a great matchup here he's built up and I'm going to make him the top guy on the slate trusting my numbers and putting Corbin Burns definitively number one if playing single entry I know he'll be popular I would say just ride Corbin Burns differentiate from there because he is to me clearly the top guy on the slate the park for you Darvish is not nearly as good as the one for Corbin Burns because it is one of those two warm games on this slate if Darvish were facing a different offense you can easily justify potentially stacking against him I think that's kind of the it's extremely should go to with weather for the slate but I am gunning for upside here and Darvish has that the weather doesn't matter as much for upside a manager for not as much for upside I think there's enough upside to put Darvish second on the list for Thursday Darvish is facing the Diamondbacks their active roster in eighty six WRC plus versus righties last year they will strike out as well a twenty four percent strikeout rate versus righties Darvish did struggle at times last year much to my bank rolls disappointment for sure he tried to rain things in though by lowering his slider used over his final ten starts typically I don't like that we want more sliders fewer sinkers Darvish didn't do that but he still had a thirty percent strikeout rate across those final ten starts he was getting whiffs even though he may not have been optimizing his pitch mix to just get strikeouts and Darvish is stretched out he should be able to go about ninety five or so on Thursday I've got you projected for six point nine seven strikeouts outside of Corbyn Burns nobody else is projected within a full strikeout of Darvish so really it's those two at the top by a wide margin I can accept some risk due to the bad park for hitting when that's the case so I will put Darvish number two and ninety four dollars and the birds in a tier by itself but I also think that Darvish in a tier of himself of his own as well so to me it's it's Burns definitively one Darvish definitively two and then sorting things out from there now the third slot here on the podcast will always be someone at nine thousand dollars lower to give you a value option if you want to go there typically I do spend up a pitcher and MLB DFS because if you want to get strikeouts you got to pay the piper and strikeouts are pretty much everything on Fandula pitcher so if we're going down to the the value tier I do think that there are two guys who are at least decently interesting I'm going to talk about Adam Wainwright here it will discuss Patrick Corbin and things to watch Wainwright is not the type of pitcher I like I just talked about strikeouts he's not that guy is a good pitcher but he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts with three points per strikeout on Fandula they are huge both for floor and upside you talk about them for upside but they also do Jack your floor quite a bit as well they give you more wiggle room to make mistakes Wainwright doesn't really get that wiggle room he increases the sinker uses over his final 15 starts last year against sinker's bad sliders good in terms of strikeouts so that's knowing and not surprisingly the strike area for Wainwright was just 19 percent across those final 15 starts that's rough so on most slates I am not touching Adam Wainwright but this is not most slates we've lost Nathan Evaldi Garrett Cole Robbie Ray Joe Ryan all guys who you know in theory could have been potential options for DFS they're not here because of postponements and a lot of the guys who are good like Shane Bieber others they're not built up in terms of their pitch count Wainwright is I think he should be able to go pretty deep in this game around 95 or so pitches and again a lot of the other options on this slate aren't quite that stretched out Wainwright is also facing a poor offense he gets the Pirates here they have an 85 WRC plus against righties they did last year their current active roster did they also the lowest isolated slug percentage on this slate so not a lot of power not a big strikeout team but also not a low strikeout team so with Wainwright you're getting a good real-world pitcher who is stretched out and facing a bad offense typically that's not enough I needed it more than that usually but I think on this specific slate it is again I would consider Patrick Corbin as a more volatile option maybe higher upside but Wainwright does work for me at $8,000 so to me the top two pitchers today or for Thursday are Burns and Darvish and then the top value play is Wainwright we'll talk about Patrick Corbin later on let's move now into the stacking section of this podcast for today and again this is going to be a section throughout this month we talk a lot about weather I want to seek out warm weather at hitter and that's tough because there are only two spots on the slate expected to have temperatures above 61 degrees but they're both at 89 so the the Delta between these two games and the rest is pretty big that is the Angels and the Astros and the Padres and Diamondbacks so I'm going to start stacks here by talking up the Padres because I think that they are the no-brainer top stack on the slate they're facing Madison Bumgarner mad bum hasn't been too shabby this spring like he's you know he's as Velo is up that's not bad but wasn't getting a lot of whiffs despite the velocity being up I think that means we can still stack against him here Bumgarner as you know did struggle last year he did get some better results down the stretch he had a 4.28 ERA in his final 12 starts and he was starting more change ups so maybe you look at that and say okay figured things out got better results didn't let up a lot of hard contact either so that could explain why things got better for Bumgarner but he's still in just a 4.87 skill interactive ERA in those starts with an 18% strike out ray and a 44% fly ball ray those are pretty rough marks pretty rough peripherals across the board now this Padres offense is not elite by any means I'd prefer them against a righty for sure because we can you know a couple more guys are in play there but I still think we should stack them here despite the fact they're not an offense I'm super super drawn towards with tautis being out I think that they're still okay and okay could be enough here given the park factor given the matchup I think that's enough where the Padres are the top stack and it's also good spot to roll out Luke Voight in his debut he did struggle last year bad results of the Yankees but he had a 360 expected weighted on base average according to baseball savants he lost some skills more strike out stuff like that but he also did some bad luck in his career versus lefties Voight has a 252 ISO I think that he is a focal point on the slated just $2,500 because he has power good matchup good park for hitting that to me makes Voight a pretty solid option for DFS in his Padres review of course many Machado as well other guys available here for the Padres so they're okay despite the fact that it's not my favorite line up right now by any means moving to our second stack if this were a summer slate and like typical slate MLB DFS things fully wrapped up I would never stack the angels because I like from Reval there's a lot I think he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground get some strikeouts and he's a decent pitcher but again weather matters a lot and they've got great weather for hitting the angels do I think that's enough to make them justifiable behind the Padres for Thursday Valdez again is good he had a 3.790 array for the full season and actually he did get better down the stretch when he cut back on his changeup so I like him I like from Reval that's but there are some things that make stacking against him viable here we don't have a lot of great options for stacking Valdez had just a 21% strikeout rate that means opponents put the ball and play a lot and balls and play our chances for upside DFS and 47% of those balls and play were hard hit hard hit here means exit velocity of 95 plus miles per hour according to the data over at stack cast so those fly balls or those balls and play weren't in the air like we'd like but they were hit decently hard and we also did see Valdez drop off on the road he had a 19% strikeout right there versus 25% at home so Valdez is good and again typically I wouldn't do this but I think the weather and the lack of other options elsewhere does push us towards doing this so I will stack the angels here you look at the angels numbers versus lefties they were not good just a middle in WRC plus but that was 47 plate appearances by Mike Trout 80 by Anthony Rendon 45 by Joe Adele if you add up the numbers of those three give them full years of health that should help this team out a ton so Rendon $3200 Adele $2,700 if using those two plus Max Stasi at $2,400 helps you get to Mike Trout but I believe this 42 we can party so I think Adele Rendon key focal points I don't think Trout would be too hard to get to even in your burns on us because you can't use a Tani for this slate so I do think that the angels despite the fact I do like Valdez very much in play for this slate as for the third stack I'm going to go with the braves here I broadly also really like Tyler Malley so I spent most of the the angel section talking up against him probably do the same thing here with Malley I will probably use him as a pitcher at some point this year but there are a couple of factors working against him the first one is that this is a tough matchup for Malley even with no Ron Lacuna Jr. the braves are a very good team their active roster led this slate by a wide margin in both ISO and fly ball rate versus writings that's rough in general but Malley also let up a 37% fly ball rate so he led up some fly balls and he can dabble in some long balls for sure it is also a warmer park here than some other spots 61 degrees wind is blowing out those are good things for hitting we've also seen the braves have a good blend to both the righties and lefties in this lineup because Malley was weirdly good versus lefties last year in terms of his strike out rate and contact suppression and the top three guys in this lineup should bat left handed so that might be a concern of Malley and the way he played last year but we have Austin Riley Marcel Azuna Adam Deval and my handed batters in this lineup who has some power so this is not a floor stack most stacks aren't because hitting is volatile but I think that the upside is there for sure Malley could be a very effective so the floor here is not good I do like the ceiling though that's why I'm willing to stack the braves here even while acknowledging that Malley at least in my eyes is a good pitcher looking at this braves team I think Adam Deval specifically is going to be a really good tournament play for opening day which should lower his roster rate but also he doesn't have the platoon advantage people see righty on righty they're not going to go right towards Duval even if they do decide they want to stack the braves but Duval versus righties a 292 ISO last year 52% fly ball rate and his salary is $2,800 so I love the outside of Adam Deval I'll be very heavy on him here as a tournament type option I also broadly think that Olson is going to obliterate things this year so I'll be high on him even though Malley is good against lefty to me the focal points of a brave stack Duval for tournaments Olson overall I think that despite the fact that Malley is very good the braves are a team we can feel good about for stacking on this slate let's go now to things to watch three other things I have my eyes on for this slate as mentioned before I do think that Patrick Corbin is in play if the Mets and Nationals actually do play that game Corbin was legitimately bad last year like you could stack against him and he's facing the Mets they should be an above average team against lefties this year based on some of the guys I've added but Corbin has stretched out he pitched really well in the spring and we know he has been a quality pitcher in the not terribly distant past I've got Corbin projected for 4.97 strikeouts it's actually a hair more than Wainwrights I'd rank him below Wainwright but we'll likely have shares and malt the entry Corbin at least has a path to being one of the top pitches in the slate and I think that I'm okay taking a leap on a guy was not good last year because there's a path to him being good this year the one thing we didn't really talk about in the warm weather for either stacking or pitching was the Astros they're facing Shohei Otani the Astros are a low strikeout team that's why Otani was not in the top options a pitcher that hurts in quite a bit Otani is still projected to rank 3rd in strikeouts for me but it does hurt him quite a bit Otani does give up some fly balls and the Astros won't be as strikeout team so I could see stacking the Astros here it's very tough mentally to stack against such a good and fun pitcher but I will do it at times just because the weather is so good they're a good offense Otani can let us some fly balls so I don't want to go there because I like Otani but I think that it's at least an option for today I probably would rather stack the Astros and use Otani but could go either way Otani is really good so that's a discussion I'll be having with myself for the next 25 or so hours two offenses and bad weather I will consider stacking today are the Brewers and the Guardians both these teams are facing low strikeout pitchers again that means more balls and play allowed Hendricks Kyle Hendricks really struggled this spring that does boost the Brewers to it's a big downgrade due to weather but again the Brewers might get a slight bump back up because of the wind so I'd probably rank the Brewers fourth for stacking I'd go the Guardians fifth against Zach Reiki and his return to the Royals just kind of cool but Cardinals are consideration for stacking two against JT Brew Baker higher strikeout guy then we may have a perception of Brew Baker being but I mean the Cardinals are there and then the Astros finally would be in play at some point as well let's finish up here with some Dinger calls for this opening day slate as always we'll do one boring call in one fun one the boring call just who I think at home run you know we're not going contrarian here here I will go with Nanny Machado he didn't show a lot of power versus lefties last year but the building blocks for power he had some plot balls decently hard hard hard hard hard hit rate didn't strike out a lot so I'll go Nanny Machado as my first boring home run call the fun one I will go Adam Duvall mentioned him before Mali has those we're diverse splits versus righties and lefties Duvall tons of power batting lower in the order should help us get him a lower roster rate so the official home run calls for opening day will be Nanny Machado and Adam Duvall that's all we have here for today on the solo shop but I saw some people over in the YouTube comments like Sivan asking for some bets for opening day Sivan don't worry we're going to have a full betting stream tomorrow on the Fando YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages be me and Tom Becky out you know Tom he's on sports good a lot he feels with me on the solo shot really good guy in terms of like Dinger bets so I'm going to have Tom on we're going to go through our favorite bets for opening day from one to 2 p.m.eastern on the Fando YouTube Twitch Facebook strikeout projections how they compare to K props there are three money lines I like right now we'll talk about those in the show as well and I want to hear your favorite bet so if you're laying down some bets for opening day put those in the comments tomorrow on that stream I see Bergen Lydes is talking about some bets as well so if you want to talk some betting we'll be here tomorrow 1 to 2 p.m.eastern on Thursday breaking down our favorite bets myself and Tom Becky yo and talking about your favorite bets as well busling out some same game parlays tomorrow check us out right there as far as the podcast goes make sure you are subscribed to the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed to get the solo shot every week day around 9 30 p.m.eastern breaking down my thoughts in the slate it'll go up on the YouTube page won't typically be live like it is right now we'll post it after the fact but that should be up around between 9 30 and 10 2 so subscribe to the YouTube page hit like there and also follow the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed if you have questions for me it's a new year totally understandable hit me up on Twitter I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in forward today good luck to you with your MLB D-F-S Lennis we'll talk to you once again Friday for our first foolish slate of the year this has been the solo shot right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network