 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a night where multiple screens are required We of course have the NFL draft, which I love and will always adore but also For different playoff games across the NBA and the NHL for today We are here to break down all four of those games with Tom Vecchio getting his read his favorite bets across them at Fandall Sportsbook And then I'll swing back talk some NASCAR and Formula one towards the end of this show This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here is mentioned by Tom Vecchio. You can find him on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom You can find his work over at numberfire.com Tom my goodness. What a fun night of sports We got going here for today. How you doing? I'm doing great. Yes, certainly a very exciting time as you mentioned The draft is happening tonight. I will certainly have that up. It's probably gonna be muted I can you know, you can get the picks on Twitter before they actually happen on TV So certainly be following that but of course we have three very important playoff games tonight I am ready to go not to mention some MLB. I am not surprised that the draft could could not unseat the Rangers I think right we all could have predicted that one minus 15,000 Would it would have been the Rangers to the primary screen how many screens we have firing for tonight? It's gonna be three plus my phone. Okay that counts, right? But that's a fourth one, right? I'm not watching anything on my phone. It's just I'll be placing the bets on my phone. Okay, and then How do we count like so MLB TV you can watch in a quad box does that count for four screens or is that one screen? Oh one screen It's the it's the actual quantity of screens not what you're watching because I could bring up I could split screen every screen in that, you know, I could bring up two hockey games and just put them on You know in minute, you know half half nap I've done that like you minute you like have so you have like the half side and then I'm doing using my hands Which you can't it's not useful for people that watching YouTube like you have the half screen with the quad box And the other half you have half one game on top one game on bottom. That's six games The quad box is kind of clunky. They're mobile They're like smaller version site is not great for MLB TV So you can't really minimize that to a half screen as well, but like or a quarter screen I guess I should say but I can get six The question is do you have sound on for multiple them at the same time? No, I would go nuts I have sound on zero usually to be fully honest But that's might be down at the same time that's it depends it depends on how invest I am if it's like an NBA playoff game and I've actually had more Interested in the NBA this year because we've been talking about it is so much I will have the sound on for that Otherwise, I'm like if there's no NBA and I'm just watching baseball I may or may not be playing my formula one video game as well And I have to have headphones in to know when the strategy is to talking me Hey, it's about to rain buddy and I'm like, oh gosh, I guess we got to bring KMAG in the pits You know just do you know got a sand top everything so Maybe maybe this is just further evidence of my inability to focus on anything at one time We're gonna dive in and talk about those NBA and NHL games and again We'll talk some formula one and NASCAR towards the end of the show in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you want some NFL draft thoughts for tonight, we talked about that with Dr. Ed Feng back on Tuesday Check out his favorite bets there over on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the Fandall YouTube page You can check out all these shows on the Fandall YouTube page Subscribe there hit the like button the thumbs up button if you like what you see or if you're listening on the podcast feed You must say five star rating over on Apple podcasts Let's start things off with the one NBA game of fortnight Tom That is the Celtics and the Hawks right now the Celtics seven point favorites total here is 232 kind of looked like the Celtics might ice things off earlier on but Hawks were able to win in game five Now there's seven point dogs here in game number six How do you see things playing out and which props are you targeting here for the Celtics and the Hawks? Yes, certainly a very interesting series considering the Hawks were able to win when they did not have did John de Murray the other night He was suspended for one game This is I would say a bit more interesting of a series than I initially anticipated We saw the Celtics, you know, I'm looking very strong during The the regular season and the Hawks they're playing team everyone has their like preconceived notions It's like okay, the Celtics should be winning this for one, you know, maybe even four zero and that really hasn't been the case when it comes to tonight I see this as a Kind of no nonsense game from the Celtics We've seen some pretty strong quotes from Tatum and Brown over the past You know week or so where they have to come out with energy every game They were referencing games last year that were closeout games that they were not giving full effort or they thought they could Have a good game and not bring it 100% so that's the kind of overall mindset I'm bringing instead and that means a lot of unders and that starts with game under under 232 I'm not seeing a whole lot of points scored in this one despite what we've seen from the first few games of the series We have seen I would say much more scoring than I initially anticipated So starting off under 232 for the game and then my favorite player prop is gonna be Jalen Brown under two and a half made Threes that's sitting on minus 115 You know, he's been over this mark in the last two games But like I said, he this is much more scoring than I anticipated in the first few games of series He was at two two and zero so he's barely hitting the over on this I'm not really worried about the past two games And if I'm expecting the under to hit overall not going to be over on three pointers the overs on points Whatever it might be Right, let's see if we can actually a same game parlay this puppy here as always not my Preferred route for playing things, but let's see if we can do it And yeah, we can okay, so it's plus two 27 you want to pair those together Obviously, they know that those two bets are correlated, which is why it's just plus two 27 But Jalen Brown under two and a half is minus 115 The under 232 is minus 110 right now at Vanduul sportsbook So it sounds like you're just overall vibe here is expecting more of a low-scoring game as a result of the self It's playing pretty high energy for tonight, right? And I think that also correlates with Jason Tatum over nine and a half rebounds minus 128 They the Celtics are a good defensive team It's just a fact, you know a couple games where the Hawks are putting up a lot of points I'm not really worried about overall Tatum has been over this mark in you know 10 11 12 rebounds in some of the games this series more rebounds mean more missed shots Which means less scoring so more and over on rebounds correlates with under total points So that's where I'm going. It is just a little bit of minus 128 as you can see. I think that's the expectation Again, some of these, you know, I don't want to take like some of these quotes like too too heavily, but You know, they have a good amount of experience like they lost in the finals last year They know what it takes to win They know that they don't want to go to a potential game seven like this is the time to kind of show what the Celtics are Capable on defense and that means a lot of just kind of traditional playoff basketball Yeah, okay So the bets Tom likes here for the NBA for tonight Celtics Hawks under 232 Jaylen Brown under two and a half made threes and minus 115 and Jason Tatum over nine and a half rebounds at minus 128 the more robust slate for tonight Tom is in the NHL three games They're beginning with the lightning in the Maple Leafs right now the Maple Leafs money line minus 156 The lightning are at plus 130 total here is six and a half. What do you see in this game for the first game of the night? Well, this is by far the most interesting game on the slate the Maple Leafs haven't made it out of the first round in Whatever it is the past 17 years They've lost the lightning in you know last year in seven games and this is like This is like the biggest hump that they have to get over is winning the first round and betting against the lightning is Obviously a very tough thing to do given their you know success in their recent history betting in favor of the Maple Leafs given their lack of success in literally almost two decades is also a very tough thing to do But you know, where would I be going for this? And that's probably me siding with the lightning and that's straight to a player prop and straight to their best player Nikita Kucherov Over three and a half mage over three and a half shots at plus one 18 And this comes down to the fact that the lightning are in an elimination game It's very clear and you know when I get to these certain circumstances about like what needs to happen if the lightning were to win this game and like what happens if they don't lose this game or obviously they're eliminated but like what Causes them to be eliminated and how does that happen? Well in my mind, I'm saying if Kucherov does not have over three and a half shots The lightning aren't doing something right to put themselves in a spot to win because they're facing elimination So if they want to stay alive, they have to rely on their best players and that's probably me Kucherov taking a lot of shots So in my mind, I'm I guess I'd be leaning with the lightning in this under my theory that Kucherov has to be taking shots because they're about to be eliminated And if so, what does that mean? Like they have to rely on these best players So I guess I would lean with the lightning. I'm not gonna bet on them But you get this whole sense that I'm going with like you're betting on the urgency without having it dictated by the results I think that's what that's a great way to put it. Yes. Yeah Because the shot one is more process oriented versus the plus 130 money line is results oriented and you know I'd never gonna be opposed to that Kucherov over three and a half is plus 118 the money line again a plus 130 But it seems sounds like you think that the the lightning are able to get a win here again Not betting on it, but it sounds like that's your your sentiment on this game and keep this one going right like and you just use the same example for you know, NBA like if You know, you talk you were targeting LeBron's points prop like if LeBron doesn't hit the over or you know He's not taking enough field goal attempts in elimination game Like the Lakers aren't doing something right or something went horribly wrong So it's the same thought process where I want to be sticking with what we know should be happening Given the circumstances of this game environment, which is an elimination And what should be happening is a lot of volume for Nikita Kucherov So plus 118 over three and a half is where Tom is going there Second game on the slate is the Rangers at the Devils again of much interest to you Tom The series tied up at 2-2 right now Devils minus 120 on the money line the Rangers even money Total is five and a half under is minus 120 over is minus 102 pretty even serious so far Tom What are you seeing here for game number five? That is immediately going with the under five and a half minus 120 The first few games certainly had a lot of goals five one for the Rangers in those games But you know, we have to take into account certain things game one The Devils scored the one goal via Jack Hughes on a penalty shot, right? And so that's obviously very fluke. That's something that rarely happens in a normal regular season game And the Rangers also got an empty net game so an empty net goal in that game to end it So we're really looking at a game that didn't have six real goals It kind of had four and then two most recent games. They were dead unders the whole time so You see the series and say, okay Half the games have gone over half the games have under but we have to take into context how the goals were scored in Some of those first two games only see empty net goals You see these penalty shots like that's not a real indication of scoring So really like three and a half of the games have gone under at least in my mind So that's the way I'm looking at it means siding with the under yet again because Back great games from the Rangers to start horrible games from the Rangers in the next team It's actually the reverse from the Devils They played terrible in the first two games and awesome in the most recent games And they also have a very interesting dynamic where they're starting this essentially third string goalie for the Devils and he's been lights out and the Rangers don't have them figured out and That does that just means a lack of scoring on both sides. They're gonna be playing it super tight Give me the under 10 times out of 10 With a series where there's multiple games facing the same guy Do you tend to see teams figure it out against a more of an unknown type of goalie? Or is that not something that you can do in a such a short time frame? I mean, there's probably half examples of yes and half examples of no where You know pulling or I would say starting what is essentially an AHL goalie and him completely shutting a team down is not Necessarily uncommon especially when it comes to a regular season Because they just the teams just don't ratchet up the energy because they're oh, it's an AHL goalie You just kind of go about things the normal way and they'll get some pucks in that Well, it's play of intensity and the players in front of them are playing at such a high level that they're not getting clean shots So when the shots do get on that they're not the best quality So I don't really take that into account too much because if he's playing at the NHL level He's probably good enough to come away with wins which he's clearly doing right now And this is Akira Schmidt whom referring to the third-string goal that Devils had been starting over the past two games All right, so we're banking on him keeping it up under five and a half is minus 120 right now Fandle sports But anything else you like in that game Tom? You know, I don't want to be biased but the Mika's advantage of Mika's advantage at goal prop is at plus 200 And I think that number is just too big considering, you know, he had 39 goals this season He was one of their primary goal scores on the best goal scores in the league You know some quotes from him coming out saying that he feels the pressure to score because he's not scored in this series yet And you know throughout the regular season his goal prop is at you know, plus 110 plus 120 plus 25 It's at plus 200 now So I just think objectively the number is too big even though I love the under in this game I think the goal prop is still very good. He's on the first forward line He plays on the first power play and he normally plays, you know What I just dubbed the Alice Alex Ovechkin role in the power play where he sits on that circle ready for the one time or being a primary shooter So despite all these things leaning towards the under the goal number is just too big at plus 200 And it sounds like that's more of a lean for you versus the under is a firm thing you feel good about correct I'm fully on board the under my Slight personal bias in favor of the Rangers I guess you could say is pushing me towards the bandage at a plus 200. Okay, but we're liking the under here at minus 120 under five and a half for the Rangers and devils final game for tonight the Vegas nights of a chance to close out the Winnipeg Jets the money line for Vegas is minus 184 the money line for Winnipeg plus 152 total here It's also five and a half with plus 100 even money on the under a Vegas drop game one But they've won three straight cents. What do you see happening here in this potential closeout game? I do think the night's advanced tonight. That's my overall take the jets. They came out strong in game one They lost in double overtime in game three. There's a very tough spot for the Jets Number one one of their best Offensive players Nikolai Elers has been out the whole series. He has yet to play He's technically listed as a game time decision tonight. He's been a game time decision, you know in these games He hasn't played since April 11th Number two their second-line center mark Shifley has been ruled out of this game They said it's a chance that he could play in game six, but he is out for tonight The bottom six of their lineup for the Jets. This is does not look good This is not a group of players that really should be seeing having minutes and now we're missing two of their play We've already been missing one with Elers out now. They're missing Shifley So I love the under in this game But more importantly my favorite bet of this would be the Winnipeg Jets team total under two and a half and minus one twenty two Their total goals under two and a half Game one. They came out strong. Yes, they did. They scored five goals But realistically the defense from the Golden Knights has been stellar. Yes They scored four goals in this game that went to double overtime. It's a flukey game Those things happen But because they're missing these options of players if we look at the other two games I think those are more clear indications of what we should be seeing from this outcome I'm not seeing them scoring four or five goals when they're missing two of their top six forwards And we have players that we're playing on the third and fourth line are now playing primary offensive Roles when the Golden Knights are fully healthy at home So it's I had a lot of faith in the Jets I think Connor hell you buck is awesome in that you can legitimately steal a win for them But they just don't have a lot of help up front So the Jets under two and a half goals minus one twenty two at fangirls sportsbook He said he think the Vegas advances is it enough for you to bet the minus 184 money line or does the hell you buck stuff? right way to phrase I'm sure Push you away from that and more toward the Jets under goals. Yeah, I don't I don't love the minus 188 I would just stick with the team total because that should indicate that the Golden Knights are doing what they need to do, which is playing solid defense having solid goal coming away with wins Yeah, hell you buck's not a player I would go against that at plus 180 a goal. I should say I wouldn't go against it At minus 180 and the goal prompt for the Jets doesn't require you to do so So you can kind of navigate around that take your lean on the game and just apply it that way instead Alright, that is Tom of Vecchio. Make sure you check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Tom have a blast not just tonight, but also this entire weekend watching hockey watching baseball watching NBA We appreciate it as always. Good luck to you. We'll talk to you once again. I'm sure next week Yeah, thanks. I wouldn't say you necessarily have a blast when the Rangers are playing because it's obviously very stressful But I appreciate the sentiment. It's like play of hot things are going well So I hope they go well But play of hockey is like I want to you know scream and cry and throw up all at the same time If you could do that video it You know you could get some tiktok views out of that I'm sure so, you know if you're gonna do it at least get it on video. Alright, that's my advice for you Alright, thanks for having me. Yep as always check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Find his work over a number of fire and maybe on tiktok to eventually we can get the vomiting crying All that all at once at the exact same time We're gonna dig in and talk some NASCAR in Dover and talks in Formula one and Azerbaijan all here in just one second But first with the NBA playoffs here you can turn crossovers into cash on Fandall right now all customers and getting no sweat same game parley every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right. 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Yeah formula 1 as are by John and Baku We also have NASCAR in Dover rain hopefully gonna clear the way there We can be okay to get those races in but I want to start things off with formula 1 They've had a pretty long layoff here We're just allowed us to kind of forget how things may have gone early on this year But looking specifically at I was by John It's the same thing that I saw on Australia where there is one driver who I think Intervalued pretty much across the board and that driver to me is Lance stroll Lance stroll is plus 650 to podium He is minus 160 to finish top 6 and minus 300 to finish inside the top 10 I have value on stroll in all three of those markets stroll It's been pretty clear that he's not Fernando Alonso, but it's also clear that that Aston Martin I think has a second best car now You could question that based on what we saw in Australia where George Russell was fast before his issues Lewis Hamilton ran second behind Max Verstappen that day So Mercedes did make gains, but we also saw Aston Martin be pretty much right there Alonso is trying to run down Hamilton the entire ladder part of the race ever quite got there But he was pretty fast throughout that so stroll We see that the the speed for Aston Martin reflected in Alonso's odds But not very much in strolls because he's actually behind all of the Mercedes and Ferrari drivers in all three of these markets I don't think he should be based on how fast as Aston Martin has been If we look at the three races so far strolls had really good speed numbers in all three I don't think he was actually a threat for the podium in Australia despite finishing fourth there That was more so kind of a fluke based on chaos at the end But he was going to finish six most likely even if not for that so the top six market would have cashed I would take the same approach to stroll that we took for Australia where you put the majority of your bets Your your allocation on stroll in the top 10 and top six markets because those are more stable Do you show a good amount of value there? And then you put a sprinkle on the podium to give yourself upside Should stroll outrun Alonso should any of the red bulls have troubles? I think you'd be in contention for a podium if that were to happen. So to me Lance troll the most undervalued driver for Formula one and Azerbaijan I think that again the podium at plus 650 appealing But primary focus here is the t6 at minus 160 in the top 10 at minus 300 The other spot where I showed bit of value. I probably will not be taking this yet That's pure ghastly top six at plus 410 ghastly 22.8 percent for me to finish inside the top 10 Or inside the top six versus 19.6 percent implied He is really struggling qualifying both last year and this year Which means I'm kind of okay taking more of a wait-and-see approach. Maybe we can get value on ghastly later on in the weekend But that wanted to be in the case. I could fire later. Maybe get a better number If he doesn't qualify well again But I didn't consider it. So it's available if you're interested you want to add one more on Want a bit of longer odds ghastly plus 410 to finish inside the top six I think that does make sense But to me the primary bet for me for azerbaijan will be Riding the plant stroll in several different markets The nascar cup series is in adover this weekend as mentioned And we've had a couple weeks where I haven't had a lot of value and outrides outside of talladega Which is kind of all I had was outrides But for this week there is some value in the top 10 market which we'll discuss here But I actually do like a couple of outright bets and one of them is in kyle arson He's five to one a fandal. Uh, he has length. He has shortened there He was six to one he is shortened to five to one in part because alex bowman had to withdraw doing an injury Open up some win equity Something people were on larcen as a result of that I would shop around see if you can get a six to one or plus five fifty somewhere else But even at five to one I'm still showing value in larcen now the caveat here is if qualifying gets rained out saturday It seems like there's pretty decent odds that does happen larcen would start 19 That would not impact my model very much, but it may Lengthen his win odds. So you could potentially get a better number I think what you do is kind of like a risk tolerance discussion with yourself and decide, okay Do I want to wait on larcen get a better number or should I lock in what's at least by my numbers is good value right now I honestly have larcen's win odds above 20 percent, which is rare. Um It's hard to get there with my model But there are a couple reasons why larcen is that high for me. The first one is his current form is sick He won martinsville didn't have I don't think the best car there, but he won that race He did have the best car in phoenix. Um, maybe kevin harvick was a bit better than him But he could have won phoenix could have won richmond the form for larcen is elite right now And you combine that with a guy who runs well at dover even before He was with hendrick. Uh, he won here at chip can actually racing back in 2019 In the two races here with hendrick, he had a first place average running position in one of them in the second one He had a crash and I think he got a lap down But still rallied for a top 10 finish. So You could hold off and see if you can get a better number. I think there is a decent chance of that But uh, there was qualifying rained out for some other race And we didn't see phand will move odds very much based on that. So I don't know what the odds are of that I don't think he'll get shorter than the five to one so you can probably play some wait and see here But I do think that larcen at five to one is better to want to get whether it's now or later on this weekend Again waiting to see on the rain. I think at some point you should add larcen Five to one still a good number based on my numbers The other outright I like is kevin harvick at 11 to one harvick Would start right outside the top 10 if qualifying does get rained out I have met 10 to win which ranks second behind just kyle larcen the implied odds for harvick are 8.3 percent Harvick similar to larcen has elite current form right now where as mentioned if larcen Shouldn't have been the guy who won at phoenix. It would have been harvick I mean both those guys are better than william byron there He great runs richmond good card martinsville before smith she's late and Harvick has remained pretty good at dover even with his form slipping a bit He had a decent run here last year a rough year overall for harvick, but he was good in there So I am showing value in harvick top 10 at minus 160 I know it's a big number delay for a top 10, but the value is value I do have value at harvick there, but I also do think that 11 to 1 to win this race is a good number So kevin harvick minus 160 top 10 and 11 to 1 to win both those fine bets by my numbers Other than the harvick top 10 the other one. I like is brad keselowski He is plus 140 you finish inside the top 10 and I've got value on that as well The implied odds at plus 140 are 42 percent. I have keselowski at 45 percent Similar to harvick and larson we've seen keselowski have good form on the shorter track so far this year He wasn't great at dover last year and that could be a demerit. It's one race there With rfk racing, but his teammate chris busher Won the poll for that race and ran decently well during the race as well And then busher went out and won bristol So the concrete performance for rfk so far has been good keselowski Had an eighth place average run position in bristol as well So I think this team in general is trending up on these shorter tracks keselowski figuring out this new car If qualified were to be rained out keselowski would start on the second row So i'm not going to count it against larson or harvick because they don't qualify well But track position is never bad especially for guys plus 140 for a top 10 I am showing some value in keselowski to win at plus 3500 by prefer him top 10 at plus 140 So the nascar cup series bets this weekend larson 5 to 1 harvick 11 to 1 to win and also minus 160 top 10 and keselowski top 10 at plus 140 On the Xfinity series side of things I am seeing value on some somewhat longer shots here. I show value on brandon jones, roddy herbs to win I'm skeptical they can top all these guys because josh berry Really good at dover just an olgair always great on concrete. So i'm not sure they can beat him So the outrides herpes is 20 to 1 jones also 20 to 1 I'm not quite there But there are some top 5 bets I like if you can get access to them primarily william hillshops one of them is actually on herpes Uh top 5 other one is on derrick krouse. Let's start here with herpes. I have him 31 to finish inside the top 5 He is plus 275 for a top 5 which is 26.7 percent implied odds It's a decent enough gap Herpes finished 9th in dover last year, but his form this year is really good He had a top 5 run in phoenix. It's not similar to dover, but it is A driver centric track ish We also saw herpes have a fifth place average running position in richmond Which is the same thing not super similar, but it is driver centric Which is a good thing for a place like dover the track record for herpes at dover is good He had three top 10s and five trips one of those was a sixth place run Seems like he is trending up a bit this year Maybe col custer being in that stable has helped herpes a bit But I think the plus 275 top 5 is a good number for herpes So I will be willing to take that and bet him to finish inside the top 5 Despite being less willing to bite on having value for the outright Derrick krouse running just his fourth xfinity series race He had top 10s in both richmond and martinsville But if you go back to trucks the truck series last year with krouse He had a fifth place average running position at bristol That's a good thing. Uh, he had a 10th place mark in nashville. So he has run concrete and he's run it decently well Colleague racing Last year at dover good runs from both aj almond dinger and daniel hemrick at dover Justin hailey in the cup series ran well for them. That's not my model But doesn't hurt to see that colig ran well here both in cup and xfinity Kraus is six to one for a top five implied odds there are 14 percent. I have met 17 percent I think he's a good enough talent. Um, you know Didn't like tear it up Uh with mackinnelly hillkeman last year in the truck series But in a good car with colig right now top five isn't too bad when there are no cup series drivers in this race So i'm okay betting on kraus at six to one for a top 10 and pairing him with herbst at plus 275 That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread Be back with you once again tomorrow. I'm gonna talk some baseball there and we'll talk uh some e pl as well To get a read on that big. Thank you once again to tom vecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom Find his work over at number fire dot com. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also make sure you're subscribed to the podcast by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also Check us out on youtube subscribe there hit the thumbs up button and also give us a five star rating apple I like that you're on the podcast side of things Good luck to all of you with your bets for thursday night Enjoy the draft enjoy the playoffs and we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to close out this week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network