 You want to go with the stocks with the biggest average true ranges, you want to look at the Amazons, you want to look at them in the videos of the world. You want to look. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. Crazy action in the market. We'll get to the individual details in a second. First and foremost, I want to, I'm not a big news guy. I don't watch the news. It's so damn depressing, but you saw it kind of last night. Everybody just started talking about prayers to all the people in Buffalo, New York, man. If you guys haven't seen the news, some crazy shooting, I think it was a supermarket or something. Just craziness in the world. So as much as you think you could have a bad day losing a couple of bucks or whatever the case may be, just always think about the end result could be much worse. So obviously our hearts and prayers go out to the families and the victims of that just ridiculous and heinous crime. So always guys, always remember, it's just just learn to smile. Life is just so much easier when you smile. You don't know how long you have. There is no Mulligans in this life and just always take treasure in every second that you have with their eyes open. So again, big condolences to all the families affected. So let's talk about the market. Again, obviously still so biased, right? The overall picture, don't freak out. I'm about to say something might be pretty good, right? So we've been underneath the 50 day moving average for a while now, right? So it's been about, it's been about a month now and you kind of see the same formula play out. You have four days out of the week, extreme selling. You have one day that the market goes up and then all of a sudden everybody's screaming it's a generational bottom. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but so far it's proven it's not. And I think no matter what your stance is in this market, whether you're a long-term investor, short-term trader, scalper, whatever the case may be, you could all agree everybody has eyes and you kind of can't be in denial of where we are. And again, you could just see, you know, just from the evidence alone. You don't even need to go back through here, right? You don't need to go back to the first time we broke it. You could just go back in the last month. So you see it. I mean, you have the majority of the days, you have red days and you have big spikes, reversals that come out of nowhere. And then, you know, two days later, they reverse, they start taking out lows and they start dying. And that's kind of what we saw for the whole duration of this four months in the 50-day moving average, below the 50-day moving average. But the one thing is, again, we're not trying to figure out when this bear market is going to end, okay? For us, especially for all of us who trade channels and trade pivots, we're trading both sides of the market. It doesn't make a difference. I'm basically preparing for the next day, okay? I don't know what's going to happen the day after. I don't know what's going to happen the week after. I'm not in the predicting business. I'm not in the guessing business. I'm in the data business. And that's what it is. We're trying to get as much data as possible so we can take advantage of the next day. Because again, channels are areas where stocks will trade until they come out, whether it's to the short side or whether it's to the long side. So I don't know where we're going to be a week from now. Hell, I don't know by Monday at the close, but all we can do is look the data from the previous day, look at our research. And the one thing that if you, number one, looked at the scoreboard this week, you could kind of tell a very violent picture, okay? We finally had our reversal on Friday, okay? The Nasdaq was up 4%. That's a huge number the market put up, okay? But when you look at the totality of the week, despite the Nasdaq putting up a 4% gain on Friday, the Nasdaq was still down 3% for the week. That's pretty, that's a monumental number considering how big the rally was on Friday. And that's what bear markets are, okay? We don't know if this bear market will last another couple of days. We won't know it's going to last another couple of months, a couple of weeks, or even a couple of years. Again, there are bear markets that have traded for the last of the two, three years. So we don't know, but what we can do is prepare for the next day. And when you look at Friday's rally, it did something that if you break down the charts, and again, we're all about charts, not about opinion, it's not about where we want it to be. I would love to see a rabid bull market go back to 2021 to 1918, 2017, 2016 to 2015, right? The market was screaming for the last seven years. I love a bull market because again, it's a lot less seamless. You don't have to be perfect on your entry. You don't have to be perfect on your sentiment. You can buy dips. You could do all that stuff that everybody was driven down their throats that you can do in a bull market because they're right. It's linear. There's a range. But when you're trading in the bear market, you have to be a lot more calculated. You have to be a lot more respectful for price action, both long and short. And it's very, very dangerous to have a bias in that direction because again, if you have a bias in one direction, and you want the market to react in your way versus the reality of what's happening, you can get run over and you can be really discarded very, very quickly like last night's garbage. And when you see what happened this week, right? Again, before Friday, we were down 7% of the Nasdaq, you saw a monster collateral damage in all the speculation asset classes. You started seeing, and again, I'm not an expert in crypto or NFTs or anything, or I'm not involved with these damn things. But you see like big NFT projects. And again, this is just things I'm hearing. They got cut, right? They got cut. I don't know if they had half or whatever the case may be, they got cut. You saw crypto names getting hurt. You saw Bitcoin testing what 25, 26,000 midweek, right? You saw that Luna, right? Again, I don't know anything about it, but you saw Luna go to zero, like literally go to zero. And again, that's what's called asset flushing. When anything you have with speculation, it trickles into everything else. And that's a very, very important part. So not only are people exposed to the stock market weakness, they're exposed to the metaverse, they're exposed to crypto, they're exposed to Bitcoin and everything in between. And nothing gets spared when you have a flush in speculation assets. Remember, it's speculation. That's the whole point. At least when you own a piece of real estate, and again, I'm not going into a whole big conversation, real estate versus stock market, but when you own a piece of real estate, it's tangible, whether you're upside down or upright in your loan, or maybe you own it cash outright. The point is, it's a tangible asset, you could hold it. When you have a fluctuation asset, no matter what it is, you're going to have a lot of volatility. And again, the one thing we always talk about, there's a main, there's a huge difference between an average true range and volatility. When we trade beta, the Tesla's, Amazon's, Facebook's, Apple's, Netflix and the videos of the world, they're average true range because they have a big range throughout the day. What a lot of people are calling volatility, that's bad. No trader wants volatility because you can't be in any type of conviction in volatility because things are completely outrageous in nature. Things are moving when they shouldn't be moving, they're expanding when they should be contracting and vice versa, so you don't have any control. And going into this week, the one thing that if you look at your charts, you'll notice something very, very important. Because we had a big 4% rally in the NASDAQ, the thing that happened that stood out when you're looking at your charts is the NASDAQ, we'll talk about the Q's as the NASDAQ, the Q's reclaim the five-day moving average. Now why is that important? If you've watched in this video for many years or many months or many weeks, you know the importance, at least for me, the importance of the five-day moving average, it at least represents short-term control. When I mean short-term, it could be literally as one day, two days, but it does show you who has control of the shortest-term sentiment. And if you look at the, if you go kind of go on a history lesson, even in this bear market, what happened the last several times, there was room above the five-day moving average, we had a couple of days of rally. So let me show you what I'm talking about. So let's start out with right here, just want to go on a quick history lesson. So the orange line represents the five-day moving average. You see every single time it hit the five-day, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected. And then finally here, it reclaimed the five-day moving average. Everybody see that guy's right? And the result was, again, bulls took over a short-term sentiment, doesn't mean that was a generational bottom. And what happened was they had a nice couple of day rally into the next supply. And then they get back down again. Now look again at what happens, right? Again, rejected off the five, five, five, five, five, five, five, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected. Look what happened here, right? That big reversal candle, that was the candle on the day that Russia officially invaded the Ukraine. And look what happened. We had a multi-day rally. And look what happened once we fell below the five-day moving average again. Again, you see it? Rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected. And finally here, we got above the five-day moving average and had a really, really big run. And the five-day moving average, instead of becoming supplied, became demand. And every single time it hit the five-day, it bounced, it bounced, it bounced, it bounced, it bounced, and bounced, and bounced, and bounced, until it lost the five-day moving average. Again, and guess what happened? We started moving lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower, lower. And here we reclaimed the five-day moving average and had another little bit of run and then went lower, lower, lower, lower, lower and guess where we are here, right? We reclaim the five-day moving average. So sometimes when traders are talking about price action and they start putting in these really advanced metrics and advanced studies on their charts, sometimes even if you're the most novice investor, sometimes you can use your eyes, right? This is what we talk about backtesting. You don't need to have really, really aggressive and advanced analytics to backtest. Sometimes what we just did here for basically 30 seconds was backtesting what happened when the market in a bear market reclaimed the five-day moving average, right? It had at least a day or two, maybe even three day run and that's exactly what happened on Friday. We reclaimed the five-day moving average and if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply in demand to demand, right? So here is the supply we reclaimed. The next supply on the queues is 307. Now, we closed on the queues at 302. So we have five points, at least five points for our next measured potential for the next supply. Five points on the queues is enough. Again, we're going day by day. We're not going month by month, week by week. Again, these are predictions. I'm stupid. I'm an idiot. I'm the king of the 80s. I have no idea where the market's going to be at the close tomorrow. I have no idea. I don't want to even want to guess. But with all the data that we're collecting, with all the charts that we're looking at, and based on what we're seeing here and just going by the back test of what we've seen in a very, very short compilation of data, you can see there is a pretty good probability that if, and again, this is a very, very big if. Remember, we're still in the bear market. But if we can reclaim Friday's highs on the queues, then we can get a test of the 10-day moving average. And again, let's not do the whole, well, if we get rid of above that, we'll go here, we'll get above that, we'll go the 50-day, we'll get above the 50-day risk on. Again, baby steps, right? If you're a bull in this market, what you saw on Friday is baby steps. Let's not put the cart in front of the horse and start pounding our chest. This is the generational bottom. We don't know that. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but we don't know that. So we're, again, basing our opinion based on the closing prices and what we see in front of us. And the one thing going into tomorrow, usually, there's something very, we always joke around and say, well, the market's either going to go up tomorrow or it's going to go down. And that's true, right? Every single day, that's the case. But tomorrow is very important. It's incredibly important because, again, what happens? What happens if we give up the five-day moving average very, very quickly and we close below the five-day moving average? Well, guess what? We're going to go right back down. So, yeah, I think tomorrow is a pretty big day. I think when you have a window like this, especially five points in the queues, you don't want, I always talk about this, you don't want to get creative, you always want to be in the stocks that potentially could give you the biggest average trade move because, again, you have such a small window because we're still in a bear market. So as much as you like, for example, a lucid, all right, cool, or you like, for example, something that's going to trade in a 50-cent range like a Snapchat or something like that, Snapchat or anything, right? You want to go with the stocks with the biggest average true ranges. You want to look at the Amazons, you want to look at the Navidias of the world, you want to look at the Tessals of the world, you want to look at the Facebooks of the world and the Netflix of the world and all that because those are the stocks that, again, no disrespect to Lucids or Snapchat or anything else trading in a 50-cent channel for six hours, but these stocks can give you 10, 15, 20, 30 in case of Amazon, can give you 100 points in the day and when you have such a small window, you want to take a shot at that window and make sure you're getting the biggest bang for your buck. So this week's research for me, this weekend's research for me was pretty easy because I'm going with the names, right? If they confirm, I'm going with the names that potentially could have the biggest runs, right? Look at the video, right? In the video closed above the five-day, there's another four or five points minimum, right, to the supply and if it starts reclaiming supply, then there's another 10 points above that. A name like Tesla, right, which is obviously my favorite stock, both long and short, it reclaimed the five-day. Now look what happens if this, if Tesla could confirm the 10, the five-day moving average on Monday and again, that's a very big if, you're talking about 70 points to the upside and that's kind of my point. So instead of trading like a Snapchat and going, oh my God, I hope it goes up 50 cents, you got 60 points, right? You got 60 points in potential, measure potential in Tesla. Amazon, if it confirms, right? You have another 60 points here and if it closes above the 10-day moving average, then you got another 150 points here. So sometimes, yes, you want to look at the best charts and every chart is going to look the same. If you did your homework this weekend, everything is either got rejected off the five-day moving average that needs to confirm or above the five-day moving average that needs to confirm to go to the 10-day moving average. So no matter if you're looking at a TTD, right, that closed on the 10-day moving average to get to the 20 or you're looking at a Tesla that confirmed the, well, got above the five-day that could get to the 10, everything is going to mirror the NASDAQ 100. So when you're doing your research this weekend, try to stick to the ones, and I understand everybody has a different account size, experience level, I get it, if you have a $2,000 account, it's very, very tough to look at Amazon. But if you have a good decent size account and you are and you do trade beta, and I know a lot of you guys out there love trading technology names, you want to go with those names because if, again, if we do only have a one or two-day bounce, you want your stock to go up 40 points, not 40 cents, right guys? And that's it. That's kind of a quick little lesson. Sometimes you have to be a little bit more, sometimes you have to be a little more speculative in your analytics when you do your research. But sometimes it's so basic out there that if we do confirm it, again, we don't know if they will confirm Friday's price action. But if we do confirm, you want to be with the leaders, you want to be in the ones that are going to give you the biggest bang for your buck. And the most important part is you want to be in the ones that have the cold following with the option flow. Because if institutional money starts betting in these stocks right at the open, you know, there's a high probability that they will get where they need to go. If we close below the five-day moving average on Monday, guess what? We're having a completely different narrative on Monday evening. Guys, have a great night. Have a blessed, blessed Sunday. And with God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow.