 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome into covering the spread. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and numberfire.com Where today we are getting you said for the Travelers Championship with Colin Davey He is a data scientist on Twitter at a DJ baseline talking about his favorite bets for the Travelers Championship and his general process For betting on golf. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work at thepowerank.com. Ed, they announced last night baseball is coming back It will be opening day on July 23rd We are less than a month away from the opening unless things get weird until then which they could how you doing? I'm doing pretty good. I'm a little bummed that this weekend is the last weekend of the Bundesliga and My numbers kind of look terrible compared to the markets because there's a lot of Motivation and in fact, you know a lot of teams have stuff to play for and some don't But yeah, I'm excited to get some more American sports baseball is going to be added You know, they're going to be playing in their home stadiums that are going to be empty so a little bit more of a data set for home advantage without fans and that's exciting and also a Closer proxy for NFL because there will be some travel involved or at least more travel potentially than like the Bundesliga because They're gonna be playing divisional teams So it will be closer But they will be like going from minutes like Minneapolis to Milwaukee is still five hours or whatever like that That's like enough where it's an impactful travel number So it's going to be very interesting and I want to see that data But I'm also just excited to see some baseball because it's been Upsetting like I I'm not awake in time to catch the KBO I like following the KBO because I it's fun to like look at some old MLB players who didn't necessarily succeed in major league baseball haven't success over there and The team names are fun and stuff like that, but it'll be nice to have major league baseball back to you Yeah, I mean, I'm not such a data nerd that I'm only interested in the home home field without fans But yeah, I think it's gonna be nice to have some baseball back, you know a little disappointed It's only a 60 game season but obviously MLB had their issues in getting this going But it's nice to see that they figured it out and we're they're gonna get At least the 60 game season going. Yeah, and I think it's gonna be awesome It's like it'll be very interesting to see how things play out because there is gonna be a lot of randomness which Sure, I kind of want the chaos So I'm all on board with that. It should be a lot of fun. So we'll be talking baseball I'm sure before we get to the new opening day later in July, but first we got to talk some golf We're gonna have Colin Davion. You can find him on Twitter at ADJ baseline We're gonna discuss the Travelers Championship his takeaways in the opening couple weeks of golf coming off of the COVID-19 Layoff and his favorite bets for this weekend. Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an Apple podcast spotify stitcher the Google Play Store I heart radio I could go on and on if you name that you can probably find us there Make sure you hit us up there, and if you like what Colin has to say, please leave us a rating and review as well Before we bring Colin on though, we got to go back to last week We had Ted Knudsen on to talk about the return of the EPL and and you talked about it too And you and Ted did pretty well at your number. So let's talk about that and I'll talk about Talladega before we get to Colin Covering the past All right, so last week we had Ted Knudsen on you can find him on Twitter at mixed nuts KNUTS and talked a little bit of EPL and Ted liked Southampton against Norwich. They were plus 120 Southampton rolled in that one They won 3-0 and I know that your numbers like them as well So riding high and Southampton there Ted also mentioned Brighton at plus 240 against Arsenal plus 240 for a money line Pretty good. They won that game two to one the final one that Ted had mentioned was Shefty the United at plus 130 against Newcastle. Newcastle won that one But going two to one on picks that were all plus money pretty solid showing by Ted there And I know he was asking for your numbers as well on those numbers to add good confirmation that you were on the same page You had a tough one for Leicester City against Watford You've had some bad luck in the final minutes of matches the past two weeks Leicester City took a 1-0 lead at in the 90th minute and that put you at plus 115 in a good spot But then Watford scored three minutes into stoppage time to tie things back up ended in a draw So all around a good showing for the soccer numbers last week, but couldn't even better if not for again Last minute goals kind of bite me in the butt there Yeah, well and and the thing part of it was like, you know My numbers didn't think Leicester was as good as being like third in the table as well So it was a little bit surprising that you know that yeah that they found value against Watford So yeah overall, I'm not too worried about it and we may get back to Southampton later in the show How are you feeling about your numbers after one week back in the EPL? Because it seemed like things went pretty well based on the way that you and Ted seemed to jive on a lot of those numbers Yeah I mean another game I'll point out, you know My numbers are not as high on Liverpool as the markets were They ended up tying 0-0 with Everton Everton was the better team They had more chances in the second half to win that match They were up 1.4 to 0.9 and expected goals. So Yeah, I like that as well, you know, Liverpool is gonna win the league there there. I think as we record I think they're about to play right now They're gonna wrap up the league and then motivation is gonna be an interesting issue there It's not necessarily how good they are. So keep an eye on that as well Absolutely, but a good opening weekend for the EPL for sure. For NASCAR last week I discussed three long-ish shots that I like to win in Talladega Those guys were Eric Almerola, Clint Boyer and Matt DiBenedetto Almerola and Boyer were 26-1, DiBenedetto was 40-1, Boyer and DiBenedetto wrecked together So that's always good. Boyer was running 6th with two laps left But then he wrecked, took DiBenedetto with him. They finished 25th and 36th. Sweet Almerola also spun in the last lap. So all three of them, we went three for three on spinning in the last lap But Almerola still almost won the race potentially as a result of spinning, but so Ryan Blaney was leading in case you didn't watch he blocked Eric Jones and John Hunter Nemechek were coming on the outside and that slowed Blaney's down, the contact did and That allowed Almerola to get this run. He was coming on the inside of Blaney They were like right in front of the start finish line. Almerola had this gap And he had the momentum and then Ricky freaking Stenhouse Jr. spun Almerola right before the line Almerola, the back end of his car was half a car length behind Ryan Blaney when Ryan Blaney won the race So Almerola finished third behind Blaney and Stenhouse and like this super close finish He almost won it while going backwards, which would have been awesome 26 to 1 finishing half a car length back. I'm not going to complain about that I can complain because I think he would have won if Stenhouse hadn't done a very Ricky Stenhouse thing and wrecked Almerola, but I'm gonna take it I think it was still a good process, but that was a wild Wild race and a lot of fun. I'd mentioned Nemechek too in the betting guy at a number fire He was 65 to 1 wasn't competitive the entire race and then almost came on the outside and won it But uh, it was fun to have a couple of drivers there in the sweat at the end Even if Almerola couldn't quite get the job done, but a win in reverse would have been Pretty sweet. I would have taken that for sure. Oh, well, maybe next time in Talladega. We'll see For sure All right, so we're gonna bring on Colin Davey now once again, you can find him on Twitter at adj baseline He has done work for SP Nation. He built the live win probability model for the action network We used to work for fantasy labs and good golf data guy And that's why we wanted to have Colin on for this week to preview the traveler's championship We know that things are about to start because we're recording this on Wednesday So we are going to talk some in tournament betting as well an overall process for Colin to get his thoughts Let's bring on Colin now and pick his brain a bit about betting on golf Covering the present Let's bring in Colin Davey now to talk betting on golf Colin. I hear that you have a Super human immune system. So I'm excited to have you on the show today. How you doing? I'm great. Despite Ed's best efforts. I am here and talking with you all Sloan was an interesting visit to Boston this year in retrospect, but of everyone in that group I think I came out kind of the the best So count my blessings. I guess I don't know if it's luck or skill So you you managed to breathe the air of many many people who ended up with COVID and that we know tested positive for COVID And somehow you were you have been just fine. So yeah I feel like I need to be like promoting an elixir or a snake oil or something and as well as this golf knowledge So but I I don't know. I don't have a good explanation for it Okay, so no magical elixir yet We will check back on you though because I think they're clearly the cases are back on the rise There's still a market for this magical elixir. So you've still got a window to profit and I think that We we can revisit that for sure. Yeah, stay tuned to this space. Yes, absolutely So let's dive into some golf here Colin. We've got two events under our belts since the end of the COVID-19 layoff So we got some fresh data and it's the first time we've had fresh data in three months So that's good. The problem is it's eight rounds and that's a pretty small sample So how much value are you putting in what we've seen out of these golfers in these two events? And is it misleading like what are you thinking about these past two events so far? So it's the it's kind of the classic question in golf in general How much do you wait recent versus long term? And it's kind of compounded by like we don't really have a good long term Well, we have an adjusted picture of long term. So when I hear that question How much do you you know wait the past two or three events in general? It's always a question of you know, how do you wait it compared to what right? And from my time kind of building up the golf models at fantasy labs and my own research as well You always have you start with kind of a base assumption of Have some way to calculate someone's, you know, long term Expectation or just kind of like their overall solid form And recent form is always basically an adjustment from that So we have two rounds And yeah, it's not a lot And on top of which it's such a drastic change in timeline and there could have been all sorts of things that have happened It could be new playing conditions and so I Default to kind of a longer term view of all these golfers and so You kind of give it the same weight as you did as though the tour had, you know Been continuing this whole time. So it's some adjustment But the bulk of your evaluation should still be How good all of these golfers were before we all went on hiatus Excellent Collin. Um, tell us a little bit about your approach to that The data that you use because I think it's a little bit different from what other people use sometimes to evaluate golfers Yes, it is And Ed, I don't know if that's an indirect plug for your own models But for those not in the know Ed and I actually have the exact same base algorithm that we use to Rank a lot of our players and teams only differences I did it for golf and Ed does it for basically everything during that golf and We may be biased, but I think it's actually a really really good algorithm To handle definitely jumps in time and if your data is cut off It's really good at kind of picking up right where we left back off so the um, the data itself Is nothing too fancy. It's just basically a record of everyone's all golfers Kind of strokes per round the differences it adjusts for a lot under the hood and it kind of figures out Almost like a more advanced version of strokes gained if this golfer beat this golfer this Tournament by seven strokes, but lost to him by three strokes and other golfers did that and it kind of collides them all together To produce kind of a study state rank order of who is overall best It's kind of similar to strokes gained except it takes into account strength of schedule or quality of field Uh in a lot more sophisticated way that I think produces a lot more kind of stable rankings of players I like it a little bit better than Strokes gained for a lot of reasons one strokes gain has a lot of gaps in the data Especially in tours like web or events like web.com and european tour where they don't have shot link data And you have holes in the data And the adjustments that you're able to make from you know, strength of schedule and quality competition Are a lot more predictive than any Kind of granular adjustments you might get from things like strokes gain tea to green strokes gain punting stroke stroke Ends off the tea They don't really have a good strength of field adjustment to them So keeping on that same subject Do you think that that better positions you to have a good read on Golfers who may have like excelled during the swing season like looking at these younger golfers like Collin Mora Kawa, Victor Hovland These golfers who did really well. Maybe when the fields weren't as strong Do you feel more confident in your evaluation of those golfers given that that's the way You are judging them is is relative to field strength Absolutely I think you get a lot of cases where people will rattle off top five top tens top 20s as a predictive stat and it's a good shorthand, but It's kind of an incomplete stat Um, why not include european tours? Well as well as that I mean that's one of the biggest challenges is what these european golfers when they move to and from the different tours How do you evaluate, you know 47th at the sony in hawai versus a fifth at something like the the south africa to shawani open Like it's not the same caliber of field. You need a way to kind of have a rosetta stone translate between the two Um, and I think that approach kind of Once you can adjust for those quality of fields you get a much better overall picture for those golfers Interesting. I think that's definitely necessary Especially for majors when we have a lot of that movement guys went over from the european tour and stuff like that So definitely I think a smart way to approach that. Let's go back here to talking about the end of the covid 19 layoff We mentioned that we're mostly buying in too longer term form Had there been any specific golfers who have stood out to you as being wildly different from where they were before the covid 19 Layoff whether it be for a good or batteries in this mate. There may be no one But is there anyone who stood out to you? Well, I don't think this discussion is complete without Mentioning brazen to shambo in the roughly 95 pounds Put on during the layoff um, I'm actually the first to admit that Uh, when looking at numbers alone Data will not capture drastic changes that people have undergone like in those layoffs Um, I think my default assumption is whatever the golfers were before the layoff They were after the layoff and you're going to find exceptions to that that are backed up by qualitative and quantitative data Because golf is such a small sample size sport to begin with I think you start from a stronger position Assuming that any drastic changes are probably small sample and not statistically significant If you want to make any kind of you know actionable decisions off of changes that you do see Is probably best backed up by qualitative backing either you know that they've made changes You know that there's something physically different with them I'm the first to admit though that that is outside of the realm of data alone Yeah, well 95 pounds does seem like adjustment. I it's not 95. It's something he's he's a mac truck now Whatever you're he's my trout. He's my trout with a golf club. Yes, exactly. Well, I could be good I guess I think Um, call. Let's talk a little bit about golfers and their matches with courses How do you fit a golfer with the course and does that change your model and where they're expected to play? So there are a lot of different approaches to finding course fit As as a concept, I do believe that different golfers and different types of golfers do better or worse in certain types of courses and so my approach at a high level is um kind of come up with a model for based off of golfers generic stats How well you'd expect them to do overall if someone's shooting, you know An average of 69 strokes per round and you don't know what their strengths are All else being equal you expect them to do better than someone who's true 71 without knowing what their strengths and weaknesses are So once you have kind of some base expectation of how golfers will do in general based off of their high level stats What you can do is Figure out on a course by course basis. What type of golfers? Uh, given their descriptive stats things like driving distance accuracy scrambling ability putting ability What golfers have overachieved or underachieved those base expectations on a course by course basis? Uh, you can do that with the any kind of method you want I like something as a simple regression model to show which stats Show over and under performance on each course course by course basis and you can kind of get at least a directional idea Of what types of golfers will do better or worse than each particular course So when you go through that process for tpc river highlands, which is where the travelers championship is this weekend Does it lead you to a certain archetype that you expect to do better than usual at a course like that? Yeah, river highlands actually has a pretty clear archetype in my mind One of the weaker fits is uh, I think it promotes accuracy over distance It's not a bomber's course. You have things like driving accuracy in greens and regulation Having a slight boost to certain types of golfers, but I think the more interesting fit Is bad putters do better at river highlands interesting Okay, and that's a weird one to wrap your mind around but if you walk through it a little bit It does kind of make sense. I do believe in the abstract that um, let's take a A golf course where putting is literally has randomness everywhere Let's say there are land mines and they blow up every seventh ball or something like that Um, if your bread and butter is making is doing, you know making long putts and putting well If there's just randomness spewed across all of those putting surfaces your advantage is neutralized And so the way that's reflected in data is if your good putter and your advantage is neutralized Then bad putters do better than they would otherwise So conceptually it's not that hard to imagine is for as far as something more practical Maybe the greens are so fast that they're all putting on glaciers And so the ability to read greens and kind of make those my note adjustments Is neutralized by the fact that it's just such a fast course. It's tough to capitalize on that edge So, uh bad putters far and away have I think the biggest advantage to their opponents At discourse than they would any other course as someone who has talked myself into losing a lot of money in daily fantasy on guys Like Joel Damon and other bad putters that is just music to my ears. It makes me very happy to hear that This is a green light weekend for you, Jim We're feeling good. That is for sure. So Colin, we're talking to here Wednesday afternoons There's not a ton of time before the tournament, but I do want to talk about the full tournament here first Before we look at live golf or live betting with golfing Any golfers stand out to you as being undervalued based on the current odds over at fangirls sportsbook Yeah, and a lot of it is based on what these golfers were doing before that, you know, all this layoff hit All these layoffs hit and a lot of them are not necessarily household names yet If you want some Spicier takes, uh, I believe that Colin Moore, Cabo and Xander Schoffley are top five golfers in the world right now There I tend to like younger players who they just uh, if people show really good form at a younger age Before they're basically 26. You can count on them Having a lot of like growth and upside baked into their process because players do generally improve like from 22 to 26 And you kind of can and you can anticipate that they will get better with a little bit more seasoning Um, I think the results they've shown to date Um put them right up there with worry right there with Justin Thomas like right that right up there with Bryson And it's easy to forget that they're putting up really good results before all the stuff hit um On for a couple more names that kind of fit the profile similarly Victor Hovland who did win the Puerto Rico, which is you know based admittedly kind of a jv tournament that used to be web.com Um, but he did it in enough convincing fashion and beat some pretty good names that he's showing enough upside Uh, as well as one name that has not got a lot of buzz yet scottie shuffler I think he's just as much of uh, some of these young guns that kind of show the same upside And he's young enough that I think you can bake in some improvement where he is due For a good showing any one of these days And I think that the that it's interesting to hear you name those specifically the three younger guys outside of zander because What do they all struggle with it's the short game for a lot of those guys I think it's it's interesting that you are gravitating that direction Sheffler 75 to 1 while you are talking more a cow moved from 40 to 39 So someone may be in on this stream and is listening to you give out these picks So just be aware of that as we're going through here But I think it is interesting to hear the guys who struggle with the short game being the ones you're focusing on here Because it lines up to what you were saying before Yeah, absolutely. And like I said, this is a green light for bad putters. And if that's one of the weaknesses, I think it'll be Uh, severely diminished this weekend Excellent, um What are your thoughts about internment betting? Is that something that you do? Uh, what are the differences between internment betting and pre tournament betting? I mean like any in-game betting It's a live adjustment of your priors going into the tournament versus what has happened in the tournament And if there's ever a place to introduce even more randomness and adjustment uh in golf It is in tournament versus uh pre tournament. So I don't think that I necessarily have the expertise to touch that Uh, um, especially considering staggered t times weather effects. There's just a lot to process on the fly And I think there is you know, value to be found in internment betting Um, I don't think that the live data necessarily supports it from a pure data angle But there are definitely people who know how to you know, make qualitative decisions on the fly Adjusting from that kind of priors. Um and kind of capitalize accordingly. I just don't think that you know data Our pure data is uh, you know a good enough approach to do that profitably So what are the resources you lean on then uh when you're trying to make those assumptions? Are there certain places you will go to try to get uh any qualitative data? You can get at least or are you trying to watch the tournament yourself to get that that that qualitative aspect of it? Or how are you uh going about it? What resources do you lean on most? Um for that qualitative stuff It's mostly people who are closer to the game whether people who either watch a lot of it People who know some of those players on tour or have some kind of experience It's uh, I think a good way to test hypotheses of your own Um, you know always approach not don't necessarily go in with the narratives that you're looking to prove already You should have some inkling of you know, I think this is an angle. I think this is something to look at Uh, and you know, that should be either confirmed or denied or should at least align with someone who has seen something similar Um from a completely different angle So you're leaning more on people rather than numbers when it comes to live betting. Is that a correct? Uh takeaway from that or yeah, I I mean, I think your number has always found your first foundation Sure, and then like any adjustments from that, you know should be Validated by you know people basically Okay, perfect. That is Colin Davey. Uh, Colin I want to thank you for swinging by chatting some golf with us and Hopefully at some point spreading your magical elixir for avoiding, uh, terrible diseases Appreciate it. Uh, good luck with this weekend. Hopefully you can talk to you again soon. Sounds good. Thanks for having me on All right. Thank you very much Covering the future One final thank you to Colin Davey for swinging by and breaking down the travelers championship and ed Uh, it was cool to hear him talk about how he uses a similar approach to his models as you do for yours That's always fun when when things align like that I know I probably should should have killed the kid a couple years ago So he stopped applying all my stationary distribution of markov chain methods to uh to other sports, but uh No, it's definitely a good thing. He forgot to mention. He implied at first the tennis I think before he ever got into the golf. So he's got some tennis numbers Um, I think he's still running those Yeah, and I think the baseline in his twitter account or first the tennis too. So They don't have to get him on for some tennis. We can have like a whale capper Uh, you know whale capper collin davy crossover type episodes or something like that If tennis ever comes back if novak jokovic stops doing weird things like we can eventually get back to that. So, uh I mean that it is really funny that the two sports most amenable to social distancing like golf tennis are like So slow and coming back. Yeah. I mean like Golfs had this weird uptick. There was a time on wednesday where it Kind of looked like they were going to cancel the travelers Um, apparently that's not happening, which is a good thing But regardless it was uh, it was a weird time. So I don't know it's it's grim uh for The prospects of stuff in the fall. It's a little bit scary as things come back with all the this increase in cases. So You know, yeah, we'll see Yeah All right, uh, before we dive into covering the future Fandall sportsbook is giving you a chance to get in on the action risk-free Create a fandall sportsbook account today and place your first bet If you lose you will receive a refund of up to $500 in site credit It is that easy for more details visit sportsbook dot fandall dot com Offer valid for new users only must be 21 years old gambling problem. Call 1 800 gambler Let's take a look at covering the future ed. You want to talk some more e pl for this week What are your numbers saying about uh, this week's set of matches? Yeah, I think the idea here is that you're looking for teams that are much better than expected goals And they are in the table. So what I do is I take the data fb rough, uh, which is my new favorite website in the entire world And I take the expected goals in each game I adjust for strength schedule and then I'm able to rank teams and then The rankings on offense and defense also give me a set of win probabilities Which can go check out at the power rank dot com slash predictions And ted newtson talked last week about south ampton. Uh, the numbers definitely supported that Digging a little bit deeper. They are 14th in the table. So not particularly good But they're actually as high as seventh when you look at expected goals adjusted for schedule And, you know, normally, uh, I would never just say, hey, you know, it looks like there's value on south ampton Just because my numbers Say that, um, but I'm definitely going to lean on what ted said last week You know, someone who watches a lot of games and knows the sport a lot better than I do Like we mentioned they did deliver last week Midweek, uh, they do have a match against arsenal. Uh, my my predictions are up It says south ampton has a 42.5 chance to win which suggests some value at plus 155 And then, um, so so just the team to follow as well They have a match against watford this weekend. I have not posted the predictions yet on my site But it certainly does look like, uh They will suggest some value on south ampton. So, um All the premier league predictions will be up at the power rank dot com slash predictions Does it feel good to have like fresh data going up on the site once again? Yes, it's it's almost really weird to to not be updating things and, um, you know, right now like You know with all my football stuff like I've been doing it for so long that I just I I type update into my computer and it just gets everything going and I've had a chance to automate everything So much with the soccer stuff, but it's still nice to look at things and um, and uh, yeah Just taking a new information for a sport. I really do like and that feels pretty good. All right I like that says that south ampton once again hide ads numbers, uh for this weekend in nascar There are actually two nascar cup series races at pokeno And the odds are up at fandals sportsbook for the first one And I have two bets that I like a lot based on those numbers. The first one is ryan blaney He is now 13 to 1 to win at fandals sportsbook and he did just win on monday in taladega and taladega and pokeno Super different tracks. So it doesn't matter that ryan blaney won there But he's been running well everywhere else recently too. So I want to buy into him at 13 to 1 blaney Six top five finishes in the past seven races in the lone race where he didn't get a top five He led six elapsed and then wrecked while running second So good in all each of the past seven races with at least some shot to win The top fives have come at one and a half mile tracks a short track a super speedway So the track type does not matter. He is just running crazy well right now and He is a past winner in pokeno. He won here in 2017 back when he was still with wood brothers racing His best finish since then is sixth But he is in the middle of a career year is age 26 season Which is a very productive season for you know, kind of like what colin was talking about where you want to find guys Who are productive and ahead of their aging curves ryan blaney is that and the form is really good here Right now ryan blaney is second in my model behind kevin harvick harvick is plus 550 while blaney is 13 to 1 So I think blaney is a tremendous bet. I also have a future bet on him, which we had talked about on covering the future He was 28 to 1 to win the championship. He's now down to 10 to 1 So feeling good about the the championship bet on blaney as well for a longer shot of pokeno I love tyler retic at 65 to 1 retic is a rookie So this will be his first cup series race in pokeno but he did finish second tier in the xfinity series last year and The car he is currently in ran well on this track last year That was daniel hemric who was running the eight car last year and hemric finished seventh in the second race here last year He was 13th in the first race two of his better finishes for the entire year And retic has taken that car to a new level this year So we could expect him to potentially push for a top five type run this week He had a fourth place average running position in homestead two weeks ago That is like the prototypical tyler retic track and pokeno is not that But it shows that he and his equipment do have upside I think that that's least intriguing when his odds are 65 to 1 so retic a longer shot at 65 to 1 I do like that quite a bit But i think that blaney is my preferred bet between the two 13 to 1 he actually opened at 11 So maybe you can potentially like hold off on blaney even and maybe get him out of a better number But I think even at a if you go back to 11 to 1 he'd still be an advantageous bet in my mind Adam kind of sad that the the run of nascar is Coming to an end because we're going to have other sports to bet and like I've had a lot of fun having a legitimate excuse to just keep talking nascar on here So they actually kind of said that we'll have other stuff that I can shoehorn into covering the future Well, it doesn't mean you got to stop. So this is true. We'll get into baseball a little bit, which will be excellent But You know, I mean, I don't know. I might be talking about soccer for a while. We'll see Hey, I mean we have champions league coming back in uh in early august They're gonna finish that up And then I don't know when they're planning on starting the fall leagues, but Yeah, I think wasn't the mls planning on being in Orlando too Like along with the fba. I don't remember. Yeah, I can't remember either, but that might be Do this as well, but uh regardless It's been fun to have uh some nascar talk here on covering the spread and maybe we'll get to keep doing that Going forward that is all that we have for today though And anything you want to plug over at the football analytics show or over at the power rank Yeah, the power rank, please sign up for my free email newsletter. Uh when we do start getting closer to the nfl seasons I'll start posting some of my best predictions Up there. So definitely don't miss out on that and then uh, I also wanted I did an episode about what the probability of football and uh, so someone tweeted me about it last week and was like You know your guest mentioned that the numbers in the us are going down. What was he talking about? I was like, huh, that's interesting. So I went to the johns hopkins site and and looked at their data And uh, sadly we had we had recorded that on june 10th, which was the bottom of uh, Basically the minimum of the daily new cases in the united states. Yeah, it has sadly gone up since then And um, yeah, it's a worrisome trend. Uh, there's a there's a lot of things to worry about for the american sports fan The the situation in florida is really bad and that's exactly where the mba wanted to finish their season You know dr. Anthony fasci said that the nfl should do what the mba is doing and play You know quarantine the entire league in one location He doesn't have the power to actually make that happen and I don't think the nfl is going to listen to him at all I think they're gonna they're gonna try their best to pray and I think they're gonna be able to do it But anyways, there's just a lot of cautionary tales out there, you know continuing number of cases in the college football ranks um, so Not the best time, you know, I feel like we've gone through like ups and ups and downs with this. Oh, yeah 100% Yeah, uh, like every day when I look at the new numbers It's been it was concerning when the numbers had plateaued and were no longer going down And then it was like uh-oh a little slide to hiccup and then it's like uh-oh and then it's like uh-oh like just increasing magnitudes of frightening as the case numbers have gone back up because It kind of seems like there's no You know putting the toothpaste back in the tube because people probably aren't going to like lock down again Like I did the first time and the cases are almost as bad as they were back then Yeah, I mean, I think the states have talked about that's the last resort to lock down again Yeah, um, but obviously no one wants to do that Which is why you know in michigan's has been great, you know I think the governor has done a really good job following the science and And waiting for a lot of metrics before opening up the state and that was definitely frustrating for a while Because you know, we couldn't get back out But now finally we're getting to the point where we can but You know, we get about yeah 100 200 cases a day new cases a day in michigan That's been I think one of the best states in america But to kind of put it in perspective that's about the same number that new cases that germany gets every day And they have about eight times the population of michigan so They're really doing things right over there uh in europe and uh, I just You know, I I hope the us kind of Goes in that direction and and so we can get our sports back this fall I know a lot of you listening are very smart So I trust that you are wearing masks, but if you're not please do they help a lot Uh, I trust I trust all of you our loyal listeners to wear masks So hopefully you are uh because that does help out a lot And that's why like in new york and the same thing We've had many of the open up some things back up because cases have been down because people are wearing masks So for those of you who have done so thank you and please keep on doing it That is all that we have for this week Make sure you check out ed's work the power rank.com checking out on twitter at the power rank as well I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you once again to our guest collin davie Make sure you follow him on twitter at adj baseline to check out all of his work there Thank you to cow and theobald our video producer from the video side of things here today Thank you cow as always and of course Thank you to those of you who tuned in for it today to check out covering the spread We appreciate all you. Hope you you are staying safe and good luck with your bets whether it be pga, ufc, nascar, epl, bundesliga, whatever it may be Sports slowly trickling back. Hopefully they can be profitable for you This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network