 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network You're not gonna find many sports weekends better than this one the world series begins tonight between the Diamondbacks and the Rangers We have got all 32 NFL teams in action. We have got the semi-finals from NASCAR I know you don't care, but I do NBA and NHL also in full swing We're gonna break down three aspects of that delightful sports weekend for today talking player props with JJ Zacharyson Talking World series with Rob Friedman the pitching ninja and I'll talk about NASCAR later on to close out the show We should be a spectacular weekend This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research join your kick things off by JJ Zacharyson Check him out on Twitter at late round QB find his work at late round comm and the late round fantasy football podcast and JJ I pray That you've got exposure in some way to your guy Chris Godwin last night because he has been bound for a touchdown for a very long time You've had a lot of bad luck with him, but our guy finally came through last night Please tell me there was some way you benefited from his touchdown Yeah, I benefited a little bit from the touchdown, but of course it happened on a Thursday night game When I would have totally been throwing Godwin out there. He was plus 240 last night. It was awesome Yeah, yeah, I mean like but I do think that he's a really good example of sort of what we talked about on the show a lot where You know, we're looking at regression and we're looking at the markets and the markets are not baking in regression always I mean, there are sometimes like Tony Pollard this week has the the the shortest odds to score a touchdown essentially on most books, but He's someone who's actually a huge touchdown regression candidate favorably like he should have way more touchdowns And he actually has but books are recognizing that he should score a touchdown this weekend But a guy like Godwin, you know, like you said plus 240 You know, hopefully you were able to get something out of that. Yeah, it was awesome I celebrated, you know, and I probably would not have been there had we not had our discussion So I still benefited from it even if others did not so selfishly. Thank you but hopefully others were taking Taking the grains of like regression discussion we had had and applying that to their own betting And hopefully that you benefit from the chris godwin Touchdown is what we're going to talk about the week eight player prop landscape here In just one second a first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast later on this weekend tomorrow morning Tom becky will have you ready for a sunday night football charters and bears via prime time tom that is both here on the covering the spread podcast feed and fan dual tv plus to get fan dual tv plus go to fan dual dot com slash watch and log in with your fan dual account or Download the fan dual tv plus app on amazon fire apple tv or roku devices Now jg let's start things off here by talking about i think the headliner of this weekend that is the san francisco 49ers because They are a very fun team for prop betting because they've got a lot of fun guys Especially when you take out one player from that equation But now likely to have san donald starting this week as opposed to brock purdy So we talked about backup quarterbacks in an earlier show and kind of how that that meshes, but It's different. I think in a kyle shanahan scheme even if trend williams can't go like i think that's a very different situation So how do you expect things with a backup quarterback to play out when the system and the environment around him is so good Yeah, it's funny. Uh, i'm one of my podcasts called living the stream Um, you know not the lay around podcast, but on living the stream We we got a question of you know, we always answer like silly questions at the end of every show And one of the questions was who is the worst quarterback? That would be okay and kyle shanahan system Because kyle shanahan system is that good that you can throw a pretty and i think our i think our consensus answer was zack wilson like i think that was like the The sort of go to but it just goes to show you that i mean we've seen Very very random bottom tiered Quarterbacks obviously they're in the nfl. So they're good, but bottom tiered quarterbacks Do okay, and and really at least uh be able to sustain some production in this offense historically with kyle shanahan We had nick mullins in the past. Um, I mean there's been players who have stepped in Who did you bet that was below the wilson line? We found that out at least Yeah, yeah, we did we did realize that but they're you know, if you look at darnold himself I know that he's a he's a punchline at this point, but um, you know at the same time He's got the pedigree like he's had at least some production Some good moments in the nfl And now you're you're looking at him in this 49ers offense And one of the reasons why the 49ers offense can be as good as it is aside from just scheming guys open and such And kyle shanahan being so good at that Um, it's it's it's predicated on on yards after catch It's predicated on getting the ball Through their playmakers more so than most any other offense you're gonna find and so When you look at what they have even with debo samuel banged up and unlikely to go I don't think he's confirmed out right now, but you know unlikely to go You have cmc in the backfield best receiving back in the league You have george kittle one of the best yak tight ends that you can find and brandon iyuk You know, I don't think people first off. I don't think people realize how good brandon iyuk is But coming out of college like his big thing was that he was amazing after the catch And he still has been very amazing after the catch in the nfl That's why he was such an obvious fit for kyle shanahan in san francisco So I actually look at this 40. Of course, there's gonna be You know, I'm not as optimistic as as I would be if they had brock purdy under center But you can look at the line and you can see how things sort of alter and change from that And and then have that sort of trickle down in domino effect down to the rest of the team from a projection standpoint And when you look at it, it's not as big of a deal as what you're going to see with other quarterbacks I don't want to say that brock purdy is a system quarterback But I think every quarterback is a system quarterback to some degree and we have to recognize that And it's also like sam darnold's a pretty competent backup Like do you want him as your starter? Probably not but like the downgrade from Generic started to sam darnold. It's not as large. I think the big thing for me is a total coming down It kind of hints to me that the team may be a bit more conservative Maybe a bit more run having we saw mccaffrey play every snap on monday for some reason like good for him but like They clearly did not care about the oblique injury and I feel like To me whenever I see a backup quarterback in there like yes The running back may get more regent's but they're also more likely to be in a negative game script In this situation, I kind of feel like that's less true because I could see kyle shanahan Just kind of skewing towards the run Because darnold's good enough to keep them in a positive script. There's still four and a half point favorites right now And like I could see mccaffrey actually benefiting here Whereas usually I don't want to bump up the the running back when it's back a quarterback started Yeah, I think it's all logical very logical Alrighty, let's talk here about other fluid situations impacting week number eight looking across the full landscape jj Which fluid situations are you digging into as spots where you may see value once props are posted there? Yeah, you know usually and when we talk about these fluid situations We're talking backfields and I have three backfields that I think are pretty intriguing right now One of them is houston and one of the most under the radar Storylines and fantasy football in that space at least which obviously translates to prop betting Is the houston backfield and how they divvied up that backfield before their buy last week Damian pierce through the first five weeks of the season was seeing about a 72 running back rush air per game rate I mean even in the week five gave me at a hundred percent of the team's running back rushes And then the last time we saw them back in week six pierce ended up seeing half of the team's running back rushes Because they ended up using devon singletary more in that backfield Singletary saw season highs in running back rush air target share snaps row participation And they've openly talked about now the coaching staff has that this is a committee I think that they're realizing that damian pierce being a good a good player. He is a good player He just doesn't fit the scheme as well. I think devon singletary just fits a little bit better So that's something to keep in mind. I might may or may not have something more on that later on the show Uh, the carolina backfields another one in that same exact game where mile sanders has been banged up But if you look at any rushing metric, uh, advanced metric even regular metric Chuba Hubbard has been better than mile sanders this year. I mean across the board and so Uh, mile sanders has been banged up like I said, but frank rake comes out this week And he says this is a committee and chuba hubbard's been really good Is basically that that's the you know, the the short answer to what he he ended up saying Um, and so I I do think that we're gonna see Even more of a committee. I think that chuba hubbard moving forward There's a very decent chance that he's the one a in that backfield. It's not mile sanders Who you know to start the year was that guy and that's a change in tune from what we saw You know earlier in the off season in august and such and as people were drafting their fantasy teams People thinking that mile sanders is going to be a bell cow now He was never really a true true bell cow But he was seeing a decent amount of work to start the year and that's sort of trickled a little bit And gone into chuba hubbard's favor a little bit more and more and then the last one, uh, is the cardinals backfield Obviously, there's a lot of question marks could have talked about fluid situation with the quarterback there with kyler murray practicing this week Uh, but the cardinals backfield man. I mean two weeks ago We saw this team without james connor for the first time This season and without connor they had a completely split I mean they they gave damian williams some snaps out of nowhere You know kianta angriom was seeing a lot of work on the ground and then a marie d markado Who a lot of people thought was going to be sort of the bell cow in that backfield Um, you know, he ended up seeing you know the most snaps, but it really wasn't that big of a workload But last week he had 93 of the team's running back rushes and a 15 target share and then this week you look at You know, they've used d markado as a pass catching back throughout the season Slash over the last two weeks like he's been that guy for them So I think what's really favorable for him this week is that they get baltimore That could be a pretty serious negative game script of things go the way that you know most models would project And so if that's the case then we know that d markado is going to be on the field But then on top of that What if they just use d markado the exact same way as they did last week, right? And then all of a sudden he's really gobbling up a lot of a lot of yards and a lot of receptions and such So, you know, I think there's a lot to like about d markado But it is fluid because teams can just go back and forth very quickly with with how they use their running backs Yeah, and that that usage for d markado last week came when they were down by a pretty decent amount the entire game to seattle And the spread for the baltimore game is now it's nine and a half So like betting markets are saying the baltimore should be heavy favorites here So that does align well with another week for d markado Let's take a look at some yardage props over at fandall sportsbook jj. Where is seeing value there across week number eight Yeah, you know the first one, uh, brian robinson his his prop on fandall for rushing yards is 40 and a half And i'm gonna hit the under with this one Uh, I know it seems kind of low to hit the under for a guy who's been You know sort of the rb1 in his backfield this year But he hasn't actually hit this number in each of his last three games He did get to 45 the last time they faced philadelphia earlier this year But his percent of running back rushes Um in this offense was a lot more favorable than than it is now. He had a 70% running back rush air in that game He hasn't been above a 60 percent running back rush air over his last two. It was below 50 percent this past week I'm worried and the reason why this is happening I'm worried that they're going to use rookie chris rodriguez more over the last two weeks 23 and a half percent running back rush air 41 percent running back rush air this past week Eric biannemy even came out and said that they want to just see what he's about essentially And so that tells me that he's probably going to still see some work in this backfield And if he sees some work, that means brian romances not seeing it So i'm going to go under and it's a rough match up to against philadelphia Who can stop the run and then the other one that i have the other yard yardage prop This one you can get better number a better number over on draft kings. It's 53 and a half It's 55 and a half on fandall, uh, but christian kerke. I like the over uh with that number going back to kerke Did this last time when he had a really good man matchup He's really really good when defenses run a lot of man Um, and and he's actually hit this he's been over this mark Uh, 53 and a half and five of his last six games. So that's also good Uh, but the stealers run the third third most man, uh coverage in the league Um this season. So I think this could be another christian kerke game You know calvin really seems to have more of an effect You know on the team itself Um and not the stat sheet so much just because he can get vertical He can draw a lot of attention and christian christian kerke is just getting a lot of those underneath routes Um that he that he can take you know, and he's he's got a lot of yards after catchability And so in this type of matchup, um where he can line up all over the field the stealers historically Have been really bad against slot guys too. Um, and so there's just a lot to like about christian kerke this week So I think that you can hit the over there probably on both sides if you really want to The stealers against slot guy things goes back like 15 years. Yeah, it's been yes It's been a thing for as long. I mean Forever, I mean it's it's a scheme thing for Tomlin and company and I know they've they've shifted defensive coordinators a decent bit since basically dick labo But it's basically been a problem for the stealers since dick labo Well, like I just remember like it was some island game and keen and allen like young keen and allen's like running routes against a linebacker Like 15 catches. Yeah Do you remember that game too? Um, I need that not to happen this week because I do the stealers money lines So if they could uh, you know, let him get his yardage, but let me get my money line. Yeah with the stealers there Which touchdown bets are you eyeing across week number eight? Yeah, look, so I mentioned the houston texans backfield, right? Um, and I like devon singletary a lot to see more work than what the market generally is is seeing whether that be Uh sports books or whether that just be like the fantasy market right now His touchdown prop on fan duel wasn't any time touched on score is plus 260 And if you look at damien pierce, it's minus 110 and that delta to me just seems way way too big What's what that's telling me is that these books think that there's a decent chance That one of these running backs is going to end up finding the end zone And it just seems like they're skewing heavily towards damien pierce But all the stuff that I talked about earlier with devon singletary seeing more work Um, you know, there's a really favorable matchup, uh against carolina. It was really bad against the run You know, I don't think that it's that improbable to think that uh, you know Devon singletary could see some work even within the 10 yard line even at the gold line Like that's a very possible thing, but even outside of that. I mean he can break a 15 yard run and score a touchdown Um, and he's also been used as the team's primary pass catcher this year too So I think there's just a lot to like with devon singletary You know versus damien pierce. Um, so I'm going to go with that plus 260 instead of damien pierces minus 110 And then the other one that I like is jake furgusson isn't any time touched on score I will say the last time I talked about jake furgusson. He scored a touchdown Uh, but he's plus 250 right now over on fandall Uh, he only had a 3 percent target share the last time we saw this cowboys offense before thereby But weirdly enough he had his highest route participation in that game of the season when they faced the chargers The rams have been really bad against tight ends this season their fifth and tight end target share adjusted target share allowed So essentially what that tells me is that teams when they're facing the rams They're throwing to their tight ends more than usual more than their average Um, and furgusson's actually a nice regression candidate. Uh, he's only scored once this year But he should have uh, about three touchdowns three or so touchdowns based on how the cowboys have used them So I really like jake furgusson this week is a plus 250 anytime touched on score You've uh, you've gotten ambitious with these. I like it You know, we used to have like, you know one like traditional like normal touchdown bad But I think because the success you've had you're just kind of letting it rip and I like it You've gone at the annual hack it was zack wilson on yourself and letting the touchdown bets rip I'll say this too. You know, sometimes I hop on the show and I'm like a six out of 10 seven out of 10 in terms of confidence I say this week with the touchdown scores. I'm like an eight out of 10 Like I think that they're very strong bets this week Okay, good vibes abound with jj for this week That is jj. Zachary's and check him out on twitter at late round qb fun is work at late round dot com In the late round fantasy football podcast jj. Good luck to you in week number eight. We'll talk to you again next week Thanks, jim Alrighty again Check out jj on twitter at late round qb to find all that work and check out the late round fantasy football podcast wherever You get your podcasts and those are props for sunday But before then we got a lot of excitement coming because tonight is game number one of the 2023 world series And who better to break it down for us then rob freeman You can find rob of course on twitter at pitching ninja find his work on mlb mlb on fox peacock and fan dual sports book as well and rob It is here the world series has finally arrived. How you do it today? I am doing great. I'm ready for baseball to come back. I know it's a weird layoff We had two game sevens and they're still a long layoff Like i'm glad it's a friday because I got to talk to you for game one like selfishly like it worked out Well for my schedule, but like what are you doing here downtime between games? I mean, I sleep Dude, I don't know random stuff around the house nothing all that interesting on twitter But you've been doing these fun things where you have like the the picture is like blacked out and like it's just like the wind up and like People don't know what i'm referring to this is totally like gobbledygook to them But like it's like you can just see the wind up of the picture and not see their actual Like their actual body and you're kind of guessing who it is. I've had much fun with those like the throwback ones Especially like that's I've had a blast with them. That's a really cool idea Yeah, you know, it's insane and and this is one of those ideas that because they don't sleep really well I woke up in the middle of night going. I wonder if people would like this. I'd like it. So let me try it Um, and it's been fun like i'm always surprised at how many times people get it with like every single one Within the first minute, maybe right somebody gets the right answer Which is absolutely amazing to me because somebody's are really hard Yeah, I mean like you've got like great baseball fans following you and I think that's been uh It's it's been a lot of fun. So i'm hoping you keep that up during the off season too I plan on it because okay, what else is there to do like we gotta have fun I agree could not agree more now the reason we have rob here for today is to break down the world series between The diamond backs and the rangers game number one begins tonight We'll talk about game one specifically here in a second but first rob I want to talk to you about these two staffs because like Honestly, we talk a lot about bullpen mattering in the post season and then somehow it's the diamond backs and the rangers facing off in the world series And like I didn't I don't know. I don't want to speak for you. I did not go into the post season being super high on these two bullpens so I'm surprised they've exceeded expectations. They've got guys going nuts in really key situations So I want to ask you overall accounting for starting rotation accounting for bullpen Which team holds the the edge as far as pitching staffs go for this series You know, I think it's really close. I would say especially starting pitching Is fairly identical. I mean, I don't know that I don't know who has an edge unless If brandon fought keeps pitching like he does then maybe I give the d-backs the advantage but I mean between montgomery and avaldi and and kelly and gallon and top two Flip a coin like I don't I whatever I say is going to be wrong. I'm pretty convinced at this point Bullpens. I probably give us this slide edge to the d-backs We've just raised their bullpen game a ton in this post season They certainly have and it's been fun to watch them It's been fun to watch individual players kind of rise in that bullpen too and pitch really well And it's not just a small sample anymore like the sample on them pitching well has expanded So like how much can your faith in those kind of surprise stars expand given that we've seen it over You know three series now Well, I'm pretty much convinced kevin ginkl is the best pitcher of all time and uh, like Like I freaking love that dude and I don't know where Maybe I just wasn't paying as good attention during the regular season But he has been on freaking fire and that dude slider is unhittable his fastballs, you know Upper 90s and he pitches with a lot of attitude and and I love everything about that guy And he's really helped carry this bullpen. Um, just he made small mechanical changes a few years ago Um, but really he's just risen to the occasion. It's just one of those guys And he's a big part of what makes the post season fun. That's a motion I want to watch players play with emotion and buddy. Does he do that there is no doubt Does he have any awards for uh, world series mvp any odds for world series mvp? You know what let's take a look here, um Because I'm going full ginkl on this I love it. You know what if we're going to be surprised by we might as well lean into it. Um, I mean help me find there's no I can't even bet on on the man Like what is up with that? Your guy Brandon fought 70 to one though. That that might I mean, that's actually a pretty good. Yeah I mean, he's you know, granny won't pitch a ton, but he might you know, just throwing it out there Yeah, like that's actually a really I might Chuck a bet on that. That's not too bad. Let's talk here about What's that 70 to one? Yeah. Yeah, it's not bad Let's talk about game number one tonight. We got Zach Allen taking on Nathan Yavaldi and I think with Yavaldi my expectations coming in were pretty low Because he struggled me back from that injury, but then My goodness new level for him the entire post season Zach Allen is Zach Allen So what are your expectations for these two guys entering tonight's game? My expectations are they're going to be horses And they're going to they're going to go deep because they're going to want to save the bullpen for the longer series I'm hoping that they're you know I'm expecting them to to get a lot of leeway today and for them to pitch well. I mean, I have a little layoff Um, you know, I expect gallon to be back to being Zach Allen And Yavaldi's been really good really steady as usual in the post season. So I mean, I'm looking for a good bit of case today I mean, I love k's anyway, but especially today because of that matchup Well, that's kind of what you need for post season k props, which are very tough. I honestly have not that Oh, my god, dude I have been terrible this post season. So honestly if you're out there, probably do the opposite of whatever I say It's just been really really bad But I think that that you're kind of looking at from the right perspective where like you need the narrative to align With the effectiveness where you need to make sure they're going to go deep in that game And I honestly I agree with you. We're like these are kind of the guys you want to lean on in this situation So I get what you're saying for sure with them, I think that does make a lot of sense and Four and a half her gallon is low But I I feel like Rob honestly It's still a stay away from me just because like these lineups are not ones that strike out a lot I think that's kind of the key like I'm talking myself out of it, which I would love to That's the key thing I lean on is I just don't want to target k props against these offenses I don't blame you. I mean again, I can't stay off the k props and I'm going I'm going like gallon six k's and evolvedy six k's because I expect them to go deep of all I mean gallon pitched okay against them last time you pitched. I expect him to make a couple of adjustments. Yeah, but Lord knows I'm not that Like the only game I mean this is how bad things are going like I I totally psyched myself out and went the under The the last game seven and both were overs I mean I I just can't buy one right now So I figured I might as well go all in with what I think will happen. It doesn't mean it's gonna Self-awareness is a better as important Rob. So proud. Definitely. That's good. That's good We talked about ginkle and he's kind of an under the radar picture We could have an eye on for this series any other guys you have like Noticed throughout the postseason you want to watch here during the world series Do you want to highlight here before we get into the actual games? Well, I mean I would say he's not under the radar But brandon fault is pitching like the best pitcher in the postseason and you know, he deserves some respect Like he just comes up big over and over again And I knew it like you watched him all season. He had the stuff. He just had to put it together And I think having his back against the wall putting that pressure on him And things just clicking for him at the same time has risen his game So what I mean, I'm not kidding when I look at those those award odds I mean, I'm I'm giving that a consideration. I also think a healthy john gray is important for the you know, the rangers I think they can put together some games that may be a Slight edge to them when they can use I mean you have the flexibility to use heaney dunning and gray So that may help some of their their bullpen issues and hopefully shorten some games for Going back to thoughts he had a point this year We got demoted back down to triple a and it seems like when he came back up Honestly, like I thought I saw it in his final start before the demotion He walked a lot of guys and that starts like I get why they sent him down But like in that start it seemed like something clicked and when he came back up He was a different guy. What changed what led to that that surge for fought But I think has honestly been over a pretty large sample at this point. It's been over. Yeah I mean it's throwing strikes. His sweeper has been outstanding. I don't know what his whiff rate The last game was something like 70 something percent on his sweeper And it looks unhittable. He marries it really well with his fast boys tunneling his pitch is great And it's just everything is tightened up. He dialed in his command So I'm seeing a lot of confidence and he's turned into the pitcher that you thought he would be But I also thought it might be a year or two off for him He's he's that pitcher right now and if he's going to get better from this Watch out league like that guy can pitch He's doing in key moments, which is really really hard to do at that age. So I've been very impressed with him Unflappable like, you know, it's I'm seeing a lot out of some of these guys And that's what I love seeing is is guys that I've been high on the whole year Actually raising their game in this situation and showing what I saw But I saw it in small set, you know, you pick up these little bits and pieces and then you see it for extended time It's been great. Yeah, and uh fought doesn't even this picture on fan dual sports But like we got pictures for all these other guys and fought doesn't even this picture So like you're talking about, you know, guys need more respect Exhibit a year on her exactly give the dude a picture. Um spores has been really good too I kind of like his game as well like give me those those emotional relievers that uh, just do their job is a lot of fun That's exactly what we want to see in the post season. All right, Rob It's Mona truth who you got winning it here for the world series between the rangers and the diamond backs You know, I think the odds should be a little closer than they are right now I mean, so I'm gonna go underdog again and I'll take the d-backs But I think it's a coin flip like this could go either way And I could talk myself into either way, frankly So I have the exact same thing as you where I have arizona fit. Well, I have the actual numbers I have texas 56.8 to win I have arizona 43.1 percent or 43.2 percent and plus 148 that means they're a value So even though I think the rangers are the better team here I think like from a betting perspective The diamond backs are the better out in this post season We've seen how volatile and weird and delightful this sport is so like I feel like you want to keep on exploiting that variance I hope like I I enjoy it. I do think their bullpen was underrated and you know Gave them chances in this in the previous series I still think people are selling them a little short I mean if you get normal games from gallin and kelly and then shorten games with the bullpen I mean, you can definitely see them winning. This is not a one-sided Thing now. It could be a sweep. Sure. It could be a sweep either way. Sure. I mean, you know I I can definitely talk either, you know either side on this So the fact that I can I'm with you I I'm looking for value that doesn't that doesn't mean at all that we're shading the The rangers because rangers very what mean probably rightly so the favorites correct Yeah, it's all about price and the price in the situation is better on arizona So we both think the rangers should be the favorites. We both think that arizona is the better bet I feel like that's the recipe for a good series rob. What more could you ask for? I hope so. I hope so well rob It has been a delight talking to you each friday throughout this year I appreciate you taking time to swing by on the show educate us talk about some baseball Enjoy the entire world series. Hopefully we'll talk to you once again in the 2024 regular season. Absolutely I can't wait to be back on we'll get the intro music out to you. So you can I know I kind of miss that Like that's the one thing that I've been missing for all ship it out to you So you can play it periodically throughout the all season and kind of keep yourself limber before pictures and catchers report Awesome. I appreciate it and thank you for the gifts. Uh, the the the weird Guess the picture gifts on twitter. I need those in my life. So thank you very much for those as well Awesome. I'm glad you're enjoying it. Alrighty rob. Enjoy. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks Alrighty that is rob freeman again. Check him out on twitter at pitching ninja If you want to see those really cool gifts like I was talking about just go to his twitter at pitching ninja You can find them there and there are two delight. It's a lot of fun to see all those on his page We're gonna dig into Nascar in martinsville second to last race before the last race before the championship race In just one second but first score early this nfl season with fan duel america's number one sports But right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet That's 150 bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fan duel There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fan duel and kick off the nfl season fan duel Official partner of the nfl must be 21 plus and president select states Fan duel is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino lfc First online real money wager only five dollar pregame money line wager required first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is non withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook dot fan duel dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan duel dot com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan New jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee and virginia call 1 800 next step protects next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 888 789 7777 Or visit ecpg dot org slash chat connecticut 1 809 with an indiana 1 805 224 700 visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 877 770 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health dot org in maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia 1 805 224 700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma dot org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 877 8 hope and y or text open y in new york Now as mentioned this is the final race of the nascar cup series Before the championship race which is next week in phoenix, which means Some drivers try to lock down that spot in the final four and one of those drivers is denny hamlin who is i think 17 points behind the cut line and You know needs a win to advance the final four He notoriously has not won a championship and he wants that this year's he's gotten past his peak Passes age 39 season so hamlin a lot of motivation here And i think that helps explain why he's three to one to win this race and my model likes him It's he's a favorite but Despite that i am still almost nine percentage points below his implied odds got him right on 16 percent so I like hamlin a lot think he should be the favorite but He's overpriced at that number So as a result i do want to showing value elsewhere. I should value and ryan blaney earlier on this week He was 12 to 1 he's down to plus 950 which is still a value for me, but it's not as good as it was before so Honestly, if you're just looking at the odds now i've not taken blaney yet Plus 950 i'd probably wait till after practice to grab that. I think that's probably Right around where he should be I don't i do have value on chase elliott 17 to 1 christopher bell 20 to 1 and kevin harvick 20 to 1 All at their current odds at fan dual sportsbook. I personally don't want to take any of those right now I may have to qualify those are kind of the three guys I am most likely to bet post qualifying are elliott bell and harvick Because i do show a bit of value right now The kind of want to see how things go in practice before biting there I do show good value in three top 10 bets right now at bandual sportsbook though So rather than talking about outrides, let's go there and those three top 10 bets. I like our chase elliott minus 110 I uh like alex bowman plus 200 and daniel swara is a plus 280 Let's start here with chase where this is a great track for chase elliott Now he has been inside the top 10 in nine of this past 11 races at martinsville So hendrick modus sports always does well here that does include chase elliott This year in the spring was not a good race for him, but it was I believe his first race back after a broken leg so I don't want to hold that too much against him And over way that in my mind. So it's not a huge concern for me He hasn't been fantastic on the short flat track so far this year but he's still going to top 10 in that first martinsville race He's been fine and I've seen him he's looked better from The beginning of the fall on so I think elliott minus 110 is a good bet I feel good about him Considering the outright of those three guys I discussed elliott's probably my favorite outright because he is the most in the line He's still in the owners championship race. So it's a big race for his team Even if he's not in the drivers championship So I do like elliott minus 110 to finish inside the top 10 Also on his teammate alex bowman a two to one bowman Not as good at martinsville as elliott, but still pretty good He's run 10 races here with hendrick motorsport and he's finished inside the top 10 for those the past two races He's finished 11th and 12th. So no top 10s there but right outside the top 10 And when you look at him on the short flat track so far this year He's still been pretty solid the overall performance for bowman has not been good Missed the playoffs not just because his back injury, but also because when he came back He wasn't really firing an all-cylinder. So It's been a down year for sure But he's two to one to finish inside the top 10 I have him at 42.4 percent to finish inside the top 10 his implied odds are 33 percent So I think bowman's a good value again second consecutive week back on bowman But I think that the value is there with where he currently stands Other one is daniel suarez and if you are an ascar fan and remember other martinsville races You're probably confused why we go here because suarez used to suck at martinsville was truly terrible Even his first race with track house. So 2011 and then the first race 2022 He finished 28th or worse in all three of those races So even when he was in decent equipment, he was still pretty terrible But the past two races have been very very different He has had a top nine average running position in both those races If it were just a one race sample, I'd write it off because You can see guys pop for a single race But it's two races both which have come in the next gen car, which is what he'll race this weekend So I put a lot of stock in those now and I think that we can not write off suarez's path struggles, but Downplay the concerns with them and once we do that. I have suarez at 35.3 percent for a top 10 His implied odds are 26.3 percent. So good value in both him and bowman I think I agree with what the model is saying on both those So for right now With the blaney outright number shortening we'll go with chase elliot minus 110 for a top 10 bowman at 200 And suarez a plus 280 to get top 10s for this weekend On the Xfinity series side of things do you have a couple outrides? I like and they're both on young guys named smith That is chanler smith and sammy smith Both have been dual sports book right now sammy smith is 12 to 1 Chandler smith is 30 to 1 and let's start with sammy because sammy is a guy my model has despised recently Because they've been at a lot of faster tracks and smith His background is in short track racing. I came up with believe the other car store Just like a late model stock cars So his background is in is in short tracks and that's where he's been his best in the xfinity series He actually won phoenix earlier on this year He struggled with the higher speed tracks, but he's been good on these He finished runner up in the first martinsville race and I buy into that I think that smith is a guy you need to to buck it off where when they're on faster tracks higher speed tracks It's okay to be away from him, but on these shorter tracks. I am very okay buying in to sammy smith So sammy smith at 12 to 1 a good bet based on my numbers for this weekend Other one has mentioned is chanler smith and if you are listening to this each week You know that I am on chanler smith every weekend. It's no different this week But again, I agree with what the model is saying here where smith chanler smith that is one richman It's a very different track from martinsville But it's another short flat track and he doesn't didn't just win richman He dominates that track whether it be in the truck series or the xfinity series And he's been good at martinsville in both series I believe he's had a top nine average running position in all three races at this track Whether it be in the truck series or an xfinity So it's a very difficult track to You know really pinned down Typically, I want to lean on the veterans And like, you know chase elliott alex bowman daniel swarras all veterans of the cuff series So we did go that way here, but With chanler, I think I've seen it enough Between truck series and xfinity on this track and on this track type where I buy into what the model is saying I have chanler smith at 6.7 to win his implied odds are 3.2 percent Kind of weird vibes here because you just got let out of his contracted colg racing for next year Likely going to replace sammy smith or john hunter nema check at joe gibbs racing So next year will be on chanler smith again for sure I can tell you that right now But I think even with the vibes being a bit off for both these guys because sammy smith is leaving Joe gives racing for junior motorsports like Neither guys with this team next year, but they also do want to be in the championship race So both these guys need wins uh this weekend And I think that both guys have a shot to do exactly that So the xfinity series will go sammy smith 12 to 1 and chanler smith at 30 to 1 In addition to the cup series top 10s from earlier on That is all that we have here for today and this week here on covering the spread But it is going to be a fantastic weekend of sports game number one of the world series tonight nfl week number eight nascar in martinsville nba nhl it is all on the dock and i am pumped for all of it Don't forget that prime time tom tom becchio going to preview sunday night football that podcast will be up In the covering the spread podcast feed on saturday morning And you have vandal tv plus as well to check that out if you want to get See some potentially value bets for the bears and chargers game on sunday night Thank you to our guests once again jjzak recent rob freiman find jj on twitter at late round qb and check out rob at pitching ninja I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can follow fan dual research at fan dual research want to thank you all for tuning in forward today Good luck to you with your bets and enjoy the sports this weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network