 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access to trader.com. Weekend Update Show, everybody is doing well. So crazy, crazy market. So last week, for all you guys who joined us on the weekend, last week we had the biggest rally, pretty much in all the indexes, since April of 2020. That followed the worst month, right? The absolute worst month in May 2020, or excuse me, March 2020, which was the introduction to this global thing of ours called coronavirus, right? And we had this really big rally last week, nearly 7% on the NASDAQ, and the question was going into this week was, well, what happens next, right? We knew we were probably going to get a digestion day or so, just to let the market kind of breathe a little bit. If you've been kind of watching the video us throughout the week, you've been seeing, you know, we've gone through distribution, right? A little pillow fight with the bulls and the bears in the phone booth. Nobody's doing any damage, but we're trying. We're trying. So you got like two, three days worth of rest. And if you notice here, this is the most important part, and it's kind of going to kind of segue into the next week as well. If you keep noticing, right, this is where we reclaim supply, right? The 20-day supply. You see this brown chart, right? Everybody see it? It keeps on bouncing off this brown chart. That's called the defense, right? That's the defense. That is now, used to be supply is now demand, and buyers are completely defending that level. That's super-duper bullish. And we went like two, three days like that in a row. And the most interesting part about this week was what happened on Thursday. If you guys remember, the market started brushing off bad news right around two weeks ago, right? You guys remember that when the video came out with earnings that were down 10, 12, maybe even 15 after the close. Snow was down like 10, 15 after the close. And then yada, yada, yada. That was the night that everything started getting a little bit better. And then we had that 500-point rally, really good reversal. And that was like the day, and this is the day right here. That was the day that we kind of realized. We kind of went from bearish to bullish, at least on that interval, because they started doing the most basic thing that stops selling, right? Sellers got tired, right? Bad news got engulfed, and that's when we reclaimed the 20-day moving average. But Thursday's session was incredibly, incredibly weird. It was wild. I'm kind of running out of things to say. If you traded into Thursday, you kind of know. Thursday morning, okay? Thursday morning, we got a Microsoft pre-announcement, right? They pre-announced, they lightened their forecast. And you know, if you would have told me on any random day, if this was 20 years ago, and Microsoft guided lower, Nasdaq futures would have been down the lock limit, right? So Microsoft comes out with this light forecast pre-market, and the stock is down 7 instantly, 7-8 points instantly. And you think you'd turn around and you'd be like, okay, Amazon's down 100, Google's down 400. Like everything's just getting destroyed, right? You look up and nothing really moved. Nothing really moved a lot. You had AMD down $1, NVIDIA down a couple of bucks. Tesla was down like 3, 4, and you say to yourself, oh, wait a minute. Didn't we already see this movie? There's no way they could do it again. There's no way they can, you know, last time it was NVIDIA and snow. Ah, nobody really cared at the big spectrum. But we're not going to really rally back again on a Microsoft pre-announcement. And lo and behold, we literally turned on a dime and yesterday was probably one of the biggest clues, one of the biggest bullish clues you could possibly have, negating not only bad news, but you're negating a financial forecast from arguably the top two, three weighted stocks on the S&P and the Nasdaq 100. That's a big deal, right? That's a screaming buy signal and literally everything went absolutely nuts yesterday, right? If you look, the Nasdaq went up about 3%, everything was gone. And at some point I'm like, I'm joking around. I go, hey man, if this Microsoft goes green on a day, like Nasdaq's going to be up 300, 400 points. And that's exactly what happened. Nasdaq was up like 350, just a huge, huge rally. So you're saying to yourself, if we can get, because again, Thursday nights, I don't do a video. I'll tell you it's Friday. The only reason I'm doing a weekend video on Friday, I have crazy basketball games. My daughter has soccer all over the place this weekend, so I'm crazy jammed. But what we were talking about was if we could just get a light volume open, right? Trap some shorts at the bottom of the range, we can have a massive, massive rally just because of what we saw yesterday. And this morning, you started looking at news and you saw the futures down, Nasdaq futures were down 60, 65 points. So like, all right, no big deal. And then you started looking at what was going on today, right? You started seeing Tesla. Tesla, Elon Musk came out. He started talking about a 10% potential work reduction, a hiring freeze, this, that and the third. You had numbers come out, job numbers come out. Biden is screaming, the economy looks great. We're screaming. We're paying $38,000 at the pump, right? Inflation is going up. How can the economy be great if the interest rates are going up and inflation is going up and nobody has any money, right? How could that be great? But that's not what happened, right? That's not the big thing. And the curious nature of this market is we always talk about stop the figuring things out, right? You know, you have a game plan. You know, tell me if you heard this before, you have a game plan and you wait like patient little statues for that game plan to confirm. And, you know, never in a million years, maybe a million and a half years. If I went to sleep last night, you told me this morning that we weren't going to follow through after yesterday's rally. I would call you crazy. And that's exactly what happened. You had the jobs number come out. You had the Tesla news come out. It basically anytime you say job freeze, job reduction, right? All that stuff. It means softening economy. It's the same going back in the same data as what we saw. Walmart, Target, Coles, Abercrombie, Ross stores all just say, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, nobody's spending any money, even Amazon, right? A couple quarters of Amazon as well. So it kind of reiterated what we already knew from the last quarter of earnings and they sent everything down. And obviously the biggest culprit of that of today's sell off was Tesla. Ironically, Tesla had such a good day yesterday, right? Everything got confirmed yesterday. You had the 772 confirmed, you had the 780 confirmed, you had the 787 confirmed. They were coming in for the 800, 805s, 810 weekly calls are expiring today. And this news comes out and not only did we not follow through, we close right at the 10 day moving average on Tesla. And if you look at names like Apple, Apple did exactly the same thing. Now here's the curveball, right? Let's talk about what we think is going to happen and what actually is happening. So if you look at the cues through everything here that's going on, you'll find the same common denominator, even though we just had a really outrageous pullback today out of nowhere, right? The one common denominator, the one constant that's still here is the bulls, this is what? Day five, the bulls spent a full week above the 20 day supply, right? That we reclaimed last Friday, they kept defending it. So when you look at a lot of charts over the weekend and today's Friday and I did all my work already today, you'll turn around and you go, yeah, Tesla looks like death. One more confirmation on the 10 day, this thing has a lot of room down. Apple looks like death, right? Apple looks terrible. Look at Apple, Apple looks absolutely horrible, right? It fell to the 10 day today and if the 10 day confirms, look how much room you have down. And you keep saying this and you're saying this and you turn around and say, well, look at the video. It's not really doing that bad. It actually looks pretty good. It had a big run up consolidation, big run up consolidation, right? Not horrible. You have a name, for example, like Google, right? You had a big run up consolidation, run up consolidation. That doesn't look horrible, right? And you start looking at all these different stocks, right? Square, you say, okay, this thing's starting to come down. Maybe this thing rolls over and then you turn around, for example, right? You turn around, for example, and you look at a stock, I don't know, like a stock, like a Rivian, right? Like a Rivian who didn't move. So you have a really big disconnect, right? You have a really, really big example of some stocks are strong, some stocks weak. If you've been watching this broadcast, we already know it's super important for all these things to go one way, right? You can't have Tesla weak and Facebook strong and Microsoft strong and weak. Amazon strong and Google weak. Speaking of Amazon, it's going to be really, really cool. And if Monday is going to be the first day that it's splitting 20 to 1. So that should be really, really cool, really interesting. We'll see hopefully you'll have a good range, right? Hopefully you'll have a good average to range. Hopefully you'll have a lot of liquidity and hopefully it gives me a lot more institutional interest in this name on a day-to-day basis. And who knows? Maybe it turns into another in the video. Maybe it turns into another Tesla as far as aggression, liquidity, right? It's speed and power. But the one thing that we're seeing with everything else in the market is a lack of commitment. So it's basically a scenario of, it's like you like this girl, right? And she turns to you one day and she says, you know what? I really could see a future with you. You're really boyfriend material. And you're like, wow, that's awesome. I agree. And then she turns around the next second she goes, but I'm not really ready for a relationship. You're like, what the fuck? That's exactly what this is. We're getting a lot of mixed signals. We're showing some weakness. We're showing some strength. And I think, again, it's very, very tough to turn around and be like, yeah, that's it. Tesla looks like crap. Apple looks like crap. They're definitely, definitely 100% going to confirm on Monday and everything is going to get pulled down. Maybe they do. Maybe they don't. But again, keep this in mind. We're not in the business. We're not getting paid for our opinions. Our opinions mean nothing, right? They're useless. They're only opinions. They're like ass to everybody has one, right? So the key element going into next week on, for example, the NASDAQ 100 to kind of show strength or weakness in unity, right? This 103 level here is super duper important. You can see here every single time it hits the 103, excuse me, 303, bounce, 303, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce. So that's the magic number, guys. Don't guess. As long as we stay above the 303, there will be opportunities to the long side. Okay? The moment we close below that 303 level, remember, we're still at the end of the day. We're still in a bear market. This has just been a bullish tendency, a bullish interval in a bear market. So again, bear market, bullish tendency, bear market, bullish tendency, right? Next is to see what happens next. But now we're slowly coming out of earning season. And now we're going to be trading on individual merits. We're starting summertime. Yes, you're going to have periods of the market. Certain days they're going to feel like they're super duper slow. But that's why we trade beta, right? When you have stocks that are putting in an average range of 20, 30, $60, $80 a day, you don't care about the quote unquote summer doldrums, because you know no matter what pivot you're looking at, it could give you really significant flow or it could give you very minor flow. But the point is you're still there to seize the opportunity. So going into this week, again, like I said on Thursday night's video based on today's close. And again, when you look at last week, right? You turn around, you go, well, Nasdaq was up 6.8%. This week, despite today's 2.5% loss, the market, you know, the Nasdaq was only down 1% for the week. So you say, well, that's net 5.8%. Doesn't that sound bullish, right? On the surface, that sounds bullish. And again, still defending that 303 level. The bear cases, well, wait a minute. I don't get what you guys are talking about. You're still in a bear market. There's nothing different between this rally than this rally right here. It's just a matter of time to lose this 303 level. We're going to go right back to the lows because, again, the data is telling us something's wrong with the tape. And how can you fight that if you're a bear? You're saying to yourself, how can you fight that if you're a bull? They just sold off yesterday's rally. That was the most bullish close you could possibly find. So the jury's still out. And that's the most important part. The jury's still out. We don't need to guess. I keep on reiterating every single night. We're not bulls. We're not bears. We're opportunists. And so we know the bottom of the range here. 303 is the magic number for the week. We know the upside bias. If the bulls start to pedal, like Fred Flintstones start pedaling their feet and start to recuperate, which is very, very possible. Because, again, they really are holding last week gains. We need to close above this 318 level next week to start moving back to the 50-day moving average to have a kind of a bigger, bigger pickager of what happens next through the rest of the summer. So again, just like the game plan going into today's session, you've got to have some longs on your radar. You've got to have some shorts on your radar. I think that's the play. That's definitely the play. And I think this is the time that you make your list. You wait for it patiently. You come Monday. And you strike with extreme confidence and extreme prejudice when it comes to that directional bias trait. So let me give you some ideas. Obviously, Tesla, I'm watching. I'm watching from Monday, again, the 10-day moving average. You see what happens on the 10-day moving average when it closes above the 10? When it closes above the 10-day, what happens? So we close below the 10-day moving average. Can you guess which side I'm looking at? So Tesla, I'm definitely watching. If there's more weakness, like I talked about, I'm definitely watching Apple. I think Apple looks pretty good if they start selling off the market. So I want to keep an eye on that. I like this VERU. We had a nice pivot. Congratulations, while you guys are still holding it today. We had a nice pivot today off this 1350 level. They had some $15 calls coming in for next week. If this thing starts building 15, 15, 15, you could get a move to 17. VERU looks really nice. Keep an eye also on Crowd. Crowd source. We had a nice pivot today off the 65 pre-market lows right here with the 65 pre-market lows. Nice move today. Reaction earnings. Keep an eye on this thing. This thing starts losing the 5-day moving average next week. You could see a move down to the 10. So keep an eye on that. There's another smaller name you guys should really watch. Look at the stock stem cell. Not a wonderful, wonderful chart, but it's kind of holding on to the 50-day moving average. There were buyers coming in on the June 17th expiration for the 10s. Numerous bets. Keep an eye on this thing. This thing starts building above this nine and a quarter level. This thing could really light up. Keep an eye on that as well. And also I like Square. I like Square if the market pulls back below this whole channel here. It's held it three times. So we definitely have things to do from both sides, but the most important part is again, guys, like I've been saying for years and years and years, if you're a brand new trader, don't try to guess, right? Don't try to figure this market out. It's baby steps. Figure out what's comfortable for you. Figure out what your lifestyle and your personality is. Obviously, your account size is important. Don't let anybody tell you that you could trade with a small account. You need money. This is a business. You need money. The more money you have, the better chances you are of extending your shelf life. Remember, you cannot open up a steakhouse because you want to. It's because you have $12 in your pocket. You need money. Why do you think trading is any different? So the most important part is don't rush your progress. Let everything kind of break down organically and learn, right? Just learn. Just keep on being like a soaking sponge. Keep on taking everything in and eventually, hopefully you have enough staying power that the light bulb is going to eventually click. Guys, God bless. Have a great, great weekend. I know it's Friday. Nobody's used to seeing me on a Friday, but God bless everybody. Have a great weekend, and I will see you all on Monday. Take care.