 Rwy'n meddwl gwybod a gweld i'r Brytai, ac Brytai yn Europol yn y rhaid i'ch gwneud o'r cyfweld yma, gyda'n cyfweld i'r hyn amioedd ymgreadig. Rwy'n meddwl gydag am ymgyrch. Rwy'n meddwl i'n meddwl gyda eu Seminarsau Europol, ac rydych chi'n gweithio'r Brytiau ddod i'r Rhyw, efallai dda'r ffordd ar hynny. Rydyn ni'n gweithio arna i'n mynd i'r llyfr yn ymgyrch chi'n gwybod i'r cyfweld. I enw yw'n gwirionedd i gael y gweithio, ond byddwn yn credu y gweithio ar Eurwyrnig byddiwyll yng nghymru 2017. Mae oedden nhw'n gweithio yma yn 100% oed yn gweithio ar gweithio. Felly mae'r gwisbwynt yn Llywodraeth yn ymwyaf yr David Cameron yn ysgolio'r cydyn nhw'n cydyn nhw. A dyna'n ei chael arhoedd hynny. Ar hwnna dwi'n gweithio'n mynd i hynny, ond yn mynd yn gweithio'n mynd o, mae'r ysgrifennid hynny'n goch cymdeithio'r gweithio'n gweithio, ond hoffi'n gwneud am y tîm gweithio'i mynd yn digwydd. Y dyma yng Nghymru yn ff egweld i ymddangos rŷn gym� eich gweithio'r yr ennillu yn y blynyddiadu, ar y dyma i gael eich perosig, ein gwir yw'r holl variants. Roedd yma yn holl tîm ei heir o fransion, The House of Lords is taking its time with the referendum bill because the House of Lords has imposed a 4 month waiting period. By the time the bill passes, it will simply be too late to call a referendum for next spring. That causes a problem because, of course, the alternative date will be September next year people will talk about September 15, 2016 as a possible date for a referendum. The danger with that is that every September We have a migrant crisis. As you cannot hold a referendum on EU membership while the Mediterranean is flat, because a migrant crisis is grist to the middle of Nigel Farage and his allies, and it will increase the vote to leave. Leaves the government faced with a dilemma, they could try for a really risky November vote. November's problematic, we've had one set of elections in the recent past in November. er ffordd am roeddaeth ineswy. Mae cymryd i'n gweithio i'r gael â 12%. Fy chi wnaeth y cerddaeth o'u gweithio yn fath i November. Mae'r cyrfi yn cyfrifol o'r neo'r 2017, felly felly, yn gweld y bobl yma, rwy'n gyfl停 biodiversity ar ôl yn y cerddaeth yng Nghymru a'r pryd. Felly, mae'r femwysau'n cyfrifol. Yn ei wneud hynny, mae'r pobl yn yn ôl yn ycredigau. Mae'r pobl yn ein oedd o'r tro i ddiadau fel y llegadeth Cymru ychydigolodd, ond roedd gen i'r tyn�od o'r drwyddiad o'r awgrif iaith. Poeitio'r unigion y byddai hyn o'r pwrdd peirach ar y brifysgolio fel tynnais yn ei effaith o'r blaid i'r talogau niadol, a'r byddau yn cael eich mynedd a'u mawr yn effeithio'r peirach a'r holl bobl yn cael ei eu defnyddio. Felly mae'n cael ei ddraidd yn cerddol iaith i'r bryddiad y brifysgolio chi, roeddwn nhw rydw i fod yn mynd i gweld hynny'n gwneud am y cyfle ac yneryddio i'r cyflymau ac yn yr unrhyw cyflwyneud, maen nhw y canfeyn yn cael ei gwasanaeth a'r ddeall y dyfodol, ond oes bod gan sefydlu yr hynny'n cael eu … o'i menfu, a oedden nhw'n gweithio i ar ddietrach, oherwydd mae hi'n rhaid i'r cyfan, fel y byddai eu defnyddio i ddeall y sydd yn teimloedd â'n roi bobl yn gweithio i ddeall I know is a contradiction, but I think that is buried deep within the heart of this renegotiation. It's totally pointless for at least three reasons. One because much of what Britain is trying to achieve it has already achieved. That is to say, if we want to legislate on migrants who don't have jobs we can do that through national law. If we want a European Union that is more committed to competitiveness and to growth, we got it already. We don't need to mess about. Dawg ddweud safeh hated infront of our eyes by the new European Commission. So many of our demand are already there. We have already also got an effective statement on ever closer union. There is a statement on ever closer union in the treaties that the Conservative Party never seemed to read because after the phrase on ever closer union it says none of this should undermine the fact that we are dealing with separate nation states with their own cultures, histories and so on. And of course we have the June 2014 European Council that said ever closer union might i'n mynd i'r wneud o'r ddysgu cyfnoddau cyfnoddau cyfnoddau. A os y gallwn y dyfodol yn cael ei wneud, os mae hynny'n gwneud. Y drwsgwr y dyfodol yn cael ei gweithio yw'r unig. Felly mae'r dyfodol yn cael ei wneud, mae'n cyd-bwynt. Mae gondol sy'n cael ei wneud, sydd yn cael ei cyfnoddau cyfnoddau cyfnoddau gwybodol i wneud cyfnoddau cyfnoddau arfer o'r eu ddiweddol o'r ddysgu cyfnoddau.yn yn cael ei d Campaign i ddim yn ei hunain drws gweithoedd. Yn gyn rydych chi'n gwirio'r Pwysig, mae wedi bod yn enwedig i'ch blwyddyn yn ei ddim yn ei dail yn ei ddim yn ei ddatblygu i ddim yn ei ddatblygu i ddim yn ei ddatblygu i ddim yn ei ddweud. hen'n amlwg rydych chi'n gwirio'r dyf yn ddim yn Llandon yn cael ei ddwylo rath o'r sefyllfa sefydliad o'r rhai oedd a lly höfnodol o'r drws gweithio'n meddwl iawn. yw aeb a oed. Mae cyfnod oes gweld yn cael ei weld yn cael ei gweithio, ac mae'n cael ei gweithio. Mae'n cael ei gweithio ni'n cael ei gweithio yn cael eu leilwyr lle, ac mae'n cyfrifredin gyda'r newyddau ar gyfer y ffordd o'r cyfrifredin newydd. Ond, rwy'n meddwl i ddweud yr cyfnodol ffrifredin yn y EU, mae efallai cyfrifredin yn y bryd o mwyaf o gweithio yn y ffôr i mi. Mae'n gweld, byddwn i'n ei wneud fwy o'r Mae'r eich sgwpethau i'r Brytyn yn ymweld yn ymweld yn ymweld yn ymddangos, yw'r llyfr yn cymdeithasol i'r cymdeithasol i'r cyfweld i'r cymdeithasol i'r ffwg. Ym ymwyaf, o'r pwyntlwys i'r ymweld, mae'n ymweld i'r eich zon. Ymweld i'r ymweld i'r Brytyn yn ymweld i'r ymweld i'r union ymweld i'r eu rhaid i'r zon ond yn ymddangos y gallwn i'r ffordd yma sydd wedi'u ffordd a'r rhan o'r pannadau yn y maen nhw. Ond rwy'n cael ei wneud i fynd yn dweud i ymdangos. Rwy'n cael ei fod yn arferinol o'r cyfrifio sydd yn ymddangos, a'r ffordd yn arferinol, ac mae'r cyfrifio'r cyfrifio sydd yn allan. Ond rwy'n cael ei wneud i fynd o'r cyfrifio sydd yn ansod. Ond yn ymddangos, mae'r credu yn ymddangos ar gyfer eu cyfrifio yn ymddangos ..a'r prosesau yn y Uniwyr. Felly yn ymdweud y euro'r rhan o'r gynhyrch yn ffyrdd ymlaen. Yn ymgyrchol, ymdweud yno? Yn ymdweud, fel David Cameron yn ymdweud yma. Yr ymdweud yw, yw'n gweithio'r refforddau... ..y'r gweithio'r refforddau. Yn ymdweud yw'n gweithio'r gweithio. Yn ymdweud, mae Cameron yn ymdweud... ..y'r gweithio'r George Osborne... ..y'r gweithio'r refforddau. Felly ydych chi'n cael eu refforddau? Yn ymdweud yw'n bwysig y gallu cyntaf fyddio... ..eitho'r trafyn ychydig iawn o'r un... ..y'r un i'r oedol am eu ystod o'r euwsguptych... ..ynt yn dechrau eich geilig... ..l nowherebain yma o'r blant ymlaen... ..i eisiau rhaid i bwysig... ..i wneud i ddechrau... ..yna ddiwrnod ymweithio'r refforddau... ..aeth y gallu Ideoliogon. Felly ond yw'r reaforddau. ymdyn nhw'n ei wneud ei fod yn cychwyn i chi'n gweinio sut yn meddyliadau ystod o'r pethau ar y cyfnodol o'r cyfnodol, sydd yn gofynu'r cyfnodol o'r cyfnodol i chi'n gwneud yn gweinio'r cyfnodol. Mae gennych chi'n gweithio yn ymgyrch yn cyfnodol yn y cyfnodol yn ei wneud yn gweithio'r cyfnodol. Mae gennych chi'n gweithio ysgrifennu, rydyn ni'n wedi'i chen nhw. If we can manufacture a fight with the Francois Hollande at a European Council, then come back and appear to win, that will strengthen the Prime Minister's hand immeasurably, regardless of what he managed to renegotiate for the country. It's also a sad fact that British public opinion responds incredibly well to this. There have been two spikes in support for British membership of the EU over the last five or six years. The first occurred when we, well in Britain we call it vetoed, I realise that's not true because you signed it anyway, but anyway, to use our language when we vetoed the fiscal compact. There was a sudden surge in support for membership of the European Union, and the second was when David Cameron made his Bloomberg speech. The fact of the matter is, and I'm not justifying this, the Brits like the feeling that they're out on a limb, they're fighting the rest and they're winning. That is good politics at home. So if you want to win a referendum, ignore the talk about let's have a positive campaign, organise a good fight, and give the appearance of having won it, and that way the people will come with you. So that's the renegotiation. On the campaigns, and of course over the last couple of weeks both campaigns have started launching themselves. We now have one remain camp and two leave camps. So let me start with the leave camps first. They are divided. They're divided between two organisations, one called Vote Leave, one called Leave.eu. Vote Leave is, if you like, the mainstream, what Nigel Farage might call the Establishment campaign. It's the campaign that's run by the guy who ran the No2AV campaign, the guy who set up the Taxpayers Alliance, and has a number of supporters among MPs, including, and I'll come back to this, Douglas Carswell, who is supporting the campaign that is different to the one that the rest of his party is supporting. Their focus is on trying to convince the people who aren't visually Eurosceptic to vote against membership. They are focusing on the A and B social classes and their arguments are going to be centred around two things. One, control the democracy argument. We are too big a country to be controlled by other people. We are big enough to go by ourselves. If we could make our own decisions we would be better and better off as well. And the second is the cost of membership. That is to say, this particular strand of the leave campaign will stress our contributions to the budget and how much better off we would be if we could spend that budgetary contribution on, well, filling the blanks as you see fit. They are saying different things to different audiences. So for some people they'll say we'll spend it on nurses, we'll spend it on the armed forces, we'll spend it on universities, if they're talking in universities, I mean they're very free and easy about how they will spend this money that we will save. But they're their core arguments. Leave.eu, funded by a multimillionaire who has bankrolled UKIP for many years now, includes all of UKIP apart from its one MP, who as I said is in the wrong camp, and various other Eurosceptic groups such as the BRUGE group. Their issue is the core issue that has motivated UKIP voters over the years, which is immigration. That is what they will bang on about. We cannot control our borders unless we leave the European Union and look at what's happening with migrants. It just gets worse and worse, doesn't it? Nigel Farage crystallises, if you like, the tension between the two camps. His view and the UKIP view is we run this campaign as an anti-establishment insurgency with our, as they call it, people's army. We get the UKIP votes out, we get the knocking on doors, and they criticise the in campaign for being too establishment. It's all business and politics and you hate those people so vote with us. Farage's opponents on the leaf side say he's a massively divisive figure and he will not persuade anyone who is not already persuaded because he's toxic. He puts people off. In fact, one of the interesting things that a pollster said to me recently is, I mentioned before that BRUGE support for EU membership rose steadily before the last election, and it rose at the same time as support for UKIP rose. The explanation that people give is that, yep, more and more people are inclined to support UKIP, but as UKIP became more prominent, being seen to be anti-EU was seen as more socially unacceptable because it was identified with UKIP. So if you like, the more middle class voters who might have expressed a preference to leave the EU started getting slightly embarrassed at being identified with UKIP and so changed their mind. And in a nutshell there, if you like, you can see the Farage effect. He can mobilise his forces brilliantly. What he can't do as well is reach across and convince waiverers, which is why we have these two leaf camps. The remain camp is far, far more simple. It's called Britain Stronger in Europe. Two things should strike you about that. One is the whole debate on both sides will be about strength and patriotism. You don't win a referendum in Britain by saying, but we're only a small country so we need the EU to survive. That is a losing vote from day one. So you have to say either we will be stronger out or we are really strong in, but strong has to be there and patriotic as well if you could fit it in in a cohesive sentence. The second thing of course is the name doesn't include European Union because it seems to me that the key that the in camp have identified is to mention the EU as little as possible in their campaign to remain within it. You talk about Europe, which just sounds a whole lot cuddlier and nicer and less threatening than the European Union. And you certainly don't say Brussels very much either. On the surface, the remain campaign is more united. They've appointed Lord Rose who's a Tory peer who was known previously as a Eurosceptic to try and get to those swing voters who don't want more and more Europe. They're not Euro files. They just don't want to leave. And he was chosen precisely to appeal to that demographic. They have supporters from across the political parties. They have support from a lot of business. They are attacked by Nigel Farage as being the Westminster bubble and the establishment. Their argument is that should be enough because ultimately if you have a campaign where people are worried, they will listen to the establishment more than they will listen to Nigel Farage. The interesting question here I think is what Labour does. Labour have launched their own separate remain in the EU campaign headed by Alan Johnson who's one of the most popular politicians of this generation of politicians. I'll come back to that in a minute because I think what Labour end up doing or how Labour voters end up voting is going to be absolutely central to the outcome of the referendum. The final issue is leadership. Neither side has happened upon a leader who can inspire. Both sides are desperately trying to persuade Boris Johnson that he's their man. Boris is known in Britain as the Heineken politician because he reaches the parts that the politicians cannot reach. And he's seen as absolutely fundamental by both sides as being able to reach across the divide and to persuade undecideds to come over. But neither side has yet has announced its sort of spokespeople. And as ever in today's world, the messenger will be as important as the message. If you can get a celebrity with X million Twitter followers to be on your side, that will have an impact. And I'm sure I know for a fact that both sides are out at the moment looking for their celebrity backers because that will weigh on this debate. Now I want to talk briefly about the politics which often gets forgotten but forgotten but which is absolutely central. For some people the referendum is just that, it's a referendum. These are the people who wake up every day either wanting a federal Europe or hating Europe so much they can think of nothing but leaving. And this is what dominates them and motivates them. They're a very small proportion of the British population. For other people and you take UKIP and the Labour Party, the referendum isn't just about Europe, it's about setting the political scene for the run up to the next election. So politics doesn't stop when we vote on Europe. Voting on Europe is a step on the way to a larger political objective and that is crucial. Labour and the Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary Hillary Ben has publicly said he's worried about the stronger in campaign because it looks too corporate, because it contains Tories and because it is linked to the Westminster establishment. And his worry is this will just reinforce the impression that was given by the referendum in Scotland amongst Labour voters in traditional working class heartlands that they're all the bloody saying why shall we vote for them and they will continue hemorrhaging support to UKIP. So Labour are very, very concerned about being part of this mainstream campaign because it might cost them even more support in their traditional heartlands. What Alan Johnson decides to do, how separately he decides to campaign is not clear yet but I would be very surprised if leading Labour politicians shared platforms with Conservatives during the referendum campaign. And that is if you like mainstream Labour. Corbyn Labour shows no interest in the EU. At the Labour Conference that I attended in Brighton a few weeks ago, there were sort of two conferences. There was one in the hotel where all the sort of old, well what we now, not old Labour, it's hard to get the terminology right, former Labour. The Labour that didn't vote for Corbyn were hunkered down in this hotel and in the conference centre were the Corbynites and the Corbynites didn't talk about Europe at all. It's not an issue. So I find it hard to believe that Corbyn will mobilise this new army of supporters he's got into the Labour Party in favour of EU membership. And also it's worth bearing in mind that actually it is quite hard to find a good social democratic rationale for staying in the European Union these days. It's pretty easy to say businesses do well. It's pretty easy also to say okay every single academic economist you could ever ask says membership of the single market makes the British economy bigger by one or two or three per cent. One of the problems you have with that is that in Britain since the financial crash normal voters will listen to that and say well you might get three per cent my standard of living hasn't changed for years. So aggregate growth doesn't mean anything for me what helps me. And Labour and I think social democrats in general in Europe at the moment are struggling to find a narrative that links those ordinary core centre left voters to European integration. Structural funds we get very little at the moment. Europe looks like a thing that helps big businesses and helps people who are relatively well off. Europe empowers capital but it relatively disempowers Labour because they're not as mobile as capital is. And the sort of declining industrial heartlands of England if you go and talk to them about the European Union it's seen as part of the great neoliberal wave. Finding a story to tell that class of voter will be absolutely fundamental and I see no signs of a convincing story yet. It is perfectly conceivable to me that Labour will win the referendum and lose the politics. That is to say that Britain might vote to stay in but Labour will hemorrhage more support to UKIP in the north and do even worse when it comes to the 2019 European Parliament elections. What that means I don't know if the calculation is if the polls show this is likely to be the case. I wonder if Labour won't be very half hearted indeed in its support of continued membership of the European Union. The whole thing puts Labour in a bind. Labour are being asked to want what is completely opposed to their own political interest. For Labour support of the European Union what we want is a Europe that is prosperous with a British economy that is doing well. With no major crises facing the government that remains relatively popular even at mid term and will vote with the Tories and will campaign with the Tories to keep us in the European Union. Imagine how that looks in the Labour heartlands. The Farage argument that they're all the same then becomes true. How Labour squares that is going to be very interesting to watch. On the other side the big question is Boris Johnson. I think it's probably fair to say that Boris Johnson expected to be leader of the Conservative Party in opposition now and he isn't. I've never met Boris Johnson I don't know him personally but the impressions I get is that he's not the world's most patient man. And that therefore the notion of playing nicely on the back benches until either David or George Daines to give him a decent job and get promoted through the usual channels might seem a little bit of a bore to him. I wonder whether in the back of his mind he isn't thinking the way to do this quickly is to head the out campaign. You could lose the referendum and win the Conservative Party. It's perfectly plausible to imagine a scenario where the majority of Conservatives vote to leave, the majority of the country votes to stay, the Conservative Party is split and Johnson wins the election to be leader of the Conservative Party. It is no coincidence that Boris Johnson has been talking to the out campaign about this two referendum scenario that some in London are talking about. And this is the scenario whereby we have a referendum, we vote to leave, the Europeans bless them are so devastated at the thought of losing us because they can't cope without us that they come running back to us and say look if you're really going to leave we'll give you anything you want promise please come back. We have a second referendum on the back of the fact that the Europeans have given us everything we could ever have wanted from them even if it prejudices the French and we vote to stay in. Which makes the leader who sees us through that rather convoluted and totally unimaginable process looking very, very popular indeed. I champion the Eurosceptic cause but I kept us in Europe. That really is the magic blend. As I said I think it's totally impossible but you can see why people like Johnson have been discussing it. If he leads the out campaign it could have an impact on swing voters. It could. I'm not saying it will but it's worth watching. So where do I think this referendum campaign is going to go? Several things. Turn out will be key. Turn out particularly on the left will be key I suspect. The skeptics will be out. The skeptics will be queuing at 6am to vote. It's the soft pro-EU people that we need to think about and particularly the soft pro-EU people on the left because A the leadership isn't committed to membership. We've seen that from Corbyn. Because B there will be a temptation on the left to see the referendum as Cameron's poll. I've got a friend who said to me the other day I'm going to vote to leave. I said why? He said just to give Cameron a bloody nose. That seems to me to be playing awfully fast and loose with the national interest for the sake of short term shard and froida but there will be people like that who say why should I bother to support Cameron and his renegotiation. If the left don't show the outers could win it seems to me. There's a whole load of contingencies that we can't control by definition. What's the migration situation like? What does a eurozone economy like? Are the Greeks having another crisis? What's the British economy doing? All those things will shape the outcome in very, very significant ways. Which is why the later we leave the referendum the more dangerous it becomes because you run out of wiggle room. By the time we get to September, by the time we get to June 2017 then we have to have the referendum that August and even if there's a catastrophe in the eurozone even if there's a migration crisis we have no flexibility left. So contingent events are going to be absolutely crucial. For what it's worth and I can assure you that it's worth very, very little indeed what I predict now would be we'll have a relatively close vote which will probably be for Britain to remain in. But it will be a relatively close and appallingly bad tempered vote because the inside will run a negative campaign. There is no narrative in Britain to wed us to the European Union. One of the reasons why we're a bit different from many other member states is for most other member states there is a European integration is an economic project that was designed for political objectives. So if you're one of the six it's a market to prevent war. If you're one of the eastern countries it's a market to bring us back home into Europe. If you're one of the southern countries, I mean that geographically not the way they use it nowadays. If you're one of the southern countries it's about an economic project meant to entrench democracy after dictatorship. For Britain European integration is an economic project for economic objectives and what that means is our consideration of European integration tends to be very cost benefit, very transactionalist. There is no positive political narrative. You can't go around Britain saying vote for in because of the dreams of political union because people will vote for out. So the case you make then is you will lose money if we leave. It's an automatically negative case and the remain campaign will make that negative case over and over and over again. You'll see business leaders. You'll see politicians coming out saying if we leave it'll be catastrophic for your jobs mate. I realise you don't like it. None of us like it but if we leave you're going to be out of work. What that means is if we do vote by a small margin to stay in we vote in a very bad tempered and grudging way. It means it is quite likely that post referendum UKIP surges because people take it out in the next election saying I feel bad about being bullied to vote against my heart. And that the referendum question remains on the agenda of British politics for the converseable future. That if you end up in a situation where UKIP poses a threat to the mainstream parties they will pander to it and how do you pander to UKIP you promise another referendum. I think if we vote to stay by a smallish margin we will do it again within the next 10 or 20 years with more uncertainty and more of this rather horrible spectacle. A couple more things very very briefly. One, if we vote to leave it will be a trauma because of the sheer complexity of the negotiations involved. And that for those in Britain who think if we vote to leave they will give us a very very good deal. The cautionary note I would sound is no government that faces a Eurosceptic party at home is inclined to make leaving look fun. They will be inclined to make leaving look like a nightmare from hell if only to teach a lesson to their Eurosceptics at home. Because if we vote to leave and get a great deal what do you think Marine Le Pen will say the next day I'll have a bit of that. And then you have contagion gone wild. The second thing I'd say about if we voted to leave it is very very hard to see as adopting a Norway position. Much of the campaign will be about democracy and sovereignty. You can't campaign to leave based on arguments about democracy and then accept a situation where you have even less control than if you were a member which is effectively what Norway has. So I think we either leave or we stay but a half way house is going to be very very hard politically. And just to wrap up I'd say there are real parallels here for me with Scotland. That you have a negative campaign and you have a negative campaign which the status quo side wins because status quo tends to win in referendums if there's any doubt because people are scared about the unknown. But the people who are scared are not happy with themselves for being scared so continue to support the cause in other ways. For SMP in Scotland and UKIP in England. And that this continued uncertainty you know way back four five years ago when we were talking about referendums I used to think this is it. This is the thing that will mean it's a horrible analogy and I'm sorry for using it straight after lunch. This will lance the boil of British relations with the European Union. We'll go out we'll have the vote whoever wins wins that's it done. I no longer believe that. I now firmly believe that A the Brits are getting quite keen on their referendums and that B we're not the in camp is not going to win by enough to settle this once and for all. And so we will vote and this will fester on and maybe I'll see you back here in 20 years and we can do it all over again. Thank you very much.