 My name is Anthony Chung. I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. If you'd like to access our private chat room to exchange trade ideas with professional traders from around the world, then check out Amplify Live by following the link below. Okay, very good morning to you. Hope you had a great weekend. It's Monday the night of November, just coming up to 7 a.m. here in London. And gonna have a quick rundown of the weekend news and summary and then look at the key events to be aware of for this trading week ahead. Also gonna cycle through a couple of the charts cause some quite interesting levels that we're trading at the moment, including the fact that U.S. equities in regards to NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 are in striking distance again of record all-time highs. This of course comes after you're seeing here on the screen. Joe Biden has been announced more formally now as winner of the U.S. election. So we can have a look at that and what that means going forward. So let's get straight into the charts starting off with, I just locate my mouse, there we go. So, yeah, very much a trend-wise, similar theme to last week post the election. So equity index futures generally higher. It's just coming off the peak now but overnight in Asia, that far East, kind of Asia-packed region following suit. U.S. futures and NASDAQ's are really up over 250 points to DAX up. Well, the Dow future up 330 points. Consequently, the DAX is up about 224 after gapping higher this morning and finding a little bit of resistance around this R2 in the overnight Asia-packed session. Dollar touch softer, so the pairs in the dollar-based market are slightly supported by that. Euro, dollar and cable up around 10 and 25 pips each, respectively. Oil price is also up to shy of one dollar as well in the general theme that's been ongoing, which is still the Biden victory, just overall some positivity on the back of that. T-notes pretty flat for the moment. So, going through a couple of these charts then, a few things I wanted to have a look at. I'm gonna start with generally the equity market because that really was quite a driving force of price activity and sentiment last week. And as you can see here, and that's that 100, pretty much as soon as it reopened trade on Globex to shop higher through the first couple of hours of Asia-Pacific trade. And I've just marked up here on an intraday chart, a couple of key kind of technical levels to keep an eye on, one being the more near-term area of support of which the market has found a bit of a floor and a bounce as Europe has come in. And that was the initial kind of support level after the surge higher that was seen, the recommencement of trade. So I think that would be quite a key area to keep an eye on a break of that. Markets could be quite heavy back down, probably the next target would be around that S or what would be R2 here, then turning support around that previous spike high as well we had just before midnight London time. So kind of a pretty break there, looking for support there. And if not, then we might see further price response that around those initial lows seen around these candles to some of the overnight activity. And then really not a great deal much to a much stronger level, which was down towards the peak of price activity on Friday session, which was tested on multiple occasions, around 12, 119 and a half. Consequently then the daily high now seen up at around 12, 409 to keep an eye on. But if we'd change this to a daily continuation, there's a few other things we can have a look at here as well, one being that how close we are now to retesting the all-time highs. Here it is right up at this level here and we are within striking distance. And could we hit that within this session? Well, you've got about another 110 to go till we get there. So definitely could well be the case, but you can see the acceleration we've had since the night of the election. It's been quite incredible really. And the overall main factor driving the push higher of course has been these mega cap tech names once again. As you can see here, the FT talking about the kind of fan trade back on after the election. You can see across the board, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook have all taken quite a distinct V recovery from what was a little bit of selling pressure in the week prior to the election to fully retrace and some on that move. Given the fact that obviously a split Senate, although we've had a Biden victory, does tie his hands somewhat in being able to aggressively change legislation which is seeing short term as a good positive catalyst for those stocks. In addition to many other things such as things like COVID-19 still progressively worsening at this point in time which tends to play more favorable to these mega cap firms who are better positioned from a business structure point of view under those types of circumstances. So mega cap tech continues to push on. So yeah, that's kind of the intraday and more longer term picture. Definitely going to be keeping an eye on that all time high. Would not be a surprise at all whether today or this week to see that getting retested at some point. I definitely think people are talking about how stretched now valuations are becoming again. It's kind of like, well, we've been here many times before where valuations have been stretched and we've continued to push higher. So I don't really think that's too much of an obstacle looking at the market from that particular point of view. Here in the S&P 500 again, just put a rectangle box here very close to retaking those all time highs that we've seen around the beginning of September just zoom in a little bit here. We'd have to get up to around 35, 86 and a half and we're trading only around 40 points away from that at the moment. So again, giving with this close it would seem unusual not to at least have a little knock on the door and around these all time highs given how quickly the markets come up. I still don't see any reason for an aggressive pullback without first at least having a bit more of a proper test up and around those levels. The currency markets, as I said, the dollar is a little bit weak and one thing I wanted to have a look at here was, I mean, this is Euro dollar on a much more focused 30 minute candlestick and you can see here we're just breaking up to fresh highs actually as Europe come in early doors just breaking above the Asia Pacific range high here. But looking on the daily chart for the Euro is quite a key area. This was the high that we had back on the 21st and you can see here, just gonna mark this up from previous highs that we've seen. So this was September, kind of a zone really here between what was about 119 kind of hands was 24, which was the highs you can see here and here. And so Euro dollar at risk now of technically breaking out of this kind of near term range that had kept the price activity really throughout the last almost two months or so. So any further upside definitely would be of interest to their monitor ECB commentary despite the growing expectation of them to deliver more monetary stimulus coming the end of the year. That doesn't at the moment counteract what has been an upward moving Euro dollar pair on the back of dollar weakness that was so predominant last week. So worth keeping an eye there as well, key levels in the Euro. Also the pound, gonna talk about some Brexit articles and get you up to speed on a few things. But again, cable the better factor of just a weakening dollar at this point in time. As you can see here, similar type of setup just retesting the overnight Asia pack high and looking on a daily continuation here for sterling currency. It is quite a key level actually. You can see here there was that high that we printed going back to 21st of October. That was when we shot higher on the resumption of Brexit talks after Boris had been threatening to walk away from the deal. We also had other periods as well where the government imposed new restrictions within the country. So we're just having a test and perhaps a look above there now. You can see these were previous highs that we were trading back pre-pandemic and also on the recovery highs that we're seeing in early August. So any break here, again, does look quite favorable for a continuation of a decent move higher in cable from here on out. Now we can break out of this particular range capped by a 3182 in the futures. So again, across these charts, equities and the major currency pairs, some relatively interesting levels, then gold has come off a little bit here just in the last 20 minutes or so really as the UK. European traders have come in just getting rejected off a higher around 1966. On a longer timeframe chart though, to add a bit of perspective, obviously the weakening dollar has been the main assisting factor for helping support gold appreciate very sharply last week post the US election. And really these are key levels and looking at, I mean, gold trade such a big range at the moment. I think it's worth just isolating these more significant levels further out. And on that point, I would say that the October, mid-October high in the retest we had on the 21st and the area which when broke, we saw an acceleration of a good $20 for a pullback to the same kind of spot last week and around the sixth. And so that's a pretty good area of support on the downside I think to kind of act as a framework for the price going forward in the coming sessions and consequently on the upside, you've got to go really all the way back to where we were trading back on the 16th of September, which is when we were up around 1983. So medium term over the coming days, kind of looking at a range of around the 36, 38 zone of support up to around 83 on the upside. But that's going to be price direction which will be dictated by movement in the US dollar. All right, quick look then at a few different things. First of all, in the overnight session, just to get you up to speed, we do have some trade data coming out of China at the weekend, their trade balance coming in higher than expected, 58.44 billion against expected, 46 exports, top estimates, 11.4% year on year against 9.3% expected, but imports disappointed, 4.7 against 9.5. Overall, I wouldn't really say other than me just saying this for you to be aware of, it doesn't need to be factored in beyond that point. Chinese data at this point in time is kind of being superseded by just other factors at play which is the general market direction derived from the post-election kind of atmosphere at the moment. Having a look then at Joe Biden, just going back here to what we can expect. So, Biden plans to name a 12-member coronavirus task force on Monday. He'll also reach out to Republicans and Democrats in Congress to discuss a new relief package with one Biden ally calling on Trump to support one before Biden is sworn in on January 20th. Yeah, all I can say is good luck with that, trying to get Trump to agree with you on a new relief package at this point in time. Obviously, any ongoing legal disputes coming of the way of President Trump are of little significance, I think, to either the outcome of the election. I just saw a tweet this morning that betting markets are still putting around a 6% to 9% probability of Trump winning. This is irrespective of the fact that it's already been formally announced that Biden has won. I guess the betting market giving some opportunity for a punt that perhaps then these legal disputes tend to mount to something more credible but I would say that there's very little chance of that happening, if none. Overall then, I think market sensitivity to Trump making all of these noises is pretty much insignificant for what you should be looking at from a day to day perspective. Few other things then, looking at this, what we can expect then going forward is a little bit more commentary perhaps on the COVID situation in America. And as I said, Biden today is gonna plan to roll out 12 member coronavirus task force as soon as today. And this is very important because this is looking at new reported cases in the US and the US has reported some 131,420 COVID new cases as of Saturday as reported over 100,000 infections five times in the past week. Florida reported the most daily cases since August just over six and a half thousand. However, it's worth noting that that Sun Belt region was hit before, if you remember in the midst of the summer and the current number just shy of 7,000 is still much lower than the 15,000 peak that we saw back then a few months ago. US deaths, so this is this graphic here, they remained at more than 1,000 for a fifth day, a streak that hasn't been seen since last August, which is around that Sun Belt breakout that we had. So overall, obviously the death count at 1,000 and consistently remaining at that point is definitely not a good thing. However, where we were, we were north of 2,000 in the peak of the initial first wave. So when it comes to really the most impactful things for markets, definitely, Goldman's were talking about this as well in the research note of the weekend probably vaccine news. Now the elections out of the way will start to gain a little bit more kind of focus overall, just given we're coming in towards timing towards end of the year and people hopeful of timings around the Q1, Q2 and what the state of play is on that side of things. So continue to monitor anything in regards to headline vaccine news. And then the other thing is about any impending lockdown of what Biden might look to kind of in force going forward. Now he has said before, if you remember, that he will kind of lean on scientific advice to be the guide and many people thought that was a sign then that he would lock the entire country down, whether that is or is not the case. I'd say this death count in step as well with hospitalization rates across some of the key areas particularly in the Midwest at the moment is going to be quite key to monitor about how close that we might get in order to seeing more statewide lockdowns taking place. At the moment on a national level, as you can see here that if you remember there was some reversing of the current reopening that was happening during May, June time when we hit that Sun Belt peak, but there was not a full national lockdown like what we saw in April, May. And of course this is important because this will impede obviously the more restricted the measures, the inability for the ability for the US economy to continue to kind of progressively recover. And so definitely that's a key narrative to keep an eye on going forward for sure. Quick look elsewhere, Brexit, very big week for Brexit in fact because Britain, European Union have until basically Sunday of this week to try yet again to hammer out a Brexit trade deal. Michelle Barnier, the European negotiator has said at the weekend has warned of very serious divergences. This is letter Dominic Rabb as per the headlines here. He's been commenting that Boris Johnson's government has reassured Biden's team that the UK has no intention of imperiling Ireland's peace process and good Friday agreement. And he said, hope for the trade agreement could be struck with the EU this week, though he reiterated key differences remain on those sticking points of regulations and fisheries. So, you know, why is Rabb commenting on Biden? Well, this was something that was talked about and things like the FT last week is that a Biden presidency puts a slightly different complexion on things because it's very important for the UK to be able to cut a deal with the US and obviously Boris has gone out of his way to try and form a fairly close relationship with President Trump. However, completely different kettle of fish when it comes to Joe Biden who tends to be more sympathetic with the Irish and therefore as a net consequence, jeopardizing the good Friday agreement or installing any type of form of physical barrier on the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland would be a no-no in terms of the US then entertaining a trade deal with the UK separately as well. Biden has said that according to sources close to his team that really striking a trade deal with the UK is really low on the agenda overall and probably understandably so for the US in the form of just tackling things like coronavirus and a stimulus bill at this point in time. So, they're probably not the most favorable for the UK situation overall but that doesn't mean that I'd necessarily have a bearish opinion about cable this week because at the moment it's still being overrided by the fact that dollar weakness is helping elevate the pair more than anything irrespective of the growing risk perhaps of a no-deal type of price scenario increasing over time. The other thing to be aware of with Brexit and headlines this week is the internal market bill. It is set to be overturned in a series of votes in the upper house of Lords today. The government is expected to fight to keep the provisions when the legislation returns then to the lower house of Commons. So the way it kind of works is the Commons make a decision on the internal market bill, they pass it, it goes up to the Lords, they then make amendments, it goes back to the Commons, so on and so forth. So quite interesting because this particular piece of legislation of course is what really got the backs up of European officials and we just so happen to be going into these crucial talks while all of this is happening domestically. So definitely Brexit headlines will probably be back in the forefront again of the national press. In summary overall, there is this deadline looming on Sunday the 15th and a lot of that is to do with given enough time to be ratified in both UK Parliament but also in Brussels for the end of transition on December 31st. But personally I think will a strike a trade deal this week? I think on the balance no, do I think there will get a deal done to avoid a no deal at the end of the year? Yes, I just think that there's still a little bit of time on the clock to play with as far as the negotiation is concerned, despite the kind of deadline nature of being ratified I think at the end of the day if they can cover deal closer towards the end of the year there's always time for it to be ratified with a kind of a grace period if you wanna call it that. So yeah, I'm not too hopeful about that. They're breaking the deadlock if you like on some of these key issues but I'm sure there'll be some headway made towards the compromise. I guess the thing to look out for from a trading point of view is if they don't and we start getting towards Friday's session you might see a little bit of weight come in from a sterling fundamental it's probably gonna increase from a certain point of view and the other thing to look out for is perhaps we get kind of this breakthrough type of source commentary. The market rallies, sterling positive but also the context of a week of dollar then it gets refuted and we come back down. So these are the sorts of things that you could anticipate throughout the week in regards to Brexit. One final thing I just wanted to mention was the RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The only reason for this is we do have an interest rate meeting coming up and their governor is expected to lay out plans on Wednesday, I believe it is happening to provide cheap loans to banks giving them scope for further or to further reduce lending rates. The Funding for Lending program otherwise gonna be called the FLP could begin within weeks and they're seeing as a key step toward the Reserve Bank cutting their official cash rates and negative territory next year according to several analysts. Their interest rate currently stands at 0.25% in their QE program at 100 billion Aussie QE dollars. The actual policies themselves on rates and QE is expected to be unchanged but the rolling out of FLP then is seen as the next progressive step towards if required then negative rates coming in the future into 2021. So worth keeping an eye on that in the overnight session midweek. Taking a look then at the calendar, what have we got? Well, the week starts off fairly quiet from a data point of view. A couple of speakers though to be mindful of and in fact the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks several times this week but himself and Chief Economist Andy Haldane are talking today and it's always quite interesting when these chaps talk, 1035 for Bailey two o'clock in the afternoon for Haldane just given a lot of the focus on the BOE of late of negative rates. I would say sensitivity to that discussion maybe lessened a touch just given the close proximity of the latest BOE meeting where of course they expanded their QE program by something more than expected, 150 billion. I'd say the rate, negative rate talk then is kind of on the table but a little further down the road just seeing how this plays out with this current lockdown that we're experiencing COVID case rises that are apparent in the UK at the moment. So not expecting a great deal but again worth keeping an eye out or an ear open for those speeches but otherwise pretty quiet today. Tuesday then we do get quite a few UK data pieces actually coming out. So labor data comes out in the UK on Tuesday as you can see here then we then get preliminary Q3 GDP numbers in the UK on Thursday. In terms of the jobs data there has seen a methodology change to the labor force survey by the ONS to correct for lower response rates of renting households during the pandemic which has resulted in more of an uptrend in unemployment this year. So that's something to be aware of with reducing quite high numbers but overall not something that I think generally is going to move the market a great deal. For GDP it is expected to mark the biggest rebound on record but again I don't really think that your GDP data looking back to a previous period I think pal's insignificant to what investors are looking at which is what does Q4 look like particularly given the fact of the COVID case rising resulting in the current lockdown that we're in now just taking us all the way through December as well. So I don't really think the GDP data in particular is that important for the UK albeit it will probably make some headlines in the press and I don't think the jobs data either particularly carries too much weight. So that's really the main factors coming out on Tuesday. You also get the German ZDW survey which is always something that people look at kind of secondary to IFO because rather than companies this is economists and analysts forward looking expectations but anything forward looking is obviously quite interesting it's given also Germany is experiencing its own COVID surge at the moment and restrictions. Wednesday the RBNZ as I said otherwise not a great deal going on and in Thursday we get the GDP number out of the UK but we also get US CPI. Again US CPI obviously an important number in more traditional terms but largely uninteresting with little wage pressure at the moment with unemployment still very high generally speaking in the US and so I don't really think that really changes the narrative at all for the Fed having heard for them just last week and then Friday you get Eurozone GDP preliminary for the third quarter kind of similar case I guess to what we've just described in the UK and then you get the Bank of England governor speaking again. From a speaker's point of view Christine Lagarde will give an introductory speech on Wednesday at a two day ECB forum on central banking should also take part on a policy panel Thursday with US Fed chair Powell and Bank of England governor Bailey. So perhaps of all of them given we've already heard from Bailey and Powell a lot last week perhaps Christine Lagarde could be an interesting one to watch given the context of how high we are and technically the prospect of potentially more Euro strength on the cards if we breach those levels in tandem with the continuation of the weaker dollar should be one to look out for in terms of trying to counteract that strength which we've seen before with their concern about a particularly strong Euro. So my overall summary here is the calendar is pretty quiet this week there's not really a great deal of major releases if there are like the GDP numbers or ZDW or the labor market they to come out the UK they're kind of shadowed just by other macro issues that are ongoing. So overall the continuation of the theme at the market open over the Biden victory so it's still keeping on those tech names to probably drive markets and all time highs in close proximity in those US indices oils kind of supported by a similar type of mentality in that way from overall demand perspective similar with the dollar today so quite interested when the US come in we're at some key downside support levels does that propel those currency pairs higher once again Brexit back in the spotlight I think a great deal is going to come out but some risk of some headline noise as the week progresses and we close in on that more soft deadline at the end of the week and then COVID-19 we continue to track particularly in the US in any response from this coronavirus team about the subsequent plans that might materialize when Biden does come into power about how he tends to deal with that and the implications for the US economy. All right, that is it. Any questions at all, feel free to get in touch just leave a comment and have a great week ahead. All right, I'll see you tomorrow.