 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, happy Monday everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly wrap up show. So after the worst performing month in the last 20 years on the S&P, at the end of the third quarter with a lot of frowns going into the weekend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average today was definitely, you know, definitely the leader, right? Definitely the leader, big rally, 700 plus points, everything was great, right? There's two problems, right? The two problems are, we've seen this before, okay? We've seen this before, you know, rising above its ashes to, you know, to reclaim the throne, all that good stuff, right? We've seen this before. We saw this two days ago, well, three days ago, after we had a really, really big rally, they reclaimed the five day moving average only to give back the whole day and then Friday completely implode taking out the whole channel in itself. And today we kind of did the same thing, right? So we had a big rally, Dow up 700 and something points. The Nasdaq, I guess you could call it a rally, right? We were up 200 points on the Nasdaq. Okay, cool, cool, cool. How is it our point, right? From our point of view, if you're a trader on a day-to-day basis, how are we supposed to get excited about today's session, right? We had the opportunity three days ago. If you guys remember, if you guys remember the video from three days ago, I said was everything's literally on watch and I may actually made a joke about it. I go, there's 765 stocks on watch going to tomorrow's session. I narrowed it down to 765 stocks because I don't want to get distracted by the noise. I was joking, right? Obviously it was joking. This was three days ago and the next day the market failed. So we rallied again today, right? We rallied again today after just a massive sell-off. We hit the 10-day moving average on the Dow Jones, right? If you look at the S&P 500, I'll use the spy as a proxy. We got rejected off the 10-day moving the average off the spies. And if you look at the Qs, the Qs just didn't even take out Friday's highs. So again, I'm not a bull. I'm not a bear. I'm a realist. I'm an opportunist, right? In fact, and we'll get to the pivots in a second. In fact, the most basic rule of trading and technical analysis, and again, if you've been watching these videos, for a while, this isn't the first time you hear me say this. But for an order of stock to go higher, not to be up on the day, but for a stock to go higher, it has to take out and build above its previous days high. If a stock to go lower, it needs to get below the previous day low and build below their prices. And if you look at a lot of names, they didn't do that, right? You look at the leaders. For example, Apple, right? Apple didn't take out the previous days high. If you look at the Qs, look where the Qs stopped. The Qs stopped at Friday's highs. When you look at names, for example, like Amazon, right? If you look at Amazon, again, I'm just going through the leaders, right? Amazon stopped right. Look at Friday's high, right? Friday's high was $1692. Today's high was $1691. Tell me technical analysis is not cool, right? But my point is, you know, if this was three, four days ago, at least, you know, I went into the next day. I'm like, okay, we're going to give the bulls every opportunity to succeed. I'm excited for the bull side. Hell, again, you know, I'm not a bear. I'd love to buy some stocks, but I'd like to buy some stocks technically. And when you look at today's session, it felt like there were, even the stocks were moving high. And you could see there's a lot of strength in the market. But even when you look at technology today and you saw how the stocks were moving, it really did look like kind of pushing a piano up a hill. Okay? It's like almost sitting in the corner and your mom always tells you, watch out for that weird uncle of yours. You're like this kind of, you know, looking at sideways to make sure that, you know, the guy's not doing anything crazy. And that's at least what it felt like to me. Okay? I took some, I took some scalps to the downside. Again, we'll talk about the pivots in a second. But what I did take about today's session was it was very, very, it felt very forced. I don't know if a lot of guys will feel that way, but it felt very, very forced. Again, if you look at a lot of names, they did very, very well. But when you look at a lot of names where they stopped, right? Think about it, you need space for the market to run. It stopped at the top of the range. You look at Apple, it stopped at the top of the range. Right? Again, granted, it's close to busting out. Q stopped at the top of the range. So I want to, again, let's kind of, let's kind of just take what we were three days ago and fast forward it into tonight's session. I want to give the bulls the benefit of the outfit tomorrow. I do. I actually have some longs that I'm watching tomorrow, but I also have some shorts that I'm watching tomorrow. Because again, how many times can we get disappointed by more than a one day wonder, right? More than a one minute man. Pretty obvious. Alley up to myself. That's what she said. Right? But my point is we've seen this movie before. We've seen what happens the next day. And a lot of people that are walking into the next day's surprise that the market fails, they're kind of like, you know, looking at the market like, you know, the market has 12 heads. The only way you could really capitalize on the full move today in the market, you would have had to be long overnight, like literally get long on Friday's close. But after the market closes, after the numbers that they put up on the scoreboard, I mean, you would have had to be on some tremendous pills to do so. So it was a very, very, it felt like to me, like I said before, it felt like a very forced day. We got a rally, right? We got a rally. They posted a very, very impressive number on the board, right? 765 on the Dow Jones, 200 on the NASDAQ. Okay. All right, let's see what happens. Again, we've been here before. It's like being in a relationship that your significant other, they just cheated on you, right? They cheated on you here. They're all the next day to disappoint you. And now the significant other is telling you, I promise I'll never do it again. I'll never do it again. I swear I'll never do it again. And you forgive them again. Okay, we'll see, right? So going into tomorrow, okay, I'm going to give the bulls the benefit of the Dow for the first 30, 40 minutes, maybe an hour, right? But hell, I am ready for what happens if we do fail today's channel and start moving downwards. And that's kind of where we are right now. If you look at the overall thesis of this bear market, bear market cycle, since the day we lost that big, big move down on the CPI, that's what it's been. It's been down, down, down, up, down, down, up, down, down, up to be determined for tomorrow's session. So the one thing that I did see today that I didn't see today, as long as a number of stocks, a number of leaders didn't take out the previous day's channel, which is super duper important for rally. But what I didn't see today, what you usually do see when you have a multi-day situation that you potentially could have a couple of days in a row of rallying, we really didn't see any option, you know, we really didn't see any option exploration short-term contracts to expire. We didn't really see anything. We really didn't see any deep out of the money calls that expired on Friday, right? Like I saw today, you know, they came for the 16th or the 17th on Amazon. Okay, that's where we are right now, right? 16th, 17th, they came for the 40 ones on Microsoft. Okay, that's where we are now. So it's very, very tough for me to get excited. But again, this is why we take the necessary preparation to make sure the next day, right? We're thinking logically. We're not disappointed. We don't have any expectations, right? I did have some strong expectations right here on September the 28th, which we didn't follow through. But again, I've learned my lesson from the cheating spouse. Maybe they'll do it again. Maybe I could forgive them. We could take this relationship to the next level. But my point is, again, we already have a history of disappointment. We have a history of failure. So why put yourself in a situation going into tomorrow saying to yourself, well, here's what I expect. No expectations equals no disappointments. Be level-headed. Have a game plan from both sides of the market. And let the market dictate to the next level where we're going to go next. So again, for me, it's pretty simple here. Look, you see the high from Friday, right? The high from Friday is $275.19, right? Everybody see that? You see the high from today, $275.16, right? You think that's a random number stop? Again, technical analysis is freaking cool. Just the same way Amazon stopped, right? Amazon stopped at Friday's high, right? Friday's high was $1,692. Today's high was $1,691. So it's pretty basic stuff, man. You know, look, if the market's going to rally, if the queue's going to rally, we're going to need to get above this $275.20 and start building for a push to $277. And again, it's not the bottom of the market. Nobody's calling for a bottom. But if the market is going to rally, don't we at least need to take out Friday's highs and today's highs and start building? So if it does build, we could get a move in the queues to $277. If Amazon, for example, you know, if Amazon starts getting above this channel here, why can't we get a move to $18.70 and ultimately $21 if there's going to be a multi-day rally? But there is a flip side to that as well. And that flip side, for example, is Tesla. For all you guys who've been watching this broadcast for the last couple of weeks, there's two things we kept on talking about over and over and over again. How the institutional money flow was betting, right? Was absolutely betting against the AI day and against the delivery day, right? Over and over and over. It didn't make a difference what the market was. They were coming for the $265 puts. They were coming for the $260 puts. And notably, we talked about the November expiration. They came for the $244 puts because nobody believed in, or at least nobody believed in the directional bias that Tesla was even moving, even when it attempted to bounce. And they started even buying those contracts into strength. And it was very, very important. And over the weekend, if you saw the AI event on Friday, you know, I chuckled a little bit. You know, again, I love Tesla. I traded long. I traded short. I love Tesla. I have no ill will feel about it. But when you saw that demonstration about AI, I guess it was cool. You know, it also was kind of cool when like three grown men trying to hold up the robot. So it didn't fall over. So I chuckled to that. And then on, you know, I knew right away, you know, it was going to be, there was a shot. This thing could be a really, really good setup. And then later on Sunday, they came out with the deliveries, right? And they had some good numbers. The problem is they missed it by X amount of cars. And obviously that was going to be a big no-no. The question for me today was how much was it going to be down? How much room were we going to have? Congratulations. I know a good handful of you guys had Tesla puts over the weekend. Unfortunately, I did not have a position over the weekend on the short side of Tesla, which sucked and basically left me with scalp mode into the day. And, you know, fortunately, we got a couple of scalps on it, but nothing, if it would have opened up in the day. And I've been talking about this for like two, three days. I even talked about it on the weekend video. I go, man, this thing could have just opened a green. This one had been such a great trade below this 261 channel. But again, it's disappointment, right? Sometimes you get disappointments such as life again and get used to it. So we were left with basically scalps, right? And, you know, my whole pre-market prep was literally to the downside. I don't think we had one pivot to the upside, but that's okay, right? That's okay because that's where the value was. The most ironic part today, all the value was to the downside. If you look at Amazon, I still like this thing got down to this level here. It didn't just kind of stalled out. NVIDIA never got here. Abbey never got here. ADM never got here. Pepsi stopped exactly at 163. 165 was a nice move on Friday. Clock never got below 302. So I'm just sitting there, sitting there, sitting there, sitting there, Kellogg. And here came Tesla, right? So Tesla, again, and I say this all the time. When you're a brand new trader, you think every trade is then in the world. Every trade needs to be huge. Every trade needs to be huge. You like every trade to be huge, but it doesn't need to be huge. And that's the whole point of it's called manufacturer run. So here's the game plan, right? 250, a gap down like 12, 13 points pre-market. 1250, 60 minute support. If it builds below, can test the pre-market lows, which were 248. And if measure potential could be to 238, blah, blah, blah, blah. If there's an upside, we'll watch the 10 o'clock. There was no upside. So Tesla cracks. Tesla took out this 250 level. You know, let me show you really quickly. Tesla took out this 250 level, you know, went to like 46 and changed, and then rallied, and then came back a little bit and didn't rally a lot. But the point is it rallied a little bit, ultimately set, you know, set lows of the day of 241. Big move. But again, I had two separate scalps on this thing, one on a sneaky, sneaky pivot off this 40, 44 level. The first one was off this 48 and change level to the 46, but it wasn't even close. Again, it could have been below the daily channel versus the reality of what it was off a couple of scalps off different pivots throughout the day, not even close, but again, it is what it is. Sometimes you just don't get what you want. Doc, you never got down to 51. Snow was actually pretty good, right? Snow was actually, again, it's so ironic. But again, all the value was to the downside just because at least in the beginning of the day, nothing was taking out the highs. Nothing was taking out the previous day's highs. Again, we have no choice. You can't buy stock in anticipation of taking out the previous day high. It doesn't work that way. So, snow was actually pretty good. There was a couple of bucks on this thing really quickly. 64 and a quarter for builds below can flush. Here was snow and obviously reversed like everything else, but this was a nice little move here. Here was the, look at the move here, right? It took out the 64, excuse me, right here. It took out the 64 and a quarter. I'm sorry, right here. It took out the 64 and a quarter. That was also the daily low, right? It took out the 61 and change very, very quickly, very, very fast that you could see here. That was the daily chart. That's where it got the 64 and a quarter. And that's it. So, going into tomorrow, again, cues got rejected, excuse me, got rejected on Friday's highs. Obviously, they need to reclaim. Spies and the diamonds got rejected off the 10-day moving average. They obviously have to reclaim. So, going into tomorrow, my thinking is, all right, look, you cheated on us once. We forgive you, right? See, can we continue to forgive you and prolong this relationship or are you going to disappoint us again? Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great, wonderful Monday. Have a great, wonderful Tuesday. And I'll see you tomorrow night for another episode. Take care.