 Okay, so let's go ahead and get started. Max, you're okay? Excellent. Thanks very much. I appreciate the professionalism of the forum and the team from Swiss TV, because they're extremely efficient. We have some of those in the back of the door if you want to come in and sit down. Even if you're in security, you don't have to stand for the next hour. I don't think the deputy prime ministers want the security guys with very sore legs later. Is that right? They're independent, he said. Okay, very good. Okay, these are not the best of times, I would suggest right now in 2015, but obviously they're not the worst of times as well. But I think it's fair to say they are harder times to grow, and hence the title of our program today, Growing in Harder Times in 2015. A bit of irony here, the United States is growing quite handsomely, probably three and a half to 4% in 2015, but this is the economy that sparked the global financial crisis back in 2008 and 2009. The Eurozone's gonna be lucky to grow one to 1.2%, but at least we know at this stage what the European Central Bank has plans for. It's pulled out a pretty good size bazooka, better than a trillion dollars over an 18 month period to try to boost growth in Europe. Big debate, of course, with Germany suggesting that austerity and discipline and reforms should continue to go forward. We'll see how that plays out. This weekend we have the Greek election, of course. We could have the Grexit, depending on which way the voters go, and whether the Greeks can participate in that program or not, depending on the progression of the European Union IMF ECB bailout plan that's on the table. So what does this mean about the engines of global growth? We often talk about the emerging markets being the engines of global growth. They're struggling a little bit. China was growing 7.4% last year. That would be the envy of the world for everybody else, I would think, but there's concerns that it will surrender 7% this year, but let's take a look at a video report that outlines the IMF forecast for 2015 and we'll pick up our discussion thereafter. Please go ahead and roll the video. The United States, the country that many say was the spark behind the 2008 global financial crisis, is now moving full steam ahead. Unemployment is below 6%, growth hovering around 4%. The largest emerging market, China, is growing at the slowest pace of nearly a quarter century. But President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Khe Gang seem determined to try and defend 7% growth. But the real question marks for 2015 are not the world's number one and two-sized economies, but global risks linked to the collapse of oil prices and potential deflation. Yemen, Libya, and Iraq remain tension-filled hotspots and will fuel the strain of a drop in revenues as will Nigeria and, of course, Russia as one of the world's top three energy producers. This is a look through the IMF's 2015 crystal ball, global growth of 3.5% down from 3.8% last October. China to expand 6.8% and slightly less next year. Russia to contract by 3%, a steep revision from last October. Nigeria 4.8%, 2.5% below the autumn forecast. Mexico is expected to grow just above 3% and Turkey at 3%. The one caveat here, the IMF has been traditionally optimistic and as a result has had to ratchet down forecasts and many believe that may be the case later this year. So that gives us a very good indication of where we are in January 2015. Of course, the reason we wanted to talk about the political risks thereafter is because this could all be thrown off by very sudden or shocking events. But let's start with the Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey, a 3% forecast with what the European Union has decided to do with stimulus here. Could you surpass that number in 2015? Well, I think it's a reality which we have to see that last 10 years versus next 10 years, it will be a different era for emerging markets. The average growth rates will go down compared to last 10 years. But the lower growth rates are even going to be still higher than the growth rates of the developed countries. So when we talk about lower growth rate for Turkey or for China or other countries, these will be still on average much higher than the developed world. For Turkey specific, the lower oil prices and the measures that we are taking to diversify our export markets have been working very well. Maybe European markets are not performing well but our exports to Africa, to Asia, Latin America is growing very fast. We had only 12 embassies in Africa in 2008. Today we have 39 embassies. Turkish airlines fly to more than 40 destinations and the trade is growing. So in a way, time-divertification of markets and time-divertification of the product range helps a lot in these kind of times. Deputy Prime Minister Shuvala, this is probably one of the most difficult years for President Vladimir Putin and the Russian economy. Sanctions are in place. We're looking at potentially, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a contraction of nearly 5%. The IMF puts it at 3%. How do you navigate very choppy waters with the political situation you're faced with, with the European Union and the United States? But that's not the first time. If we recall different crises in my country, these may be, I recall the fourth one. And in 2007, the oil price dropped again dramatically and we survived and two years later, we felt much stronger. This time again, the forecasts are different. This forecast is possible. This is possible scenario. But at the same time, we have maybe a scenario where we will be around zero. It means the economy is freezing. The half of our oil incomes will disappear. But at the same time, we understand there's a structural need to perform something else and to find new markets for our expo goods, which was not the agenda for Russians before because it was money and coming from setting oil and gas. So this is another challenge, but I think we will go. As you know, this has been talking of reform for a decade in Russia and the discussion to look for other markets and tilt to the East. The reality is, this government got a little bit spoiled by $100 oil and that first called the reforms. I have to admit, you're right. We were spoiled by these numbers and people were just expecting new numbers of public expenditures. And people were, they were not motivated to work harder to provide labor productivity, but now this is the case where we will do this because we are forced. Maurice Levy, you have a very good finger on the pulse of global growth as the CEO of one of the largest advertising firms in the world. But I wanted to get your thoughts on the European Central Bank's actions here on the quantitative easing. Will it provide finally the stimulus, even though it's six years late or six years after the US Federal Reserve? President Draghi is going a little bit beyond the mandate and that is the reason why it has taken so long to come to that kind of stimulus. And it will act as a stimulus. What I would be very much worried about is that leaders believe that this will be enough and that they should not go through the reform program that we have absolutely to implement in some countries, including mine. So it is extremely important to see that as something which is relaxing a little bit the economy and easing the balance sheet of the banks and not the final solution to the austerity and to believe that all our issues are behind us. No, the issues are still there and we have to go through a very serious reform program particularly in the southern part of Europe. I find it fascinating that people start to panic about China when it's, you know, hovers at 7.4%. It's a big tanker ship you have to move, of course. But President Xi and Premier Li and we heard him here at the World Economic Forum believe they can defend at 7%. Bo Chengling, do you think it's gonna be 7% or higher? We should be happy about a softer landing for China? I believe that they'll be still higher than 7%. The IMF estimate is a bit low. The reason for that is very simple. Urbanization is continuing. And Chinese savings is extremely high and those are real money and inflation is low. So if China, the Chinese government just spend a little bit, it will be 7%. Having said that, I think that's the difficulties. The difficulty here is that we get used to 10% growth. Now with the 7, 7.4%, you still really need to go through the reform structure changes and others to really address that 3% difference associated with the socioeconomic problems. So in China, you still have to work hard. But I believe that 7%, above 7% is achievable. You're not concerned about the social unrest because it's not reaching beyond the major, large cities of China yet. The wealth is not trickling outside the major hubs of manufacturing and finance. Precisely, not yet. I think that the growth will continue even though that, for example, like housing, we've got a problem with the housing market. But then there are tremendous infrastructure need to be built in other, you know, the second tier, third tier cities. So I think that the growth momentum is still there. Amelia Lozoya of Pemex, you're neighboring Mexico, of course, to the United States. The U.S. is growing like great gangbusters after all that quantitative easing. But we're not seeing the growth that we saw in Mexico three years ago, not the 4%, not to march to 5%. What's hurting Mexico right now from popping above that level? Well, indeed, 2015 is a complex scenario for the world economy. And what is Mexico doing in this context? We're committed to fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability, as we have done in the last 20 years. We expect growth a little bit higher than the IMF is predicting in the range of three and a half to 3.9%. Despite low oil prices, but I think paradoxically, low oil prices, people believe is gonna have a higher impact on Mexico's GDP. GDP related to oil has been less than 8% for the last years. So actually we will benefit more from a stronger economy. The numbers are encouraging. In 2014, October year-to-year figures are 8% increase exports of automobiles to the United States, 20% increase in manufacturing exports to the U.S., which is 80% of our trade. And the economy created 950,000 jobs in 2014. So the numbers are good. It could be better if we had better oil prices, but the economy is moving. Mexico is fully committed also to implementing the 11 structural reforms that were approved. We've done the first part, which is to approve them through the legislation, but now we have to implement them. And that's the encouraging part. I think 2015 is going to be a good year for Mexico, despite the risks out there that you have clearly mentioned. The African Renaissance, we're all excited in Davos 2014 about Africa finally getting its opportunity in the global spotlight. I thought it fascinating, Patrice Mosepe, that Nigeria is seeing one of the sharpest downgrades of growth for 2015, negative 2.5% off of the top line number of last year and the projecting growth of just 4.8% for Nigeria. South Africa is struggling to get above 1.5%. What's holding back Africa? Still too dependent on commodities in your view? Well, currently there's approximately 750 million mobile users in Africa, double the size of the United States. Over the past year, approximately 80 billion US dollars was spent on infrastructure. Nigeria and Gola and those countries, Equatorial Guinea-Gobon that were primarily oil producing countries in the past have, it's quite impressive that they've built some foreign reserves. I think Nigeria's got approximately 20 billion US foreign reserve and Gola's got about 15 to 17 billion US dollars foreign reserve. And of course we have been impacted by the decrease in precious metals, copper and the oars, but those traditional commodity sectors of the economy are now being replaced by financial services, telecommunications, retail, and manufacturing industries growing and that continues to give us confidence for the future. It seems like Africa, ironically, because China was investing into Africa and had this FDI, but Africa is very dependent on Chinese growth for exports, for your company in particular. Are you concerned about the Chinese slowdown and the demand for your products at the stage? You know, it's interesting. 15% of the current trade that Sub-Saharan Africa is conducting is with China. Let me give you a few numbers. Africa's trade with Europe is in excess of 400 billion US. Africa's trade with China is in excess of 200 billion US. So the EU collectively is still a significant in a huge trading partner of Africa. Of course, China is the single largest economy that trades with Africa. It will, China's growth will indeed have an impact, but it's also important that, you know, Africa's trading with India, it's trading with Brazil, it's trading with Russia, it's trading with various other emerging economies. And America's growth is a very positive development for Africa. What is lacking in Africa, Shri Mosepi, though, is that infrastructure spending that needs to come in to provide the efficiency for investors coming from the outside, have those goods go to market faster and not be so reliant on commodities. After all, 60% of the exports are still reliant on oil in Africa, which is a surprising number. Very important. Africa's economies historically have been geared towards the export of commodities to historically to the European markets. The intra-African trade hasn't been as significant as it can be. Over the last five to 10 years, there's been significant growth. Last year alone, in excess of 20 billion dollars was spent on infrastructure in Africa by the private sector, both private sector from outside Africa and private sector from the continent. So the infrastructure is very important. And lots of the governments are spending more money on education, provision of skills. There's a middle class that's coming up. And that middle class, more educated, more in touch with the rest of the world, provides an exciting market for intra-African trade as well as for growth of the domestic economies. I want to take a look at the connection between politics and economics and how it filters in to growth and opportunity for societies. Let's start with Turkey. We have a very powerful president evolving that role as an executive president. Some would suggest that President Erdogan has too tight a grip on power and is not as free Turkey as it was before. Too much concentration. In fact, there was worries that you would keep your job and the international investors love having you in that role as the DPM in charge of economic policy. What's the answer to that? What's the real answer, Deputy Prime Minister? First of all, Turkey is a democracy. And the quality of our democracy has been going up and up. We have elections this year. We had two elections last year. Local elections and then presidential elections. And now general elections are coming up. So our democracy is being tested over and over again. And we are asking over and over again, our people, what do you like? What kind of a government you would like to see? And it seems like our people likes our government and they like us just to continue. And the thing is that the democracy is also very important to go with rule of law and good practice of human rights and freedoms. And as a country, if I can interject here, this is a president, even as Prime Minister, a severe crackdown on the media, severe restraint on the judiciary bodies. Anytime there's an investigation against the government, he intervenes, let's be candid here. And that doesn't seem to be the character of a democracy. Well, Turkey has a very strong external anchor when we talk about the quality of our democracy or when we look at our practice of freedoms, rule of law and so forth. And that is the European Union process. So our democracy is being assessed continuously from outside by the European Commission and the European Parliament. And in that way, we are able to judge ourselves, the performance and do whatever we can to improve in all the senses. But most of the problematic areas which you are mentioning has a lot to do also the transition period that we have been going through, the very peculiar domestic set of political events that we have went through. But I can easily say that we have right now more than 400 TV channels, 1100 radio channels and the very vivid media. And out of the first five newspapers in Turkey, actually you will see there's only one pro-government newspaper. And the others are whether more, let's say, objective or less so on and so forth. So I think that the perception versus what is really going on ground, that is a discrepancy. And that discrepancy could be probably corrected. But even for the media that you have been referring to, the fact that this is private sector, the fact that there are so many different companies and so many different internet media also, which is just booming in the country. And being such an open country and an open democracy, it is not really easy to control everything. Maybe it's not good to try to control everything anyway. Like shutting down YouTube or Twitter. Well, that had some security issues as you know. The reason why we had to do it was because of the very, very confidential and top secret recordings of our security meetings were leaked into YouTube. And because of the very severe security threat, we had to do it on a very short while. But then we passed a law through our parliament to give that authority mostly to our courts to do what is necessary and whenever is necessary. Maurice Levin, when you look at different emerging markets, because you play all around the world as a businessman, what are the top three priorities when you tick the boxes to say, I'm willing to put publicese funds to play here? And I know it's higher risk, but I get higher rewards if the growth is there. The most interesting emerging market today is United States of America. When you look at the rate of growth, the morale of the consumers, the morale of the CEOs, you believe that yes, you can invest. But when you look at the emerging market more seriously, you cannot look at this as a block. Each country is different and each country has its own history and the idea of the bricks or the MISAT is something which is no longer valid. So definitely China, we have to invest and we have to continue to invest in China. This is something which is extremely important, not only because of the size of the market, but also because of the prospects for the future, even if they are going through a bump and there is some issues that it's 6.8 or 6.5 compared to 7.4, it's not a big problem because at the point in time, I think being at 7 would be quite a good outcome compared to some other countries. We like very much Mexico because of the proximity with the US and the way Mexico has changed the policy recently and we believe that Mexico is a good bet for us. Turkey is a very interesting country. I'm always leery when somebody says interesting because it's like a paragraph there going, I'm interested but there are not. No, no, no, it's... OK, you want me to be more positive, I would be more positive. That wasn't what I was getting at. It would be a much more interesting country as if they were using our services. OK, but in Turkey, there is a lot of possibility because there is something which is quite interesting. There is a lot of entrepreneurs and that is something which is building the future. Entrepreneurs are the one who are building from this relatively small company, something which will become big and we believe this will be extremely interesting. We have sorry to say that, a little bit of concern regarding Russia, not so much. Speak of the oil. You are still very good. We are investing in Russia but we believe that we have to see how things will be settled, not only regarding the issue with Ukraine but also what will happen to the Robles and how the economy will be taking off. So, this is just a small picture. There are some other countries which are extremely interesting but I would like to move to Europe because Europe is probably a good bet for the future. Europe is at a very low level of growth and there is a lot of opportunity to invest in Europe and they think that there will be a point where we will see the inversion and finally Europe will take off and the day Europe will take off it's much better to have a much stronger position in those countries. OK, very good. I want to bring up the second topic here and that is the falling price of oil since June of last year, $115 a barrel down to below 50 today. Very key topics. It influences the different economies around the arc here in a very different way. Let's start with the passing of King Abdullah and the strategy of Saudi Arabia and Mr. Lin, I think it would be a good place to start us with China. I mean, this is a strategy here from Saudi Arabia. What influence will the passing of King Abdullah have on that policy and how has the energy scenario changed the outlook for China's growth? We really hope that it will not change the strategy at this moment. The low oil price is really good for China in several aspects. For one thing that if the current oil price of 40, 50, continue for another six months, China will save about 100 billion US dollars. You don't have to do anything, just sit there. Second is that China is good for China's strategic reserve. We don't have enough days. We target 90 days. But obviously much less than that. And I think it's also good for China's going out. China's foreign oil dependency roughly 60% of this moment. And last year we put in about 23.4 million units of coal on the stream. And that converted three to 4% of the oil demand. And given that the oil consumption will be 40% in the transportation. So I think that China's oil demand still there and where foreign dependency possibly will continue to go up. So this is really a good opportunity for China to go out, our friend. Let's shift to the oil producers. Let's shift to the oil producers and start with Russia. Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov, many think that Saudi Arabia has been targeting Russia, targeting the US shale producers. It is a fight over a market share. How do you counterbalance this downward pressure when your export earnings are so dependent on oil? First, I would say that rubble will, after depreciation, dramatically appreciate. So no worries. And after high volatility, I think it will be very stable for a while. And so there is no, you know, scary about this. Our dependence on oil, you know, it's known, nothing new. We knew and for many years, it started in the Soviet Union, back in the Soviet Union. And then we recall the times in mid 80s when Soviet Union started suffering from lower oil prices. Now again, is the structure of our economy still the same? Of course not. It changed a lot. But we cannot say that we are independent from oil revenues. But at the current moment, I think on our budgetary revenues, much less dependent on oil and gas than it was 10 years ago. Now it's around 50% before it was much higher. The structure is shifting, but slowly. Nothing good for us at the moment. 2015 is going to be a hard year. But at the same time as again, your first question, it will force us to provide better structure for the economy for the next decade. There's very hard agenda, but we are focused on it. With China, they are interested in lower prices. But at the same time, we are interested in very good customers. China maybe is going to be number one customer for Russia because they are very predictable and good partner. And they say whatever prices that we will consume. And for Russian producers, they are very important to have predictable lines and understanding how they can produce and sell. So in all these very complicated picture, we are quite sure that with China and other consumers, including EU, EU is a very good partner for Russia for consuming oil, I guess. But at the same time, we understand that we cannot afford to leave the same standards as we got used for the period of 15 years. It was a very good period. We were able to achieve a lot. The country is not that poor as we started in 2000 year or 1999. So, you know, this big strong economy with its difficulties, as everybody has in their country's difficulties, but now the understanding that we cannot afford leaving the same and based on high oil prices, it's obvious. And it's good that we understand this. I want to pinpoint the question in the oil market today. Is this fight by Saudi Arabia for market share? Can we find common ground with Russia and the United States so we don't debilitate future investment into oil? $50 is very painful for Russia. $50 price is not painful for oil companies. It's painful for the country because of the revenues. But if you speak with Luke Oil, I see the president of the company here and other producers, $50 per barrel is okay for them. They will be very good development companies. They will sell their products. It's okay. It'll be very painful for us, for the government and for the regional governments to how to produce the same life standards and for the things we got used to, including many things we import, we buy from abroad. So, but again, so for the oil producers, it's okay at this price. And so they will be very competitive. Of course, they are not producing, they are cost much higher than in the Gulf countries, but they will be competitive. But for the budgetary purposes, it's very painful. Mr. Lozoia, how do you see this playing out? Mexico is at the OPEC meeting before it started in November where I was there to cover it. They tried to have this cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and it didn't amount to anything. Do you actually see in 2015 where a dialogue would take place between non-OPEC players like Russia, Mexico and OPEC to lift this price or those days are long gone? I think the OPEC has a clear policy, which is to continue production at around 30 million barrels per day. They have done some in the last decade and they will not change it. And they are the most efficient producers and at current prices, they will take away the marginal producers, in particular, those in the United States that have costs per barrel above $40. And I think that's a fact of the market. If I was a banker financing this company in the U.S., I would be worried. In the case of Mexico, we are in a different bucket. Pemex's production cost is $23 per barrel. So we are still a very profitable company at current levels. As the deputy prime minister was mentioning, for Pemex, it's painful in cash flows, but in particular, it's difficult, not for Pemex, but for the revenues that the government receives, which is 30%. However, Mexico was very prudent in this sense and the government hedge all the oil revenues for 2015 at $79. So the expenditures by the government in 2015 are covered. It will have an impact on GDP, as I mentioned. A marginal one, it could be over 4% or GDP if prices were not at current levels. But I think the question is we have to differentiate the energy cycles from the financial cycles. Financial cycles in one, two years, that's a long term. For the energy sector, 15 years is a medium term. All our projects are long term. And if you look at the official estimates, not our own estimates, by the International Energy Association, by 2030, total demand will be 120 million barrels per day. So we need 25 more million barrels per day in the next decades. Where will that come from? From very complex projects. Those projects are frontier in the frontier markets and we need the capital investments to be done. So at current prices, no company will do them. So I think prices will be elsewhere sometime. It depends how long they stay at current levels, how much pain the, I would say, the more costly producers face. But I am, in the context of Mexico, going back to my country, we have just concluded an energy reform that is historic. We're opening up the energy sector for the first time in 75 years. And as our production costs are competitive, I was mentioning the $23 figure, we expect despite the current prices, investment to come in, live production and be ready to have our production higher when prices are higher, because they will clearly be higher at some point in the near future. Patrice Mosepi, it's interesting, Tanzania, Mozambique, great natural gas finds that was going to counterbalance Nigeria, which is going through a very difficult time right now because it's competing in a much more competitive oil market. Does the great dream of big oil and gas development in East Africa and expansion in Nigeria go away now or just get postponed? Well, these are long-term investments. I mean, when we, in our industry, for example, which is mining industry, we commit significant resources for the next 10, 15, 20 years. And those projects that are underway in Tanzania, in Kenya and elsewhere on the continent will continue. But the interesting thing is that the reduced oil price is a double-edged sword. For those non-oil-producing countries on the continent, this will have a huge impact on a reduced inflation and more money in the pockets of the consumers. What is also interesting is if you look at some of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, those over the last 10 years, some of them are neither oil-producing economies, nor are they your traditional or mining export economies, Ethiopia, Kenya itself, Burkina Faso, Rwanda. But the oil, the projects that were initiated that you start that you refer to are long-term projects and we remain optimistic that they will contribute to us the growth of the African economy. Okay, third block of our program here, and this is gonna be on geopolitical risk, and I'd ask our panelists to be very tight then. I wanna allow that 10, 12 minutes to the floor for questions here. We saw a kind of Islamic radicalism, if I can say that, burst onto the scene here in France. Maurice Levy, would you suggest this is the greatest geopolitical risk in Europe today? I don't believe that it is only in Europe. I think it's the radical terror that we are seeing today. It's something which is blind. And you have not one organization which is acting. You have a lot of people who can act on behalf of that organization anywhere in the world. And what has been quite impressive is the response of the people. And I thought that finally after all these painful moment and the extremely dramatic moment you saw the rebound of the people we are all thinking that France was tired, depressed and we had no longer the ability of jumping again and you saw four million people in the streets and the solidarity of the world which has been enormous. The response of the world has been just incredible to see all these head of states marching in Paris. I was marching, I can tell you, I am Charlie. And it was extremely impressive. And I believe that we can expect a lot of terrorist acts in many places and it is something which cannot be predictable, which can happen anywhere, can happen in Argentina, can happen in Turkey, in Russia, in any given country in the US and we know that there is a lot of events which have been stopped. And if I can share something with you which is during the meeting we had at the IBC we were asking the people what was the more threatening issue for the future? I suppose geopolitical event and behind this world there is obviously the terror which can happen suddenly. So we have to get used to that and we have to think that life is stronger than fear and hope is much stronger than being scared and we have to fight against terror and they believe we are ready. Turkey lives in probably the roughest neighborhood. Do you have Syria to the south? ISIS has taken territory in Syria and Iraq. What would you put as the number one geopolitical risk for you or strategic security risk for Turkey now? Well, first of all, terror does not have religion. Terror does not have nationality. Terrorism is a global problem which does need a united effort an international effort to cope with. So we cannot identify terror with any region of the world or any ethnic origin or any religion or whatsoever. So I think as a principle, as a principle we have to have a very united stance. And we had unfortunate events in Paris and many actual leaders including King Abdullah of Jordan, Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine, my prime minister, Davutov, they were all there to stay united against terror. So I think that as a principle is very important. And on the other hand, I think we should be looking at this terror or extremism from a global point of view and also realize that in Europe especially there are some rising dangerous trends Islamophobia, xenophobia, nationalist trends. These are actually all the things that we have to be careful about. Just in last one month in Germany, 94 mosques were burned down. So it is very important I think for the political leaders to stay united and to have one single approach of terrorist of any kind, extremist of any kind. So in Syria it is a big problem. In Syria it was originally regime and rebellion fighting against each other. But then we have now not only ISIS but also PYD and many other terrorist organizations fighting with each other, fighting with regime and so forth. And I think again the problem with Syria right on our border is that we don't really see a single united stance for what kind of a solution we want to find for Syria. Only military means is not enough to solve terrorism problem. If you think that you can use just weapons to kill terrorists and the terror will end is not the case. There should be more of an integrated, comprehensive approach and using many different tools, the political tools, the social tools, economic tools, intelligence tools in an integrated way and in a united manner so that only we can solve this problem. Deputy Prime Minister Shubalov, a Russian executive says something to be very prescient I thought he said. It's very hard to see a solution with Russia and Ukraine was gotten so personal between President Putin, US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It's become so personal that there's no easy exit out of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That has to be the number one risk and I don't see an easy solution to it as we go into 2015. I just agree. I understand that now everybody is speaking about Ukraine when the subject is about Russia but that's not the case. I agree that number one geopolitical risk at the moment is terror threat. And when everything started in Syria, my president was very strong addressing to the American nation and American president and speaking with European leaders that Syria is not our neighbor but so close and the whole region is very fragile. Once any military operation starts, it could influence our peaceful existing immediately. And Russian people don't feel safe when people in the States talk about any possible military action in Syria or in Iran or elsewhere. So, at the same time, you need to remember the size of my country. It's huge. We start from the Baltic season and then the Pacific Ocean is the next age. So, when something happens in Iran or Syria, Turkey, we feel it and we feel it strongly. Of course, Ukraine. Ukraine is not only our neighbor. You know, we feel, Ukrainians are our friends, family members, I don't know how to call them. They're so close to us. So many Ukrainians living in Russia, so many Russians living in Ukraine. So, one would argue, you like them so much, you've gone into the eastern half of the country. No, we, yeah, I know those jokes, but, you know... I don't mean that as a joke, actually. Actually, we are not meaning anything and I didn't hear anything from my president or prime minister meaning that, you know, we have interest to separate these regions from Ukraine. We are interested in having whole Ukraine as it is, the sovereign country. The only thing we want to stop the war, because that war influences us and this geopolitical risk, but not the major one, because all regional wars, all regional conflicts will influence Russia and people who are going to invest. They don't feel safe. That's not only the investment climate. People are always talking about investment climate. They will say how we feel with our friend China and for the last decade our relationship became much better. So, people are coming and invest in the neighbor regions from outside and we see not only Chinese investors from Korea, from Japan and others, even American and Canadian companies investing there. But before, I think it was impossible because for them it was a real risk. So, now, you know, at some part of my country it's becoming safer and some where it is Ukraine or closer to those regions where the Middle East is. So, that's more dangerous. And again, I would repeat it and I agree, geopolitical risk number one for 15 and maybe next year's will be terror threat. Trish Meshevi, very quickly here because of time. Africa has not been untouched by terror. Boko Haram read the heart of it. Kenya's had its challenges. Algeria's had its challenges. Mali's had its challenges. Can we get these pockets of terror in Africa under control in Kenya, in Nigeria, Mali, Southeast Algeria that we saw in the past year and a half? Terror is not confined to any specific area, whether it's Africa or any other part. It's a global threat and it's a global challenge and requires global cooperation. But there is a huge determination to deal with the terror and the threats in those areas that you've identified in. The United Nations is playing a role. Some of the African Union is contributing. It's a very serious threat that requires focused attention and focused action in the short term. But also that has to go hand in hand with education. We have to educate our youth to understand that terrorism, violence is totally unacceptable. It cannot be justified under any circumstances. But we are optimistic and confident that we should make progress in that regard. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Let's open the floor to questions. I would like to bring a microphone to the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan here to the front row. Maya Tukon, would you like to weigh into the debate? First, let's go to the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan here. And if we can get a second microphone that we can have. Do we have other questions from the floor? Because we have about five or six minutes and I want to make sure we address it. It'd be interesting to get, Prime Minister, your perspective here. A neighbor of Russia engaged in a European zone with Russia, the Eurasia's economic zone. It's not an easy time economically for Kazakhstan with oil prices down, commodity prices down. And your neighbor having very difficult time of sanctions as well. How do you contend with it as a very large country at the center which anchored its future to Russia at the same time? Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak to you. I would like to have an answer a little bit broader, not just our Eurasian Economic Union, which was started January for this year. It was a very interesting discussion about the price for oil and the changes, structural changes in the world. We believe that this year price for oil will be low and next week we are planning to go to the parliament with the changes for the budget for $50. We think the average price for oil in 2015 will be $48.50. And we look at this current situation on the price for energy, not to compare with all eight or all nine with the temporary changes on the price for oil. We look at the structural changes, like it was in 84.89 when the price for oil fell down from $30 to $10 per barrel, which is $140 in today's terms. And the price for oil except the time of 91 during the war in the Gulf, it come up to the level of $30 per barrel only 20 years later, only in 2004. That's why what is happening right now, it's not a short term, it's a long term, it's structural changes. And we made a decision and actually yesterday we signed an agreement with the OECD for country strategy program, and we made a decision that Kazakhstan will be a full member of OECD, whatever it takes. And I think the structural reforms during the hard time is very important. And this is a unique opportunity for us, for Kazakhstan. And we believe we are constantly in a discussion with our strategic partners, with our friends from Russia, that they have the same idea, that structural reforms needed for Russia as well, as well as it is needed for Kazakhstan. With China, in December we had a visit of Prime Minister Lee and a couple of days ago, we had a discussion here in Davos as well. We will have a joint program for economic belt for New Silk Road. And we agree that it will be quite a heavy investment into the diversification of the economy in Kazakhstan, which will be linked to the Chinese economy, but at the same time, we have quite a good opportunity for the whole market with Russia and Kazakhstan. I just need to have you wrap up in the next 30 seconds, if I may. Yeah, okay, making this long story short, I think this is a unique opportunity for emerging markets to restructure the economy and to get a growth, not in 2015, but to get a growth later, but more stable, thank you. Thank you for the input. Finance Minister Amaya Toukan, your import costs for energy have gone down. We have about a minute for your interjection. What did you learn from the panel here? And of course, Jordan sits on the doorstep of ISIS as well. There's a regional security threat. You're trying to get growth of 4% this year. What's the most important point for you in 2015? I really think 2015 should be good for oil importers, of course, including Jordan. We are an oil importer. It's working. Yeah, so by and large, the decline in oil price to 50 or 40 clearly should be good for the global economy. Of course, oil producers may face some challenges regarding the revenues for the budget. But what worries me really is that this decline in oil price, as well as what the ECB did yesterday, monetary easing or fiscal stimulus in some countries, are making people complacent. Already we have people in my country saying, let's relax the reforms and given this favorable circumstance. This is a serious issue. The other point I just want to make is that it seems the traditional measures to achieve growth, which is capital spending or investment spending, is not working anymore as expected. We're not creating jobs. And what seems to be, maybe it should be timely to think of looking at the history of the modern history, we need a major technological breakthrough to create jobs. Because the traditional capital spending, targeting capital projects is not working. It's not creating enough jobs. And maybe it's time to think of a more non-traditional ways to create jobs and achieve growth. Thank you, Dr. Chukhan. In fact, the International Labor Organization came out with its youth unemployment report this week and the pressure after the Arab Spring only made matters worse, as everybody knows. But the youth unemployment rate is nearly 30%. The Middle East or North Africa, it is a crisis, as you are suggesting. Any other questions from the floor? We have about a minute before we wrap. Please, we can get a microphone here. And there's one here. Yeah, I have to ask you, because I promised the Deputy Prime Minister he would be out of here now. So let's keep it direct. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for giving me the opportunity. Thank you. And I want to thank you right at the panel. I would request Morris Levy about his vision on India and China. But he has experienced on the, recently we had a plan about Silk Route. You know, the Silk Route when I was in New York, I was attending the Silk Route and I got this message to go to G20 meeting and it took off and China is financing 40 billion on this particular deal. So I was wondering, China, India, as the world is changing around, everybody talks about these two countries. What is your vision on this particular? We have a new Prime Minister in India. He's trying to jumpstart the economy. Thank you. Exactly, we have a new Prime Minister in India who seemed to be addressing all the major issues. But you know that part of the problem in India, there are many problems. One very important problem is infrastructure. And it is a shame to see that India has not yet been able to build some very modern infrastructure. The other problem is the problem we know about corruption. But when you look at the whole aspect of India, there is a lot of reason why you should be very positive about the country. We have just made a very important investment. India will be our second country in terms of the size of our headcount. The number one country will be the US with roughly 30,000 people. In India, we will have 13,000 people. And then come China with 7,000 or 8,000 people. And France is becoming our fourth country in terms of size. So you see that we are believing in India and we are investing. So I think provided that you address the real issues and that you address these issues very seriously and without any complacency, I think you will have the support of the investors. Okay, final interjection from the floor. Excuse me, I have to wrap up. Sorry about that. I don't mean to be rude, but you can talk after. Final interjection very quickly, please. Yes, I'm Sagar from Mogudisha Somalia. I'm a member of a young global shepherds community. My question is Mr. Motsabe. We've seen a lot of help coming from Africa, especially when it comes security. But also there are so many other helps and approaches coming from other countries, from, for example, Turkey. And also we see now a new investing opportunities from China. When are we seeing Africa and money coming to Somalia when it comes businesses and economic growth other than the security contribution that they have right now? Thank you. I mean, we're very confident of the future of East Africa and Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and one of our companies is indeed looking at those parts of the world. And there's a new breed of entrepreneurs from Nigeria, from sub-Saharan Africa, and young entrepreneurs, small businesses, but also significant companies, some of them in partnership with Chinese, American, European, and so you will see a significant amount of investments in the medium to long term. Okay, very quickly, 30 seconds. For Somalia, just an example, actually, but if we really have some dedication and some good targeted work, the progress could be real fast. When we had, we started the scheduled flights to Mogadishu, the Mogadishu Airport was listed as terminally closed. So we had to rebuild the airport, the road from airport to downtown, now building three hospitals and so forth. And I think if that psychological barrier is passed and if the population and the outside help is united, then it becomes a very strong answer to terror and violence and so forth, which has been demonstrated, I think in a very nice way recently in Somalia. Thank you very much. I want to thank our deputy prime ministers for the great interjections in our entire panel. Thank you for the inputs from the floor, prime minister and finance minister in particular. A nice round of applause and thank you very, very much for your time.