 For the first time in about a month, the NASCAR Cup Series is going back to a one-and-a-half mile track this weekend in Kentucky. They've been at these big, flat, fast tracks for the past two weekends and a different type of driver is going to contend there than what we should expect for this weekend. It requires kind of us to reset our brains, go back to the homestead race, back in the middle of June, and try to remember who was fast in those races. The good thing is we don't have to care as much about where drivers start as we have for the past couple of weeks, and that is definitely a relief and something we should focus on heavily for this weekend. We have more freedom with DFS lineups, and we should be willing to exploit that as we fill them out for Sunday's race. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire here to break down the Quaker State 400 in Kentucky from a DFS perspective. Lock for that one is set for 2.30 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. So a little bit earlier lock that we've had recently, the Indie Race was at like four o'clock, and I think Pocono is around then too. So earlier lock, make sure you are aware of that. But the good thing is you can fill out lineups literally right now. We have all the information we are going to have through Sunday available right now. So feel free to fill out lineups while you listen along here because we can do that right now. That is one of the luxuries of this COVID-19 schedule. Having the starting order set on Wednesday or Thursday definitely a major advantage for us as DFS players. Before we take a look at the track breakdown here for Kentucky, quick reminder to subscribe to the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed because we got a lot of good stuff going on there right now. We have PGA podcast with myself and Brandon Cadulla going up every week. We also have a USC podcast this week with Austin Swain breaking down USC 251 at Fight Island. You can find that right now on the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Next week I am kind of out, but we'll still have two NASCAR podcasts prerecorded and set and ready to discuss strategies for Bristol at the All-Star Race and for the Kansas Race following that. Actually, I guess I think it's Texas. But regardless, those will be up next week. So make sure you are subscribed to get those as they come. Go check out the USC podcast right now as well. Speaking of USC, the next USC event is on Fight Island and Fandall is celebrating the highly anticipated action with one of its biggest MMA contests yet. For just $8.88, enter Fandall's $200,000 Saturday USC Super Octagon and compete for your share of the $20,000 prize pool including a $50,000 first-place prize. Take your pick of Kamaru Usman, Amanda Kibas, Leonardo Santos, and so many more and follow along using Fandall's live scoring as the fights unfold. Someone is going to take down a share of $50,000 on Saturday and might just be you. For more details, visit Fandall.com or download the Fandall app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for Kentucky and as mentioned, we can finally go back to targeting drivers based on their speed rather than where they're starting for this race. The race is 267 laps long which is about 100 laps from where we've been over the past four races and in shorter races we need to sell out, sell our souls for place differential. Here there are enough laps to be led where we can get upside from drivers starting near the front by leading laps. But even there we do have freedom in where we get those drivers who could lead laps. In 15 races at one and a half mile tracks using this exact same package, six drivers have led at least 40% of the laps, three of those six drivers started ninth or lower, 15 drivers have led at least 30% of the laps, seven of them so about half in both samples started eighth or lower so it does help to start up front. Starting up front is not a bad thing. Pulsators tend to lead a good number of laps but it is not a prerequisite to start up front to lead laps. So even if you love a driver who drew like 11th hypothetically where Denny Hamlin drew I believe that can still be okay. That driver can still lead laps despite that. You can still feel really good about that driver and that's especially true with how the starting order was set because again top 12 cars and owner points starting in the top 12 spots of the race they drew randomly to set the order of those 12 and this will be the third time they've had a race like that where the starting order was set this way at a one and a half mile track. In the first two races we've seen four drivers lead at least 20% of the laps and those four drivers started the race in 1st, 9th, 11th and 11th. So whether they were in the front half of the top 12 or the bottom half it didn't really matter as long as they were fast they could still lead laps. The one thing they did have in common though those four drivers lead at least 20% of the laps is that they all came from those top 12 starting positions they were in the top 12 and owner points this makes sense because those are the 12 best cars so far this season so clearly they're the ones most likely to run out front and get you upside via leading laps. If you look at the perfect lineups in those two races like this one both of them had at least two drivers starting inside the top 12 make the perfect lineup so that's how I'm going to start my lineups for this week. I will likely have two drivers in the top 12 in most of my lineups for sure and then I'll look for place differential from there. The reason for that comes from the perfect lineup and looking for the place differential after I get those two drivers inside the top 12. Both of those perfect lineups had one driver starting outside the top 30 who made it it was Cole Custer once and Christopher Bell once and those cars have speed the cars some of the cars outside the top 24 and owner points but they haven't had the consistency to be in the top 24 and owner points so if you see a driver we'll talk about a couple starting outside the top 24 who has had speed on this track type you should feel good about them and as mentioned there will be at least two we'll discuss later on in this podcast today the same thing goes for drivers who draw towards the bottom end of the range from 13th to 24th those cars could be as high as 13th and owner points they're good they're fast but again they just haven't been as consistent as those top 12 drivers they can easily pop off a top 10 run in an individual race and if you get that out of a driver starting in the middle of the pack they're probably going to wind up within the perfect lineup on Fandall so for value plays I do still value place differential it's just not as big of an emphasis as it was to the races in Pocono Indianapolis and Talladega I will give a bump up to drivers who drew towards the bottom end of their tier and we'll talk about several of those drivers throughout the podcast for today but as long as I expect that driver to be fast they can be in play pretty much no matter where they start from a value play perspective now the way to determine who will be fast is looking at past races at one and a half mile tracks this is the sixth race at a one and a half mile track so far this year two of those in Las Vegas and Homestead also had lower banking like Kentucky so I'd put the heaviest emphasis on races in Las Vegas and Homestead when you're trying to decide who will be fast on Sunday but Atlanta and the two Charlotte races can also let us know what we should expect because they're the same length different bankings not the same thing and that's why I want to value Vegas and Homestead more but it can definitely give us a signal to to look at Atlanta and Charlotte's and this is true for both the studs and the value plays looking at what the studs have done can tell you who in the top 12 has the upside to lead laps and wing looking at the value plays tells you who has the ability to snag some place differential points and finish better than where they're starting so to recap here we've got freedom in the starting position of our studs they can start first they can start 12th doesn't matter too much as long as they are fast they can lead laps and win this race I would give a bump up to value drivers starting at the bottom end of their tier whether it be 13th to 24th or between 25th and 36th give them a bump up because place differential does matter and we can target them starting higher in the order if you think they can get a top 10 finish didn't wind up being that way for a lot of the value guys for this week a lot of the value guys did draw towards the bottom of their tier we'll talk about them in the tier by tier breakdown so uh but if you if you love Ricky Santas Jr or Chris Busher starting in 14th and 13th then you can definitely justify them as long as you think they can get a top 10 and finally lean on Las Vegas and Homestead most heavily when trying to decide who will be fast on sunday sprinkle in so some thoughts uh based on Atlanta and Charlotte as well that wraps up the track breakdown here for Kentucky so let's dive into the tier by tier breakdown based on the salaries over at fan dual starting off with the elite tier that is Kevin Harvick at $14,500 through Martin Truex Jr at $12,300 and if you look at this tier based on my model it's kind of Kevin Harvick in a tier of his own Denny Hamlin a tier of his own and they're the top two guys and that makes complete sense and is likely how things should be with how well those two drivers have run this year they're probably going to be the two I like the most straight up once again and I will try to pair them together when I can at times just because I think that uh the upside in them is really big but I want to take a second here to discuss Kyle Busch at $13,000 because as we discussed in the podcast I have been pretty off Busch for a while now I've written 17 betting guides for Nat or for Number Fire so far this year and Busch has been in only two of them one of them was for the Busch clash which was an exhibition race in Daytona doesn't count the second time that Busch was in my betting guide is today for the Kentucky race and there are a couple of reasons for that the first one is that he's on the pole which definitely increases his laps lead projection increases his upside but second he had some decent runs in the more recent races at the one and a half mile tracks yet a fourth place average running position in Atlanta he finished second in that race he was also fourth in the first Charlotte race and Busch has had a top five average running position in seven of his nine career races in Kentucky he's won twice so I've been off Kyle Busch for a while it dates back to before the start of the 2020 season even during the playoffs last year he wasn't that good it's he's had one win in the past calendar year and that's wild for Kyle Busch but I think this is finally a time to buy into the bounce back I will have some in DFS for sure and I think that he's an interesting win bet he's seven to one at Fandall Sportsbook I've been off him all year but I think to me this is the spot where I want to attack Kyle Busch and go at him once again at $13,000 on Fandall Chase Elliott Martin Truex Jr in this tier as well Truex is awesome at this track he's won twice in the past three years Elliott has been crazy fast on this track type two so I am okay with everybody in this tier but if I'm ranking them for DFS I'm going to go Harvick one Hamlin two Kyle Busch three Chase Elliott four and Martin Truex junior five I again I like all of them but if I had to rank them I think that's the order in which I go again Harvick kind of a tier of his own Hamlin the same thing followed by Busch in that third tier moving to the second tier on Fandall that is Joey Logano at 11-7 through Clint Boyer at 10-2 and this is a really solid tier because I think several drivers in this tier have a shot to win the race but there are two drivers starting outside the top 12 we should discuss briefly those two guys Eric Jones and Clint Boyer and they're both really good at this track Jones is starting 16th his finishes here in the cup series are sixth seventh third and third respectively Boyer starting 15th so one-spot headed Jones and he's $10,200 Boyer had an awesome car here last year he had a ninth place average running position in the year before that so the two are kind of spendy and they might rob you of another potential dominator and that's definitely a negative so they're going to be more secondary type plays for me they're not going to be core plays because I don't expect either to win and I want to make sure I'm getting exposure to drivers I think can lead laps not sure Jones and Boyer will do that but I want to make sure I get enough of these two guys where I can benefit if they go off so definitely keeping a close eye on Clint Boyer and Eric Jones and wanting to get enough but I don't want it to rob me of another driver who could potentially lead laps within those top 12 as for the others in this tier my favorite shockingly is Ryan Blaney yet again at $11,000 Blaney had a fourth place average running position at this track two years ago but more importantly he has four top fives in five races at one and a half mile tracks this year in the race where he did not get a top five finish he was leading with a couple of laps left and got burned by a late caution he pitted finished 11th wasn't good but he was leading that race later on Blaney is contended at all five races that tracks like this so far this year he led 70 laps in homestead which is a really good indicator of what to expect for this weekend one thing that can help you get to guys like Boyer and Jones is using Blaney as your second stuff because he's only $11,000 you could pair Blaney with Harvick Hamlin or Bush and that should allow you to get back up to Boyer and Jones with that third slot and that's a build I will try to use at times this weekend that's the one situation where I think I can get up to Jones and Boyer without punting for my final spot so I'm going to try to do that this weekend so among the potential dominoes Blaney is first for me I'll go Lugano second Kecilowski third and among the potential place differential guys I would go Jones above Boyer due to how I view the upside within those two drivers moving to the mid-range that is Alex Bowman at $10,000 through Matty Benedetto at $8,600 and this tier has a lot of guys starting in the top seven slots and that's tough for guys who are not elite plays I don't mind Bowman as a potential contrarian play with how fast he has been on the one-half mile tracks this year interesting win bet too and only Kevin Harvick has led more laps on the one-half mile tracks than Bowman so far this year but I think Bowman's a better bet than he is a DFS play one guy in this middle tier is starting in the back of the pack that guy is Christopher Bell all the way back in 34th and he is going to be a core play yet again if you've been listening to this podcast the past couple of weeks you know we've used Bell a lot we're going to do it again once again here Fandula has been upping the salary on Bell because he keeps starting so far back but even at $9,000 I still think he is very worthy of that salary because Bell has been hot recently he's had good runs he finished 12th in Indy despite a late pit stop he was running higher than that for most of the race finished fourth in the first Pocono race and those are not similar to this track but Bell also has a pair of top 10 finishes at the one and a half mile tracks since the end of the COVID-19 layoff and if you can get a top 10 finish out of a driver starting 34th I don't really care that much about the salary yeah $9,000 is a lot for a guy with win odds as long as Christopher Bell's but he's going to be a top notch DFS play if he gets another top 10 finish and I think that's very much within his range of outcomes again on Sunday so that's what we have with Bell here he will be a lock for me in cash games probably the first driver I put in my lineup and he's going to be a core play for tournaments too that plays differential upside is just way too good on him for me to pass it up Bowman is starting up front but we have two of his Hendrick motorsports teammates starting in the middle of the pack those guys are Jimmy Johnson in 20th and William Byron in 21st I love both of those drivers Elliott has been arguably the best car on one and a half mile tracks so far this year so you know this team has speed which should make us like both Johnson and Byron as well now Johnson coming off the first missed race he's had in basically two decades due to COVID-19 that pushed him outside the top 12 known or points but it puts him in a position to rack up place differential points which is tremendous from a DFS perspective as for Byron his finishes at the one and a half mile tracks have been pretty bad and that's because he is a volatile driver he is very young and you expect young drivers to have upside but also have a whole lot of downside and Byron has very much had that but but the speed for Byron has been great and that means we can't expect him to push for a top 10 finish so I like both these guys a lot both Johnson and Byron and I'm gonna have both them in the same lineup pretty often I think they stack well with Chase Elliott if you just want to go all in on Hendrick motorsports I will have that lineup plenty as well but if I had to pick between the two I'd favor Johnson because the consistency is higher and both those guys sit behind Bell but I am really in on all three of these drivers in the middle tier Christopher Bell Jimmy Johnson William Byron regardless of format they are all three really good plays for DFS on Sunday moving down to the value tier on Fandle that is Matt Kenseth at $8,200 through Austin Dillon at $7,200 and this is another tier where one driver is starting further back and that guy is Cole Custer who is $7,700 and starting 29th. Custer actually won here in the Xfinity series last year and he's shown a lot more life recently the downside here is that he hasn't shown that same life on the one and a half mile tracks his best finish there is 12th and that's his only finish better than 18th so if we're talking about which of these drivers starting further back I am more willing to fade it would be Cole Custer I'd rather fade him than Bell but I do think that Custer is a good play and should probably be atop this tier he will not be atop this tier though the one thing that prevents me from putting Cole Custer at the top of my list within this this value tier is that both Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon are in this range and they have been crazy fast on these tracks this year. Reddick is starting 24th that's just five spots ahead of Custer so the place differential the equation not that different there Austin Dillon is up in 19th and Reddick had a fourth place finish in homestead as you know he was eighth in the first Charlotte race but Dillon has actually had three top fives in five races on this track type for the season he is a full $800 cheaper than Reddick. Dillon has not been as good at this specific track but he is the 13th overall driver in the current form section of my model which is the highest of anybody in this tier by five whole spots he's clear of everyone by five spots the guy second on that list is Reddick up in 18th so that's enough for me to put Dillon as my highest ranked driver for DFS in this tier ahead of Custer ahead of Reddick I'll put Reddick second and Custer third Ryan Newman starting 23rd is worth a look too but he'd be fourth on my list I just love the speed that RCR has had this year that puts me very much in on Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick for Sunday's race the punting tier it's not so hot it's Chris Busher at $7,000 on down this has Chris Busher and Ricky Sendhouse Jr and they're fine but they're starting 13th and 14th so nobody in this tier really stands out to me as being an elite play for DFS I'm going to try to make Austin Dillon my salary floor in cash games if I can and I can I feel a lot of lineup before but it's you can make that work and I don't want to dig down here in tournaments all that often John Hunter Nemechek Michael McDowell Ryan Priest they're all at least in play of the three I'd probably go McDowell just because he's starting 30th he finished 15th in Homestead I would not expect the same speed he's had the past two weeks to carry over but you know he's he's in play I think there are also worse ideas and using Ricky Sendhouse Jr as a sprinkle play in tournaments he's starting 14th he has two top fives at one half mile track so far this year he could do that again if he does he will obviously pay off at $6,500 I just want more wiggle room and where my drivers are starting and the starting spot for Sendhouse does not give me that so sprinkles of Sendhouse in tournaments but in general I want to live above this tier when possible trying to get to guys like Newman like Austin Dillon and building from there so I'm punting tier we got Nemechek McDowell Priest maybe some to Sendhouse but to me it's all about that tier above them when I can be there let's finish up here with my picks to win for this week one above $10,000 and one below $10,000 I am going to stick with Kyle Bush I again I don't think I picked him at all so far this year for this segment but starting first he's shown more speed recently at the one half mile tracks he was good in Indianapolis as well but got or I guess the second Pocono race got wrecked there I think we could see a turn around eventually and I think that the salary coming down the win odds lengthening it's enough for me to buy back in on Kyle Bush so I'm gonna go Kyle Bush my win pick for Kentucky for the guy below $10,000 we didn't talk about him in the tier by tier breakdown because he's starting 10th but I kind of dig Matti Benedetto again he was really fast in Las Vegas finished second in that race he's $8600 he was really good the past two weeks he's had a top 10 average running position in three of the past six races something he had done three times his entire career before that point so I'm gonna go Kyle Bush and Matti Benedetto as my picks to win for Kentucky's Quaker State 400 that is all that we have for today once again I will have podcasts out for the All-Star race on Wednesday and for the race the following Sunday they probably won't have a lot of discussion of drivers I'm not sure if I'll be able to record them after starting order has been set because I'm out most of next week but I'll slowly something up there so we can talk some strategy and general outlines and roster construction for those two events make sure you subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed to get those right when they go up make sure check out our USC 251 podcast about Fight Island with Austin Swain if you want a betting angle on that we talked with Megan Nunez on covering the spread as well so lots of good stuff here on the FanDuel podcast network if you have any questions for me I am at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the FanDuel podcast network at FanDuel podcast big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer from the video side of things here today thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in both today and always here for the heat check fantasy podcast hopefully things can go well for you in Sunday's race we'll talk to you again next week this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire