 We've been without sports for such a long time that it seems like they would never come back, but now suddenly we have this NASCAR is coming up on Thursday, but that is the exact same night as MLB opening night. We have basketball coming one week after that. So our run with NASCAR DFS kind of being the lone ranger in the sporting world is coming to an end, which is kind of sad, but we're still going to have this NASCAR podcast here. We're still going to have NASCAR DFS to play. It's going to be a little bit different than what it was previously, but I am excited for Thursday nights race. It's going to be a fun one. I like Kansas as a track, so it should be a good way to go out on a high note and then transition to this phase where we'll have a lot of things going on all at once. It's going to be a whole lot of fun to talk to you, to record those podcasts and get you all set for all those slates. And I'm looking forward to that experience. But before we do that, let's dive in and talk about Thursday night's race in Kansas. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com here to break down the super start batteries 400. That is a Kansas on Thursday night locks at 730 p.m. Eastern and should be an interesting one starting order has not been set yet. We are recording this on Wednesday morning. So no starting order as of yet, but we do know broadly where drivers will start. We'll base some analysis on that and have some discussions around contingency plans based on where certain drivers may draw. First of all, big thank you to everyone for being patient with me last week when I was out for my wedding. I do appreciate everyone being pretty chill about that. The congratulations on Twitter. That was nice of you as well. So thank you for the patience. We are now back to a regular schedule and pack with a lot of podcasts. We have this one here today. We have the solo shots are MLB DFS podcast coming back tomorrow and Friday as well. We'll have a UFC heat check coming up on Friday with Austin Swain. Brandon Gadoula already recorded the PGA podcast without me. How dare he? Which means the picks will be better, which is, I guess, a good thing for sure. But a lot of good stuff. So make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed, which you can find wherever you get your podcasts. Make sure you subscribe. And if you like what you hear, please rate and review as well because that does help us out a ton. A lot of stuff coming up over these next couple of weeks. So we'll take a look at the track breakdown here for a Thursday night in just one second at first. 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Make sure you check that out over at number fire. Let's dive into the track breakdown here for Kansas, which is the third consecutive race at a one and a half mile track. And this one is back down to being 267 laps, which means it'll be almost a carbon copy of the strategy we discussed entering Kentucky. And if you remember that strategy was to just pick the drivers, we think will be fast regardless of where they're starting. Sounds pretty easy and it is. Kansas is a multi groove track and passing here should be decently easy and they're using the same method to set the starting order as we've seen recently. It's set by owner points where the top 12, starting the top 12 spots, et cetera, et cetera. And then there's a random draw, which will likely be announced on Wednesday night. When that has been the case on one and a half mile track so far this year, we've always had a similar construction in the perfect line. At least two drivers in the perfect lineup has started within the top 12 spots. There have been three drivers from inside the top 12 in two of the four races. Just a bit less likely to happen here with fewer laps to be run on Thursday night. So you want slash need two drivers in the top 12 who can run out front and lead laps. It just doesn't matter where the drivers start within those top 12 spots. 10 total drivers have made the perfect lineup after starting inside the top 12. Three of them did start inside the top five, which means that seven started outside the top five. Six of them started ninth, 10th, or 11th. But those drivers who started towards the back into the top 12 still mostly lead laps. So they weren't getting into the perfect lineup due to place differential, at least to the most part. They were getting there because they led laps and finished well. So I am okay, including two drivers who start right at the front of the pack within the same lineup. The optimal situation here is obviously going to be where we get one driver in each bucket, one driver up front to lead laps in the first stage, and another to lead laps later on. But I wouldn't force that if that's not where the speed pushes you. Try to identify the drivers you think be fastest during the race and use them regardless of where they start. And it's just a little bit extra, a little bit easier for us if those drivers happen to start one of the top five and one a little bit lower to lead laps later on. As far as the value plays go, they're coming from a pretty wide range. Some of them have come from the back. Drivers outside the top 24 and owner points, four of the 10 value plays started 29th or lower. But the four drivers who did that have all since moved up in points. So they were better than their points standings indicated. They had speed, which makes it easy to get place differential. If you can start 29th in a really good car, it makes sense you would make up a lot of ground and be a good DFS play. Now there are a couple of drivers back there this week who we'll talk about in the tier by tier breakdown. So you can still get some place differential here. But I think my main preference will be the drivers near the bottom end of the range from 13th to 24th. Last week in Texas was the first race we have had in this time since Cole Custer moved into the top 24 and owner points. And in that race, three drivers made the perfect lineup after starting between 21st and 24th. There were two in Homestead as well. And I think that's going to be the most lush range with more competent drivers graduating up into the next range. We've been leaning on Cole Custer and Christopher Bell this entire time since the end of the COVID-19 layout. But now both those guys are in the top 24 and owner points and will no longer be these lock button place differential plays. So like I said, there will be some value in looking outside the top 24, but the main appeal to me will be the guys around 20th or so who draw towards the bottom end of that range from 13th to 24th. The one salary dead zone we've kind of had in looking at perfect lineup set, one and a half mile tracks using the same starting order method has been the drivers from $9,100 through $11,000. Only three drivers have made a perfect lineup from there in this four race sample. One of them was Ryan Blaney, who was pretty clearly just underpriced for that race, so it just hasn't been a good range overall. And I'm guessing that's happening for two reasons. The first one is that those drivers aren't the types you expect to lead laps. So if they're in the top 12, they're less likely to dominate. And second, I think it's kind of a roster construction issue because if we're using two drivers inside the top 12 who can lead laps and win, that's going to make us emphasize value plays in our other three slots. If we use one of those slots on a guy with a salary between $9,000 and $11,000, we have to punt with one of those spots. And that's not all that appealing on tracks like this, where speed does matter. Only two drivers with a salary under $7,000 have made it. And those guys were Cole Custer and Christopher Bell, who were starting super deep in the order and have since been priced up to account for their actual speed. So if your lap leaders are cheaper and you can afford mid-range place differential drivers, then go for it. That's totally okay. And they're going to be good plays, but I wouldn't force that in if it makes you use lesser drivers as your swings for lap leaders, or if it forces you to punt in one of your slots, because that has not worked out so far in this range. That's the roster construction for this week. From a data perspective, we have really good recent info at tracks similar to Kansas because Kansas is a moderately banked one and a half mile track. It is a fourth race this year in a track that fits in those two buckets. And it's the third since the end of the COVID-19 layoff. The recent races there have been in Kentucky and Homestead. The other was in Las Vegas back in the beginning of the year. And those are the races I will be leaning on most when trying to decide where the speed is in this field. I'll also look at recent races in Texas, Atlanta, and Charlotte because they are one and a half miles. But our best data will come from Kentucky, Homestead, and Las Vegas with similar banking to what we'll have on Thursday. So if you see a driver you like who is good at those tracks, you can use them no matter where they are starting because speed matters a lot. My personal preference will be one driver starting at the top, the front of the top 12 and one further back while giving preference to drivers starting 20th for my value place. But as long as they're fast, you can have freedom and you can justify them anywhere in this pack. So to recap our strategy for Thursday nights race, we want two drivers in the top 12 to run out front, lead laps and try to win this race. Doesn't really matter where they start within those top 12 spots. After that emphasize a balanced value build after that starting around 20th, tending to be the best. But again, if they're fast, you have some more leeway in that. I would look at Kentucky, Homestead, and Las Vegas for the best information, Texas, Atlanta, and Charlotte are more secondary options when trying to judge who will be fast on Thursday night. With that wrapped up, let's dive into the tier by tier breakdown based on the salaries over at Vanduul. Starting off with the elite tier that is Kevin Harvick at $14,000 through Kyle Busch at $12,000. And Harvick is going to be the tops in this tier for me. He has awesome form and his track history is really good too. He's led 306 laps in the past six races here, which is the most among all drivers. So that's the obvious play going with Kevin Harvick. But I also do want to go out of my way to mention that Chase Elliott is well worth his $13,400 salary. Elliott has been very good on these moderately banked one and a half mile tracks this year. He led 70 laps in Vegas. He was runner up and led 27 laps in Homestead. He had eighth place average running position in Kentucky. The Hendrick cars have lacked speed recently, but Elliott has been largely fine. He hasn't been great, but he's been fine. He will be below Harvick for me, but that's not a knock on Elliott by any means. Elliott is also a hair ahead of Harvick in my model. He ranks second overall while Harvick is third. So I think that there is still reason to be into Chase Elliott, even though Hendrick Motorsports has been down a bit recently. The other three cars in this tier are Joe Gibbs racing cars. And I think I'll put Denny Hamlin just ahead of Martin Truex Jr. Hamlin won Homestead and that's a very similar track to Kansas. The reason I have him ahead just a bit ahead of Truex is that Truex has also been really good on the one and a half mile tracks. He actually led 57 laps in Kentucky and finished second, even though he started that race all the way at the back of the field. So Hamlin and Truex are pretty even to me. I'd still put them a tier ahead of Kyle Busch, even after Busch had a decent run last week. So to me, it's Harvick won, Elliott two, Hamlin three, Truex four, and Kyle Busch five in this tier, in my ranking of the elites over on Fandle. The second tier on Fandle was Brad keselowski at $11,600 through Kurt Busch at $10,200. And this is a really, really strong tier to me, mainly because it has all three of the Penske racing drivers in it. And I like all of them quite a bit. Keselowski is $11,600, Legano is $11,400, and Ryan Blady is $11,000. And Blady is actually the number one driver in my model for Thursday night. Probably does not surprise you if you are a regular listener to this podcast, but I actually agree with it. We've had three races at one and a half mile tracks with moderate banking so far this year. Blady's average running positions in those three races are fourth, third and fifth, respectively. He led 70 laps and finished third in Homestead. And Blady also had a fourth place average running position in, or at least a fourth place average running position in three of the past six races at Kansas. And two of those actually came before he was even with the Penske proper team. So I love Ryan Blady. But I think that Legano is a bit undervalued too. He's been struggling recently. He does have just one top five finish on a one and a half mile track since he won in Las Vegas, but he did lead 27 laps in Homestead and he had a sixth place average running position in Kentucky. So I love Legano as a win bet. He is 16 to one right now at Fandall Sportsbook, but I think he is a good lower salaried stud in DFS as well in a similar vein to Ryan Blady. Prefer Blady, but Legano right there too. Keselowski is always kind of lurking. So I'll put him third. He doesn't dominate as much, but he definitely has the upside to win as he did last year at this exact track. But the broader point here is we should be high on Penske racing entering this weekend. Blaney one, Legano two, Keselowski three, but all three of those guys are among the top eight drivers in my model and among my favorite place for DFS on Thursday night. Two other guys in this range who could be sneaky contenders are Alex Bowman and Eric Almerola. Bowman is one of the three drivers with a top 10 average running position in all three races at the moderately banked one and a half mile track so far this year. The others are Blaney and Chase Elliott, so in good company. Bowman almost won in Las Vegas. He almost won this race last year as well. Keselowski passed him late to get the win and Bowman's first career win came last year in Chicago, which is another track that is similar to Kansas. So I think that Bowman is due for a bounce back and I'm very much not opposed to it. Almerola has been knocking on the door for a while now. Kansas is a great track for him even though he did have a pretty gnarly wreck here a few years ago and we know he has been liquid hot recently. I would put Almerola above Bowman because the form has been better but I'm willing to consider both as lower salaried studs if I want to be more balanced. So Bowman and Almerola in play is not as high on my list as the Penske driver. So to me this tier is Blaney, Legano, Keselowski, Almerola, Bowman and then Kurt Busch is the last one. The mid-range on Fandall is Eric Jones at $10,000 through Austin Dillon at $8,200 and this tier has last week's top two finishers in Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick and I don't think that win for Dillon was a fluke. Yes, it was lucky with the way that circumstances played out but a fluke means you could not have seen it coming. The finishers for Dillon this year kind of said that this was within his range of outcomes and I am in on him again at $8,200 but I'm actually a smidge higher on Reddick even though he has a higher salary at $8,800. The similarities between Homestead and Kansas are what draw me towards Reddick. Reddick is a monster at Homestead. He won two championships there in the Xfinity series and he had a fourth place average running position there in the cup series earlier this summer so he's really good at Homestead. He was also in Kansas in the lower series too. He never won but he was runner up twice. He was fifth in the other race. He also had a top five average running position twice in Kansas in the truck series one of which came during his age 19 season. This will not be the first cup series race for Reddick at Kansas either. He had a one off ride with RCR last year and he finished ninth in that race so Dylan is a really good option once again but I'm going to be a little bit higher on Reddick at $8,800 and I will use him no matter where he starts. I think both these RCR cars are noteworthy for how they've done on the one and a half mile track so far this year. I'll go Reddick just ahead of Dylan as my preference but I think both of them are tremendous options. Right between those two guys is William Byron. He is $8,500 and that's come down. I think that with the two RCR cars having flashed last week we could see Byron check in at a bit lower popularity. That lower salary, the lower popularity is justified but Byron has had a top 10 average running position in two of three races at similar tracks this year. His best finish this year on a one and a half mile track came in Homestead so I'm not as high on him as I am on Reddick and Dylan but he will still be a solid option. I think that if you're looking for a single entry pivot off of the chalk William Byron might wind up being that guy. If you could afford Clint Boyer I would love to get to him. The lone drawback is that he is $9,600 which is tough to get to. Same thing with Eric Jones who is $10,000 so if you can get to Boyer and Jones they are my favorites in this tier and I would favor Jones by a bit but I'm also willing to take the discount and bump down to guys like Reddick and Dylan with Byron firmly in that mix as well. The value tier on Fandle is Christopher Bell at $8,000 through Bubba Wallace at $7,000 and this range includes one of the drivers who is going to give me Knight Terrorers leading in the Thursday night. That guy is Ricky Stenhouse Jr at $7,100. After last week Christopher Bell moved into the top 24 on owner points. That means he will no longer be this lock button play in DFS but in order for him to get in he had to knock somebody out and the guy he knocked out to get in there was Stenhouse and that means Stenhouse will now start between 25th and 36th. That is huge for DFS and he's been good both on this track in the past and on one and a half miles this year. Stenhouse had a sixth place average running position in this race last year finished 11th. That was his best average running position of the entire season and even better than on the drafting tracks. He also has a pair of top five finishes on the one and a half miles this year. That's the good. He has that upside. The bad is that he is still Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and he wrecks a ton. So even if he does have good speed you're not guaranteed to turn that into a good finish. So I think what I'm going to do despite my best thoughts is that I'm going to wind up being overweight on Stenhouse and hoping for the best. That's a terrible strategy in general. Hoping for the best is going to lead you down bad paths and DFS. But there are some people who just refuse to use Stenhouse and DFS because of the crashes. But if he has one of his good days he is a lock for the perfect lineup. There are not many guys you can say that about within this field. For Stenhouse that is true. So I'm going to use him at $7,100. If it hurts me and it might hurt a lot, so be it. But I think he is worth it because of the upsides. We're going to plug our noses, click that button, lock in Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and just pray for a caution-free race on Thursday night. So Stenhouse is first in this tier for me. That's Christopher Bell, second. I'll go Cole Custer, third. Ryan Newman, fourth. Matt Kenseth, fifth. And Bubba Wall is sixth. I like Bubba a lot but his equipment doesn't do him any favors. And I say that acknowledging that he was in the top 10 late last week and acknowledging that he has similar equipment. He has similar engines to Dylan and Reddix. So I like them. I should like him. But I prefer to go with guys in a little bit better equipment who are within the same range. The punting tier on Vanduul is John Hunter Nemechek at $6,700 on down. And Nemechek will be starting similar to Stenhouse outside the top 24, which makes him interesting in a similar vein to Stenhouse. I'd rank Stenhouse higher but Nemechek is at least an option. It may be a pivot off of Stenhouse. Both those guys wreck a lot though. So just be warned and know what you're getting yourself into. My favorite guy in this tier, partly depending on where he draws, is Chris Buscher. Buscher will start between 13th and 24th. So he's not as deep as Stenhouse and Nemechek and that's led to some massive issues for me using Buscher this year because I haven't used him that much even though I adore him in general. But that has pushed his salary all the way down to $6,300 and I think that's too cheap. Buscher had a ninth place average running position in this race last year. He's also had a top 17 average running position in three consecutive races at one and a half mile tracks. Nobody else with a salary of $7,200 or lower has done that even once in this three-way stretch. Buscher, if we look straight up, ranks 19th in my model. He is ahead of Stenhouse, ahead of Bell, Newman, Custer, Nemechek, etc. before you account for starting position. So Buscher might be tough if he draws towards the front end of this range but he's also $6,300 and he could get you access to guys like Boyer and like Jones who are pretty fun in that mid-range on Fanduul. So I am willing to roll the dice on Buscher a pretty fair amount and he will be a core play for me if he winds up drawing at the bottom end of this range between 13th and 24th. So Buscher in play regardless but could be a core play if he winds up starting 20th to 24th. My favorite guys in this range are Nemechek and Buscher. If they draw somewhat near each other like if if Buscher is 24th, Nemechek is 25th, give me Buscher for sure. But if they wind up being super split I will go Nemechek but I'm going to give some preference towards Buscher just because I think that the upside for him, the finishing upside for Buscher is better when we have with Nemechek. Let's finish up here with the picks to win for this weekend as always. One guy above $10,000 and one guy below it and we're going to go Ryan Blaney again. Let's see what happens. Blaney again has had good runs at Kansas in the past. He has been awesome on the one and a half mile track so far this year and we know the speed will be there. So I'm going to go Ryan Blaney one more time. Let's cash in baby. And the driver below $10,000, I am going to go Tyler Redick. I think that the second place finished last week partly based on strategy but he was fast enough to hold that position once he got it. This track is similar to Homestead and we know that Redick can do well there especially given what we saw from him in the cup series this year. So I'm going to go Blaney at the top end, Redick at the bottom for my win picks for this weekend. That is all that we have for Thursday night's race in Kansas. Do not fret though. The heat check will still be here with NASCAR analysis every week despite baseball being back and basketball being back soon. I believe the most likely recording time will be on Thursday morning. So make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed to get these podcasts whenever they go live along with the solo shot along with the Daily ISO by Tom Vecchio and that comes back. PGA podcast still chugging along and a couple of UFC's podcasts sprinkled in there as well. So a lot of stuff coming up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed make sure you are subscribed to that. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer. Right on the video side of things here today. Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in. I appreciate once again your patience and your flexibility with me last week. We are back for the long call now looking forward to a lot of sports. Hopefully things start off on the right foot on Thursday night. Talk to you again soon. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.