 Good morning and welcome to the week ahead video with me David Madden Today's date is Friday the 10th of January 2020 and the time has just gone 1110 GMT I'm looking ahead to next week, which is Monday the 13th of the Friday the 17th of January Now before we discuss some of the big economic and corporate events of next week Let's just take a moment to take stock of what's happened in the past few days It's been obviously a very turbulent week between the US and around tensions, but a couple of days ago President Trump made it very clear that he's not looking for an all-out conflict with Iran and that had a Dramatic impact on the financial markets. We saw a complete turnaround and a big reversal of What was going on? While tensions were high stocks were lower gold was higher the Japanese yen was higher and of course oil was higher post-president Trump's Strong suggestion that he wasn't going to be looking at the start of fight with Iran We saw gold tumble. We saw the US. We saw the Japanese yen fall. We saw we saw oil fall and conversely we saw Stocks rally the stock 600 without the in Europe would not to hit a fresh record high We also saw record highs and some of the major make US indices as well So sentiment is clearly very much in risk-off mode But I'm obviously recording this video about two hours and 20 minutes ahead of the US down from parents reports So obviously sentiment could change between now and things going out But at the time being it seems that the US US Iran issue has been put to bed obviously things could change but at the time being that's the way it's looking So obviously keep in mind what's going on between Washington DC and Iran over the next few days But it's also worth noting That China is going to come back into the fold next week on the 15th We're going to have the official signing of the US of phase one of the US China trade Talk trade deal and I suspect we could see the wider optimism Continue on the road without the optimism that you know so US stock markets push higher in late December and into early 2020 But what I suspect is going to be a bigger problem down the line It's going to be phase two. It's all what a good signing phase one and Chinese government Looking to ramp up their imports of US agricultural goods, which is great for US farmers but at some point they're going to come on to more trickier topics such as The Beijing government funding Chinese company Chinese companies in China and also things like intellectual property rights of you know International and particularly US firms operating in China. What's going to happen there? Intellectual property rights. These are much trickier much more complicated much more serious topics and even though I suspect President Trump is going to start using this as a way of Boasting his own popularity by you know by doing kind of round two of the US China trade war Showing the American voters that he's out there, you know doing trying to put America no putting America first You know but that that would be looking at garnered support with the American voters because keep my president Trump is looking to get reelected in November But I suspect we know we could see it for a shakedown in a global stock market in the most common It depends whenever president Trump looks to raise the issue of phase two He may like to do it shortly after phase one which he suggested before but then again, he doesn't know is Stick to his word So being very mindful that whenever phase one is all the way that leaves the gate open for phase two to come on the horizon That could be in a few days. It could be in a few months But I suspect that's gonna be on the cards also a wider theme for 2020 I would be surprised if it takes to kind of economic fight to the EU as well for the same reasons He looks he was you know, he wants a scenario whereby he's looking at getting a better deal for America But I also think towards the back end of the year He looked to actually wrap things up just because he would I love If you're tweeting about the US stock markets achieving all-time highs in advance of the voters going to the polls So it's gonna be in the you know next few months time We could be lower, but towards the back end of the year. We could be higher. That's what I suspect These are the kind of it kind of probably the biggest issue to look at to next week We also have some economic indicators We got a China such as retail sales and industrial production This it gives a good indication of the goodness how these are panning out in the Chinese economy the latest gonna say the likes of Manufacturing the service figures have been alright. Nothing impressive, you know, okay manufacturing is Appeared to be better than the manufacturing in the US and Germany We're also gonna have an update From the from the US page book that's gonna give us a snapshot of what's going on with the state of The US economy next week. That's on the 15th We have some UK economic indicators coming out on Monday the 13th Which is the manufacturing production and industrial production Nothing really overly important there, but it gives indication of the state of the health of the UK economy We have a couple of earnings numbers out from the UK next week on the 14th We have Q1 figures from boohoo on the 15th We have Q4 figures from person in the house builder and on the 20th We have Q apologies on the 16th on the 16th of January. We have Q3 figures from Whitbread You know the the retail sector is gonna be and the kind of leisure sector is gonna be very much in focus for the for traders seeing us we had some not so let's mix updates in terms of Corporate earnings in relation to say JD sports and super try today So keep an eye on what's going on with the UT and retail sector by and large is it hasn't been great Also at the back end the next week. We have Delta Airlines Report their figures next week on Tuesday the 14th and Trot next week US bank earnings will be in focus like said JP Morgan Chase and city group as well as Well as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo Now we're gonna do now is take a quick look at some of the major markets this equity markets to see how things are planning out So we take a look at the broad strokes the wider picture since mid-December the footsie 100 has been pushing higher a late December hit its highest level since kind of June-July Late no late July things. So things are looking a fairly good shape on that front And if we manage to pull back most of the gains most of the ground that was lost recently So if you do manage to take out the December high we could then be looking at retesting the highest achieved in July about the in around 7,731 The the German market by contrast is in far better shape not too far off. Well, basically it's essentially in a two-year high On the on the tax we're currently expected the tax is currently trading in around 13,535 there they're about we can see here that we've managed to regroup all the ground That was lost recently when I'm you know back basically back essentially on a two-year high Levels lasting in January 2018. So if we do press on higher from here We can really get targeting 13,600 and any kind of that level is taken out We then kind of it's be quite likely we would have paved the way for further gains to be made If you do see any kind of pullbacks Decent pullbacks in the tax we could see support commit to play from this blue line here the fifth of the moving average in Around 13,200 under shivered when it's equal consolidation in that area But also keep in mind during the radiant tensions with the aggressive moves below So it's only if you have a major sell-off We look you're taking off these lows. I should that be the case below of mid-December in around 12,885 there they're about could they commit to play it from there? Looking at what's going on on the S&P 500 S&P 500 lack of an all-time high yesterday. We're expecting to open when the cash market gets underway And if you are to open at a new all-time high we're calling it 3,283 US stock markets are doing very well the trend is through to the upside should we go beyond You should get to this to try and continue you coming into everything 3,290 and then 3,300 will be the next big cycle of psychological number to keep an eye out on It's not a really if I'm a major shake-up in mark in the price action On the back of the payrolls report potentially you could see the market head back toward this zone here of this north of 3,240 Perhaps three thousand two hundred and fifty five there they're about But Sony or Sony really if you're gonna take out this low here the low third of a January the 8th in around 2,181 could then we begin to be worried about you know the recent body trend But like I said, it's so strong even if you go below that support could easy come into play from the moving average in here now the reason why I talked about the fuzzy the DAX and and the It's me if I found it One of the tenants doll theory is that the averages must be from each other and what we saw there was they're all moving in the same direction And essentially with that here like what that says is that you could if the market is moving a certain direction If similar markets to are also moving in the same direction You can be more confident at the wider trend is going to continue So we saw here that the SP 500 or the strongest the DAX is probably very very well Underperforming but they're all moving higher so sentiment global stocks it appears to be on the upside Conversely, we've seen a move to the downside in gold recently because risk sentiment has turned to a very much risk on favor So we're seeing here after hitting After hitting a multi-year high here in Wednesday, we saw a sharp reversal of fortune for gold You know receive the market push lower This was a very you know is this driven on the rate and tension with the tension the tension that come off and long wicks Is just major in decision the wider upper trend can be ignored But if you do have a strong job job support, we could see for and strongly a starter that could impact gold We could see the market be pushed down towards this area here 15 30 or perhaps 15 20 And it's only really a things really turn off for gold We're looking any back towards the cycle and support 1500 we should the wider upper trend continue We could be lucky heading back north of 1600. Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you. Thank you for listening and thank you very much