 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me Dave Madden. Today's date is Monday the 19th of November 2018 And the time is just gone 1125 GMD We've had a positive session in Asia overnight I want to see the positive positive start to the European session this week. There are several factors going on It's pretty much a continuation of what we've done last week uncertainty around Brexit uncertainty around The U.S.-China trade relationship and also certainly in relation to the Italian budget Theresa May is still in in a It's still in the Prime Minister ship roll Adults she appears to be on on shake ground, but there's little kind of speculation circulating in relation to a leadership bid But what once again For the time being it clears that this may is going to be staying in number 10 Dallas Street for the near term In relation to the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China tension there's still a bit on the high side No kind of further Resolution to that but later this month China and the United States will be sitting down to have this have a discussion relation to trade at the GS over 20 G summer 20 on top of that the The administration in Rome it only a few tweaks to their proposed budget deficit proposed Budget plans for 2019 which were forwarded to the European Union Another bold effect to be is in buses called whether they actually want to press ahead and actually find the Italian government for essentially breaking the rules in relation to running budget deficits or increasing their budget deficit That's also playing on a veteran's minds even though all of these issues really haven't actually kind of dented They're sensitive this morning These are all issues that are kind of bubbling in the background to be fair We haven't had much actual progress from these issues in the last number of sessions So it's impacted the stock market so far, but it is looming over at the markets So I do now take a look at some of the major markets and see how things are playing out Starting off with the first 100. I'm a tension looking at a weekly chart on the first 100 Because I want to discuss this red line here at the 200 week moving average as you can see here The two week moving average actually a decent support Back here and back in March at the beginning of this year and even though it has traded below it in recently a Few weeks ago that should move back above it and we're still holding above the two week moving average Which comes to play at 69 at 65 While we hold north of that line Of the other metric is likely we could see the at the market push on higher from here And if it does we could be looking any upwards this area here at 7,220 or 7,250 The 200 week moving average is important because as as doubt theory tells you The averages must confirm each other and so we also be keeping an eye on the two week moving average for the DAX to your market As you can see here, this is the weekly chart on the Germany 30 the DAX Look this red line here is the 200 week moving average as you can see here It's really below it trade up above it and the recent sessions that should start training back below it again So it is a bit of a negative sign that the DAX is below is to the week moving average We also have the keep money at the foot 200 just above it's to move the average So the average is kind of you know, I call it to doubt theory should be from each other If both markets are above their respective two week moving averages You can be more confident markets gonna bounce back if both are below you can be more confident We're gonna see further losses, but if one's above the ones below it was just investors are a bit uncertain While we were in below the 200 week moving average on the DAX it is likely we could see further losses from here And if you do see the market fall off from here We could be looking any back down towards the October lows or perhaps even down as as low as the 11,000 Take a look at this this this chart here We could see we've seen a nice assess a nice series of lower highs all along here We could draw a trend line resistance Along here at actually a dude on a daily chart Actually because more clear if you take a line from the high in June to the high in July to the high in September We can see a nice series of lower highs. So DAX is firmly in It's our trend if you do manage to press on our here we could be looking heading up towards the kind of 12,000 mark actually the 12,000 mark would be there. They're about where the potential or the potential for Resistance when I should come to play so and he moves to the upside in the end in the DAX may run to resistance at 12,000 and if you can see continuation of the recent downward trend that we've been in we can really carry that down towards 11,000 Taking a look now at the American markets, which are in far better shape starting off the Dow Jones Take a look here in the daily chart I've drawn low between the lows of February March April May if you get this trend line long here and notice It has a fairly decent It's been well respected Try 2018 granted. We did have when the market it didn't have an aggressive sell-off in October It did actually try to blow it but notice. I didn't actually manage to put They the following the following session it didn't manage to actually close above it and since then the market as Has a decent of bounce back the market of this valley here give back some of the ground that lot It gave back some of the ground it made but it's back above this red line here to the day moving average Which comes into play at 25,123? It's looking while it holds above this trend line things are looking We could see for the gains we made that will be an optimistic sign While we hold above this red line here at the two day moving average that that also be an optimistic sign So if you press on higher from here, if you were looking at retesting the August highs So you have the October highs rather this high here Which comes to play at 26,278 and then if you go beyond that we'd be good looking at it towards Near HD 27,000 mark, which was a record high That was a set back in October if the market doesn't want to turn over on something yet yet again And we fall back blows in the 25,000 mark support might come into play from this trend line here That would be going to play in around 24,530 550 regions some in around here and a break below that Good point of further losses as I could take us back down towards the psychology important 24,000 level But speaking of the the averages must confirm each other And I'll talk about the trend line support with the play on the SP 500 and as we've as we just discussed Try line support is coming to play on the Dow Jones And if you draw a low between the lows of the SMB hundred of the lows of February 2016 with the lows of November 2016 we get this trend line here and we can see it was actually kind of almost like perfectly respected back in Late October when we had the fairly aggressive market set off So the market bounce right off that trend line there So we can take that as a positive sign that we're we've held above the trend line and while the SMB 500 holds above its trend line support and the Dow Jones holds above its channel support We can be more confident both markets are going to move on higher So service duration will provide the market bounce off the trend line support a rallied Rallyed higher pull back some of the ground that lost Between September and October. It's managed to give back some of those gains And of course you were back below the two-day moving average on the S&P 500 The dirty movie average this red line here, which comes to play at 27,000. Sorry 2764 we're back below that but we are holding above the psychology important 2700 mark so While we hold north of the trend line support It's likely we could see further we could see the wide ruffle trend continue But also it would that'll be it would be helpful every helpful if the Dow Jones were to remain above this 200 Above this channel support as well So at the S&P 500 does plan to push on higher from here But you'll be looking at retesting the recent line which basically kind of almost runs perfectly into this the 100 day moving average at 2822 so actually it's fairly decent positions if you press on higher above that you can be looking headed towards this level here We did the load here of mid-september which come to play at 2866 and then if you go beyond that we can be looking at retesting the all-time highs in around the 2934 region And he moves to the downside should you break below the trend line support like that could point for the losses And then of course if you could be like a support come to play at 2600 and then a break below that could take us back down towards the the February lows which come to play in a 2532 look now what's going on in the commodity space taking a look at With the gold market so gold that I've already aggressive sell off between April and August and market has managed to bounce back Some of the ground but it's been a bit shaky recently because it's been a fairly strong inverse relationship between the gold market and the US dollar So that's what the gold market is appears to be kind of trying to have another push hired another push out of us Another push higher, and if it does match to push out higher from here We keep looking in retesting the late October high of 1243 and if we go beyond that we can look ahead towards this metric here 1265 should we turn lower again and It's a bit could be support might come into play in around this area here at 1200 and then a break below that could bring the Mid-Mid October low so the mid-September low of 1180 into play and a break below 1180 could take us back down towards 1160 The level not seen since the middle of August I'll now take a look at what's going on in the oil market starting off with Brent crude oil So Brent crude oil is at a fairly aggressive sell-off. I'd say the least For early October until now so it's been a huge sell-off all the way down here We have seen some of the ground Managed to actually be recouped and as the market's moving higher here We can notice on the on the MACD indicator. We can see that that negative into this folding So as the market's moving higher negative into this fall So we can be more confident that this that this kind of upward move is going to continue But you manage to press on higher from here We keep looking at the resistance coming to play in around the $69 in mark area here or the 70 mine $70 per barrel mark in around here And if you go beyond that the next year to keep in our for will be this red line here at the 200 day moving average at 64 spot 14 and notice our active resistance In early November and also actors for decent support back in early August so if a metric Or a level has been important in the past it makes it all the more likely it will be important again in the future Although there are no guarantees if market does turn over on itself again. It takes out that yeah takes out the the lows in earlier early November 64 spot 63 recouping any back down towards 60 63 spot 32 Back down towards this area here 62 62 dollars per barrel for for Brentford all Take a look now at WTI WTI is even is in even worship Then then Brentford so once again the 30 aggressive sell-off notice how in a trader he traded traded lower It traded below that the utility moving average this red line here And then I'm actually gonna bounce back up into it acting as resistance And I was only the kind of them the lower high before another aggressive move to the downside so The market is kind of creeping creeping higher here if you do see the market getting to push out higher It can run into resistance in around 60 dollars a barrel that if you go beyond that is 62 50 may act as May act as resistance and then For beyond there we could be looking at the utility moving average at 67 spot 38 acting of resistance As I said previously on the Brentford chart if a metric is acted as a resistance and or support in the past It makes them more likely we could see it again in the future But once again if the market does turn over itself and take out the the recent lows The recent lows of 54 spots 73 we could be looking heading back down towards this area here 52 spot 53 and then if you go below that we could really head back towards $50 per barrel Take a look now Euro dollar So you're not at a fairly aggressive sell-off between April and August and I'm actually a bit of a decent enough come back Once again the kind of the power of the US dollar because that appears that they were going to have a rate rise in December And we could see some interest rent hikes in the Fed in 2019 coupled with Major uncertainty in relation to the potential standoff between Rome and Brussels over the Italian budgets at that spot pressure of the Euro in fact the Euro only last week fell back to a level that was last seen in June 2017 so given an indication of actually how much the market actually fell We had this set off last week. So it's it would appear that your daughter It's kind of falling back into the wider up wider downward trend Let's get that began back in April. If you do look to kind of continue to if you do look to Remain in the downward trend and should we take out the last week's low in on the kind of 112 kind of 15 regional But could be looking heading back down towards This area here in that one one spot 1110 And that if you go below that we could really head back down towards the 110 mark Anyway, to the upside may run it in resistance at this area here one spot 1510 or one spot 15 It actually varies decent support and resistance in the last few months So it makes it likely that we could see acting as resistance again in the near term Taking a look at a pound dollar. Obviously the British pound has been dragged around by the situation in relation to Brexit. So Traders are spending less time looking at the economic indicators of the UK Even though that's been pretty good and by and large they've been better than what we've seen of the eurozone But it's all the brexit uncertainty has been gonna have been dragon starting around I've taken a look here at the price action in the last few weeks We've seen a nice series of lower highs here I see that the high in November failed to take out the high in October and I have October failed to take out the High in September, so we're seeing a nice series of lower highs Although we're not necessarily seeing a series of lower lows But because the skew is to the downside and while we remain south of the kind of psychology important 130 mark Which comes into play in around here? We could see further losses on a pound dollar. I should we gonna push on lower from here We could make a target in the August low at one spot 26 10 And then if you go below that we could be looking any back down towards this area here at one spot 25 90 Any moves to the upside if you take out 130 we could make any back down for up towards the November high of spot of one spot 31 74 and then if you go beyond that we can really go towards the one spot 32 region I Take a quick look now at the week ahead and the week ahead can be found on a website if you go to the CBC markets calm and Under the news and analysis section. You'll find this article Is the week ahead article so looking ahead at the major corporate and economic events of this week So tomorrow we have easy jet out for your figures out Also tomorrow we have the UK inflation hearings hearing support also tomorrow on Tuesday, we have the Claysdale Yorkshire banking group have their funding numbers coming out tomorrow fairly busy the day tomorrow as we also have Best Buy and Target have quarterly numbers coming out on Wednesday. We are first-time figures from Babcock On Wednesday, we also have quality results from Sears on Friday. We have the flash manufacturing services PMI reports for Germany and for France and then a Friday We also have Canadian CPI and retail sales and as it is worth noting that Thursday coming up is a Thanksgiving in the US so we could so some US markets will be some US markets will be shot On top of that, we can see no very low volatility In basically global financial markets on Thursday, then also keep mind we view it we've the Black Friday It's a big day for retail in America So keep an eye on the US retail stocks and also European retail stocks as it become more popular on this side of the Atlantic It's also worth pointing out on our trading platform You keep up with kind of daily with daily updates and our intraday updates on the insights section section Which can be found here if you click on this market type here insights Other market pulse is a second option down and then also if the third option down is the chart forum Which is the section here whereby? Self and some of the other other analysts will have this to a screenshot of a particular chart by some commentary on it Invasion to production prices we could see in the future and it isn't just if anyone with an account can update chart form So even clients feel free to actually update that and we can actually interact and I have a discussion relation What do you think certain price action could be? That's it in terms of actual video before I go if you do have any comments you want to make on this video or any of the other videos So we have conducted here CMC markets, please feel free to leave a view on Google abuse. That's all for me to speak Thank you very much