 Tuesday night's daily fantasy baseball site is headlined by a couple of guys who gotten off to really impress the starts in 2023 with those guys being Justin Steele and Joe Ryan. They've got the highest salaries but they are there for a reason. Our job for today is to decipher which one of these guys is off to the more sustainable start, which of them is in a better matchup, better pitching conditions and who should rank highest for our fan duo lineups for tonight. We'll dive on in, break that down and get you ready for Tuesday night's slate. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire here to break down Tuesday's 90 game in May in Slate with lock set for 7 0 7 p.m. Eastern for today. Just two weather notes before the slate and both those happen to be in the games that Joe Ryan and Justin Steele are starting. The first one is in Chicago for the Cubs and the Padres. It is just 42 degrees there, which is obviously a downgrade for batters to begin with. But also winds are in from center at nine miles per hour. So it is a significant downgrade to bats there and a big upgrade for pitchers. And maybe we'll talk about that later on in Minneapolis for the twins and the Yankees temperatures are 48 degrees. So downgrade to bats there. So both guys in good pitching conditions, but Steele gets the advantage of winds in as well or break down what all that means here in just one second. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, wherever you get your podcast, PGA podcast with myself and Brandon Godiva is back for today, breaking down the Mexico open. That'll be up in your feeds later on today. Check that out there. But just make sure you're subscribed, whether it be on the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed or over on the Fandall YouTube page. If you like what you hear, give us a thumbs up on YouTube or leave us a five star rating over on Apple podcasts. The NBA playoffs are here and you can get in on the action right from first tip with Fandall right now. All customers can get a no sweat, same game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs. That's right. Just place a three plus leg, same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any NBA playoff game and you'll get bonus bets back if you don't win. There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sports book, head to the Fandall app and get a no sweat, same game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs. Fandall official sports betting partner on the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states. Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Bonus issued is not with trouble. Bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat restriction. Supply C terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Massachusetts. Hope is here gambling help line MA.org or call you 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in New York. 1-877-8 Hope and wire text. Hope and why in Arizona, 1-800 next step or text next step to five three, three, four, two in Connecticut. 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana. 1-800 nine with it in Wyoming and Kansas. 1-800-522-4700 and Kansas KS gambling health.com. Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help.org in West Virginia. Go to 1-800 gambler.net pitching preview for this Tuesday main slate Justin Steele comes in with the highest salary on Fandall. He is $11,400 fall by Joe Ryan at 11,000 Nesta Cortez facing Ryan is 10 five with Charlie Ward in 98 Eric Lauer against Tigers in 93 with Griffin canning Mike Clevenger and Ryan Nelson as the others at $8,000 or higher. Now as alluded to earlier on the weather in Chicago is great for pitching and we got a guy here who has shown I would say both this year and last year that he can shove and I'm going to make Justin Steele my top guy as a result of that weather, putting him just a hair ahead of Joe Ryan. Now the matchup for Justin Steele is pretty tough here facing the Padres and it was a tough matchup before for another Tate's junior came back, but it just really tough overall a 113 WRC plus against lefties on the current active roster since the start of last year. And that's with Tate's not being involved inside that equation, but Steele has proven himself in tough matchups already so far in 2023. He faced the Dodgers on the road two starts ago and in that game he had eight strikeouts in seven innings of one run ball. He had a 15.8% swing and strike rate. So he shut them down tough matchup. I would say the Padres and their current state might be a bit tougher, but it was a good showing for Steele who is now at home in good weather. And this is not a surprise. Steele has been pitching well for a pretty long sample now. We have 13 starts on Steele with fewer sinkers in his repertoire. And in that time he has a 3.44 skill interactive ERA with a 28% strikeout rate and great batted ball data checks every box in that regard. Now again back at home pitching in great weather. So outside of the matchup I don't find a lot of things that scare me with Steele here in the matchup is mitigated a bit by the weather. So sure in a vacuum the Padres should probably scare us right now, but when they're hitting in 42 degree temperatures winds blowing in against a guy who has done a good job with batted ball suppression. I'm going to rank Justin Steele as my number one pitcher on the main slate. With that said Joe Ryan is right behind him. I'm going to put Ryan second. He's also in a tough spot, but for him it's for two separate reasons that the matchup for him is difficult. The first one is that he's facing the Yankees, which is never fun, even with their lack of depth in the in the lineup right now. But the second thing is Ryan just saw the Yankees. So they're familiar with what he does and he is a guy that lets up a lot of hard contact. There are a couple reasons to be concerned here and there are pretty obvious paths to failure associated with this profile. But in that one game Ryan was awesome and he's been great all year long. He had 10 strikeouts across seven innings of one run He had a 16.3% swinging strike rate. So pitched really well against the Yankees in New York and now is at home again in good weather. Ryan is a different pitcher this year. He's added a splitter to his repertoire and that's pushed his swinging strike rate for the full year up to 13.8% across four starts. He has a 3.2 for ERA, 3.06 skill interactive ERA and a 31% strikeout rate. And again he's at home pitching. So there is risk here because they just saw him. Ryan does to let up hard contact and they're good offense. And that's why I as both have similar upsides and I'd rather take the same side with Steele while both getting getting advantage or access to that same ceiling. But the similar upside discussion also helps Ryan in the spot if he winds up being a bit overlooked as a result of the repeat matchup. So I'm fine going Ryan. I just want to prefer Steele by a bit. To me they're a 1A, 1B situation. Both of them are awesome but with this being a repeat matchup and with Steele having the wind blowing in I will go Steele pretty good 1A and then Joe Ryan pretty good 1B. As far as the value play for tonight goes I actually want to go back to Wrigley Field. Blake Snell is the guy facing the Cubs on the opposing side of Steele and Snell has had a rough start to this year with a lot of walks as usual but I think this is a good situation to target him in. The Cubs not a big walk team 6.9% walk rate on their active roster since the start of last year. They also don't hit a lot of fly balls. The fly ball rate also matters a bit less with the winds in and the temperatures being low. So you're getting a low walk team that doesn't put the ball in the air a lot and is playing in in offense that is not suitable for fly balls. That's kind of the perfect setup for Snell and he might need that right now because he's struggling so far. 6.00 ERA 24% strikeout rate and a 15% walk rate. That's really really tough. Now to Snell's defense there have been a couple rough opponents in there. He had the Braves twice, the Mets once, and that's not really a situation where you expect a lot of success. He did face the Rockies in his first start. That's a better matchup and Snell had 9 strikeouts there but he didn't finish 5 innings. So I think the 9th strikeout says to me that he still has a path to upside and his odds of reaching that upside increased in good weather for pitching. I have Snell projected for 6.5 strikeouts. That ranks second on the slate behind just Joe Ryan and it's actually ahead of Steele but I like Steele a lot more because he's better in other areas willing enough to spend up for him whereas Snell's salary is low but will I have Snell my player pool? Yeah I think so. I think it makes a lot of sense for 76 and I think that he's very much a player we can get on board with. So to me even accounting for salary it's going to be Steele 1, Ryan 2 and then Snell 3. All three guys very worthy of spots within our player pools for tonight. Luckily all the bad weather is bad weather for hitting is where you find all the good pitchers. So we don't have to deal with that as far as stacking. Stacking is a lot easier. So let's start things off in Atlanta where temperatures are a decent amount higher than they are in the other places. Atlanta temperatures tonight I guess 58 or sorry 60, 67. So not terrible but also not phenomenal by any means but it's high enough for us to feel good about the Braes. The Braes are facing Brian Hoeing tonight who's looked good in AAA to open this year like really good but it's just three starts and he wasn't quite as hot there last year and I think we should give the Braes a look even while acknowledging that there is risk here given how Hoeing is pitched in AAA. It's a total of 17 and one-third innings for Hoeing in AAA this year. He has a 30% strikeout rate and a 3% walk rate while getting a lot of ground balls. The ground ball part was there last year too but the strikeouts are new because in AAA last year Hoeing had a 6.3% swing and strike rate and it was 4.5% in a small sample in the majors and he led up a lot of loud contact there too even if it was on the ground. So I'm not fully convinced the strikeout stick both because of his track record but also because the swing and strike rate for Hoeing in AAA this year is just 11.7% so tells me a lot of strikes looking which can be sustainable if you're nasty enough you can definitely make that work you can get by on that but I don't want to assume that he will suddenly be that after just 17 innings in AAA. Now he's facing a tough offense the Braes missing some pieces and it has hurt them for sure but still a 104 WRC plus versus righties since the start of last year so this will be a good test for Hoeing of whether he's actually turned a corner this year and if he is a different pitcher than what he was in the past he may be want to give him that credit that possibility but I think the Braes worth a look even with that being acknowledged now von Grissom got the night off last night for the Braes we have not seen him click so far this year at least not in the majors but in the minors before his promotion a 220 ISO he was running down there a lot and in the majors at least he's not striking out his strikeout rate is 11% so the bad of all data is underwhelming but he is putting the ball in play he is very good speed and Grissom did hit for power on AAA before being called back up I think that's enough for us to give him a sniff hoping to snag him before he hits his stride I do need to save salary with steel and Ryan being very both very high salary for today so that's another part of the pillow Grissom whose salary is $2,400 probably gonna bat seventh night which is not super super appealing but I still think he's very much in play so if you want to value on the Braes let's hope that Grissom is back in there for tonight if he is I'd be very okay riding him for $2,400 the brewers tonight facing Spencer Turnbull I assume though the roof closed in Milwaukee which would heat things up and make it a much better park factor for tonight and for Turnbull it seems like he's trending up the past few starts and much better than his first two off of Tommy John but assuming the roof is closed I think the brewers are in a good spot for stacking tonight up to a four start sample on Turnbull back off his surgery and he is a 5.36 skill interactive ERA his expected ERA is 6.44 he's letting up a 40% hard hit rates with a 34% fly ball rate that fly ball rate is the reason that we're going to have the brewers below the Braes because that number 34% is not super high to begin with and I think Turnbull could go back to being a ground ball pitcher which is what he was before his injury if he does do that it would hurt the appeal in the brewers because Turnbull in other areas is better than Howang who also does get some ground balls but that ground ball rate has actually been going down the past two starts the two starts where Turnbull is pitched well so obviously it didn't hurt him but it has the potential to do so and does lend itself towards more upside for daily fantasy we did see Turnbull let up a couple barrels for the Guardians last time out he let up one of the Jays two to the Red Sox he's facing the brewers here they have a 177 ISO against varieties which means they have some power can do some damage here so I have reservations I think that Turnbull was a pretty decent pitcher before his surgery and he can't get some ground balls but those reservations are not enough to push the brewers out of the stacking discussion for me and I'll put the number two here behind the braids the one bummer is that we do want to favor lefties against Turnbull and there are a lot of really good hitters and the brewers who are righties so righties to las Christian Yellich totally fine Yellich with the speed to las the power but after that I want to start to turn towards the righties I think William Contreras should start it for power here pretty soon just a one-way ISO right now but he's making solid contact he's not striking out I think he's a good value at 26 even though it does force you to occupy both your catcher slash first base and utility if you use Contreras alongside to las which I'd like to so it's a bummer to lose that flexibility but I think it's a worthwhile trade-off for tonight as for a third stack I think that for Mike Clevenger's past two starts the opposing team has been the third ranked offense for stacking both times and I'm going to keep the trend rolling for today I like the blue jays especially if they don't want to catching a ton of attention for daily fantasy for today I think there's a good chance that they do because they have a pretty high implied total but I still think that there's wiggle room to feel good about them for stacking even if they do wind up being a bit popular the reasons for those first two stacks the reasons I went against Clevenger those two times are still very much in play where Clevenger's underlying numbers this year are rough across four starts he has a 3.26 ERA but his skill interactive ERA is 5.67 and his expected ERA is 6.24 so he's gotten pretty lucky in his results those numbers are poor due to bad plate discipline numbers and Clevenger's also letting up a 45% fly ball rate obviously with the low ERA he's worked his way around it but the Phillies did get to him a bit last week they had two home runs three earned across just three innings the pirates scored four runs against him now he has to face the Jays we have a 117 WRC plus against Rides I'm assuming the roof will be closed here as well and assuming that's the case it's a good park for hitting and I think we should keep on stacking against Clevenger until Clevenger improves or the regression fully hits so not going to be overlooked by any means but the the blue Jays to me a good spot to go for stacking for today now within the blue Jays stacks George Springer didn't start last night came out the bench hit him all pretty well that's kind of been the story of his year because his WoB is just 257 but it's expected WoB is 346 he has a 12.7% barrel rate which is up from 8.3% last year and he is running because he has three stolen bases so when you look at the baseline numbers I kind of thought that Springer might be cooked given all of his knee injuries but he's running he is making hard contact just potentially getting a bit unlucky so I think that Springer still has juice to give us upside for DFS so Springer I initially thought I might be a bit lower on but after digging in a bit more I'm higher on him I do feel good about him for tonight so the top stacks for today three B's the Braves Berwers and the blue Jays things to watch Mason Miller making his second start tonight for the A's and I'm not going to get there for DFS but that's not due to skepticism around the talent if you watched some of the stuff against the Cubs it was pretty sick it's more about volume we've seen Miller not pitch a lot in the minors so far because of injuries primarily and he went 81 pitches in his first start I haven't project for 85 for today now he could go beyond that but with all the injuries I think that 85 is probably about right I will bump it if they let him go longer going forward but for right now I need to see more of him before I ride with it so excited to watch him again because he was super fun in that first start but need to see that pitch count higher before I buy full yet I'm not opposed to the Mets for stacking they're facing Josiah Gray who is a radically different pitcher now than he was last year towards the end of last year added a sinker and it did help his fly ball right help his hard hit rate and that's carried over to this year with even much better I would say numbers in those regards but Gray very few strikeouts he's facing a very tough team today with a 123 WRC plus against Reides that the Mets WRC plus the top number on the Slate so I think they great out well enough for us to consider them even though I respect what Gray has done think he has improved that I think that we can still at least consider going at them here finally I don't mind one offs again if you like any Tigers the if you like any Tigers part there plays a pretty big role because you might not they're facing Eric Lauer he's a lefty who lets up a lot of fly balls a lot of hard contact he's always good for opposing batters so Spencer Torkelson might be fun Javier Baez has okay numbers against lefties truly hideous against Reides hideous against most people but better against lefties at least so I think you can consider those guys if you need a one-off you need to say some salary I think they're at least in the consideration set due to the matchup that they have finally let's go to our Dinger calls for today sticking out there in Milwaukee for the boring one Roddy Tilesz facing Tor- facing Turnbull Turnbull's ground alright does go down against lefties letting up a lot of hard contact right now Tilesz can mash it Rue should be closed so Roddy Tilesz the boring home run call for today the fun one kind of want to go brain and belt I've been keeping a close eye on him recently because had that like ridiculously awful start of the year we're con with tons of strikeouts they gave him a couple of days off and have kind of been giving him more days off sporadically here recently and it seems like it's helping strikeout right down to about 27% since April 11th when he first got that that extended day off had three hard hit balls last night with no strikeouts so it's possible he may be turning things around salary is $2400 so I'll at least give it a shot so the home run calls for today will go with Roddy Tilesz the boring one and brain and belt for the fun one that is all that we have here for today on the solo shot as mentioned that we are back once again later on today to break down the Mexico Open from a PGA DFS perspective make sure you're subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed to get that as it is posted if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today good luck to you with your NLB DFS lineups and we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Wednesday's slate this has been the solo shot right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network