 You know look at Meta right this thing is an inch away technically of going all the way back down to this 153 level again You saw a short-term exploration. This is where Welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and And own your future Hey guys, good evening everybody welcome to another edition of the access of trader comm week an update show Hope everybody is having a great start to your weekend. Hope everybody had a good Trade trading week and hopefully everybody is healthy. I guess again. That's the name of the game So let's talk about the tape So we've been we've been kind of going sideways We've been watching the video for the last, you know two weeks or so you kind of know that we've been just trapped in this range here over and over and over again and The good news about this range was the longer, you know The longer something sits above a channel the higher probability it finally follows through But the problem with that is what that was on the surface was every time we had a chance to go higher We had pretty good data to go higher They kind of failed and there was no bigger. There was no bigger ball drop that if you guys remember on Was it last Thursday last Wednesday, whatever it was we had Microsoft cut guidance, right pre-market Everything started coming in very very aggressively and then slowly but surely the bulls the bid got You know the bid started appearing and the bulls, you know bought the dip right and there was no greater Data that you could possibly have gotten nothing more bullish than after a consolidation You have the arguably the the biggest and best company on the planet or at least top three To turn around Forecast lower guidance and the bulls take them the market higher But the problem was the next three days the market gave back those gains And then it started becoming a little bit of worrisome But before the worrisome part happened everybody was waiting for that CPI number, right? And slowly but surely the market started moving started moving We had some pretty decent days towards the back end of the week Wednesday and Thursday and we turn around say well probably the CPI Number will finally give us a little more clarity and the one thing that the bulls didn't do was progress on the 20-day Reclaim that they did on May the 26th And that was very very important of note because eventually Data right and eventually the reality of where we were and even again if you've been watching this video For even the last several months and I've been talking about the last five months that we lost the 50-day moving average I've been kind of reiterating the point over and over and over again We could rally as much as we want right week we could rally and we saw periods of of really good value especially right here in February right with a three-week rally and this really nice Distribution rally that we've had but at the end of the day We were still below the 50-day moving average and nothing again nothing longer term Happens if you can't reclaim the 50-day moving average because that's that's kind of the the line in the sand of Longer term sentiment the five days the shortest term sentiment the 50 days gives you a wider range of a longer term Sentiment at the end of the day. It's exactly what happened Off the rally that we had in March We had this rally the bulls just couldn't Just couldn't really progress to the next level of supply and the end of the day You kind of know what happened on Thursday a big reversal on Thursday's session and Friday's CPI number came But the one thing, you know the one thing that I'm still a little marvel then is the reaction to the CPI Okay, and not not for stock prices from the overall data unless you've never unless you haven't been Filling up your gas tank over the last year or been to the supermarket and realize milk is not 499 anymore Milk is 1099 now, right gas prices and not 325 for premium. They're 550 for premium So unless you have been living under a rock in Main Street Main Street America even anywhere even parts of the world you kind of knew that the CPI number was going to demonstrate Higher food and energy prices. So there wasn't a shock and I think more people were shocked that we sold off Than the actual data and because if you look at what happened the previous day And this was you know, this was kind of the nail in the coffin of the bulls this one candle Okay, which was Thursday's session, you know, it's sold off and as it was down like 350 points And what this one candle did was it wiped out the distribution for the first two weeks Having its first close below the 20-day moving average, which we finally reclaimed on May the 26th That was already the bearish thing and if you know get if you follow me On social media, especially on Twitter the previous day right on that close You know, you basically said I basically said you got to be you know, you got to be sell by so I can You possibly bull but be bull buys going into Going into Friday's session and you know, the only thing that Friday did was really Exaggerate what the Thursday candle did and now we have a very very aggressive move down if you look at the week's totals Pretty, you know pretty staggering, you know, you had nearly 6% declines all across the board yet nearly 3% declines and as I actually lost Over 3% on Friday But what it did do technically speaking was set up again a date with the bottom of this channel here of 283 And again, if you believe in the theory of stocks trade from supply to supply demand to the man Well, again, here's your next demand, right? So if it stopped on Thursday right on demand and you believe in that theory then that stocks go to the next demand Well, here's the next demand of 283 283 on the blower Bollinger band and if you watched Wednesday's video We said well, I said excuse me I said at least what Wednesday did was was giving us a definitive line in the sand So if you go back to the last video before this one Was the Wednesday video? I said at least we know now definitive line in the sand was this 302 level And once it crossed that 302 at the end game short term was going to be very very challenging For the bulls we had the nasty sell-off and now we are poised for a move back to 283 and the one thing that is is Going to be kind of a counter argument from what up what I'm saying is I will say this much I was very very impressed with the smaller cap group this week Usually I don't comment on it because they usually have you know kind of a tweak run here And then like eight months later. They'll have another tweak run there But they I will say was there's been some really strong moves in the small cap sector So the one argument that you can turn around and say well How can what market sentiment be so sour? Considering people are really bidding up a lot of these small cap names And that's a very very valid argument because again at the end of the day is if there is speculation money Flowing into a specific group. Well, how can you turn around and say well? There's going to be a buyer strike in the overall market But at the end of the day Technical analysis technical analysis and as good as speculation money is right now in the smaller cap group matter of fact If you look at the IWM for example, right? They had a really really strong run a lot of strong a bigger stronger run Then in the S&P Then the Nasdaq in the last in the last three four days But you could you could quickly see what happened in the last three days So even there slowly but surely you're getting a little bit of a sour mint a sour and sentiment And now if the IWM takes out this one 77 level It's going to pretty much do the exactly the same thing that we're looking at for the S&P and the Nasdaq 100 probably getting a test back to this one 72 level and if you look at the SPX for example, right? I'm gonna look at the SPX Just want to give you the idea if you look at the SPX for example You can see exactly the same thing mirror image of the Nasdaq, right? It lost that 40 39 on a close and now we have room all the way up to all the way down to 3854 that correlates with the bottom range here on May the 20th. That was roughly 3810 so yeah, the equities you know equities going into this week You know, they're gonna need you're gonna need a really really strong move by investors to kind of shake off What happened last Thursday on Friday? Tesla after the close as I'm sure many you guys know Announced at 341 stock split, you know that the reaction was a little muted I'm not gonna lie if you look at usually when a stock comes out with a stock split You know, they usually would really take off really well And again, it was up like seven eight points after the close considering it was down 22 points You know in the regular session, that's not exactly great But again, you never know how the investors are going to look at Tesla for a split Maybe the reactions a little bit muted because it already had a recent split Well recently I feel like Austin Powers a second ago But yeah, you know, look, I think the key going into Monday session is we want to see how these stocks are gonna react personally I believe that any rally if you look at you know any tech stock and I'll show you in a second If you look at Amazon, right? If you look at the 60 minute view on Amazon. Oops. Excuse me. E-signal Still hasn't really correlated here since the split but I'll show you here in a second. Give me a second here So if you look at Amazon's chart, right? If you look, you know, any single time now to hit supplies get rejected I tell you one thing really aggressive ever since the split you got really aggressive put buying coming in for next week They were coming for the 105 puts that were coming for the 103 puts in very very Aggressive size. I personally think if it starts losing Friday's channel You could get a move back down to that 103 105 love a big big institutional money flow on Amazon even You know even a name like for example Like Facebook meta, right? I don't freak anybody out, right? So meta You know, look at meta, right? This thing is an inch away Technically of going all the way back down to this 153 level again. You saw a short-term expiration This is where you you know, this is where you kind of say follow the smart money or follow the institutional money They were coming for this week's and next week's 155 puts on meta and then look and this is where they're getting these bets from that's the bottom of the channel here of The linear regression line a name like Apple for example as well, right? I mean all these stocks are breaking down Pretty pretty aggressively and it kind of still goes into the theory of this was just a bear market rally Just the same way we had all the way going back to January from March 15 that ended into supply and unfortunately this last round of rallies just just wasn't strong enough great consolidation After the reclaiming of the 20-day moving average was you can possibly so you could possibly suit your eyes It just wasn't strong enough to get that next move forward and now we're getting back to the bottom of the range So you know going into this week look is it possible we have you know some sort of relief rally on Monday? Yeah I guess right, but again, you've seen such big heavy technical damage, especially last Two trading sessions that again the value now is back to the downside and you know somebody asked me on social media Are you bearish for this week? I mean, how can you if you look at charts? How can you possibly have a good a good vibe again? Remember a dead cat bounce is not the same as stock prices going higher, right? Stocks go up is completely different stocks going high You could have a stock that just lost $30 on Friday go up $6 on the day But that's apples to hand grenades and one is telling you the macro view one is telling you the micro view So we could get a dead cat bounce on Monday or Tuesday But the point is there's been so much technical damage Especially in the technology group that the value for this week at least the start of the week Will be to the downside. I think I have pretty much a hundred percent sell buys At least setups initially going into this week to the downside. We'll see how it plays out, right? That that's the coolest part about about trading especially When you're trading day to day You could switch gears very very quickly your opinion is based on technical data Not where you think is going to go But again, it does help to have a clean pocket right a visual of what you believe can happen next And if you look at all these charts, I mean, they're setting up all the same way I like this dash. Look at that. Look at the bottom of the channel here You know if this thing starts getting down to this bottom channel and confirming this thing should go lower You know, we talked about meta, right? We talked about met a big big channel coming up here with the 155s being bet going into this week So again institutional money flow is dictating the chart price on the video got hit semi-conductors obviously Been very very weak there were the first group to roll over you could see You know, the video has a possible destination to 160 Taking a mat for example is another semi-conductor with it as well is about to break down a name like fiv e They came out with earnings, right? Came out with earnings. They defended the bottom of the channel last week on the earnings But look I mean look at this channel here if this thing starts Violating this bottom channel here. They already had a catalyst. They had a week quarter Maybe this thing starts coming in as well and docu, right? Look at docu docu got got killed on earnings, right? They were down pretty big. They defended check this out. They defended the bottom of this channel here four times I mean, that's what I'm watching for this week if this thing if this thing I'm hoping this docu has a dead cat bounce on Monday so they could get off of SSR So because if later in the week this thing starts taking down the bottom of the channel And you can see these Bollinger bands getting tighter and tighter if it starts losing this bottom Bollinger band It's gonna have a next round of selling as well. So, you know, I think the data is the data I think again, like I said, if you're living underneath a rock if you're shocked of what happened With the seat with the May CPI, you know, you know, kind of kind of unless you haven't been to a supermarket I've been to a gas station in the last, you know, six months or a year or so You kind of know what's already out there So I think people are going to look at the CPI as kind of the result of why we sold The CPI was the result of technical damage what we had on Thursday session closing below The 20 day moving average that we worked so hard to reclaim on 526 So going into this week guys, obviously any rally I have zero interest in You know until they start reclaiming if the cues can start reclaiming back 300 Then obviously we start going back at least short term to the bi-signal But anything below that again starts another cycle that ultimately at some point this week I do believe we could get a 283 area now the question is what happens if we gap down to this 283 level Right because that's always on the table. Yeah, I mean I could see a dead cat relief bounce If we gap down to 283 trap some shorts on this Bollinger Band and have a rally up, right? That becomes a whole different situation But assuming if we do gap up on Friday if do we do gap up on Monday The last thing you want to do is buy stocks pre-market or opening range highs That got destroyed on Thursday and Friday Remember again for the most basic thing of technical analysis For a stock to move higher not to go higher because people, you know, people get confused People turn around and say well If a stock goes red to green can't you buy it? Of course you can buy it but red to green is not a technical way red to green is basically Red to green that's all it is for a stock to go higher, right higher broad higher It has to take out the previous days high if the market wants to go lower It has to take out the previous days low and that's the most basic part of technical analysis So if we do have a dead cat bounce remember there's a reason why it's called a dead cat bounce Not going higher so going into this week again sell bias to start We'll see what we are the most important part is again trade both sides of the market Don't paint yourself in a corner. Don't paint yourself a bias. I'm wrong all the time, right? The key is again not to be you could be wrong as much as you want theoretically, right? With an opinion just don't be pigheaded enough and being a mule to be wrong financially, right guys? Have a great wonderful weekend get some rest Hope everybody's healthy and happy and having a wonderful summer and when god's help i'll see you all on monday. Take care