 Okay, we'll be starting about a minute It's really amazing the audience is recently. I guess you guys have don't have anything better to do No, but I'm glad you're here really Sign circle has been a wonderful place to be for 12 years now. Oh Okay, we're more advertising Plus this is a great place to Be to have virtual Socializing. Yeah. Well, that's what I thought, you know with the pandemic, but it's if people can come back to second life or Find out what 3D virtual worlds can do and with the vw best practices in Education conferences recently Okay. Hey, I am going to do both voice and Chat see if I could do that same time here So I've got a little script going most of the stuff. I will say will be in script um, so let's begin Is welcome to the sign circle for people that have been here forever and people who this may be new to um, a couple weeks ago Dr. Hendricks and it seems like quite a while if you've been in social isolation But a couple weeks ago. Dr. Robert Hendricks presented us a detailed look at what we know about the virus That's behind the current epidemic and um a lots Has happened since then So today, uh, we will revisit What's been going on with the pandemic at several levels Okay, so Now let's take a look at the future. I mean, it's kind of hard to see sometimes um what We may have ahead of us So let's take a look at the future and what we know right now what's happened what we know And how we might um know what's going on next Okay, so, uh, here's what I envisioned happening today. Uh, first of all, please Uh, no blaming In other words, I don't want to see, you know, blah blah name Or country or whatever like that because one thing to remember is that it Yes, there are influential people and such But uh, frankly, it takes millions of people to create a pandemic. It can't be started by one person And it's a very critical time to look at this whole thing today Because people are starting to be really itchy about Getting back to normal whatever that means So let's take a look at basically Oh, what the next months will look like Um, what in other words what the data says what science says What, uh, we can do the psych psychological aspects of this, uh, as far as Creating the future For those that have not Got the the note card yet. There's a there's a ball right behind the blue Circle and you can take a look at uh it and just since we are Recording the notes. Let me just put that on there for you Is go ahead and click on the ball to get some notes Thank you to widget and mark for Making that up for us Okay, today I'd like to um Take a look at three aspects of the pandemic and uh One is an update with the facts and figures. In other words, let's let's take a look at what The facts and figures say Let's take a look at then What does the data show and how reliable it is? Let's take a look at what, uh, is happening from a scientific standpoint and how does in other words How does this is the plate play out? What can we do at each? point and How are reacting? How do people think in other words what people think about science and each other Now right now my Okay, so first of all though, this isn't just a presentation. I love to have a feedback from the audience And I would like the audience to interact in other words the whole purpose of being here is not just for me I could have Put something online if all we were doing was a presentation So what I'd like you to do is if you would like Is and for people that have been in science circle presentations before they'll know this very well But the idea is please share your experiences Say things like how is it where you are? What are you doing? How do you feel about this? In other words feel free to interact in nice ways, right? Okay In other words, I already mentioned let's not blame People there's plenty of time for doing that kind of stuff. Let's take a look at what's going on Please feel free to like Share links or sources or ask questions and answer questions that people ask that sort of thing This is a wonderful time. We've got probably an international audience for sure And it's a wonderful time to be humans together and to Get through this together And we can do that. Okay, so let's take a look first of all kind of what does data show that's happening And what I'd like to do is Rather than just talk I'll show you Okay, so let's uh, so what's happened over the last few months And so let's take a look at like look at this Oh, well Yeah, that's good. I try to I try to have kind of lively Chats with my students. I teach a telecom class. I retired last summer, but I still teach classes so I've at least had some a little bit of fun with doing this. Okay, let's take a look over here Is what I've gotten that you may Have some issue with trying to follow me where the We are earthlings. Yes. We are. Okay. So where the Sound is coming from hopefully that won't cause a problem here Is I kind of show you what's going on here? But if you look um The reason why This is first of all and I actually saw this in the news But the reason why this is called anyone know? Hey, I can ask a question Anyone know why this is called co good 19? I know not everybody can hear. That's why I'm putting it to text But before I put the answer, uh, somebody tell me what why yeah, okay I actually heard in the news somewhere that somebody was saying it's the 19 Coronavirus. No, it's because They name them by the year when the first cases. So the first cases that were known anyway I got a misspell in there came out in 2019 Okay, so in 2019 Um That's yeah, absolutely. Okay. So by the way, the virus is a is actually called SARS-CoV-2 It's just it's kind of like the first SARS virus Which means you know severe acute respiratory syndrome Okay, so at the end of 2019 where I am Yeah, absolutely. That's that's why it's got a little crown looking shape kind of like the first, um Well, yeah, exactly. That's why I wanted to confirm that is because it was in 2019 That's why they call it that now. There's lots of coronaviruses and uh, dr. Hendricks a couple weeks ago explain Some of the things about yeah, why 3k problem series? Uh, which by the way, uh, uh, we could always revisit that technology is actually my background but At the end of the circle, which i'm standing on right now is for one january and actually on the 31st of december or 30 China reported to the world health organization that they had a cluster of pneumonia cases in wuhan province province and Um within the week They recognized that Uh, there was something peculiar about the, uh About the uh cases And they purchased a regular, uh pneumonia for example Now by mid january, which is the next little circle here is that, uh, other countries were starting to report in other words by here Um other countries were starting to report cases of what would be called covid 19 Now by the first of february, which is the next little circle You can see by the way the height of the circles represents what it is for you guys that are interested is the circle is in one and a half degrees is every day And uh each of the circles the height of the circles represents the number of cases that were Detected at that time so in the first of february, china had at least 12,000 cases and they're first unfortunately their first death due to complications from the disease Okay by mid february Which is the blue one because uh people were starting to notice that this was not something that was um Uh just normal for example in the united states where i am The first case was on january 20th And so by mid february several countries were starting to see spikes In the number of cases and it was kind of alarming if you remember it wasn't that long ago If you remember there were spikes in iran and in italy and places like that And so by the beginning of mars, excuse me by the beginning of march there were 88,000 Paces and it was spreading throughout the world So uh people really started to take notice of what was going on here. Okay So Uh things happened rather quickly After that is that in mid march the world health organization or who? Officially declared this a pandemic now. I think it's important to understand what a pandemic is Go over to the pandemic one here Okay, I think it's important to understand what a pandemic is Is and i'll put it up here Is a pandemic is an infectious disease That is no longer really under control and that is spreading globally throughout the world So an epidemic is local and not a pandemic Does anyone else now I like to ask questions and I like comments Is does anyone know what the other pandemic that is going on in the world right now? Official pandemic that's been going on for some time in other words a couple a few decades Not ebola ebola tends to be the reason Ebola tends to be an epidemic rather than a pandemic Is because it's highly lethal in other words the people that get it either die or Live and it isn't spread like this one and it's um Wow, I got a lot of things and and actually will you might see that right? Okay, so you have HIV and AIDS which one is AIDS is the actual disease part of that and it's still a very Infectious particularly in South Africa up to 25 percent or 29 percent in the case of women who are pregnant It can be lethal Yes, well Okay, obesity is another Okay, and yes, okay now the other things when you talk about things like meningitis and stuff notice that For example cancer is worldwide also. There's a lot of things and so Okay, and thank you Aaron. I'm not a doctor like dr. Hendricks So I do like to be if I say something wrong or say something that's not quite correct or that can be clarified Please That's one of the reasons I'd love to come to these presentations because we have people from all over the world And I learned a lot By by doing this. Okay So yes, that has not been eradicated and it's still very HIV AIDS is still a very big thing in many parts of the world with a lot of Effect, okay, so but in this case if you remember back in February People the people were still saying wow. We need to get this thing under control And of course we didn't And so it became a pandemic now things once it became one And then it really took off And I'm going to do a little magic that you can do a second life here. So I'm going to walk up to here and this is represents that Of april. Let me see. I think I need to Get to my next slide here Let me see what we've got Yeah, okay, so this is this represents what is going on now and you can see By the way, I took this information about three hours ago and the reason I had to read To revise it was because I took it last night and there were already 40,000 more deaths And and around the world and other places since last night. And so things are really taking off Significantly, okay, so by April cases of COVID-19 were increasing exponentially all over the world and we're only talking about a few A couple weeks ago And it was in the beginning of april for example that the us became the country with the most cases Only 200,000 now if you look on the board there, you'll see that where in the united states It's up to 706,000. So it went from 200,000 to 706,000 in just a couple weeks In the in the u.s Okay, in other words since dr. Hendrickson, I'm going to do one more little piece of magic here That you can do in second life. Okay, and so now we're up to Hopefully you can still hear me up here And so now we're at where we're at now in other words on the 18th of april and Just a couple weeks later from the beginning of april We're up to good. Okay. So we're up to two million or over it now You can see on on the board and as I mentioned cases in the united states have ballooned from 200,000 to 700,000 which is as much as the next four countries come by Okay, so now let's see if I can do the same thing without falling down. I had to practice this last night here And yeah, hey it worked. Okay, great Coming down. Great. Okay and so Well, that's a very good point the asymptomatic carriers and I've heard everything from quarter to 50 percent, okay So that that's rather alarming because that means that there are a lot of people Out there that have this that don't know perhaps if they have it and they may still be contagious Yeah, uh, bear a gun that's uh Uh, thank you. Okay. Now, uh, that's another story and and here again in in this particular Presentation, I don't want to name names. I mean, that's where I'm at. Okay Excuse me. It's not the virus. I just caught. Okay Okay, uh, so um The idea is what will happen next though because you could see the the figures and such But what will happen next? Well, one thing that is kind of interesting is if you don't just look at the cases Which are still going up exponentially. In other words, where will we be next? Is there is some good news in this Uh, it's always good here again I like to see yeah, uh, I hear let's see. Anybody test suggests that to a number effect. Well, that's exactly correct And we're going to talk about that here in a minute. In other words, we're going to talk about what the data can show us What kind of reliability the data shows us and that sort of thing So in many places in the world, it appears that there are new cases Uh The new cases each day may have peaked or even decreasing And to make it clear, I kind of have a model of the daily deaths since um Or the day or the daily that shouldn't say deaths. Sorry the daily cases in Italy um Okay, so let me let me show you what that would look like in other words rather than just look like at a graph I like to have this is second life after all. It's a 3d world and so We should be able to show things in 3d. So let me trot this out for just a second here and We'll take a look at at this. Okay, so What this is is this is a view and here again the heights represent the number of new cases today and um over here I am at beginning of march and then It's okay, so the trend is clear in some cases Like for example with with with here and so we're here at the beginning of march and so now within a week We're we're at this level here as far as the number of uh new cases And then wow another week. It's it's here another week It's way up here as far as the number of daily cases and then it starts to Level off of it. In other words, if you actually look at the numbers, uh, it's like wow, okay, they haven't and then the next week ooh It's actually going down and maybe stabilizing a little bit and then today in other words this in this last week We're actually seeing a trend downward for the number of new cases in Italy And you can see that here in the graph behind me as well as my little visual Uh presentation let me put this away for a second so you can see the slides Well, well, thank you. I was I was hoping that That was kind of fun. I had to rehearse a little bit and play with it, but um, it's It's it's kind of fun to do that Okay, so let me get uh seeded here and we'll get back to business um yeah But it is and and you're right in some cases looks like it's a geometrical progression And as I was mentioning the trend Is clear in some countries than others you can see on the Slide in the back that in some cases like for example, let's just take a look at the slide Is like for example worldwide that's on the bottom left there You can see that it's not going up as fast, but is it still going up or is it? It's not quite sure Same thing with the one in the united states. It's very difficult to tell what's happening. It just hasn't uh, we just haven't had In other words, it's been going up for a while. It's very hard to tell what's going on Spain which is the bottom one with the question mark next to the word what? What's going on there? In other words, it's coming down and then all of a sudden There was a little bit going up in other words are I don't know what's going on there You'd in other words you have to have more information The one in the middle there the reason I picked Italy was it was pretty clear that it's been Trending downward and in Iran. It's hard to tell on there because it looks like it's going up and then it comes down And then yeah, you would have to either do a say five-day What do they call it I'm trying to remember what the term is but basically it's a A five. Yeah, very good. I knew hey, I knew see I can always count on the audience to Rebelling etc exactly I can always count on the audience about What's going on? So now the thing is in the united states for example is because each of the states is almost like a little country in its own And because they handle things differently and have different population densities and demographics and stuff projected peaks In the different states in the united states range from the 30th of march in other words already passed To 7 may which of course isn't anywhere near And so we're kind of in the middle if you actually count the number of states that the peak has passed including today Versus the ones which they project coming up. We're about in the middle This is okay a good question is this is new Paces not deaths and I and that's a perfect segue by the way into The next thing so let me go to the next slide here Okay, so what is the data tell us? Let's take a look Let's take a look so you can read the slide as well as I can But let's take a look at some of the types of things that are that we can tell from the data Well, that's a very good question. Are we going into second? Spike and here again, I didn't prompt the audience These are great questions because I will be answering them in the presentation here. So hang loose and I will Answer your your questions not just answer them. I'll actually show you okay from the data Okay, so it's important to understand the terms and if you take a look at the terms there You can see but one of the things that we can absolutely tell Well curious minds want to know That no, no, no, no, that's that's good that that shows you guys are in other words We're all thinking alike on this thing. That's important. Remember we have a global audience here. It's not just one little place That's why I love to Come to presentations here and to share things because we do have in other words I want to know what other people are thinking Along the line and stuff Uh, well, uh are 90 percent the people complying with distancing I would say in some countries. Yes, and in other countries So it all depends on where you're at Okay So the conclusion though we can draw is that what you saw there are minimum numbers as Was yeah, and so what so what somebody put in there Are now open. Well, they're also open during spring break. So all the kids came back and infected their parents now That's not the data. That's just what I thought so Yeah, uh, well and there again. Okay here again. Let's let's try. Uh, I know we've we've mentioned texas california, florida Let's what I would like to do right at this point is go. Let's not Blame or say particular things. In other words, let's talk about the science Let's talk about the psychology, but let's not give because otherwise we'll start being putting names in there Ah, okay. So erin shared that it's really bad Just south of new york city. Okay, so let's keep it to science and to Psychology but try to avoid in other words generalize a little bit with trying to avoid the only thing i've done and I apologize if It uh, didn't measure my I mean it didn't live up my rules as I mentioned the United States But I didn't mention anything in particular. I just mentioned a general Trends and things you can see from data Okay, the other conclusion is that Conclusions are only as good as the data Okay, so Let's take a look then is how can science inform us of what we might expect in the data And how can psychology inform us? Yeah This is the science circle. However psychology is also the science of people And so well the well. No, that's that's psychology. It's it's absolutely. You're right the compulsive desire to open Up economies is definitely relevant to the psychology. So it's not just a science problem It's not just a data problem. In fact, as I mentioned before this is a pandemic is a social event not just a medical event and that people collectively and individually and Make an enormous Contribution to what happens next what is our future? Well, do we have any impulse control? I'm not sure that that but you're absolutely correct. I'm not sure Yeah So in other words, why did we have to if you think about it? Why did we why did some countries have to resort to? heavy what some people might call heavy-headed Measures the reason being is we don't have a lot of impulse control um, and we tend to and in some countries it's It's um worse than in others So for example, there are at least two countries and I won't name them I'm just saying there are two countries. You can look it up too that Have no official cases because they're not permitted to Put it in the press or use those things. So you'll see actually there's two countries big countries I'm there by the way if you actually want to know there's like 185 187 Countries in places that are infected. There's 195 countries or places In the world So there are some islands that still are not infected, but there's also two countries Which are definitely not islands that officially have no cases simply because They're not allowed to use those terms in the press or anywhere else Okay Well, and we'll talk a little bit Don't mention countries Okay, but that's actually not one of the ones I was thinking of because they are reported now on the other hand And I won't mention names here Is that there is evidence that countries in several parts of the world are under reporting In other words, these numbers are just the minimum So why do you think that this might be the case that there's people that may be under reporting? Oh, I'm sorry. Okay, you're right, uh, except I want to be uh, you're you're right In other words just naming whatever but the idea is that once we start naming then you start Naming people and stuff like that and last time, for example, we've got a little bit out of control because people started kind of Picking back at each other like as if this is social media Uh, a second life social media. Well, kind of but on the other hand, there's no and we do have we have comments Well, of course But let's uh, but the idea is I wanted to just try to minimize a tiny bit the actual naming of places and stuff like that Uh, okay, there you go under reporting. So they escape blame in other words Yeah, okay, but the in other words the idea is of course, you don't want high numbers because what does that look like? That looks like people either the government's not doing their job or people aren't doing their job So it looks bad, right? And so if you massage the numbers a little bit Um, and oh very good under reporting to avoid panic Obviously with my obviously prestige all of those sorts of things. So if you look at my little Visualization there, you'll see that. Oh my goodness. This is getting uh high and uh, that would cause panic in other words the idea that um, this is getting Out of control and people really can't so for example, there are Lots of ways that people do to try to hold it under control Both in numbers and in what they tell us to do and stuff like that. So let's take a look at this What can science say? Well here again? Um, you can read the slide, but let's see what we we can say Okay Okay, so one thing we know is this is not the flu Okay, what we know is it this is not the flu Okay, it acts differently. So we don't know for example, whether it will die out in summer or whether it will recur Or whatever just we're not there yet. We do know that there's a lot of different kind of coronaviruses We can take our lead from Yeah mutation is a problem. So we know that there's a lot of different kind of coronaviruses We know that there's a lot of different kind of coronaviruses We can take our lead from yeah mutation is and it's already mutated by the way and it does um It will but it's not the black death either very good to say that in the last presentation to Uh, they thought that exactly And ooh now it I've also heard that it does mutate slowly, which is good Uh, here again, I'm not uh putting in too much science here. We have limited time But I would but if I see something in there, I'll comment and it is not the black death in other words and I'll actually You guys are really good at this stuff because I'm going to show you something a little bit later here too having to do it like Um inflow at eight 1918 influenza Epid or pandemic that sort of thing the black death, for example killed about 200 million people But then again, there weren't that many people on her You know over in europe at that time. So that was between a third and um half of um The people that greatly changed a lot according to psychology for a long period of time Yeah, exactly. And so, you know, I I guess if you want to be a kind of rosy optimist about this It could be worse Which it could be okay. Now one of the things we do Know is that the environment and this is kind of tongue-in-cheek here A subset of people who pay attention to science. Well, you're right Not everybody does and that's something The the rats are starving this pandemic. Yep. The viruses aren't the rats are Okay, so what we do know is that viruses don't care if it's mid-apole or may Or so setting goals like that is kind of not very realistic unless you have something to base it on I'm not saying names Hey, I'm just saying that viruses don't have a calendar Okay The other thing the thing the other thing we do know is that the virus will do what it does in other words It will spread. Uh, whoa. What was the question here? There was another one. Maybe test but oh Yes, actually that was one of the things that I was going to get to here is we don't know that We don't know We know obviously there are people who have recovered in fact hundreds of thousands of people have recovered Um, but we don't know whether they can get it again All that sort of stuff like that. Those are all speaking of scary. I mean, that's all the stuff Those are the types of things the problem is is we don't know those Um, we do know that the virus will do what viruses do and it will spread until it's either localized in other in other words, it's um in Areas that for example, if you talk about malaria um malaria is localized to different parts of the world because that's where mosquitoes that are infected live Okay, um However, it kills a lot of people like a million people a year if i'm not mistaken localized also means that uh, there's not a lot of contact between different people So we can do that and there's there's a couple good ways to do that to localize it same thing with things like smallpox smallpox was tracked localized vaccine And uh, essentially eradicated. Okay, the virus also will infect either everybody In other words, if it's not localized it will affect everybody or it'll mutate into something less virulent or infected Or yeah infection infected Okay now herd immunity would be preferable to yeah, okay I agree absolutely hundred percent in other words herd immunity via vaccine would be preferable to herd immunity by inspection Now you'll get it Oh in other words one way or another the this is this is not um politics This is uh nature. Okay, and we don't have a lot of say over that we can understand what's going on But the virus is going to do what the virus does We do know for example that the only way to localize and you can you could correct me if I'm wrong here But the only way to localize the virus is to know who's infected So the only way to know who's infected is what? Well, we don't know if people have it have immunity they're thinking test test test absolutely and that wasn't just a test of the uh chat room there that was uh Yeah, okay, so testing in other words. We have to know you can't just guess and go. Oh, you got a fever That's an indicator, but then The the flu this year was particularly bad as well And there's lots of things that can happen. So the only way to really know Uh bronchitis the whole bed absolutely the fever of course as we know Is a way your body has a ratcheting up your temperature which tends to kill off Buggies like that. Okay. Well, we do know is a social Distancing and isolation decrease the number of contacts Yeah, and that's the other problem in other words unless you pretty much In other words, you can't just go up to somebody go. Oh, wow, they're not coughing. So I guess they don't have it Um or stuff like that. Yeah, and so, um We do those are things we actually do know So what can past epidemics tell us? Well, I would venture to say and here again Um, if you have a different way of looking at it, I more than Okay, now, I'll tell you something that I know about masks coming up And about possibly they're effective or not But one of the things we do know is humans haven't changed much in the last century Either physically Yeah, and let's let's take a look at the mask here when we get to Some of that okay, so masks may Is that humans have not changed much physically or socially Over the last century. So therefore one pandemic in other words, how do we react and so may inform another So among the scary side here, let me just Give you some things about the Um, oh really? Wow, that would be interesting if that last november see because oh, okay, because that's another thing is when we're the first cases Okay, it's the same if you remember speaking of hiv8 Uh, they didn't know that there were first cases until quite a while until they recognized it, right? Okay, so now let's take a look at what could happen Um from the scary standpoint. Okay, this is worst case scenario if you look at the right hand side you will see information from a bulletin that was put out by New York City in october of 19 and yeah In october 19th, and if you'll read that you will see that You will see that they basically they were telling people exact same thing that they're telling us now. Look at that wash the face and hands avoid gatherings It it spreads mainly by inhaling some of the tiny droplets of germ-laden mucus, etc like that so yeah, and so the idea is um That it was highly infectious and if i'm correct Here again. It was 1918. They didn't have the communication stuff we had today. It was about had a similar mortality rate of This virus. Okay. It was not too different Now on the other hand if you look at sar's one and mers that have occurred in the last 20 years You'll find out they were much more virulent and they didn't travel near as far as this one. So they probably were not as Infectious and they caused more deaths Whereas this one is kind of very infectious and does not cause mortality rate. It's not terribly high But on the left curve for example is Let me just put this information into Chat so it's recorded in chat Is essentially on the left Well, and that's exactly right in other words a A virulent diseases don't spread very much. There are some that are much worse than even of ebola And the idea is that if they kill too soon, they kill the host too soon. They're not going to spread because they can't go far now Well and and you're absolutely correct. Okay sumo is that in other words Now when you say bodily fluids droplets that come from Your mouth or nose or stuff are Bodily fluids, but I know what you're talking about in other words the transmission and stuff like that is a little different Okay Well, okay, that's another one here again is doesn't stay active as long as on cardboard. My understanding is that Does anyone know since here again? I I don't like to just hear myself talk. What substance have they found that the virus Is not In other words that actually kills the virus fairly soon. In other words, ah very good copper. Absolutely four hours They found that that you okay uv and I've heard that uv I've heard Off and on here again. I'm not a doctor. I'm reporting stuff. I'm more of a researcher Copper infused mass things like that Absolutely. Now. I've heard cardboards about a day. I wouldn't bet your life on it things like that I have heard that uh hard surfaces like plastics and stuff Well, that's why I said you they you these two debatable and such um and then hard Surfaces and such it can stay on there for days Okay So now let's take a look then at this this next slide I find particularly copper is a winner. I in this next slide. I find particularly kind of alarming because Look at the time period. First of all, look at the time period on here. This is a two month period and It's over it's a two month period and it shows the deaths here. This isn't just cases It shows the deaths per day in new york city at the time Notice that it was also uh, since it was the flu Uh, the uh, pneumonia was a big deal like for example, I have a pneumonia vaccine So hopefully I won't get pneumonia that sort of thing been vaccinated Okay, but let's take a look at this That middle curve is a second way That's the one that killed most people in 1918 if you look at it, uh the Most lethal part of the flu in was in the fall Of 1918 if you study the uh 1918 epidemic, you'll find that the timeline is kind of similar In other words, the first cases were somewhere in january And then it really started to get uh, you you could see that in that it ramped up a little bit in march Recall at this time that of course this was world war one There and so uh, there was a first wave In march There was a much bigger wave. Yes, you're exactly. Yeah, absolutely. Yes. In other words, the the circumstances were very different and so The second wave is what you see from september november and because this was the flu It came back in the winter And a third wave occurred And so you have a little different Uh situation And so let me put this into chat here Is it essentially where there were three waves and it wasn't really kind of faded out until the summer of uh, 2019 Now note that for a century ago, there were several things that were different than now And i'm going to put them up here one was There was not the medical assistance that we have today And there was no real containment like social distancing now. They did fine by the way without mentioning Cities, there were some cities that had parades for war bonds and stuff like that. They were much more affected Than cities that didn't have large parades and that more or less did practice a little bit of social containment Yeah, lots of interesting. Yeah. Well, there's a city Okay, so yeah, absolutely um, and then Communication was also what we didn't have all this social media And comments and all this stuff like that which could be good or bad Communication was by telephone and or written radio as a new technology and road systems were primitive and no commercial airlines So you couldn't get to another place to spread Oh, thank you. Good. Uh, okay, so you couldn't get to another place to spread stuff Yeah, it took it took a while for ships to go like and cruise liners. Yes, okay 56. Oh, yeah Okay, that's a that's a lot now all of the differences here resulted in kind of a Hopefully something that we will never see with this one was that as a result essentially of the of the different waves and Less medicine and all that and the close conditions and stuff was the result was about a third Or more of the world's population was infected and over 50 million died Remember, we're just up to 2 million cases Right now. So hopefully we will never see something like this. Uh, yeah, I've actually heard up to 100 million Otherwise, I just put 50 million because that was kind of conservative But then again, see we don't know because the different parts of the world There wasn't the reporting mechanisms and stuff that we had today. So we really don't know Okay, so let's go back to Yeah, so let's go back to uh, what science can tell us here again. You can read the slide As well as I can However, uh, and you've probably heard a lot of this, but let's take a look at some of the important parts that, uh are on Uh, that we know that can inform the data For example When you have in other words, they talk about cases Versus new cases birth is deaths and all that stuff and so That's a point of this Uh, yeah, and I agree with you wholeheartedly neuro and that's kind of what without A kind of shoving into you guys's faces. That's what I was trying to get There And well, it's not necessarily age related. It's it's but it in other words, it's immune system related, right? And also what sorts of medical complications? in other words, uh We would like to think in other words people that are younger That's that's actually part of the psychology there is that we would like to think that older people like me Um are somehow more susceptible to this stuff It's just simply because as you age your immune system, however, I go play out in the yard a lot And I've got dogs and stuff. So I would venture to say my immune system might be better than some of you guys I'm just saying Okay Okay, I might stack mine up against you or something. Okay. So any case the problem is is that symptoms don't always show up Immediately after infection. So you so in other words, what does it mean by new cases or total cases? In other words, there's a lot of people who's already hint. Yeah eat dirt Well, you know, there is something to be said with that is cleanliness is not necessarily a good medicine all the time um, we tend to be in some cases a little too clean and And and in other words, we don't expose ourselves to some of the things that can help our community And then yeah, absolutely as the or any kind of respiratory ailments or heart ailments seem to be not so good Besides the not like the floor. Uh, yeah, I don't know about this amphitheater. There's been a lot of people on here I wouldn't have your avatar let lick the floor here I don't think we uh clean it up Matt we I think we sweep the amphitheater after in between sessions here I don't know if I would lick the floor Okay, so what we do know is that now on the positive thing and I was like to put positive stuff too Is that we do know this Is we do know that 90 in other words, even if you get it 90 to 90 percent of people are infected survive Um, but what does that mean and we don't need an animation for that. Um, what does that mean? Well, all you know, if you have 100 million people And 90 percent of people survive or even 99 percent you're still talking millions of people that die And so do do we want that do we want it to be? Uh, another 19 18 uh epidemic. I don't think so Um, a lot of us of course don't think we're going to be the one that catches or dies, right? Um, but One of the things we also know is there are no miracle tears Or at least we don't know of any. Okay, I'll put it that way And that the only thing in other words, there's a lot of people that would love to find some chemicals or things that they can do or whatever to Prevent them from getting it and other people from getting it But right now we don't know of any miracle tears And the only thing that we know for sure is minimizing contact with infected people and minimizing getting the virus inside you Is a really good way to minimize trying to catch this Okay, uh now, okay culling the herds Okay, I actually heard somebody in two weeks ago I'm not going to name names, but two two weeks ago there was somebody who actually and I don't know whether they were joking or not But they basically said Well, why don't we just let you know let the uh old people and the homeless and Uh, that sort of thing die off Um, so that we can get back to work. Okay. The problem with that is you don't know if you're going to be the one that dies off Okay, uh, there is no There you can't say that this group or that group or whatever. There's a lot of people. Yeah, he could volunteer for that one first Great. Okay. Go go go um test it and if you come out, okay, great If not, but that's the problem. Uh, we don't know enough about this fine, um Yeah, and you're and you're right Is is the humanity so I'm actually getting into the psychology part here in a second And I want to I want to take a little bit time. So I'm going to roar through this one Essentially, you guys know all this stuff, right? In other words, if you have no social distancing That's not great. And if you have it then Uh, and if you do do some social distancing one of the things you can do Is at least give people a chance to get uh, exactly and my Granddaughter is an ER nurse. Okay, and she tells us all the time Uh, well, I'm watching the time here a little bit the psych what what actually happens and that's a very good thing the cytokine Storm is what happens with that is that you could be Doing fairly well and then your immune system can kick in and it can much like, um Allergies in other words an allergy is kind of your immune system kicking in Well in the cytokine storm thing people that look like they're doing pretty well They start getting antibodies and their immune system kicks in and then all of a sudden it kind of starts Doing stuff in your body that, uh Makes you worse and you can die from it From this the cytokine or cytokine storm Okay What is my granddaughter Rn say well, she's been a she's been an ER nurse for like a decade She says it's not good. Okay. There's a lot of there's lots of stuff She said she's seen more deaths in just the last few weeks than she's seen in her whole career Um, I won't tell you where she's at I know But she's being safe. She's a smart person Um And so she's being safe Okay, now one thing though, let's take a look then at The kind of as a psychology because I'd really like to get a little bit of information on here Here's some stuff I put up Is that we are human so it's kind of Or under it's important to understand how we react to this thing Okay So think about it. What are we being asked to Do And I know I know people believe in science and and I'm an adherent of science too But if you think about it for people that don't They're being asked to believe in something they can't see in other words these viruses It's not like this is a movie And when you're infected you cough blood or turn into a zombie is in some cases they're you know, you don't And so well And bear gone. I I know that cost Benefit analysis thing is Is something that really kind of gets me And so in other words, uh, but that's how some and reason why I I wanted to have this presentation This time is we're starting to think about this in terms of cost benefit analysis And you're right too many people in other words the idea. Oh very good. Thank you for all of those, uh, links Uh here again, there's there's uh, there's the note card and then there's just tons of links I've been capturing links and articles for very much time Well, you know, I watched the moon landing and there were people at that time that that said nah It's a hollywood stage or somebody actually said well, they may have landed on a moon And not the moon I see up there, you know that kind of stuff. So there's always that But the idea is if you think about it without judging people We are being asked to believe in things we can't see We're being able to we're being asked in uh to believe people what people tells us and so Who do we believe? Do we believe the scientists? Do we believe the politicians? Do we believe the media? Uh all of that stuff like that And then the other thing we're being asked to believe is in data and projections When we can get back to normal and think of the cost if if you want to talk about cost benefit Think of the people that Um are highly affected like people that have jobs that sort of thing people that uh That sort of thing so The idea is a lot of this tells us about what do we value do we value? Well and and and uh Yeah, the triage thing the problem is you don't want to see the thing about the social distancing and stuff And the reason why we have to do that even if the cost is the fact that doctors are dying Uh healthcare workers are dying and you don't want them to have to triage You don't want them to have to Um make a decision between the person next to you and you okay. Yeah, that's okay Sometimes I feel like shouting here, too Okay, because I see a lot of really strange stuff. I know and I see a lot of strange stuff and and um Going on so what could people gain from this remember that we can in every situation like that We can gain Things from this in other words, there are people that are manipulating this for various reasons uh for power But we can also gain perhaps appreciation appreciation of what we have I mean the next time you actually get to do normal things That's amazing Now the next time you see a nurse or a doctor or a store A grocery bagger or people a delivery person and stuff like that I hope that you say thank you for your service the same way that people Who don't know anything about the military tell me that because of my military career I mean, I hope that you'll that people will now. I don't want to get into the soapbox stuff I just I'm bringing up things having to do Um, well, and that's the other thing. What will the new normal? um Look like one thing we can tell though is that the pandemic is a social event In other words, what happens next what happens in the next month? What happens in the next month is as much what the virus will do as what we do And so do we want to go back to the new normal? What will be the new normal? Are we just going to go back to what we've been doing? um I don't know about that Okay, but are we just going to go back to the to do the normal we were in or are we going to do another normal? Are we going to learn from this In a way that no one ever has because we've never had a situation like quite like this Or are we just going to go back to normal? Okay, so I uh having having had 22 years of teaching I kind of got to where I know how Long to talk here and we're two minutes before the hour. So what I'd like very much would be Uh, exactly what you guys are doing ask questions answer questions uh share experiences stick around And that's the end of my presentation but um I'm very glad you came And I'm very glad that you're here to for me to learn about well Are we going to be in a a great recession a great depression? but remember that um in other words Do people in your neighborhood help each other do you even know your neighbors none of that's in the depression People got together and if there was no money they helped each other Would we do that again? Or are we just going to go back to normal where you don't know your neighbors you don't help out you look after yourself I'm not saying that's everywhere. There's a lot of places. Does anyone know a positive thing? In other words from a social standpoint like in Italy where they you know saying on the balconies or other people help Okay, I think I hope people will help each other how people will get to know each other I hope people will get in other words that will have a better world. Of course. I'm not Sometimes I'm a pessimist but down heart in an office Will we change schools? What about schools or in other words will there be more online stuff online's good to a point but There's there's upsides and downsides to everything at least maybe we'll know how Oh, really? So we brought you some toilet paper. How nice, okay And there are some funny things on um facebook and other places Okay Eat more health. Well, there you know, uh, I'm very into speaking for medical staff I'm interesting to see whether and somebody mentioned a visa me. I'm interested to see That somebody was uh, let's see what I see on facebook that was running around. It was like um pandas eat a lot When we're at home, we eat like pandas. That's why it's called a pandemic So Okay, well, I'm gonna quit blabbing and I hope that you guys may stick around and talk and Share what's going on here again? Well, thank you. In other words, I'd be just talking If they weren't you out there Thank you very much you guys are um You guys are wonderful stay safe and we'll all get through this thing Okay Don't be a lemming Don't in other words do what you know best. Don't just fall on the ground Okay, take care. I'm gonna uh sign off here. I'll sit around. Uh, listen to you guys