 Welcome back folks. This is Jacob Schuep filling in for Tom O'Brien and we currently have Tim Ord. Every Tuesday and Thursday, Tom has Tim Ord on the show and this Thursday is no different. Tim, can you hear me? I sure can. How are you doing? Hello? Yep, you doing alright Tim? How you doing? Yep, okay, yeah, okay. I stayed out there for a second. So, but yeah, I guess we can start looking at charts if you want. Absolutely. Let's take a look. We have a chart one up right now. This is the ArmSNYA. Right, that's actually the trend, that's Arm's Index for New York Stock Exchange. And yeah, something a little bit unusual going on here. The middle window is the 21-day arms and the top window is the 10-day arms and in between that's the SPF or SPY and normally when you get the 21-day arms up to bullish territory, last time that happened was in March of last year. Actually, we kind of had a slew of them there all through that bottom process but normally when you get the arms on a 21-day above 1.2, I think probably close to 1.3, we're at 1.21 right now. A lot of times the market goes in a trending mode so it's not just going to go up for a couple of days. A lot of times it goes up a couple of weeks or even a couple of months. The shaded pink area on this chart shows the times when that 21-day, which is basically a month of panic, trend reading above 1.2 on a daily basis is kind of a panic day. And you get 21 days of that, that's basically a whole month of trading of panic. So the more days of panic, the longer-term rally is implied. So we're thinking, or actually I'm thinking anyhow, the market is probably starting to trend here. We're not just going to rally a week or two. I think we may rally a month or two or even longer. And I've got some other indicators we're going to look at as we go through the charts. But this is one indicator since the 21-day trend is above 1.2, a lot of times that projects a multi-week if not multi-month rallies. So how high is high? We don't know yet. But you really don't want to short a market when the 21-day trend is above 1.2 or even a 10-day trend above 1.2. And right now both of them are above there. It's not saying we could have some down days in a market. You can, but ultimately the market will trend higher. So let's go to chart two. Yep, we have it up. And this is kind of a short-term view. The bottom window is basically just the volume for the SPX as the daily chart. And next window up is the SPX. The next window up is the SPX-6 ratio. Top window is the SPY. The first thing I want to talk about is the bottom there. The market, at least yesterday, was up five days in a row. And today it's not over yet, but it looks probably going to be up six days in a row. Momentum kind of rolls the market. It kind of actually evolved the stuff I look at. Momentum is probably the most important to me to look at. And if you get five days up in a row, there's an 83% chance Mark will be higher within five days. So even though you may have a day or two or down or even maybe three down days, ultimately you'll break to new highs. And if we're up again today, six days in a row up, I forgot what that percentage was, but I think it's in the low 90s if we're up today again. So even though we may see a mild consolidation here, I don't think it's anything to get really bearish about. It may trend down a little bit sideways here over the next couple of days, especially if you're up that many days in a row. But the consolidation should be mild and ultimately we will start to break higher again. So I don't think anything meaningful is developing here. And that blue shaded area I got there is showing that the SPX-VIX ratio made a higher high as the SPs made a higher high. That's usually a bullish divergence, suggesting at some point the market's going to keep going higher. Right at the end is usually when you get the bearish divergence, and so far we don't have that. So short term, maybe you might see a couple of days of weakness, but in general the trend is up. We're still holding long here. So I don't think anything, again, worthwhile top is not forming here at all. It's just a mild consolidation than higher prices. Let's take a look at chart three. One second. Okay, perfect. We have it up. Right. This is the point I try to make. The bottom window is the VIX. The next window up is the SPX-VIX ratio. And above that is the SPX. And I want to point out here, the VIX usually signals a top, near me a term top, start forming, because when the SPs will keep making higher highs, and that ratio, which is the second window up from the bottom, will make lower highs. And I pointed out the last two tops, the 2022 top, that peaked out in late 2022, or 2021, early 2022. And that top we had back in 2020, there was a top. And both the SPX ratios made higher lows, or lower highs as the SPs made higher highs. And that was a big warning sign that a decline was coming. Well, we don't have that here. In the areas we have right now, circles in blue, we got the SPs making higher highs, and that ratio also making higher highs. Again, there can be some short term pullbacks. But intermediate term wise, the market looks pretty good. This is a weekly chart. So it looks at the bigger picture. And right now, as it says right now, I think 2024 will be an up here. And we may be actually even starting a trending market over the next several weeks. If not, maybe we trend all the way into May or June, I think it's starting to look like. So it's really time to kind of be long here. And you've had that. I think it's still in the early stages. Wait, I'm sorry. Oh, no, no, no, definitely. My bad for interrupting you. It's just every time that I've had yawn, and I've been filling in, your indicators were calling it, even when we were having a really kind of consolidation period. I think you're targeting, I'm going to try to find the chart you sent, but you had a potential target in the SPX around 5,000, right? Yeah, 5,700, actually. That was a monthly chart on the S&Ps. And it was a head and shoulders bottom, I think, formed taking the top of 2022. And the high we had back in July of 2023, I thought that could be a head and shoulders bottom. And we broke above that neckline with the finest strength. And if you take bottom of the head, and you take the measurements to the neckline, you add that on to the neckline, you come up around 5,700 on the S&Ps, which there's a lot of targets up in that mid 5,700 area. So I think we could hit it this year. So definitely. And you know, I mean, Yeah, I mean, you have the spine also breaking that, you know, 480 level again with conviction and just continue to go up. Tim, stay right there. We'll be right back. Welcome back, folks. Yes, many up about 0.22% right now. Russell up about 0.41. NQ's off 0.14. And the Dow futures getting about the same up about 0.24%. We are still with Tim Ord of the OrdOracle.com. Tim, are you still with us? Yep, I sure am. Yeah, we are on chart three at the break. Oh, yeah. We're talking about the monthly S&Ps and that monthly chart. Yes. And it could fail, but it looks pretty good. There's other actually charts supporting that idea that this year is going to be a pretty good up here. And also, this is an election year. They're not going to let the market really crumble here. You know, but I think it'll be at least double digits. You know, at least 10%. Maybe I'm taking another, you know, close to 20% again. But anyhow, go back to chart three here. I'm going to also suggest or point out that the bottom window is a VIX. And a lot of times when that VIX is below 17, which is actually all that blue area. I kind of shade blue there. A lot of times when that VIX is below 17, the market is in a trending mode. So there's a lot of different type of indicators suggesting that not every day is going to be an up day or not every week is going to be an up week. But there's not going to be major down weeks probably going forward here. I think over the next several months, I think this market, you know, the money, most of the money, I think will be made the first half of this year. I'll put it that way. It may get choppy as we get close to election around November. But between now and June, I think this market is going to keep in general climbing up. So that VIX, because it was below 17, I think that's another indicator suggesting that we could see a trending market. And actually go to chart four here. Okay. There's another indicator that may also suggest that we're in a trending market. The top window is the RSI and the middle window is the daily SPY. And it's pretty rare for the RSI to get 80 around the 80 range. And I marked it with the blue dotted lines on the chart. We got 80 back on the RSI, 80 on the SPY on December 18th of last year, about a month ago. And normally when you get that, that's never the final high. And most times the market has a multi-month trending market. So I'm thinking we're still early in the market trading-wise. And I'm thinking, if you look at all the times those blue markets or the dotted blue line happen, the market at least rallied multi-months. So I'm thinking there's another reason why I'm thinking, this month will be up, next month will be up, it probably marches up April up, and maybe even May and June. This market is probably in a trending mode right now. Several different types of indicators. The 21-day arms suggests that. The VIX suggests that. And the RSI on the daily SPY suggests that we're probably in a trending market. So if it looks at me, everything's kind of lining up here to be bullish. So that may change if it does, we'll change with it. But right now, I don't see any major problem right in front of me other than some oscillation phases that may be pretty mild. But in general, the thing's going to go higher. So anyhow, that's my opinion over the next several months is that the market's going to go higher. And every indicator you've been showing us has pointed that as well. So there's quite a few different views of it. So I guess if you do get a... I think the worst pullback we're going to have over the next three, four months, whatever, is maybe 5% at most. I don't think that's going to happen. You might see a 3% at best, but I don't see 10% pullbacks over the next several months. I'll put it that way. We can go take a look at the gold market real quick. Sure. We'll start here in five. Yes, okay. A pretty inflation index. Yeah, inflation declines. I do an RSI on this thing. It works pretty well. It picks out short-term lows. And I've been kind of leaning on the bullish side on the bigger time frames. I still think the August of 2022, or it looks like about small October of 2020, was an important low. I don't think that low is going to be broken for a while. And since over the last actually six months, as August of last year, this market's firstly moved sideways. It really hadn't gone up, really hadn't gone down. It's pretty much at the price it was back in July of August of last year. It's just gone sideways here. And we're getting another short-term buy signal because when the RSI of this ratio falls below 30, it turns up, which I think is turning up right now. We're probably seeing a low in this vicinity as we're speaking. And what's important, what the next rally does, normally when you get into CHOP, the market soon after will start a impulse wave. You go impulse wave to CHOP to impulse wave to CHOP. That's how the market works. And we've been in CHOP for the last six months. We're due for an impulse wave. But will this next rally be an impulse wave? Don't know for sure. But if it does manage to be an impulse wave, where it rallies at least a couple of months, then I think that changes a lot in the market. But yeah, on a short-term basis, there's a bullish signal right here. How big the balance is, I'm not for sure. But it's turned to chart six. Okay, we have the weekly GDX. Yeah, the weekly GDX. And this is a chart. Actually, this is the weekly, we're going to look at the monthly. This is a chart that picks out the trends. And if you can see, we're in the CHOP part right now. The major signals come out. I'll tell you what they are. The bottom window is a weekly up-down volume percent. So it measures the up-down volume. And the next window higher is the advanced decline percent. So, and I put a Bollinger band on it. Major cell signals occur, and that's the red lines across there, which has been three of them, occur when that indicator, both indicators fall below the mid-Bollinger band. So it gave a cell signal back in 2012, gave a bi-signal in 2016, gave a cell signal in 2017, gave actually kind of a double bi-signal in 2019, had a decent rally, gave a cell signal in 2021, and actually gave two fault signals. Actually, both of them got above the mid-Bollinger band that fell back down again. So which is pretty unusual, but it is what it is. And right now we're still below mid-Bollinger band on the weekly timeframe. So if we can rally on page, the previous page, if we can rally for a couple of months, most likely this weekly, both weeklies will turn above the mid-Bollinger band and give a multi, you know what I mean, these type of rallies last at least a year, not a couple of years. And that would turn, we need a rally on GDX to last a couple of months to turn these indicators back above the mid-Bollinger band. When that's going to happen, I don't know, it depends on, you know, the next rally, but it'll last a couple of months. It'll be a pretty big bully signal. Absolutely. Tim, we have two more left. If you're okay with staying to the next one and we just knock them out, that would be awesome because I want to hear more about gold in particular. All right, okay. Awesome, folks. Stay right there. We'll be right back with Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle. Welcome back, folks. Take a look at the GDX right now, trading at 2823, up about 1.91%. We were on with Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle. He was talking, isn't that the outlook for gold? Still with us? Yep, I still am. Let's go back to chart 5. Okay. The only reason why we're bringing this up again, anyhow, it's giving a bicycle right now. What's important, how long that bicycle will last. Excuse me, let me get it smaller here. I needed to get one during the break, too. Allergies or something, Tim. No, my throat's a little dry. Yeah. So, chart 5, whoever, you know, if this rally out of chart 5 can last a couple of months, three, four months or something like that, at least two months, if you go with chart 6 now, if that, this is a degree of time on the chart number 5, if it can last several months, most likely if that does happen, it will pull the bottom window indicator in, the next window up indicator probably above the Bollinger Band. And if it can do that, then you're looking that rally to continue higher probably for, you know, a multi-year type route because this weekly chart is a multi-year chart. If it can get above the mid-Bollinger Band and stay there, which normally when that happens, it stays above it. It goes on. At some point, fairly near term, we're not talking years out because this thing, the weekly, as stayed below the mid-Bollinger Band since 2021, well, that's three years ago and most of these signals, they had one last, you know, for 2012 high down to 2016, that was a four-year signal but most of these signals last about a year and a half, give or take, year and a half, two. And three years since the last signal, so we're due for something other than down here. And so I'm thinking at some point, we're going to get above that mid-Bollinger Band in both those indicators and most likely it's going to stay above those mid-Bollinger Bands for at least a year, maybe two or three years. So it depends on this next rally, you know, if it can last a couple, three months, most likely the weeklies will turn bullish. Now, if that can happen, we'll have to chart seven. Okay. Now, if the weeklies can get above the mid-Bollinger Band, stay above mid-Bollinger Band, it'll flip. This is a monthly chart of the same indicators but on a monthly time frame. And so far, the monthly is also below the mid-Bollinger Band on both of them but if you look where they are, if you look at the bottom window which is the monthly cumulative advanced decline, it's 2016 low. So it's yeah, it's really a beat up. Yeah, it is. If you go on to the next one higher which is the up-down volume, it's pretty close to matching the 2016 low. So the markets in general are really sold out. They really want extreme situations to the downside because we had three years of selling here. When will the selling stop? Most likely it will stop at the previous lows when we're in that vicinity now. Well, and you see too like... We've done a bigger time frame but right now, they still haven't turned up. Yeah. And you see not like a we've been getting a general downward kind of movement, right? But even on the year, you just see kind of this at least I'm looking at the GDX right now, yeah? This kind of movement up towards around 32 level. Of course, we had a low in about October of last year in 2562 up a little bit and low. It's kind of sleepy. I'm just talking about the GDX right now. But I hear what you're saying on that kind of like oversold situation, right? It's not seeming like it's going to go much lower right now, but it's just a question like when does this wake up? And when it wakes up, I don't have any doubt that this is going to be great. Yeah, probably a good opportunity. So let's look at top, you know, on the chart number 7, look at the top window there which is the monthly GDX and I grew a trend line across that where the tops were going back to that 2021 high. So we really had a bunch of chop for a long period of time. But to really break a trend line if you ever look at the study Weisskopf, you need to break a trend line with this. Well, going up through a trend line, you need to break with the sinus strength, that's the SOS there. And if you notice we're not backing away from that trend line, that blue trend line right there, so we're kind of hugging that area. And so I'm saying if we go back to chart 5, which is basically that short term bullish signal we got on the inflation-deflation ratio if that can stay on a bicycle for a couple of months, most likely we'll get through that trend line probably with the sinus strength and that will change everything on this chart. So we're close but has that thing other than a short term buy signal, the intermediate term trend I have to say right now is still down, but it's to a point where you're matching the lows of 2016 are coming close and so the markets pretty much sold out. When will I get above the mid-bolinger bands? It'll be after the low because this is kind of a delayed indicator. It doesn't try to pick the exact tops or the exact bottoms, but does give you the meat of the majority of the Vansity Clines. If you look at the last sell signal we had in 2021, if you look at where it happened on the GDX, which is top window it was actually several or a couple of months after the top. So I'm thinking the bottom's in September October of 2022 we're in a sideways consolidation right now. And at some point we're probably going to have a sign of strength through about a 30 range or about 32 maybe on GDX. We can get through that and I think there's a new ball game coming for a lot of these gold stocks. Most of these gold stocks have really just been beat up since 2021. So it's kind of a dull market but you know after dull there's euphoria. So I'm thinking that's way in front of us yet but it looks promising I'll put it that way. It's not like we're at some major high here looking for a big down we're probably approaching some sort of a major low but we haven't turned up yet and so how long is that waiting game going to occur? I don't know but it doesn't seem to be years out. It could be several weeks but my bet would probably happen this year sometime. So I don't know don't really have a time frame but it's due we've been on a cell signal since 2021 you know can it go another three years it could but it's undoubtful because previous signals last about a year and a half or two so we'll have to wait and see how that all forms up but we'll be there as we progress forward I'll I'll be glad to come on your show and say yeah the weekly cumulative advance and the monthly cumulative advance both close above Mitch Bollinger Band and I can say with confidence that we're probably in a multi-year rally so I hope that happens sometime this year Tim thank you so much for joining us today that was insightful as always I appreciate you having me on yeah thank you folks that was Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle you check over here right now this is his website go give him a visit either home the newsletter get a contact let's go check it out Tim thank you so much