 Great. What was your last said news? My name is Rob and we got a lot of things to cover because this is not one of those great days. So first up, we're going to take a look at a market recap and liquidations. Then we're going to take a look at the Celsius video from yesterday and what was said. We're going to take a look at the last 24 hours and obviously not the best in this whole entire market. And then lastly, we're going to talk about getting your head right. And we're going to talk about two things in the very end. We're going to go over Q&A. We're going to answer all your questions. First things first, you were here because of, well, probably because you subscribe to the channel or the title and the thumbnail. And the thumbnail, you know, I said, let's be honest. And in the title, I talked about for some of you, this is for some of you need to sell. You need to sell your crypto. I'm going to go exactly over what I'm talking about. So before I even go into that, let me just preface it with this. Don't be this guy or this gal. Don't be a thumbnail investor and go, ah, Rob's talking about selling. I'm going to sell everything. It's not a saying. There's also, there's different things that are behind the information and some things you have to consider. Investing is not straightforward. It's very loopy and it gets very tricky. And those are the things. And obviously, of course, I can't tell you what to do because I'm not a financial advisor. I can just tell you what I would do. And I'm going to tell you right now, if I was in some of your positions, I'd be selling my crypto. Here's exactly what I'm talking about. So I'll buy this tweet today and I said this, I go, look, let's put things in perspective. Seriously, do you have a roof over your head? Do you have food in the pantry? Are you relatively healthy? If he said yes to those things, then you're doing a lot better than a lot of people, especially people who are in poor health. A healthy person has a thousand wishes, but a sick person only has one. So I said this, this morning, I'm going to say it again. If you invested too much for this timeframe, then take some out. Only you know what's acceptable for you. And I got to tell you from the things that I've been seeing and hearing, especially on Twitter and DMs and emails, some of you put too much in. And if I was in your position, like if I was going to go back to 2000 before crypto 2009, 10, and I just got ahead of myself and I couldn't afford the basics, I would be selling my crypto right now because I went way too far in and way too heavy. And that's just what it was. I probably didn't pay attention to the basics. I didn't scatter my crypto around. I centralized it in different exchanges. I should not have done. I didn't put on a ledger, which I should have done. And all these things that if I didn't follow those basics, I would probably have to sell too. So that's just the truth. I'm not here to be like some people like, come on in and should you sell? No, you should hold it forever and diamond hands and stuff like that. Look, I can't tell you what to do, but I can tell you for some of you, you guys went in way too heavy and way too hard. And if it was me, I'd be selling. I'm going to tell you exactly why. So let's go over a little bit of a review of what's going on. So first of all, how's the market doing? Not so great. Let's be honest. We got a market cap of, hey, we're still a trillion. We're still a trillion dollar market cap. That's pretty good. But I'm just like a couple of days ago, it was 1.19 trillion. And I said, hey, just 190 billion and we won't be a trillion dollar asset class. And here we are a couple of days later. Crypto does not disappoint. Bitcoin's down. Ethereum's down. Everything's down. Well, Tether's doing good. That's one positive. USD coin and so on and so forth. So at least there's some positivity. And I got to tell you, these top 10s are just taking a shellacking. But if you go down a little bit further, the central line is only down a percent. That's weird. True USN, 10.5. 5.5 for theta. I got to tell you, some of these top 10 coins are taking more of a hit than y'alls. And of course, we take a look at the traditional markets. For them, this is earth shattering numbers. 4% is like the world is ending almost. But of course, we just call that Monday. Not a big deal. Actually, our Mondays are 17% now. Not 4%. That's what's going on. Also, if you take a look at leverage plays, I thought leverage would have calmed down. But if we take a look, let me blow this up so you can see it. If you take a look at leverage plays, anything above 0.2 is high. I thought once we got liquidated, people would learn their lesson. No. It's still 0.28, almost going to all-time highs as far as leveraged. And what this is for leverage ratios, I'll read this to you, Boo. That's the exchange's open interest divided by their coins reserve, which shows how much leverage is used by use on average. So people are still like, hey, I know what I'm doing. That's fine. I don't begrudge anybody if they're shorting or going long. Just be aware that if you do that, you get into stuff like this. Here's a total liquidation of the past 24 hours. You're looking at almost $1 billion, pretty high, almost one of the highest for quite some time. And that's just for all cryptos. If we break it down by Bitcoin, it was a lot. And if we take a look at Ethereum, it was a tremendous amount. And so on and so forth. We could look at Solon and XRP, but no one's really doing that stuff. Not anymore. I like before. So that just leads credence to what is going on. And that is what is going on into our market, which leads me to my next point. So let me be crystal clear before I move on. When I hear people who email me and text me and DM me and go, I can't afford rent. I can't send my kids to school. I can't pay for the basics and necessities. I'm like, you want way too hard. What do we say on this channel? We talk about it. Some people listen. Some people don't listen. Only invest what you're okay with losing. That is the big thing. Also, never centralize your crypto and digital assets. I got a friend, Diego, great kid, great guy from Puerto Rico. And I saw him post that he had all his crypto and on on Celsius. And I was like, Diego, I know you personally. I know you listen to the channel. You talk on these meetups. What'd you do? He's like, well, that was my yield. And I just thought it would be okay. And I'm like, dang it. So this is the thing that drives me insane. I mean, I say these things, but it just doesn't hit. So I guess I'm not doing my job enough to tell people just to be safe. And that's where we're at. But that leads me to the next point, the Celsius. And we all know exactly what happened. This came out last night, around 8 p.m. or so. And it says Celsius has paused all withdrawals. And I think everybody knows about this. This is what they said. I'll open up the blog post itself. And it says, due to extreme market conditions today, we are announcing that Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, swapping transfers between accounts. And I thought, well, that's interesting. But I'm like, well, they'll probably give us updates. Let me see. Oops. And no. No updates since 16 hours ago, which is quite odd. I find it. So that's very concerning. And that was concerning. And I went to Consensus in Austin. I talked to a bunch of random people and got some good insights. And this was the video that I put out yesterday around on 11 a.m. yesterday. And I was addressing this exact issue. So I'm going to play it again. And you tell me what you think about this one, because I couldn't have said any clearer. So just take a listen, about four minutes or so. So that's what's going on and all those things. So let's jump into the big stuff, Celsius. So I've been getting a lot of questions about what's going on and a lot of FUD and things like that. I saw George over at CryptoZeres was talking about it, put a little emergency thing out. And this is what I found. And I've talked to some different people over at Consensus, some people who were in the know and can tell me some insider type of stuff. And I'm not here to tell you all that because that's really just cheese may. That is just gossip. And that is what is potentially going to happen. But here's what we know. And this is the truth. And I'll skew it to what I know. So this was a post put out EthereumWorldNews.com and talks about what the heck is going on with Celsius and Ethereum. Mostly just Celsius. But this is what has. So Celsius Network appears to be running out of liquid funds to pay back investors who are redeeming their positions on the platform. And before everybody starts screaming at the screen going, that's not true. That's not true. There's something else going on. It says, hold on. Let's take all the information. Calm down. We'll be okay. Alameda Research allegedly exiting its positions on STE, or Steath, Steath, whatever you want to call it, redeeming almost 50,000 of the asset for ETH. First of all, what the heck is that? So what is STE, or Steath, what do you want to call it? STE is the tokenized form of Steath, Ether, Native to Lido. Lido is a liquid staking solution for Ethereum backed by several industry leading staking providers that make Steath liquid and allows participation without any amount of ETH. So as you know, if you stake ETH right now for ETH 2.0, it's pretty much locked up for however long it's going to take for them to actually unlock it when they actually roll everything out for the merge and the third part for sharding, which good luck whenever that's going to happen. Anyhow, Alameda is one of the largest holders of Lido's STE and some crypto community members are worried about a potential bank run. The redeeming of the position itself isn't by itself a concern. Analysts are worried that Celcius Network may not have enough liquid funds to pay investors who are redeeming their positions. It is estimated that Celcius will run out of liquid ETH in five weeks at the current pace saying that the platform is functionally insolvent. 27% of Celcius' ETH is liquid with their remainder and staked ETH or staked in ETH 2.0. The latter being locked up for a year and this is from Yieldchad, I guess, looking to take a look at a curve and this is Celcius' ETH holdings in thousands. So on ETH, they have 268,000. That's 27%. And this SDETH, it's 445,000 or 44%. And on ETH 2.0 staking, which they can't really touch, 28,029%. And they're saying that people are just taking Ethereum off like crazy and if that keeps happening, they can't hit those numbers. So here's the thing. So you got to remember that Celcius just isn't a bubble. They can also do fund raising. They also can pull funds from other places. They actually call in margins they have to. And remember that they are invested somewhat heavily. I don't know how heavily it would be, per se, as far as weighted, but as far as Bitcoin mining. So having said all that, there's two sides there. But here's the big thing. It doesn't matter. What really matters is what you think. So if it is in your gut and you think to yourself, I don't like this. I don't like the optics of this. I'm going to get out and get out. That's what it is. Me personally, and I've said this from day one, don't put more than you're willing to lose into any one certain investment. I don't keep a ton of my crypto on Celcius. That is a recipe for a disaster for any type of exchange. I'm still on the belief that I just use my ledger and just put it there because I have the keys and that makes sense to me. I don't have to have an issue where there's a run in the bank. Then, you know, if it does become insolvent or something like that, not that I'm saying it is, but I'm just saying if you don't like these optics, you're like, I don't know something else and maybe I feel this and that take it off and that's it. That's as simple as I can possibly put it. I don't see, and you have to really ask yourself right now, is it worth the yield that I'm getting from Celcius? I mean, you may love them, you know, but don't marry any certain investment. We're not here to hit our golden anniversary. We're here to make a profit. So if that's it, then get out of there and that's all. Now, if you think to yourself, you know what, trust these guys look pretty good and this is just fun and it's up to you. Me personally, I don't keep more than 3% on any certain exchange or any type of centralized place and I stick it just in my ledger and I can sleep very soundly at night. So let me just think about that in the comment section and let's move on to what I learned at Consensus. So, and that was just yesterday and then nine hours later, nine hours later, Celcius put that information out and said we're going to stop everything. So I wish I could have warned everybody sooner. I wish I could have reiterated the thoughts that I had as far as the basics, not keeping things on centralized exchanges, not more than 3%, 5% maximum, making sure that you stay safe. And some people did DM me and said, hey, thanks to you, I, you know, got it all off. Now, I'm not saying that Celcius is insolvent right now. We'll see how it goes, but it's not looking good right now and I haven't seen any other reports or anything else out there and Alex and the team are not putting out reports on Twitter. Dangerous situation. And I can just tell you from, from right now, I probably lose 3% of my portfolio. What I left on, on Celcius. Is that going to crush me? No. Was that on me? Yeah, I should have taken everything off, but 3% I will live. The problem that I'm seeing is people who are gambling and putting everything on there, going, I'm living off this yield. I'm like, that's not what you're supposed to do. We've been talking about this every single week, but here we are. This is, this is the thing that, that maddens me. It's not, this isn't going to hurt me. I mean, personally, but I'm going to feel the pain from other people as they contact me and it's going to keep coming and coming and coming because they just didn't do the things they were supposed to do. And that's really what it comes down to. And the other thing about that in the comment section, and if you're just joining us, that was a video from yesterday moving into today. The whole, what we're talking about today is if you're in a spot where it's like, hey, I can't afford rent. I can't afford food. You got to sell your crypto. You went in way too heavy. Only invest what you're willing to lose. But at the end, we're going to talk about the situation where you probably want, might want to hold on to it. And that's what I talk about getting your head right. And only you know what's best for you. So let's move on to our next piece where we're going to talk about the last 24 hours. This is everything that I have gathered and why I was not hesitant to put out this information today as far as where we're going. And what I'm talking about is, this is how I kind of organize my thought process as things come down. And I usually just tweet them out. So if you don't follow me on Twitter, this is where essentially the show comes from. And this was 17 hours ago. And this was from Darman. Because I read almost all of the comments. Good and bad. And this struck home because it's another thing that we've been trying to work on. It says, my first bear market, I'm just shocked at how far altcoins have dropped. Bought Salon at 160. And I've been wrecked. I was a dumbass, never took any profits when I had a six digit portfolio. Six digit portfolio, never profits. If I can survive this bear market, I'll be taking profits regularly next time around. Debatable. Really sucks. I've worked one job for 37 years. Every time I was in put up another five. I said, we've all been there. Greed and loss are great teachers. And here's the thing. Have you noticed that every time we're in a green day, what do I say? If you're in the green, you might want to take profits. Nobody, everyone broke taking profits. And this is why, because when these things start to happen, and they're going to keep happening, and they're going to keep happening, and we're going to see a lot more pain come through. I want people to not be on the edge like they are right now and doing those these goofy things. That's why I say the things I do. So that's just one thing. I'll ask you if you can identify with that gentleman if fear and greed or greed itself has pushed you in the wrong direction. Then of course, we had the sales issue. Then of course, this was just 14 hours ago. Bitcoin was at $25,000. Ethereum at $1,300. I think we're going to see Ethereum drop below $1,000. Potentially, not for sure. I saw this from Voyager. Those are interesting. All Voyager products and services are fully operational and remain unaffected by current market conditions, including trading rewards, deposits, and withdrawals. Take risk management very safely and safeguard customer assets. I gotta tell you, I like that. CZ Binance said something pretty interesting. I thought this was pretty good to keep in the back of your head. Because this was me, this was us. This was the 2017 class. During the last all-time high, new people were marveling at OGs who got in early and held on. I was in awe of people who held on since 2012, 2013. I was just mesmerized by it. I'm like, how did you guys do that? It must have been so easy just to hold on. Then of course, in 2017, the same thing happened to me, a lot of us, and we held on. Now we're going through this and we're like, I know that people in the class of 2021 are looking at us like, how did you do that? Because we didn't invest more than we were willing to lose. We knew where things were going and we knew it wouldn't happen overnight. We didn't have the nonsense which are meme coins and NFTs and stupid stuff like that. We didn't have to deal with that so much. But we knew where things were going and that's why we held on. Just remember that everybody goes through it. Even us, even the 2013 class, it still hurts when you see these drops. But we've been here before. Your actions now determine what you will feel like during the next all-time high, not financial advice. In the next all-time high, you and me and everybody else are going through the same thing. So remember, when you get greedy, remember this day because these days are always right around the corner. And then DJ Crypto said stuff about how Celsius has never changed their website for one and a half years because they had Voyager listed as their partner and I was actually talking to the team yesterday, not yesterday, when I was in Consensus, the Voyager team. And I said, I just asked them, are you still working together? He's like, no, we've stopped everything with them. I don't know why they still have it listed. So I'm like, that's good. And then they told me some other things behind the scenes and I was like, it's not good. Which is why I put that video out. But here we are. And I said, rough night. And then here's where the things that I know from Consensus and the people that are in the know and some OGs and they tell me, I can't tell you everything but I can kind of lay out a little bit of track. But this is what kind of guides my decisions. The things that I hear on the down low and the things like this, this is a little snippet from Yahoo Finance. And this is L-Ariam. Mohamed Al-Ariam nailed it. And he talks about how inflation could hit 9%. And here's the thing, the Fed is coming out and they're gonna raise rates. We know they're gonna raise rate on Wednesday when they come out and say it. Or they're gonna have their meeting. And I am in the camp that they didn't get under control with half a point. I think they're gonna go 0.75 or even a full point. Some people think I'm crazy but I mean it is what it is. Maybe they'll go a half a point. But this is one of those things where I see it, I'm like, well, if they go half a point and it goes up to 9%, then what's the point of even raising it? I mean, I'll be honest with you. So it doesn't go to 10%, I guess. But they need to get this under control. And I think if, since Jay Powell is a big fan of Volcker, who was a formal Fed reserve chair in the late 70s, early 80s, in the Reagan administration, he brought inflation to control and potentially avoided a depression. I think he's gonna do those things. I could be wrong, hope I'm wrong. But here we are. So real quick, US inflation surged to a 41-year high of 8.6% in the year through May. In April, price increases slowed. That was good. But Eulerian said he never had hopes that inflation had peaked or that it was transitory. He says, so we're now in a period of stagflation. Low growth, high inflation. GDP is going down. We just saw in the last quarter, it had reduced in Q1, 2022. And we're gonna see in July, that in Q2, it also was slowed down, I think. And I think that'll be the legal definition or the definition of recession. Two periods of economic slowdown are two quarters. That's what I think, but I could be wrong. But he says we're now in a period of stagflation, mean low growth and high inflation. Well, we know that's true. And just so you know, like who is this guy? Well, he's president of Queens College of Cambridge University in the UK, previously the CEO of US Bond Fund, and giant PIMCO. So he's no slouch. He's not like the janitor and like, just, hey, you want to be on TV? And he states, the darkest period is that inflation persists. It's true. Take a look at anything out there. Go down the grocery store. How's that, how much is it costing to fill up your gas tank? As it has a 9%, people start worrying that it's going to go to 10%. And the next thing you know, we end up in a recession and that would be tragic if that were to happen. It's not tragic. I think it's going to happen. And that's where I think things are headed, unfortunately. And that is just what it is. So we have that piece. And then I'm going to play you this. This is BlackRock. This is Wei Li. And she's the global chief strategist. And what she's going to talk about, and just so you know, who's BlackRock? It's a, I want to say it's between 10 and 12 trillion assets in our management. One of the largest institutions out there. And what she says here is pretty concerning because this is an institution with major, major funds. So what I'm going to do is, let me share the tabs so you can listen to it. This is about two minutes. And then you make the call of where you think things are going. So let's take a listen here. Can you look at this global exodus? How long more does it have to run? What's going on right now is precisely why we recently downgraded developer markets equities because markets are primed to interpret every near-term inflation prints hawkishly and potentially overdoing it. And near-term inflation prints are very hard to predict from months to months. We can say over the long-term supply bottlenecks could resolve themselves to some extent that inflation could come down. But near-term is really, really hard to predict and markets are primed to really read and overread hawkishly into these prints, which is why we lowered our risk-taking and we downgraded developer market equities and we want to kind of stay bunkering down until later down in the year when inflation pressure eases a little bit. I mean, bunkering down seems like the right phrase on a day like today. What would a 75 basis point move from the Fed? I know it's not consensus at this point, but if you did and were to get a 75 basis point, if not this month, then in July, what would that mean for risk assets? Well, I think that would send panic signals across global markets, because so far they've signaled 50 bips back-to-back and potentially more in September and beyond, but 75 bips was not really kind of talked about. So if they keep that door open in the same way that ECB keeping 50 bips open and that send kind of panic across markets last Thursday, we certainly could see a repeat of that. That's not our base case at this juncture, but so much focus is around the politics of inflation, which is to be very tough, tough sounding inflation. So we could see further kind of hawkish chatter dampening market sentiment, but at some point we do expect the focus to go from the politics of inflation to the economics of inflation and that's when things fit. This seems like almost a very philosophical question, which is, can the Fed at this point engineer a soft landing or do they really have to choose between risking more a session and dealing with inflation? Well, given the supply driven nature of the macro environment, there really isn't a Goldilocks environment, the Goldilocks option on the table. So we do believe that the Fed will have to live with inflation because of the supply driven nature of inflation in the same way that ECB and central banks globally will have to live with inflation. So ultimately we do expect a bit of a dovish pivot from central banks when inflationary pressure eases and the focus goes to the economics of inflation and the consideration about hiking rates on labor market on the economy, but at this point we don't see that. We don't see that. I don't see that either. I don't see the narrative. I don't see where it becomes very positive. Now look, like I said, like this right here, this is a finite amount of time of what we're going through. This doesn't happen forever, but you have to take a look at the reality of the situation exactly what's going on so there is one last piece that we'll say is because we took a look at the the federates, we take a look at the equities parts and we've already heard about supply chains. Now lastly, I'm going to take a look at real estate and what's going on there and this again, not the best news. So just take a listen to this piece. Hold it with all the details. Diana? Well, Kelly, you're right. We got a six handle on the 30 year fix and that's the first time we've seen that since 2008. The average rate today came in at 30%. That's according to mortgage news daily. Just a note though from COO Matthew Graham who said it was very hard for him to calculate this today in his lender survey. He said lender quotes are ranging from 5.625 with big up front costs or so-called points to 6.375 with no points because some lenders want to get that five in there. So we started this year as you said around three and a quarter. Now we're over six. That means the monthly payment from $100 at the beginning of this year to $1945 in just six months. That's for alone the 20% down. So it's no wonder the home-building E.T.F. ticker ITV. It's getting hammered. This includes big builder names as well as some of the home improvement companies like Home Depot, Lowe's and Sherwin-Williams. Not only have mortgage rates shot up more than half a percentage point in just the last three days but home prices one final note a little over a year ago the monthly cost of owning a home and renting were virtually identical and that's as calculated by John Burns real estate consulting. Now owning a home costs $839 more per month than renting this differential is almost $200 higher than any time since the turn of the century. Wow that's really interesting so basically it's always about $600 more to own versus rent now it's more than $800 back into the rents market you could argue that would worsen the rents problem where we've also seen inflation. Right we've seen incredible inflation with both multifamily rents and single family rents so rent is becoming much less affordable we're not seeing enough supply come into the single family or even the multifamily rental market so again it depends what are you going to choose to say about that so what do you think you know you don't have a lot of inventory you got a lot of people who are trying to sell these homes so what's going to happen is and the longer I'm on this planet it seems like the more things the more things we want to change the more things just stay the same it's the same repeat of 2008-2009 as everything crashed down and you didn't have a bunch of buyers because the rates started to go through the roof and I know people can't afford these homes because the rates are so high there's actually an increase of supply what I'll do is I'll purchase these homes as they start to drop because people want to offload them or people lose their mortgage and I'll sort of rent them out to people and I'll just have my own little slice of conglomerate and that's what happens not that this is what I'm hoping for unfortunately so that is all the bad news that you can possibly get in a very short amount of time let's get your head right so the thing about this is that you have to understand that these aren't the greatest times and they're tough times I get that but you have to remember that these things are it's finite all these things are finite nothing lasts forever that Bowland didn't last forever did it but the bear market it won't either there's all the different times we had what would be turned like a mini recession or economic downturn and you can see that as time has gone on you see that even though we have recessions and these downturns and these bear markets and things like that you still have these economic expansions or these booms the last one lasted for 11 years 128 months 128 months in 2020 after the COVID we're at 24 we're gonna kick that down but I think once we get through this 6, 12 18 month time frame I think the better times are ahead of us and then also don't forget I know that this is not where people want to be but again bear markets where everybody makes all their money I didn't make a bunch of money in 2017 buying Bitcoin at 20,000 or 19,000 or 17,500 bought a bunch of it but I made it all in 2018, 2019, 2020 just down the cost averaging as a time for accumulation Ethereum the same thing was buying around 150 then 350 then 400 and Cardano at 6, 7, 8, 10 cents and the thing is is that the same thing just keeps happening it's like it just never stops it's just cycles so remember 2012 the four year cycles I mean Bitcoin was 14 bucks then you had an all time high because after the having 1,100 bucks the dip 314 reset same thing over here 2016 there was a having all time high a dip and a big long trough where I accumulated and made a bunch of dough then reset then you see that this is what's happening again 2020 way to having 2021 we had an all time high the same thing happens again we have another dip and we'll have a reset and we'll see it again in 2024 5, 6, 7 and so on and so forth this is when it's boring nobody cares and this is the time that I bought and of course the second best time is when it's going up it's going up so I know it's not like earth shattering like I wanted to be a millionaire tomorrow if it was easy everybody would do it and it's just like Lynch said everybody has the brain power for investment the question is do you have the stomach for it and lastly I just want to leave you with this before we go into the Q&A part this right here sometimes it just doesn't work to where you want it to be let me share this so you can hear it okay watch this this is today when nothing's going right you think nothing's going right so that's it so look not the greatest day but remember sum it all up I think some of you went a little bit too hard and heavy and it's okay you don't have to get rich today it's okay there's going to be down the party bus comes around every so often you just don't have to take every single bus that comes around and there's time there's time for everybody and that's the message here also there's opportunity it's just find that opportunity and just keeping your head on straight because it's everywhere and right now is the time when I know it's tough but we've all gone through it and we'll go through it this won't be the last time I can guarantee you that and that's it so look thanks so much for watching I appreciate it like today's video thumbs up and subscribe to this every day and a lot of these things are getting really time sensitive so please subscribe so I can talk to you and that's it now if you got to go it was a long, long session get out of here if not we're going to the Q&A I'll answer all your burning questions and we'll go from there thanks so much appreciate it