 The most popular state in India, Uttar Pradesh, is going to the polls. The elections will begin on February 10th and will be held in seven phases till March 7th. 403 members will be elected to the state legislative assembly. Uttar Pradesh is spread over 240,928 square kilometers with a population of over 200 million. Currently, the state is being ruled by the far-right Bharatiya Janta Party under Chief Minister Adityanath. The BJP of course is also the party at power in the center under Narendra Modi. The state in recent years has seen a great rise in the strength of the BJP. A key factor was the religious polarization following the riots and violence in Muzaffar Nagar in 2013. The BJP was able to benefit from this polarization due to its long-time policy of claiming to uphold Hindu interests against minorities. In subsequent state and national elections, the BJP made great gains. In the 2017 state elections, it won 312 seats in the 403 member assembly and its allies got another 14 seats. This election is especially crucial. As observers say, it could provide indications as to how the state might vote in the 2024 national elections. Who are the key players? This time around, the key parties other than the BJP are the Samajwadi Party, a centrist party led by former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, which is also backed by the left. The Bahujan Samaj Party or the BSP, which is mainly backed by the oppressed caste and the Indian National Congress, which is the main national opposition party are also in the frame. This is in addition to a lot of smaller parties. What factors will decide the elections this time around? The elections come shortly after the historic victory of the year-long farmers movement. The western part of Uttar Pradesh was one of the key basis of the farmers organizations. These organizations have asked people to not vote for the BJP, as it has failed to act on the promises it made in December 2021, based on which the farmers ended their agitation. Now, another important aspect is the state of UP's economy. When Adityarathu has appointed the Chief Minister in 2017, the financial year 2016-17 had ended with a healthy 11.4 percent growth in the gross state domestic product. Since then, it has been downhill all the way to a staggering minus 6.4 percent. The state has also been borrowing heavily from the market, and its total outstanding debt has shot up by almost 40 percent in five years. Strangely, this has not meant too much spending for the people. In fact, spending for education is declined, and spending on health has increased only marginally. The share spent on education declined from about 14.8 percent in 2017 to 12.5 percent in budget estimates for the current financial year. In 2021, students of the state were struggling to keep up with their studies during the pandemic, schools and colleges were closed, and the online mode was introduced. The government in the meanwhile did not pay teachers their salaries, staff for denied wages, and midday meals which are aimed at bringing kids to school were also stopped. Ahead of the elections, however, the government went on a major drive to distribute smartphones and tablets. Unemployment and low wages are another key factor which could be detrimental for the BJP. According to the Periodic Labor Force Survey, joblessness among urban youth of UP was just about 23 percent. This means, nearly a quarter of the youth aged between 15 and 29 years are unemployed, and those employed have been facing the issue of meager wages. The average wage for male workers in 2021 in the state was Rs. 274.5, that's around $3.6 per day. The rate is less than the average for India which is around Rs. 309, that's $4.1 US per day. The mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic is yet another factor which met player role in the polls. The images of dead bodies dumped on the banks of the river Ganga brought out the devastating manner in which the second wave of COVID-19 was handled in Nuttar Pradesh. Over 1.9 million people were confirmed as having been infected with the disease and over 23,000 died, according to official estimates. Other independent studies have estimated that in UP, the COVID death toll was much higher, as many as 43 times more. Reports based on official data show that the healthcare system in UP remained tragically inadequate to deal with the pandemic. Meanwhile, there was only a minuscule increase in the share of health expenditure from 5.3 percent in 2017 to 5.9 percent in 2021-22. Once again, ahead of the elections, PM Modi and CM Adityanath went on a spending spree, inaugurating or laying foundation stones of medical colleges, research centers, opening expressways and irrigation systems, all estimated to cost over 1 lakh crore rupees, which is around 13 billion US dollars. Another key issue has been the various cast and religious dynamics at play. The BJP's victory in 2017 was in large part due to a patchwork of alliances it built among various castes alongside the religious polarization. In recent times, quite a few backward cast leaders have left the BJP for the main opposition party, Samajwadi Party. The members of many of these communities are facing a deep and pervading economic crisis. Various issues of atrocities against the most oppressed castes might also work against the ruling party. The Muslim community, which has been at the receiving end of religious violence and other forms of discrimination, might also vote against them. The state of Uttar Pradesh has often been described as a laboratory for some of the policies of the BJP which are rooted in right-wing nationalism and a Hindu-centric agenda. In the coming elections, we will see how far this agenda has been successfully sold to the people of this vital state.