 All right, so thank you being here in this session and having interest in our presentations. I'll be talking about a working progress that we started with Patricia for the last two months to be honest. So it's quite preliminary and I'm looking forward to hear your feedbacks, questions, whatever you have in your mind. And that said, I should also, as you realize from the time limitation we have, I'll be quite quick for the literature report and for the technical details about the empirical analysis. So in case you have any questions, something you wonder, please come and ask me. I'll be happy to explain. All right, so as you understand from the title of the presentation, I'll be talking about the case of Syrian refugees in Turkey. And I'll be trying to basically show you how the exposure to refugees is changing the ethnic polarization that had or the access existed in Turkey between Kurdish and Turkish population. And then I'll try to understand if there's any change, what are the potential mechanisms so that we can just try to find a way to decrease ethnic polarization, which is an important barrier for conflict, as you know, from the literature. So I, as I said, I'll be quick on the presentations. I start directly with my research questions. And first, as I explained, I'll be trying to find the net impact of refugee population in Turkey on ethnic polarization. And then I'll try to see if there are any impact on the terrorist attacks. All right, so as you know, from the link between immigration and terrorism conflict, basically the top of the top on the agenda, we have the securitization of migration issue and linking with the refugees, particularly after 2015, what is so called the refugee crisis in Europe. This is also what we had seen in the discussions in the public area. So I put here some quotations from the speech of Greek Defense Minister and Italian Foreign Minister. And as you see, the common team is really the link between refugees or the potential refugees being diffusion, transmitting terrorism actually to Europe. And there are different mechanisms that are suggested in the literature, why this could be the case. And one is focusing on the diffusion of policies, ideologies and behavior. The second one is focusing on the special network. And then the thirdly, there is a channel suggested in the literature that the, you know, conflict is actually in itself, sibling over through the refugee inflows. But all these previous literature are, you know, so much focus on the immigration issue because the focus was more on the terrorist attacks in developing countries. And the idea of the, you know, those papers mainly is to try to understand how immigration is really linked with this problem. When we look at the association between refugees and terrorism in the literature, we see that the papers are usually around three main issues. The first one is the attacks itself on refugee camps. Terrorists are recruiting from refugee camps themselves. And then thirdly, the high incentives of the right wing anti-immigrant groups attacking refugees. So the paper that I will be presenting today is, we'll be looking at the picture from the other side of the issue, actually. So I'll be trying to understand how refugees in self indirectly affects terrorism through ethnic polarization. So when I define ethnic polarization, actually I define the, I use the definition of Esteban and Rey in their 1994 papers. So I'm using it as an interaction of between group identity and across group alienation. And as you know from the literature also quickly, I'll just want to mention that it is not the ethnic fractionalization, but ethnic polarization that's been found to be a predictor of the civil conflict. And importantly, which is also very much related with the Turkish case, it's been found that higher level of ethnic conflict will exist if a large ethnic minority, which in the Turkish case is the Kurds here, faces an ethnic majority. So this is very much fitting the picture here I will be presenting here today. And also the Turkish case is a bit distinct from what we have seen in the literature, because in the literature, the refugee flows and migration flows, when we see them, the refugee flows are usually smaller in smaller scope in the developed world. And as you know from the total refugee population, only around 13% of them are hosted in developed countries. So almost 90% of them are in developing low and middle income countries. And it is more temporary issue. And for the migration flows, it is more in larger scope and more permanent. So that's why literature is focusing more on this actual issue, linking terrorism and migration. So for the Turkish case, it is this thing I suggest, because the Turkish case is, first of all, currently now the country is hosting the largest refugee population, but also it is presenting us a protracted state of refugees. After 2011 now, more than 10 years past, and we have almost 4 million registered Syrian refugees in Turkey. And also on top of that, Turkey is traded in the middle of several conflict zones. So the turmoil in Iraq and Syria have some slower challenges as being suggested in the literature, and also we know from the literature that the degree of terrorist attacks does indeed cluster in space. So Turkey has a disadvantage position in that regard. And related with the Syrian crisis, Turkey has 911 kilometer long border with Syria. So I mean, you can imagine how it's been not only affected by the huge influx of refugees, but also the conflict directly there. And needless to say, Turkish army entering Syria in the later years of the conflict itself. And starting from 1980s, actually after 1984, we have also a Kurdish insurgency in Turkey. So this is a continued problem in Turkey. However, in the similar period with the Syrian refugee inflows in Turkey, starting actually in 2009, but let's say more after 2011 till 2015, we had a peace process in Turkey. So between PKK and the AKP government. And the focus of the paper today I'll be presenting will be focusing on the part that is focusing on the peace process period. And we will be extending the analysis for the later periods. So just a quick overview of what happened to the overall intensity of terrorism in Turkey so far across years. We see that there's ups and downs, but the peaks are usually around 1990s and also until 2015. Even if during the peace process as you see, there's an increase. And this is a Turkish map. And then you see that, sorry, so over here, if I can use the pointer, yeah, great. So this is actually the Syrian border over here. And the intensity of the attacks, terrorist attacks are main on the Syrian and Iraq border. And for the Syrian refugee population, we had Syrian refugees coming in Turkey after 2011 May, but particularly after 2013 actually we see a quiet jump in the number of Syrian refugee population. However, as you see from the map here, after 2016, the share of Syrian refugees across provinces is almost similar. And when you compare Syrian refugees with natives, you see that the refugees in Turkey are having lower education levels. So this is, I'm trying to show, you know, that will help you to interpret the findings actually. And it's more male and single population, which is important. All right, so what is the net impact then after presenting all these backgrounds? What is the net impact of refugee population exposure to refugees on ethnic polarization in Turkey? So I'm not, as I said, I'm not going into the details of technical empirical issues here, but when you compare the treatment and the comparison group in my differences and differences analysis in this first part, you see that actually after 2012 with the refugees being more visible in different provinces in Turkey, actually for the treatment region we see an increase in the ethnic polarization level, but for the control group it keeps decreasing through periods. And when we see if this is really a different, I mean, if the effect is different for different ethnic groups, I repeated the analysis for Turks and for Kurds only in the sample. It seems that it's not for the Turkish people, for the Turkish people, but for Kurds actually it increased ethnic polarization. So what could be the reason? This is also important to understand. So Kurds somehow, after being exposed to refugees, Syrian refugees, they started to have more ethnic polarization. So although it's not studied so far in our paper, there is one suggestion in the literature that was focusing on the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market, which is, I think, relevant and we will delve into that area after this presentation, which is the impact of refugees on labor market. So the findings show that there's small but negative labor market impact for the informal workers and for women. And there are also some papers showing that Kurds are mainly in those informal jobs. So we can say that maybe one channel is through the negative impact labor market impact of refugees. And then the other channel, what it could be, we just checked, maybe they directly also affected by the Syrian refugee exposure through some increase in the terrorist attacks. So as you see here, you can't see probably, but on the left side here, these are the Nazi three-level regions in Turkey, provinces, namely. And here I'm trying to show you that actually the share of Syrian refugees, as you see, it's very different for, you know, across provinces. So there's a heterogeneity in terms of the treatment intensity. If we say that, you know, the refugee exposure is a treatment. So therefore, I use the instruments of Arab's regression. And from there, I try to understand the impact of refugee exposure on the total terror attacks, then the attacks that are done by PKK, the Kurdish side, and then the other groups. By the way, the data I use is not the global terrorism database. I think in that sense, we are more advantageous because in the global terrorism database, we have information, terrorist attacks, information that are captured in the news. So if there is a small attack or if there is no casualties, maybe the attack is not reported and not in the global terrorism database, but we got the data from the... But you're out of time. So if possible, just wrap it up. Only because your presentation is riveting. But we could explore that with the question and answer. Yeah, sure. Sorry. I didn't see it. Okay. I was just concluding, actually. So what I suggest here is that then the ethnic polarization is actually increased even in the peace process. And the impact was on the Kurdish population. The important channel that we studied was through terror attacks on Kurds, mainly. I'll maybe go with during QA session. And yeah, we believe that the resilience of Kurdish population should be supported to have the peace process. And there are some to follow up. So if you are curious about the research, please stop by. Thank you.