 We are just about 80 minutes away from the first pitch of the 2022 Major League Baseball season, which means it's time to break down our bets for opening day. This is the FanDuel Live Q&A. That's right here on the FanDuel YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter channels. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joining me here today is Tom Becchio. He is a podcaster, writer and editor for us over at numberfire.com. And today we're gonna be breaking down a whole lot of stuff to get you set for opening day. We're gonna talk about the traditional markets. We're gonna talk about K-Props, Home Run props and build out a couple of same game parlays and see where we can find some value for today's games. Let's talk to Tom first though. Tom, it is a pleasure to have you on the stream for today. You can find Tom on Twitter at dfs underscore Tom. Opening day, how we do it? I'm doing great. You know, I said to you a little bit before the show it's like Christmas day. We have only seven games to get to but it still seems like a lot because it's opening day. You know, getting back into the swing of things. I think that we have a good seven game slate. I think there's enough options to look for. We're looking for some strikeout props. We're on the same page, I would say for a few of them. I obviously always have a few Home Run calls every day. I'm ready to go. I've got a potentially dumb Home Run prop I wanna ask you about later on. That's the preface, potentially dumb. We'll see how that one goes. But we're gonna be taking your bets as well. So if you're watching on YouTube, Facebook, Twitch wherever it may be, whatever you're betting put it in the comment section. We'll talk about that later on and break down our thoughts on those bets but you can talk us into making a bet as well. We can always be receptive to those things for sure. But before we talk about individual bets like for today I think the key thing for betting is finding your strength and knowing where your strengths are. And Tom, you kind of alluded to this but for you as a better what would you deem to be your strengths when it comes to Major League Baseball? That would definitely be Home Run props and strikeout props. Looking at things in terms of a player on player basis for pitchers and hitters, trying to break things down to, I would say a somewhat granular level. Baseball is a highly variable sport. So betting on a team or against the team like the Orioles can be tough sometimes because we know they're not good but they're still gonna win 65 some odd times this year. And I don't wanna be taking money lines against them because offenses can go flat at times and lack of runs can put you in a bad spot. So I like to look at things at an individual basis when we can see a bit more consistency from players. We get great sample sizes for your hits. They're strikeouts for pitchers over X amount of winning. So I like to break things down a little bit more specific than the traditional game lines. Yeah, for me, I do like the money lines. I over the winter built out a money line model and it's like you mentioned Christmas where it's like, Hey, it's kind of like Christmas day. You know, we get to do all this. For me, it was like double Christmas because not only do we get baseball but I got to finally like test my model versus the market for opening day. And you're talking about all these bad teams and like I look at what my money line models recommending it was recommending the pirates no longer because that money line has moved enough where it's no longer value. Same thing with the reds. Both those teams actively don't give a poop about winning. So it's kind of, you know, a little nerve wracking to have some thoughts there but I'll be talking about some money lines I like later on too. But I think the overall point for all of you gabbling in majorly baseball betting for the first time I would just try to find your strength and decide what you think is going to be the ideal way to play things, decide where your strengths lie and kind of go from there emphasizing that as being the key thing within your betting. Now we're talking here at 104 PM Eastern and we have the Cubs and the Brewers coming up later on today. That is going to be a first pitch at 220 PM Eastern. So a little bit over an hour away from first pitch. So I want to start things off, start down our breakdown with that game for today. So let's dive in here over at Fandall Sportsbook and check out what the numbers are saying for this game. We've got the Brewers as minus 190 favorites in the money line. The total is nine. That was much higher earlier on today. And the reason it was much higher, we can go over here to the number of fire games and Linus page was this number right here. Wind is blowing out at 15 miles per hour. However, the other number here is a 43 degree temperature. So I personally view that as being kind of a wash. You got the winds blowing out at Wrigley, you always want winds out at Wrigley. And that's enough great for offense, but low temperatures are good for pitching. So I view that as being a wash and when the total was a 10 and a half, I want to be under. I think the value is gone there. So for me personally, Tom, with the traditional markets, I don't see a whole lot in this game. Anything standing out to you in terms of traditional markets for this first game on the slate? No, the only spot I'd be willing to go probably would be the Cubs plus one and a half on the run line to see if they could keep this game close because it should be lower scoring. That would indicate hopefully lower scoring. It's going to be somewhat of a coin flip. In that circumstance, we also should note that along with the weather lines, it's also very wet there. So we have wind blowing out, like you said, which is generally a plus, but the humidity in the air with the lower temperature makes it very dense. So we're probably shouldn't be seeing too many if any home runs. So if the Cubs can kind of keep this close, just because no one's going to be scoring, the plus one and a half on the run line at minus 105 is probably the only spot that I would look. Yeah, humidity is tough because it's like you want one of the, you want hot, humid weather for balls to fly better because it's weird that like weather or the air is actually less dense when it's wet, which is a very strange thing to me. So it's very strange. But when the temperature is so low, I feel like that kind of cancels thing out. So when I'm looking at the way the markets have moved in this game, I think that they're fully appropriate with it going down to a total of nine. You got the Cubs in the run line there at plus one and a half, which is minus one and a half. We should explain that too. A run line in baseball typically will be one and a half and then you'll have a lot of juice a certain way. Personally, I tend to stick with money lines and totals because my brain doesn't really like fully work that way of a run line, but you can find those over at FanDuel as well. Okay, let's take in some props here for this Brewer versus Cubs game just because you want to get those bets in for those earlier on. We got the home run props here again. The wind is noted and the weather is noted as well. So might not be the most ideal conditions for hitting home runs. So when I look at these personally, Tom, I could always talk myself into an Omar Narvaya's home run prop because he is secretly kind of fun. I personally don't see anything of true value in this game from a home run prop perspective. Anything stand out to you there? As of now, there's not anything I would be going to on a home run simply due to the hitting environment. I would say Omar Narvaya's is a player that I look to sometimes. He's also along the same lines as Mike Zanino where he has immense power when he's in the right circumstance, but just based on the weather and everything that we noted, I'm not looking at any one of the Cubs side because it's actually a tough match of going up against Corbin Burns. Hendry's doesn't allow a ton of fly balls to begin with. So even if it was decent hitting weather, I don't know if this is the spot that I'd be wanting to go. Yeah, I think that I agree with that too. So for me personally, it's a stay away in those markets. Let's talk about the guy you alluded to, Corbin Burns, starting pitcher for the Brewers for today and Burns is tremendous. Obviously, got some hardware to prove that this past year. Burns strikeout prop, is it seven and a half? The under is minus 124. And I mentioned this before, I have a money line model. I also do have a strikeout model. If I go over here to the strikeout projections for today, Corbin Burns for me is at 7.8 strikeouts, his market 7.5. So to me that says, I'm okay staying away from this one, but it's also the same thing for Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks is at 3.5, I am at 3.22. So personally, I believe both these numbers to be efficient, Tom, did you have a different read on Burns or Hendricks in the strikeout markets? No, I would say Kyle Hendricks is probably a pitcher I've never been on when it comes to strikeouts, nor will I ever, just looking back to last year, like 16.7% strikeout rate. I mean, he's just not a pitcher that I have any faith in. He could go out there for six innings and legitimately have one strikeout. So I'm not laying the minus 152 on the under 3.5, despite the fact that I think it's a good bet, I'm not gonna go anywhere near there, just because he's not a player that I would ever be willing to lay that amount. For Burns, I will say the over seven and a half is obviously very tempting. He has the skill to get it done. I think this transitions into a larger discussion about early season pitchers and their pitch count, which is obviously something we'll get to for some of the other games we'll discuss, but I have a lot of hesitancy going to the overs on pitchers that aren't gonna be pitching 90 or 100 pitches. Right, and that's why you see in this column here, I have pitch counts or projected pitch counts and those are subjective because for a lot of guys you cannot find pitch counts for spring and it's very frustrating. Like I'm out here searching Twitter, trying to find anything I can on these guys. I have Burns projected for 90, Hendricks projected for 80. So Burns, I get why he's a seven and a half and that's why I'm not going towards the under, but I also, I'm on board with you where I can't go towards the under. I think that the broad discussion you put up there where we do need to pay a lot of attention to early season pitch counts, it is more important now than any other time of year because we don't know how long these guys will go and I think that's even more worrisome given that we had kind of a truncated spring training. So I feel like we will see some guys, a wide variance, a wide range of pitch counts. That's true every part of the year, but it's especially gonna be true early on this year. The other thing that matters a lot this year is that we discussed before, which is the weather. Again, because the variance in temperatures is a lot bigger right now than it will be later on. You see this Cubs and Brewer's game, 43 degrees first pitch, 48 in Kansas City say face the Guardians, 49 in St. Louis, and then obviously the Mets that is over in Washington for the Mets and the Nationals. But you get out to a couple of games later on the day, 90 degrees in Los Angeles and 90 degrees in Arizona. They tend to keep the roof open even when it's around 90 degrees. So I'd expect there to be open there for tonight as well. There's a big difference. So make sure you're not handicapping every game in the same way because weather does vary quite a bit across the board there. Let's get to a question here from Savan over on YouTube. He's asking, how do the first inning props work? So let's go over here to the Cubs and Brewer's game. He's again, it'll be the first inning that we have. So we've got the total runs over here on Fandall Sportsbook and we got zero runs, one run, two or more runs. So basically what you're betting is that across the span of the top of the first and the bottom of the first, how many runs will be scored? I believe there are a lot of other props you can bet with regards to first innings, individual innings and stuff like that. Personally, and you can disagree at this time, I don't tend to bet these because I want larger samples and it's also because I'm okay having a smaller bet slip if it means that I have a better bet slip. And I know that like we talked about strengths before. My strength is not diagnosing first innings. I'm even hesitant for like first five markets. I think that I get why you wanna do that because you wanna avoid bullpens and stuff like that. I'm even a bit hesitant there because it's a smaller sample. So that's where I come from on this time. What about for you with regards to these smaller sample profits, not just first inning, but also other ones in general? Yeah, I would say first inning bets are something that I rarely, if ever, bet on. I get the argument for the first five and I do tend to go there sometimes when I'm confident in a pitching matchup just because I like what we're seeing. We have a decent sample size. We know the pitcher should be out there for X amount of innings, et cetera, et cetera. But the first inning, we're talking if you take the under and we're talking about a random solo shot, you don't wanna be dead in the water immediately. Meanwhile, we looked at the game overall and you were right on the game, but you don't wanna be losing a bet on the first pitch or something like that. So I don't go to first inning bets. I go to the first five sometimes, depending if the matchup is right, especially as we get later in the season, we have better sample sizes for teams and pitchers. But first thing is generally just to stay away from me. Yeah, I think that's the same for me too. And it comes down mostly to sample sizes. That's kind of the primary thing for me is I wanna increase that sample size, give myself more chances to be right. And in general, that's the way I wanna play things and that does translate to Major League Baseball as well. Okay, let's move over here and talk about the broader slate, not just for the Cubs and the Brewers, but let's go to the overall slate here for today. And let's talk about the traditional markets first. We'll get into some props as well later on. And when I look at my money line model, as of right now, the one bet that does stand out in terms of choice and value is the Padres money line. They are minus 1.36 in the money line facing Arizona. Now I say this and I would caution you, if you're watching this stream right now and you wanna get some bets down, this number has been moving towards Arizona, which means it's possible I've read this market wrong. I think that's always a key indicator of like, hey, market is moving against me. Does that mean that I'm wrong? Reading things wrong, consider that. Don't necessarily talk yourself out of something as a result of that. But at least keep that in mind. Just at least keep that in mind in terms of, with the way you're reading a market. If it's moving against you, it's probably moving for a reason, so keep that in mind. I have a question about the model. Yes. Does it account for, does it take into account and the value on the run line? Because if we, just from a realistic standpoint, if we look at a team like the Cardinals, they're pretty decently favorite on the money line, which would indicate that they're in a spot to win this game. They probably should against the Pirates, but there's something of plus money, plus 116 on the run line and minus one and a half. So does that account for like, oh, they should be winning this game by X amount. Therefore the run line is actually the proper bet instead of the money line? Yeah, so there are differences in like modeling a run line versus a money line. And I do model out expected runs and expected runs allowed. And basically back that out into what should the money line be based on expected run scored and expected runs allowed. So I do have those numbers in the model. However, I don't know, like so for NFL, you know key numbers, you know three, you know seven, you know 10, stuff like that. I don't know those key numbers well enough in baseball because they don't really exist as much because there's not as much consistency in the way they're distributed, but I don't know this distribution. So I've not modeled out a run line yet. I'd like to add that eventually, but I've not gotten there just yet. So you could turn that direction. Let's say you don't want to pay minus 136 in the Padres. Look at the run line at minus 1.5 plus 114. Maybe that's more enticing to you. For me personally, if I'm trying to bet based on my model, I skew towards the money line there. So that's the way I go. Are you a run line guy in general? It's run line like depending on the matchup. So early in the season was maybe not early in the season, but maybe specifically for the first few days just because the pitchers like we're getting the number ones against the number ones, twos against twos, et cetera, et cetera. But if we have a really lopsided matchup and we're looking at a team that could be minus 200, minus 250 at home, and they're going up against a terrible pitcher and we know their offense has a super high implied run total like they probably should be able to win by at least two runs. So instead of laying the, you know, minus 188 with the Braves tonight, if they're in a spot to win, they're probably be doing it via home runs, which means they're probably gonna be up by more than two. So that's how I transitioned to betting the run line instead of the money line. Yeah, and I think that makes a lot of sense. And that's why you have options with baseball, which is a lot of fun for sure. Okay, so let's talk about this Padres thing because Savon asked a question earlier on that I missed. Sorry, Savon. He was asking about when you bet a money line, we confused because it says action, then it makes me pick a pitcher. What does that mean? So, okay, let's go over here to the Padres and show an example right here. So if I have 136 and it says action here, basically what that means is if I have action toggled on, that means this bet will be valid no matter what. If I change it to no action with you Darvish, where it specifies you Darvish must pitch, that means if you Darvish does not start for the Padres, then this bet will be voided, I'll get my money back. I won't get to like benefit if I win, but I will get my money back. Let's say I can change this to being Madison Bumgarder. Let's say part of the reason I'm betting the Padres because Mad Bum is starting, but let's say maybe he's hurt and there's a chance that Mad Bum does not start. I would toggle this to be Madison Bumgarder and then if Mad Bum gets yanked, that bet is voided. So it kind of gives yourself some safety with regards to starting pitchers. If you're worried about Jacob DeGrom, not that he's ever been hurt, if you're worried about Jacob DeGrom getting scratched from the start, you don't want to worry about that. You can use these options as being a way to safeguard yourself there. You can also do both pitchers if you want to just have the extra safety of saying, okay, I want to make sure both Mad Bum and Darvish are the starters for today. You can toggle that as well. So think about that. Think about the way you want to play things and go based on that. But it's very good questions, Yvonne, because it's, again, a new term for people who may not have bet majorly baseball previously. So I like the Padres. They're Moneyline minus 136. Any traditional bets outside of Brewer's Cubs standing out to Utah, and there could be totals, stuff like that as well. I mean, I think Houston inherently has some value of plus money in the grand scheme of things. I think that they are the better team compared to the Angels. I know that Otani is good, but it's not like Fromber or Valdez is a bad pitcher in any capacity. I wouldn't be surprised to see this a lower scoring game. So I would probably lean towards the plus money on the Astros. The question I have for you is how, like how much are you willing to lay in a Moneyline? Is it extremely matchup dependent when it comes to the pitchers? Yeah. So it's, it all depends on the number. So like the way that I like to say it is, value is value. So like let's say my number said that the Braves were 67% to win versus the Reds. And so if we look at minus 188, let me pull up my odds converter here because I don't have these like fully memorized just yet, but minus 188 is 65%. So the Braves implied win odds at minus 180 or 65%. Let's say that my model said the Braves were 68% to win. So let me get 3% points of value there. I'd be totally okay betting minus 188. I don't really care personally too much about laying a larger number. Now one way, one thing people will do in order to alter this is they will put in a higher allocation of money on a minus, a larger minus money bet. This is backed up by research. It's called the Kelly-Kaitree criterion where you can put more money, the higher the odds is, the higher the odds are the bet hits. So like let's say I'm weighing a Braves Moneyline bet, and separately I'm weighing an Adam Duvall home run bet. The Braves Moneyline is minus 188. Adam Duvall's never hit a home run. Who would possibly think about doing this? But he's plus 350. I want to bet a different amount of money on the Duvall home run than I want to bet on the Braves Moneyline at minus 188 because obviously, because the Braves are more likely to win this game that it's likely that Duvall it's a home run. So I like value. I don't care what the value is, but I might alter my bet amount based on the odds just to a shift to account for the fact that one bet is more likely to hit the other. So if that makes sense. Right, yeah. I do the same thing where it's tough to say like, you want to say that all bets are not equal where you're looking at a different lens where I'm willing to take a shot on some of these longer guys that I think are in truly good spots for home runs. I'm willing to put a little bit on there, but if I'm looking to a run line, I'm obviously a bit more confident in that. Obviously, home runs are highly variable. So I do the same thing. You have to shift. You have to be willing to move with the odds and find the best route to be profitable. And that means probably taking a little bit less on a home run prop than you are on the side. And for me, I do a lot of NASCAR betting and that requires you to have variable bets. Like a Ryan Blaney over Kyle Bushbet head up is not going to be the same as a Ryan Blaney outright and you want to account for that stuff. So I think in general, if we're going through like general tips here as well, make sure you're altering your bet amount based on how likely it is the bet hits. You can increase, if you think there's a larger edge, you can obviously increase there, but I think the bigger thing is making sure you are shifting your bet amount based on the odds that that hits because even a super valuable bet like a, let's say a guy is 25% likely to home run, but his implied odds are 16%. There's a lot of value there. You still don't want to go like three extra bet size because the odds that he does not hit a home runner is still 75%. So keep that in mind with these things as well. So let's dive in and talk about some props. You mentioned K-Props, you got your eye on a couple. Which ones to you stand out most as of right now? Yeah, it's going to be one of them that we mentioned briefly earlier this morning when we were talking. It's going to be the under on Shane Bieber, under six and a half strikeouts. I think Bieber is a phenomenal pitcher, obviously. Former Cy Young winner from a couple of years ago, I would say it's a decently easy matchup against the Royals, but it comes down to the fact that you'll in pitch 4.2 innings in spring training, reports are out there that he's going to be limited to 60 to 70 pitches today. And this is something early in the season that we have to be very cognizant of. I also mentioned a little bit while ago when I was on the radio this morning that teams are able to carry this extra player at least to start the year. And a lot of teams took extra pitchers. So why not use these extra levers if these pitchers aren't going to be going deeper into games, you have this extra player. To see Bieber only go out and pitch 4.2 innings or maybe five innings and he gets to that 70 mark while having five strikeouts isn't going to be a surprise. So I'm worried about the length that these pitchers have. Everyone's going to say, oh, they're not stretched out yet. So Bieber under six strikeouts, I think is probably the best spot to go. I would say the same thing about you Darvish as well. You want under you Darvish? Under you Darvish, isn't it at six and a half as well? You monster, how dare you bet against you Darvish? Oh, it's at five and a half. You monster, how dare you bet against you? Listen, I have them on my fantasy team this year. I want Darvish to have as many strikeouts as possible. I thought it was at six and a half, it's at five and a half. Yeah, so let's, let's talk about the Bieber one first. I do agree with you. I very much agree with you on this one where I think that Shane Bieber under six and a half is the way to go. Now this was minus 106 earlier on, which means you're, if you're betting it now at minus 128, you're not getting the best number you could have gotten. And personally, like I had this big mental block where if I know I could have gotten a better number earlier, I'm like generally opposed to betting it. I did get the, that one earlier, so it's fine. I can like, I can feel okay with that, but like I worry about getting not the best number here. So maybe check around and see what you can get with regards to Bieber under six and a half. I do still think that minus 128 shows value though. Going back here to my strikeout projections for today, I actually have Bieber at 65 pitches because of the same report that you mentioned where Cleveland pitchers in general may not go super deep into games this year at the beginning. Also why would they? If they're trying not to wins, like who cares? So I think that I buy into those reports. And so when I put Shane Bieber at 65 pitches, I get 4.49 strikeouts, which may seem wildly low. And it is the largest discrepancy between what the market has and what I have. So it is a big discrepancy between those two things, but I'm also okay with that. Like let's say I wanna get Bieber to six and a half strikeouts. I'd have to change his pitch count projection to 95 pitches. If I do that, I get 6.56 strikeouts, even money on the over, I think that's a fair bet, but there's a big difference between 65 and 95 pitches. So to me, what that says is I've got a lot of wiggle room, even if Shane Bieber goes above 65 pitches, I can still feel good about making a good bet here. So if I keep things relatively in check, I think that I feel good about Shane Bieber. So to me, if I'm picking one bet, Tom, for today, in terms of the strikeout market, I would say Bieber under six and a half to me is the best bet I can make on the board. Are you agreeing with that being the number one bet for you? Yeah, in terms of strikeout bets, yes. I have some favorite home run props. They're obviously a little bit of a different story when it comes to probability, but I'm 100% on board the Bieber bet. I already grabbed it earlier this morning. Okay, so we got Bieber under six and a half. We did get a question from Jerry, asking about Corbin Burns' pitch count. I've got Corbin Burns at 90. He went 80, oopsies, that's Tyler McGill. He went 82 in his final start of the spring. So there's a possibility that Burns could go longer than 90. So Jerry, I would say if you're projecting a pitch count for Burns, which, you know, you could get someone else to do that for you if you want. I would say it's in a range from 90 to 95 probably. I think that 95 is probably where, the high end where I put it, 90 is where I have him and that has his K prop being relatively appropriate. So I'm okay, not going with that one. Now you mentioned you, Darvish, that's a five and a half, Tom. I know you were thinking about six and a half. What are your thoughts on that at five and a half? Well, I'm looking right now at the Arizona lineup and their active roster, you know, on fan graphs. They're active roster from last year versus right handed pitchers. And I'm seeing it at a 23.8% strikeout rate, which was the ninth worst last year with the active roster they have this year. Yep. Is there, the question I want to ask is, is there a report about Hugh Darvish and his pitch count today? Or what do you have that projected at? Yeah, so I have been 95. I have full you. And like that's to me very exciting as someone who adores Hugh Darvish. I am thrilled about that. Let me try to pull up my notes here that I had from yesterday on Darvish and his pitch count. Okay, so the note I have from when I was doing these yesterday, Darvish went 90 pitches in his final spring outing. So honestly, 95, I think is a pretty fair number. And I'm okay keeping that there. So that's why to me, when I have my strikeout projection for Darvish, you mentioned the high, I had the exact same number, you're 23.8% for Arizona's current active roster last year versus righties. Darvish struggled at times last year. I have his final 10 starts when he threw fewer sliders because sliders are generally like higher strikeout pitches. And I was worried that, okay, he throws fewer sliders and strikeout might go down. That's still 30%. So if I use those inputs for you Darvish, I come out with a strikeout projection of 6.97. And that to me says the over is in play here. So I go here, it's very juiced up. So just note that. Over five and a half is minus 1.48. You can go down here and always check the you Darvish six plus strikeouts is minus 1.46. That's a better number than minus 1.48. So we're gonna take out the five and a half. Always check to make sure you can't get a better number within the exact same book. Sometimes you can. They're not doing intentionally, just they're not always tied together. This was minus 1.36 of the six plus strikeouts earlier on today. I think the juice is a little bit much here. A little bit. But I still think I would be okay with this one. Darvish over with six plus strikeouts. You could get minus 1.30 over five and a half earlier this morning. I'm not sure if we can still get that in other places, but I would say hunt for some you Darvish over five and a half. Cause I think given the pitch count, given the matchup, given the projections, I think that he does look pretty good there. So the one thing I'll say about the, looking for the alt strikeouts. And I agree with everything you said about Darvish. I would actually be more interesting going into him at seven plus, if your projections that high, I'd rather just aim for a little bit. That's actually very true. You're right. Yeah. I would just shoot for that plus money. If you go back to the Corbin Burns, you go back to the brewers and the Cubs game and look at Corbin Burns, the over on seven and a half is sitting at minus 102. But Corbin Burns at eight plus strikeouts is sitting at plus 102. Which is the same thing which is very helpful. That's why you want to look at these things. Like these are, it may seem like extremely minor for like one day of baseball for like one prop. But if you are like doing this over the course of the season, like this can add up like significantly for, you know, you know, betting Cape Crops, betting multiple Cape Crops every single day throughout the course of April to September. Right. Exactly. And you want to like, if the sports goes are going to give you a blessing, you should take it. Like that's always the rule you should do. And I think that in this situation, it's good to look for those things. So make sure you check in the all strikeout markets. If it is the exact same thing and you can get a better number, do that as well. So good to call that one out too, Tom. I'm glad that you brought that one up. Okay. So for me personally, my list of Cape Crops for today is Bieber and Darvish. Let me look over here at the projections really quick to see Patrick Corbin. I have at 4.99, he's a 3.5 over at FanDuel. I'm worried about the weather in that game. Like they probably just wouldn't start. This wouldn't matter. But like, maybe if we get like an in game delay, that could ruin things for him. It's minus 160. I think that's enough where I will talk myself out there. I showed a little bit on Shohei Otani. His number was 4.5, I have him at 5.79. So let's go back here and check out what Otani's number is currently at. I've got him at 5.8 and his strikeout number is, oh, they pulled Otani off. Okay. So no more Otani. That's not a good sign. Well, hopefully the Shohei is okay. But he's been taken off. So to me, I think he's standing power. I see him at, I see him up here. Okay. This is because I'm in New York and markets offered in New York could sometimes be different. I can pull a little trick and do IL, that sports book and get the Illinois sports book. I see 4.5, the overs minus 154. No, I think that's too much where I probably stay away from it. So I think I'll stick to Bieber and Darvish. Any other ones you want to add here, Tom or the strikeout props? No, I just don't, I don't have interest in Corbin mainly due to the fact that I think he's going to get blasted today. I think that would transition into my, my homerun prop or one of my homerun calls for the day. But let's do it. Let's do it. I mean, let's go. Yeah. So that comes, my probably my number one on the board would be Peter Lanza. Not a surprise that Polar Bear sitting up at plus 270. Obviously homerun props are highly variable. And, you know, I have a specific method when it comes to identifying homerun props. I, it's been, you know, pretty profitable, especially the second half of last season. This is, You run all the heater. Yeah. Essentially a theory I've been, you know, kind of working on since 2017 and it initially started off as identifying players that have high upside to use as one offs when building DFS labs. And that has transitioned into, you know, betting homerun props. And it comes down to finding players and hitters that are both at a 40% hard contact rate and a 40% fly ball rate for, you know, generating that for a hitter and allowing that for a pitcher. And it, you know, kind of creates this like apex of, you know, this overlap of players that are in a consistently good spot. So Peter Lanza like checks every box except for the hard contact rate last year versus lefties, which was at 33.6%. But a massive 51% fly ball rate in a 325 is unbelievable. And Corbin was horrible last year. Well, I'm 2.40 homeruns per nine to righties, a 36.8% hard contact rate, well above league average with a 24.6% homerun to fly ball ratio. So this is like as perfect of a spot as like possibly imagine for Peter Lanza to get the season started off with a homerun. Yeah. And we did see Corbin struggle a lot last year. And I have Corbin on a couple of season long leagues. So I'm hoping that does not continue. The other thing that he struggled with as we go into the hitter tab, Corbin lets it a lot of balls and play a 20% strikeout rate. This is over his final 14 starts with a lot of sliders and sliders kind of the key pitch for Corbin. So it's good to see him up that number but still did not translate into results. Hey, he allowed a 40.3% hard hit rate. The hard hit rate I'm using is the stack cast number. And I believe that's number you were citing as well. Actually, they don't have that for splits. So that's the, the different one, the sports and info solutions hard contact rate. So this is the stack cast number. So it'll be a bit different, but it's 40.3%, which means that 40.3% of the balls and play he allowed had an exit velocity of 95% or higher. The fly ball rate allowed was 31%. That's high enough. It's not like a number of all bets number, but like it's high enough. Yeah, I saved this 40, 40 line and it's not like exactly on where it has to be within a range. And on top of that, this is where I would start to, you know, implement the weather and the hitting environment, the park factor, you know, city field for the Mets is a great pitchers park when they're in, you know, the great American small park in Cincinnati or obviously course field, et cetera, et cetera. So we have to look at it at a baseline and then add the layers in on top of it. So we got a couple of questions in the chat. Let's jump back to- We get Pierre first? Yeah, Pierre on YouTube is asking, how can I get access to these home run props daily? Yeah, I tweet them out every day on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom. The article is also up on number fire under the MLB section. It's gonna be, you know, three props per day. It's gonna be a mix of home run props or strikeouts. If there's a clear line for, you know, like a player to have two plus hits or to score, run, anything that has value, you know, I'm gonna write about and talk about. Yeah. That's pretty straightforward. Jerry asked about the Fromber Valdez six strikeouts. Let's go back to that one real quick. Yeah. And he likes the Darvish one. So Jerry and I will ride or die with you Darvish together and see what happens. Let's go over to Fromber Valdez here. Four and a half the number on him. We had talked about him before with regards to Otani. Four and a half minus 122. Let me check out what I have for Valdez. I believe my numbers are higher than that, but not enough where I want to take it. I have Valdez at 5.13. So there is a little bit there. I personally don't see enough to get super enthused about. Let me check out his pitch count. 90 projects pitch count for Valdez. So I don't see enough there to bite on it, but I also do think it shows a bit of value. So Jerry, if you have more conviction in Valdez, you feel good about his pitch count, I would say you have full permission to fly our way. I'm not gonna do it personally, but I didn't, there's some value there as well. One more question here from Alvin. Asking if there is a DFS show for today. The solo shot, which is our DFS podcast, which Tom will host when I'm out. Austin Slain will host that one as well. That is posted for today's slate. We still got about an hour before our first pitch for Cubs and Brewers. So if you go to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, you can find the DFS show over there. We're not gonna have the DFS Q&As we had last year. So those are no longer there, but obviously if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter at Jimsonus or go to the solo shot on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Let's shift gears here and we'll get back to the homerun props in a second. Let's talk about to Motive Jag talking about Adam Wainwright. I've got Wainwright at 4.8 strikeouts. Or sorry, 4.9 strikeouts. I believe he was plus money over four and a half. I thought about that. I thought about it, Tom. I'm seeing plus 18 on four and a half. Thinking about it. Thinking about it. Because he stretched out. I've got to project for 95 pitches. He's facing Pittsburgh. They're not a high strikeout team, but they're also not a low strikeout team. Wainwrights leaned a lot on his sinker at the end of last year and I hate sinkers. It's the worst pitch in baseball. It should be banished. But he's still got a 19% strikeout rate. And if you give me 95 pitches against a not great offense, I can see it and my numbers do like it. I'm not quite there. Are you seeing enough to pull the trigger on Wainwright over four and a half? The pirates aren't good. We know that. But they're also a team like he said that don't strikeout a whole ton of the time. And Wainwright last year, I'm seeing he finished with a 21% strikeout rate, which doesn't always present a whole lot of upside to me. Pictures that can consist, like he's a better real life pitcher than he is like a prop pitcher or a fantasy pitcher. He's not out there like constantly pounding the strike zone, racking up those strikeouts. So I don't have a whole lot of interest when it comes to these types of pitchers. I understand the matchups easy. Plus money is actually very interesting at plus 118. But ultimately I would side with Bieber and Darvish as my two favorite Cape props to start the day. Wainwright is up behind. I think if I didn't have a decent number of bets locked in already, like I don't like to overestimate myself. I don't want to have, because I want to just grind out the best value I can get to make sure I'm not taking low value bets. If I didn't have, you know, that Cubs under already locked in, the Guardians money line locked in, if I didn't have a couple other things, I would be okay adding to my bet slip. I kind of want to remain neutral. Outside of one more, we'll talk about the homerun prop discussion, but Jerry likes to wainwright over four and a half at plus money over a fan dual sports book. Sounds like Moto Jag may as well. And I, again, I'm showing value on that. So I can see it. I'm not going to add to my own personal one, but I think that there is enough there to be okay with that. Okay, so we got Peter Lanzo as being your primary homerun prop for today, Tom. Where else are you seeing some value in the homerun market? One would be Manny Machado and it comes down to a lot of players on the Padres. I like Machado. I also like Nolan Aronado as a bit of a dart throw. I think he's at plus four 20, but really my favorite one would be Luke Voigt at plus two 90 for the Padres. And going up against Madison Bumgarner, you know, clearly taking a step back over the past couple of seasons. Last year versus righties, a 503X fit, 1.35 homeruns per nine allowed 45.6% fly ball rate and a 38.8% hard contact rate versus righties. So it's basically as bad as you could get for Bumgarner in this split. I looked to Voigt not only last year, but more importantly his career because the injuries he had last year, also the Yankees traded for Rizzo at the end of last season. So he wasn't playing a full amount. So over the course of his career versus lefties, a 252 ISO, which is super solid, 39.6% fly ball rate and a 37% hard contact rate. So this is like basically as ideal of a matchup, checking all the boxes for this 40-40 mark that I look for, for Voigt versus Bumgarner. So I love Voigt tonight. Like I said, I also like Machado, not a surprise. He's also a great hitter versus lefties. I wish Tautis was there because we could maybe rack off a few homeruns versus the Padres. I would assume the Padres would probably be one of the most popular stacks tonight when everything's said and done. So those players didn't air Nato. You know, I like his odds versus Berubaker, who I don't think is a particularly good pitcher versus righties. Yeah, so Berubaker, I have as like a decently high strikeout guy, but the rest of his numbers kind of lag behind. Aronato, would you say the number was on him? I think it was plus 420. I saw this morning for... Plus 420 for Aronato versus Berubaker. So I think that one, and like, I think that one makes sense. I don't tend to be as high in Aronato personally, so I might not get there. But I do want to go back to the Padres. I'll talk about that really quick. Because my potentially dumb home run bed of the day... Oh God, here we go. I had to give a caveat here. This is not one you should put in before a lineup's come out. Because the Fandal House rules for baseball are if a player receives a plate appearance, that bet stands. It's not a few starts. There are some places where if a player is not in the starting line, if you get your bet back. So I think there's a decent chance this guy doesn't play because CJ Abrams made the opening day roster. So Hasan Kim is not a lock to play tonight. But if he does, I think there is some value in his home run prop at plus 850. I do not like long money props because typically they're longer money for a reason. He's plus 550 now. Okay, so I'm not alone. I'm the Hasan Kim train. Apparently someone else is out there betting Hasan Kim to hit home runs. He's plus 550. Validation, baby. Hasan Kim going deep for tonight. Last year versus lefties, Hasan Kim, 160 ISO. That's not really where you want it to be. 33% fly ball rate, you'd like that to be higher. 34% heart rate rate, you'd like that to be higher too. However, when he was in the KBO, Hasan Kim was a pretty big power guy. I believe he had 30 home runs in his final year there. Showed us an extra base hit, extra base power in his spring training as well. Now again, I don't know if he'll play because CJ Abrams made this opening day roster. There's a very good chance that Hasan Kim is not in the lineup. I believe most places that I trust in terms of projecting lineups have him batting eighth or ninth. Number of fire has a nine for today. Obviously you want higher in the order because that means more plate appearances. But if he winds up in the order, I can't do plus 550. But if you can find a longer Hasan Kim number out there somewhere, I would take that. Also, you're looking for, so Alvin was talking about some DFS stuff. You want some super, super low salary guy looking for a second baseman, Hasan Kim. Just saying Alvin, just saying, wouldn't hate it. Tom, talk me off the ledge. Tell me why I'm dumb. It's like a Hasan Kim home run prop. No, I mean, I think it's fine. Like as long as AA has to be in the starting lineup, but like you're validating it for a good reason. You're not just throwing darts out here, right? We're not just taking these random shots. Like I enjoy like, okay, I'm looking at a player specifically for this reason. Yes, I'm going to scale back the amount I bet on it due to the odds potentially. And that's obviously a different conversation which we touched on earlier, but I'm doing it for the right reasons because he does X, Y and Z because the matchup shows ABC. And that's why I kind of like Aeronado. There's a good amount of wind blowing out in St. Louis tonight or today, midday. Out of 20, yeah. So what realistically could be a fly ball? Like there's obviously a lot of variance with that. And Aeronado could certainly get there based on the weather, based on the wind. So I like that. The Braves players, sometimes we get to these matchups where, they're going up against Molly, who I think is a good pitcher, maybe not great. He showed reverse splits last year who's worse against righties as a righty pitcher. And sometimes we get to these matchups where you can make a case for three, four, five hitters for the Braves tonight. So when you're going to a player like Kim, you're doing it for the right reasons. And sure, you may not go heavy on that, but A, you wait for them to be in the starting lineup and then B, you take a very metered approach to it. And, you know, it's a good value. And he has the underlying metrics that would point you in that direction. Hopefully he's not plus 550 everywhere. Hope we can find a better number, but Jerry doesn't care. Jerry's all in on Hot Sun Kim at plus 550. Jerry is in again. I would hold off until the lineup comes out because Fandall's house rules are different than some other places. Make sure you know the house rules of where you're betting, specifically for props, because there are some places where you get the bet back or not in the lineup. And that's awesome. You know, I love that. But for Fandall, it's any plate appearance. There was a game last year where Will Myers was in the lineup, got scratched due to health, pinched it later in the game and hit a homerun. I had gone to bed, didn't know he got scratched, left him in my DFS slot. I woke up and I was like, oh, he hit a homerun. Then later found out what happened. So a lot of weird stuff can happen. I would give yourself the safety of not betting it until later on, but I'm, oh no, here. I don't know if John Sheeran is watching or what. We got Hot Sun Kim back out to plus 600. We're moving, sorry, Jerry. We got you into the bad time, but we are getting better numbers on Hot Sun Kim. Maybe hold off. You can get a better number later on. So keep your eyes peeled, Jerry. This is the one thing I'll say about homerun props. If I can go on a mini rantier for a minute. Yeah, let's do it. So for homerun props, like let's say, obviously 600 is a massive number, but let's say we were super on board with Machado today. And he opened up at plus 330. And all of a sudden now he's at plus 290. In the grand scheme of things, like that difference while you're losing out on the value, which is obvious, no one's debating that, like over the course of the MLB season, I don't see that as an issue. If I'm confident in Machado or X-Hitter on Y-Day in this matchup, I'm gonna be going to that here based on, like the metrics not based on, oh, he was plus 330, now he's plus 290, now I can't bet it. Like I know you love the value and like missing out on the values, obviously. Not great. Big mental block, yeah, yeah. It can be a big mental block, but again, like if your numbers are pointing in the direction that this is a good bet because of these reasons, like I'm still gonna make it. And he's plus 290, I'm not gonna complain about plus 290. Yeah, plus 330 or plus 350 would have been better, but if I don't bet it and then it hits, I say, oh, you know, all my signs pointing me in this one direction. So I look to stay consistent with it when it comes to betting. I'll give up a little bit of value if I missed it. If I was busy, I couldn't get the bet in, whatever it might be. Right, as long as it still shows value and that's why having knowledge of the way that odds work is important. So if you just search like an odds converter anywhere, like we have on a number fire, on odds fire, you can find one there. If you plug in the odds, so if you put in plus 290 for Nanny Machado, that'll tell you that the implied odds that are 25.6%. As long as you believe the odds that Nanny Machado hits a home run are still larger than 25.6%, then there's still value there. So even if you're not getting the best number, if it's still better than that number, it's okay. So keep that in mind. I would also say if a number moves in an area where you didn't get the best number, shop around, because sometimes other books will lag behind with this stuff. So check other books, make sure the value is still there, but it's not a cross-off. Like the Bieber under six and a half, I still like that one, even though I know I could have gotten a better number earlier on. If I, wait, I didn't, like, you know, the hypothetical we're talking here right now with the way things work there. Okay. Any other home run props you wanna discuss here before we talk some same game parlays? No, Machado, Voids, Pete Alonzo. Alonzo's definitely my favorite. Maybe taking a shot with Aeronado. I think those are all, you know, maybe if I dig a little bit deeper later in the day, I'll look to some of the Braves hitters, maybe Adam Duvall, we know that. Yeah, baby. Yeah, baby. I was pulling up the page already. I mean, he has insane numbers versus righties. He strikes out a ton. I think we all know that. Yeah. But he does have massive power, which is always good to see. I mean, do you ever buy into narratives? I don't know if you've ever had this discussion. I jokingly buy into them. Like, I don't put them on Twitter. Does that count? So, Keith Bryant, he is signing an eight-year extension a little while ago. Well, did he? Yeah, like 30, 30-some on 40 minutes ago. Signs an eight-year. Okay. Like, I absolutely think he's an exciting young player. You know, looking to him to have, you know, plus two hits tonight is obviously different than a home run. I wouldn't maybe go to him for a home run, but plus 200 for what we all agree would be a good young player. I don't see that as a bad bet if I'm willing to buy into a little bit of the narrative. So, you want your narrative for tomorrow, Tom? I'm not sure this is a good narrative or not, by the way. Oh, okay. We need to consult the consultant. Well, let me see. I know who was pitching this. It's gonna be one of your favorite players, probably. No, it's not. Oh, it's not? It's Eduardo Rodriguez. Today is his birthday, which means tomorrow is the day after his birthday. I know the birthday narrative is strong. It's almost as strong as the Bobblehead narrative, like if it's a Bobblehead day. That's a real narrative. Yeah, and the baby narrative. Yeah, yeah. So, baby narrative, Bobblehead narrative, birthday narrative, all the Bs. Day after birthday, I don't know how to handle because that could be a rough day or it could be a great day. It is, today is the birthday. So, I'm letting you know, Tom, for tomorrow, handle it appropriately. I don't know. Like, let me see what we have here, projections for Rodriguez. I got him at 5.3 strikeouts tomorrow. So, maybe we go check out the props on him based on that. That's the one narrative I'll buy into. Day after birthday narrative for Eduardo Rodriguez. I was gonna bring up the Deval Home Run Prop plus 350 over at the annual sports book. You mentioned Mali's Reverse Splits. That is a legitimate thing. And the high strikeout rate is concerning, but Mali's strikeout rate was lower versus righties than lefties. Deval last year, 292 ISO versus righties, 52% fly ball rates? What is that? So, I think Deval is one I like as well. So, if you can find a better number than six to one Hassan Kim, I'll get there. And I think that Deval, other guys standing out to me as of right now. Okay, let's do some same game parlay discussion here. If you are new to betting, same game parlay is over on Fandall. Work like this. You go to, let's say, Diamond Actors Padres because that's where I did probably gonna be living from mine given that I like a couple here. And what you do, you can either select it from the typical thing or you can go to the same game parlay tab. I tend to just go from here. So, I like the Padres money line at minus 136. I'm gonna put this to be both pitchers as that. Okay, we got that. I like the UDarvish six plus strikeouts. Let's see what that is. That is currently minus 134, so that has changed. Okay, we'll take that discount. Sure, why not? Okay, so we can't combine those. Alas, either way. So, I'll go over here to the same game parlay tab and see ones that I can combine with this Padres money line. Let's see if we wanna add in a homerun problem. Maybe I talk myself into betting Hassan Kim at 61. The Padres money line plus six plus UDarvish six plus. Yes. You can do that from the same game. At least I'm doing it right now. Plus 159 for Padres money line, Darvish six plus. Okay, so let's do this. Let me do this. I wanna pair with Hassan Kim anyway. I know I can do that, otherwise let's just do it. Let's just fire away. The Jerry special, we're putting Hassan Kim in there. Okay, we got Darvish six plus strikeouts at minus 134. Hassan Kim at 61. You're pairing numbers together and letting them operate that way. I'm guessing that's because I'm in New York and there are probably more restrictions because the tax rate is very high. If I were to pull the devil magic and go to the Illinois sports book, I can't bet there obviously because it's location restrictions, but I could put my URL that I'll look at if I wanted to. But anyway, minus 134 at 61. That is your traditional same game parlay. Fandal also has a promotion going on right now where if you bet, I believe it's one plus dollar on a same game parlay and either, it's either if it doesn't hit or if one leg doesn't hit, you get your money back and free bets at $20. So if you wanna take advantage of that, you can do this this way. However, you can also with same game parlay plus add onto this. Let's go back out here and go to all the games on the table for today because what I wanna do is add on the Bieber on your six and a half strikeouts to this one as well. This would be a same game parlay plus because I have the two markets in the single game and then I'm adding one elsewhere. So if I add minus 124 on there, it's plus 2061 for the same game parlay plus. Now again, you are taking on a lot of risk here because the Hassan King number is 61. That means if we assume that Fandal is dead on, I believe that's 14.3% implied odds that he hits a home run. So that portion of the bet has small odds of hitting. Keep that in mind. That's the way you can play things here. Personally, I am very picky with my bets. So it's harder for me to find a lot of bets than a single game that I like, but this Padres down in the vaccine happens to be one where I do like a couple. So I think that to me, if I'm looking at a same game parlay plus for this slate, it's a little bit fun. I would go this way. If I wanted to make this a bit more likely to hit, let's go back to the Padres game and add in the Luke Voight home run props. I think that I like him a bit more than Machado. And remove Kim or keep Kim in there. We're removing Kim. I want a higher probability. Voighted plus 290, that's plus 1077. So I still think that's a solid way. If you want to go the Jerry route, go full out, go Hassan Kim, that's 20 to one or whatever. This one's 10 to one. I think both work. I'd probably skew towards the Voight one personally. And I like all these bets individually. That's my necessity for betting any kind of parlay. Whether the same game parlay or anything else, I need all bets to show value by their own. And then I can pair them together. What about you, Tom? What are you seeing in the same game parlay markets today? If anything, because I don't want to force you to make any bets you don't want. So this is one of the things that I would default to. I think it's a little bit easier to show in a sport like NFL where I want to find bets that AI obviously agree with. I'm expecting them to happen, but they have the correlation. So if we would choose to see Voight home run, Machado home run, you want to put a Kim home run in there, what does that imply? That implies the Padres probably winning by multiple runs. So I would take the home run prop, add in that run line minus one and a half, which is at plus 122, which I think is a good bet on its own because as I outlined when talking about Voight, I do not think Bungarder is a good pitcher. We know that the Padres have power up and down their lineup. So if I'm taking a home run prop or two, I'm going to pair that with their run line. And it's the same thing with the money line shooting for a little bit more value at the plus 122. But again, I'm finding that correlation. It's the same thing, as I said to you before and a fell same game parlays. If you're looking to a receiver over, it probably means that the quarterback is doing something as well. He's probably having two plus three plus touchdowns over X yards, whatever it might be. So I'm not taking these random shots. I'm taking them that have correlation implied. Right. So you would not be adding the Darvish strikeout prop to this, basically what you're saying. Like the Darvish prop. It helps the run line, I guess. It does help the run line, but it's not inherently in the same line as home runs plus the run line. Like Darvish could have the, they could win by one and Darvish has six plus and DuVoitte has a home run. And like that, you know what I'm saying? Like they can miss off on one or he could have the six plus strikeouts and they don't cover X, Y and Z. So I want to take things that are as directly correlated as possible. If that makes sense. I think it's worth noting that Fandall does account for those correlations. They ain't no dummies. Like they know that if we're talking like NBA and you're betting overs on a couple of different markets for a guy who's stepping into a larger roles or lots of interesting like that, they know. Like they're not dummies. So keep that in mind that you will get a worse number in correlated markets versus uncorrelated ones. So keep that in mind. But, you know, looking at this, I think that if we take out the Darvish one, you got, you said DuVoitte, right? Or was this someone else who wanted for a home run? Yeah, DuVoitte would be my number one, probably Machado too. Okay, well, let's do both to see what happens here. That's plus 1978 to have the Padres run line along with Voitte and Machado both at home runs. And it's accounting for those home runs. It is accounting for that. That is very true. But at the same time, it's not penalizing you to a prohibitive extent is the way that I would phrase that. So I like that one as well. And the other games where you're looking to potentially plug in a couple bets any same game parlays for you, because I think that the Padres versus Diamondbacks one is the primary one for me. It would be immediately going to the Braves. Okay. It would have to be some combination of their power, potentially taking, can you take team total unders on the same game parlay? I can't in New York. I tried that yesterday. So I'm doing the backdoor alley thing here. Do you want the Braves over? Yeah, either the Braves over and you'd correlate that with multiple home runs, as we said, from the right-handed hitters from the Braves or maybe taking an under on the Reds. I'm initially looking towards the Braves over. Okay, so we can't do that one. Let's see if we can add in the Reds under instead. I think that one should be okay. They're not correlated, but like you could still see value in that if you're not as into the Reds. Nope, can't do that one either. So I'm guessing what's happening is like the individual team totals can't be locked in there, but we can still get the Duval one in there. We can still get the Braves run line in there. If you want that, we can do it that way and play things like that. I think for me, again, the Diamondbacks versus Padres game is the prime one I'd be looking for if you're trying to build out a same game parlay. Got a couple minutes left. So if you got any bets you want to plug in and get us to talk about here in the stream, put those in the chat over on YouTube, wherever you may be watching. We got a couple here from Fandals Sportsbook earlier on today. They tweeted asking if anybody had some. The veteran likes the Cubs total being too high. We talked to them before where we thought that they'd overcompensate it for the win. It's down to nine. I think that's about appropriate right now. Teague likes the Mets money line. Okay, let's go over here. Mets money line is minus one 18. Let me see what my numbers are saying about the Mets money line for today. I have the Mets winning 52% of the time. Plot odds 54%. So although I don't show value, it's pretty close. And I think I could talk myself into that one. I'm not gonna talk myself into it, but I will not talk you out of that one, I would say. Joel is seeing the Corbin Burns strikeout rate. He wants over seven and a half against the Cubs. Let's check out the juice on that Corbin Burns strikeout number now. It's still minus 102. Minus 102. That's not bad. So I've had 7.9, I believe, strikeouts. Minus 102 over seven and a half. I'm not betting that, but I think, again, it's not one that I'd talk you out of for today. All right, that is pretty much all we got here for today. Before we close up shop, Tom, any final thoughts? Any final bets you wanna plug in there before we send off the good people to go enjoy some freaking baseball in the year of 2022? No, I'm sticking with my main core bets would be the Void homerun, the Alonzo homerun, absolutely, and then the Bieber under. Those are my top three player props for today. I'll also look to add the Braves run line later. I just wanna make sure that starting lineup is there. I think it's a solid four bets, very modest amount to start the MLB season. Yep, I'm sticking with the Padres moneyline. I like the Darvish over five and a half or six plus strikeouts, the minus 134 right now. I like the Bieber under at six and a half at minus 124, I believe. Last check, I think those are primary ones still on the board. We need Jerry to get the Hassan Kim bet. And also he's got the details on the Cabray and Hayes extension as well here. So if you're in the narratives, check out the Keep Ryan Hayes there as well. Find Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom. He'll be giving out K-Props pretty often homerun props on sports grid the morning after as well. And up on numberfire.com. Tom, it was an absolute delight to talk to you today. Good luck with your bets and I'll talk to you again soon. Yep, same to you. Let's get the season started off right. Let's do it. I'm on Twitter at Jim Saunders, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. As mentioned, if you want some DFS thoughts and you do still have the solo shot every weekday over on the numberfire daily fantasy podcast feed, find that there, hit subscribe, enjoy. Go win yourself some cash, but happy opening day. Good luck to all you. Thanks for tuning in. We'll talk to you once again soon.