 Today we could do a recap show talking about a DFS slate where there were actual points scored And I could not be happier to discuss it It was a fun Sunday just have lineups that actually like did something had a pulse got us some money We're gonna break down what it all means going forward key role changes node injuries and much more as a recap We gain look ahead to week number nine. This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Ghadoula He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon. Happy Halloween to you. How you doing today? I'm good You know we had some points scored last week I guess yesterday for those listening on Monday, but look, you know, this game wasn't on the main slate But I learned a lot from the Packers Like let's just slow it down, you know, let's not rush into things You might be down 17, but just you know, like let's enjoy the ride and you know, we'll get there when we get there Brandon Good teams win Great teams cover Packers were great last night I don't know what you're talking about like slow things down to ensure Buffalo doesn't throttle you so that Jim can cash It's plus 10 and a half because Jim had a terrible betting day beyond that had a so tangent I My NASCAR bets this week were placed in a book that counts inspection Brad keselowski out disqualified So I lost money and I was I needed to pick me up despite having good DFS days. So honestly Hail to the Packers man, like I think that they had the right approach More power to him. Not more pace to him, you know, just ride it out, baby. Okay, so let's take it Yeah, I mean look and hey Based on the Packers philosophy Maybe there's still time for Brad keselowski to catch up, you know, maybe maybe he can get back into it You know, it's like Larry Bird said you never lose You just run out of time but for the Packers, they're never gonna run out of time and I feel like the There's no real analogy here the running backs on the week nine week eight slate We're like Ross Chastain false end all gas no brakes He's the wall retaining thing and you get to just cruise your way to glory We're gonna break down what those running backs did and the implications of it and much more brand I feel like for me from an overall like vibes perspective for week eight It was nice to kind of get a throwback slate where We actually had big point totals So like it wasn't my most profitable slate of all time like I had a good week I had a very good week. It was a nice week But like it was not my best week of all time in terms of like profitability But like I just felt better having actual points scored on Sunday So like I feel like my mood was better as a result of that. So it's kind of fun to get a throwback slate almost Yeah, it was I mean if you look at like the live leaderboard on on Fandall You see Alvin Camara AJ Brown Christian McCaffrey and Derek Henry all scoring over 35 Fandall points That takes me back to like heat check glory days where it's like yeah, baby You get the the running backs who are destined to score multiple times, you know have over a hundred You know 1550 scrimmage yards, whatever the case is for those guys, you know, yeah There's a receiver who goes off, but it's okay because we you know We hit on the running backs and you know, we both liked McCaffrey this week a good bit We both talked about Derek Henry and said that there was a very clear path to his doing what he did But you know, we also had right below that Tony Pollard and Deontay Foreman. So oh It was a big there's a gloss over Alvin Camara who was the top love for both of us, you know I know he was very popular But like let's not just disregard that to well I let off with him because he scored the most points because he's the best player on the planet Sure. And look finally because we were talking about you talk more about his red zone role than I do So it's a credit to you, but he scored twice outside the red zone. I don't get credit for that Well, it's just a matter of Getting the ball in your hands being good and not having scored that stuff matters. Yeah, and so That's that's kind of the stuff that we're looking for today You know who's underperforming based on their role and how does that affect? Week nine, which is weird to say I was right now at this week. I was like So let me be the first to say Jim. I can't believe it's already week It's any of the difference here now. I think at this point We're gonna break down week nine in just one second and get set breakdown What happened this past week breakdown Christian McCaffrey's new role Travis ETN as the lead back for the Jaguars and much more But first we're gonna talk about week number nine You can actually get your week nine line. Let's enter right now over on a fan duel calm the Sunday million for week nine is Already posted one point four million dollars in total prizes a five dollar entry fee could turn into 250 thousand dollars for you almost 25% of the field gets paid in this contest It's a it's a nice little contest structure for the top-end GP P over on a fan duel again five dollar entry 150 entries max one point four million dollars in total prizes $250,000 to first place if you want to fill out that lineup as we go along throughout the day Go to fandal.com or download the fandal app eligibility restrictions apply also a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire Daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Tom Vecchio is back with the daily ISO every week day Breaking down and be a DFS. We of course have PGA coming up tomorrow. I think there's a event this week Look ahead Jim We've in it this weekend as well I will have the final NASCAR podcast of the year coming up on later on this week to break down Phoenix talk more about Ross Chastain and Christopher Bell there as well all right here in the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed So make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcast Let's take a look now at week number eight We saw there in the headliner for week number eight was the new roles for Christian McCaffrey and Travis etn etn Of course playing in the London games not in the main slate, but His role without James Robinson was as good as you could have asked for he had 24 carries and three targets He turned that into 162 yards, but he had a 77% snap rate He had six out of eight red zone chances like he had a fumble in the red zone last week Which is like you know a little pause because maybe they'll scale it back Nope fooling into it. The low negative is that is that he did lose some routes to Michael hasty ran a route on 17 or 33 drop backs, but he's a legitimate feature back So they're at home against Vegas next week, which might be sneakily one of the better games on the main slate So Brandon name that salary on Travis etn Yes, I mean he did lose some routes But still out of 52% route rate caught all three of those targets and we just know that he's really explosive After the catch and just with the ball in his hands the red zone role fantastic 49 rushing yards over expectation, but still that means that he was a had an expected rushing output of about 107 yards, which is phenomenal That way if you know you don't have the best game you don't have those breakaway plays That workload is still great So means he's getting like good schemed touches like they're getting him the ball and he's not running up the gut for like a Yard like they're getting creative touches 63% rushing success rate according to the next-gen stats model, which is quite high. So you love what you see Trying to come like come up with some comps from what last week's salaries were just to get like context I know Kenneth Walker was 84 Dalvin I think was like a three I probably put ETN at like 83-84 Yeah, I think it's kind of like I Think that Walker is like not the worst comp for it because they actually have pretty similar roles like who lose some some routes But like efficient upside they've got some explosion to them. So I say they're Capable but not flawless. Yeah, well genus all this. Let's not come on How dare you? It's funny that the genus myth is the guy I'm getting mad at you for researching not the 2021 first overall pick I think that 83 is about appropriate and for next week trans ETN is $7,600. He is a write-down, correct? Let's write that one down. Okay. He's gonna be very popular, but also I don't care like Um, I'm just yuck. It's jock for a reason that game's gonna be sick. I don't mind some considering a pivot to like the Jaguar is passing game potentially at some point, but like I don't care, honestly, so it's it. I mean, we're gonna see Draft percentage numbers go up because it's a 10 game main slate. Yeah, so And frankly some of the better teams are off the main slate including the Eagles Baltimore Dallas San Francisco, so We'll be without a few key options at quarterback running back obviously, you know some wide receivers there, but I still think that ECN is gonna shape up is Knowing Travis ETN salary at 76. It's hard to envision a better play Without knowing the rest of the slate. Yeah, like unless a weird injury pops up Like it's hard to get better than that. Yeah, like it's gonna be hard to beat Like he has a very similar not that not at the same role as Alvin Camara But like it's a similar ish role and I loved Camara at 78 at home against the Raiders this week I think having ETN at 76 is gonna be Maybe not equally as fun as that but like it's there are similarities I would push back on that a little bit because Alvin Camara's had like a thousand targets per game Yeah, but he also there's no taste in hill on the Jax, so okay I just yet. Yeah, I would I would love for ETN to be having like six seven eight targets But hasn't quite been there just yet. Yeah, but he could he has that within his range of outcomes because he's a very good football player Christian McCaffrey he'll be on a buy next week. So not the same implications week nine But played his first full game with the 49ers 81% snap rates He had a passing rushing and receiving touchdown and the working game with Danny and Thompson game. Oh, yeah That's that is yeah, he was a great passer. Shout out shout out with Danny and Thompson for being great Nine targets 18 carries for McCaffrey He had six out of nine red zone chances to both these guys getting a lot of work in close Obviously the caveat here is there was no divo and he's a great player and that would alter the the role for sure But we have at least a baseline now for McCaffrey going forward like how high can we be on this guy knowing? What they can do with him with a fun chess piece in their arsenal Yeah, it's really tough because we didn't have divo this week and I'm not saying that like divos just are running back I'm sure divo loves this because he's not gonna be. Oh, yeah Yeah, but you know McCaffrey's gonna lose out some touches There's still gonna be enough work where he's like completely in a T in the elite tier I'm not trying to like downplay this at all. This is not like a It's not a no like a huge knock on McCaffrey. He got a really Sort of creative target in the end zone But he kind of just turned a flat into a well There's no one down here in the red zone or in the end zone so I'm gonna go for it And I'm gonna just like Make the sickest catch of all time for running back basically. Yeah, like that's that's fun. Yeah To red zone targets like he's gonna be involved I think the the hardest part might be that the red zone rule is gonna be Really strong, but he can still lose out to kiddle divo and even I you can the red zone like just those touchdowns, but you know Factoring in the the better offense which Still not a guarantee every week with their quarterback play Guarantee better than Carolina. Yes, not guarantee absolutely I would I think with the hesitancy of Having other viable options, I'd probably put him like let's say they're in the main slate next week 95 that's what I was gonna say probably not a full 10,000 but like I was thinking 93 or 95 Well, say I think sake one was 95 this week. I know that neutral matchup Would you prefer a sake one? Like let's say they're at home against Seattle deep for a sake one or do you prefer McCaffrey McCaffrey? I think I do too like I don't know How many guys do you pick over do you pick anybody over McCaffrey like if they're just we say they're at home against Seattle for hypothetical reasons um Maybe Derek Henry like but like that's even a maybe I don't think I would I think I go McCaffrey there, too I think I'd go McCaffrey. I think he's back to being the the guy that the guy that we should prefer But we're gonna get into we're gonna open like a whole can of worms where it's like, okay Well McCaffrey's maybe back Do do we have to prioritize him? Is he like a lock in cash games like he used to be that kind of stuff? Yeah, I think I think that whereas it used to be a lock I think it this year it'll depend on the situation depend on the context that probably should have been the case previously, too but like I think Pretty high on McCaffrey That was a great role It was kind of what you thought it might be with a guy like Kyle Shanahan and a good offensive piece around him So 72% route rate. Yeah, like that's you have three three snaps and the slot and three out wide He played some snaps with Jeff Wilson who might apparently get traded. There was some chatter about that potentially, but I See died alone. I got nothing. He's great. It was fun to watch him in that that scheme only one packer had a Better route rate than McCaffrey did this week It was a guy that tried to bench The game but then couldn't okay Let's think of some injuries here and stick with that same game because Cooper cup got rolled up on late in the game Heard his ankle. He said he thinks he got lucky But Shawn McVeigh was beating himself up after the game So cup might be banged up then Jefferson made his return 55% snap rate. He was not targeted Alan Robinson seven targets. That's good 54 yards, of course make sense He was the only guy other than cup to top 15 receiving yards. This offense sucks I hate it and I Don't think you can talk me into like liking this offense and now cup might miss time How would you handle them if that does happen where there's targets to be available? But also it's the worst offense has ever existed It's not the worst offense ever. It's the least juicy offense of all time and you will not talk me out of that Okay, no juice Stafford is Averaging negative point one oh EPA per drop back That's point oh for below expectation if you adjust for like if he played exactly what the defense allowed He'd still be below that We gavered drop rate eight and a half percent sack rate, which is bubbly gauge. I love Stafford like as a From what I know about him. He seems fun, but this is I have no temptation Here and whatever was going on in their backfield like they can't run the ball and they can't even like Feature a guy so yeah, it's always cup or bust and even even that I've been hesitant to play Cooper cup this year not not even because I don't typically roster receivers like it above 9000 but It feels a lot less scary to fade him Because of Stafford's it you know the whole teams in efficiency, but Stafford is struggling as a result of the team being down But like is that gonna change probably not like Create one explosive play. That's all I ask if you can do that I will consider going to this team, but you got to do it before I buy in their pace has also been They've been slowing it down a bit the past two games Right like like that's what they should do Like the Packers Yeah, bad teams should play slow again. They're a great team. So The Packers. Yeah, they covered again teams when great teams cover. Come on. Keep up. Keep up. Keep up. Keep up I Just think that like if you are giving more targets to Alan Robinson Van Jefferson Ben Scurronic I'd need a pretty big I need them to be super under salary to be there because like I think this offense could just be really bad They play Tampa Bay on the road next week. So rematch of that. Awesome. NFC Playoff game last year. Give me a give me a salary Not a give me a salary on what you would need Alan Robinson to be to want to roster him if we have no Cooper cup like 58. Oh No, he got the was it Josh Reynolds treatment 65 you seven thousand what? No way, yeah, I mean I I get it like would you rather get punched in the face or use our robin than $7,000 I think I take the punch it depends on who's punching but Most people I'll take the punch like line me up against a wall and just sock me real hard And I'll move on with my day. I will have zero Alan Robinson. What's van? Is he like 68? 58 I Don't want that either though. Like he had no targets like he's not a huge target earner to begin with like Higby probably 58 as well. I'd assume Higby 61 61 so like I'm more open to fucking ears defense Fit 47. I'd rather pay that than pay seven thousand for Alan Robinson. So what I'm thinking is Like Mike Evans Chris Godwin are just target monsters right now I could see myself mini stacking it with van because we're gonna we have Ten games. We have too fewer teams than we've sort of had for most of these main slates Values already been hard to find we're gonna have to do something imperfect. I would probably consider van again If there's no cop. Yeah, I Hope he plays No, actually, I hope he doesn't play so people use Alan Robinson seven thousand, but that's an egregious salary I don't know if I'll use him. I guess like oh You know speaking of bummers Jonathan Taylor heard his ankle in the first half He didn't return So the full game stats to be a business leading but Taylor has been banged up all year He got wrapped up like right away like he was getting that ankle re-wrapped He had 16 carries and a target on 38 snaps a 70% snap rate, but the team didn't move the ball a whole lot this week Probably because it's low volume We'll talk about the the offensive philosophy later on in San Ellinger, but Taylor didn't do a whole lot here He struggled all year long Do you think this is a buy low spot or do we just kind of need to like wait this one out until we get like a legitimate reason for hope So I've been trying to buy low on Taylor for weeks now thinking it would be like a galaxy-brained option and then he's using this week no like The the week where he was supposed to play after his injury, but right and didn't I was like, okay Well, I won't obviously not play him that week But I like the idea because he was like entering we were we were intrigued. He was 8,000 again the next week I was like, okay, like this is what I'm gonna do it. I didn't actually get there that much that week and now it's like It's like we like a theory of it, but we've never actually talked ourselves into it yet Yeah, it's been like it's it makes sense on paper or like To want to be there, but yeah He's not really doing a whole lot over Expectation he's at point one two rushing yards over expectation per carry. So basically just above Expected and he's been one of the better rushing yards over expectation guys in his career if He's Look Sam Aminger played better than like the generic stat line will show Yeah, but I don't know like if if this team needs to just run Taylor into the ground this year It almost seems like a lost cause of a year. Yeah, and so while that's more of like a Seasonal long sort of like maybe they'll shut him down eventually. It's like He's maybe maybe he's not gonna get the workload that he typically has and so I need the salary to be Around 8,000 again, maybe even lower than that. Yeah, I think I'm there too I probably would need a lower honestly just because like he doesn't seem to be like he still seems hurt and like until he's not hurt anymore It's hard for me to get super enthused. So I would need to hold off personally until so like give me a reason to buy back in I will but well, maybe if his salary is 6,800. Is it? Yeah Because we were both already on record of saying like just below 8,000 maybe like 78 76 like Etn or Jonathan Taylor. Oh, it's like my mile, right. So like If Taylor was actually 78, I wouldn't get there. So I guess based on that I mean, we also had etn higher than 76, but yeah, yeah So I'd be lying if I said I wasn't tempted I think that that at least makes it a discussion rather than a cross-off He said one touchdown and the first game he had a rushing touchdown He has not scored since then so two games since he came back from his injury He's had 85 yards in scrimmage and 76. That's not terrible I don't want to like talk myself into it though. Just because the salary is low Well, I think that what I need to do is like make sure I can actually bank on the production I'm not just doing it out of like principal kind of thing. Yeah, that's a big fear The name that comes into my mind of like Naughty Naughty. Yeah, it's like it's like how low is this hour gonna get like yeah, he's the He's the number one But he didn't have eight targets last week. Yeah, like well, they were more run heavy under Ellen Gerrits We'll talk about later on. Yeah targets might not come back, but What's that total against the Patriots probably 37 42 you can you can run a bit on the Patriots? It's thirty nine and a half. So it's thirty nine and a half He'll be a discussion point. I think that's low enough where he's actually a consideration Which I kind of wish he wasn't I don't know if you're hearing me, but what it's not 42 points It's 39 and a half I'm just so like Gross game again total matter as much six-point dog. I think too. So yeah, I totals like 17. That's not right That's there imply totals low Imagine early September or like yeah, Jonathan Taylor 6,800. He's a maybe yeah, exactly Mark Anders was limited in week eight with a shoulder injury. He played just 10 offensive snaps and had five targets Rashad Babin also had a foot injury Both guys came in banged up and obviously didn't play a whole lot here John Harbaugh said after the game that neither injury was serious, but I think it's important to note in case Andrew's were to miss time that Isaiah likely would be pretty sick seven targets 77 yards in the touchdown so How do you view this going forward? It's kind of similar to the JT discussion honestly because like they're playing their injury and that can linger for a long time There's like shoulders for pass catchers. That's not a fun situation. He has the knee injury to for Andrew's too. So how are you viewing these guys going forward and Just hypothetically if Andrews were to sit, what would you do with Isaiah likely? Love likely if there's no Andrews the role was really good and he's fun and love likely sounds like a love actually sequel Prequel, I don't know. We'll workshop it. I'll get the I'll get the the interns working on that that we don't have But yeah, as far as Andrews goes, I'm kind of glad they're just not in the main slate Yeah, so I don't have to worry about it. They play New Orleans on Monday night We'll get it a week I mean he'll get an extra data to rest up from playing on Thursday So I have plenty of time to rest up. So this might even be like a he's gonna miss. It's just well Maybe see if he's limited The big selling point for Mark Andrews aside from talent is just a workload that is Sort of unmatched like even Travis goes He's been more productive but like the workload for Andrews has been another tier. Yeah if they have Like another tight end who can do some of the stuff that Andrews can do and they don't need to run Andrews into the ground in the middle The season Why don't we they would do that? I think it'd be more so like more two tight end sets They're not using your boy to Marcus Robinson as much as they have been The Mark Robinson on good teams He's just if you could choose between Isaiah likely routes and demarcus Robinson routes you would pick Isaiah likely correct I just want to make sure you're not a you're not a trader What do you mean by a rat like what am I choosing? I don't understand the like would you rather watch a would you rather? I don't understand the question and I won't respond to it. Okay. You were gonna say the wrong answer then So I'm gonna move on No, I love I love Isaiah likely and yes, I'm much more likely to play Isaiah likely than demarcus I'm not playing to Marcus Robinson. I just I'm not even you is cheer for would you cheer for and Isaiah likely route or My I'm not cheering for routes. I am Gus Edwards sustained a hamstring injury in the fourth quarter on Thursday night He was not really the lead back before that. So He was on the injury report coming in. It was kind of similar to Bateman and Andrews, honestly Ken and Drake had a 67% first half snap rate Justice Hill 18% Gus Edwards 15% It's like they did use Drake quite a bit They don't really give a running back a full-time role, but JK Dobbins on IR Gus Edwards banged up Would you consider Drake or Justice Hill or can we keep on crossing off this back field? if there are if there are just two of them and We can maybe think that It's Ken and Drake then maybe if the risk is that they just elevate Mike David or like they bring my Davis back So like I hate this I hate talking about Ravens running backs It's probably I hate it more than like when we have to talk about in the past I mean we have a remandry Stevens and now like talking about like the Patriots running backs like just no like we're not using them in DFS, but like I hate talking about the Ravens because it's they could have one guy and Then just signed for more and give everyone a 30% snap rate Yeah, so I'm out. Yeah, I think I'd rather hold off as well like Hill and Drake are like the season-long options, but they're not DFS options. I don't think there's a path to some I'm glad I picked up Ken and Drake in season-long. I have no interest in using him in DFS I forgot I had him on a best ball Dynasty League and I was like, oh, that's fun to get 17 free points I wasn't aware of but now it's out of that. I'm good Mark Ingram played just five snaps before leaving with a knee injury on Sunday Alvin Camara Actually, he had like a good early snap rate And then Terence did him came in for the Raiders and the Saints like ah, we don't need to use this guy anymore He's been awesome. So finished with a 73% snap rate, but he's about 82% most of the first half Camara scored three times one rushing yet to pass to receiving touchdowns 18 carries and 10 targets That's disgusting workload. He now has at least six targets and five straight games and at least nine and three straight Ingram missing time may have helped here, but I feel like Camara was kind of building towards this for a long time So not in the main slate but name that salary hypothetically of Robin Camara going forward Yeah, 85% first half snap rate the first time he's been above 71% all season So did help the full season or the full game snap rate. I definitely not indicative. So Thanks for that that catch Just want to give Jim props for for being a good host on well I remember I had that game open a lot on the next gen stats tab because I was like tracking Camara So I was like so excited about everything that was happening It's one of those where go back in the morning for first half snuff stuff and I just overlooked it, but I mean So if we have McCaffrey, we said 93 to 95 Camara still an imperfect Opportunity for touchdown so maybe similar to like McCaffrey in that sense where he's still involved in the red zone But they have other guys that they can get touchdowns to yeah, they don't have a battered ram like hill Right using a very specific way then I Want to say 89 or 9,000. Yeah hesitant to have a nine in front of it I think 87 is where I'd settle in just because of those things But that's still very high and still very deserving of that and he still has good upset So happy to get the Camara game in the bag on a main slate rather than a non-main slate Devonta Parker played just one snap before a game-ending knee injury for the Patriots Parker had been playing heavy snaps in the Patriots offense so that led to a Expansion once again for Kendrick Bourne to 81% Kobe Myers led the team in our outrage at 90% type one Thornton 83% But the only players to get more than four targets were Jacoby Myers at 12 and Ramon or Stevenson with eight We can kind of lump Stevenson in here as well He he cemented himself as being the team's lead back in Damian Harris's second game back I was a bit skeptical of the first one because like okay first game back etc. but like Stevenson had a 16 carries on top of the eight targets for 143 yards We've talked about Myers. I thought the sour was too high entering this week Stevenson has a I think a majority backfield role now we can feel better about that but how would Parker's absence Effect you view the Patriots if at all and how high are we on Stevenson going forward? Still a little bit hesitant on Stevenson just because he could get those touchdowns stolen love the route rate above 50% for any running back We know that if they're trailing he should be even more Involved they are touchdown Overdogs next week against the Colts. So don't love to see that We can't use that term that term is used in a commercial for a different company that we are No, we're not gonna reference Well, I've seen it on YouTube like thousands of times. So I don't think I don't think anyone owns owns that I'm just saying Well, when I see commercials for love fan do I see other commercials I just fast forward because guess what I don't watch anything live. So just fast forward to all the commercials, but Stevenson I'll probably ask you what hit what you think for his salary first because I Don't have a great. I never a great grasp on Stevenson. I think I'm always lower than consensus Yeah, I would say Oh boy, um Because he's showing like a 73 76 I think I said 73 He's 8,000. I don't think I'll get there in that game. Yeah personally Like it's not egregious. I don't think Um, it's not good The reality like the chance for me to get to remand rate 8,000 instead of etn at 76 seems And that's not like uh, I'll play him in every single lineup. I might but yeah, but That's a hard one to To get to I think what about the past catchers here. So Jacobi Myers is going to be between 66 and 68 for the rest of his life Yeah, um, I think that's fair if I like the other side of a game I don't necessarily love this Colts game with the total below 40 I'm assuming he's again 66 to 68 68 Thornton Probably the more interesting of the other two Because you can get some rushing work, but I don't know if they'll really do that with Harris back as much Probably out on that. Yeah, I think I'm probably I think I'm probably not going to play any pager. It's next week. I hope not. That's my goal. I think personally Uh, that's a pretty good goal every single week. I agree. Unless it's remand, right? Yeah, um, typically that's okay Err smith needs an MRI on his ankle. Um, johnny munt scored a tight end. Uh, We almost have like a micah sickie mac holland situation because There are some similarities between johnny munt and adam felon. Luckily johnny munt wears a number in the 80s whereas felon is 19 So that saved me from a oh boy. I got some a touchdown from my felon lineups and then didn't so it saved me So thank you johnny for a number in the 80s Uh, 39 route rate months rule could Increase if err smith were to miss time, but I think the better takeaway is boosting up adam felon and kj osborne Um, how would you view osborne or felon? I guess an osborne if err were to miss time? Yeah, felon's been involved in recent weeks. We talked about him and that value range and we were trying to find receiver options for this week kj osborne 87 route rate five targets just the two catches for eight yards, but um We've seen him get downfield work This past week the downfield work was funneled to jesson jefferson and adam felon felon with a 9.8 yard 8ot this week is fun I don't think I would go to munt but if especially osborne because he didn't do anything is like Super low salaried. I'd be open to it Yeah, I probably wouldn't i'm not sure what his like ceiling is I guess even if he gets a slight increase in his like workload with no err smith. He has not had more than 73 yards this year. He's topped 41 once So I think the yardage upside is pretty questionable there feeling like hasn't shown yardage upside, but I think he potentially could Because he does get the downfield work as you mentioned. He has a 26 deep target share in his in each game this year Seven targets overall sunday. He now has seven targets in six consecutive games So felon is 62 again. I feel like I'll probably be okay with him again in a kirk cousins revenge game, mind you Um, I think I think I'd rather let's go to felon rather than guessing on osborne Yeah, I mean I'd rather get there. I will say that uh err smith for the season 13 and a half percent target share Osborne 12.7 percent. I think there's some room to grow into like a Okay Not a receiver if you were tied down I consider but he's not so Uh christian watson left after just six snaps due to a concussion Only one packer had a route rate better than 66 percent, which is romeo dobs at 88 percent semi walkins second and routes at 21 He had just one target for three yards semi walkins revenge game didn't matter We'll talk about them in the philosophical shift section because they were pretty run heavy On sunday, let's know now dig into the roll changes here from week number eight And just want to talk about tony pollard even though zeke Will be back after their buy it sounds like and sounds like he'll go to his usual roll according to jerry jones What could be wrong? uh pollard He had uh three total touchdowns 147 yards in scrimmage He did lose some snaps but part of that was because they were just up big and didn't really need to use them at times The cowboys on a buy they said they're gonna get zeke Back and jerry jones said we're going to go as zeke goes So pollard isn't gonna have the same roll in week nine, but or in week 10 I should say but how should we be viewing pollard going forward? Given that like He doesn't need to have A 90 snap rate to go bananas Yeah, that's tough. Um Wasn't like early career alvin chimera like doing stuff on super limited snaps Yeah, because he earned a lot of targets and like the they were good targets like there's some Some overlap there Some but I wasn't saying like complete overlap just more like might be one of those situations I have a hard time thinking that pollard's salary is going to be low in week 10 Just out of safety of like pay of seek doesn't play right exactly got to be we got to protect ourselves here um I still am going to be hesitant to bank on someone who has a A team that actively says they want the other guy to be the guy Yeah, pollard can do it in limited snaps. We saw that you know, we see we've seen that numerous times throughout his career, but If he goes so it's been like a 60 40 split for most of the season if it's not like 50 50 even That's just not what I want to see so Yep It's unfortunate like I'd rather use him in a 50 50 split than zeke, but I also didn't want to use zeke Especially because that pollard's salary are probably up so I don't know I if zeke misses more time obviously it's a different discussion, but Based on the way it is right now. I'm not going to bank on pollard Carving out a bigger role or like a big enough role to be viable at his likely salary So that's a bummer, but it was fun while it lasted other bummer deandre swift was back in theory But he still lost a lot of work to ball williams kind of like a transformer out there because he had a lot of like extra padding on his shoulder and stuff like that It looked kind of heavy It was weird like because of the equipment not like, you know, like he looked like he looked weird Williams out carried swift 10-5 swift had two red zone targets But jamal three carries in the red zone craig reynolds had a red zone carry as well Swift just looked weird. Like I think that's the way I'd phrase it Are we just kind of out on swift until he gives us a reason to buy back in or what's your view here? Yeah, I think that we need to be 53% route rate you like to see that but Not getting any of the four red zone carries is You could maybe write it off as like a weird blip, but this is what this team has done all season with him and in the past they just you know honestly If you use them you got Bailed out by that touchdown they're receiving touchdown It just seems weird that he's even on the field in the red zone. So that's if that's the case That's not really a dfs running back. You want to build around especially at an elevated salary So I guess the the real question is there three and a half point underdogs Against the packers next week the total is up Name a salary for deandre swift where you'd be intrigued 67 I was yeah, I was thinking 7 000 probably What's his salary 75? I don't I don't go quite there. It's a good on paper matchup, but don't care Yeah, I just like Etn or swift like it's etn for sure. Oh, yeah By a decade for sure and I don't even think that swiss and his tier as to be like a viable pivot either off of etn chalk Deontae foreman made good on an opportunity to be the primary back For the carolina panthers 66 snap rate. He had 26 of 34 running back carries foreman 43 route rate too, which is pretty good despite earning just one target He also had 11 out of 15 red zone chances to the team So they kind of just leaned into letting deontae foreman cook Now looking forward to next week carolina is on the road facing since natty eight and a half point dogs named that salary for deontae foreman in a different context than what he was in this week Um, do we know if chuba hover will be back? You mean chubbered? Um Like did he I don't know if he practiced at all wasn't that all that he did Um, let's say there's no no hovered. Um, that's not a deontae foreman game script It's so hard now knowing that johnathan tanner 68 Well, just don't think about that think about like what I I can't I cannot think about it Um, I don't think I could go there if he was above 7 000 so I'll go 69 Yeah, I think They're still gonna try to run him while they can so it's a question of how long can they stay in this game? and Not really sure. Um, I think with jamar chase being out Maybe they can stay in a little bit longer, but still pretty tough I would say because we know he can go bananas You kind of hatch from above 7 000 so I'd say like his salary should be like 72 or so He's 73 I think that like that can work for game stacks because we know that he has a banana ceiling if they keep it close And you're kind of assuming they keep it close if it's a game stack situation so Yeah, not off the map, but not super desirable not like an etn cash game kind of play Yeah, Cincinnati likely without chase for next week I know he's not going to ir but then they're also on a short slate like a short week So maybe they keep it a little bit closer, but once again like with etn there Unless it's a pure mid tier running back week, but uh foreman or jonathan taylor next week What is this world? I don't know. I can't give you an answer to be fully honest Do you want a foreman as an eight and a half point underdog or jonathan taylor? It's tough. I don't I can't even I don't know I guess we'll try to I wish I could give you a different answer, but I think my lack of an answer is an answer in itself Uh, this one's not really a role change, but greg delsich's role remained really good this week He had five targets with two of those deep turned into 87 yards They're on by this week and the offense has had its issues, but Once they're back name me a sour for greg dulcich because I feel like it should be like decent Probably like 57 58 Yeah, put him in the enjoku range like a guy who's not going to get like massive volume Not the best offense, but gets a yardage. I think that's right Just just below goddard like and where enjoku used to be. I think that's about where I'd have him I think that he's very much enjoku like I think and that's a good thing I've used enjoku a lot. So I want to say that as like a compliment I think he'll be in play as long as the salary doesn't get too high But I also don't think it will so Dulcich's role really good We'll circle back to him once they come off their buy But just want to note that like really good role and someone I think we'll be talking about in the show The preview shows in the near future and the Jets first game with no breeze hall Michael Carter was the primary back, but it was still a committee Carter had a 55 snap rate tie johnson 33 james robinson 21% in his Jets debut Carter at seven carries Robinson at five Carter at seven out of ten running back targets It's a committee It's not a great offense. None of these guys are super super talented. Imo So were you okay just kind of crossing off his back wheel for the time being? Yes, but They're 12 and a half point underdogs against the bills. Could you consider? No I don't know you're gonna have sorry Just saying that could you consider Michael Carter in a bring-back and hopes that he gets 10 targets? Nope. Okay, absolutely not Not a chance. Nope Nope, don't mean at 6000. Nope I don't want to do it Can't make me especially like because like there's a possibility robinson's role increases It is. Oh, yeah, it likely will I just think you're no you can be like All right, jim. Okay Uh, Kyle Pitts led the Falcons with nine targets. He's back They threw nine times which is I think the biggest headliner here He now has a 35 target share over the past two games, which is seven per game So it's calm down here, but the Falcons run heavy offense Would you be willing to change your view on pits if the target shares are back up? Even though we know they don't want to throw It's at least different where I I couldn't quite Consider it. I think maybe they're realizing that They need to involve him more or else they have throw the ball once or twice. Maybe So, I mean like we look I'm not Well, jim. I think jim will be all right with this, but like we've had Run heavy offenses in the past and considered, you know, one or two guys who had absurdly high target shares I'm thinking of like a really run heavy ravens team where it's like You could maybe consider this one guy because he's getting like 30 of the targets And that's not a great share But he's the guy or one of the two that they throw to I think he's probably in that bucket Where if the if the target shares are gonna stick and be high He's at least not a complete cross-off where he was on a run heavy team and not getting a target share So I think it is a little bit different So what's salary you thinking on pits at home against the chargers next week? Um To be honest, I try not to look at what his salary is so I'm not tempted each week. So I don't know what it has been Yeah Probably like 58 63 It is do the thoughts. Yeah, okay Do the thoughts that we just mentioned about pits mean we should also consider drake london Or not as much um, I mean his So, what's he over the past? Two weeks here. He's 96 targets 91 route rate three targets per game 15 target here. So like the thing is I think what's happening is london was Featured early and that's kind of going away. I don't know if it's a scheme thing because they're like, well Other like if defense is like they're only thrown at the drake london. So like let's just cover him Um So it's probably similar to where like we liked london early where it's like we know that they're not It's gonna throw it a ton But they're throwing it to him on 35 because he had like a 35 target share to start the season Maybe it's just the the maybe it just flipped There's still there's still a chance that the rug gets pulled out and kyle pits gets two targets for 19 yards I think he had two of those games back to back or whatever, but yeah It's a consideration, especially in games where we Might want the other side and I think next week we might want some of the the other side of that game Yeah, I think I might be more inclined to use london than pits next week Just because I think pits will probably people will there be enthusiasm. It's a fun game, etc Etc coming off a big game. I think I'd rather go london at 50. I didn't know sorry. It was 56 I figure he was sold 6,000. Yeah, I think london's back on that like And again, we talked about this this trend leading into this week The value guys and you want them to be in high scoring games, which is obvious But like you really got a nitpick a little bit more. Yeah, and now that he's finally in a game where there might be points I think the other thing that I would note on this is like as you know, I'm very okay Using popular players. I'm okay swallowing the chalk. I don't want to swallow chalk on this team With either guy if it's if pits is popular. I don't want a piece if london is popular I don't want it Because they're just like very very very multiple obvious paths to failure And that's situation where you can have bad chalk This is one of the spots where it's and this is not like a There's not like an attack, but the counter The counter to gem's usual thing is like drake london hasn't had over 55 yards in Six straight games like what's the yardage upside here should we just cross him off regardless? Well, he's had he's shown it this year and I don't want to like ignore because like pits is active in week two when he had 86 So like I don't want to ignore that. It's still within his range of outcomes. So But it's not for kj osborne at all kj osborne hasn't had 86 yards this year. Do you have like 73 or something? Was kj osborne the first round pick or was he undrafted? actually he's undrafted but like Because that's that that was he the eighth overall pick. That's why that's why we're playing nodgie harris every week, right? I can't remember was kj osborne of the eighth overall pick. It's tough to tough to remember Well, basically have a quarterback as good as marcus mariotta. No, okay, cool Based on that. Yeah, I'm surprised you didn't pick up on the fact that I said like this reminded me a little bit of like No, you compare mariotta to a little mar I think I might feel like if I had done that with a different quarterback He wasn't marcus mariotta. You'd be like there's yeah, that checks out With mariotta. Yeah, that checks out. Go ahead continue. Yeah, I'm gonna notice there's like cooper rush. You'd be like, are you nuts? Pooper rush. Anyway, let's go to situations to monitor. What else did you pick up on this week? when looking at usages So we're gonna bring back the etn zone the scale. Yeah, someone on twitter said that they liked the etn so the way it works is We had tried to see tn in situations to monitor for like 16 straight weeks Or like four And it was like, okay How excited are you about this? Like how like how anxious are you to monitor this? So like if it's someone who is like This didn't go well, but like where he most hurt against Heading into last week or this week where he's like, oh 80 percent or 78 snap rate facing the lines I'm not about eight out of 10 etn's. That's kind of the way it works um if it's like You know Kyle pits got some more targets, but it's still a bad offense. I'm like, I'm at three etn's there It's like a measure of enthusiasm for guys who rolls haven't changed yet, but might be Yeah, and confusingly, uh a 10 out on the on the etn scale is not a like Super or it's not like what travis etn used to be early on in the season. It's a travis etn is now You know just uh, you know, it it's more fun, but I think like in the reverse etn zone Oh boy, uh, it is Leonard for net where it's like How bad is it getting is it's like still? You know where like where is it because this is not like a reshorred white etn watch It's like a Leonard for net how Where is it now? But he had a 76 snap rate on thursday up from 59 a week ago And this is a bit of a roach rock test I think because he's been under A 65 snap rate in three of his past five games, but also above 75 in two of the past three so like what He's probably like a seven On the etn zone because if he's like back to lenny Like that's super appealing. So again, is it more The sub 65 snap rate in three of the five or better than 75 percent of the past and two of the past three like what Which is it? He's devin singletary It brings me no happiness to say this He's just devin singletary his red zone role is underwhelming right now his yardage upside connoisseurs like his role is okay He's better in neutral scripts than he is in any other script Like he's he's he's devin singletary. Well, it's a three point spread next week against the rams. Give me a salary 69 he's 71 Okay, yeah, that's fair. That's so like Deontay foreman as an eight point eight and a half point underdog on a questionable offense or Leonard for net On a questionable offense with an honest questionable offense with a worst quarterback Tinder top narrative ain't going great, man But well, he's not going to be playing prime time Yeah, but like Shouldn't shouldn't the nighttime be like tinder tom's time to shine? I gotta know. Well, it wasn't on thursday, but He hey man, he's on like he said it's on like a military schedule where during football season It's it's not like he's out having fun. He's doing well. We now tinder tom. Don't forget But answer my question. Do you want to form an online for net? For net, but I don't feel happy about it. Right. So like it's more We're okay Chasing the 75 plus snap rate rather than saying that those are the two blips rather than the The three out of the five that are a little more I I just think he's devin singletary We knew he's using more in a neutral script. He has very serious limitations though So never get too excited if he's gonna be popular. That's what I do Chris Godwin has double-digit targets in four of his past five games. Mike Evans has done it in too straight again it's not pretty overall, but They're they're like a dk matkaft how to lock it just getting all the targets with the worst quarterback Yeah, then then with rust last year. I agree Um I think that they're appealing I don't know the ranking gino one rust last year two and tom tinder tom three Trying to track this here I still think there's some life to tom brady, but Yeah, they're they're basically cash game hopes I don't know if I can get there because mike evans always has a He's like hasn't been below 76 in like 10 years. So evans is 77. Godwin is 67. Wow. That's a write down I'ma write that one down. Yeah, okay. Ooh tinder tom fire it up, baby Chris Godwin. Thank you, buddy. Uh, where am I here? I had to go. I just scroll down to write down. Oh my goodness. Why did that happen? My my like interest level in the buccaneers just changed radically Look, I've said it for years. I love the box. I believe yeah Tinder tom narrative is a positive. Uh, there's no sleepy tom, you know, whatever. Yeah, we're good Rondale more eight targets 92 yards looks great But 85 of those jars were after the catch his eight. I was 1.5 Because they don't went up as the game went along because that negative point one when I first checked I'd love after his touchdown by the way. I'd love to love the volume But it's really hard to like not all targets are created equally Is he just courteous amul? In a worse offense. Yeah rude Michael gallop Michael gallop Back up for us. Love that involved early in the game wound up the 23 target share 93 route rate He's still going to be volatile But in games when we like Dallas, I don't think we should Hold week seven against him At all and I think we can go back to him Uh Not exactly like the same upside, but maybe like a Gabe Davis sort of thing. It's like It might bust, but it might be a strong performance Elijah Moore, uh Definitely didn't get the squeaky wheel narrative in his favor. No role improvement there 16 route rate. Just a single target Denzel mims 74 route rate was the guy behind Garrett Wilson at 98 percent. You know, it's bad if the Jets are like, hey Let's use Denzel men's this week. Like yeah, yeah Uh, I think Garrett Wilson again, we talked about him at 54 had a good game. I think he's probably someone that Uh, we should be open to more Especially if the game isn't completely terrible the game was not great this week But you could justify wilson as a bring back in in bill stacks next week Yeah, he'd be the guy over michael carter that that we're going to be going to Tyler conkland did lead the team with the 29 target share. You know six or more targets in consecutive games It's it's something uh terrace marshal product a two and a half on the etn scale three I like this profile coming out, but 95 route rate this week 86 last week Again fun prospect. So at least that's enjoyable, but Really hard to like anyone on this team catch and passes And then just a passing note, um Derek car is very average And it's fun Uh, okay, so let me pull up their game logs here. So They are wild, okay, so I have like Early down passing efficiency compared to expectation based on the offense you faced or defense you faced This is them in order negative 0.39 negative 0.32 negative 0.01 positive 0.29 negative 0.32 positive 0.36 negative 0.38 They are either good or dog do And the good ones are kind of Hard to predict I guess I just Like I can't justify Devonte Adams Like it's it's weird uh, they're playing the jaguars next week and I don't know. Did we talk fully about like liking the jaguars on this show or was that before the show? Oh, that was before that was me. You don't you don't have to associate yourself with it if you don't want to Well, I just didn't know but i'm saying like you like the jaguars next week What like do you have any thoughts on Bringbacks is it just josh jacob's are you lower on josh jacob's due to the fact that this team is Has a lot of letdowns Well, I think that like there that's always been in the range of outcomes for them because of situations So it didn't really change me there I just think that like because I wasn't into jacob's this week. Honestly, I didn't use them at all. Um I think um I don't know. Um, I don't like it doesn't bother me for jacob's. I don't think I would use him. I would also like I still think that like the spike games are within the range of outcomes for devonte adams. So I'd still use him too um So I don't think it actually shifted for me that much It's more so just like confirmation that they're they're floor sucks, which is fine They're averaging We don't really look at like points for a game. I was just curious 23.3 points for a game with the Zero factored in Yeah, like it seems like they're doing more but it's Name that samurai jacob's x week against the jags Was he this week like 86 or something using 9000 9000 Probably 86 Yeah, I think so around 87 or so he's 88. So that's fine Uh, divante is down to 81 I can be interested there. Yeah I can get to that range so that combined with etn being under salary that probably is uh a very doable I don't think we're talking that passing game. So christian kirk is 63 In 96 yards last week I can get by christian kirk at 63. I can go back to that uh zay Jay zones is $5,500 only three targets this past week, but You had 10 weeks before that he had 85 yards in week three so you can get to 85 Uh, your boy evan ingram. I'm not going to claim this one is 52 He's been getting a lot of targets. Oh has he been yardage upside shish. Oh, okay. I will meet you. Um I think that this is that kind of guy sometimes you know, I'm like, oh evan ingram. You're like, no not a chance Yeah, but like has it burned me yet? Did not use him. No, so I don't have any tight end ever burned us aside from like Mark andrews and travis helsey. They're gonna all drop 40 on the jets one week, and I still think about it nightly It's bad real bad. Oh, yeah Nobody cares about my season long team, but he had two blow up games that year I played the same manager both like it was like So I'm assuming I haven't you've been muted. Good. Enjoy. Um, okay. I'm going to dive into my situations to monitor I guess you can unmute yourself. That's that's a go. Can't keep me down Can't keep me down. How can you unmute yourself? Can I permanently meet? I can kick you out ban from studio or kick from studio Oh, we'll see him drastic. Anyway Darius laden kind of sorda has an okay role for the giants. You can say no to this one That's okay. Uh, he led with six targets in 66 yards this week He has 55 plus yards in three of the past four games Wanda Robinson played four fewer snaps. So, you know a good snap rate But not a lot of usage marcus johnson led, but he's not a target earner The proper takeaway here is likely just to avoid everyone, but I would say you said two and f etns for terrace marshal. I'm at about two and f etns for Darius slayton Keeping an eye on him because he can't get downfield work. I think he's a good player. They were just kind of out on him Um, I think he can play a bit. So I'll keep an eye on him. What's the etn for wanderl? Also two and a half That's like more important to me because the role should be better, but like If it's not going to be then I think they're both a two and a half honestly Just because slayton can get can get downfield work. Yeah David montgomery still has not fully given way to clueless herbert's uh, monty out snapped herbert's 68 percent to 30 percent Herbert though had 99 yards on 16 carries and monty lost a key fumble I think it's worth monitoring, but i'm not chasing herbert yet. I would say i'm probably at about Four and a half etns for herbert whereas the consensus is probably closer to six or seven So that's where i'm at right now. Yeah, this just feels like uh Zeke and pollard in a different division. You can't will it to happen Yeah In their first game with not without mike boon mother and gordon and latinus murray split work Gordon had more snaps and ran twice as many routes, but murray out carried in 14 nine and murray looked good Hashtag film guy Um, I think his role could expand but for now neither guys really in play brian rovinston's role got reduced Antonio gibson and jd mckissick led the team with a 36 snap rate apiece Robinson 25 so just keep on ignoring this backfield. They are firmly locked into zero etns. I think until further notice Let's go to philosophical changes. The first one is uh the colts their first game with sam ellinger They were pretty run heavy They had a 41 early down first half pass rate ellinger played decent though He had a 0.17 passing that expected points per drop back across 25 drop backs lee yards around 0.07 So but well, he funneled nine targets to michael pittman. Alec pierce the only other guy to get more than three So we talked about jt earlier, but how are you viewing the passing game now that we've seen ellinger out there for one game? Uh, michael pittman had at least one drop that I saw that was pretty costly Could have made first time he got a ball more than 17 yards downfield this year and he dropped it It was 19 yards. So still does not have a 20 plus yard target, but Yeah, so I mean the efficiency could have been even better. Uh, pittman also You know, I'm not saying like absolutely could have scored but got stuffed at the goal line on a little shovel pass and uh, didn't make any extension at all and just kind of I'm content with this. It was like we'll get down to the inch line. Um, but I can't play michael pittman If he's not getting true downfield work Um, I will say and especially if this team wants to be be more run heavy. I will say that ellinger is gonna People were tilting on twitter about his production It's gonna look like he was inefficient and not good. He was a lot better than I expected That's not to say that he was phenomenal So i'm actually higher on this offense because of what he showed I had a completion rate over expectation of plus 6.8 points 56 percent passing success rate And one thing to note is that this team has been playing up in pace. Um over their past three games Uh, they lead the league and adjusted pace Again, the pass rate is its own conversation, but it's a little bit more efficient. Unfortunately I don't think I can really build around alex pierce. It's like a value play week after week. So I'd rather using them pittman I would too assuming He's 55 just yeah like assuming in pittman's probably what 7 000 or 83 because people love 64. Okay, please Okay, that's different. Um I don't want to hurt this alan robin than 7 000. I'm mad about this So like would you play pittman? I hope you game next week my hope That's one of the situations where I kind of hope he gets steamed up because of the salary and because of the targets The he's gonna be an optimizer Favorite it's not gonna be alan robin since it's 7 000 without if cups out Like it's gonna be michael pittman number one play as the optimizers at 64. It's just so bland like he's like I don't want like I don't there is a path to him skewering me for not using him because he gets a lot of volume But like he needs to like Use the yak to get there 64 is low enough where it's not awful and but like I still I would hope that he's popular so I can have an easy guy to fade Yeah, rather than dwell on it. I'll wait and see what this salary scroll looks like Yeah, and then we'll figure out how uh, how viable he might be. Yeah, I agree. They were I think ellinger was actually okay They were 0.04 above expectation on early downs passing There wasn't a lot of volume for that because they were pretty run heavy It was 20 early down pass early down drop backs. So, you know, um They were above expectation whereas matt ryan so like for the full season They are sorry talking away from the mic trying to read off my other computer for the full season they are 0.04 below expectation And so ellinger was 0.04 above so I think he played better than What people are saying I talked about the eagles and how horizontal their offense was after week six and they opened it back up this week jillen hurts his eight out was 11 yards even with a super positive game script He was four out of six on deep throws for 129 yards and four touchdowns on those deep throws Uh, he's sick. Uh, so I had that as like a A slight blemish on an otherwise very good resume. I'm removing that blemish. I think that they are Now fully back on the net like, you know, no real concerns for me So, yeah, this is um something I brought up before they went into buy when you when you flagged this the Steelers are 29th and passing a dot allowed And they were able to throw it downfield this week So hurts has an a dot and games against teams outside the top 20 in a dot allowed of 9.1 In three games and you played three consecutive games against teams inside the top half It's it's been 4.6. So probably scheme related They're probably good enough and willing enough to just take what's available and not force things So I think that that might be the real takeaway is if they play teams that are Good at blanketing the downfield pass like maybe they're gonna rain it in And they're thursday night this week, but if anyone's curious, houston is 18th and passing. You don't allow it So it'll be real off. We're already out there and I still like you go for like four hundred yards If you wanted to so yep, I agree Uh with malik willis starting the titans did not throw they refused He had 10 total pass attempts. They're only down first half pass rate was 36 Willis threw one total pass in the second half regardless situation one total pass, uh I think this likely signals they'll go back to riotan hill when they can because they didn't trust him at all But it also means that willis will be like from a dfs perspective if he wants to be in the slain again He's more high floor due to russian than he is high ceiling because you do need passing as well In order to generate a ceiling a dfs is a quarterback And I don't know if we can bank on that really any takeaways for you from them Um, they played a little bit faster, but their pass rate over expectation was minus 35.6 percent For context the bears rank last in the full season at minus 16.6. So that's I don't know how i don't know how negatives and percentages work, but that's like double If you just look at the the points there, but I was surprised he he didn't account for more of those rushes He had just a five for 12 yards. I figured he would be You know they used dantra hilliard a little bit for eight for 83. So like He's I can't play malik willis I do think a backfield dantra hilliard is like a wildcat quarterback would be kind of fun He's got some juice So like dantra hilliard wildcat quarterback or henry is a wildcat quarterback that'd be kind of fun hilliard had three carries for over 10 yards on eight attempts and henry had seven So The text is pretty good not gonna lie. I think dantra hilliards a good complimentary back The Texans on at least 10 carries alone gave up 100 rushing yards with just those 10 breakaway plays That's sick This is why we had a full trend on thursday show about how bad they are They're just retching With injuries of pass catcher the packers are a very run heavy sunday night They had 12 rushes to 10 passes and only downs in the first half 20 carries and five targets are in jones, which is pretty good He now has set a season high in just opportunities in two straight games with 28 and 30 He also has 150 or more yards uh from scrimmage twice this year, which is a good number So does this potentially new approach alter your view of jones? And does it make you less likely to chase a guy like romeo dobs even with watson cob and lasard all banged up so They were extra run heavy their pass rate over expectation a minus 15.4 percent on pass and run plays Uh, it was the first time they were below double digits in the negative They've had two games at a negative nine, but overall they're just below average In pass rate over expectations. So I guess the real question is do you think This was specific to the fact that they were playing the bills Or do you think that this is what they're trying to do? I think it was specific to the to the injuries that they have Because like if there's no lasard, I could see them just being more also. They were they ran the ball well So like it was working and they faced Detroit next week. So it might work again Um, the problem is that means we have to consider these jabronis. Uh, because they're facing Detroit Um, they're three and a half point favorites on the road against Detroit. Uh, what does my model say about this? It says that the Packers I can't find them on the sheet This is very useful. Very good radio. Oh, that's why it's sorted by offense. Um, it says they should be favored by 2.4 That's so disrespectful. Um But it's also true And my 2022 only model says green bay should be favored by 4.8. So Okay, whatever, um Name me a salary then for Aaron Jones 77 Is that too high? That might be too high. I think that's more likely to be too high than too low Aaron Jones is always my he's hard for me to pin down. I'd say 75 right below etn. Okay, and he is 78 it's not egregious For his upside. I think that that's definitely not a cash gameplay. Definitely not there But for tournaments, he has a path to 40 points and for 78 that's not bad. What about dogs? Give me a salary three um I'm annoyed like they want to bench him so badly and they can't because guys keep getting hurt Um, if lasard is back, yeah, but he had that sick touchdown. That's gotta No, you're right. You're right. You're right. You're right. Good point. Good point. Yeah, sure. Sure. Um I would say dob should be like 59 He's 61. I think that's it. I think that's fair was already case he plays at 65. That's pretty high Big shot bob cunyan is 5000 He has no no yardage upside apparently, but I had 90 could we see I guess Big shot bob back in the menu I guess we'll find out what tight end looks like. We want to have we want to have mark angers or kelsey Thank goodness. I love those slates. Those are always much fun. Yeah If I can justify dumpster diving, I want to do it. Let me live in the gutter Let me embrace my environment. Let me get what the 6.1 points from foster moro or whatever. Yeah Yeah That hurt I was born in that. I was born in that. I was born in the foster moro. Okay Moro, sorry. Okay. Uh, you had to do it on denver. What'd you see with them? uh, yeah, just They're picking up the pace at least um the past two games adjusted pace through week six was Ranked them 26. They're up to fifth over the past two weeks The pass rate over expectations about average If if there's any reason to believe in like a team to be a little bit more fun A team like denver I could still Talk myself into if they're ever I feel like they haven't been on the main slate in like 10 years, but yeah, which is probably a good thing but I also do think it was like nice that Ross kind of embraced the de-gap and was just like chucking nukes and seeing what happened Like I think like diplomacy of that doing that in London like just dropping bombs might not be the best but like 10.4 yard a dot If they'll be a little bit faster They still have like six delay of game penalties because they're the absolute worst But like that's a little bit better and that can that can warm you up to dulcich can warm me up to Judy or Sutton, I guess so yeah, you know, I think we'll have to consider them It's just mostly good dulcich. I'm waiting. I feel better about it if they're going to chuck it deep and be less slow I'm waiting for Sutton to be like 66 on their return to the main slate and and just be like Here we go again. There we go Just use dulcich. I think that's the easy solution there. Okay Let's do our salary scroll. We pull up the week nine and main slate over on fan dual Go position by position and shout out salaries as they appear to us I will also know just before this that they're only two afternoon games next week. That's a bit. Oh, that's rude Um, it's Seattle, Arizona and the rams against the bucks. They wanted I They called an iso for rams bucks This is what happens Wolf. Yeah Okay, let's go to quarterback. What do you see there? So again, it's a 10 game main slate a whole lot of big names like my home's lamar Not on the main slate so Josh Allen against the Jets 93 I think is It's similar like the Jalen Hertz this week where he was 92 and Except me of his own I think the bills are more aggressive when they're playing from ahead So I feel like I'd feel better about Allen than I did about Hertz I used Hertz still this week, but like I'd feel better about Allen I would too. Um Also, I don't think they like the Jets very much teams like to bully the Jets in their head, which is fine I'm pro-bullying for the record, but I think that helps too I also realized I just came out as pro-bullying. So let's walk that back Once you're 21 or older, you're allowed to be bullied. I don't know. We'll figure this out I'm gonna workshop this. No, the lean's always bad unless you're an NFL team But I backpedal on that enough Yeah, um, oh boy. I just saw I just saw my next mistake Oh I was thinking Herbert at 78 against that Atlanta defense no Mike Williams next week But like I could still talk myself into that also Gino 75 facing the Cardinals the second time in like six weeks, but yeah Go ahead with your thing because it's it's weird Well, it basically like I guess it's not just fun if we're literally laughing and not saying what we're seeing um But it makes sense at the top. We have Josh Allen. We have Joe Burrow at 85 We have Kyler Murray 82 who's he's gonna be at 82 for the rest of his life Two is 8,000. I get it cousins 79. I get it Herbert 78. I get it and then it's like Nothing really jumped out there. Yeah, the first thing that truly jumped off the page was Tom Brady below 7,000 And Aaron Rodgers at 7,000. Yeah Derek Carr 68 so like all pocket passers very hard to find upside but Tom Brady at times this year has still been 8,000 or more um like 78 or higher Tom Brady at 69 can Hit 3x value. I don't know if he can still drop 40 I don't but I'm not using him in lineups where We're not using Allen I think that you we could nitpick burrow with no chase Herbert with no Mike Williams Kyler for being Kyler I can't you know how insufferable I I'm always insufferable Do you know how insufferable I would have been if you would show me these salaries of not the salaries But show me Jared golf and Marcus mariota with higher salaries and Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady I'm already the worst. I'd have been much worse if I'd yeah, you would just become unsufferable as a result Become yes uh, I mean Again, we're probably not I think I'd rather use touchdown Trevor Lawrence and Tom Brady and Trevor Lawrence is 68 Tom Brady 69 I'd rather use Trevor Lawrence against the Raiders than Brady against the Rams Do you want to do a bet no Why because it's not like I'm saying I'm gonna play Tom Brady like I think this is egregious I'm just saying like it's appealing because you think he's better than Lawrence I Think that's probably close when you compare the game environment fair enough But Brady Godwin stacks are going to be free. I don't care. I'll take the Godwin part. You can leave you can have the quarterback um, no No, like minimum salary quarterbacks jumping out. Yeah, or like I mean see I'm Alan Gerr, but I don't It's gonna be a tough week at quarterback I think it might be just to get to Alan kind of week find a way to get to Josh Allen Yep, let's go to running back We talked about Austin Eckler before they're by about how like his role is getting better. He's 94 It's the Falcons He's gonna score three times again. Yeah, I mean like It's fair that he's there. Do I want to pay for it? No, but like I understand why he's there. That's the way I phrase it Only six running backs at eight thousand or higher For next week Eckler, uh 94 Jacobs 88 Dalvin 85 Kenneth Walker 83 Joe mixon 81 and remandry 8000 I don't have a whole lot of fear in not playing those guys. I agree So we have etn at 76 is being the primary right down at running back so far erin jones 78 is like fine Like do you feel better about jones against Detroit or sievens and against indy? Oh jones against Detroit. I do too okay, um Scrolling down further. We know deonti forman 73 He's probably gonna be in the consideration said if we're not if we need to get to allen and we don't love the superstar running backs Relative to this slate. Yeah, I think that's fair as well jt at 68 becomes more attractive given the lack of like high-end dudes who can like Make a shake in our boots a bit. It might be like a three-way coin flip between like forman fornette and taylor is like, uh The secondary option Yeah, sort of go to at this point where he most of salary went down to 65 He had oh for he'm black sure as they popped up because I didn't do most of 64 snap rate for most of that's actually in line with where he was Before like it's not a huge deviation. I don't think he had a role reduction. He just didn't like Get as much passing game work, but like we've seen him do it So I think that most of it 65 is probably in name. I'll be looking at again this week Yeah, still 50 percent of the routes and they just kind of were able to throw it Yeah, and do whatever they wanted. So yeah, I think I think part of it was like stylistically like Detroit allows more targets like outside receivers because of the style of defense they play not every team does that though So I could see it reverting a little bit back that way Um this week. So I think that most streets on the table at 65 I'm assuming eventually james connor's back, but you know, benjamin's still a 71 snap rate two-thirds of the routes Seven targets He did he did fend off daryl williams this week too I thought that he might see a bit less work with williams back when he didn't it was the same role He just squeezed out kiante ingram just one for one replacement This is going to be one where jim yells at me. Oh wait, wait. Can I guess sure? Oh tyler algear? Yeah, no Playing against I might be able to get 30 yards in the chargers. I don't care He did have three targets this week, which is more than he had the entire season entering so I guess there's that I mean, he's going to get his 15 to 18 carries and in the best matchup possible on the ground Um, I'm telling you now no To a guy at 6,000 Absolutely not michael carter. No or devin simulatory. Yes to him No to michael carter as well, but it's devin simulatory. Oh, yeah, I'm not there. Okay In a non-neutral script. I'm not going to do it Okay, I don't see anything else super enticing down below 6,000 to you ronnie rivers Nope Although kairan williams is back this week most likely kairan williams is minimum salary seems like they like him a lot. Um I want to hear what they say about kairan williams, but I just want to flag that he's minimum salary and there's a chance that that could be viable potentially There is no reason to believe that jonathan together won't play but uh deon jackson is 5 000 Oh, cool. Just uh preemptive That game that he had was with no nihime hinds, correct? Uh, did hinds play in that game? No, they were they they both were like trending to play like they both went from like they're not gonna play They're like, oh, no, they're gonna play and then it was by sunday. It was like or by saturday night I think it was like neither of them were playing the hinds thing is at least a little bit concerning But for minimum salary or five thousand dollars hinds 59 again, there's no reason to think that Taylor won't play. Yeah. Yeah, exactly Okay, wide receiver. Cooper cup is down 9 000. That's They're listening to us at least. Um, hopefully he plays but like, you know, better better than it was There are a lot of So this is uh, if we're gonna be open to and there's not gonna be any high salary tight ends that I can think of Like based on yeah, yeah, not really looking at the I take some hills not in this late. Yeah So it might be a like etn And Tavor Foreman kind of starts so that you play one or two of these guys most dirt most dirt. Yeah. Yeah Um, divante 81 seems a little bit low just because he does have a path to a ceiling it, you know, uh, also t. Higgins I would say darn He's up to 8 000 Still fine. I think We'll learn a lot tonight Monday night I've used Amon Ross St. Brownie to the past two weeks. It has not worked out, but he did have 10 targets He's 7100 dollars against the Packers could be like an Aaron Jones mini stack situation So if we if we flagged these two salaries, um Back in early september like dgm or allen robbins and 7 000. Okay, cool. Like they're doing like You know, they weren't like first round picks. They weren't like Guys that we expected the world meeting expectations. Like they're yeah, they're like, you know, they're Resurging from where they had been but I don't know if it's quite that yeah Uh, Chris Godwin is 67 and Gabe Davis is 66 both those guys Are viable for very different reasons very different paths to viability, but I think they're both very much in play Yeah, Godwin is going to be in my head to have mine up against you I don't really think there's any way around around that I will again mention christian kirk at 6300 dollars. Um, I think that game is going to be fun I should probably take the total in that it's 46 and a half it's a weird um I think that christian kirk at 63 will be intriguing personally feeling 62 I prefer kirk over thulin, but I think thulin is in play dob 61 against The lions Yeah rondales up to 59 I think that's a bit of a trap Yeah, I agree. I think that if you were to if everyone is skeptical of him and he doesn't Wind up being popular then it's like, okay You know, he's has like a path because he's getting enough volume And he's curtis annual and curtis annual gets the ox 59. I don't at least consider that um, but Yeah Gary wilson 58 is not bad as a bringback option for josh allen lineups 115 yards this week Um, they did throw a bit more with no bruise hall. So that's encouraging Yeah Josh Reynolds back down to 57 You trying to think we didn't notice of course we noticed you can't cover up your sins like this I Regrettably think drake london is somewhat viable at 56. I think someone viable is an awakened phrasing. I cannot go beyond that I pierce. Oh, I pierce her pitman Say jones is 55 I didn't think I might be the only person who cares about that but yeah Oh, it's a jones revenge game. Oh, yeah Oh, yeah Say jones hundred percent my guy khalif ramon 75 or more yards and too straight The second he caught like he had a downhill pass. What did he finish with? 76 yards. I think he had that on like the first quarter I think he had 71 yards like right away. Yeah There are so many dusty dudes in the low 5000 range Denzel memes is back 52. I'm not I'm not serious about that but can you be back if you were never there? Denzel kill harry also back, but never was that he had a touchdown I know I'm saying he's back, but never actually was there never went nowhere because see there was nowhere to go Okay, figure that out. Whoa. I went to tight end Zach hurts is $6,600. Why is that who is using Zach hurts in week nine? That's like the uh Like the the Bermuda butterfield field where like someone's got to be 12,000. So it's no they don't No, they don't He's not Zach hurts eesh um Yeah, I'm probably not punting at tight end, but One thing I'll say is that Devondre Campbell got banged up for the Packers and so he had a knee injury and then um Something else happened. I can't remember what happened. Oh, they had a guy ejected. Um TJ Hawkinson is 62 He has yarded upside. Um, that's not an awful salary for him. No Gerald Everett's 58. I hate Gerald Everett What's Keenan salary? It's Keenan. That's late 25, okay Gerald Everett's 58 I Hate using Gerald Everett. He's abysmal to watch rooting for him is my nightmare, but he's 58. No, Mike Williams. I Will probably have to use him Um, I mean we should get Darren Waller back. I don't know how much that matters but How much is he he's 6,000. Okay. I mean I'll be stacking the lights out of that game because I'm a moron Evan Ingram 52 Yeah Unfortunately, again like Tyler's Conklin. I don't really People like him a lot more than I do coming off a two touchdown game, but six and like Tyler Conklin I feel like I see his name like as a fun streaming. It's a season long thing. Yeah We don't talk about those. I think it's also like value DFS stuff. Um, I would also flag that might get sticky. Um His route right or his snap rate went back down this week Durham smith played in week seven But it seems like he was more healthy this week despite not practicing a whole lot. So gisicky. I guess he'd run 23 routes on 38 drop backs. That's not the worst but the snap rate went back down. So I'm not really itchy to chase his his couple of touchdowns that he's had recently at $5,500 Has any like maxed out at 65 yards or something Probably 69 yards nice Probably around there. He's got he's got one One game above 41 yards since he got 69 and two touchdowns against the Vikings. Yeah, he's also had a lot of good matchups recently Uh I will give you credit no a fan did outscore will disley this week I said no a fan if there's no dk Oh, yeah, yeah, that's fair. Uh, but colby parkinson won cash for five yards nailed that one Yeah, I think for me at tight end the primary thing that like entices me Would be hawkinson at 62 or ever to 58 I think that's probably where i'm looking primarily Yeah, as much as I would like I can make a case for eban ingram It's a bet against any sort of upside from any other tight ends because he doesn't really have Substantial his upside is better than I gave him credit for but it's not like realistic 20 points or anything. Yeah Probably hawkinson afrit I think they're the primary too. Yeah Okay, a note to future me after breaking down week eight and taking a brief look ahead to week nine What are you reminding yourself as we get set for this next week? That josh allen has a huge ceiling Yes, and I think that could be your only note honestly I I don't want to forget that and yeah even even when they're big favorites I think it's especially important to note that given that like I want to dig into the higher salary backs to make sure I'm not overlooking something we're like Like right now I feel like okay I can afford to spend the mid-range and not really get super high in the high salary guys I want to dig in to make sure that's the case. I think that'll wind up being the case after investigation but my note to future me is Dig into the high salary backs and make sure I am okay to spend up a quarterback with josh allen and pepper the mid-range again at running back Love it Okay, that is all that we have here for this week eight recap podcast again Though a lot of other good stuff on the number flyer daily fantasy podcast feed our week nine preview coming up on thursday That'll also be live on the fandal youtube page 10 a.m. Eastern as is this podcast 10 a.m. Eastern every monday And thursday on the fandal youtube page go subscribe there hit the like button If you are are watching and also subscribe on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcasts are you signaling 10? Yeah It's not I did it wrong first It's week nine 10 a.m Oh It's like don't skip weeks on me. I can't do that just yet. We're not there yet um Yeah, subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed with pga coming up tomorrow for some tournament I have not researched yet Yorakoba, uh brandon people have questions for you on twitter. Where can they find you there? I'm on twitter sometimes rarely at goodwill 13 gd. ULA 13 and I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n And es you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to everyone for tuning in and good luck to you with your nfl Dfs lannes for monday night between the bangles and the browns We'll talk to you once again thursday to get you set for week number nine. This has been the heat shack fantasy podcast powered by number fire