 So the breakfast and plus CV Africa and we're looking at a second conversation. We'll have a live guest Well, let's just go through the background of the conversation The Nigerian economy recorded a seven consecutive quarterly growth in the second quarter of 2022 as real GDP That's gross domestic product Expanded by 3.54% year on year on an improvement compared to 3.11% growth recorded in the previous quarter although lower than the 5.01% growth printed in the corresponding period of 2021 in terms of aggregate real GDP a student 17.29 or 2.9 trillionaire Representing a quarter on quarter on decline when compared to 17.35 trillion recorded in the first of 2022 interesting to note that road transport coal mining and Niger's fast growing sector in the second quarter of 2022 we do have a guest joining the conversation will not all lose today his executive director DMA advisory and management services limited Lugidae is good to have you join us this morning Let's share your thoughts on this development apparently 28 sectors of the country struggling and we have actually lost a lot What are your thoughts? What do you make of this development? There are two key two major scenarios we can look at There is a global part to the problem We are seeing and there is a domestic part the global part has to do with the fact that Whether it is America where there is 40 year all-time Inflation or Germany where there is a 30 year all-time inflation across the world. There are economic problems The other part is the fact that as there is inflationary pressures across the world you have Defeats raising rates when they raise their rates it constrains the amount of Investment that can come into a margin market like ours Then you have the energy crisis, which is also global so there is the the fact that we've seen the prices of Crude on the international market go up dramatically and by so doing you have the effect on things like diesel Aviation fuel and everything along that chain the prices have gone up. So that's that's another part the other part from the global side is also the agric sector so in the agric sector you have a A Country like Russia is a major fertilizer exporter in the world as when involved in a war and There are impact there are impact our long order line across Europe generally Belgium now is shutting down certain manufacturing concerns Because of gas problem. Germany is rationing power. So all the things are there at the global scale then on the domestic Domestic scale we have our own internal problems So for a country that is dependent on importation We have gone ahead to import some of the crisis from all those countries. We're speaking about So you are importing food from a country where inflation is at a 40-year high. You're also importing part of that inflation so We have that problem. We also have an issue without internal Insecurity issues which is affecting food when you look at the bucket of Inflation the inflation figures that we have and you see the chunk that is contributed by food You begin to understand how all of these things are interwoven and is creating pressure on us our foreign net change Regime is not helping matters Recently it was the aviation people that were you know, and we had to release money for that once aviation start getting affected He impacts your economy We saw it's the only one domestic airlines started to reduce the number of flights because of aviation for While you see transportation, you know grew in that report that you just right now It did not grow on the side of the consumers. We grew on the side of the people who have Transferred entirely their increased cost onto the consumers. So moving goods from say Kevin to Lagos that used to be 200,000 It's now 500,000 era and the guy that is going to sell it at the other end Just take the entire increase in cost profile and float this onto the consumer the consumer because his own Income has not grown Commerciably he's unable to purchase as is he used to purchase so all these things are Containing and constraining the economy of Nigeria. That is why you have quarter-on-quarter Being bad Whereas if you take Year on year, it's not bad because 21 we're just recovering from Kobe to Allah So we are what you look at the base comparison. Yeah, it is the low. Yeah, we're just coming out of a problem You've taken the words out of a mouth Was one to ask you about this year-on-year issue You know so so so so you say that the quarter on quarter GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics are what we should look at Quarter-on-quarter not year-on-year because I was about to say are we not them being alarmist and overreacting Want of a better word? We should look at both What what the year-on-year is telling us is that the level of activities relative to 2021 has increased in 2021 We were just coming out of COVID things. We're just teaming up in 2022 things activities have continued to increase That is a message there and that is why the GDP numbers we see Are better than last year? But if you want to see our progression you come to the quarter-on-quarter And then you begin to see how we have not done as well as we did in quarter one What we did in quarter two was poorer than quarter one and the it's easy to see as all those crises have continued to constrain our capacity To expand or to perform All right, but let's also look at this now the economy recorded a seventh consecutive quarterly growth in the second quarter That's over, you know 2022 as the real GDP expanded by 3.54 percent on a year-on-year basis According to you know the report is that it's an improvement to the 3.11 percent growth recorded in the previous quarter, but I like to ask you what does this translate to you? What does this mean for us as an economy? Well for us when you take a look at the year-on-year issues, of course You mentioned seven consecutive quarters, right? That is taking it all the way from 2020 in 2020. That was a slum So anything you're doing post 2020 will record an improvement And that is what we have seen that is why we have all those Several consecutive quarters of growth, but when you want to begin to look at a shorter period That's when the problem starts to sink in So you look at a quarter on quarter you compare quarter two 2022 with quarter one 2022 and you begin to see all those impact of Energy crisis food crisis they begin to railing By next Quarter report for example, there is likely that there will still be a growth when you look at it year-on-year But he's the quarter on quarter That will likely see the problem much as the most situation of them you you sort of go so low like that The only way to go is to go up. That was That's that's all the year-on-year is telling you all right. So so and let's look at the individual sectors now Um according to the data from from the nbs the agricultural sector because talking about 28 sectors And but apart from that the other sectors that they didn't do badly. So we look at all of them the cultural sector witness mixed positives Um, you have two sub sectors under the agric sector and the nbs has done a good work of highlighting these um, you have crop production Growing livestock declined forestry grew while fishing declined And so it's a mixed bag for the agric sector, correct What do you think is responsible for this that um crop production is able to grow in a time of um Boko haram, you know in the surgency in time of banditry In a time when you're having what do you call it them a lot of these farmers leaving their homes, you know to go As refugees and then they're running away So what do you think we will be responsible because it seems like it's something strange happening when we end The farmers are running from their farms. They can't go up north in the middle belt. So while we're having crop production growing And foresty growing and then of course fishing which is in the southern part of the country declining and we have um livestock also as well declining. Okay, um crop production will naturally grow Because of the seasonality In the quarter one which is January to March there is even no rain Going on. So what you have in fact when you take a product like maize The peak price of maize is as as as you start to go into the year the price start to increase February is higher march is higher than February But then by the time the rain start to come in which is the second quarter We begin to plan in fact by the end of that second quarter maize is already involved By middle of of that second quarter maize is already out You know, so in terms of production We are likely to uh To get the kind of response we got by virtue of this seasonality of of what we're looking at So that is what is likely driving the crop production growth that you look at Well for the want of time quickly let's share the thoughts of uh, you know, the chief executive officer center for promotion and Private enterprise dr. Muta Yusef. He said that uh, productivity and competitiveness Issues had continued to negatively impact and performance across the sector of the economy. Correct. And he cited an example that, you know You know, the general operating environment of the nation was very challenging for most investors I like that you, you know, expand shade on that. Do you agree with him? That's number And then secondly right on that what are really these issues that are impacting, you know on investors, especially small-skill business Enterprise both both small medium-sized medium-sized and even the big ones are being impacted for the big ones You just take when you take the a vision example. It explains what the problem is. Someone has brought this money He has earned money in your economy. He needs to take money back. He cannot take the money back So what's my encouragement? Why should I want to continue to operate in that kind of an environment? Where when I bring my money, I cannot take my money back Though thank god CBN has intervened in that particular issue by providing dollars But those are the kind of problems that we're talking about When you go to the manufacturer, it becomes a major problem. People want to import raw materials And the process the the the getting for an action to do this thing is a torture People open houses and they can't even get dollars to pay the supplier You'll be getting bits and pieces of dollars over extended period of time Very quickly, please. The manufacturing sector according to the MBS we usually see They come up with 13 sub sectors on the manufacturing now They're seeing out of the 13 sub sectors 10 experience a decline where only three, you know group, you know So what do you what do you think it's been going on with the manufacturing sector seeing a massive decline Part of it is what I've just mentioned The fact that people cannot Get access to dollars You do a NLC today when it comes to time for you to pay down on that lc and you go to bid You have decided to put in for a million dollars and then they give you 100,000 And then you continue to go 50,000 100,000 for the next one year for you to be able to pay down on a one million dollar How do you how do you expand it at the inflationary pressures we have in like I mean ordinary agencies that also something that could affect the manufacturing sector Because at the end of the day they produce and they they are capacity to buy the consumer must have enough Dispossibling come to consume if it doesn't it limits what it can buy and then you have Inventory start to pile up Invariably affects them very quickly before before we go solutions now because of time. Yeah, okay mercy Yeah, not just quickly because we're out of time With the solutions. I'm sure that's What do we need to do to fix it for for most of the global problems? We have no major control over them But there are some that are within our domestic environment Insecurity for example, we need to do more on the side of insecurity that more farmers go to the farms And they can produce food for us. We need to do more around our foreign exchange policies So that people can have access to dollars and be able to import what they need to import of course that has Various time horizons You can have the short term the medium and the long term things we need to do To to make that happen. But our focus should be on things within our control not Russia, Ukraine. Well, all right We need to go. Thank you so much Well, I'll lose today The pleasure is mine Well, I'll lose today is the executive director of DMA advisory and management services The meeting we appreciate your time with us. Thank you so much for Spending time and sharing though I wish we had more time because I mean we have several questions to ask But that's it on the breakfast. If you missed that on any part of it It will be all right to follow us on facebook twitter and instagram do subscribe to a youtube channel Word plus tv africa and plus tv africa lifestyle. I am messy boku And i'm kofi Bartels return tomorrow with more on the breakfast. Good morning