 Hi there. I'm Anthony Chung and I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Every weekday morning I'll deliver a fundamental rundown ahead of the European Open. But if you subscribe to the channel, you'll also get content from the rest of the team. So, let's begin. All right. Very good morning. Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. It's Monday, the 16th of November. Just going to have a look around the markets, not only just a review of what's happened over the weekend and used to be aware of, but also an outlook for the week ahead from a fundamental point of view. So, I'm not going to spend too much time looking at the charts directly. I'll save that for the guys on the live stream on Amplify Live. But just to give you a general overview of sentiment at the European market open and equity index futures up quite sharply again in the overnight session, a combination really underpinned by a few different things. Obviously, a lot of people still looking out for further vaccine updates, which we're going to talk about in a moment. We've also had Joe Biden's team talking about the fact that they want to avert any type of national US wide shutdown. And there's been some news overnight out of Asia about the largest regional free trade agreement that we've pretty much ever seen. So, equity index futures higher Asia indices following suit. So, just having a look around the markets I just wanted to start with the Nasdaq first of all actually, because just looking on a technical perspective, not only have we broken out of what was kind of the top end of a range of which we're trading in the futures last Thursday going into the overnight Friday session. So, a kind of gap up and break out above that in the recommencement of trade. We kind of stuck around that point during the Asia Pacific session and drifted perhaps just slightly lower down to the bottom end of that band of price activity as UK and Europe have come back in. But interestingly, I've just got a fib retracement on from the initial spike high that we had on the Pfizer. This was following on from around the timings of when the market was just before the Pfizer news was breaking, which was this volatility here. So, just prior to that the start really this time last week from down to the low that we hit the day after the Pfizer news on that kind of very short-term rotational play that was touted for hurting the tech stocks at the time, although a lot of that's been kind of taken back. That's given us a framework then for up and around the 618 on the retracement, which is pretty much to the tick of what's just restricted some of this price activity on this recovery here. You can see on three occasions and so that's the NASDAQ 100. Just going to have a look at the S&P as well, if I just move this back in. So, the S&P got to put it on the daily really to look in context. There's the big Pfizer jump you can see just here on the left hand side, but on the daily that was that huge extension on that wick when that vaccine news came out last week and here we are again now managing to open up. On the daily chart quite a significant technical level we found some resistance back at the end of last week on Friday at the previous all-time high which was seen at around the 35, 86, 87 type area. We opened above that and we've just pushed on and so that initial Pfizer blip high was seen at 36, 68. We're currently trading up around 29, 28 points at the moment at 36, 10. So, firmly through 36, 100 once again for the spools. Quite a look in the other asset classes then. T-notes are pretty flat overall. Oil just been grinding up to the top end of what was a bit of a range of restrictive price action that we saw towards the back end of last week around 40, 80 but has moved high in the overnight Asia-Pacific session just with some of the stuff I've just been talking about from a fundamental perspective in play. The currency markets then in step the dollar weakening overnight. We were down about two tenths of 1% in the dollar index. So, most major pairs are elevated in euro dollar 16 and cable 30 pips. Cable is seeing a bit of a rejection from technically an area of resistance that we saw. This would have been Wednesday going into Thursday overnight session. You've also got overlaying that the R1 on the daily pivot levels in the futures and the market just rejected and they're up and around those highs and drifting back down now as European players come back into the market. We'll talk about a few things on Brexit. Boris Johnson also self isolating after being exposed according to the track and trace system to someone with COVID-19. Perhaps a bit of a hindrance to what otherwise has been quite a shake up in government with coming this obviously being asked to leave rather than see through his kind of term through to the end of the year was what was originally planned. Elsewhere Gold just giving up some of the overnight gains here more recently just as the dollar has come off its lowest level but relatively just looking at it at the moment going to look for an area of kind of a support zone really at around 82 to 85. This was the previous kind of areas we were looking at the end of last week. We've obviously broken above there on Friday now that might provide a bit of a platform to help support the price if we continue to pull back but we're back to flat in Gold futures essentially now just coming up to 7am here in London. All right let's get stuck into the news then. I really want to give you guys a kind of an update what's going on and one of the main things to look out for this week and this was one of the first things was why is the market up this morning. Now one of the things I was looking at at the weekend was a lot of people anticipating what approach is Joe Biden and his administration when they come in going to take particularly on the issue of COVID-19 and subsequently the impact that that could have on the economy and what this article was basically suggesting is that two of the president-elect Joe Biden's coronavirus advisors said that they were in favor of targeted local measures to stem the pandemic as opposed to a nationwide US lockdown which they saw as too blunt an approach. So remember a lot of people were a bit apprehensive about Biden. He had said before and remember when a lot of those televised debates were happening about the fact that he would just lock down the entire country. As I said at the time I always thought that that was very much a political statement something which he wouldn't follow through with given the impact that that would have on the economy and this is kind of what these press reports this morning are suggesting but the market taking for sure probably a degree of relief on the back of that because as we know any type of national wide lockdown would have severe repercussions in terms of the economic recovery and would enhance that prospect of a double dip kind of recession idea. So that's definitely one thing. The other side of things has been this coming out of Asia so Asia Pacific nation is including China, Japan, South Korea overnight basically have signed the world's largest regional free trade agreement encompassing nearly a third of the world's population and GDP. So a bit further context then supporters of the trade pact it covers around 2.2 billion people with a combined GDP of over 26 trillion US dollars so that it would bolster pandemic weakened economies by reducing tariffs and strengthening supply chains with common rules of origin and codifying new e-commerce rules. So yeah quite substantial news there coming out of Asia and as mentioned and that's another reason for why we've had quite a positive movement in markets across asset in the overnight session. Separately overnight and was well over the weekend in China some economic data industrial production came out year on year 6.9 percent expectations were for 6.5 percent their retail sales number a touch soft but overall still fairly consistent in that respect and picking up on prior readings. We talk quite positive though there certainly is something which is a more negative that needs to be monitored at this point and it's something we talked about a lot last week and that is the developing situation of COVID in America so at the moment the market is kind of in this short-term state of positivity on the things I mentioned but still the biggest risk to this on a sentiment basis and therefore price is going to be the kind of rate of which then death counts start to rise in America as a byproduct of the increased matter cases that we've seen and then ultimately what type of measures do get adopted by the US. So over the past week in the US there've been an average of 145,712 cases per day that's an increase of 80% from the average just two weeks ago case numbers a case numbers up 80% comparative to two weeks ago there's been more than 1200 deaths reported as of Saturday at the weekend pushing the seven-day average to more than 1120 a day that's a 38% increase from two weeks ago but remember that as we were talking about some of the science and mathematics being run last week there's approximate three-week lag between deaths then behind that of the case count if the case count is still accelerating as it has been well then we can anticipate and then this death rate is likely and this bottom chart here not only going to supersede where we were during the Sun Belt breakout in the summer but it's going to get back up towards this initial first wave peak which was in excess of 2000 at the time. Other things then to be aware of on the the Covid side globally in terms of on the East Coast New York City schools will remain open on Monday remember that was a bit of a talking point at the end of last week about if it got to a certain level that closed down but it hasn't quite got there yet and that's so positive tests of Covid-19 haven't risen above that threshold for closing down. New Jersey reported a record number of infections for a second straight day at the weekend just over four and a half thousand meanwhile stepping across the pond and over into mainland Europe Germany have said they must live with considerable restrictions against the spread of Covid-19 for at least four to six months according to the Economy Minister and Austria's government has ordered one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe and around the clock curfew will apply from Tuesday with people only allowed to leave their homes to buy groceries travel to essential work or provide urgent care so the most strict that we've seen basically adopted then since the initial outbreak that we had back in back in March as far as the UK is concerned the case numbers on Sunday around 25 000 relatively in line with the seven-day kind of average however they do tend to be undercounted at the weekend so numbers still fairly high in the case of the UK. That being said as I mentioned Bojo somewhat ironic he's now self-isolating once again remember he already had contracted Covid-19 what would have been a few months ago now but given his exposure to someone he's now having to self-isolate which comes at quite a pressing time for him politically of course quite significant restructuring in terms of some of his key strategic advisors given Cummings exit that we saw at the end of last week so it'd be interesting to see how that plays out as the week continues. Talking of then the virus we've got to talk about the vaccine and there's a couple of things I'm looking out for this week that I think could be important and first off is going to be Moderna they're likely to release their first interim results on their late stage trials of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate experts have said Moderna's candidate which uses a similar type of technology to Pfizer will also likely to be or prove to be highly effective the one thing I would say though is just given how markets have been moving of late and also it coming second to the initial surprise announcement press statement coming out of Pfizer I'd say that the Moderna update probably has largely been priced in at this point some other things to be aware of though Johnson & Johnson they're launching a UK trial of its experimental Covid-19 vaccine it's the third experimental vaccine to enter late stage trials in the UK following the ones that have been done by US company Novavax and the joint one between University of Oxford and AstraZeneca on Sunday as well the French pharmaceutical Sinovya Ventus their French chief came out and said that coronavirus vaccine developed by the company will not need to be super called and a normal refrigerator would suffice according to AFP news obviously that's quite an important point being explicitly made there by the Sinovya chief given that's one of the biggest issues perhaps then to the logistics of the Pfizer shop giving it has to be stored in ultra cold temperatures moving on then to other order of play so we're going to talk about Brexit we've obviously moved through what was supposed to have been a deadline self-imposed somewhat yesterday there's obviously no dealers yet so people looking further forward now as talks resume in Brussels today ministers UK has hinted that Brexit talks could stretch out beyond this week citing the environmental secretary so they've already said going into a fresh new week actually nothing might happen this week and it comes after David Frost the UK Brexit negotiator has basically said that he was heading back to Brussels and UK would not be changing its position in the coming talks and obviously state aid and fisheries still the main stumbling box at the moment I still stand by my view I don't think they're going to get anything done this week I don't in fact think they're going to get anything done for a number of weeks not until we get down to around mid-December to late December when there is some of the final parliamentary EU gatherings happening there was even an EU Parliament official over the weekend talking about doesn't really see a deal happening until around that time mid-December so it's almost like the fact that they're saying that if I was a part of the UK team I'd be like right well if they're willing to do that let's take it all the way up to the end I mean this is just the general nature of negotiation so the exiting of Cummings I think does help certainly if I was thinking about the UK kind of strategy I certainly would use that as a bit of leverage in these talks saying that you know Dominic is gone now so therefore look we can let's start to move this forward a little bit good faith kind of talks on the back of getting rid of what is the chief architect of the overall idea of Brexit in the first place I think that could be done as quite positive I still think a deal will inevitably get done it's just the fact that we need some kind of more definitive legal end date like the end of transition to really I think get this over the line so I think you'll probably get some more updates as we go through the week but again I start this week as we started last week with pretty low expectations about the real outcome of how far these talks will progress as soon as by Friday. Other thing I noticed in the weekend news probably worth mentioning is about OPEC ministers to focus on a postponement of three to six months according to delegates familiar with the talks who are asked not to be identified and that's in regards to eyeing and delaying a delayment in the supply boost which we remember was supposed to come in in a staggered fashion but with things like Covid 19 kind of picking up pretty much globally and then that going to result in various different lockdowns and restrictions the demand still looking pretty scant at the moment means that then this supply deal is probably just going to stay as it is for the time being with a further extension the reason why this is important why I'm pointing it out is the OPEC plus they'll be having an interim meeting on Tuesday to review the market a final decision there on whether they're going to go for three to six months it's not going to happen for a further two weeks then they meet right at the end of the month essentially going to the first of December looking at the calendar then for this week what have we got and just going to give you a very broad summary so as far as today is concerned it's pretty quiet in terms of major economic data you've got the US empire manufacturing number at 130 the one thing I would like to draw your attention to right from the beginning though the central bank speakers you've got Christine Lagarde speaking today at 1 p.m. London time you've got Lagarde speaks on Tuesday she has a rest on Wednesday she then speaks in European Parliament on Thursday and then comes back at the European Banking Congress on Friday so Christine Lagarde is speaking from the ECB president pretty much every day this week barring Wednesday the Bank of England speakers really start to ramp up as well so today you can see you've got Haskell I've got a list here so Haskell's on Monday the governor Bailey and Ramston are speaking on Tuesday and Chief Economist Andy Houda speaking on Wednesday and then you've got some Fed speakers as well listed in amongst them but no Jerome Powell at least at this point so quite a few central bank speakers to account for I think with these speeches at this present point in time no one's expecting anything kind of groundbreaking to come out here the stall is already kind of set for perhaps the ECB then to commit to a fairly sizeable 500 billion increase to their their PEP program coming in December the Bank of England meetings and the Fed meetings were all so recent that there's no real reason for them to move the needle a great deal but obviously these are the main people in markets who can really influence price so it's definitely worth bearing in mind when you're going through and you're taking on any position just the timings of these particular speeches so Monday's pretty quiet overall we're then going to Tuesday we get US retail sales figures they are expected to show that month-on-month growth slowed in October the headlines expected a plus 0.5 percent the prior reading was 1.9 percent and this comes ahead of the key holiday shopping season as the effects of fiscal stimulus fade in coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen at this point in time it will include amazon prime day numbers so it'd be quite interesting to see how the overall number performs if you were to X that figure out because obviously that is a particular popular day for online retailing but overall I'm not sure how important really US retail sales are because quite frankly this is October numbers and going forward now people are inherently forward-looking things will deteriorate probably going into November December particularly given the COVID situation as I said and the lack of further fiscal stimulus as we've seen in the US moving on then going through the rest of the week you start to then see some UK data coming in you've got UK CPI on Wednesday you've also got UK retail sales and it's coming out on Friday again that retail sales figure in the UK is for October I think that is pretty much redundant at this point because if you remember the UK since has now gone into the latest state of nationwide restrictions due to COVID-19 so regardless of what this figure comes out with it's going to get worse probably most likely at this point in time given that fact so in terms of inflation pretty similar I don't really see that as a market moving event otherwise what what classically would be a tier one piece of information going through then to Thursday as I said you've got Lagarde speaking again even twice in one day at the beginning and afternoon you've got some other things your weekly jobless claims fully fed business outlook existing home sales coming out of the States and then on Friday as I said you get UK retail sales number public finance data as well so and that's it so overall data-wise I'd say fairly quiet but mainly because anything that is big like retail sales in UK and US a lot of that I think is it is quite backward looking by nature giving it's hard data and the market a little bit more sensitive about trying to manage the ongoing kind of perception of the near-term outlook with that being said then any of these virus updates are going to be quite quite key of course the market is back up around these quite elevated levels Joe Biden is I believe due to give a speech later on today with Camilla Harris I think it's happening I've seen conflicting reports some saying 4 45 p.m. London time some saying 6 45 p.m. London time I did think when I initially heard that that perhaps that could be quite an interesting speech given how is he going to he plans to tackle the situation with COVID-19 because that's going to have implications of course for the economic outlook but seemingly that's already come out in regards to these two COVID advisors that he has who have said they want to go for localized approach which obviously has net is a benefit in terms of how markets tend to react so that company with the Asian news overnight with this new free trade agreement has seen things off to a positive start but obviously some significant risks as discussed still on the table for the week ahead all right that is it going to leave it at that if anyone has any questions at all obviously if you're watching this on YouTube feel free to just leave a comment I'm absolutely happy to help but have a great week ahead thanks so much