 Good morning and welcome. I am Joseph Sunny, the head of the Africa Center here at the United States Institute of Peace, which is an institution founded by Congress in 1984. The United States of Peace Institute of Peace is a non-partisan independent public institution dedicated to prevent, resolve and mitigate conflicts abroad. It is my great pleasure to welcome you to the United States Institute of Peace for the Africa Futures Summit, co-hosted with the Institute for Security Studies and Humanities United. The goal of today's event is to examine approaches to catalyze Africa's potential to shape peace and security in the global system. Discussions will draw on the cutting edge African futures research, forecasting and policy analysis led by the Institute for Security Studies, based in South Africa. We thank Open Society Foundations for their support for that work and for the event today. Allow me to welcome and recognize Her Excellency Dr. Monique Sazan-Baganoa, Deputy Chairperson for the African Union Commission. Madam Deputy Chairperson, welcome. Thank you for joining us today. We are also delighted to host the African Union Delegation and my friend, Tarik, for bringing the delegation here. And also allow me to recognize our co-host, Dr. Fonte Akum, my dear brother from Cameroon, who is also the lead, the Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies and Srik Gopal, Managing Partner of Humanities United. Allow me finally to welcome members of the audience, both in person here at USIP and virtually through our online stream. Thank you all for joining us today. Africa is a continent in transition. By the year 2050, one in four people on the planet will be African. Just think about it. Let it sing for a while. One out of four people will be African. And many more working to realize Africa's demographic, energy, industrial, agricultural, and technological and human development potential. Many forces, many actors are working towards that realization. But that transition is not taking place in a vacuum. The world is increasingly fragmented on critical global issues, including those affecting Africa. From new wars to the unprecedented waves of coups, from the severe impact of climate shocks to the innovation in new energy and technology, a renewed, unified approach is needed. To get there, we first need to understand what is driving the most serious challenges and what is opening the most promising opportunities. Getting this diagnostics right depends on our sound analysis, database projections, and dialogue with people who can see the problems and the solution from different perspectives. This is precisely why we are here today, to examine ways to advance our shared priorities, values, and futures and true partnerships that reflect the aspiration for peace and security for our generation and future ones. Allow me now to invite Dr. Fonteakum to offer welcome remarks from the Institute for Security Studies. Thank you. Thank you very much, Joseph. Her Excellency, Dr. Monique Sazabagano. Her Excellency, Joy Basu. Dr. Joseph Sani, Mr. St. Gopin, Yaki Silie from the Institute for Security Studies, distinguished dignitaries, honorable guests, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. When we say good morning in South Africa, I want to hear it back, echoed from the audience. To know we are all here. On behalf of the Institute for Security Studies, it's an honor and a pleasure to welcome you to the Second African Futures Summit. As an applied policy research organization based in the city of Chwane in South Africa and with offices in Addis Ababa and Dakar and Nairobi, we're excited to be associated with this concept of the African Futures Summit that puts evidence-based data and analysis at the center of policymaking about transforming Africa's potential into reality. Sani spoke about the tremendous potential and the implications of the fact that by 2050, one out of every four people on earth would be African. However, African countries contend with simultaneous transitions across political, economic, tech, energy, resource and productive spheres and they remain disproportionately affected and exposed to global threats from transnational organized crime to climate risk from pandemics to conflict. So transitions are at the heart of the conversations we'll be having today. How African states and societies navigate and manage these transitions will determine the long-term peace, human security and development not just for the continent but globally as well. It's our shared responsibility. I'd like to thank, I mean, you're here today and we have an online audience as well but this convening would not have been possible without the work of specific colleagues from the U.S. Institute for Peace, Susan and team. Aya is not in the room, Bila is right back there but they have been incredible in supporting this process from Humanity United. Kehinde is not here but Maria is in the room as well and from the ISS, there's a whole delegation here but without Judy Wazels who we left back in Chuane. These individuals have been incredible in making this happen. Thank you very much for your kind attention. I look forward to a very robust conversation that focuses on how we collectively manage transitions to the benefit of not just the African continent but the world. At this point, I would like to invite my colleague, Sri Gopal, the managing partner for Humanity United as well to give his opening remarks. Thank you. Let me see if I can do one better than Fonte. Good morning. You warmed them up. At Humanity United, we believe that enduring change happens when those who are closest to the issues have the agency to act and make decisions about what impacts them. As a philanthropic organization focused on cultivating the conditions for enduring peace and freedom, we seek to promote the notion of shared humanity by elevating the voices of people with lived experience and by sharing our platforms and our access to power with change makers who are indeed closest to the issues. That is precisely why platforms like this, like the U.S. Africa Future Summit, are important. They provide opportunities to elevate African voices in influencing policy discussions and providing thought leadership. This year's theme, Africa and the future of multilateralism towards sustainable, effective, and transformative partnerships, is quite timely and contributes to advancing African agency, in particular, pan-African voices in global affairs. We also believe that a more just and equitable world can only come about when we work in partnerships, in networks, and in coalitions with each other. We acknowledge that only by finding our collective strength can we be successful in holding powerful institutions accountable and advocating for structural change. That is why we are pleased to be working with the U.S. Institute of Peace and in partnership with the Institute for Security Studies and Open Society Foundations in making the second Africa Future Summit possible. And like fontated, I just want to take a moment to acknowledge all the staff across Humanity United, Open Society Foundations, the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Institute for Security Studies who have made this event possible. It is my hope that this discussion will contribute to the ongoing dialogue on how to catalyze Africa's potential to shape the global system, building on momentum of last year's discussion. Thank you so much and wishing you all an energizing, exciting, and thought-provoking set of discussions today. Now, allow me to introduce her Excellency, Dr. Sanzaba Gona, Deputy Chairperson African Union Commission. Prior to our election as Deputy Chairperson of the Commission, Dr. Sanzaba Gona held positions in the government of the Republic of Rwanda, including Minister of State in charge of economic planning, Minister of Trade and Industry, and Deputy Governor of the Central Bank. So the EU could not have been on bear in better hands. It is our sincere pleasure to have you here at USIP, and we are looking forward to your remarks. Thank you so much for coming. I have to address this. Dr. Joseph Sani, Vice President of Africa Central U.S. Institute for Peace, my dear brother Dr. Fonte Akum, the Executive Director of Institute for Security Studies, my new brother Srik Gopar, President of Humanity United, representatives of the diplomatic community are present, civil society organizations, ladies and gentlemen, allow me to stand on protocol already established and tell you how it gives me pleasure to speak to you this morning as you consider fundamental factors when looking to the future of multilateralism and the ways in which our partnerships can be leveraged. I'm encouraged to see considerable resources being placed to find answers to issues that have been, frankly, under discussions for decades. When it comes to Africa and the future of multilateralism, the goals are clear. We need more seats at the decision making table, be it at the G20, be it at the UN Security Council, at the WTO, be it at the very institutes that are headquartered here, and we are seeing some positive steps but not enough, considering the even-changing, ever-changing dynamics in the world as evidenced over the past few days. While the experts here in the room and online could continue to break new ground on how to find the solutions for the future, I believe the tenets that underpin Agenda 2063 provide some answers. As the implementation of the second tenure plan of this Agenda 2063 takes root, we know Africa's opportunities and challenges, including the potential mega transitions that could impact our ability to achieve our targets. We recognize the potential of Africa's rapidly growing population to drive economic growth and development but also acknowledge the challenges it poses. The second tenure implementation plan of our blueprint is underpinned by seven ambitions. We call them moonshots for the next ten years. These are aligned to each of the seven aspirations of the Agenda 2063. Particularly relevant for today's discussion is the seventh moonshot that Africa has to remain a strong and influential global player. In pursuing this vision to have an equal say in global decision-making, the African Union believes that a reformed multilateral system should be guided by a number of principles. The first being representation. It means getting a seat at the decision-making table. Secondly, we need more equity, fairness, and justice. And third, we need equality of the dignity of all nations and peoples, transparency, and the reaffirmation of commitment to the principles of the UN Charter and international law. To amplify Africa's peace and security priorities, the African Union continues to push for the reform of the UN Security Council. A new peace operation doctrine, a focus on national reconciliation, unaccountability, and transitional justice. Linked to our peace and security priorities, the African Union will engage on the following. We will engage firstly on the reform of the global financial architecture. If you could just give me more seconds, I would elaborate a little bit on this. So the existing architecture has been enabled to support the mobilization of stable and long-term financing at scale for investments needed to combat the climate crisis and achieve the sustainable development goals for the eight billion in the world today. It is plagued with inequities, gaps, and inefficiencies that need to be addressed. The African Union is pushing for reforms in the following areas. In the new global economic governance, in the debt relief and the course of sovereign borrowing, in international public finance, in the global financial safety net, in policy and regulatory frameworks that address short-termism in capital markets, better link private sector profitability with sustainable development and the sustainable development goals, and addressing financial integrity. And finally, in the global tax architecture for equitable and inclusive sustainable development. We are also engaged on just climate change agenda. During the just concluded African Union summit, our leaders adopted the Nairobi Declaration on Climate Change. The African Union will continue to work for the unity of African countries in negotiating forums under the leadership of the Committee of Heads of State and Governments on Climate Change, and with the Nairobi Declaration as the cornerstone of a common African position. The African Union will also push to rebuild trust in the power of multilateralism as the only strategy to effectively deal with the climate change challenges and the provision of support to local communities affected by alternating droughts and floods that have withered or flashed away crops and disseminated livestock. We are also engaged on global digital architecture. Increasingly, the digital agenda is also sphere of geopolitical contestation and posturing and should be subjected to inclusive and cooperative multilateral dialogues and policy formulation. The scope of a rethinking of the multilateral system includes issues such as the governance of artificial intelligence, including its impact on human rights and the conduct of wars, data mining and privacy, digital trade, currencies, telecommunication standards, and rules, space technologies, cyber security, and splinter nets to mention but a few. We are also engaged on effective representation of Africa in the G20. By the way, we could be talking about G21 now. The historic decision to expand the G20 membership to include the AU last year provides the African continent with an opportunity to engage as a permanent member of one of the key institutions in global governance. It will be critical for the African Union to ensure effective representation particularly in the financing track, in the share path track, and the engagement groups in this new G21. We are engaged as well on women and youth representation. This being the biggest actually demographics of that one quarter of the world population in a few years ahead, the pact of the future must ensure that women and youth are represented throughout and that this is a constant. We need to see progress that has been made continue. We know that challenges remain and the risk of reversal always is present. Agenda 2063 is not just a document or a plan. It is a living and breathing expression of our collective aspirations as Africans rooted in our history, culture and values. It's a call to action for all of us to work together to realize Africa we want, an Africa that is united, democratic, resilient and influential in the global arena, an Africa that is peaceful, an Africa that is integrated, an Africa that is putting its people at the core. As Africa stands at a crossroads, decisions we made today will shape the future of our continent for generations to come. The imperative to transition to inclusive green economies is not just a moral obligation, but a necessity for sustainable development. Allow me to stop here and thank you for having us and I wish all the success to this second summit for Africa futures. Thank you so much. Good morning everyone. It's always a good morning when we speak about Africa's future. But if I may please just indulge another round of applause for the fabulous statements and words by Dr. Nisanza Baganwa. Thank you. Outlining quite clearly the future that we're looking forward to for Agenda 2063 and Africa that we want. Very pleased as well to thank the partnership for the United States Institute of Peace, Humanity United as well as the Institute for Security Studies for this great summit that we're putting forward today. I'm Kizito Bianchiam from the Open Society Foundations. I'm our Director of Advocacy for Opportunities Coordination. That's a fancy word for our new strategies that we're taking forward, but pleased very much to be here with you today. And thank you as well to Dr. Sani and Dr. Fonte for outlining clearly, you know, where we are in the context in terms of where Africa is and the challenges that we're facing. And that's the first panel that we're going to be looking at today. The world is increasingly fragmented, as you all know, on critical global issues affecting Africa. The continent is in transition. That transition is shaped by current global dynamics that present challenges to materializing African agency in global affairs. So it's critical that we look at effective paths forward for the continent to rightfully take a stronger global role for what lies ahead. This summit, the Africa Future Summit, is to create this important space for informed dialogues that will identify opportunities and challenges for Africa's role in shaping and emerging global order. So the first of these dialogues is a session that will examine the potential impact of global trends on Africa's development, looking at several global development, different global scenarios, because the world is moving towards a more complex, multipolar, global power configuration. In this session, we first hear from Dr. Yaki Siliers on the future of Africa in this changing context, as well as policy recommendations that we should then consider. We will then open up for a panel discussion on the key factors that can propel or hinder Africa's path forward. So first, let me introduce Dr. Yaki. He is the founder and the former executive director of the Institute for Security Studies. He currently serves as chairman of the Institute for Security Studies Board of Trustees and head of the African Futures and Innovation Program in the Pretoria Office of the Institute. Thank you. Zito, thank you very much. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very much, friends. And I'm going to show you a website. You all, each of you, gained a little brochure and everything. Just make sure the sound is okay. Here is the sound. Okay, cool. I have to put on my glasses. So everything I'm going to show you is on the website. This is the front page of the African Futures homepage. You developed over several years. If you click on the link, what I understand is the hamburger you go to geographies and below you would be able to see a list and a long-term forecast for every African country, regional economic community and so on. There is something like 5,000 charts on this website and about a million words of text. It's one way of looking at the long-term future of Africa. Our forecasting horizon is up until 2043, which is the end of the third tenure implementation plan of Agenda 2063. Everything we do on the site is linked to Agenda 2063. You could also look at themes and the website. And I was saying to you, you could look at all countries and you can also thematically look at the long-term future of Africa across demographics, agriculture. What we've done for every country in Africa is we've forecast the future of that country looking at its current path forecast or its business as usual forecast until 2043 and then modeled a single aggressive positive scenario for Rwanda, whichever country it may be in education, agriculture, manufacturing and so on and so forth. And you can examine each of these themes here. I'm going to take you to Africa and the world. That's the theme of our discussion today. And with all of these themes, if you click on the left-hand side, you would find basically a drop-down menu that allows you to explore. And this instance is quite a long text and I would encourage you when you have a moment and you suffer from insomnia to read Africa and the world. And I'm going to take you to what we refer to as the slider. This is, sorry, this is the front page of this website, of this theme. So what we've done, this is a summary of quite a long document, a lot of work that went into this. I've forgotten to mention that we use the forecasting platform known as International Futures that is hosted and developed by the Frederick S. Party Center for International Futures in Denver University. We'll actually be going to visit Denver later this week to go and engage with our partners. They use that for the NIC report. UNDP uses it. A lot of African countries increasingly use this forecasting platform. Open source free. So we start our analysis by looking at material power. You know, you get soft power, hard power, smart power and so on. And for us and also in line with the analysis done by the Party Center in Denver, the China will probably overtake the US as the most powerful country, single country before mid-century. It's around 2040, early 2040s that happens. But the West, of course, is more than the United States. And we'll continue to dominate globally and maintain a technological and wealth advantage even over a BRICS Plus axis. BRICS Plus, as you would know, which has expanded recently. But its relative advantage is shrinking. With the growth of the global south, the future is much more likely that of regional rather than global. So regions are decoupling from the global commons. I think we see that clearly. It's nothing new. So it's becoming a complex multipolarity, you know, this hot, flat and crowded world. And what we also clearly see is a growing divide between the rich West and the rest. And government is under threat. In rich liberal democracies, they're losing authority and power to the private sector. We can only look to the extent to which social media is determining how we speak with one another. And the divisions that it is driving in our society. The ability of autocracies, China, North Korea, and in the Middle East, to buy off the desire for self-actualization through rapid growth is declining. And I'll come back to this. And in many poor countries, non-traditional groups are competing for state power, whether we speaking of the Eastern DRC or whichever example we want to use. So we use two axes on the vertical axis globalization, on the horizontal axis, extent of sustainability, to create, to model four extremes. A sustainable world, a divided world, a world at war, and a growth world. And I think this methodology is quite well known. It provides you with a way of framing how to think about the world. We can't predict. I wish we could, but we can't. These are the essential characteristics of each of those worlds. A sustainable world is the best world. This is the most difficult also to achieve. And most possible, a sustainable world will erupt from the world at war. A crisis will create the momentum possibly for moving forward. Because this is a rules-based world in which the UN Security Council doesn't have vetoes, doesn't have permanent members, it is changed. Our more likely future is either the divided world, but we are also heading possibly to a world at war kind of scenario. A fragmented world, tense world of clubs is how we would define the divided world, where the West is divided as bickering between the U.S. and the North Atlantic divides the world. The gap between the rich West and the global South widens. In a world at war, it's basically a story of successive wars. And I think at the moment, given what's happening in the Middle East, it's fairly obvious that this could, in actual fact, be emerging. But it is also possible through what is happening in Ukraine and elsewhere. This is my polarity on steroids. And then in a growth world, this is a dangerous world where money dominates politics. And in actual fact, everything gives way to greater inequality and to the pursuit of profit. These are the four worlds. The world looks very different in these four worlds. This is the size of the gross domestic product of in 2019 of the rest of the world and Africa at the bottom. And then for each of these four scenarios, the rest of the world in the top and the size of the African economy at the bottom. Africa's three, four percent of the global economy. We are 18 percent of the world's population. But we don't really have much material power. These are the African, sorry, this is global carbon emissions that is linked to each of these scenarios. As you would expect, in a growth world, carbon emissions are the highest. These are carbon, not CO2 equivalent for the purists in the room. In a divided world, sort of closer to the current trajectory, we find that carbon emissions remain largely flat. Of course, at a world at war, while the global economy is much smaller, carbon emissions are higher. And of course, a sustainable world, the world that we would hope we could provide to our children. These are the African futures that are associated with each of those four global scenarios. In the sustainable world, sustainable development goals are implemented, the continental free trade area is fully implemented. Africa grows at about 7.7 percent. Now, our current path forecast for Africa's growth is about 4.5, 4.6 percent, which is closest to the divided world. So a sustainable world growth trajectory of 7.7 percent is not high. Africa needs more than double that if it is to eliminate extreme poverty. So this is an average growth rate for all of Africa's 55 countries, and it is much better than where we are headed at the moment. We all know the stories of globalization, reductions in global growth, and we are headed for challenges in this regard. In a divided world, Africa is instrumentalized by China, by the US. We grow at about 4.5 percent here. There's limited trade integration, but elections are often fraudulent, so we don't really find a growth in liberal democracy. In the world at war, Africa still grows, or Africa grows almost under any scenario, because growth comes from labor capital and technology, and our growing population size, growing labor force, just means that the African economy will grow, but GDP per capita will not grow. So this is where secessionist movements multiply Africa does not do well. In the growth world, greater inequality, fairly rapid reductions in extreme poverty, but the continent fragments. In actual fact, it divides between different regions. North Africa orientated towards Europe, West Africa maybe towards the US, Central, Southern and East Africa mostly towards China and India. This is just to show you, this is exactly the same slide I showed you previously, but I've taken the rest of the world out, and you can see the very large difference in the size of the African economy in 2043 compared to 2019 in each of these scenarios. For Africa, the sustainable world and the growth world would deliver more or less the same economic size, but of course carbon emissions and poverty levels are very, very different. This is an illustration of what happens with extreme poverty. Now we know that Africa will miss the sustainable development goals of eliminating extreme poverty by a very large margin. Even in the second tenure annual plan of the Africa Union that we hope to develop in Nairobi a few months ago, we're accepting that it is not possible for Africa to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. If I remember correctly, by 2033 our goal in the second tenure plan is 23% extreme poverty that we now think is achievable under high growth scenario. That's quite a change. So this is percent of population on the left hand side. It is number of people on the right hand side. Let us say our current trajectory globally is somewhere between a divided world and a world at war. That's the divided world, 17%, equivalent to about 393 million extremely poor Africans by 2043. This is a hugely depressing forecast and it is extremely concerning, whereas our potential could be in an ideal sustainable world to get to about 8% extreme poverty. Yeah, compared to a sustainable world, the divided world, which is sort of our current trajectory, will see Africa release 36% more carbon, GDP per capita will be 17% lower and extreme poverty will be about 55% higher. In Ukraine, the fear of China's rising influence and the events in Gaza have significant collateral effects. The global south and the developed north world divide is increasing and increases with every literally passing day. Yet Africa needs China. It needs the European Union. It needs the United States to develop and reduce poverty. It cannot make a choice of the one above the other. Even as its developmental issues will increasingly be determined by rising Asia, globally, growth and opportunities moving towards Asia. It's not an indictment of the West to say that. It's simply a statement of the reality. Africa's foreign policy and development efforts should unequivocally advance geopolitical stability. Have done much analysis over many years. The most unstable period in Africa's history was in the run up to the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, when tension in the first world pushed war out into Africa and Africa suffered. The chances are that that could be happening again. We need to avoid being instrumentalized, whether that is on Ukraine or that is on Taiwan. We need to pursue sustainable growth and actively support a next generation rules based global system. Gazito? Because I know the open society have an interest in looking at what needs to happen with that global future. I'm almost finished. From an African perspective, the West needs to differentiate between China and Russia and resist simplistic narratives that put the benevolent West against a bad China associated with evil Russia in Africa. That is, the danger is forcing that alliance, if I can put it this way, that it happens despite our best efforts. The problem, the challenge that we face, those that believe in democracy and human rights, is that the Chinese party will not abandon its collective views on politics and development. They believe that that is the way to development. And there are many Africans that share that view, African leaders, not many African citizens. Democratic countries will not abandon their belief in individual freedoms and political rights, and nor should they. In addition to the accelerated impact of climate change, and we, at lunchtime, we will speak a little bit about our energy and our climate forecasts that we just completed. Of course, we can't predict the future. And any number of developments of wild card could upset this. So the first is the democratization of China. While we may want that from a normative perspective, the democratization of China, which some would say inevitable, would come with huge global economic consequences, negative consequences. Ongoing political polarization eventually conflict in the United States. You guys are so divided, you know, you make the rest of us seem quite peaceful. Substantive expansion on all contraction of the European Union, because the EU is emerging as a third important pole of a rules-based system. Political integration in Asia and India's foreign policy orientation in particular. Asia is economically integrated, but not politically. And then, of course, technology, artificial intelligence, which is increasingly becoming a threat to democracy, to the way we live and interact, and to jobs in particular. Huge problem looking long-term. So, a set of recommendations from Africa. No, Africa doesn't need geopolitical. We need geopolitical stability. We don't know China, US rivalry, instrumentalization. What we need is to relentlessly pursue our developmental interests. It means we need to be clear about what are the conditions for foreign direct investment. We need knowledge transfers, domestic economic linkages. We need to protect intellectual property rights. Full transparency on all government contracts, loans to state and state-owned enterprises, no hidden debt, non-reciprocal tax information and exchange mechanisms. We need to strengthen our continental institutions to have a legally binding protocol on good governance, which we don't really have. The platform that we have is not a binding commitment. Focus on the development of common continental standards, for example, in railway lines and so on, because that's an actual factor where we can make progress. We need reform of financial and trade architecture, reduce the cost of sovereign borrowing, provide debt relief, democratize decision-making process, particularly amongst the Breckenwood institutions. We need scale development and financial assistance from private sources. We need global tax reform. Accelerate the full implementation of the continental free trade area. These things are all well known. Focus on environmental stability, invest in agriculture. We love to talk about agriculture in Africa, but Africa desperately needs an agricultural revolution. Without food security, you cannot grow. It's fundamental. We need to act collectively, internationally, also in New York with the A3, on climate policy, global governance, and of course, support Africa's development in all kinds of areas. Colleagues, this is an example, a test of some of the work that we have done on the African futures platform. There is much more. It is, as I've said, about a million words of text and you can interrogate the site. There's an artificial intelligence bot on the front page. So thank you very much, Kizito, for giving me the opportunity to speak. No problem. If I may, I'll introduce the first panel. And if you please take your seats on stage. Okay, welcome. Welcome. So here we're here for the first panel, which will be about Africa's role, global role in the world. Pleased to be joined on this panel by Joy Basu. Joy serves as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of African Affairs, overseeing economics and regional affairs. Her portfolio includes commercial diplomacy, trade and investment, sanctions, climate, food security, democracy, human rights, governance, strategic competition and multilateral matters. What else do you not do? But very, very pleased to have Joy join us today. Thank you, Joy. And then we're also joined by Vemba Zolele, who is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS. He's also a lecturer in African Studies at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. And prior to CSIS, he was the Africa Senior Advisor at the International Republican Institute. Thank you for joining us, Vemba. Next to Vemba is Abby Ogunwale, who is the Vice President for Strategic Growth and Business Development at One Earth Future. Abby is responsible for intelligence gathering, developing strategic partnerships, leading competitive proposal development and building One Earth Future's pipeline of opportunities across all programs. Thank you for joining us. And last but not least is Dr. Sani. Dr. Joseph Sani is the Vice President of the Africa Center at the United States Institute of Peace. Dr. Sani has been at the forefront of peace building with civil society, governments, businesses and international organizations in Africa for over 20 years. Thank you. And we look forward to this discussion today. So first things first, and thank you for the presentation by Dr. Yaki. I think he really laid out the stage about the different scenarios and what we should be considering for the different proposals in future for Africa. So we'll take that presentation to go into the first question for all of the panelists. So his presentation laid out the trends for Africa's development in four global scenarios. Sustainable world, divided world, world at war and a growth world. Which solutions resonate to you as well as what else will be important to consider in terms of priorities in our increasingly multipolar world? Joy, can I have you tackle that one first? Of course, happy to. And thank you again. Casito, thank you to all our hosts and everyone both in the room and online for being here. And congratulations again to ISS for the fantastic report. I'm looking forward to bringing more elements of that into our conversation today. I'll be brief, but I would say two elements really resonated with me. The first was the need for African integration and accelerating all the work that's being done towards Agenda 2063, particularly from the economic lens, accelerating implementation of the AFCFTA, and the opportunity and need for Africa to speak, both with a more unified voice, but to do so increasingly in every global fora. That is incredibly important, as the deputy chair mentioned at the top, that we need African voices, not only for African perspectives, but for global solutions. So that was the first thing. The second thing that really struck me is the need to reform these global institutions to be fit for purpose. And we can talk more about that, but I'm curious to hear from my distinguished panelists, and so I'll stop there. Great. Thank you so much. African voices for global solutions and institutions matter. Vemba, what's your take? Thank you, Casito. And I want to join my colleague in thanking everyone and thanking you, various institutions for hosting us. I believe actually in the clubs, I believe that Africa needs to refocus on regional integration, first and foremost. In Africa, we love pie in the sky. We love talking about Pan-Africanism. We have to talk about that. We are a big continent. I mean, Yaki's presentation underscored that. 54 countries. We cannot copy Europe. Just because there's an EU doesn't mean we have to have an EU right away. We've not been able to settle that weight with the EU. Let's go to ECOWAS. Let's make ECOWAS work. Let's get ECAS to work. Let's get SATEC to work. Those are huge blocks that can stand up to Europe, that can stand up to China. We don't need the entire continent to do that. Maybe someday, 50 years from now, we'll get there. But I don't think we're there. That's my take. Thanks. Thank you. Thank you. Great perspective as well. Abby, your thoughts as well. Thank you so much. And thanks to ISS and the rest of the also the other organizations on the panel. I think I do agree with making the regional entities work and successful. But to add to what Mr. Yaki mentioned, I think also building the capacity of African governments so that we can know the best ways to approach these global traditional institutions will be key. Investing more in research institutions, investing more in think tanks, investing more in policy elements within the continent will help to also package our collective voices and present it in the most effective way. Because it's one thing to know what to do. There's another thing to now to package it with a collective influence to make it work. So I think that piece may look a little bit small but it will go a long way if we build the capacity of the people who put in front so that they can get it right on our behalf. That's a great point, especially on research and development. And if I may, if you look at what happened with that pandemic, for example, Africa's role in producing its own vaccines, own manufacturing capacity, that helped its response and going forward. So that's an important point about capacity. Dr. Sani. First of all, I would like to thank ISS for the fantastic report. Yaki, thank you for the presentation. I will double down on integration. I think while we don't want to dream about the sky and the sky, but I think it's important to study in the ground for integration. I think that will be number one. And I think also in the report there is a very provocative title of is Africa a pawn or a player? And I think that question goes down to the agency of African countries. Do we want to really take the responsibility of the agency of being part of this world where one out of four persons will be Africa and therefore assert our agency? And this boils down to, I could not stop thinking of the Africa, the Agenda 2063. I think the Agenda 2063 really operationalize what Africa agency will look like. And I agree with you, November, that maybe we should not dream of the big EU, but setting that vision should be a clear motivation for any part of the Africa continent, whether it is Ecuador or Sadec, etc. But I think the Agenda 2063 operationalize that agency that Africans need and set us to that part of integration that we desperately need. Fantastic. I hope like you, you can see what I'm seeing in this blueprint of action taking shape and important words by Dr. Sanyan integration and the need to really be able to look and see how we can focus and prioritize. So moving on from these important priorities that you all have outlined, it's still going to be difficult because the world is changing. It's still in the transition. We're not in a perfect world where we can achieve our goals just like that. And so, you know, even if you look at the past, Africa has had a limited role in shaping global orientations. With this increasingly multipolar and divided world, raising even more challenges to break this status quo, what will hinder Africa's path forward to take on these priorities that you've outlined? Joy, if I may. I think I'll stick with the same two themes I had before, one of integration. And, you know, I'll take your cue and maybe I'll be a little bit, I won't be apple pie, as we say in the United States. I'll say a few things that are controversial. I think that anytime that you think about integration that requires certain players of strength to seed power. And I heard a saying lately, which I think is really interesting, which is you can spell seed, you know, C-E-D-E, or we can think about seed, S-E-E-D, seeding power. How do we grow kind of the voices at the table? I think that's very important. And I would put it as a challenge to African leaders of we've had some very strong voices around the continent, but if the continent is to speak with one voice, some of those major players will have to let others speak as well. And some of these regional rivalries, I do think can be a challenge. And so I'll just call that out. I think the second going to the global institutions that we need to think about is there's another saying, you know, if you're not at the table, you're on the table. And I think that has been Africa's history. And I think we need to be very mindful of that. I've been very proud in the way that the United States has championed the AU's permanent chair in the G20. I think that's very, very important, and that has been a goal of the Biden administration. And I'm very happy that we've been able to see that come to fruition. I think now we need to make sure that we are continuing to reform these institutions, whether it's the clubs or whether it is the financial institutions, to make sure that not only do these voices get represented, but we are thinking about the economic factors that build the world that we need. So in the report we heard, if we don't factor externalities into the way that our economy works, you know, as a deep capitalist, I know that if we are not thinking about how we price carbon, we are not, for example, paying for the fact that Africa has the Congo River Basin, which allows the world to breathe. We need to find a way for those economics to make sense with the, with the sustainable world we need. And therefore we need to reform the institutions to match that. But I do think that there's a inertia around. And I would say just the third element is, even since this conversation we had last year, the world is in a more difficult place, right? The war in Ukraine has extended on and it looks much less optimistic for democratic forces. We have a tragic situation, you know, continuing to unfold in Gaza. We are one year of the war, the civil war in Sudan. You know, I think last year I was much more optimistic. I think I have to be candid that, as you said in your question, these forces are real and therefore we need to act with more urgency in order to overcome them. Great. Thank you so much, Joy. Vemba, your take? Very good. Thank you very much. Talking about integration, we cannot integrate continent-wide when we're not integrated in our region. It just makes no sense. Senegal cannot integrate with Botswana if Senegal is not integrated within ECOWAS. And then in terms of seeding power or seeding that influence, for region to work we need would-be edgemons. We know that ECOWAS worked when Nigeria was working better. And when Nigeria started scrambling, we saw what happened to ECOWAS. Nigeria is incapable to follow through with its trade to Niger, because Nigeria does not deliver anything to Niger than to scare Niger. So we see this all over the region. So to me, until we get that, where the would-be edgemons will rally people in the region and rise other countries that may be smaller, then we cannot really speak with that voice. When regions are strong, they can come together and stand up to or against anything else that comes their way. So that on one level. And then I think it's very important that we realize that unless our own countries work. So in terms of statistics, I love this business of one out of four human beings will be African. But it actually doesn't mean anything. Nigerians know this. Nigerians like to say this all the time. One out of four African is Nigerian. And I always ask, so what? What difference does it make to a Botswani that one out of four is Nigerian? It doesn't really matter. Because when an African opens his refrigerator, a refrigerator, there's no Nigerian product in it. So one out of four, the Chinese don't say that. The Indians don't say that. You never had the Chinese say, you know, one out of three in the world is Chinese because they deliver. And I think until we start delivering on the economic side, it's just that statistics. Thank you. Great insights. Agency delivering and ensuring that there is a way that we integrate as well to, you know, teamwork always makes the dream work. Abby? Yeah, nothing else to add to that. I think but I'll just call it, you know, the point that I think we can take. I think a lot of this actually came out last month in Abuja during the African regional dialogue. And I encourage everyone to read the declarations. In fact, most of these were captured. So yeah, unity and representation from the regional networks to African continent wide, I think will make us better. I agree. Thanks, Abby. Dr. San. Yeah, I think conflict, conflict will be an obstacle. I mean, if we cannot stop the conflicts and the instability across the Sahel bed or the horn in Sudan, I mean, eight million refugees in Sudan, how will you go a place like that in the Sahel? For example, it's because with those conflicts coming stability and ineffective governors, if we can't govern our states, we can move forward, forget the, forget, yes, the one out of four. It matters, but we have to be well governed. And if you are not well governed, you can't feed your people. You can provide medicine. You can't educate your people. So I think conflict will be a major impediment to the growth of African countries, I think. That's a great point. And, you know, on this point of conflict, it's a great impediment. And we've seen the proliferation of that over the last few years. Maybe Mbemba can come to you on this issue of conflict, especially as it relates to security. So, you know, Africa has often existed at the periphery of global governance. You know, when it comes to security, but as well as what other issues, what should Africa prioritize in terms of securitization and global cooperation? For example, you know, the impact of climate on security, what other innovations and what with this issue is important to consider to address these obstacles for that will prevent or hinder Africa's future? Thank you, Kizito. I think there's an issue, Sunny just referred to this, governance. If there is good governance, good governance means also talking to your neighbor. Good governance means addressing your own people and taking into account what they really need. So, if we look at the drought, for instance, the expansion of the Sahel, used to go from Guinea, maybe, you know, Hertzman will stop the banks or the shores of Lake Chard. Well, Lake Chard is drying up. It's almost gone. So, now these Hertzmen go all the way to DRC. And part of it, to the point that Sunny's making, there's failed governance all over the place. Governments are not mitigating the conflict. As a matter of fact, various governors in Nigeria, for instance, seize on this friction to make a political career out of it. And then by the time you end up to DRC in a place like Ituri, then Bororo are having their field day with the local population. And the Congolese government, of course, is not present to address this. So, I think if we don't address this at our local levels, then it's impossible for us to tap into the mechanisms that exist at the international level. So, there's a failure at both levels, right? There's that international level. At the international level, there's a problem. Because the narrative of conflict itself is Euro-centered, right? So, it's Canada is burning. Therefore, you guys in Niger do not do this. Otherwise, you'll be worstly affected. Or the US is sinking, California is sinking, you guys inside Nigeria, please don't do your oil. Don't touch it anymore. So, stuff that actually do not make any sense. Nigeria, Congo, Niger, everybody has been facing climate change for a long time. And it has nothing to do with what Canada is burning or not. So, we're not addressing those in ways that will make sense to our local communities at home, because we're also tapping into these narratives that do not make sense. And with a point, we saw this with COVID. We saw this with COVID where we bought in these Western narratives that were not anchored in the realities of Africa. The challenge with Western narratives, they don't adjust. Yeah, they just frozen in that narrative. So, if they say poor Africans, they will disappear with COVID. When Africans don't die as much, then the West will say, they're not reporting the numbers properly. As opposed to saying, maybe our narrative is wrong. Anybody who's lived in Africa knows that Africans don't hide their debt. There's no such thing as a private funeral. So, whether Sierra Leone reports or not, everybody will know that they're dying. So, this is also not the friction that we need to take into consideration. Thanks. Great. Thank you so much for that. And staying on this theme of the challenges, you mentioned debt. We haven't really spoken about that. How can Africa pursue its development interests and this prioritization that you're pointing out, as well as this larger global role, when it's straddled with so much debt, what solutions are necessary then for economic growth in this kind of environment? Joy, maybe if I can come to you on that. Yeah, happy to. Undoubtedly, when you look at the data, it stems from COVID, the spending that happened during that period and the failure to grow afterwards in the ways that African governments thought they would in 2016, 2017, 2018. We talked about this being a shared responsibility. And so, I will say, one piece is for the rest of the world and one piece is for Africans and African leaders. For the rest of the world, I think we do need to think about, you know, the presentation talked about debt forgiveness. I think we need to think about concessional financing and reorienting our global finance system to enable long-term investment capital so that we are not just putting money into servicing our debt. Right now, I think I saw that, you know, there are certain countries, I believe Kenya, they're spending 59% of revenues on debt service, which is, if that was any household, it would be completely absurd. So we need to figure out a way to be investing in a productive future. How do we invest in agricultural futures? And so, you know, I'm very proud that just three weeks ago, President Biden signed bipartisan legislation to make the United States one of the largest contributors to the poverty reduction growth trust at the IMF, which will make the United States the largest contributor in concessional finance, which is so important for African countries. But on the African leadership side, I think we need to incredibly improve transparency, and that's where the fact of data comes in. Transparency is to how public financing is spent. And I think we need to spend more on human capital, right? Africa's greatest resource, it's not its oil, it's not its minerals, it's its people. One thing that people talk about when we say one in four people will be Africans, one in three people of working age will be Africans. And that will either be the world's greatest asset or it will be the world's greatest liability. And so if we're not investing in their health, in their education, in their food security, and if we're not holding African governments accountable for how they spend that money and doing so transparently, no debt, no amount of debt forgiveness or concessional financing will help. So those are the two pieces I would say if we're really going to move forward with shared responsibility towards, you know, in an ideal world shared prosperity, but as the report showed, you know, maybe just, you know, something at 7%. Great, thank you for outlining those options and also the important point on shared prosperity. Abby, if you also want to chime in on the economics of this, but let me throw another question as well too, because a theme that's also been emerging is this need to prioritize and look at governance that you've also touched on. So if you want to touch base on economics, but also when we look at traditional forms of global governance, you know, Africa took a step, positive step forward last year on multilateralism, as we've heard earlier today, joining the G20, G20 plus one, you know, where it will have more of a say, un-global cooperation. Furthermore, we've had a recent consultation in Abuja for regional dialogue that resulted in the declaration and recommendations for the summit of the future. So what is important for Africa to consider for its role with the G20 and other traditional institutions, like the UNSC or what's happening with the summit of the future for African agency to thrive and have a greater say in global decision making. And if you want to throw in a bit on the economics, please feel free to as well. Okay, I'll start with the part of what is needed to thrive because we've heard a lot today from the presentation to all the points. There are a lot of, and even the remarks, the opening remarks, each one of them actually made recommendations, things that we're doing. So Africa is already thriving. We are not just demanding, we are contributing to even the global economy. And I believe that the little things that we can add or as recommendations to consider would be how to continue to maintain that united front so that when we're discussing Africa in the context of the G20 or G21 or even G22, which is what we said in Abuja, should be two slots, making G22, hopefully. I think coming together and presenting the challenges that affect Africa first when we're dealing with these traditional global governance structures is key. There are some challenges that are peculiar to countries, but there are some that cut across the entire continent. Health is one. Conflict, climate, we need to be known and we need to be on the same page like we did in Nairobi with that declaration on climate change. That is not for Kenya, it's not for Ethiopia, it's not for Nigeria, it's not for Cameroon, it's for Africa. So I think doing more of that will help us to continue to thrive because our goal is to do anything and everything possible to be relevant and to ensure that we are engaging and participating in the debates, in the initiatives, in making recommendations and declarations. So I think if we add all these recommendations that we've made today, plus the 10 take away from the presentation and then we glaze it with just how to ensure that it gets to the table, right, actively and we stay there until we see you through and we also coach and build the capacity of those people sitting at that table leading the charge for us, many of them on this table, on this panel, right, I think that will really make us continue to thrive. So I really want to stress that point, we are not going to start thriving at any point in time in the future because it's started already, you know, the statistics is very clear, the, you know, even the power point is clear. The global economy compared to African economy and the contribution is rising, right, even with all the four different scenarios that we saw, the different types of words we can get, Africa is still increasing compared to where it is today. So I think just packaging everything together and ensuring that when we are making a case for Africa, we prioritize those issues and challenges that cut across the entire continent, that rise from the regional entities, then African Union and then we package that way. I think these two global governance mechanisms that you mentioned, the G20 and the Security Council, they will be able to see the relevance that we bring to the table. Great, thank you. And if anyone would like to also touch base on these more traditional institutions, what other priorities, if you're looking at reform, should we be considering for these institutions? I think we are facing a crisis of multilateralism, whether it is the EU, whether it is the EU, whether it is the United Nations. I mean, with all the challenges and the tension between the superpowers or the global powers. So, I mean, multilateralism is under stress. In Africa, particularly, you have this divorce between the multilateral institutions and the people. ECOWAS is a great example. ECOWAS of the people or ECOWAS of the head of states. The EU of the people or EU of the head of states. So we have at least in Africa the reforms must go towards reconnecting these multilateral spaces with citizens of the continent. I go back to the Agenda 263. I was relatively young, I don't know, not young, but when the concept of Africa renaissance, the great generation of the President Alfa Omar Connery or Bassangio, Abdullah Iwad, we were dreaming back then. So there was that connection between that agenda and the citizens. Everybody remembers Africa renaissance. We remember all those things. But where is that agenda today? I bet you. You serve the current head of state to mention two flagship projects. Of the Agenda 263. I bet the dollar, they will not. Two. Just two. Out of the 15, they will not. So again, because there is such a disconnect between those multilateral spaces. And you have the same problem in the EU. It's not just an African problem. You have the same thing in the UN. If the first step will really be to reconnect that social contract between those multilateral spaces and citizens. And in Africa, you can start by little things like introducing the EU in school curriculum. Higher education or just high school. What is the EU? A whole course on the EU. We can do that just to reconnect. Because alone, we will, if we go separate it, we are very tiny countries. Of course, Nigeria is a big country. But frankly, I also adopted Ethiopia. But I think the first step is really to reconnect this multilateral, how to find a way to reconnect these multilateral spaces, institutions, with the Africans. That's a great, great point. Yeah, just on, I'll go back on that there. I think African countries have to go back to the fundamentals. It's basic. I think we've lost sight of that. What is the government for? What is the state for? I've totally forgotten that. The UN, leave the UN alone. It's failing, let it fail. It will be okay. They need to be reformed. These are post-World War II institutions that have not adjusted to the realities of the rest of the world. But for African countries, if African countries are unable to collect taxes, there's no point of talking about the EU. There's no point of talking a course. So if you're not feeding your people, if you cannot pay, those of us who travel to a country like Nigeria, we end up hiring police officers to be with us all day long. What does that mean? I mean, how can a country, latest police officer, accompany visitors daily? That means somebody's not getting police service. When we pay all this money for visas that you just pay someone, you get your same-day visa, it's not going to the state coffers. This goes for the DRC, and that's a big country. You want to talk about big countries? But the money's not there. We talk about cobalt. We talk about everything that is wrong with the international systems. But nobody asks, where is the money from the cobalt? Where is it going? Why is it not going to state coffers? So until we do that, it's very difficult to be credible when we raise these grievances with international institutions. I'm not saying they're doing the right thing, but I'm just saying we also are not credible. Great point. And it's hard to be credible at times when you don't take that agency or when there's not this leadership in terms of the role that Africa will play in the world. And so picking up on what both you and Dr. Saniya are saying, maybe we can come back to you, Dr. Saniya, and this is, when you look at, you know, Vemba mentioned that you and maybe needs to fail. But there's also a movement around looking at new forms of global governance. So when we look at that, for example, there have been more countries this year looking to join BRICS, as well as efforts by African states to have a global mediation role, such as the effort with Ukraine, or on peacekeeping, as we've seen with Kenya and IT. So what new efforts then should be prioritized? What of these new avenues should we be looking at for Africa's future? It's good. Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned all those initiatives. I think, again, those, some of them, those initiatives are very ad hoc. You need systemic and sustained engagement, right? And so we, I'm coming back to the theme of the African institution for the people. There is a dormant, there are dormant institutions like the African parliament or the eco-aspirated parliament. That may be a way to connect citizens with those institutions. If we can restrain them, those spaces where individual needs, for example, the conflict in Sudan, we have been pushing, pushing for citizen voices to be heard. It took the power be almost a year to create space for citizens to express and to share the ideas. So more spaces for citizens, more civic spaces to engage, for citizens to be present, to exercise the agency will be a good start. For example, in the Sahel countries with coup d'etats, the first thing is to shut down the civic space, to shut down your citizens. I mean, these countries have become open prisons. How can you move forward when you shut down 99% of your citizens? It's not possible. And so I think opening that space for citizens to express themselves, creating structure is not a kumbaya, okay? It's not like bringing citizen and talk. We think methodically and systematically how to harness the power of Africans will be very important. To come back to our states, we should not put all the states in the same basket. Some countries in Africa are well run, well managed. Some, unfortunately, big countries have problems of big countries, but we have also just wanted to cover that some African, thank God, many African states are well managed. Well, it's a question of numbers, though. I mean, out of 54 countries, those well managed, are they five? Are they two? Are they three? They're one. Vemba wants to get us into the details. Thank you. Thank you for that. So maybe just one last thing. Joy, Abby, as well, if you want to chime in on what else should the rules-based world order, where else should that be redefined and redesigned to address the concerns of Africa, so leaning into this theme of what else should be new and should be changed? I will say a couple things. Knowing this is kind of use of the last question, so I would just emphasize what some of my colleagues have said. One, could not agree more with closing civic space across the continent, and it's, I think, a reason of tremendous concern. Not only in the states where we have seen coups, but even in those that hope to be democracies. I think we see that civic space closing, and I think we all have a responsibility to not only uplift Africa's voice in global institutions, but first uplift the voices of Africans in their own countries. One cannot happen without the other. Two, the point of governance. This goes back to the point of transparency and linking how are you collecting taxes to what are you spending on? If you're not spending it on the people, then what is there for the state? I will say one thing that sounds a little bit contradictory, but I actually don't think it is. Yes, we need more kind of integration. We need the AFCFTA, but one thing that we do in our commercial diplomacy work in trying to have U.S. companies invest more in Africa is also distinguish. Benin is not Burkina Faso, right? And to uplift the countries that are making the right choices and trying to show that track record so that you have some healthy competition. And with this, I'll bring it back to the United States, because I think, as an American, that is first and foremost kind of what we can kind of represent and where we control. And I would say, one thing that concerns me is the same thing that you pointed out for Africans. I grew up in a country that identity as an American was something that was very unifying. And Dr. Yaki pointed out at the beginning that even we are facing our own divisions. And so I don't want to point at Africans and say, you should be more united. I actually feel that responsibility as an American for my own country. And so just as we are all in this together, and we have a shared responsibility, I think that starts with being at home. That starts with being an American. It starts with being a Nigerian. It starts with being an African for how these identities add. And it starts with being members of a global community. So maybe I'll stop there and think about how we stack our identities, but first start with how we do that with our own neighbors as you said. Thank you. Thank you so much. And Abby, any last words? I know we're going to open it up for a few questions from the audience. So please get your questions ready. Thank you. Honestly, I don't have anything else to add other than, you know, just keep stressing the point of the unity and representation. So that, you know, you're right. Beanie is different from Burkina Faso. But we also want people to come with an open mind because there are a lot of things we cannot control because of weak governance and structures. But yeah, God bless Africa. Thank you. Thank you so much. So any questions from the audience? We have two. We'll take both of those questions. Thank you. Thank you, chair. Thanks, panelists. Great debate. Great discussion. Thank you for enriching our knowledge. I would like to challenge the idea that pushing for really focusing more on regional body maybe because the AU may not work. I really don't want us to go back to the debate that happened 60 years ago at the evening of the independence. Today we know that there are issues, items that we only need a continental body to deal with that can be done by regions. And it's important because it is why the ongoing reform of the AU has been started. And unfortunately it failed. I'm sorry to say but that reform, I remember the suggestion made by President Kagame was to reduce the amount of things that the AU is handling, let those small teams to the regional bodies. If we keep to that, of course we're going to need the AU to handle those continental related issues and we'll let the regional bodies to do the other one. And maybe one of the last, the second and last other region reason why we really need to reinforce the AU while working with the regional bodies that in Africa, the entire big region where we don't see a serious regional bodies, they don't Africa for example. If we do that then nothing is going to happen there. But there are situations where we need a continental body as the AU which today has a strong political stand. Even though in a practical way it's not making any change, like not much change in the people's life. But politically for us to be able to get to the table at G20, we need something like the AU. This is not something that only a sub-regional body can do. I just want to add that one. Last point and to Dr. Yaki, you refer to, I like your presentation and you refer to the need of having like more binding treaties to make things happen. But again if you go back to the petro of the AU today, there are many but nothing happening. I just want to ask you if what would you think about a certain mechanism and accountability mechanism agree with everybody that maybe bring us on a table where everybody account to how or what they are doing with what we have agreed already, what is already binding. For example the Charter of Democracy Elections is binding basically. But if you see the report from various countries, like nothing happened. I just want to have your thoughts on is there a way to have an accountability mechanism within the continent so that we have more concrete. Great. Thank you so much. And we'll just do one last question. We only have time for that. Sorry for the full audience. But accountability mechanism, is there a route for that? Dr. Yaki, if you can quickly answer that. And the second question. Yeah. Thank you very much. Let me be on behalf of EGAT. Thank the organizers for inviting us. I'm Simon Yamura. I work for EGAT. Three quick questions. One. We can only have space for one. So if you can transform it to one excellent question. Let me ask. When I'm looking at Africa future, where is the place of industrialization? Because we cannot continue. I'm taking a lot of coffee here and I'm looking for any tree of coffee around here and I can't see it. So how do we move Africa towards industrialization? Secondly, the leadership. We are keeping on talking. I only like this book of Chinua Chenbe, The Problem with Nigeria's Leadership. And I think we should move, Nigeria just put Africa. How do we inspire the next generation of leaders who are able to help the continent? The third one is when I go to Europe and see the Shegan visa and I look at Africa and where I have to get visa even going to the next door, how do you allow our people to move and be able to integrate infrastructure? You have to go to Ethiopia. I don't know where, where before you get to Nigeria. How do we help our people to move? Unless we do that, we are wasting time talking about Africa future. We have no future. Great. Thank you so much. It's Dr. Yaki. Thank you very much. I'll be very brief because it's a complex issue that we've discussed many, many times over and over again. My personal view is until such time as we give the chair of the Africa Union Commission not much greater power and responsibility, nothing else will change because heads of state see the Africa Union as an intergovernmental secretariat. They don't see it as a supranational body to which they are prepared to devolve responsibility. There are many examples that we can achieve quick ones. The Yamasukura decision on Open Skies would be a very good example. There are so many of these things and we set the Commission up to fail because the whole time we're adding stuff for them to do, we don't give them enough money and we don't give them the authority. Then afterwards we say, and you guys can't deliver, but they can't deliver. It's impossible. For me, it's really in a sense narrowing some of the responsibilities down and giving the authority for the chair of the Commission, for example, to play a much larger role in the appointment and the selection of commissioners that will be selected, directors and so on and so forth. We all know these things, but what will we do? We'll bring in some consultants, some new elected chair will come with a new design and in fact the Africa Union slowly, slowly goes backward in terms of the extent of implementation of decisions which are being reduced the whole time because we overload the institution. So at the heart of this is fundamental reform and not fundamental reform to expand its job but to give more authority and to clamp down on what it needs, what it needs to do. Great, thank you so much. And so for this vinyl question from our colleague from IGAD, thank you so much for that touching on industrialization leadership. We'll go to Joy first, then Vemba to respond. I'll start on industrialization because I think you're completely right, but I also think we can't fall into the model of Africa will develop in the same kind of linear path as we've seen because we don't have time for that. We need faster development across industrialization, across agriculture, across services. I think we need to use the ways in which the technologies we have now to do all of it, you know they're saying in the US, belt and suspenders, I would say belt, suspenders, elastic, we have a billion people to lift out of poverty. I think the most striking fact to me is the ways in which we're falling short on eliminating extreme poverty and we can't be complacent. So yes when it comes to industrialization but I would also say let's not get locked into that being the only model or kind of the only path for economic growth. Let's do that plus other policies that acknowledge services and other industries in which we can do job creation and job skilling and we can connect across the world. On the point of accountability, one thing I'd say is your report talked a little bit about AI. I actually hope we can find Africa's digital kind of prowess and leadership to hold accountability more through digital means, right? There are so many applications of AI to say where is the money going? Why isn't the money being spent here? This is the aberration. You know we think about AI solutions in my opinions you know for some of the most mundane things. How do I roast my coffee a bit better? But we don't think about you know how do we solve these huge challenges? And so I'd end by saying you know there are so many brilliant kind of sources of data and African problem solvers. How do we use these technologies to actually solve these big challenges we have particularly in governance so that we can all live better? So I'll stop there. Thank you so much. Thank you. Briefly. Okay thank you. So I start with our friend from IGAD about 10 years ago, maybe 20 years ago. I have no sense of time anymore. Poverty reduction project or programs were very popular. Everybody was talking about poverty reduction plans. Every country developed one. Don't know what happened to them. This is what I mean by country doing things inside first before talking about fighting the EU or becoming whatever they want to become. Every country in Africa developed these things. They were very popular. Very few countries have implemented them to the point to say this is the result just like NAPAD like everything else. It sounds like slogan 10 years later. For African Union, I think you are desiré. I think we met at the African Union about five years ago. So the question I ask for any institution if this institution did not exist, if it disappeared, what difference does it make to the average person? And I think if the EU disappeared tomorrow, it would make no difference to anybody who was in Bobodilaso or somebody's in Tumbuktu or somebody's in Ituri. That's how far removed it is for everyday people. I just don't think it added any extra value. Particularly, the people cannot, the state cannot police one another at that level. At the regional level, Obasan Joe, back in the day, can say we're coming to Sierra Leone because they have their arrangement within union. It's easy to police each other in the neighborhood as opposed to trying to go further up to talk about what's happening in Gabon. Just to me, it's outlived its usefulness now. Maybe the founding fathers, you talked about 1963, had a different vision and they subscribed to you that they actually had a different vision. If they were to come back, they would say, this is not what we infusion. Thank you. Thank you so much. And with that, we've come to the end of our panel. I think it's been a fabulous discussion outlining the different points from integration to ensuring that there's a connection between citizens and these governing bodies to ensuring that there's proper governance as well that will take propel Africa forward for its path in the future. But underlining all of this is the point around African agency. There's innovations and ideas out there and reform that's possible. But it can only be actualized when we work together in the way that the panel has described. So I hope you all have listened well to this blueprint and just a round of applause and thank you for our first session today.