 Good morning and welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 28th of September and this quick preview of the week beginning the 1st of October before we look ahead at the events for next week. Let's have a quick look back at the last few days, few weeks, few months because coming as we do or coming as we are to the end of the week, the end of the month and end of the quarter Equity markets have by and large borne up fairly well, we've seen record highs in US markets we've seen a decent rebound off the lows of the month for European markets and while we look set to post a positive month as far as the quarter is concerned it's been a fairly neutral one despite a plethora of factors that could in the slightly longer term contrive to send markets lower Concerns about trade, they are still very much front and centre we also got concerns about the Italian budget which is starting to push Italian bond yields up and the euro lower and we've come off the back of largely expected US rate rise, the third one this year and the constructive ambiguity I think of the Fed with respect to the glide path for future US rate rises has prompted a little bit of divergence between US bond yields and the direction of the US dollar we can see that really I think borne out by this chart of the dollar index where we've managed to by and large hold above that very key support level of around about 9380 seen a decent rebound in the dollar but we've seen US yields slide back from the highs of earlier this year and the level that I'm particularly looking at with respect to US 10 year treasuries is 3.12% which is the highs that we saw earlier this year with we have thus far not been able to overcome that significant resistance level on the US 10 year so what are we looking for going forward certainly we've seen the US dollar start to make gains as can be seen from that dollar index chart and I think the ambiguity around Jerome Powell's comments that the FOMC having any evidence of significant inflationary pressure has helped push yields lower even if by the same token we've seen the dollar index rebound off a significant support level but I think one of the reasons behind that rebound in the dollar index has been concerns I think about the glide path for of Italian politics given that the new Italian government has managed to agree a budget of 2.4% which pretty much busts Brussels guidelines with respect to the level of the budget that they wanted the Italian government to implement looking forward to next week I think the key economic indicators that I will be keeping an eye on are once again to do with the US economy we've got non-farm payrolls for September we've also got the Canada jobs report there's I think significant speculation that the Bank of Canada could well raise rates in October following on from the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates this week to 2.25% on the upper bound for the Fed funds rate we've also got an RBA rate decision we've got manufacturing and services PMIs for September there are concerns about a slowdown in global growth certainly the WTO has warned about that by downgrading their estimates for global growth this year so will the glide path for economic data, manufacturing and services PMI reflect those concerns we've also got an IPO coming out next week which I'm particularly excited about it's Aston Martin and which we will be covering here at CMC I've posted a commentary piece on the news and analysis section of the website where you can read my thoughts on that but before we get started on that let's look at the German DAX and we can see the German DAX here still within the downtrend that it's been in from the June highs looking a little bit overbought looking a little bit softer day on the back of the Italian story significant resistance through these highs just below that 12,500 level so looking around about 12,450 if we are able to push back above there then we potentially could be looking at the 200 day moving average but certainly in the context of the overall direction for equity markets we are still very much in the downtrend that we've been in for the past few months looking at Eurodollar it's a similar sort of story that we've been in since May we're in a range with the top of that range is around about 117.5 the bottom of that range is around about 115 the key pivot level for me is on this 50 day moving average around about 116 but certainly I think in the context of all the concerns about Italian politics I think the line of least resistance here is for us to remain in the range that we've been in for the past few months and head back towards the bottom of that range the likelihood is that US data is expected to remain fairly resilient we've got non-farm payrolls on Friday we will be covering that live at 115 and I think once again the focus will be on US wages we saw a big jump to 2.9% for August wages expectations are for that to soften a little bit to 2.8 but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if we headed back up towards 3% which would be the highest levels this year and the highest levels since 2015 the unemployment rate is expected to stay around about 3.8% and the headline payrolls number is expected to come in at 188% the Canada jobs report is exactly the same time and at the last jobs report in Canada we saw a big drop in part-time jobs of 92,000 while only seeing a 40.4000 rise in full-time employment this was a big swing from the July report which was much more positive and prompted the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates for the fourth time in two years so I think this Canada jobs report could give us a good indication as to whether or not the Bank of Canada will raise rates in reaction to the phase decision to push rates up and raise rates for the fifth time in the last two years I think the September report really does need to be a positive one to rubber stamp a fifth Canadian rate rise and NAFTA concerns notwithstanding there are still an overhang for the market but they haven't been as much of an overhang as I thought they would be we've also got the RBA rate decision the RBA left rates unchanged at 1.5% for the 25th month in a row at the last meeting I'm not expecting to see any change there the Aussie continues to remain under pressure on the back of a stronger dollar I would not expect the downtrend that we've been in for the Aussie dollar to change we've rebounded off this really long-term downtrend line that we've been in since the beginning of the year we did have a little bit of a flirtation back above 73 we weren't able to sustain that that keeps the pressure on the downside with solid support around about 72 cents so certainly keep an eye on the Aussie dollar there Manufacturing and Services PMIs for September big week for this global across the board recent data showing that manufacturing has slowed considerably from the beginning of the year in France in particular we've seen evidence of a sharply slowing economic activity while the latest Chinese PMIs have also been on the weak side so I think in that context does that direction of travel continue to be a concern going forward last but not least we've also got a couple of earnings announcements first-half earnings for Tescos and Ted Baker but the headline I think for me on Wednesday on the 3rd of October is the Aston Martin IPO looks set to begin trading with evaluation of around about 5 billion pounds which puts the shares around about £17.50 to £22.50 it's likely to be over subscribed so certainly could see some very interesting trading action around that so that's it for this week thanks very much for listening it's Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets