 Welcome back. It's still the breakfast and plus TV Africa. And now to our first major conversation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its fifth day with no end in sight. So a conflict that has seen a death toll of at least 198 with over 1,000 wounded. Yesterday, President Vladimir Putin of Russia ordered his nuclear forces to be on high alert, even as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claimed that Russia or Ukraine and Russia would conduct the first diplomatic talks since the Kremlin launched invasion with delegations from both countries meeting at the Ukrainian border with Belarus. The Russians, however, are not being clear about this. Putin had earlier warned of, quote, severe consequences of foreign countries interfered in the Russia-Ukraine crisis on Thursday. Putin invaded Russia or Ukraine rather. It's neighbor to the southwest, heightening the tension between the two countries, which is said to date back to 2014. Meanwhile, Russia has been hit with several sanctions amid the invasion, including an announcement by the United States on sweeping financial sanctions and stringent export controls that will have profound impact on Russia's economy, financial system, and access to cutting-edge technology. That's what the Americans called it. Now, the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, and Canada on Saturday also agreed to remove selected Russian banks from the Swift International Payment System, which is a very important payment system as far as world finance is concerned. Now, let's look at the implications of all that has happened since Thursday with our guest on the breakfast this morning, Professor Bola Akinterua is a former director general of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs. Professor, good morning to you, and thanks for joining us. Good morning. Thank you for having me. All right, let's start off with your thoughts on this invasion. Do you agree with those who call it an invasion, and do you agree with those who say the West is to blame for Russia and Vladimir Putin taking this action to go into Ukraine? I believe the two schools of thought are correct. Those who blame the Westerners, the NATO countries, are correct. And those who blame the Russians are not wrong for a very simple reason. First of all, the agreement reached with the Russians along with the NATO countries is that NATO influence will not in any way, not an inch, the way to put them, of NATO influence will be extended to the countries that emerged following restructuring and openness in Russia, that is following Perespreka and Glaswitz. That was the understanding. It was so clear. They made the Americans and their allies made the Russians to understand that they would not bring NATO influence near any of the satellite countries of Russia. But you discover that in 1996, a decision was taken, contrary to the agreement, to pave way for the admission of some European countries, Hungary, Czech, Poland. They did. In fact, more than that, it were 14 countries under consideration for NATO membership. So in this case, when you reached an agreement and you are now having an inhibition of whatever kind, who is to blame? It can be NATO countries for not faithfulness with the agreement, sanctity of agreement. Principle of Patasun Sebanda, you have not respected that. But the same is true also for Russia. The 1994 Budapest memorandum provides that the territorial integrity of Ukraine will be maintained. But recon has it that in 2014, Russia, for instance, stated and updated the annexation and effective annexation of Crimea. That one also negates the agreement reached. Russia signed a particular 1994 Budapest memorandum. So why wouldn't you comply with that? But when you put all this together, you discover that it is only a living human being that can talk about security, that can engage in normal activities. The Russians are more concerned that, look, Americans are not trustworthy because they have argued, and that's the summary of the whole exercise. They say that the Russians have mistakenly trusted the American words too much, put it in good, too much. And the Americans have not taken advantage of that. So as of today, they don't trust the Americans for anything. And they are now saying that the security of the Russians has become a desiderate. So in this case, who is to blame in this case? Nobody can blame Russia for seeking to ensure its own national security. And if the Americans, the allies too, they want to ensure that Russia does not take them unawares. And they now want to put their defense line to the nearest country to Russia. Are you going to blame them? This is international politics. And the conduct and management of international politics explains the extent to which you can survive. OK, but let's see how this pans out. So the situation where Russia and Ukraine saying they're ready to have this talks. But right now, Russia, Ukraine is saying they would like to meet in Poland. They would like to meet in Hungary or Turkey. And these are NATO countries. How do you see this playing out? Do you see Russia having this talks in these places that they have mentioned? It all depends on the strategy calculations and which of them you want to take into recognition. Now, for Poland and all these countries to have been sending assistance to Ukraine, please. There is a principle in international law of mediation. According to which, when you are a mediator, you must not have partisan interests. If you have partisan interests, the likelihood of you being accepted as a mediator will no longer be there. So the mere fact that Poland is on record to have been aiding Ukraine, there's no way the Russians can easily accept. It's not thinkable. True of the other countries, and whether the Westerners will want to agree to a venue of meeting, say like Belarus, which is a supporter of the Russian position, it is not also likely that the Westerners will accept. So what is most likely in this case may be to have a United Nations neutral framework. And in this particular case, the same United Nations may still have the problems because both Russia and the United States are back to power within countries. So it depends on the possibility of having a mediator of international integrity, regardless of where he has. The value will not be the issue. But the critical problem to address will be the personality, the character, the integrity of the international mediator. All right, let's look at the latest order by Vladimir Putin, ordering the nation's strategic deterrence forces or mechanism to be put on a let. And we're talking about the nuclear warheads. I think the Americans refer to it as Satan too. Why is this, for those who are wondering, and should we be afraid that Putin might press that button and release a nuclear bomb on the West or the entire world? Why should anybody be afraid? The major problem the world is presently confronted with is the fact that, unlike in the past, when people were afraid, people were threatened about nuclear accidents. Today, nobody is afraid at all. So whether it is at the level of Russia, whether it is at the level of the natural countries, any strategic miscalculation can prompt anyone to use nuclear weapons. Please, it is important to draw attention to the major dynamics of the use of atomic weapons against Japan, the use of what they call little man. That is Hiroshima, the Fatma, and that is another subject. Why did the United States use that? Japan did not know. Japan was not aware that Americans have developed atomic weapons. They decided to attack US Pearl Harbor in the belief, in the calculation that if the maritime power, sea power of the United States is destroyed, the United States will not be in a position to enter into the Second World War on the side of the Allies and that it will take six months, at least, before they can reconstitute, before they can repair, before they can refurbish the vessels. But they miscalculated. So what happened was that the United States now sat down. They had a meeting. Mogan Town by that time was one who suggested to say, look, we didn't enter any war. We are not yet in war. This is a non-provoked aggression. So what will it be? They now said, let us use what we have. Let us test this atomic weapon. They only wanted to test it to see. Now they sent the little man, August 6th, to Japan. The radio activity first was terrible. While the MPRO, by that particular time, was still holding meetings with his executive, looking, examining, investigating the implications, they fixed their meeting to the next day to say they will continue. But the fact man was now sent again, the fact man. It's not a way now that the air was completely de-oxygenated. It's not a way that people are dying thousands. And then the Japanese had to withdraw unconditionally. And the Japanese were brought to their knees. Please, they provoked America. So when you look at how the use of atomic weapons came into being, it will not be far-fetched. It will not be difficult for you to know that, look. If you push Russia, for instance, to the world, and the Russians will need now to defend themselves, anything can be used. And that is the bitter truth. So if you are now saying, why are they now talking about the use of nuclear weapons? It is simply because they are preparing for the worst. And the worst can always happen. So this is a time where a combination of strategic diplomatic interventions will be required. All right, let's also talk about some of the impacts of this conflict. Right now in Nigeria, we hear reports that due to this war that's experienced in Russia and Ukraine, we may further have a prolonged scarcity of petrol. I mean, fuel scarcity might just continue because the refined products coming into the country from this region may actually face the delay. And some people are saying now ships are actually avoiding the black and the Mediterranean sea. And that's a lot. So apart from this, that we might experience in Nigeria, are there other impacts, global impact or impacts that we can feel in Nigeria and in Africa of this conflict that's going on? The most important implication for me is the fact that the Russian-Ukrainian impregnation will advance, will serve as a catalytic agent for progress in Nigeria. Nigeria is on record to have always done best to make progress when Nigeria is faced with problems, when they are in difficulty. You see, the cerebrum of Nigerians worked during difficult times. They become more ingenious. They come with new solutions, new approaches. But by the time, during this time, when things are normal, nobody cares about development and all those things. So when there is no fuel, petroleum, or there is for the scarcity, Nigerians will come certainly with new ideas of how to better secure the whole world. Not even Nigeria is the first point. In terms of global implications, we know quite well that for Europe, they depend to the extent of about 25% of gas supply from Russia. The pipe passed through Ukraine. Ukraine can easily disrupt the supply of gas to Europe in order to punish Russia. But European countries too, countries that are supporting Ukraine now, if you punish Russia and European countries will also suffer from that, that policy of disruption will amount to nothingness. In this case, what will happen is that Nigeria, being a country with a greater gas deposit result, may compare the European countries to discuss with Nigeria how to advance, how to take advantage, how to get Nigeria to increase or to begin the export of gas to Europe. It's a matter of survival. European countries cannot survive during cold weather. They need this thing to heat, to do all that. So this one can be advantageous to Nigeria. Another dimension is this. You see, implication is very serious one. Of the 7,000 Nigerians believed to be residing, living in Ukraine, legally. Legally. The 7,000 estimate is based on those who are registered. Many people may be living irregularly in Ukraine. But of the 7,000, 6,000 of them are registered students in tertiary institutions. 6,000. Now with this war, with this invasion, with this aggression, or with this liberalization, give it anything you want, depending on the school of thought to which you belong. That we disrupt the education of the 6,000 Nigerians there. Because now the schools have told all students not to come to school. Many of them are in their final years. Now what will happen? We have to ward the beginning of which we do know, the outcome of which we cannot easily predict. What happens to all the students? It's not like they say that the Asus strike in Nigeria has been disrupted. But it's a more stereo-disruptive. The students will suffer. And most unfortunately, the Nigerian government is not making concrete efforts to assure the protection of Nigerians there. OK, so Prof, Prof, let's stick on that point you made now. And take your thoughts on what the Nigerian Foreign Affairs Minister, Geoffrey Yoma, has been putting out as a statement saying that he spoke on the phone with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dimitro Kuleba, expressing his sympathy for what's going on in Ukraine, but also trying to find out or expressing concern at the news that Ukrainian border guards are hindering the exit of Nigerian citizens. But he says that the Ukrainian foreign minister has said that the Ukrainian border guards have been instructed to allow all foreigners leave. And he promised to investigate and revet quickly. He says, this is Nigeria's Foreign Affairs Minister now speaking, saying that the Foreign Affairs Minister of Ukraine revetted to say, quote, it's official. No restrictions for foreign nationals to leave the country exist. The problem is a result of chaos on the border and checkpoints leading to the end of quote. Of course, we are aware of the order by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky for males 18 and above not to be allowed to leave the country 18 to 60 years. So this is what Geoffrey Yemba, Nigeria's Foreign Minister continue to say by saying, I'm personally coordinating with our missions in Ukraine, Poland, Russia, Romania, and Hungary to ensure we get our citizens out of Ukraine and bring back to Nigeria those ready to return while supporting those who are remaining in Ukraine. So what's your own view of this latest move by the Nigerian government? Well, the fundamental difference between a passport and a visa is not far-fetched. Passport is a recommendation, is an appeal, is a permission given to the holder to travel out. So why, for instance, the Ukrainian government says all the Ukrainian borders are widely open. Whoever wants to go out can go out. That's the level of passport. The passport to travel out. But having a passport to travel out cannot be synonymous or be equivalent to visa. And even when you have visa, well-stand on your passport, you still have the message of the immigration, the security of visas at the border coast to allow you in. That's the level of visa. Yes. Yeah, Professor, sorry to interrupt you, sir. But the Nigerian embassy in Ukraine, and I think if not the embassy in Ukraine, the Foreign Affairs Ministry had already said that the authorities in Hungary are willing to allow foreign nationals with a Ukrainian visa, three months' visa in Ukraine, in Hungary. So if you can cross the border into the Hungry Poland, as long as you have a Ukrainian visa and you have your nation's passport, it's valid for three months. And he also says that just to chip this in, that our missions, just Nigerian missions, have been directed to send staff and buses to the border points in their respective countries. These are quickly Ukraine, Poland, Russia, Romania, and Hungary to transport Nigerian citizens, basically. I am very much aware of the funds that you are giving me. I monitor and I do analysis chronologically as it is. When I'm talking about visa, please. Initially, many Nigerians were at the border of Poland. It got to a point that Poland now decided that, look, we cannot allow foreigners, Nigerians to come under these circumstances. That was initially. That was why Nigerians complained bitterly to say that they are having challenges at the border, even with Poland. They are, it's well reported. So I am only trying to say that you can have passport to travel out, but we need to have a visa-free entry. You must have an entry that does not go along with challenges. That's the point I'm trying to make there. The mere fact that we have our embassies that posted letters now saying they have designated different officers for them to come, get to some countries through different course of entry. I am aware, we read all this, but I am only trying to draw your attention to the fact that, look, please, we are told that you make haste not slowly. You don't make haste slowly. The way the foreign minister of Nigeria is trying to do. Not when people have been embarrassed and are being challenged here and there. Many Nigerians are hiding in the metros on the ground trains to see it. So what the issue is, my own evaluation of what the government of Nigeria is not trying to do is that it is unnecessarily too late. We need to have preventive tactic measures to protect Nigerians during crisis, during emergencies, and so on and so forth. It's not what is foreign policy that is always reactive. What is it? What are they doing? You can now see, for instance, National Assembly said they will be going to Ukraine to evacuate when the government had already banned commercial airflares. The airspace already had been made inaccessible. That is how we behave in Nigeria. It's always fire-piquing. So please, if you are not saying people can travel, can go by route, et cetera, many people have been Nigerians. They will never report. I wouldn't be surprised in the next mail, press statement that the minister will be making. They will say, no Nigerian has been affected. That's our style. So please, if Nigerians are able to quickly escape, we should thank some countries that have voluntarily accepted to facilitate those countries that have said, well, if you are able to identify yourself with your national passport, they will give you a refuge, a place. That one is good enough. But let me tell you, this is just the beginning of the problem. All right, Professor Akin Teriwa. Let's also look at this issue, which you have also attested to the fact that some Nigerians, and others, they're probably a black skin color issue, have been discriminated like you have mentioned. They have been discriminated and have not been allowed. We saw a video of Nigerians not being allowed to that train. Now, what is the essence of globalization then? Where is the argument for globalization that talks about peace and global prosperity at this point in time? It is a conflict situation. Should nations like this be reacting this way at this point in time? Should skin be a determining factor, or should we be talking about global peace and prosperity? You see, the problem with your question is that you are listening very logically. You have a humanitarian plunge in your business. That's the problem with it. In international religions, international politics does not follow that type of logic. It does not. The truth is simply that, look, they preach the salmon, the epistle of sovereign equality. They preach the salmon of globalization. They preach the salmon of international peace and security. But please, bond closeness wants to lose. If you want peace, prepare for war. Secondly, the manufacturers of war weapons, manufacturers of nuclear weapons, if Nigeria part of them, if Congo part of them, is Ethiopia part of them, they are the major nuclear-wielding powers. They call them the P5, even security council. So when you talk about globalization, what is globalization? Globalization is a new instrument for the colonization. It emphasizes technology, ICT, et cetera. So now, if you are using the old style of colonization, now, internet, what is it about? It's good for everybody. But it is a major instrument of international control, whether you like it or not. Why is China against the location, the initiative of the US? Internet headquarters is in California in America. If you travel to China today with your telephone and internet, this Western world, automatically they will be erased at the point of entry at the airport channel. It will be replaced with Chinese model. Why? So please, to answer directly the question, it is not good enough. It is not fair. If it is unjust for somebody to be in a dangerous situation, to be threatened, and then you discriminate against them, and would now be saying, we are in the same world. Please, we are not in the same world. Discrimination is still a major pillar of international politics. You take about COVID-19 vaccines. They now say, look, it's nationalism. They want to give you what they do not need anymore. It is on record that, for instance, at the point in time when they were developing the vaccine in the US, is it not on record that the American government said, look, they should not give the type of vaccines made for the American citizens. They would say they should prepare special vaccines for all other countries. So what are you now telling me? So it's survival of the fittest. You are to determine to play your politics in such a way that your own self-interest is giving particular attention. And that is what is happening. Don't blame people who refuse to discriminate against us. You should learn to discriminate against them. I see interesting, very interesting analysis from you and very much appreciated. Only time will tell, Prof, if the sanctions against Russia by the United States, the EU as well and other countries like Japan will work. But it's been a pleasure having you, sir, on the program this morning. Professor Paula Akin Teriwa is a former director general of the Nigerian Institute of International First. Thank you so much for your time, sir. Thank you for giving me the means to learn. We hope to have you soon again. We are learning from you and we appreciate that. Thank you for coming. It's time to move on. Yeah, definitely time to move on. And when we return, we'll be looking at the second conversation, the fact that finally the Electoral Act Amendment Bill has been signed into law by President Mohammed the Buhari. What does this hold for us as a democracy continue to evolve? And what is the hope for the 2023 elections? Please stay with us.