 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. It is not the weekend yet for me, it is Friday. It's markets closed about 45 minutes ago and the only reason why I'm doing this update now and the only reason I was getting all my work done after this another week of craziness and just nuts. Just like any other dad, it is weekend time. Weekends mean a thousand different games. I'm pretty confident to say between my daughter and my son, we have at least three soccer games and at least four or five basketball games this weekend. So like every other dad and mom, I am doing my work now. So again, I guess we will rest when we're dead. So let's talk about the market, right? Again, I recorded a video yesterday. Usually I don't record the weekend. I don't record it with Thursday videos. You take a rest that night, but I didn't have a chance to record one on Wednesday. So we talked about the ramifications of FedEx. Definitely took some toll out of the market today. If you look at the scoreboard today, again, nothing that really stands out. That was down 0.5% and NASDAQ lost less than 1% and the S&P lost about 0.75%. But if you do look at the weekly totals, they're pretty eye-popping at the S&P down 5%, the NASDAQ down 5.5%, and obviously it stood out. The big deal about this week was the bulls were feeling very, very good about themselves. You know, Monday they reclaimed the 50-day moving average, excuse me, Friday they reclaimed the 50-day moving average. They followed through on Monday and then we came through the CPI. And it was a hotter than expected. Reading and all of a sudden ish hit the fan, as I would like to say, in the nicest way possible. And slowly but surely everything that the bulls worked so hard for. And again, this was a pretty impressive run going back into last week. We went from 290 to 311 on the Q's. It's a very, very big move in a 5-day interval. And the theory was before the CPI even came out, what was it too far too fast, right? Too much too fast. You got 20 points in four days. Even the most aggressive bull on the street says, well, wait a minute, you can't really extend a rally without a little bit of a pregnant pause. And what I thought was going to be a pregnant pause because we go through so many of these economic readings on a daily basis, on a weekly basis. Like, well, why is this CPI more important than anything else? And then yada, yada, yada, you got a 1200-point move on Tuesday on the Dow. And really, you know, really things started getting very aggressive. Wednesday, they rested. Yesterday, they resumed the selling. And today, obviously with the catalyst of Federal Express guiding lower took down a lot of things with it just because, again, it demonstrated, you know, kind of the consumer, right? The consumer and the lack of ability to continue to stimulate the economy one house all the time. So here we are, right? And the most important part is where, you know, what we are going to do in the future. Again, the week is over. Whether you win or lose the draw, it doesn't make a difference. We're here now. It doesn't make a difference how we got here. And you can make this whole argument, well, why was the PPI so much of a non-event on Wednesday as much as the CPI on Tuesday? And my answer is I have no idea. And this is why this aggressive move caught a lot of people off guard. But now we're here and you can't do anything about the past. And the most important part is now what's going to happen next? So look, for the bulls to start getting back into healthy mode. And again, I come to you, if you're watching this video, I come to you with a very unbiased opinion. I trade both sides of the market. It doesn't make a difference to us which way the market goes. It's all about levels. So we lost the 50 day. And what was impressive about this move, you watch the video on Wednesday, I believe, or Tuesday night, excuse me. You saw that this candle really took out four or five days worth of buying, which was very, very impressive. And then we lost complete control and we just came right shy of testing the bottom Bollinger Band on the daily. For the bulls to get going, I really think we need to close above these two candles here, which is $297. Considering that we are at $289, we have a lot of work to do. The one thing that we talk about is trends, they never go straight up and straight down. So for example, when we reclaimed the 50 day moving average here, we had a really nice good one month acceleration to the upside. But as you can see, in between those up sessions, we had a lot of days that we're putting down. Same thing when the market goes down. You'll have sessions, you have the overall trend going down and you'll have updates that's going to reverse. So when you look at charts going into tomorrow or going into Monday session, you're going to see a lot of beat up charts, right? You're going to see a lot of names that we talked about throughout the week completely got beaten down this week. You know, tech sector got smashed, Microsoft, again, just victim before the turnaround today in the video. I mean, look at the move from the 50 day moving average. I forget what it came here. NVIDIA over the last couple of months has gone from this 167 level all the way down to this 126 level. I mean, just got destroyed this week, completely destroyed a little bit of a dead cat bounce today. Amazon that we talked about yesterday lost every single macro area. We talked about that 23 area here last night in the video went all the way down to 20. But the point is, every stock, no matter how beaten up they are, and there's a lot of beaten up names, they're going to have snapback days, right? The hardest days to trade is a counter trend to what's going on here. So for example, right now, the last three, four days, we've been trending lower because we lost the 50 day moving average. If you have an update on Monday, let's say for example, on Monday, it's going to be very tough to turn around and go, Amazon is along. Well, based on what? Right? Based on what? Apple is along. Well, based on what? Again, we talked about Apple yesterday lost a lot of levels traded all the way down to that 48 level we discussed last night. So my point was, if you're going to trade a market, let's just say the market starts to bounce on Monday. The best bet is to look for charts that are actually uptrending, right? And when you get an environment like this that is really getting beaten up, it's tough. It's like finding a needle in a haystack, but they're out there, right? They're absolutely out there. So for every stock that's a dead cat bounce, because we don't know how big a dead cat bounce lasts, right? Maybe it lasts for 50 cents. Maybe it lasts for three days. The point is we're guessing, right? We're guessing the only way a dead cat bounce is valid. If the stock takes out the previous days high and starts to build those levels. So assuming that's not going to happen on an average dead cat bounce day, right? We have to be kind of prepared for the names that potentially could bounce if the market is strong, but based on the levels that it's taking out to the upside. So let's look at some names, right? Solar's name, the solar's have been very strong. That's definitely one group that absolutely did not get the memo that the market was weak. There was any type of downturn and I get it. There's some sort of news attached to it. I get all that, right? It doesn't make a difference how they're strong, why they're strong. The point is they're strong and the point is if they start building up levels, especially at the top of the range here, they're going to continue the rally. So if there is a strong push, whether it's Monday, Tuesday, whatever the case may be, you want to be in a strong like ENPH above the level, like a name like First Solar as well, very, very strong as well. If First Solar starts taking out this 36.5, 37 level, that means it will take out two, three days worth of selling and start resuming their uptrend. The last thing you want to do is start picking bottoms of dead stocks, right? If the market rallies, of course, Microsoft probably will rally, but the point is it's dead, right? It's dead. It's literally dead. It would need to reclaim two, three days worth of selling to get a really strong upward channel to start confirming. So we have to start looking again at stronger names. Tesla has been an absolute monster. I apologize, my poodle is barking in the background. Tesla has been an absolute monster, right? There's been no stronger name in the tech space. We'll get to Netflix in a second. There's been no stronger name in the tech space than Tesla for the last three weeks, right? I think it's pretty, pretty obvious. They tried to sell this thing off several times. I was watching this thing today to the downside. They just wouldn't crack this thing to the downside. And the whole point is whatever doesn't go down, let's go up. But the point is if everything starts trending lower, like I said in the last night's video, no matter how strong the stock is, it's not going to be strong if the whole, right? If the whole. Not some of the parts, but if the whole start coming in. But again, if we're preparing for a potential dead cat bounce, whether it's Monday or Tuesday, you want to start looking at Tesla, right? Tesla is very, very strong. It's a hop step and a throw away from the top of this channel here. And the one thing that we continuously know about Tesla, we've been trading Tesla throughout the years, once this train starts going, whether it's to the long side or to the short side, it really, really goes. And you don't need to start worrying about, you know, start worrying about giga plans or this shmuck, that shmuck recalls. These things are going to go, right? And the one thing with Tesla is it has a mind of its own, it has a cold following its own. And when this thing goes, it really goes very, very aggressive. So this is obviously a name we want to watch if there is a dead cat bounce going to this week. Look at Netflix, right? I've been saying this thing for years, for years and years and years. It still hasn't played out, right? If you're like me, and again, I have a very, very busy dad lifestyle, and I mean by that, I'm constantly either at practices or at games or practices dang games or vice versa. I go on Netflix, no joke, at least twice a day. That's not even an exaggeration. Like I love Netflix. I love the content. I love the old movies that we watched. I love the originals. Again, I started watching Narcos again for I think the sixth time. I just, I love it. So the point of Netflix is I've always maintained the idea is I don't understand how Netflix for the short term or even long term will be by itself. I've always had this opinion that I think the stock is just set up so perfectly to either go private or one of these media companies to buy it, whether it's Apple, the logical choice of the streaming, right? You got Apple that has that whole Apple TV thing going on. You got Amazon that has Amazon Prime. And by the way, how great was football yesterday on Amazon Prime, right? So Amazon is a likely suitor. You got all these cable companies. You got Comcast. You got Cablevision. You got CBS. You got MGM. So this is one of these stocks that just really primed, right? Really primed for just to get taken over or just go private, whatever the case may be. And the funny thing is for the last couple of days, it's kind of been trading like that. Obviously, nobody knows anything. Everybody's just speculating. But look how the stock has been trading, right? Like, yes, two days ago, it was up 16. Today, when the market was down, this damn thing was strong as hell. Look at the top of this channel here. Again, we're trying to focus on the names if there is a dead cap balance one of these days, Monday or Tuesday, right? So if Netflix starts building, right? It starts building atop of this channel here. Why can't this thing start going, right? We saw some pretty aggressive call buying on Netflix this week. We even saw going, I think it was the 2023 leap, somebody bought 400s this week. So again, we're just speculating, right? We're just talking out loud. Nobody's listening to our conversation here. We're just brainstorming. But the point is it's acting very, very well. So whether it's acting well on merit, on news, on technicals, whatever the case may be, again, when you're looking for a market to bounce, and we do have one of these strong days, we want to look at the stronger names. And again, Netflix will definitely be on my list for next week. Tesla, again, I always look at it for both sides of the market. But again, I want to definitely, definitely watch Tesla. These solar names continue to be really good. And again, you don't need many names, right? Between Tesla, between Tesla and Netflix and EMPH, you don't need a lot. You just need one. And that's the whole point. There's a lot of stocks that look like crap as well, right? Definitely look as crap. If you look at Shopify, we talked about Shopify yesterday. And I said to myself, well, why is it Shopify down more? It is on the Amazon news. First close below the 10-day moving average. And then I'm sorry, I don't want to offend anybody. But look at some of these meme names, right? You got AMC. This is the first close I tweeted about right before I left for the day. This 9-20 area was going to be super-duper important. First close below 9-20, as you can see where the measure potential is. Look at names like AI, right? And this is what we started talking about in the webinar about names that had crappy earnings that are just going sideways. And I've always maintained the fact that when a stock blows up on earnings, you can see a nice little blob on earnings here. It's going sideways, not because the sellers, the buyers, the sellers are tired. The sellers are just resting, right? And if this thing starts building below this bottom channel here, this could be one of those earnings plays that just kind of drifts for multiple days or even multiple weeks. Same with a name like OKTA, right? Same thing as well. Like how tight this thing is coming on. So look, we're definitely prepared for both sides of the market, right? The way the market is trading, we're still in a sell-bias environment. But obviously, again, nothing goes straight down. And you definitely, definitely want to be prepared from both sides of the market. So again, when you're doing your research this weekend, and again, especially if you're new traders, I don't care if you're a part-time trader. You can't treat this. You can't treat this as a part-time business. You still have to put in full-time research, even if you're a part-time trader. If you are a new trader, you have to do whatever it takes, how many manpower's possible to extend your shelf life. And the most important part of extending your shelf life is doing your research, is back-testing till you're blue in the face, whatever your process is. It doesn't make a difference. You don't need to trade pivots, right? You could trade whatever you want, however you want. It doesn't make a difference how you put stakes in the freezer. But the most important part is staying in business enough to figure out how, right? And the longer you trade, the longer you are extending your shelf life and the longer you're extending your shelf life, eventually that light-bulb moment is going to happen. My light-bulb moment, unfortunately, was like 12 years into my journey. Again, if somebody told me when I first started, hey, you're going to have your ups and downs, your first 10, 12 years. You're going to go through the internet craze. You're going to go through 9-11. You're going to go through the mortgage crisis. And oh, by the way, you're finally probably going to start to get it about 10, 12 years later. I don't know if I would have made that commitment, right? But again, the most important part in the moral of the story is time will make you better. Like I said in the numerous times in the past, time will make you a better parent, a better friend, a better husband, a better wife, and definitely a better trader. Guys, God bless everybody. Stay happy. Stay healthy. Put a smile on your face. Only one life to live. Guess what? This is it. No Mulligans. Guys, have a great weekend. I will see you all on Monday.