 Okay, very good morning. It is Tuesday the 6th of July. I hope you're doing well in terms of debriefing I'm gonna run you through some of the major news from overnight and then an outlook for the day ahead But really wanted to start with a bit more of a top-level Assessment of things as they reside at the moment because in my mind there's been two real Major more top-level moves really initiated in the middle of last month Which is when we had that hawkish surprise from the FMC where we saw the dot plots move up Unexpectedly to two rate hikes in 2023 and some of the commentary around the inflation situation However, since that point and really non-farm payrolls on Friday, which we know was a fairly okay report But it kind of fitted within that narrative of Goldilocks scenario We saw bonds and equities appreciate the idea being that it's a good economic Development but not excellent enough that it's going to really shift the middle ground of what Powell and the rest of the Center kind of FMC are thinking in terms of the timing over Future tightening and so I think that really explains a lot of the moves that we've been seeing At the moment and definitely I'm going to cycle through the charts Technically first and then we'll go over some of the news stories like OPEC and the RBA meeting overnight and what UK Prime Minister Brons Johnson said yesterday on the lockdown easing, but gonna kick it off here and talk about the US dollar This is looking at the dollar index first I think it's important to then before we start launching into looking at euro dollar and cable on a slightly more narrow time frame This is looking on a daily chart for the Dixie and here you've got the peak of price activity in September of 2020 You've then got the retest of around that era in late March and the peak of where we saw just before then payrolls came out And obviously since payrolls what we have seen is generally a weakening trend in the greenback which has helped some Support for those major pairs with euro dollar and cable which of course had been under quite a bit of Persistent pressure and the ration out for that is well this dollar pop that you can see here This was the FMC and since that point and up until the release of payrolls the dollar had put in in fact It's best June that we'd seen in several months. So payrolls has been very significant here and in line though with some quite Strong technical levels and for one here you can see this trend line Came in with that payroll initial spike high pretty much perfectly for this about turn And what does that look like then in the major currency pairs? Well For one euro dollar now continues to push on up short-term here looking at a more intraday Viewpoint you can see then that previous low that we printed back on the 29th that era of resistance Going back to where we were Thursday and then yesterday has now been broken through this morning seeing a bit of a further Acceleration of that currency move As European players have come in then some of these technical levels short term are being breached on the upside So up to the R1 already in euro dollar and trading up about 50 pips already this morning You can see after that volatility that we have an initial payroll release We're now trading up a nearly a point from that area cable some people talking about Semi-assisted as well by the confirmation of the unlocking Confirmed by Boris Johnson last night of the final step on July 19th of the current lockdown in the UK Don't buy that too much Although potential another supportive variable in terms of direction perhaps Given the fact that a lot of what he said was very much expected So I don't think you could pin it as any type of surprise Dollar weakness definitely is the key metric here You can see this is looking at the last kind of nine or ten price Price movement over the last nine or ten sessions and we were on that persistent trend lower really up until the point of when that data point came out on Friday this was that payroll response with the dollar weakness. We've then break above This came very early yesterday and used as support then that previous trend line that was coming in and been fairly Respected as a channel over the last week or so and we've just managed to continue to push on up and during the age of pack session Bit of further continuation of dollar weakness helped support the pair And now again, we've also continued to trade higher up around 90 pips in fact at the moment for cable Just looking to reclaim the 139 handle having just on Friday traded more proximity to 137 handle So pretty decent turn around there and certainly has outperformed the euro on that recovery move for the time being When the currency moves to one thing that's been moving definitely in an inverse relationship to the dollar has been gold and Gold is definitely benefited from that story in terms of from when payrolls came out So the Asia pack session We've just seen a further extension of that in step with dollar weakness for gold And we just run up to test up the R2 on the daily pivot levels Which just looking horizontally here does bring in then the next peak of interest Which was that technical area of respect that we had back on the 17th Which coincides with around that level so bit of a further extension of that directional play Which was really initiated from the overnight session But again go back to where we were at the release of the payroll data This explains this volatility here, but as the dollars continues to drift south It's just lent support here for gold which on a slightly higher time frame Perhaps this makes a bit more sense This is looking at a daily chart for gold futures And you can see here the two phases of these moves as I've been describing the FMC inspired dollar Strength IE way on gold prices and then the payroll kind of initiating then Technically gold had already run into a bit of a zone of support You can see from these previous technical areas of both resistance and support at around the 54 to 60 level was quite key But then NFP just helping accelerate that recovery And now as I said as we push on up You can see where we're at at the moment and around this 1608 on the higher time frames Has also been an area of some interest as well from a technical perspective So it's just to see now on this latest phase of recovery how much further it can push on And that's likely going to be continued to be dictated by the dollar But already this morning going into the European open up Steady it still have a decent margin in the equity space obviously in the payments day holiday yesterday So as you would anticipate pretty sideways price action observed in the major indices And we'll await our friends across the pond to come back into market today Yeah, the S&P tells again a pretty supportive story here and certainly payrolls as you can see annotated on this chart Helping things even further to accelerate to all-time higher record levels So we've kind of thrashed out now near-term range as you can see from really 34 to 48 And would have continued to expect that to be respected till the moment till at least the US come in We've got the likes of the ISM Services PMI coming out this afternoon, so to be quite important as well But got this this trend line as well that I've been keeping an eye on so where that comes in with this range play And the pivots such as beneath should be quite interested to see if that just acts as an area of kind of support for price The NASDAQ looks very similar in that respect in terms of the consolidation of price at the moment at these elevated levels Having pushed up to record high Area on the chart here just gonna pinch it a little bit to look at the last Couple of sessions to bring in this trend channel And as you can see we are just respecting that range and that's to be expected in the electronic trade being very quiet given the Cash markets closed yesterday, but looking out for that to resume now back to normal as the US start to come back in again, technically keeping an eye on that downside 14674 was the load that we had yesterday morning and then on the upside 147 29 The either side of that that range pivot just below and then the bigger supporting areas might come in then We're still keeping on the trend line Which probably coincided around the pivot where prices at the moment as you can see here That trend bottom end of that trend channel being respected from the 21st and through the 1st and 2nd It's Thursday Friday of last week and again that late that NFP inspired rally that ensued thereafter has put us up to this this current period of consolidation But any pullback further not for the session today so much perhaps for the week still either around that 14 598 or 14600 is quite a key area there short term for the NASDAQ 100 Okay, well that kind of gives you an update of where we're at at the moment Just technically in the DAX one thing. I am keeping an arm as well again a trend line being respected from the 21st 30th and on Monday that has held up fairly nicely so far, so We've got pivot insight here, but technically I wouldn't see that as too relevant given the Pattern of price action over the previous few sessions. However, as we start to come down, that's an area I'll be keeping an eye on so around that s2 and that rising trend line you can see as Shown on the chart at the moment Oil prices then will lead us into the first story to talk about which of course is OPEC That's really dominated a lot of the news of late and as you can see here We've seen a big pop-in price yesterday and that came after Readd and Musker had pushed for that proposal of course to increase production by 400,000 miles a day each from August to December and to extend the OPEC plus supply deal agreed last year beyond it scheduled April 2022 end date But while the UAE Said that it supports increasing output Demanded that its own baseline production from which supply cuts are calculated factors in higher output capabilities And it is being reviewed before Agreeing to extending any type of deal So that's where we kind of reside at the moment as far as OPEC Is concerned people familiar with the UAE's position have said that Saudi and Russia needed more time to discuss Abadabi's position which remains unchanged at this present point in time Couple of things that I was reading about this last night as to Why is it that there's such tension at the moment between the UAE? There's a couple of different things one is on the production value side The UAE at the moment even at the current quota level. They kind of want to be pumping a little bit higher More up to 3.8 million than the 3.2 as currently being dictated to them as part of the deal Also, Abadabi has international companies as equity investors in its oil and gas field as reading last night the likes of BP Total there's Chinese and Indian oil firms as well based in the country specifically Which makes it quite unique to the UAE compared to some of the other OPEC nations And so the government is feeling the pressure at the moment in order to try and appease those foreign entities who have facilities within their country and then the other thing is the Friction that generally exists between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and largely emanating from the UAE withdrawing its military presence in Yemen Leaving Riyadh and mirrored in a costly war that directly threatens its security Which we've seen you know very often frequently in recent months and years where in Western Yemen those Houthi militants Attacking key facilities in the infrastructure particularly situated in the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia And so there's quite a lot of different angles here going on that are playing out and certainly It's always interesting with with OPEC and you know the basic rule of thumb is is that you know when oil as it was Not that long ago was training down at 35 Then everything just gets put aside and because everyone's feeling the pain of such a low price point Everyone collaborates and coordinates when price starts trading up 75 bucks, then people start to Push the envelope a little bit and try to make a better deal for themselves. So I don't think it's particularly unexpected Iraq's oil minister has said he hopes to witness a date within the next 10 days for another OPEC plus meeting We should be able to reach a deal that satisfies everyone So at the moment oil is trading still holding on to around a dollar and a half's gain On the daily chart, obviously this puts us up to levels that Really haven't been seen in a very long time three years in fact and Just gonna move my chart over here so you can see oil These were the levels that I had marked up from you know We've been looking at these charts for a long time on the briefing But you can see here the significance of where we're at at the moment You know forget that negative price point blip on the chart at the moment on the downside But this peak of price that we see we have seen back in 2018 You can see a breach above that is going to be very meaningful for price because we've not traded otherwise up that high going back until The last six years would be the last time we were training up at around an 80 dollar handle Or even longer that would take us back to around November of 2014 if we can really punch on from here My overall take for the time being is probably more one of I think the UAE are just seeing what they can push at this point And I think it's probably Sensible to look at the pact in two sides the actual production increase separate that from then the Duration of how long it's scheduled to go on for i.e. this push between It scheduled to end on April 22nd or to the end of next year Is what I'll be looking at for headlines I do kind of still feel like This is all part of a tactical negotiation for a number of these countries and particularly UAE for themselves at the moment And in the end a compromise will be met and I'm basing that assumption on the fact that that is normally the case and so If that does happen again the composition of that agreement is going to be quite key for price But given the fact that we're kind of priced in at the moment a failure of a deal Any type of deal being made might well see just a little bit of profit-taking from this initial pop That we've seen sustained from overnight and from yesterday in wci which trades up $1.50 still But remember those daily changes are a bit off given the lack of us closed yesterday For the holiday, so we're trading at 76 68 at the moment The other thing you probably read about last night Again, I don't think this is particularly surprising at all. So I'm a little bit Reluctant to really pin out performance and sterling on this but you know sterling has outperformed Euro dollar about two to one at the moment So I'm sure it is an added variable that certainly fits to the mix of what generally has been dollar weakness Which has been helping support those other currency pairs Boris Johnson announced plans to end social distancing and capacity limits at venues in England from July 19th So confirming a lot of those reports that we read at the weekend Face masks will remain voluntary in all settings and the government will no longer instructs people to work from home If you are interested in just seeing the full breakdown of some of this in more detail Here's a number of bullet points that really summarize the speech that I tweeted It's my handle here if you want to check that out for your own personal interest otherwise Aussie dollar is rallying a little bit here in the it seems to the European open That might be just worse just keeping a half an eye on at the moment In fact, I'm just bringing up the Aussie chart here now Because I was just having a look on the daily to see where we were because on the short term chart We've had a bit of volatility overnight and then we've had a bit of a run up here in the Aussie Going into the European open But remember that euro dollar break higher cable on the run That's just helped as well that that extension of dollar weakness which has helped the Aussie But overnight we did have the Rba meeting. I'm sorry. I'll look at the Aussie chart in a moment with you And what did they say? The Rba left its cash rate at a record low of 0.1 percent Which was very much as expected and they said it was likely to remain at that level until 2024 The bank retains those that april 2024 bond for its three-year yield target at 0.1 percent But again largely as expected and they did announce a third round of its quantitative easing Program albeit at a smaller size slightly than their previous Purchasing at four billion Aussie dollars per week from the previous five billion so A little bit of movement overnight But also again assisted by the softer dollar unless you can see here technically on the Aussie dollar chart Having appreciated here Again the catalyst definitely to me dollar led here the Aussie wreck meeting just adding just another Kind of news element in the mix But the big one was nfp because this is what initiated this turnaround Has continued to remain that way as the dollars remained on that pattern of weakness And on the daily chart we're just coming up and having a test around the 21 dma At the moment and if we're looking here technically That's up and around these range highs that we're seeing in late june Which going back was supportive areas that we saw some of the price activity in late march as well To be aware of in the Aussie currency final thing for me to mention then is about vaccines and I feel really bad for this girl. I'm sure she wouldn't have wanted this picture shared Pulling a face like that getting her ejection But nonetheless BioNTech Pfizer vaccine is seen as less effective in halting the spread of the delta variant Than that of the previous strains of coronavirus according to a preliminary study coming out of israel And their health ministry. They said data collected over the past month suggest the vaccine is 64 Effective of preventing infections among those who are fully inoculated Efficacy against previous strains of the virus were up, of course with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as much as 95 So against delta comes down to 64 percent. There's also still quite a bit of Conversation about delta plus specifically located in india and around one of their quite key states which houses then Mumbai That's still as well on my radar at the moment So I'll keep you updated with that with any further developments But as far as the calendar is concerned for today And you've got the construction PMIs coming out for the uk and eurozone Very rarely if ever a market mover, so I'd kind of brush that aside puts their attention on the zw Survey coming out at 10 o'clock from germany again for anyone new to markets The difference between iphone and zw iphone is companies Whereas zw is economists and analysts Assessment about economic conditions currently and forward-looking expectations over a six month horizon So as far as that is concerned yet germany still kind of tackling at the moment the Ongoing increase that we're seeing much as like in other areas like the uk and mainland europe of the new delta outbreak and so does that Mix a little bit and add a bit of uncertainty to the general state of reopening. So the top line level Headline is expected to decrease slightly but still remain fairly elevated And then going into this afternoon no major 130s out the u.s The focus will be on ism services PMI Which should show the sector is growing very strongly with increased business opportunities as the general u.s economy continues to go through that reopening phase So the number expected to remain fairly static from previous for june at 63.5 And then ECB's dacost speaking a bit later on this morning and the gwindos to follow up But no text expected there at eight and nine a.m. respectively and then fixed income auctions coming out of the debt management office in the uk and some supply Coming out of the german bundesbank as well this morning But that is it going to leave it there let you guys get on with the day and I'll see you in amp fi live community or feel free to drop me a comment If you have any questions if you're watching this on the youtube channel. All right. Take care guys. Have a good one