 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today we're getting you said for college football week number 10 and talking about the college football playoff rankings with Ben Stevens of Sports Grid getting us thoughts on both those things and what they mean for the betting market. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com. Ed, we talked a lot about Michigan, Michigan State last week and a game where Michigan seemed to outplay Michigan State. Michigan State got the big plays. They swung in their favor and they got the win there. What are your thoughts coming off of that big game? Yeah, it was a disappointing game for Michigan. I thought they played better. I think they're the better team slightly, but at the end of the day, the defense just couldn't get the stops they needed in the second half. I think it's that simple and I think we saw one of the best performances. We'll see out of Kade McNamara. I thought he had a really good game. I mean, obviously through the pick at the end, which wasn't helpful, but at some point in the first half, he was 10 for 12 and one of the incompletions was a drop. In general, we played pretty well. Michigan's defense couldn't do their part. It's interesting here in Ann Arbor because after the game, everyone wanted Harbaugh's head. Everyone wanted him fired again. It was like, they're 7-1, top 10 team, and you were all the people that didn't even want to watch any of the games this year at the beginning of the season. So I thought that was hilarious, but it does kind of point to a deeper... I think often coach and fan base can get at odds when someone's been there for too long or the expectations are just off. Think about Andy Reed in Philadelphia. So, yeah, so that's what's going on here in Ann Arbor. But as far as the game goes, yeah, I thought I thought it was pretty close. I think Michigan should have won a little biased in doing this job. I have kind of forsaken all team loyalties for the most part, except for Michigan. You can't avoid it here. And when Stanford's better, I would look for them too. Well, I think the interesting thing is we talked last week about how you said that Michigan was a team with a ceiling because of the quarterback play. And I want to have a Michigan State ceiling because I don't think anything they did in that game necessarily shifts that equation for them. Am I wrong in thinking that where we should still view Michigan State pretty similarly to what we did before? I think I was impressed with their offense. Thorne had a pretty good game. The receivers were very good. Walker is great. And so, yeah, I mean, what's the ceiling for that offense? I mean, they may be a really, really good elite offense. They clearly haven't shown that in some games, like against Indiana. Right. What they can do against a Purdue defense that my numbers really like. You know, I mean, we have, what, eight games on Thorne right now. That's not a ton. That's only slightly less than what we have on McNamara. So, yeah, I don't know. I mean, I haven't seen as much of Thorne, so I can't really, you know, kind of put the watching games perspective on it. But I don't think Michigan State's defense is that good. Yeah, I think we saw that. So, but, you know, there ain't no there, whatever, whatever, fourth in the college football playoff ranking. So they're they're clearly up there. Three teams and three teams in the Big Ten East are up there. And the playoff rankings, not all of them will end up in the college football playoff, obviously. So there's lots to be determined. And we'll be talking about that with Big Ten, Ben. Ben Stevens on for today to talk about week 10 across college football. We'll talk about those those rankings. We'll talk Michigan State Purdue, too. We'll get his thoughts on that game specifically and talk a lot about that. Ben, of course, is the host of the morning after over on Sports Grid. We'll talk about college football week 10 and the betting fallout of the college football playoff rankings later on today. Firstly, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. We, of course, have a bi-weekly podcast this time of year to talk college football and the NFL. So you can get both those by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. And while you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. Now, before we talk to Ben about week 10, I'll go back to last week and recap what we had to Drew Martin and Drew had a very nice week on his bets. Covering the past. So last week, Drew Martin was on here to talk week nine in college football. He is on Twitter at Drew Martin bets. And of course, he is also on Sports Grid, also over on Wager talk. Drew had Auburn minus one when that game opened. He said that he would still bet it at two and a half. We discussed that game on Wednesday and it closed at three. So got some movement there from when he bet it and from when we discussed it. And they covered all those numbers. They got up in the first half. That crowd, they get banged up in that game. But the defense for Auburn absolutely clamped down in the second half. You talked about how the public had caught on to Ole Miss's offense and how the time to buy the past. We saw a lot of that in that game against Ole Miss. Auburn won the game 31 20 to get the win for Drew. Auburn's kind of interesting, Ed. I think we kind of know what some things are with this team, but they're playing better football now than they played. At least to me, it feels like for a while. Yeah, for sure. I mean, well, they obviously have everything in front of them. So, yeah, they're LLSU this week, right? I think, yeah. So they are playing. We're talking about them with Ben, I believe. Yeah, they're playing Texas A&M this week, four and a half point dogs. Yeah, Texas A&M pretty feisty, too. So you have a pretty fun game. We'll see how that one goes down. Drew was on North Carolina at plus three and a half against Notre Dame. And the line closed there. Sam Howell made a seven point game with seven minutes left. Notre Dame had a 13 play drive that really killed the clock. UNC still had a chance to cover because they got the ball back down 10 with a minute 37 left and they got to the Notre Dame 22 for one final play. Howell completed the pass. They got down to the four yard line, couldn't quite score. So a very close one there where Drew almost got the cover. Couldn't quite get it across, but Notre Dame did cover either way. A close one for Drew there, but a loss for North Carolina. Finally, Drew said the dog was barking for Miami versus Pitt. You know, boy, worthy. He liked Miami plus nine and a half. It closed there. A Miami one outright. So it didn't really matter. They wanted 38-34 to get a super easy cover and the outright win. Nice week for Drew there. And I kind of hope that drew his his Twitter name is plus money, Martin. Kind of hoping he got the plus money on the Miami Money Line, too. He didn't mention that, but I'm kind of hoping he did. It was a good game, though, for Miami for sure. Your bet was on Ohio State minus 17 and a half against Penn State. It was 18 and a half on Wednesday and it did close there. Penn State kept that game close and they lost by nine. But Ohio State really dominated the yardage department. They averaged nine yards per rush or per pass versus 6.9 for Penn State. Ohio State was at 4.7 yards per rush versus 1.1 for Penn State. They just couldn't convert in the red zone. They Ohio State kicked four field goals. That kept this game closer than it would have been otherwise. And it seems like Ed, the field goes with the difference maker in terms of the spread in this game. Yeah, I think I think this was a mistake. I'm leaning towards this being a mistake on my part in the sense that, you know, my model reacted pretty aggressively to what had happened the week before Penn State's kind of shocking loss to Illinois. Ohio State beating I think that was Indiana. And, you know, it made before the previous week, Ohio State would have been about a 14 point favorite and that shot up all the way to about 23. And in my eagerness to bet a favorite, a team that is probably going to be in the playoff, a team that could be dominant, although we certainly haven't seen it on the defense side of the ball. We we did see it. We did see it on the defense side of the ball in the previous three games and actually four, but Akron's essentially a bye week. So with with Ohio State, I don't know, I but when you kind of looked at my numbers like that one game dropped Penn State down about 35th, which is just not where James Franklin team is ever going to be. OK. So I probably should have thought more into that. I think I think the spread 17 and a half, 18 and a half was probably fair. You know, and things like, you know, shifted right back to basically where they were before the week after the game. You know, Penn State actually had a better success rate than Ohio State. So, yeah, I think it was a mistake. I think that the so so my my aggressive model, the one that I use for this is more accurate at predicting spreads in games. And that's why I go with it. But I think it can overreact. I think there's specific situations in which it can overreact. And this might have been one of them. Obviously, there's no certainties in life. This is just me talking about it. And it's also interesting to think about this in terms of Northwestern, too, because, you know, this is this is a team that's traditionally somewhere between 25th and FPS average. 65th, right? Right. You know, are they really as bad as their success rate numbers look right now? Yeah, probably on offense, but but maybe not so much on defense. So, you know, I mean, I did use the model of the bet them against Michigan that they did. Michigan did cover that. I did. Let's see what the Rutgers game is the other one. Yeah, Rutgers game was another one where you're like, well, you know, it's Northwestern really that bad. That program hasn't been below FPS average, right? Right. So. Anyways, these are things I'm kind of thinking about as I kind of adjust the new model. Think about, you know, when it can be wrong because it certainly can be. Well, I think that's one of the tough things, too, because that model came out of COVID effectively, right? You were trying to react to changes. So that's a new model for you like a year and a half old, correct? Yeah. But I do think it has the right idea because in college football, you have to react quickly. In NFL, you're probably. But I think that's kind of the key thing here is when it's a new model, it's tougher to have like the red flags in your brain of, OK, I like this model overall. Here are the spots to look out for the situations where it may be incorrect. You can't know that in a very small sample. And I think that's kind of the benefit here of like doing stuff live, doing stuff in time is you can be like, OK, now I have the red flag. I have that that mantra of the team has an outlier, so bad game. Maybe I want to dig more into it. And I think that having that red flag and gaining that is something that we're going to do throughout the season, especially with a new model like the one you've developed here. Yeah, I think that, yeah, you always want to learn and a good way to learn faster is to to lose money on it. Right. Exactly. Which is why I have massive red flags and my NASCAR model says to bet Joey Logano. It's just, you know, it's like, hey, maybe we should rethink this. So that's always helpful. And we can't get that without, you know, putting money on the line. So I think that's been a learning experience for sure, too. So we'll see. Are you thinking of integrating the two models together? Or is it more so you just want to have the red flag in your brain, like I said, with the new model and still lean more so on that one? I don't I don't integrate the models I could. Should probably do some back testing on it. One of the reasons I did bet Ohio State was that my model that only uses from data this year had Ohio State by almost 20. So there was there were other aspects to my analysis that pointed towards Ohio State. But obviously, you know, I mean, you don't ever completely throughout your preseason prior and the market rankings, which are, you know, which are very productive or on the other side. Right. So. Well, good conversation to have because a lot of people, I'm sure with the the the spreading of legal betting, probably are developing their own numbers. And it's good to know to be aware of these things, you know, be aware of where your model may overestimate or underestimate teams. And I think that's a helpful conversation to have. So I'm sure we'll talk more about that as the season goes along as well. We're going to dive into college football week number 10 here in just one second. But first, the Breeders Cup is set to begin this weekend. And FanDuel is celebrating by giving you a chance to get in on the action with some enhanced odds. Starting this Thursday, new players to sign up on FanDuel Racing will get 20 to one odds on any horse to win a Del Mar race on Friday or Saturday. That is any horse to win in the favorites. The Breeders Cup will be here before you know it. So bet horse racing right on your phone with the super easy to use FanDuel Racing app. Now, $5 max bet download the FanDuel Racing app, visit racing.fanduel.com for more details, eligibility restrictions apply. Covering the present. Let's bring Ben Stevens back into covering the spread to talk some college football. Week number 10 to talk about the college football playoff rankings. Ben, welcome back. How are you doing today? Well, Jim, I've been better, mainly because Gary Varda and seeing that smile that he has each and every Tuesday night is back into my life and having him just announce what all of Cincinnati has done and proven to do for the College Football Playoff Committee angers me once again. So outside of the CFP selection committee, I'm happy to see both of you guys. I do not wish them very well, but I was quite upset on Tuesday night when the CFP rankings came out. So my mood has been up and down the last couple of days. But no lingering resentment, right? All good, right? Oh, no lingering resentment. I mean, listen, I'm a big 10 guy. You guys can see the big 10 flags right there. Gary Varda, the athletic director of the University of Iowa. They love the big 10. I mean, why would Wisconsin be ranked unless you really, truly love the big 10? Why do you keep Michigan at number seven ahead of Oklahoma? I don't even like OU, but the committee really loves the big 10 conference. So no lingering resentment for what he is doing to make my favorite sport in the world just seem meaningless throughout the regular season. No, no lingering resentment whatsoever. Well, hey, first of all, I think Wisconsin is still a pretty good football team. I know they got some questions in the quarterback. I thought that was one that, you know, putting a three loss team in there. I think that I think they're spot on there. But clearly, Cincinnati is the big story. And it just doesn't look like they're going to go up with the remainder of their schedule and what, you know, obviously with three big 10 teams in the top seven, not three, three teams are not going to end up in the in the top seven in the final ranking. So but it just doesn't look like Cincinnati has a path, right? No, it really doesn't because not only does Cincinnati need to worry about what's ahead of them like Ohio State and Michigan State, who will seemingly knock each other out like Oregon, who if they are a one loss Pac-12 champion will probably get a bid at least based on where things stand right now, according to the CFP selection committee, not one loss Alabama, but come on, it's coach Nick Saban. So we don't care about losses on the road as a 16 and a half point favorite. How could we ever care about that? So not only does Cincinnati need to worry about what's ahead of them, they also need to worry about what's behind them because you have a perfect nine and O Oklahoma team that if they went out and they are a big 12 conference champion, like they are favored to do on the Fandall Sportsbook at minus 200 as an odds on favorite to win the big 12 conference championship. You probably have Oklahoma leapfrogging you as well. So Cincinnati was put into a peculiar and disappointing position where they don't really control their own destiny. Was that always a thought? Would the Bearcats have an opportunity to really make their way and make their own path? Probably not the case, but with how the committee said it in the initial rankings, yes, it seems like Cincinnati is pretty Esso out of luck, if you know what I'm saying. Yeah, for sure. And it's kind of a bummer because I feel like things in one sense broke well for them in the fact that they they got the win over Notre Dame and Notre Dame isn't as good as their record suggests. So that's a break. And I don't know. I mean, the committee sent a clear message, you know, maybe that's better than putting in a third at this point and then like screw them later, right? So yeah, I don't know. I don't know. My final point about Cincinnati, which angers me because no group of five team has ever even been ranked in the top four. Of course, no group of five team has ever made the college football playoff in now our eighth year of using this asinine system. But if we are not going to give Cincinnati the chance, what does that say to the bearcast that everything we have asked you to do means absolutely nothing because for a lot of group of five teams, fair or unfair is a two year process. So Cincinnati is unbeaten last year in a weird COVID year keeps it tight with the number one team in the country right now in Georgia in a bowl game. And then the committee says that wasn't good enough. We need to see you schedule harder in a non-conference. So what do they do? They schedule a road test at a top 20 ranked Illinois team when the schedule was set. They schedule a road test on the road under the watchful eye of touchdown Jesus in South Bend, Indiana. And that's still not good enough, despite it being a double digit road win against the team that the committee then ranked 10th in the country. So what exactly can Cincinnati do at this point? It almost seems to feed. Yeah. I think that the rankings are frustrating for sure, but we can also draw some betting takeaways from them. And I think that's kind of the key thing is deciding, OK, what are they telling us? And what does that mean for the futures market? So, Ben, when you look at what you saw last night and then take a look at the futures market, anything standing out to you, any maybe values or teams you're now staying away from as a result of what we saw last night? What's very interesting to me, Jim, is that the betting market didn't move all that much, despite the fact that Cincinnati fell to number six. Their odds got a little bit longer, but they were in plus money after this weekend anyway. And up to plus 180 right now in the Fandall Sportsbook. What stood out first and foremost was that Oklahoma, who is currently ranked eighth in the country, according to the CFP selection committee, actually has better odds to make the college football playoff right now than both Alabama, who currently ranks number two, and Ohio State, who currently ranks number five in the CFP's first rankings of the year. They're minus 174. The Buckeyes and the Tide are both one minus 164. So when you have Oklahoma minus 174, I should say, that's better than where Ohio State and Alabama stand. And then, of course, Georgia at minus 2000. I think that's the only thing we all agree on, is that Georgia should be that much of a difference. Michigan State, from a perspective, is interesting. When you look at the Spartans really across the entire futures market, how the betting market see the Spartans, it has been the same case all year long. Michigan State checked in in the top four in the initial rankings, but they are plus 1040 to make the college football playoff on the Fandall Sportsbook right now. They are plus 1000, 10 to one to win the Big 10 Conference Championship, and they are still 80 to one to win the national championship as things currently stand. So I think even though the committee said, hey, congrats on being undefeated and a huge win against Michigan last week, there's really not that great of a shot, at least according to the betting market on the Michigan State's Spartans of making the final four when all is said and done. And do you agree with that? Do you agree with the sentiment where, despite the win, Michigan State's path is still pretty tough? I think so, because Michigan State next weekend on November 13th, we'll have a game against Ohio State and how Ohio State is playing right now. They need to get through the Buckeyes to even have a chance of winning the Big 10 East, to have a chance of winning the Conference Championship, to have a chance at the college football playoff. And although they are ranked ahead of Ohio State right now, if you have seen the Buckeyes play the last four weeks, it's not the same Ohio State team we saw lose to Oregon even at home in week number two. So it's sad to say almost that Ohio State is exactly where we expected them to be based on what we thought might be a different scenario in the Big 10 Conference, specifically the Big 10 East Division entering the year, at least in the early going of the year. But I think it makes sense because Michigan State still has so much to do to get past Ohio State and then end the year even trying to knock off Penn State as well. I mean, what do you think Michigan State's ceiling is? Well, I think right now it's probably a New Year's Sixth Bowl. It's probably a Rolls Bowl appearance if Ohio State makes a college football playoff because that could be their only regular season loss because I am a lot higher on Michigan State than the market might be. If you guys have seen my Twitter, dating back to a random Tuesday in the middle of May, I let out a Big 10 take. I said that Michigan State was going to win seven games in this 2021 college football season. It turns out I already hit the over there. Even I undersold a team, Jim, that had a team win total of four and a half and 20 a year. Now they are a perfect eight. No, they are one of three teams and all of FBS college football that has just a single loss against the spread. That's how good Michigan State has been. That's how profitable Michigan State has been. So I think right now it's a New Year's Sixth Bowl, which would be quite an accomplishment for Mel Tucker in his second year. But the reason I have been as high on MSU throughout the entirety of the season is because of the complete talent overhaul on that roster. We saw Mel Tucker undertake with the Spartans entering year number two, and it's a very different team. We are seeing that right now with Kenneth Walker, the third, who is a Heisman finalist in my mind is tied for the third shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy. So I think they're sealing as it currently stands and what with what is still out there for the Spartans is probably a New Year's Sixth Bowl. If they pulled off the incredible and upset Ohio State, there's a great path to the college football playoff. Tough to see that happen, though, because right now Ohio State minus 270 to win the big 10 over at Fanjul Sportsbook. You mentioned that Michigan State is 10 to one, nobody else outside of Ohio State shorter than 10 to one. Any lingering value for you in Ohio State with how they played or is there value elsewhere or just to market stay away for you right now? I mean, it's probably a stay away at the moment to see Ohio State have the best odds of any team in any conference and all of college football on Fanjul right now to win their conference championship is something we could have said probably back in early August. But after the start, Ohio State got on. It wasn't something we felt at the time. Now Ohio State minus 270 feels about right for where the Buckeyes are. So the thought process has always been Jim and it's funny because with how interesting this college football season has been with how many upsets we have seen and from what we saw on both of these teams in the early going to think that we are headed toward a Ohio State in Wisconsin Big 10 title game is not the craziest thought in the world. So my thought entering the year in terms of a value play in the futures market in the Big 10 was you need to pick the winner of the Big 10 West who will ultimately face off against Ohio State in the Big 10 championship game because you hope that the value you have right now is better than what the money line number would be for that Big 10 championship game where Ohio State's probably at least a two touchdown favorite. So right now that you see Wisconsin at 10 to one in Wisconsin still has some work to do to get past Minnesota who is 18 to one to win the Big 10 Conference championship. That would be my focus. Look at the teams in the Big 10 West and right now it seems like Wisconsin and Minnesota are destined to decide who wins the Big 10 West division in the battle for Paul Bunyan's acts the final week of the regular season. I think it will be Wisconsin based on where the badgers are trending based on how good that defense is ahead of Georgia in total defense in the country ahead of Georgia. Surprisingly so in terms of rushing defense Georgia still the best defense in the country. I will not mince words there but that's how good Wisconsin is that they rank ahead of them in those statistical categories. So I think it will probably be Wisconsin. So then at 10 to one you hope that's a better price than the money line value you might be able to hedge out on in the Big 10 championship game. But that's where I would look for value. All right. Well let's stay in the Big 10. Michigan State goes to Purdue. Michigan State is a road two and a half point favorite fandal sports book. Everywhere else I looked about a half an hour ago was at Michigan State at three. So you know Michigan State clearly deep Michigan last week. What are you thinking about this game. I think the reason it's at two and a half is again the public has never really had confidence in the betting market has never really had that full faith in Mel Tucker and the Spartans. So that's why it's at two and a half only for the number three team in the country. According to the CFP poll and a team that is a perfect unbeaten eight no and also the potential of a trap game let down spot following in that huge 16 point comeback victory at home against their bitter rival in Michigan. When I look at it from a perspective of actually breaking this game down though from a football perspective of what we will see on the field. It also isn't the greatest matchup for Michigan State because Purdue who loves to be that plucky thorn in every big 10 team side is a great throwing team. That is Jeff Brahms offense of philosophy throw the football at all costs and Purdue is the third best passing offense in the big 10 averaging over 307 passing yards per game. Michigan State by far the worst passing defense in the big 10 conference allowing more than 300 yards per game. And we saw even Michigan who loves to run the football runs the football at the seventh highest clip in all of college football look efficient in the passing game with Kate McNamara against the Spartan secondary this past Saturday even in a defeat. So I know that that is what Purdue is going to try to do. And defensively the boilers are pretty good up front but they do allow a lot of chunk yardage on the ground over 135 yards given up on the ground per game on average. And of course Kenneth Walker the third is on the other side for Michigan State. So that is where Michigan State is going to go to to try to win this football game. I still believe in Michigan State. The number is strange. It smells like a fish. I'm not entirely sure why it's so short outside of the overall narrative of it. But I still have belief in Michigan State. If you would have twisted my arm and yes this is revisionist history and I could say whatever I want right now I probably would have taken the points with MSU last weekend in East Lansing. But it was very hard to find an edge in that game. I look at this game a little bit differently where I still believe in Michigan State although we know what a House of Horrors West Lafayette can be for teams in early November when they have their site set on something more than the Purdue Boilermakers. So I still would lay the points with Michigan State on the road. I think it will be very close to that two and a half though. Michigan State ends up winning by a field goal. Cool. You've got the better number on the Fandall Sportsbook and that hook could certainly give it on Saturday. I think it's an interesting situation here because it sounds like the conviction level is kind of low. Is it are you convinced enough with Michigan State to actually like bet this one or is this more of a lean for you? This would be more of a lean. Jim, we talk all the time on the morning after about your power ratings and what it takes for you to say, all right, now this makes sense. It gives me the edge that I need here and then the numbers also back up how I feel about this game. This would be more the feel about this game. I'm not sure my power rating numbers of which I do not have them. I'm not as smart as both of you very intelligent men. But if my numbers were going to be around it, I would probably make it a two and a half point game. So the edge probably isn't there. It's more a feel of having had that belief in Michigan State since the summer. And at this point, might as well write out the take. OK, so just a lean toward Michigan State here in this one versus Purdue. Let's move now to Auburn versus Texas A&M. Texas A&M four and a half point favorites total is forty nine and a half. And Auburn trending up maybe potentially Bonix played a bit better the past two weeks. I'm hesitant to be too effusive there. Auburn's got a couple big wins. We've also got a large sample on him not being this. So are you buying the recent uptick for Auburn's offense? Are you still skeptical? Well, I'm a little bit still skeptical because I need to see Bonix continue to do it. And that's something about Bonix. And that's maybe not fair from an overall assessment point. But we know the numbers, especially in big road games in Bonix's tenure playing quarterback for the Auburn Tigers. But this year, Auburn on the road, especially against the number has been pretty good. Two and one ATS covering by more than a touchdown on average. And since Bonix was benched in that Georgia State game, he has looked really good. He is playing with a confidence level we have yet to see. His head coach, Brian Harston said at the time, I hope it lights a fire under our young quarterback. And it certainly seems to have done that. That being said, he is now facing a defense in Texas A&M who ranks in the top five and scoring defense in the country, only giving up about just over 16 points per game to their opponent. Can he continue to put up these numbers we have seen in recent weeks against probably the best defense he will see this year maybe outside of Alabama in the Georgia team they saw a couple of weeks ago, where they only put up 10 points. So with that being said, and that game, by the way, also on the road against Georgia. So with that all being said, I'm not so sure I'm buying in on Auburn. But where I think the value might be here is on that overunder total because as I mentioned, A&M, one of the best defenses in the country, they can contain Auburn to around two scores. I don't know that Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies are going to need to do much more than that. In Zac Calzada, the quarterback who's had to step in for those Texas A&M Aggies has looked a lot better himself, but still not the most prolific offense there in College Station. So I could very much see this game being slightly low scoring, something like a 2014 A&M, a 2117 A&M, a more bitter grinded out game than potentially. So if my lean overall, the area I would look probably at the under of that total. And that is at 49 and a half right now. We're at Fangell Sportsbook for that A&M versus Auburn game. Let's move now to Oregon at Washington. A lot of weird stuff going on media this one this week. It's been fun as a consumer of the content. Oregon is a six and a half point favorite. Total is 51 and a half. Oregon, despite being top four in the playoff rankings, hasn't really played anybody. They've not played anyone outside of Ohio State, ranked top 40 by SB plus by Bill Connelly's number at ESPN. So they've convinced the playoff committee, but Ben, are you convinced with Oregon right now? OK, here we go. I understand the head to head matchup indicator that the committee used to rank Oregon over Ohio State. For this initial ranking, I can make my peace with that. Ohio State is not the same team they were week number two. Oregon won that game on the road as a 13 and a half point underdog without Cave on Tibido and some of their other best offenders. All good by me. Fine for these initial rankings. No, Jim, I am not convinced by the Oregon Ducks because they are just two and six against the spread. They have only won those two games when booked as an underdog that game against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl as virtually a pick them against UCLA a couple of Saturdays ago as a favorite of which they are this week on the road in Seattle. They are oh and six against the number not covering by more than a touchdown on average. So no, I am not convinced that Oregon is one of the top four teams in the country. And for all the arguments about Cincinnati tying this back into Gary Barthes loose rhetoric that Cincinnati didn't look all that great against Navy and Julane. Wait till he hears that Oregon lost to a Stanford team that has three wins. We'll wait for that for the next edition of our CFP ranking show. All that being said, no, I'm not convinced in the Ducks. I'm not necessarily convinced in the Ducks laying this number against Washington. But Washington has truly, truly been a struggle so far this year. I mean, when you look at what they did in the first couple of weeks, they've rallied back from that and they actually still have the third shortest odds to win the Pac 12. It's a far drop off. It's Oregon at even money. Then it's Utah plus 110. Then it's Washington at 12 to one because there might be a path if they knock off Oregon in this game that would decide the winner of the Pac 12 North. But I don't believe in this Washington team either who is also a very bad margin against the spread. And their last two wins in Pac 12 play being Stanford and Arizona by a single score an average of a six point margin of victory over those two teams in Arizona. As you guys will know, one of two teams in college football that doesn't have a win straight up this year. So I don't really believe in either of these two teams. It's not out yet where I would look to play this is I like Oregon's defense. I hate Washington's offense. If I don't want to attack the game total overall or the spread inside of the favorite, I love team totals in college football. I think there are edges to be had. I would probably lean a huskies in total under for this game in the Pac 12. Excellent. And for Oregon, yeah, I don't really believe in this Oregon team, too. It looks like if they're going to fall out of the playoff contention, it's probably at Utah in a couple of weeks. I would think so. That could be a game that might decide Oregon's college football playoff state. But it also could be just a preview of what we are going to see in two more weekends after that in the Pac 12 title game, because Utah has been really, really good at home. And thankfully for Utah, that matchup will be in Salt Lake against Oregon. So I don't think Utah then all of a sudden shoots up the board to be a team you would have to put in contention for a college football playoff spot. It could derail what the Ducks want to do. But I think it's still probably if Oregon beats Washington this week, a preview of what we might see just a couple of weeks later in the Pac 12 title game. We'll see how that goes down. Yeah, Oregon six and a half point favorite right now, total 51 and a half. And once that team total for Washington is posted, check it out and see if you got value on the under with that one. Ben, anywhere else seen value for this week based on the odds of Fandall Sportsbook? I think something that is very interesting, Jim, is a game in the ACC where I'm not entirely sure why the unranked home team is favored this week against the number nine team in the country in Wake Forest because Wake Forest now has to prove what its medal is actually worth a perfect eight no straight up five no in ACC play, but just four and four against the spread. The next three weeks for the Demon Deeks will tell us all we need to know on if Wake Forest is a legitimate contender to be an unbeaten ACC champ and have a legitimate path to the college football playoff because they have North Carolina this week. And what actually an interesting note here is a non conference game. This game has been on the books for almost a decade and was before Wake Forest joined the ACC. So that is an interesting note for how this game is conceptualized just so everybody knows it does not exactly affect Wake Forest's chance of winning an ACC championship. I know, I'm surprised myself, but that is how this game is scheduled as of right now. Very weird things, but then Wake Forest has North Carolina this week on the road, they have NC State and then Clemson in the next two weekends following this test against the Tar Heels will know very quickly if Wake Forest is a legitimate contender for that ACC title. I look at this game. The total has been already steamed up to 76 and a half. Wake Forest has played some games that would leave nobody wanting more offense than what you have seen because there was a game where Wake Forest scored 70 points against a service academy and army who also scored 56 points in the over under total for that game was 51 and a half. So this being your 76 and a half right now against North Carolina who has played five or there eight games to the over would beg you to take it over right. Well, I look at this like if Wake Forest is going to win this game if they are going to just win outright as a dog probably will see an under coming to play. So if you want to take Wake Forest this weekend I would also lean the under or you could just take the money line price for a team that is booked as an underdog where they've only been booked as an underdog once before this year and they beat Virginia straight up 37 17 when they were a three and a half point dog against the who's a couple of weeks ago. Do you have a preference in those markets? Are you looking at the money line mostly? Do you want the points? Do you want the under? Lean for you between those three or are you interested in all of them? In this case right here because the spread is past what we would consider a key number of three in the NFL. I would probably actually lean money line because in college football, unlike the NFL, this is a quick force can't lose again if they want to win the ACC or they want to prove to the college football playoff committee that they need to be a part of the conversation. They can ill afford any losses. So it's not about covering two and a half points and boy we lost by a field goal or boy we lost by an extra point whatever it might be. They're going to try to win this football game. And when I think Wake Forest is the better team overall, I would probably lean money line because in my experience, the lines in college football are not as sharp as the NFL. It is much harder to beat a side in the NFL than it is in college football. And when it's that close for a game that we can expect to be close, I would probably lean money line if I was backing the Wake Forest side. All right. So Ben is on Wake Forest plus one 14 in the money line versus UNC for this weekend. That is Ben Stevens. Check him out on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens and check out the morning after on the sports grid every weekday over on sports grid. Ben, we appreciate the time. Enjoy the football this weekend. Enjoy the six days you get off until you get mad at the football playoff rankings once again. We'll talk to you again soon. Thank you very much, Jim. I'm still stewing thinking about next Tuesday night. But thank you for having me, guys. Maybe not six days until the anger began. We'll just let it hang out until that time comes. Well, now you know what to expect, though, right? So you got like six days to meditate on it. And to be honest that I thought I knew what I expected this time to and I still got disappointed. I do the same thing every week. Let the anger flow through you, Ben. Let it let it let it happen. Don't restrict this at all. It certainly does. It certainly does. Well, thank you very much. Talk to you soon. Covering the future. Big thank you once again to Ben Stevens for swinging by and breaking down a college football week number 10 and talking about the college football playoff. You can find Ben on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens. Check him out on the morning after on sports grit every weekday. Let's move now into covering the future for this week. And Ed, we're recording on Wednesday, which means if you want to talk Thursday night football, we got to talk about it for today. So you're talking jets versus cold. So I'm fascinated to hear what you've got cooked up for this one. Yeah. So if you saw the Colts against Tennessee, they were tied late in the game. Carson Wentz drops back in his own end zone and he was under pressure and he decided to chuck the ball with his left hand to avoid the safety. And he threw it right to a Titans player for pick six. He ended up. They ended up going down and tying the game after that. So, you know, it goes to the offense. There was kind of a lucky pass and then there was a pass and there was there was a brain dead pass interference on the Titans safety, but they ended up tying up and then Wentz throws another awful interception triple covered it over time. And in Tennessee, one that came so clearly two bad decisions don't define a quarterback, but Wentz's offense just looks kind of terrible. Their last when I look at a success rate adjusted for opponents and Indianapolis past defense is not that much better. They ranked 31st. When you look at coverage grades on PFF, it looks like Xavier Rose and Kenny Moore, two of their cornerbacks have dropped off significantly from last year. So I really see this as a chance to fade the Colts with such a big number here. Obviously, we got to talk about the other side too, because the Jets don't have Zach Wilson. He got hurt a couple of weeks ago, but you know, before that New England game, the pass offense was 31st. They weren't particularly good. So Mike Wright has replaced Wilson. He led the Jets to that big win over Cincinnati. And they did have like a crazy 66% passing success rate significantly higher than the NFL average of about 45%. I mean, it's hard to make too much of obvious as a small sample size. I obviously don't think they're going to keep that insane rate up. But Zach Wilson wasn't really even playing at an NFL average level either. And we don't know what the drop off or if there is going to be a drop off to Mike White, it's not like we're trying to replace Aaron Rogers, right? So oh, and the other side of the ball, Jets pass defense. So they came into a lot of questions. They had a lot of questions earlier this season, throwing a lot of young guys in the secondary. But they're actually 15th. When I look at my adjusted success rate, they are getting pretty good contributions from two young cornerbacks in Bryce Hall, second year player, and Michael Carter, a fifth round rookie, courted PFF grades. So my model likes Indianapolis by about five. The data from the current season actually likes the Jets by a point, which tells you how much my model hates the Colts in terms of mostly because of the I mean, both sides of the ball. So I'm finding value about this Jets plus 10 and a half. All the sharp books actually had a slight lean towards the Jets as well. So yeah, I like this game. Yeah, Mike White's interesting because he's going to grade out well in success rate models because he doesn't throw down field, which I mean, you know, is what it is. But like the Colts play a defense, typically they may change this for Thursday, but it's conducive to the same type of stuff the Jets used to beat the Bengals, where they want to stop the deep pass and the Jets aren't going to throw deep with Mike White is his average of the target is like four, four point four, I think last week. So like it's possible that that formula wouldn't work against most teams, but it might work against this team. So I'm looking at my numbers right now. And if I combine my priors with twenty twenty one data and adjust for Mike White versus Zach Wilson, I the Jets projected to rank thirty first in passing efficiency. But I still see value on this game. My numbers of the Jets plus seven point or seven point six as the number and it's a 10 and a half. So it shows value there as well. And like that's with the Jets assuming that the passing offense regressive massively from where it was last week, which probably is honestly an indication that it agrees with you on Indianapolis. They got them 18th in passing offense right now. Overall defense, if I do for that, they are. I guess they're still eighth there, but what are you using for that? So it's a number of fires, metrics, combination of priors and what we've seen so far this year. They're 19th against the past. Why are they eighth overall? Anyway, I'll dig into that more later. But even with the the defense being graded positively there, it still shows value in the Jets. Not sure. Oh, it's because yeah, I guess their rush defense has been good. And I think that's factoring into it because the Jets tend to be pretty rush heavy. But I think that if I had to guess, that's probably the reason why. But yeah, 10 and a half. I have cold rush defense pretty good. Yeah, they're first based on the combo of priors and 20-21 data for me as well. But you know, I mean, like it's still it's still a big number for a guy who is very prone to mistakes and can erase and can put himself in a hole in terms of the spread very quickly. So I think that I'd agree with you on Jets plus 10 and a half. Great. So we'll see how that one goes. Again, that's Thursday night. We'll talk more NFL tomorrow. And I've got NFL right now as well, because I've been trying to avoid college football stuff. And if I look at my numbers, you know, I did see value in the Jets, due season value and other stuff. But like for the most part, I can talk myself out of more bets than I can talk myself into this week in terms of the sides. So as such, I'm probably going to lean more in the team total market versus the spread market this week. So that's going to force me to take the Vikings over 21 and a half against the Ravens after their team total. That's minus one 10 if Angel Sportsbook. I have a really hard time quitting this Vikings offense right now, even with their inconsistencies, with their weird bat down games. They're in fifth and schedule adjusted passing offense based on number fires metrics. They're facing Baltimore and Baltimore's had good flashes this year, specifically in that Chargers game. But they're not the jugger not defensively that they once were. They're 21st against the past. They're 18th overall defensively. I think the Vikings should be able to football here because the passing offense has been so good. My numbers are showing value on the spread right now because it does weight heavily towards passing offense. That's at six points right now. The spread is so I, you know, you are getting across four and three as far as key numbers go. But I just still worry about betting the spread when the Vikings defense just lost Neil Hunter. They don't have Patrick Peters and they're down some key players right now. So I struggled to get to the spread here. I think that's why I want to gravitate more towards the team total than the spread given that there is some risk tied to that Vikings defense. It gives me more avenues to hit more leeway. Things get crazy to go with the team total here versus the spread. And I just see value in betting betting on the Vikings right now. My favorite avenue here is attacking it via their team total over 21 and a half. That's minus 110. That's my first bet this week in Ed. I had another like, you know, not not like a red flag moment, but like I do think my numbers tend to be a little high in the Vikings. So I want to get a chance to check with you. What do you remember say about Minnesota's offense specifically? And is it wrong for me to be high on them right now? I mean, I think my numbers like Minnesota's offense when I look at adjusted success rate, they are long. They drop significantly. They're 14th. OK. They were in the top 10. So what? Yeah. So I mean, I still think they, you know, when you have those pieces that wide receiver, there is upside there. So I mean, my model actually has Minnesota with 24 points. So it would agree with what you are saying. OK. And I think that the reason that the adjusted success rate numbers probably dropped is because they faced Dallas last week and Dallas had been letting up a really high success rate, but they had been getting by with turnovers. And suddenly on Sunday night, that flipped. Like they suddenly like just they changed. I don't know if they changed something or what, but like suddenly the success rate against them was crazy low. Yeah. Well, I mean, it's just the randomness of the NFL. But I thought it was it. What did you think of Cooper Rush? I think he was fine. Like I think that he made good decisions, which is kind of all you can ask the backup like physically limited, but like he made good decisions. And like if I were looking for backup, I feel like that's kind of what I'd covet. And that's fine when you have those receivers, right? Right. So it's I've been thinking a lot about kind of how receivers and quarterbacks mesh and, you know, what what can what kind of quarterback like Josh Allen do before he had stuff on digs, right? Not as much clearly. And there's a synergy there. And I mean, Bengals with Barrow and Chase too, you know, that that offense might be kind of flukey given that they're feasting on big plays, but like they're generating big plays. And that's that's worth something at least two. Yeah, Jamar Chase, I think when I last look was getting like three yards per route. Run, which like usually with the top receivers are near two. So, you know, there's clear regression inevitable there. And I didn't check it after the last game, but it went down because they faced the Jets. And that was that game where I mean, you mentioned Bryce Hall playing well. He had dropped in the draft because of medical stuff. But when he's healthy, he's playing well. So I think that it makes sense, you know, that that we'd see some regression in that game and it hit in a big way too. Yeah, where did he go to college? Virginia. Virginia. Yeah. And I think that like it might not all in medicals, but I think he had with some shoulder thing that really threw stuff off. And I know that when they took him, it was a that on upside, I think was kind of the thought process. Yeah. And it's working. But I mean, like, you know, well, that stick. Right. Exactly. That stuff is volatile. So it is. The NFL is volatile. If you're the Jets and you have a league average past defense, better on upside every time. Doing a little dance, right? Yeah, absolutely. That's pretty good. With that personality, you'll take it. There have been a lot of issues this year, but like they've got a good defensive line sounds like the coaching stat defensively is doing some good stuff. So encouraging stuff, even though overall, you know, there's a long way to go for sure. That is all that we have here forward today on the college football edition of covering the spread. Big thank you once again to Ben Stevens of Sports Grid for swinging by and chatting about week number 10. You can find him on Twitter at Ben and Scott Stevens tomorrow. We're talking NFL week number nine with Aaron Dolan, a fan who will getting her thoughts on week number nine and her favorite bets of the week. Ed, what is going on for you this week over at the Powering? I had Edward E. Gross on football analytics show. It was a good conversation. Ask them about the A-hole that makes them write the seven nuggets every Saturday. That would be me. So yeah, he's got so many projects going on. We talked a lot about being on TV and LA. Talked about writing up those seven nuggets and how it's been a great opportunity for both of us to kind of explore other things. And so yeah, so that is on football analytics show. It might not be up by the time this goes up, but it'll be up on Wednesday. And then my free. Email newsletter looking at sports betting games that I bet seven nuggets Saturday. You can get that at the powering.com. All righty and find Ed on Twitter at the powering. I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you once again to everyone for tuning in for today. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down NFL week number nine. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network. What's up guys? This is Jordan Spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the FanDuel YouTube channel.