 Let's get over to our mam is to Tim or does we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks You can reach Tim every trading day at odd dash oracle calm That's odd dash oracle calm Tim ord. What's going on brother? Well? Yeah, thanks for having me on again I think you're four charts as soon you got them. I do and I have the first one up All right. This is the monthly chart and it's the SPX And I thought we get back to that with the previous high which was back in January of 2022 up around that 4,800 area But actually there's a sideways in the salation February March in April there and I got a little Circle number there for sixty seven thirty seven point three. Oh, that's the high back in March So the market basically had a kind of sideways trading range there And I think that's probably going to be resistance and we're approaching that level. We haven't hit it yet I thought we may hit it You know a short term because I'm thinking we're going to start a consolidation here any any any day now Okay, you know, maybe it started a bit. I thought we might get to that four sixty seven thirty seven thirty area before that consolidation starts it and it still may I just don't know for sure But if you look at the bottom window, which is the xpx fix ratio, yes And and that's it. This is on a monthly time frame and the month is basically only out Lower half over right, but if that stays down there and the S&P's hold up Around where we are right now And that says that's a pretty big divergence on a monthly time frame So anyhow, what I'm trying to say is you got a lot of cross currents here. Also want to say I have the Bollinger bands here on this monthly chart. Yes, if he knows the Bollinger bands is a Pretty close to where the January 2020 happened up up right around that 4800 area. Okay, so My point is if we do get to 4800, you know This year yet, even though I think we'll may see a consolidation over the next couple of months Maybe three months. Ultimately, I think we do head head back up and go back up at least That's the the January highs that run that 4800 area And that's also where the Bollinger bands are and those two things may stop that rally Okay, and you know, I'm kind of looking for 800 By year in and I I think we made kind of flip sideways Possibly create a big trading range. Yes. So that's kind of a bigger view. Okay So then okay, that's it Should I go to the next shot? Yeah, I just go to the next chart. So this is that's a monthly chart. Yep That looks at the bigger picture. You know, nothing really is bearish about it We got some resistors of 4600 on the SPX and 4800, which is basically the Bollinger band and the January 2,000 22 high That's basically what one to say about that But I don't think we're going to just keep on going. I think we're going to run in To the resistance and this is the next chart here the second one down from the bottom or from the top rather is a Bix to a vbix ratio. Yes, and the vbix is a fix of the fix right and I've kind of screwed around with this thing quite a bit and it actually does a pretty good job of Of you know, once you start nearing high it works pretty well a lot of indicators don't work with a darn Try to find a high but this one finds highs Pretty well and what I want to point out as as the the window right below the vix of the Vbi Vbix ratio is the SPYs. Yes And I get a red line drawn there on the SPYs Where the SPX has not hit its February March April highs the SPYs have So the SPYs is actually into a resistance zone right now Interesting. Hey, can you just say that again Tim? Just say that again that? Just go over that pot again, please All right, the SPX Has has not run into the February March April highs yet. It has not touched those highs Right, but the SPYs is running into the I see okay, February March April highs Right, so the SPYs is actually into resistance zone and the SPX is not quite hit there yet Well, I'm trying to find here or look for is If you notice the SPYs is pretty much fairly straight up over the last couple of months last three months or so. Yes, and the BB the vix of Vbix ratio Still is pretty much is making lower lows as the SPYs is making higher highs So it's not really a divergence now At least, you know, maybe a real short-term one, but nothing that's significant, right? We noticed in the past going into the 2022 high the SPYs is making higher highs and that ratio was making higher lows And that was your warning that you're you're heading into trouble right now happened back in that I'm sorry go ahead. No, no that and then and then is that is the VIX slash You know ratio of the VIX of the VVIX is that the two-day ratio? Is that what that's you doing there, right? No, no, no two days. This is different. Okay. Okay. I got it. I got okay So yeah, I do have a you know a five-day and actually no, I'm with you I don't want to confuse the audience. I got it. I got it. Okay Yeah, what I'm trying to do is find out what the short term is so I really Took me out. This is just raw material They really see if any short-term divergence is really showing up, right? And So that's why I don't do any ratios in this one I want to see any mate minor bounces going on here. Okay. If you look at going back To all those time frames, you know, this chart goes back to like 2000 17 or 18 now all those significant highs those ratios going up as the SP was going up and So far that's not happening here, right? And so You know, I'm trying to find tick readings that trend readings. That's not really saying much, you know that there's another Trend reading I got a 10-day trend reading gets down Well 0.9 usually you can get some consolidations we're up around 1-0, you know, that's not helping we're up around 101 I think a 103 is to the tick readings That's the trend readings the tick reading is not saying much You know next Wednesday, they're gonna 9% chance they're gonna raise interest rates. Yes So maybe we rally into that time frame. I never know. Okay, but cool, but I'm kind of I'm not real buried here I think at worse we flip sideways. I don't think any top's gonna be meaningful Yeah, probably when we get up to around the January 2020 highs up around that 4,800 on the SPX, I think you could have a decent high up there But between now and then, you know, I think we'll flip sideways here probably Into September maybe October. I think actually August is gonna be a down month. Okay Just to kind of just looking at some other stuff, but Nothing real dangerous here is just You know, I don't know. I'm along the SPX, you know, I'm thinking about pulling that position off I'm trying to find a good reason to do it and at the moment. I don't see a real good reason to do it other than I'm a little bit nervous. No, no, I'm with you. I got it. I get it man Yeah, stay stay right there, Tim But that you show up in some indicators that you know, the markets gonna take a wrap and I don't see it here Yeah, it's I hear the music so I'll wait stay right there. Awesome, man Tim or Tom O'Brien. We appreciate your growling problem. I want to stay right there folks to come right back We have the dial up 143 and Aziz down 322 SP's off about 39 will come right back Welcome back folks. Tim or Tom O'Brien We do appreciate your growling a problem with us out here. We have the dial industrials right now 146 you get the NASDAQ off 318 S&Ps are off 37 Don't forget if folks you can reach Tim every day at odd dash oracle comm Okay, Tim. Where we'd like to go? That's going to go to chart three. So I'm kind of done with the S&Ps. Okay There we go. This chart goes. Yeah, it's a chart number three at the bottom window is the 50-day average of the GDX up down volume percent. Yes, and it goes back to 2010 and It's a really good chart To really pick out kind of highs and lows But every time it got down. This is a bottom chart So it's up down volume percent. Yes, every time it got down below minus 20 or lower You're looking at a low and every time it got above This is kind of a more of a short term Type indicator with the other signals last several months. Okay, every time we got above Minus or plus 12 is usually you're near a short term high The market kind of just swings back and forth. Yes, especially the gold market, right? Yeah Yeah, it's a gold market. So But yeah, I'm looking for you know, whatever's going on right now with GDX I think it's going to continue it's going to continue until the bottom of 50-day average of the up-down volume bansal Bansal client or up down volume percent gets above or gets up close to plus 12 or higher Okay, and we're coming in right now now about minus eight So we got a long ways to go nice and so I'm thinking this is multi month So it may take care. I think we're going to go up until October. Okay in that shell Yep, then from there don't know and and That'll be a nice run man Yeah, yeah, it's gonna be I think a nice rally. So this This is this is still early in the stage or this signal. I think I came in around mid-June late June I think it was a for I have to go back and look yep This the signal is not very old well. We speaking so this rally even though we're down What 2.64 percent right now, you know, you got to buy pullbacks and This is probably a pretty good time because eventually we're gonna turn right back up again If not next week the week after so this chart doesn't doesn't look at all the wiggles in our day It looks at the bigger trends, which is pretty well. You can see you know even here I'll put this shot up for our listeners Right now because this is there's no doubt and if we go to the Wyckoff method for a second You know, this is as good as you can get you're going into 44 million shares and you've only done 12 million today So yeah, you get a pullback, but you're pulling back into strength in a month and you know like with no volume And so yeah, I'm with it. Yeah, yeah, you know, could it be down tomorrow? Maybe yeah But hopefully we are going to head higher, right? It's kind of hard to say how high I'm thinking we're gonna go You know, this is I may change this projection, but I did some other projections I don't know a month ago or so and I keep coming up with around 44 and gdx Okay long ways up from here. Yeah, don't know that number is going to be valid or not But I think it's definitely a it's in the cards and so this kind of this kind of takes a big chunk Mostly signals again last several months, you know some longer But you're talking a three four month rally here. Yes, so If you look on the next chart This is so I always like to look at the monthly the weeklies and down to the dailies right easy I used to screw around with the hourlies. I don't want you mess with those anymore Okay, because if I'm a little bit off, you know, so be it Right now going in my direction, right, you know, chances are you're gonna be just fine so this is a weekly chart here and The bottom window is the weekly Cumulative advanced decline percent for gdx and the next window up is the cumulative gdx up down volume percent And I did a Bollinger band on it and every time, you know, if you're above the Mid-Bollinger band on both indicators is a bicycle if you blow it it's a cell signal and Red is a the cell signal and the blue is a bi-signal and doesn't matter which one goes above it first either one okay, so The bottom one went up above the mid-Bollinger band first. So that's the bi-signal So last week it created a bi-signal and the next chart up hasn't quite got above it But my my history suggests either one does it that's good enough for the buy or the sell I see okay So this is on a bi-signal as of last week So it's a little bit lagging in the care not compared to the previous one They give a bi-signal around mid-June This just gave a bi-signal last week and you know, it's so cool Tim and folks Look at them watch this folks. Okay. I just put this up I put a chart up here Tim of the Bollinger band right man. This is This is no doubt man And the Bollinger band on what on gdx or I did I put the Bollinger band on gdx I went back six months and you can see right what you're saying man It goes Underneath that middle one man. It turned it all the way down or jumps above it turned it all the way up You had a little congestion like in april it screwed around a little But then it went down again all the way until like five days ago, man, right and then bang. Yeah, right. Wow Okay. Yeah, yeah momentum You know, it actually bowler uh john Bollinger got it right, you know and And uh the market trends and yes, if you look at the bigger trend the weekly charts, you know What rule though the daily chart so you really got to Start looking at the bigger pictures. He was going on. So right chart Give a bicycle last week It's usually not a week, you know a week or few days bicycle. This is going to go You on for a while. So it kind of confirms the chart. We just showed here Previously the chart number three. Yes. Yes. Good. You know, we're going to keep going up You know probably to maybe top, you know those two bottom indicators We may get to the upper Bollinger band on both of them. I don't know how high is high but Um, you know, I like the idea a couple years. Yeah, no, I like the idea that you have a couple different beat out of it You know, there's no doubt. There's no doubt I like the idea how you have a couple different Um things you can look at to verify, you know In this particular case in the gdx you can use the Bollinger band to verify The last chart that we just did with the up-down volume because then then you get harmony, right? If you get both of them the same way, your probability of being right. There's that pretty dramatically, man Yeah, it goes up dramatically. Yeah, so I've been thinking we're going to be on the radio again in october And I'm thinking we're probably going to look at the high. So we'll be talking about that and everybody will be screaming Yeah, how great the gold market is And I'll be getting a thousand calls. Yeah, I know it's not going to keep going up And you know, it's amazing tim is that what happens is that when I get no gold calls Those anomaly lows and then of course when I get a whole bunch of gold calls We're right next to a high. That's just how life goes. I guess, you know, I mean Yeah, that's how life goes when everybody's convinced it's going to go up. It's usually just the the opposite. So pretty amazing, man Amazing. Well, listen. Hey, can you just stay for one more segment? I want to ask you Another different question about this s&p for a second. All right, just stay stay tight Awesome. Stay right there folks. Tim Ward, Tom O'Brien will be coming right back We have the Dow industrials right now up 160. Nasdaq is down 293. S&Ps are off 34. Tim and I come right back Welcome back folks. So now Dow industrials right now Up 156. Nasdaq is down 285. S&Ps are off 32. We're talking with our mammoth to Tim Wood. We're talking Marcus Tim, let me ask you on the s&p, right? that I don't think we went over it this week the ratio that you use on the weekly between The vix is that a is that you use a weekly ratio also right between the spy going higher and the vix going higher Is that correct? Right. Yeah, but actually uh The one I think I showed you on your program is a five-week average Yes, um, three three weeks is pretty good. Also. Okay. I look at both but Five is just less messy smooths out everything and if you're presenting a chart to an audience that one's a little easier to read Right, but yeah, the three is uh uh, yeah vbix spx ratio And um, that usually diverges that intermediate term highs and that did diverge at the uh, 2020 uh, 22 high and and actually all those highs before so So this will get kind of interesting take take longer would so I would using that do you get another signal at the close tomorrow night? Meaning because it's a weekly it's on a weekly time frame, right? Yeah, you take it on the Friday's close, right? So, you know, you wait in and usually if you ever look at tops, you know They kind of jag around they try to go up and they do kind of fail go back and forth and And we're bottoms, you know a lot of times it's just Straight down and straight back up. Yeah, no, they're nice v's. I mean listen time folks We've seen tops take six months. I I know where I would just say it man. There's no doubt. Yeah Yeah, yeah, there's a lot of me they just take months and And you don't know if it's sideways Consolidation for the halfway point of the move up or is actually building a top or a great big move down Exactly vixx ratio will give you that clue what's going on plus volume studies and some other stuff Sure, the vixx is a pretty powerful tool tool. I've kind of Put it in my my toolbox. I like it. Is it really? It really helps Uh, the trading, you know, what what do you do? As a matter of fact when we were talking about a couple of months ago I was predicting the market was going to go higher. Yes, you know the the reason why I was saying that Because of the that ratio going making higher highs. I'm I'm with you. I gotta trust me like, you know, I mean I'm You know I trade every day so every day is a different day for me But you know when you did come on I says, okay, man It was so hard to press that button going long man. I'm not kidding But it worked. That's the thing. That's crazy, man. Do you know what I mean? It's like, okay I I get it and and if you're trading a longer time frame folks, it's really cool about this signal You know, like for investing. This is a nice tool for an investing to tim. I mean more even more so, right? Because it really, you know Picks out some nice highs and some nice. Well, it's some nice highs. That's what that way. Yeah Yeah, yeah that that ratio matter of fact Was outperforming to the upside the spx Okay, and so the that ratio is getting stronger where the spx is kind of going sideways Yeah, I'm thinking this thing's going to break up, you know It was bearish had done the opposite. We have to be going up that ratio be going down, but right now This is the this is the reason now we're to a point where it's kind of meangering around here You know on that monthly chart I showed I know that ratio Is is gone sideways where the sp is gone up That's why I was asking you that question right now because you know, we got the the low in the In the actual vixx, okay It goes back about three weeks four weeks actually The low in the last six days goes back about six days and then you know Today we got a little pop of course because you got a sell-off So that's why I was asking that question that I can't wait to see what that ratio is tomorrow. Do you know what I mean? So it's So right well if you go if you go back to you know, uh chapter Chart one yes chart. Yep Yeah, if you look at the bottom a window there I have it vixx vixx ratio, right? And I circled in blue they're showing you that you know, the Uh, yes, well tomorrow's the mark's not clear tomorrow is to close So that ratio has a chance to turn back up the chance are probably won't but right now there's a divergence What the sp is making you know short term new highs And that vixx ratio is not making a new high Okay, that's kind of worrying me right now. Do will we get to 4600? You know, yeah, I mean I'm with I guess it has already but the spx is not so right does spx need to I don't know good So I mean these are all probabilities. Oh, yeah. No, I get it. I get it. No doubt That's that's what's so cool about trade man. No, it's that we're in a probability business, man There's no doubt about it, you know, yeah And when you take a look at that That uh, go ahead you well when you just take a look at this run I mean the spx in four months has gone from uh 30 yeah 3,800 to 45 45 45 yeah 45 78 man Yeah Yeah, it's it's uh It's uh, it's it's been a decent run and you know, everybody's not still not really bullish here. So Yeah, I don't know. It's you know, we got a lot of You know, we may have a new administration going in in 2024 and if the market really doesn't know Who that if What what I found out about the market if the market doesn't know It's easy and what's going to go on It's usually a bad sign for the market when it knows what's going on what to expect even though it May not be good for the market. It is still can be in the bull market So I'm I'm thinking next year could have some trouble because You know, I don't know who's going to be president of of 2024 Yep Or well, but you actually what january 2025, right sure when you get well, you know Cool about what you just said there. That's kind of like in life. I I always tell people man Hey, don't worry about telling me no. I just give me an answer, man Do you know what I mean? I can I can deal with a no like if you just you know what I'm saying like You can't it's very hard to deal with You know, you don't know what's going to happen if I can deal with you know, either. Yeah, so that's great No, okay, that could be a bummer But the bad bottom line is at least you know what's happening and move on right, you know, so it makes a big difference Yeah, right Right So when you know a lot of these indicators will help to help to give you a view of what You know, especially that VIX ratio spx VIX ratio type thing Yeah will help to give you a view of what to expect Because you know, I mean even VIX is actually pretty good even picking out bottoms because You can measure the acceleration of that VIX Which is you know, that's why reason that's why I use a roc rate of change And when that VIX panics it's panicking the markets like the trend going to four or five Right, so you can use it the same way to pick out bottom. So the VIX is has a lot more information Um, that I'm just starting to discover over the last couple of years Then the trend does trend, you know has a lot of panic Things to it. Well, also the VIX has so that's so cool, you know Panic things to it too. So I'm with you Well, listen man, it's always a pleasure. You have a great weekend a safe weekend Uh in Tim's now folksy's on Tuesdays at uh the 340 hour And then you know, that's that's one segment. Of course on Thursdays He's gonna borrow at least two segments at that's that's the 320 hour Tim you hey, listen, what's the weather like out there? Are you got is everything hot out there too? No, it's beautiful here. It's probably about You know low high 70s low 80s. No, we might that's awesome, man. Wow It's nice weather. So that's a beautiful thing Okay, man. Well, you have a great one to save one time. Thank you Say right there folks who come right back