 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good trading day. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much. The only thing we ask is if you like the content, just click a like. Click a like. It'll take you one second. Click a like, share, subscribe to the channel, come aboard. The broadcast goes out usually Monday through Wednesday and on the weekend. Again, if you are a loyal viewer and you're on the fence about PIVOTES and you want to give it a try, click the link below in the comments. There is a 30-day test drive of the PS60 Theory and the PIVOTES. Again, it's a very alternative way of looking at the market. It is pretty cool and all it takes is 30 days to figure out if it is for you. Let's talk about it. Yesterday, we had the major earnings releases last night. You had Microsoft, you had AMD, you had Google. Pretty decent numbers all across the board. As we talked about in last night's video, apparently the run-up in those stocks were kind of a let's see. We got a little tired. Let's take some profit-taking. Again, they had every right to take a little bit of profit-taking just because of the massive run-ups. The key level that we talked about last night on the Qs was that 423 level. That 423 level got violated very, very quickly pre-market. As you see where the market closed, we got a pretty aggressive move down. NASDAQ down about a little less than 2% on the day. The other big news today obviously is the FOMC decision on rates to come to no surprise, they left rates unchanged. Their target, according to Jay Powell in his Q&A, is a 2% inflation target. They don't see enough data right now that make it feasible to make another, well, not another, but a rate cut in the next meeting. The bulls didn't like that at all. Today was a really, really aggressive day. We were pretty much shorting balances into supply in the first half of the day. Then just after 2 o'clock, I wanted no part of the FOMC decision. I left without doing anything in the afternoon. Usually I don't train in the afternoon anyway. The morning was pretty good. We'll get to the pivots in a second. There was really no reason to run into the eye of the hurricane if you could avoid it. But the market didn't like the news. If you look at from the 2 o'clock channel, and you can see here right around the 2 o'clock when his conference call ended, had a little bit of juice. Then we just really sold off aggressively into the close. The names that were weak were the catalysts that were taking us down from last night. Microsoft, especially Microsoft and Google, got really, really hit and pretty close below a lot of levels. Now, here's the key going into tomorrow. So far, we have not seen a day to wash out in 2024. As we talked about in the last several days, once the five-day moving average gets lost, there usually is an aggressive move. The five-day got lost. We obviously see that. We obviously talked about the numerous times, despite the rabbit bull market in the last year, actually 13 months now, there's been violent pulls. Now, here's the question. Can the bears get a day to, right? It's not that I want to or don't want to see it one way or another. My preference is that I would like to see a second-day washout. And the only reason why is after a while, guys, and we've been talking about this video on video, it's harder to find value as the days get bigger, as the parabolic moves become stronger, and people are just chasing every single level. Keep this in mind, right? A name like NVIDIA had a run-up. It didn't just have a run-up from 505 to 613. It had a run-up from the 460s, right? 460s to 505. From 460s to 505 in four days, that's kind of a big deal. From 460s to almost 640 in a matter of a month, that really is a big deal. I think we could all agree, no matter how big of a bull you are, that distribution rest is important. It's important for an athlete. It's important for just general everyday health to just get enough sleep and exercise, and sometimes the market needs to rest as well. And if you look at the charts, you'll notice pretty much a couple of things. Either stocks closed at the 10-day moving average, because they already lost the 5, they lost at the 10-day moving average, or in some cases are approaching the 20. And here's my point, right? Here are the keys. So the keys lost the 5, they lost the 10, they're approaching the 20-day, right? That's not a good thing. That's not a good thing because, again, if it loses the 20-day, we're going to start making a bigger move into this rising support here, which eventually becomes the 50-day moving average. When you look at names, for example, like, well, let's look at Google, for example. Again, we had a nice rejection on Google today. You know, Google today lost everything, right? It lost the 5, you know, on the earnings, the 5, the 10, the 20, right? It lost the 200-day EMA. Now we're getting close to the 50-day moving average, right? Look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA today lost the 5-day, but hell, the 10. This could be a really big value play if there is a day two. I don't think there is a more aggressive stock right now on the global macro scale that is more than NVIDIA. So if the aggressive run-up was 240 points, well, if it loses it again, we're just getting mentally ready in case it happens. I don't know if it happens, right? Just because every single time that we've seen stocks close at support, the next day they just literally woke up, right? Woke up and started running again. But my point is if they do lose the 10-day, if NVIDIA does lose the 10-day moving average, guys, there's room all the way down back to 575. That's a nice trade, right? That's a really, really big move. So the value trader in me, right? The value trader in me is saying, yes, I would love to see a small gap up in the market. I would love to see these stocks get rejected at supply. And I would love to see these stocks finally lose a range today, because there's a lot more value to the downside tomorrow than there is to the upside. The upside is just tomorrow, well, there's a bounce. But your safety net on a bounce is today's lows. So if NVIDIA gaps up tomorrow 9, 10 points, I'm just using a number. I'm just randomly literally using a number. I don't think it's going to happen, right? But if it gaps up 9, 10 points, what are you going to turn around and go, well, I'm going to use a 10-point stop? Listen, if you trade three shares, God bless. Some of us don't trade three shares, right? Some of us don't. So it's very, very important to have balance in the market. When the market is a bit tired and sellers get tired, well, what happens? The market starts to rally. Again, this was the case going back into October. The sellers just finally got tired and the market started rallying and reclaimed a 50-day moving average. At some point, if the buyers get tired or they're a little apprehensive, whatever the case may be, and they start saying, well, maybe let's see what happens next, maybe the bear can seize control of a second day and if NVIDIA loses the 10-day moving average, then yes, there's a lot of value tomorrow to the downside. Same thing, for example, let me give you guys some ideas for tomorrow. But same thing, for example, on a trade like Softy, right? Microsoft. Microsoft, there was a big move today. It lost the 5, lost the 10. Now, if Microsoft starts losing today's channel tomorrow, then you have room to 93 back tonight. Again, it's not as big as a move as a potential in the NVIDIA, but again, the value is there for the downside tomorrow. Again, whether we have it or not is your guess as good as mine, but at least the value is absolutely there. And then you look at names, for example, like Tesla, right? Tesla today closed right at the 5-day moving average. A little bit of news came out after the close. Apparently, Tesla is expanding its battery capacity in sparks in Nevada, the new facility for cells for mega packs, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Whether that's going to get the stock going or not, I have no idea. The stock is up about a buck after the close. We'll see if this news gets sold. I don't know if this news is so significant that it's going to cause a panic rally, but again, we don't know. But I am watching the bottom of this channel here on the 5-day moving average. If it starts losing the 5-day, just the way we talked about the queues losing the 5-day, well, we know what happens when you lose the 5-day. Well, we're going to go back to the next support. The problem is the next support on Tesla is all the way down here, which is its earnings low. So there's definitely a lot of good value going into tomorrow. If you go through the Nasdaq 100, again, I trade primarily high beta mega cap stocks. I really don't care about anything else in the market. But if you go through, if you are a technology trader like I am and you go through the charts, you'll see a lot of names that are resembling a setup like Nvidia, resembling a setup like Google, resembling a setup like Microsoft. And I think there you can get a lot of value if we get that day to watch. So far, 2024 has not given us the day to watch. And you can see it here just off the charts, right? Look at the last couple of times we closed into weakness. Here we closed into weakness. Next day we gapped up. Here we closed into weakness. Next gig gapped up. So this is the first close into weakness. Now let's see if there is a day two. After the close, Qualcomm came out with earnings. The initial pop was sold. The initial pop was sold. Initially, it popped about $5, $6. And then, well, then it got sold. Despite a pretty decent quarter, the initial pop-up on the semiconductors were positive. And now they're starting to come back in, come back down to earth. But the key today was basically an appetizer to tomorrow's main course. Tomorrow's main course, guys, we have Apple, right? We have Apple. They cut their iPhone sales. Tomorrow we have Meta that's been on an absolutely phenomenal run, which, by the way, again, if it does lose its five-day moving average, well, this is the 10-day moving average tomorrow. Again, this is one of those names ahead of its earnings. Maybe we could get a trade to the downside as well. We have Meta tomorrow. You have Apple tomorrow. And you have Amazon. You use Amazon. I use Amazon. If something is not being delivered at least three times to my house, it could be a toilet paper, for God's sake. I don't know, right? Something's wrong in the universe. So, Amazon, Apple, and Meta tomorrow for the main course to end the week. If tomorrow is going to be anything like today, boy, oh, boy, today was incredibly aggressive, guys. The first part of the morning, we were shorting into supply. We were shorting into supply. As you can imagine, there's not going to be a million setups when you're shorting into supply. It's just a reactionary trade, literally stocks that are coming off the bottom channels into supply and they start coming in. So, Google. Google, we actually shorted. I shorted Google in the 4290s and then it lost its natural pivot 4270. Google got hit. Google got hit despite pretty decent earnings. It got hit. And here's the 60-minute supply. Here's what I want to show you. So, here's the 60-minute supply. You see this whole area here? Oops, hold on. Wrong one. There you go. I knew it looked a little weird. So, here's the 60-minute supply. Here's the 60-minute supply. It got hit right at the top of the channel and clear fade. Again, that's where we talk about understanding and knowing your supply zone. So, beautiful fade on Google, traded down into the 140s and it closed at the low of the day. Again, beautiful move. I'm still watching this thing for tomorrow. Microsoft got destroyed. Got absolutely destroyed. Congratulations for all you guys who caught Microsoft 40645 if it builds below it can flush. Softy right now is literally $10 from the pivot. It is trading in the 39690s. But again, if this thing confirms tomorrow's channel, we have more room down. DWAC. Again, for all you guys who love this stuff, right? Love this stuff. $39.50. Gave a trade. Definitely gave a trade today. $39.50 needs to build. DWAC. It took out the $39.50. It went all the way up to $42.25. A nice move there as well. Starbucks never got to the pre-market highs. It was actually sold. It was sold into earnings. Sold into earnings. Carvana and Google Air is Google I closed out. And that's it. So let's see what we get tomorrow. I am in a perfect world. I am hoping for a gap up tomorrow. Stuff into supply and roll over. Start taking down today's ranges. And let's see if we get a day to wash. Again, so far we have not accomplished that in 2024. But as they say, there's a first time for everything. Guys, God bless. Just a reminder, tomorrow is Thursday. It's my usual night off. So tomorrow's earnings and reactions to earnings we will cover on the weekend update. If you are planning to join us in the live webinar tomorrow, then yes, we will be covering it a lot in detail throughout the day. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great night. Have an awesome trading day tomorrow. God's help us see on the field.