 Okay, we're back. We're live here on a given Wednesday at noon with we calling it now Coronaville. What's next? Because we want to look forward in this program rather than back. We want to connect the dots going forward, not necessarily back. Okay, and around the screen Cynthia Sinclair, Stephanie Dalton, and Winston Welch. Welcome to the show you guys. Hello. So let's talk about you know what is happening now and what strikes you about about the disease and my first question is what you know what have we learned over the past few days? What are the revelations that make you feel worse about the disease? Are you more scared? Are there things that are more threatening? Who wants to go for Stephanie? You like to go first. I'm terrified by what I've seen on the videos visiting the wards, the COVID-19 wards in the hospitals around the nation. They even gone to rural hospitals, not just New York City. And then the interviews with the nurses and the medical people. This is something we don't want to get. We do not want to get this. You're probably referring to at least in part the doctor in New York who committed suicide because it was too stressful. And I think we're going to see more of that. It's very stressful. The media shows us how stressful it is. Cynthia, what about you? What has been more threatening these days about the disease? Well all the people that are calling into the poison control centers. They're trying to ingest some kind of disinfectant. If you can even find it on the shelves anywhere. But you can't be doing things like that. And Trump keeps telling people to do things like that. And I don't know if he realizes what an impact his words have. And if he does- Well, but it's not just Trump, Cynthia. We got a lot of misinformation and disinformation. I was telling you guys before the show began. I got this really horrible video this morning, a link that somebody sent me, demeaning Dr. Fauci. And so you have this information on all sides of this thing. People spreading conspiratorial rumors. People telling you about drugs that have no basis in science. And you know it's very scary. What do you do? And there's no easy handle on it as to the medicine or as to the steps to take. So Winston, let me turn it around for you. What are the good things that we've seen in the past few days? Where are we now? Is there anything out there that encourages you that progress is being made with respect to dealing with this virus, responding to this virus? I mean, there's the old adage where you focus on grows, which is true. But it doesn't mean that the other stuff isn't out there one way or another. So just because training doesn't mean that's not good for the plants. I've been heartened just by having a little bit more information out there overall as actual information. So the more we know, I think that can calm us down a little bit that says, okay, you're probably not going to get this by opening your mail. You know, these little snippets that come here and there in between. Is that true? Is that true? I'm not sure that's true. So many handled your mail who had the virus and he shed viral particles, virions is the name. On the mail, it's going to be on that envelope, that paper for several hours at the least. I think what they're going to find is that it's easier to get in some ways and harder and others. And there's other things out there where it said, why is this, why is it so virulent in some places and not in others? And they found 30 different strains of this virus already. Some are shedding 270 times as many viral particles. So some people may get a very weak version of this disease. Others might get a stronger version. I think more information that's true and correct, that's science based is going to help us a lot. I'm also appartent by all of this. There's an example, Winston. Well, like that, the study that shows that this is mutated into 30 strains or that the number of cases that are reported in places where we have proper reporting have come down like here in Hawaii. We're at one or two new cases a year. I'm sorry. Remember, wasn't there a study released out of California and completely debunked this week? It was a study that was threatening about the number of cases and it was debunked. It was not true. It was not faithful to medical or statistical or survey principles. It was very scary, but it wasn't true. Like science means you can replicate the data and that it's verifiable in another way. Mark Twain said there's liars, big liars and statisticians. You've got to sit through, you've got to figure out what's real, but I'm heartened by a lot of people, ordinary good people doing good things. Food banks being set up, alternative systems, people checking on their neighbors, corporations and cities stepping up in ways that are showing our true humanity and finding our goodness inside. We have a lot of examples of other things. It doesn't make the news so readily, but for every case where you find something that's terrible and awful, there's a lot of good stuff out there happening too and you don't have to look that hard to find it. So Stephanie, is Winston looking at this through rose-colored glasses because actually what's happening is the White House and the administration and Trump, they're confusing people and a lot of people, even people toward the base are losing confidence in the ability of the government to come up with one collaborative voice and do stuff, any stuff. We had a discussion the other day with, yesterday with our correspondent in Brussels and we talked about an article that was written for the Irish Times by an Irish political writer and the notion of the article was in the past, countries around the world have loved America, they've feared America, they've held America in awe, now they pity America because it's obvious to everyone who reads or everyone who thinks around the world that we are worthy of pity having a federal administration that does not know which end is up. So I mean, Winston, you're always optimistic. Not always, you caught me on a good day and I think little rose-colored glasses help these times. One day at a time, you know. Stephanie, what do you think? Well, I certainly value the rose-colored glasses that Winston wears. It's always good to have that among the multiple perspectives but the fact of the matter is that Fox is doing its part along with those other shows that proliferate in the conservative cycles. We're disparaging, they're disparaging all of the scientific findings and all of the value of the work. It's kind of the sort of thing, well, you're not a doctor, well then just because you didn't want to go to med school, you know, they have no clear, and Jay, you didn't, what would you have to go to law school for? You know that really? Well, what do you know any more about this than I do? It's kind of like this anti-intellectualism, I mean the Mao program, okay? So anybody that's gotten the education or expertise is of no use to anybody. Well, I think this is settling in, don't you? People are starting to realize that in large numbers, including overseas and they have the clarity of distance, you know, and when they say they pity us, it really hurts me to say that, you know, this was according to all that I know until recently, the greatest country in the world and now we have people who pity us because we simply can't get our act together in times of crisis. Cynthia, where are you on this? Are you in the rose-colored glasses department or they're not so rose-colored glasses department? I do have one good little snippet of something that came from Dr. Fauci this morning. A new Remdesivir study that has come through and shows very much promise. Remdesivir, if you don't know, was an antiviral drug that was created for the Ebola virus. So at any rate, I've got the numbers and everything for the mortality rate. With Remdesivir, it was 8% and with the placebo, it was 11%. So it's not a big gap, but it's enough. And then for the duration of the illness, the Remdesivir folks were at it for 11 days and the placebo people had it for 15 days. So it's looking like maybe it might shorten the virus. You know, it's one of many. I mean, I'm sure Winston, you've heard of a lot of drugs and sort of third-party stories of drugs that are under consideration. And I'm not talking about Lysol here. I'm talking about real drugs. I'm talking about drugs that, for example, the Japanese are researching, the Europeans are researching. And by the way, it's not clear to me that there's American collaboration in each case. I think some of these drugs are being, you know, researched in their country or in other countries other than the US. In any event, we keep hearing stories about variances. There's Avagan in Japan. There's a number of vaccines. I saw yesterday that there's a number of vaccines under consideration right now and that they're beginning trials in May or June. That's pretty quick on some of those vaccines. Gee whiz. I mean, this could make you optimistic. I'm not sure if it's, you know, it's ripe yet. But just thinking about the possibilities could make you, what have you heard about this? How do you feel about this? Well, I mean, these pharmaceutical companies are all kind of connected. So whether or not it's happening in Japan is probably owned by an American company that's based in Switzerland. So, you know, I think that it's actually by Fujifilm. By Fujifilm, yeah. And assets were maybe a potential. You know, we got to, again, science has to come in here of something that's replicable, but we'll take what we can get. And there will be different results depending on where it is. But we're a very resilient species. We're resilient peoples in this country. I mean, I am bully on America. I've been tested, honestly, this year, but there are hundreds of millions of wonderful people in this country that are putting their thinking caps on. They're opening up their hearts. And we will get through this together. You know, but you raise an interesting point Winston. It's the notion of false confidence. If we do something too early, you know, if we say, oh, this drug works, if we do a shortcut trial, for example, it's why the FDA traditionally has been so concerned about, you know, full tilt trials. If we do it too quick, and people get sick and die, not because of the disease or the efficacy of the drug, but because the drug kills them, then you're going to have a loss of public confidence in the whole bloody system. This is a great concern. Of course, if there's a lack of efficacy, that would be bad too. But if people die as a result of the drug itself, they're not going to take the next drug. They're not going to have any confidence in the system. This is very detrimental to public confidence and thus to our democracy. So, you know, it's very important the government does does the right thing. I'm not sure that right now I have a lot of, if the government said Remdesvir is great, try it. If Trump got up in the Rose Garden and said, try it, we'd love it. I wouldn't take it. Sorry. Not unless I had no other options at all. In vaccines, there are a number of them in the market. I mean, in trials, not on the market. No, no, not on the market. Well, you know, it's got to be right. It can't, you know, we've already had our confidence tested. Well, and that's it, Jay. I think we're getting this rolled out in little tiny bits. You hear, we were extended our quarantine until the end of May in Hawaii. And you hear this, you know, Dr. Birx or Dr. Fauci or the CDC said, you know, we're pretty going to much be social distancing for the foreseeable future, at least till the end of the year. Colorado schools, they called off school till the end of the calendar year. So it's dripping and dropping because you can't tell people all of a sudden, hey, you're not going to be able to see your friends and happy bridge parties for a year. They don't want to hear that. And it's too much information. But as it comes out and we get used to it and we find alternative ways of being together like this. Yeah, I want to go back to that confidence thing. Okay. Up till now, and I didn't major in American history, but I did minor in American history in college. And, you know, I thought Rosie the Riveter was a moment in history. And I think of Rosie the Riveter, you know, putting off B124 bombers every few hours on the assembly line somewhere in Michigan, Michigan, remember Michigan. So, you know, the problem is if we can do a B124 in a matter of hours, how come we can't do a fringing mask? A mask. It's not complicated. There are no, you can quote me on this, there are no electronics in a mask. It's easy. And yet we have people in the sewing circles making masks. We can't seem to do that. Nor can we do testing. They have testing, you know, all over the world they have testing. We are behind this great country of ours is behind on testing. Not only that, but we lie about it. So, does this give you confidence, Stephanie? I'm absolutely, you know, I'm just in pieces about the whole thing. First of all, it's all about they're not wanting to know anything. So they don't want to know the number. So that's the testing. That's the testing impediment. Never wanted to know about it. Don't want to know how bad it's going to be because of nothing but bad news. And then they don't want to disrupt the economy by using that particular act because they don't want to get anybody in a mess and cut back on their productivity and income or even for a minute. So there's that problem. Well, that's the biggest problem of all, Stephanie. And I want to turn to Cynthia on that problem. Okay, we have to start the economy. Do we actually, I think the idea came from Trump himself. And then we have this ying and the yang thing back and forth upside down about and the most recent statement is, I am not going to extend my guidelines for the end of the shutdown. In other words, we're in reopening now. I'm not giving you any guidelines for the end of the reopening. It's a free for all, just like it is in buying and selling PPE. It's a free for all you guys do what you want. I'm not limiting you. And so this is a, well, is it of concern that we now have a situation where the president who has been on both sides of this issue, you never know when a given day what he's going to say is now saying, I am not going to limit you from reopening. Go for it, boys. I think it's terrifying that he's doing that. But by the same token, all these states that we're going to open up, none of them met that 14 day downward trajectory that was part of those guidelines. So all these red states that we're going to open anyway would have been in trouble and would have been going against what the federal government was required. So in order to remove that is why he said he's not going to. Right. I agree with you. So Winston, you know, here we are in the reopening and there's great concern about the reopening creating a second wave. What are your thoughts about that? Are you concerned about that? Do you have a solution for it? I don't have a solution for anything. Just stay calm, be nice, be kind, share aloha, and not the virus. When you go out, you can really only control your own actions at this point, and you can have some influence on other people. You know, when you are out, wear your mask. That's a basic thing. Wash your hands. These are, this is not rocket science. You mean we shouldn't stop doing that? No, we should have never not been doing it. Do you think the people in Michigan will continue to do it? You know what, the people in Michigan are going to be the people in Michigan, and we just got to do what we can do for ourselves. It's up to some individual responsibility here. Good leadership will float to the top, and we can compare states right now. We can compare our countries right now. What was different about state A versus state B, city A versus city B? We have different models right now, and so that's going to help us as we go into phase 2, 3, 4. I don't even know if we're going to talk about waves over time. This thing's going to be around until the end of days, so we're going to learn to live with this virus. Eventually it will weaken or we'll get vaccinated or something, but for right now, we just got to say, okay, we're here, we're with it. How are we going to best deal with it and continue on with as normal lives as possible? Yeah, absolutely, and every state can look at it in its own way, but I'd like to add a point, though. In state A, let's call that a red state. In state A, they're not too concerned about hand-washing and social distancing and all that, and they think everybody ought to reopen. I mean, it goes further than the barber, the tattoo parlor and all that, and everybody ought to reopen. Let's get this economy going, okay? And they have called it a second wave or a resumption of the first wave or a continuation toward the apex, whatever, okay? But you can get on an airplane in state A, and you can go to state B, which has been very good. And state B is not a red state. State B has taken the discipline. State B has flattened the curve. And my concern, Winston, is that if state A goes wildfire, second wave or otherwise, then state B is going to catch it. We live in a country with a constitution, requires free commerce among the states. Doesn't that affect the whole country? Well, we've got to shut down here right now, Jay. If you're coming into Hawaii, the hundred people who are actually coming here for vacation every day, effectively interstate commerce, while there's ships becoming and bringing stuff, our main imports or export of tourism is it's shut down. Other states we see have shut down if you're coming from, I mean, they were going door to door on Rhode Island for people with a New York license plate, people coming up from Florida or Texas, they're effective if you're coming from Louisiana to Texas, they're stopping you. Eventually what will happen is we will get, everyone who wants to come to this state, for example, gets tested before they get on the plane, they get tested after they come off the plane, and they get tested within, you know, three days of arrival. Eventually is the right word. There was an MSNBC last night, there was some official from the Flight Attendance Union. And she was saying in this country with very few exceptions, I think there was only one exception, JetBlue. Sorry. There was only one exception, JetBlue. You can get on a plane without a mask, you can fly the flight without a mask, and furthermore, the stewardesses, the flight attendants are not required to wear masks. By the end of the travel change, end of the week, everyone will wear a mask on every flight every time. I think that's a good prediction, Winston. But you know, Stephanie, you were talking before about second wave and all that, and in the second wave in 1819, can you talk about that? I mean, is the second wave different in some way than the first wave? Yeah. Yeah. You know what? It's not two waves. There were three waves. Okay. And I've been reading these articles out of the CDC and in the scholarly reference here. Get this. In 1920s, the estimate of the deaths was in the vicinity of 21.5 million people died. Okay. And another, and lately, there's a higher estimate of the reworking of the data. And of course, there was much missing data than we're talking a long time ago, that now the figure is ranging between 24 to 39 million people dead in three waves of that epidemic and a pandemic. And the third one didn't hit the U.S. as much as it hit other places. Well, but that was then. That was then. That was 100 years ago. And what did people know about social distancing then, Stephanie? Well, we only have the scientific method now. I'll answer the question for you. They did know about social distancing. And they tried to do that then and they had masks then. That's all they had. But we also have the scientific method really worked up good. And that's what the world's waiting for is our capacity to do that work at that level that gets us what we need to not have 40 million people dead by the time this is over. And we're talking about only a couple of years. And so, I mean, that is a far cry from what we've got now. We're at 1 million and we've gotten there really fast. And I don't want to be the gym stay girl, but hey, this is just startling that it was that high. It was that. Cynthia, I want to talk about the effect of a second wave. So if you start right now today, you have a lack of confidence in the government. I mean, I think most people do and more and more people are developing that lack of confidence every day. And you're not sure about the science and whether the science is actually going to get to us. And it's going to work for billions of people because it's got to work around the world, not just in Oahu. It can work everywhere. So the question I put to you is, how are people going to feel about reopening the economy if we try now and then have a second wave or an increase later? They're going to have a reaction to that. They're going to say, gee, didn't we just do this and it didn't work? And now I'm more, what are they going to say? Well, there's a lot of people right now that are saying this will happen. So don't open because it's just going to be everywhere. And once it does happen, hopefully, right, the people that aren't being careful that are falling that are falling for all this misinformation, that I hate to say it mainly red states that want to follow Trump's sort of kool-aid logic, I don't know if they will ever change their mind. I don't know if they'll ever come around to the science of this. Whereas the other people, we already know that it's not a good idea. So all we can do is hope that these other people, when they see the numbers provided we get the numbers because the lack of testing. Well, what I'm talking about though is the economy. Right now we have a, you know, in my heart, and I think in all of our hearts, we're looking forward to reopening. We're looking forward to go to the barbershop and walk around and do business. I don't need a barbershop. I want to put that clear right now. I have a little thing that I can lend it to you. So, but the point is, you know, in my heart, in all of our hearts, we want to go back to an ordinary, you know, commercial life and get the things that we need to feel, you know, that we're in charge of our lives. And we're limited to that. And I think we all want to go back to that. And the question is, you know, do we go back to that? How much control do we put on this? We're all happy because, you know, we haven't been sick. But how much control do we put on it to avoid? So Winston, I mean, I'm the Grinch and you're more optimistic about it. Are people going to lose confidence the second time so that they are so afraid that the economy never really opens up? Now, we'll, we will open up. We'll figure out how to do it and we'll figure out how to do it well. We're going to look at states like Hawaii, which will open up properly and correctly. And then there'll be some slip up where they let someone on the plane and they said, oh, well, we didn't test them or whatever. So, and they'll tamper down right away on that outbreak when it happens. It's going to happen. But then we'll learn something from it and we'll say, okay, you're not coming on Hawaii on a plane here until you get tested three days beforehand, then the day beforehand, and then one day after three days after, or whatever it is, we'll learn from that. And that will spread to factories. It'll spread to farms. It'll spread to the red states too, because those people by and large still immunize their kids against everything, mostly, you know, so it will spread. We'll get best practices. We do, we got to remain optimistic because the alternative is not good. It may be motivating, but we need to find what's working and promote that so that we have every advantage on our side. Yeah, so it's a, it's a balance, of course, and we have to use what we know. And, you know, we really do have to have food and we can't see the food chain, you know, dissolve the way it is in some places in the country. But at the same time, we have to have our health. It doesn't work. You can't enjoy life if you don't have life, so to speak. And so, you know, the question I put to you, Stephanie, is what's the balance and what's the priority? This is the big moral ethical question of our time. And it goes for all the red states and the blue states. What do you pay attention to first? Can you walk in true gum at the same time? And in what measures? And this is the last, this is your summary of the show. So be careful what you say. Well, I fear that people are going to be very, very angry as this thing starts to explode. And I think they're going to be angry and then they're going to be dying angry because there's nothing wrong with our government. There's nothing wrong with our expertise, our science. It's the people that are making the decisions in the government that are not allowing us to assume the role that we ordinarily would have taken, which was leading the world forward in this and unlocking all of our resources and talents and capacities on January 1 with a president or, you know, people making decisions that knew what they were doing. I am telling you, I am terrorized by those numbers. And I actually didn't know it was that high. But why is that not going to happen again? As soon as everybody goes out, what's going to happen to them? So unless we locked in, anyway, I don't know what the actual remedy is, but somebody needs to take a hold of this. Okay, wait, let me ask Winston. Winston, what is the remedy? Give us one minute of your solution to the balance and the priorities going forward. It's not going to get inside of a minute, but basically, you know, do what you can do. Control the controllables, whatever those are. That's what you can do. You can control your controllables. There's a lot that you can't control. It's just brought into more focus now than it used to be three months ago. But you still had a lot of uncontrollables three months ago. We just didn't talk about them as much. So control what you can control. Look out for each other. Share a lo-ha, especially with yourself, and then go out from there. Okay, Cynthia, I don't feel as fair unless you have a closing on this too. Go ahead. You know, and I know this is crazy because it comes from a very, very famous kids show, Frozen. I am frozen too. There's this saying that she has to live by. Take a deep breath, and then do the next thing. You do the next right thing. So take a big breath. Don't go, oh, I forgot about the first part. Don't get overwhelmed. Deep breath, then do the next right thing. That's perfect, Cynthia. That's perfect. And that's one of the reasons we renamed the show. Coronaville, what's next? Thank you, Cynthia. Thank you, Winston. Thank you, Stephanie. Great discussion. Will I see you next week? Yes, man. Thank you so much. Aloha.