 Two races in the books in the NASCAR Cup series return from the COVID-19 layoff and the next one coming up, the longest race of the entire year. It is a Memorial Day weekend tradition. The Coca-Cola 600 coming up on Sunday in Charlotte. And this is gonna be interesting logistically for this race because unlike the two races at Darlington, there will be qualifying on Sunday. And that's good and fun. It's nice to have a logical starting order, but it's going to throw a wrench in our plans from a scheduling perspective. We're gonna go through all that and strategies to the race and my favorite drivers in each salary tier for this weekend coming up in just a bit. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That is right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down the Coca-Cola 600 from a DFS perspective. And as we have this weird, funky, crazy calendar for NASCAR, we're gonna have a lot of podcasts here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. So make sure you are subscribed to that podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear, make sure you leave a rating and review as well because those do help us out a ton. We have a second Charlotte race coming up on Wednesday next week. We have Bristol next weekend. So we'll get you set for that as well. And then the NASCAR schedule continues. So a lot of podcasts coming your way. Make sure you are subscribed to get them right as they go live. Sunday's race, lock is at 6 p.m. We'll break down why that's important in just a bit. But first, Heat Check is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. They are just as excited as I am for Sunday's Champions for Charity Golf Match. He trained Tiger Woods and Tom Brady versus Phil Mickelson and Peyton Manning. And check this out. For new users, FanDuel is running an odds boost on the match. If you sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook right now, you can bet either duo at insane 10 to 1 odds. That is a $100 payout on a max bet of $10. If you are ready to claim your 10 to 1 odds and are located in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or Indiana, just download the FanDuel Sportsbook app and be sure to sign up with my promo code MATCH so they knew I sent you MATCH. That's FanDuel Sportsbook promo code MATCH must be 21 plus in present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana, first online wager only, must wager in designated offer markets, $10 minimum first deposit required, $100 max bonus, gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER in Indiana, call 1-800-9 with it. All right, let's take a look at the track breakdown here for the Coca-Cola 600 and there are two big things to break down here. Those two things are qualifying and the length of the race because those are the two things that do dictate the way we build the FS rosters and key for this one, it dictates when we build them. Let's start things off here with qualifying because qualifying is scheduled to start at 2 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. So four hours before the race, that means qualifying should be wrapped up at about 3 p.m. Eastern and that is when you will want to start filling out lineups and that brings us back to when lock is. Lock is at 6 p.m. on Sunday and that means you have just a three hour window to do lineups. You can do them beforehand and we will discuss a bit of why later on but the odds of something changes fairly dramatically in qualifying are pretty high. So optimally, I would try to hold off on filling out lineups until at least 3 p.m. Eastern. If you can't do that, it is totally understandable because it is Memorial Day weekend. So if you are able to do family time, I would understand the urge to do that. Totally, totally understand that. But it is optimal to try to fill out those lineups from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. For the perspective of making optimal lineups, you will want to be around in that window to do your lineups. Part of the reason qualifying is so important is because of the other issue we're talking about here and that is the length of this race. This is the longest race of the entire year, 600 miles. And on a one and a half mile track that translates to 400 laps, which gives us 40 points on FanDuel for LapSled. That is a massive number and it's basically like a short track from that perspective. And when we go to a short track in NASCAR DFS, we emphasize LapSled and it's going to be the exact same thing here. In the past, what makes this even more important is we've seen drivers take full advantage of that length and absolutely dominate this race. In 2016, Martin Truex Jr. led 392 out of 400 laps. He did not lead eight, that's nuts. That's 39.2 FanDuel points from LapSled alone. He outscored the field by like 38 points. Kyle Bush in 2018, 377 out of 400 laps. That's 37.7 FanDuel points. Truex also led 233 laps in 2017. If you didn't have those dominators in your lineup, you weren't cashing. It is as simple as that. So LapSled matter a ton at this track and we want to find drivers capable of running out front. It is a massive priority. But it's also worth noting that the only year where no driver, let it at least half the race in the past four years, was last year's race. That was also the only Charlotte race we have seen in this current rules package. The intent of this rules package, for those of you who are not super familiar with NASCAR, was to keep packs tighter and make passing easier on tracks just like Charlotte. And it's worked pretty well. If we look back to last year's Charlotte race, Truex led 116 laps, which was the most in the race. Kyle Bush led 79 and Brad Kozlowski led 76. So the distribution of LapSled was more flat. There was not one massive dominator. And I think what's also interesting about that race is that those drivers who led the laps didn't necessarily start up front. Bush did start third and he led all those laps, so that makes sense, but Truex started 14th, Brad Kozlowski started 21st. That is not unique to Charlotte. We have seen this often in races in this new package. We've had 11 races at one and a half mile tracks at this package since it started the last year or so, excluding last year's Atlanta race, where they had a modified version of the package. In those 11 races, there have been 14 drivers who have led at least 25% of the laps, which would equate to 100 laps in this race on Sunday. Of those 14 drivers, half of them started eighth or lower. And that does include two drivers who started outside the top 20. Denny Hamlin started 22nd in the playoff Kansas race, and he is the only driver who has led more than half the laps in this package. And he actually started 23rd in that race. So, this may have been one time where someone's led half the laps in this package at one of these tracks, and that guy started 23rd. So, we will definitely want to work hard to find drivers who can lead laps. They just don't have to start at the front of the pack to do so. Now, one strategy we have discussed in the past at short tracks is targeting drivers in waves. And what I mean by that is finding one driver who can lead laps early, and another who can lead laps late. So, hypothetical situation here. You love Martin Truex Jr., but he qualifies 20th. You still really want to use him. I think in that scenario where you use Truex, I would try to pair him with a driver starting higher in the order who can lead laps early on. You get yourself a wave one driver and a wave two driver. And that way, you can ideally have someone racking up upside while Truex is working his way through the pack. That is a wave approach, and something that I will do probably pretty often for Sunday's race. That is not universal, though. Let's say your two favorite drivers, two studs you want to use, both qualify really well. There is enough upside in the number of laps in this race to use both those drivers in the exact same lineup. So, technically, they would both be what I was calling before wave one drivers who could lead laps early on. And you will miss out on place differential upside. But I don't really care because there are so many laps to be led here. I would still happily go at those two and build from there. Basically, what we're saying is you have freedom. You can target drivers starting further back if they're, even if they're really expensive because they can still lead laps, I would just try to pair them with them at the front. But if they're at the front as well, it doesn't matter. So qualifying does matter a lot because we do want to get those wave drivers if we decide to attack it in that fashion. But truly, if you love a stud, you can use that individual driver no matter where they start. The other implication of this emphasis on laps led is that we're gonna have some top-heavy lineups. And those are more viable in this race than they would be in others. It does mean you'll have to rely on more value plays rather than mid-range plays. But if it allows you to get 30 or 40 points from laps led in your lineup, you should be willing to do exactly that. Now, equipment does matter here at Charlotte, so I would not go too extreme where you're just punting, but it is okay to be a little top-heavy if it gets you more upside via laps led. And there are some value plays with good equipment who could work here as well. As far as the value plays go, I would try to skew closer to the back for them. Looking back at last year's perfect lineup at Charlotte, there were three drivers with salaries under $8,500 in the perfect lineup. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was one of them. He started ninth, so at the front, and he finished fifth. And if you have that finishing upside and a driver that cheap, you should take it. We'll talk about several drivers today who I think could do that. But the other two value plays in the lineup started 22nd and 30th. It just gives you extra flexibility from a finishing perspective, which we should want. So in general, you want your value plays to come from further back, but there will be some drivers who are cheap, who can work at the front, but I guess the assumption should be that your value plays will be drivers starting further back, unless you think a driver starting up front has the ability to finish there as well. All right, let's recap things here based on what we wanna do here for Charlotte. I would try to be around at 3 p.m. Eastern to edit lineups. You'll have a three hour window to do so after qualifying, try to take advantage of that time. I would also emphasize laps lead because they are crazy important with 400 laps being in this race. You can use drivers starting further back from your studs as long as you think they are fast enough to get up front and lead laps by the end of the race. And with how easy passing has been in this package, if they're fast, they'll be able to do so. It is also okay to be a little bit top heavy and maybe jam in two studs and then try to scramble from there. That is okay. And finally, look for place differential drivers or top 10 finishes at a value plays. You need to either place differential upside or the ability to get a top 10 if a driver doesn't check one of those boxes probably not someone you wanna use for this weekend. That wraps up the track breakdown. So let's go tear by tear and break down this thing over on FanDuel for this weekend. Starting off with Kyle Busch, he is $14,000 through Chase Elliott at 11.5 in that elite tier. This tier is both Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. And as you heard in the discussion around laps lead, those two guys have mopped up at Charlotte. But the Joe Gibbs racing cars haven't been as good to open the season. And I say that acknowledging that they did finish one, two on Wednesday night. Busch finished second at Darlington, Denny Hamlin won. But Busch's average running position in that race was 14th, he was 18th in the first Darlington race. Truex was better than that. And he's been better than Busch all year long. So between these two, I'm gonna rank Martin Truex Jr. higher, especially when you consider he is a little bit cheaper. But I also don't view those drivers as must have plays. And from a betting perspective, I really don't wanna dive in there. I think that for DFS, Kevin Harvick is at least on their level. And I'd probably rank Harvick higher straight up, especially once you account for a salary. So I don't think you need to avoid Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. if you think I'm an idiot. But my guess is that people will be super into them due to track history. And I will probably want to blower than consensus on those guys. Now moving on elsewhere in this tier, it is always good to make sure we are not overreacting to recent races. And sometimes drivers just have good races. They have good cars, good circumstances. That can lead to good finishes, even if it's not projectable going forward. But the sample on Alex Bowman, being a contender in the Cup Series is growing. And I adore him for this race. Bowman actually ranks second in my model, entering the weekend. The only guy who is better than him is Martin Truex Jr. And Truex is legitimately five one hundredths of a place better than Bowman in my model. It does not get a lot closer than that. Truex edging out Alex Bowman. Bowman has had a top five, or a top eight average running position in four of the past five races this year. At Charlotte's specifically, Bowman has finished in the top 10 each of the past two years. He has had a top 10 average running position in both times. And Hendricks speed now is better than it was for those two races. So we should expect a better performance this time around for Alex Bowman. What this all translates to, combining the current form with the track history is, I think Bowman can win, which means he is very in play for DFS, no matter where he starts. And I think he's very much in line with the other drivers in the salary tier. Alex Bowman does not have the name value of Hamlin, Logano, Keselowski, Elliot. But he has the performance of those guys right now. So to me, I think that Alex Bowman is a legitimate contender for a win. And I think he is a very good DFS play for Sunday. And he's in play no matter where he starts because of that race winning upside. I don't use this as being a lot of separation in this tier. I think that Bowman is sniffing in the same range as Harvick, Bush and Truex. And it's hard to poke holes in Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott with how good they were in Darlington. So if I had to rank this tier, I would go Kevin Harvick one, Alex Bowman two, Truex three, Elliot four. And then once you account for salary, I'd go Hamlin and Kyle Bush last. I am not out on Kyle Bush by any means. He's just really expensive and I'm not fully stalled on his speed yet. He also struggled in the playoffs last year. So before the championship race obviously, which he did win. So I think to me, I'm gonna be higher on Harvick and Bowman than the betting odds would say we should be in a little bit lower on Truex and Bush. Moving now to the second tier on Fandall, that is Joey Logano at $11,300 through William Byron at $10,000. And there are a lot of drivers in this tier who could lead laps without breaking the bank. And that's something we wanna find in these races that had a bunch of laps to be led. My favorite in this tier is Joey Logano at $11,300. He's also the most expensive. He's also won twice this year. So it's pretty boring to talk about why I like Joey Logano. So let's talk with the cheaper guys in this tier because they're all legitimate contenders to lead laps. Jimmy Johnson, $10,700 was not great in the second Darlington race, but we saw what he did in the first race. He also had a top 10 average running position in Las Vegas, which is the closest race to Charlotte we've had this year from a track configuration perspective. So Johnson works, but I would rank Ryan Blaine and William Byron ahead of him. Blaine struggles in Darlington, so it's not a huge shock that he wasn't that good the past two races. I'm not that worried about what he did there. He had though an eighth place average running position last year at Charlotte. He was also on the verge of winning in Las Vegas this year. He had a fourth place average running position there. So I like Blaine for DFS a lot at 10-2, but I also think he's a pretty awesome win bet at 26-1, and it's a cheap salary for Blaine, so I'm in on him for sure. As for Byron, Vegas is a pretty key piece for liking him as well. He had an eighth place average running position there. He is the cheapest driver who had a top 10 mark in that race by a pretty decent margin. Actually, I guess Blaine was there too at 10-2, but to be in the top eight at this salary, pretty intriguing. Byron, like Blaine as well, had an eighth place average running position last year in Charlotte, finished ninth there. So this tier is all good if you want some cheaper sources of laps led. If I am ranking them before qualifying, I would go Lugano first, Brad Kozolowski second, and then we'll go Blaine, Byron, and Johnson in that exact order. The middle tier on Fandle is Kurt Busch at $9,600 through Matt Kenseth at 8,000, and this is another spot where you could get some cheaper lap leaders in the 9,000 range specifically. Kurt Busch, really fast in Darlington, Eric Jones had a top 10 average running position in both those races, and he's also really good at the high bank to one and a half mile tracks, which is what Charlotte is. Jones has five straight top 10s. He has three top fives in Texas. He was also seventh in Atlanta this year. So this is a really good track type for Eric Jones. So Jones, if he starts well, could be a contender to lead laps. And if he starts poorly, he'll be a place differential guy. So Eric Jones at $9,000, a pretty good play, and someone I'd consider regardless of where he starts, tournament if he starts to the front, and a cash game potential play if he starts further back. Eric Galmarola is in this middle tier on Fandle, and I think that he's really interesting at $8,300. I am worried that he'll qualify well because Stuart Haas Racing has speed at this track type. But I think that Al Marola may actually have enough finishing Jews to be worth it no matter where he qualifies. He has had a top 10 average running position in the past or three of the past four races. And he has also finished in the top 10 in each of those good runs. So good runs paired with good finishes is a good combination for Eric Galmarola. But more importantly, he and this team were really impressive last year in Texas. Al Marola actually finished that race in second. He had a fourth place average running position. So ran good the entire race, converted into a runner-up finish. He also had a ninth place average running position here at Charlotte with Stuart Haas Racing in 2018. So Eric Galmarola has speed. He's been really good recently. So even if he qualifies up front, I don't think we should cross him off just because he still has, within his range of outcomes, to get a top 10 or top five finish. And if he gets a top five finish for $8,300, he's probably gonna be in the perfect lineup. This same line of thinking does apply here to Clint Boyer as well at $8,500 and the same equipment. But these guys will be risky if they qualify well, which means they're tournament only options. But I am very okay using them in tournaments, even if that does happen because the finishing potential is really good. I think this is a flawed part of my model, but it has Eric Galmarola in fifth in the model. I think it's flawed. I would not rank in there personally. It doesn't account enough for upside, I don't think, because that's the concern with Almerola, but I think that he is a legitimate contender for a top five here, which means he can be in play for DFS no matter where he starts. Finally, I do think that Matt Kenseth is interesting. I would need him to qualify poorly though to get there, unlike Almerola and Boyer. Kenseth very much exceeded my expectations in Darlington. He finished 11th in that race and he did have issues in the second race of Darlington, so that one wasn't as good, but this is also a track where the car will matter a bit more. And Kenseth is $1,600 cheaper than his teammate, Kurt Busch, who is in similar equipment. Kyle Larson was able to elevate this car in the past. So we know it is capable of competing for wins. I don't think Kenseth can necessarily elevate it the way Larson did, probably not even as much as Busch did because he's older, but he can make it work for $8,000. So if Kenseth qualifies in the middle of the pack, I'll be okay going his way because I think that a 10th-ish finish is something that he could do with this equipment. This tier for me is Eric Jones first, Kurt Busch second, Eric Almerola third, Clint Boyer fourth, and Matt Kenseth fifth. If any of those five drivers slip and qualify though, they will be good options and at least Jones, Busch, and Almerola could be contrarian tournament plays if they happen to qualify well. Moving down to the value tier on FanDuel, that is Matt Di Benedetto at $7,300, through Cole Custer at $6,200. If you are a regular listener on this podcast, you know I think that Matt Di Benedetto is underpriced, but he's been also converted. He's been coming through at those low salaries. He has had a top 14 average running position and a top 14 finish in every non-daytona race so far this year. And for some context on that, I really do dig Tyler Redick at $6,800. We're gonna talk more about him in a second. But Di Benedetto has had an equal or better average running position than Redick in every non-daytona race so far this year. So, Redick is really good, Di Benedetto's better. And his betting odds are longer than Redick's. I would rather go Redick there. Di Benedetto could very easily qualify well because he's in that Penske equipment, but I think he's in that Ricky Stena's junior mold from last year, where he could be in play even if he does do exactly that. I mentioned in the two RCR cars mentioned Redick before, he's one of them. Other one is Austin Dillon based on the speed I would expect them to have here. RCR cars were always fast on this track type last year. The problem is that they would qualify themselves out of consideration for a DFS. But before considering qualifying, there is a lot working in their favor. Dillon finished fourth in Las Vegas, the only other race at a one and a half mile track this year. He had a 13th place average running position in that race. He has had a top 14 average running position in three straight races at one and a half mile track. So, I dig that at $6,400. Looking at Tyler Redick, this track and this package don't necessarily fit Redick's strengths as well as Darlinton did. So, I wouldn't expect him necessarily to push for a win, but he was also running well in Las Vegas before he wrecked late. So, did it there in the same package? His salary is still super reasonable at $6,800. So, between the two, I'd rank Redick higher prior to qualifying, but I'd be cool with either of them if they were to qualify outside the top front of the pack knowing the speed they can't produce. I think the top tens are something we could discuss for those two drivers. At the lower end of this tier, we get to some drivers with good equipment. And in my view, Charlotte is a more equipment heavy track than Darlinton. And that means that I think drivers with good equipment here can be elevated due to the speed of the track. That makes me interested in Cole Custer at $6,200. And phrasing it that way is not a dig at Custer either. It could sound that way where I'm saying, hey, the equipment matters more than the driver here. It's not a dig. He's in his age 22 season. He got a top 10 finish in Phoenix this year. So, there is legitimate talent in Cole Custer. But he is going to get a boost with Stuart Haas racing equipment at a track like this. It's just flat out true. That's how it's going to happen. Custer was also good on tracks like this in the XINITY series. He won in Texas in 2018. He had runner-up finishes in Charlotte and Atlanta over the years too. So, it is a radically different package in the CUP series than what he had there. So, I'm not using that as the main justification for considering Cole Custer, but it doesn't hurt that he did well there. And when you consider how fast this car will likely be, there is plenty to like about the profile for Cole Custer. So, at $6,200, I'm really into him. I'm worried he'll qualify well, but especially if he does not qualify well, he is someone I will use a lot for Sunday's race. Prior to qualifying raking this tier, Matt DiBenedetto pretty easily my top option here. I'll go Redick second, Ryan Newman third, because I think that he has good ability to get a top 10, whereas Redick may have a bit more upside. Cole Custer will be fourth, Chris Bushar is fifth, and then Austin Dillon is sixth. I am not in on Ricky Senes Jr. I know his betting odds on Fandall Sportsbook are very short. I don't think they should be. He has good history at this track. I don't care. I'm not really into him unless he qualifies poorly. Just kind of that's the way things are. The punting tier on Fandall is Christopher Bell at $6,000 on down, and Bell did run well in Darlington. He had a top 20 average running position in both races. The problem is I am very skeptical of his equipment at this track and whether it can keep up. His three best races so far this year have all been at more driver-heavy tracks, and Charlotte isn't that as much as Darlington and Phoenix are. I will rank Bell tops of the punting tier from $6,000 on down, but I'm not overly enthusiastic about grabbing him. Two guys down here who I think could do it for me are Ty Dillon and Ryan Priest. Dillon has RCR equipment, effectively. He's a sister team to his brother Austin Dillon and Tyler Redick, so I expect them to be fast. Dillon had a 20th place average running position in Las Vegas. That's pretty good for $5,000. As for Ryan Priest, he is Stenhouse's teammate, and according to the numbers from David Smith at Motorsports Analytics, Priest was an elite passer on this track type last year. Priest and Stenhouse showed the equipment was not a complete dud in Las Vegas. Chris Buscher, when he was driving for this team last year, finished sixth with this team. He had four total top tens at one and a half mile tracks, so they can get the job done, and Priest is only $4,500, especially if he qualifies poorly. I will be going there to squeeze him more upside the top end of my roster. Ryan Priest is the guy you can turn to, especially if he qualifies poorly if you want to go super top heavy. I'm not expecting a top 10 finish, but I think he's a good driver. I think he's got some juice in this car too, so Ryan Priest at 45 easily my favorite of the guys probably below Custer at $6,200. All right, let's finish up here with the picks to win for this weekend. Again, one driver above $10,000, one driver below it on FanDuel. My pick above $10,000, I gotta go with what the model says. And it could be Martin Truex Jr., but again, that's super boring, so I'm technically not going with what the model says, but I'm gonna go on Alex Bowman. Again, he's right behind Truex. He was really good in Las Vegas, really good in Fontana, awesome in Darlington, so I think he's got a good shot to win. My model's been high on Bowman. This'll be the fourth time it's been high on him. He's won two of those races. He finished 14th in the other. I would lean more towards the winning side here on Sunday. As far as the pick below $10,000, again, I don't agree with my model putting Eric Almerola in fifth, but I can't ignore it completely. He's been really good this year. He had a seventh place average running position in Darlington. He had a fourth place average running position in Texas last year. He's got good equipment. Crazy things can happen in a 600 mile race, so I will go Eric Almerola as my pick below $10,000. So Alex Bowman, Eric Almerola, my picks to win for this weekend in Charlotte. That is all that we have for the Sunday edition of this podcast, but again, back next week to break down Wednesday's Charlotte race, and then again, to discuss Bristol, which is coming up the following Sunday. So make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, the Google Play Store. If you name it, you can find us there, and please leave a rating and review while you're there as well. If you have any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fan into a Podcast Network at Fan into a Podcast. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for the video side of things for here today and always. Thank you, Cal, and thank you to everyone for tuning in, and hopefully you have some good luck with your roster some Sunday, and enjoy hopefully a safe and fun Memorial Day weekend. We'll talk to you all early next week. 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