 Hello and welcome to the CMC markets market webinar with myself market analyst David Nadal Today's date is Monday the 2nd of October and the time is 12 15 as always with our webinars I will just leave the risk warning up on the screen for you guys to have a read of it It basically says Whatever is whatever I state in this webinar. It's just is it's not to be construed as explicit investment advice or trading advice or trading strategies This is just purely some observations and some personal opinions of mine and some commentary on what's going on in the news and also Discussing the discussion about what may or may not happen in some of the big markets that we're going to be looking at Also by a by you guys reading through this this risk warning disclaimer It also keep our compliance department very very happy It's just a necessary part of the business, but that just is how it goes It'll be the same rundown as always for the webinar. So I conduct every single Monday at 12 15 whereby we take a quick discussion about what happened over the over the last say 72 hours since Friday's closed in London and then also we talk about the you have a brief look at the week ahead the big corporate and Economic events on the on the week ahead and then we run through the major markets the major indices and some of the some of the commodities currency pairs What have you and as always if there any markets are having a covered being free to just mention in the chat box And we will then go on from and we happily have take a look at the market from there So this is the this is just the platform what we can see here is With the exception of Spain, we've already seen a positive risk on day for the equity markets in Europe The footsie is out of two and a half three week high Whereas the the DAX and the CAC in France are at multi-month highs both that about kind of three month highs Maybe just a bit more than three month highs The Italian market is pushed higher as well, but but the Spanish market I'm sure yeah, you've seen the news over the weekend on the back of the catholic Catalonian chaos the referendum that was held in in the Catalonian region in the region of Catalonia in Spain yesterday There was some quite There was some quite horrific scenes coming out of that some heavy handed Police brutality, I think a lot of viewers around the world were shocked and disgusted By what was in some cases what we've seen over the week of the weekends and the heightened tensions that we did see In Catalonia yesterday Has really has really spooked the markets as the Spanish market the Spain 35 Ibex 35 index is down well over 1% today Considering that when you take a look at how the some some of the major European markets are doing as I mentioned The footsie is at a you know here a three week high pushing higher and the CAC The DAX are at multi-month highs and there you have the Spanish market languishing in kind of last place of all the kind of major markets That has kind of been kind of the really big news over the weekend Today is a public holiday in China both over the weekend. We did have both manufacturing and also non-manufacturing data out of China which both showed increases both readings are both Increases and improvements on the previous month reading so all the Chinese manufacturing and non manufacturing sectors are Expand are growing at a quicker rate and they were only last on the previous for the previous reading So we've all seen on the back of that In turn on the back of that is higher copper prices and in turn the usual players Plank or Anglo-American real tint or be she built it using by the companies They've also been in fairly positive territory and the back of that Over the weekend over the weekend Theresa May announced addition additional 10 billion pounds or the health to buy scheme So property companies such as persimmon Taylor Wimpy And then you have you have Barclay development Red row all those sort of major players Have the big home builders listed on the stock exchange have also done quite well out of that stocks like Stocks like per persimmon have actually traded at an all-time high today on the back of that Looking taking a look at some of the economic data. We've had a mixed enough Manufacturing numbers of the eurozone Germany is probably the only kind of the kind of class of euros or numbers Germany saw and the increase In the expansion rate where as Italy France and Spain were actually kind of old kind of actually if anything kind of muted to Actually, maybe a slight deceleration in growth We also saw a slight deceleration in the growth rate of the British manufacturing sector as well So I said so that's real cake pound versus a dollar was already kind of losing a bit of ground Overnight on the current of the strong green back. So and then when we had a base on the UK Manufacturing P9 numbers it just kind of slightly accelerated the sell-off Taking a look at the week ahead. I'm sure if you're regular regular personally regular Subscriber to these podcasts, you know where they are But if you don't if you go to our home page and then under the news and analysis section click on news analysis This is updated several times a day This is the the main news and articles myself I'm like and the other analysts a CMC in the English-speaking world Published on this site some of our articles because gets published here others get published on inside Who's it's on our training platform, which I'll show you later on, but we also what we do is every Friday There will be a week ahead article which gets posted to the website So we're set here filter by click on topic and third one down weekly outlook Click on the weekly outlook here, and it gives you a rundown about the major corporate and economic stories for the week ahead of us so looking at we have the we have a Interest rate decision from the from the Reserve Bank of Australia or be a tomorrow Looking ahead to Wednesday and bearing in mind the strength of the Australian dollar could be something Which potentially curtail growth rate in Australia? So the consensus is for the or be a to keep rates that hold a one point one point five percent And obviously the Reserve Bank of Australia. It's sort of in their interest to keep their currency As well a bit softer if they can because the Aussie dollar has to do fairly well recently a strong currency Couldn't have actually curtailing their growth Looking to Wednesday as I mentioned at the top of the show. We have the manufacturing numbers from China from the Eurozone in the UK today We're gonna have a plethora of service matter service PMI reports coming out on Wednesday So keep an eye on that We have numbers coming out from from Tesco the big UK retailer on Wednesday And also we have their numbers coming off on the US drinks company PepsiCo We do have a couple a couple of other companies reporting their numbers this week, but to be perfectly honest It's a bit sort of slim pickings as I mentioned via Pepsi on Wednesday I also mentioned meeting the test go Wednesday scrolling down here Costco fourth quarter numbers on Thursday And then that'll be and then DFS furniture have full your figures out on on Thursday, but to be honest, it's a relatively quiet week in terms of the corporate reporting Take a look now to the footsie 100. It's broken. Well, it's broken nicely above The 7400 level as you can see here. So the big picture For the footsie 100 has been has been pushing higher created an all-time high in June Lost some ground over the summertime, but we are seeing every sergeant now So just zoomed the camera zoomed the camera. They did the yet It kind of the scroller in I took a closer look at how the footsies doing so The strength of the sterling really kind of drove drove the at the footsie lower here To the canloses of September, but since then Over the last two two and a half weeks nearly three weeks the footsie has been pushing higher as you can see It was in negative momentum the negative Declined then I was swung to positive momentum so you can be kind of more confident that this upward move Is to continue we're now just trading just pretty much on the one word on a day moving average And it's never here in around seven thousand four hundred and twenty. I'm seeing as we has a bit of a bit of previous Form of kind of acting as acting as support while while the market was was above that metric and results of Metric with allocation acting as resistance to the market was that was was below it Trying to push above it. So if we do break north and of the of the one-day moving average at seven thousand four hundred and twenty We could be then looking towards the September high of seven thousand four hundred sixty one Beyond that we could potentially look to the August high of seven thousand five hundred and fifty two And then beyond that again, we look through the all-time high of just seven to shy of seven thousand six hundred As I mentioned in UK service numbers are coming out during the week That's going to impact potentially impact the pound and in turn impact the footsie one hundred any kind of moves To the south on the footsie one hundred could potentially get support from the two-day moving average in around seven thousand three hundred and forty in our just such south of that seven thousand three hundred and thirty seven Notice how once the market had a very decisive break through it If they any kind of values were sort of running running out of steam just before it kind of got to it And then I find the actually made a decisive breakthrough it so That may act as support should we move south again And if we do take out the turning moving average to the downside We could then be looking back towards seven thousand two hundred thirty three and then south of that We could potentially see a retesting of the September low at seven thousand one hundred and ninety five The DAX is in far better shape We're talking about a three month high or you know, 14 week. How it's done quite well It's actually not too far away from the all-time high on the DAX So keep an eye on what's been going on the German market the downward kind of challenge that I was in is broke clearly out of that Nearly you know nearly one month ago as we kind of pushing higher It's slightly concerning though that that positive momentum isn't particularly high It certainly has been taking higher, but the most important indicator to keep an eye on is the price and the prices is pushing higher So that is the most important thing you need to be keeping an eye on so as you can see here It's creating multi-week highs multi-month highs The all-time high comes into play at twelve thousand nine hundred and fifty four So we're about probably 98 points shy of that and bearing in mind on the DAX That isn't a major move That's probably a percentage of about zero point eight percent eight tenths of one percent So which isn't a massive move for the DAX So we're within less than a hundred points of the old of the all-time high in the DAX So, you know for near record record high for multi-month highs And we're very close to recently close to the all-time high It's got to show you kind of bullet sentiment that is out there for the Germany 30 of the DAX Any pullbacks? We do see and the on the on the Germany 30 may get support in around this this area here in around 12,855 and then south of that maybe down towards 12,700 The US markets are even are even in better shape yet again taking a look now at what's going on with the Dow Jones the US 30 As you can see here, I know the official cash trading hasn't begun today But the futures market are indicating yet another record high for the Dow Jones buying on the dips has been a popular strategy With some traders in the last number of months as the markets going on to create record highs That's an indication of the overall sentiment is and as I mentioned price most important indicator The markets are regularly ratcheting up your record highs. That's that's the That's the that's the position you could you could be looking towards Say the kind of moves lower in the Dow Jones the US 30 may find support in around this price area here just shy of 22,300 and in south of that again the kind of the big Pullback that we saw it in the kind of mid late September at 22,216 and then to the to the upside people The traders are often keep an eye out because it's fresh territory Traders will have to be kind of keeping out for big numbers such as, you know 25,600 600 700 and so on As you mentioned before it's ever so slightly concerning that while the markets are pushing on here to do Pushing on to record highs. We're not really. Let's see that have been reflected in the momentum It could be it could be a sign that because of buying rate because energy that the bulls have it's kind of running out of steam But nonetheless if the markets printing are it's going to get a printing and all time highs I would you know the price in this case is more important than what the momentum indicator is showing It's a reasonably similar view if you look now at the S&P 500 Oh, I'll do that open up the wrong chart Simmer situation whereby the big picture the trend has been higher. We have seen some fairly decent pullbacks, but those pullbacks Didn't last particularly not well those pullbacks work within Where they would put what we're then made up and then we're done to create new highs as you can see here buying on the deep has been a popular strategy over the last number of months and similar to the Dow Jones the S&P 500 features are pointed to yet another new all-time high So once again any kind of pullbacks we do see on the S&P 500 may find support in around this price area here of 2,510 2,507 South of that because it's the steep pullback we saw in September at 2,488 and then south of that in 2,480 and then similar to the similar to the Dow Jones Traders will often be looking towards kind of hand big big numbers Because this is you know fresh territory fresh records. So you could be looking towards 2,530 4050 so on and so forth It's a bit more encouraging that you see as the the market was pushing higher here want to create in the last couple of training sessions Fresh all-time highs. It was a bit more encouraging to see that at the momentum here the positive momentum Is actually increasing so that way you can feel a bit more confident That the upward move is likely to continue because when you have the when you have the price as a Momentum moving in the same direction that that's when you can be more confident that the move is going to continue On the flip side of this positive news for the equity markets is poor old gold which has which has been kind of Pushing lower the last number of weeks. So In kind of mid-September gold early September gold hit a 13-month high And has been giving up ground ever since I've been pushing lower now For over two weeks well for over three weeks now. It's now trading a 1273 the 100 day moving average isn't too far away from here comes into play around 1272 1270 And notice how the 100 day moving average did act as a bit of support in August And also in July as well So it does have a bit of form of providing support For the gold market when the gold market was pushing higher So you could potentially see some buyers enter the fold in around the kind of 1272 1270 region for gold but The price is pushing lower. It's it's a notice how we're kind of bounced off of the 50 day moving average Had a bounce back and then I decided move south of the 50 50 moving average So that 50 day moving average may now act as resistance If you do if you do see any kind of moves higher on the price of gold Which should be in around the 1296 region and then of course they're going to psychological 1300 the big number and then north of that 1316 these are all levels for potential for resistance if you do see the price of gold push higher and then north of that again 1334 and the 13 month high at 1358 If you do break south of the 100 day moving average in around the 1272 1270 region that we could see a Further push lower a week back down towards the 200 day moving average Which comes into play just south of the 1250 region 1249 notice how Negative momentum is is still is still quite high. So it gives you an idea of where we're where I'm how much kind of Power is behind the sellers. We've yet to see any kind of waning of the of the momentum Negative momentum at the end at the same time We get to see any kind of a sign that this doubt that this is the downward trend has come to an end taking a look now at the price of The oil markets, I think like the Brent bearing the mind Brent had a really good run in the last few weeks Whereby Brent went on to hit a 26 month high only last week This actually just just six six straight six days ago in a 22 months at 26 month high right rather And it's been giving up some ground since then so but then again if you had a 26 month high You are going to potentially see it's already surprising to see some profit taking So it's kind of went out to hit a multi-year high ever since then we've been giving up some of some of the gains That I had that I was registered for the time being it may find support in around the it's just it's just north of 56 dollars in parallel for Brent We may find some support at 56 the number itself and then if he moved south of that We could be we could see a retesting of 55 or in south of that again. We could see a retesting of 53 83 But bearing in mind the big picture, you know, if you're at multi-year highs That does tell you this a lot of kind of pull a sentiment still in the market It's been in a fairly clear and concise upward trend since since June It's only for kind of looking head and back south of the the fifth day moving average Which comes into play in around fifty fifty three fifty or the tour the moving average at fifty two fifty three And move south of that may then bring the kind of upward move from from June into question And if that were to be the case We could then see a move and be testing of the one or two moving average at fifty one dollars and twenty one cents Notice how we did see a bit of support at the one or two moving average price in both July and also August It is worth pointing out that as the market was coming off here positive momentum Slip and then of course actually swung at the negative momentum. So we're so the price moving lower momentum is moving It's a negative territory So we could see a bit of a current we could see a continuation of the downward move and then whether that Whether that's just a dip a correction in the wider positive move or whether the beginning of something new We'll have to see kind of what level it takes out on the way down It's a a similar ish looking church when we turn our attention to WTI WTI didn't have the kind of quite Polish run That Brent data, but it did hit a four month high only at the back end of last week So you can see here WTI West Texas and intermediate training at its highest level Since since April this year. So it got to a four month high and similarly went like like a Brent We have seen a bit of a tailing off in the in the price But it should be kind of continue to move lower in the price of Brent We could potentially find support in in at the tune of a moving average at forty nine dollars and thirty cents As it as it's at it as a recent hit in multi-month high It was kind of suggests that I did take out the may high It would suggest that the kind of overall sentiment is still fairly Polish on the energy market Bearing the mind we have the OPEC meeting coming up in November OPEC have already ready to be making noise about potentially or some OPEC members are making noise about potentially extending the production freeze By three months out until the end of June 2018 So that's something to keep an eye on it's also worth pointing out that we actually saw an increase in the number of active rigs on The Baker Hughes recount from the United States over the weekend So just keep an eye on that But should we should we remain north of the two or they move the average on WTI at forty nine dollars and thirty cents It's possible. It's possible. It's a potential possibility That we could see the continuation of the wider upward move in Brent in WTI And if that is the case The levels to watch out for to the upside would be the September high of fifty dollars and fifty three cents Keep an eye on that level and then some some buyers might be then looking towards the April high at fifty three dollars and fifty six cents and then north of that again Some bulls might be keeping an eye on the February high of fifty four dollars and sixty three cents Whereas if we move if you take out the two day moving average in the downside We may find some we may find some buying commit to play in round the forty eight dollars per barrel level Just turning our attention now to the currency markets Having a look at the euro versus the US dollar so After a great run for many months, you know, I'm hitting a multi-year high The euro dollar in September. I've been largely been selling off since then as you can see here The price has been pushing lower negative momentum is on this has been on the has been on the rise and if on the Ever since a trend itself of the fifth day moving average It's not difficult to get back above that metric So for the time being while we remain south of the fifth day moving average on the euro dollar Which is in around the kind of 118 50 region or 118 49 region We could see This the negative move that's been in place for the last few weeks continue And if you do if you do kind of keep to keep south of that metric We could see if we could see a pullback to the August low of 116 sorry 116 16 to 62 and then south of that In the one of these one of the class one of the spikes lower in July at 116 13 And then if you take on that level as well We might even see a pullback to the 100 a moving average at 115 75 But should we take should we recapture retake the fifth day moving average? Which is in around the kind of 118 50 region? We can then see a potential move back up towards 119 120 and if you get back up to kind of 120 handle that could be a sign that the kind of But that at the kind of negative move with you've seen over the last few weeks It was only just a correction and they kind of wider up for trend and then the trainers and bulls We could potentially be looking towards the recent the September high Of 120 at 92 and then they could towards 121 and 122 But notice how the momentum is still very much in negative territory You know you would want to see a cooling of that as the price is pushing higher cable there the pound versus the US dollar is Not too dissimilar to what we've seen on the euro versus the US dollar So so the kind of big picture has been quite positive over the last four months on the pound versus the US dollar Lurching higher the pullback Want to go to new highs onto new kind of multi-week highs multi-month highs followed by a lower by a higher low And after they can a great run ahead in September We have been pushing lower since this this area here The wider trend is still is upward trend is still in play But seeing as price has has been coming off quite aggressively and we can see a fairly clear and concise Decline the positive momentum that even a swing into negative momentum The momentum is clearly to the downside We haven't seen any any of the buying pressure Any cool as of yet so we could see a further move south from the in the pound versus the US dollar So a potential ever to watch out for to the downside is this price here About which is which is the which is 132 67 and then south of that we made we could find some could find some support in around this area here Which is the 50-day moving average in at 131 96, sorry one 130 what 131? 29 29 rather the 50-day moving average and then south of that a Water-day moving average comes into play at 130 These areas that we potentially see if the market does continue to move lower We could see in the near term moves Down towards these metrics, but also as the track as the kind of wider trend upward trend is still in play These are also metrics, which we could see buyers enter the phone because You can notice here at the market was pushing higher We did see a bit of support from the water on a day moving average And also both metrics are provided as a bit of support in the early quarter of the year as well But if you do happen to take out water-day moving average then some trend then looking towards the 30 moving average in at 127 46 Just change over To the euro versus the US dollar So what Matthew December to the euro dollar and also the pound dollar whereby the euro for the euro starting It's a great one for many months on until it all came until we saw a large seller until it hitting a until and 30 large turn around Which began over the wash you about five or six weeks ago So quite an aggressive decline in the euro versus the British pound Starting from late August crash through the 50-day moving average crass below the water-day moving average And now it seems to be sort of trapped in between the Water-day moving average to the upside and this price here in at From the July low in at 87 to 38 to the downside So it would be nice to get a break either side either direction out of this kind of relatively Tight range so a break to the upside should be taken off the water-day moving average, which is in around the kind of 8900 level We could then see a push higher up to the fifth of the moving average at 923 and then north of that up towards 1988 and then to 9161 But if you can't break north of the water-day moving average And if you do take off via the the July low at 87 38 We could we could see some buying commitment to play in on the 30 moving average in at 87 24 But then south of that we keep it back towards the 86 region Notice how while the price was in the kind of sharp decline here We did see and they're quite an aggressive ramping up of the negative in the of the negative momentum and Then we saw the all the kind of intense setting the pressure dissipate here So so it's all we're almost back to kind of almost like almost a neutral momentum. So it's almost like the kind of Bulls are sorry the bears rather I was kind of run out of steam And they kind of severe setting pressure has declined So it's almost like the market is at one of those points whereby I have this quite aggressive rally from the lows of April Up to the high in August Is this move just going to be a correction in the wider positive trend? Or is it going to be something that when the market turns over on itself? And that's where if we do get a break over this region could be indication of whether we're heading back up to retest the August highs or whether we're actually going to be actually the The market is going to be turning over on itself So what if the market does get the market does break north? What you'd like to see is you'd also like to see a increase You'd like to see see positive momentum come back on the radar and then increase From there or vice versa if the if the markets is pushing lower You would also like to see that being mimicked by an increase in negative momentum just turning our attention now to the the dot the Japanese yen Europe dollar versus the Japanese yen If there's anything you'd like to meet you cover But I haven't covered already feel free to stick it in the box And I will just happily talk about that So take a look now at the dollar yen the dollar yen has been hanging on nicely Despite the fact that's been broadly been pushing lower largely throughout 2017 the fact that it's had quite an aggressive turned around in September because it has been a broad increase in the US dollar It's managed to kind of take out some of it some of the the lower highs that we witnessed from in July and August Now it now has managed to retake the 200 day moving average Why we remain north of the tour day moving average which comes into play Roughly speaking around 112 the outlook could potentially remain positive from the dollar versus the end And if that is the case levels to watch to the upside to potentially look out for could be this What one of the highs from July in at 113 57 and then north of that again the actual high in July at 1 14 49 But if you do manage to Break below the tour day moving average in around 112 again that level may then become active resistance to any kind of moves higher And it moves to the downside might find support You know the one or two moving average at 1 11 0 5 notice how the one or two moving average was acting as a bit of resistance Well stroke support in around this price area here as it was going north if I the difficulty break north of it But once it got above it at that price action that metric then actually began to support the end of positive move And then a move south of the of 111 0 5 could then see a return down towards 1 on 9 and 55 and then south of that again the September low of 107 32 So now that we've covered The main markets obviously be quick as always show you a quick kind of run down of where we we also have other items on our Trading platform at the top of the show. I talked about how we have the week ahead cap week ahead We have week ahead article talking about the main economic and also a cover events of the week If you go to the market pulse tab fourth option down, you can see the market calendar Give you full breakdown of the major Major economic events of the week ahead of us You just scroll through it here It'll give you the previous reading and also give you the forecast reading and then once the number is actually out itself It'll then actually be in the box Populate immediately as soon as the number itself is out So this is obviously keeping if you're trading in predicted currencies It's something that you need to be aware of and keep an eye on obviously with the big The big one to keep off what keep an eye off for this week is going to be the non-farm The non-farm payrolls which I mentioned in our non-farm payrolls in just one second So under that tab there market pulse We also have the insight section and this is the insights here as I mentioned some of our some of our news Analysis that we analyst create goes to our news Goes on to our website where some of it Goes on to the actual inside of self on the trading platform like it's up updated regularly throughout the day What we also do as well is what you can see here chart forums from a self and other other analysts What we do is we upload very kind of short a Few hundred characters a few hundred words of what's going on with any particular chart and discuss prices We may see which could be of interest in the future And also lastly looking at other events that we that we are we are holding here Looking at other events What we can see here is Tomorrow in our London office at 6 30 p.m. London time We do have we do have an in-house webinar So we do have any an in-house seminar rather And the title of that seminar is called mastery the mind and the and the markets on Wednesday at 7 30 p.m. London time We have a webinar covering the defined trading strategy and On Friday the 6th of October at 1 15 burn a summer time We will have our non-farm payrolls webinar covering What's going the big move covering the numbers and the big moves that are going on in the numbers as well to do The market that is moving by far the most today and it's it's in the it's in the headlines for all the wrong reasons Is the Spanish market? the ibex 35 unlike What we saw in the CV district could we just ignore the Catalan situation for us one moment The Spanish 35 has been actually been kind of pushing lower all the way Broadly speaking throughout the summer whereby we did see us a push We did see it at a decline and then a snap higher about the about the German market and also the French market Whereby the Spanish market has improved the pushing lower throughout throughout the entire throughout the summer time With this but the exception of this kind of snap push higher where it did break north on the 50-day moving average It was improved these speaking Being held up as well as it's broadly found the difficult to to gain ground north of the 50-day moving average And we can see here even at the back end of last week Everybody struggled with that metric So while the Spanish market remains south on the 50-day moving average which comes into play at 10386 It's likely we could see the market Remain under pressure But at the same time it's also getting a bit of support from the two-day moving average which comes into play at 10,029 So keeping an eye on the on the market here itself. This level here is enough to keep an eye out for on 10,000 100 or 10,087 I believe is the low in September And then south of that Chairs are then been looking towards the kind of the 10,000 level itself. Should we break north of the 50-day moving average at 10381 we can then find potentially some resistance in this price area here at 10,445 And then north of that at the one or two moving average of 10,546 Now I appreciate your time feel free to tune in next Monday at 1215 and as I mentioned we do have other for both seminars and a one in-house webinar Going on at our London office this week. I've been David Madden. Thank you for tuning in Please tune in next week. Have a good trading week and good luck