 Hey everyone welcome to This edition of live future and stocks trading on bookmap. I Hope everyone has had a good trading week so far got a little bit of a bounce back yesterday We'll talk about the technicals and just a few but first we're gonna dive into some charts and take a look at what's going on So thanks for tuning in feel free to share this with your friends and colleagues and trading buddies And so forth as we look more into what's going on in these markets here But before we do there's a few things I have to go through of course So a little bit about me you've probably watched this enough that I can kind of summarize essentially I've been involved in the markets for about 18 years starting with trading and going into investing I like to look at technicals the macro picture and Some of the other elements in the market such as options flow Positioning sentiment. I'm really interested in finding pieces of the puzzle that fit together to create a theme And so this is a little bit about me. My name is markets in mayhem You could find me at trader aid calm for more trading oriented content Macro visor for more longer term trading and investing and big picture content and then my YouTube at mayhem number four markets same as my Twitter handle and If you'd like to get a huge discount on book map up to 40% off is at our website trader aid calm slash book map and You can take advantage of that coupon by just scrolling down to the specials And here is everyone's favorite part of my presentation where I quickly read through the disclaimer General disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only should not be used For specific investment advice or recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss It is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. So now that we've got through that Let's talk a little bit about the markets here We have Pretty decent bounce back from the lows in retail sentiment Which is just giving us a sense that perhaps people are getting a little bit more excited about Opportunities in this market. Of course, we've had this sort of perpetual reflexive dip buying as being a Consistent theme for some time for really the better part of 14 years it served people well And so there's really no reason to believe that's going to stop now and we see this increasing amount of bullish survey participants here in a AI I So I think that that's one thing just to keep an eye on that retail is likely folks like us are likely to be buyers on the margin But they're not alone. We've got managed money They're also adding in fact pretty aggressively here They've almost doubled the NAAI NAAI M number from the lows to the present going from about 35 to 66 That's a pretty big increase over the last two weeks and interestingly this contingent doesn't typically buy the dip but this time they did and We'll just have to get a better sense as to how that serves them with the price action in the days and weeks to come but What's interesting about it to me is You know often is the case that this contingent was actually buying Into strength and selling into weakness. This is the first time I've seen them buying really into weakness So maybe there's a different thought process that's going on after they had been burned quite a bit kind of Trying to go into the momentum and getting chopped up. We'll have to take a close look at how this progresses and Here is the CBOE Equity put call ratio. I emphasize equity because we're not looking at the indices. We're not looking at the total We're just looking at equities. Why? Well, because for me, it's a more Distilled view of the data I look at this because it tells me a little bit more about what market participants that aren't just hedging our thinking and as of yesterday's reading It really looks like they got very bullish again You can see that the put call ratio dropped to 0.5 to it was as high as 1.14 in September So it's fallen by more than half. What does that tell you? It tells you that folks are getting more bullish on single stocks and ETFs and That they're essentially Transacting almost twice as many calls as they are puts it doesn't necessarily mean buying But most of the time it is buying to open So that's something we're not quite in FOMO territory as you can see over the summer That was like 0.34. We're not quite there yet, but we are at a point where there's excitement There's some some bullish optimism in the flows that we're seeing Now that's a little contrasted to what we see from the VIX versus the S&P We have the S&P in blue the VIX inverted in black And we can see there's a decent inverse correlation between these two which on this chart shows up as a positive correlation Why is that important because volatility continues to suggest that perhaps we have some downside risk in equities? I think that's something to take into consideration particularly given this next chart And that is that earnings day moves over the last quarter were 4.1 times larger Than what the average session was over the past 25 years So volatility is a reaction to earnings is a theme particularly as we get into this week Where over 40% of S&P market cap are reporting It's something to consider in the back of our minds that these reactions may be larger and that could be a driver of broader market volatility because some of these components that are reporting are some of the largest components of the S&P and Nasdaq like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta and As we look underneath the surface of the New York Stock Exchange New highs versus new lows we can see that we have new lows in excess of new highs by about 447 so underneath the surface there is a bit of a breakdown happening in this market Doesn't really affect our day-to-day trades as much as our swing trades But it tells us that this sort of idea that there was going to be a broadening rally this Increasing breadth and that this was going to turn into a healthier bull market may not necessarily be the case There is some structural weakness here another interesting chart that I talked about in navigating the markets Which you can find on my YouTube for free this week a special gift to all y'all out there One of the charts showed that you know bear markets typically from their low and one-year forward Once you transition into a bull are led by equal weight and small caps But this time that's not the case this time. It's all been led by the market cap weighted index Whether we look at S&P or Nasdaq and that's another sign that really there isn't that upside participation So again, if you're of the mindset that you're swing trading and you're looking at this It's not sending the most confidence, right? It's it's telling us that underneath the surface. There is some structural weakness Now let's take a look at the twos to tens yield curve We are steepening out of a pretty deep inversion deepest inversion. You can see on this chart over over two decades and That's important because you know the inversion is where you get the warning sign But the steepening into positivity particularly if it's meaningfully positive like over 50 bits That's when you start to see warning signs for the economy Of course, we all heard that Bill Ackman covered his bond short made some good money Everyone was making fun of him when he shorted said oh This is the bottom of the bond market at macro visor We remained adamant that the highs and yields were not in we still feel that way by the way even though Mr Ackman is covered but This is something that also further suggests the same case at the long end probably has further to move higher After all if you're lending the government money for 30 years and you're getting a lower Yield than what you would for 30 days that suggests that there's some adjustment to that risk premium necessary So let's take a look at some of these key options levels and then we're going to start moving on to some more technical charts This is the model that I've built for trader aid that looks into the S&P 500s option chain on CBOE analyzing about 212,000 data points across just about 10,000 options contracts and Then it derives from these key levels based on concentrated positioning So the most important level that we're really looking at here in the context of today is Going to be this put wall at 4,200 and then above us We've got this gamma level at 4,300 those are kind of going to keep us sandwiched in but as we open that key level of 4,250 is likely to be a good pivot to look at because if we can push higher That would probably open us up for some decent upside potentially 40 or 50 points more On the other side this put wall, which is also the volt trigger at 4,200 That's an area that buyers really need to aggressively defend. We saw last time yesterday They were able to defend that level we pushed below it But we saw this sort of look below fake out reversal and pushed higher from there only to give a lot of those gains back up Into the close so a bit of a seesaw But overall yesterday's price action was constructive for buyers But we need to defend that level pushing below there particularly on a closing basis opens us up to more downside potential and more Volatility so that's gonna do it for my slide deck now Let's dive in to some of these technicals here We have on screen the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract. We can see that per RSI. We're starting to get a little Pardon me a little bit oversold here not not much and we're starting to see a little bit of perking back up You can see our SIs, you know, it's starting to move a little higher here. So momentum may be looking a little bit more favorable We also had that look below reversal yesterday You can see we went well below Some of these prior lows that we can see this line has been pretty good about Delineating if you pay close attention to the volume profile there you can see something very certain This has been an area that people have not wanted to transact When we got this push below and buyers came in pretty aggressively and bought it back up and are continuing to do so today That's worth noting Okay, we got to pay attention to what price is telling us here and what price is telling us is that buyers want to try to give it Another go so for the purposes of today, I'm gonna be looking at 4270 as my pivot I think if we can push above there build some volume and have an opening range break out to the upside That's a part of that process that would get me more confident of taking a day trade to the long side in the S&P 500 But overall if we look at this from a longer term perspective Zooming out from day-to-day trades because remember there's different time horizons Very important to remember like if you know, we're talking about this on a longer time horizon This looks terrible. This is a chart of lower highs and lower lows It just made a bit of a lower low yesterday Obviously, we'll need some confirmation on a closing basis to see that that definitely was the case But this is a chart where the buyers on a longer term time horizon have a lot of work to do to convince the market that momentum is on their side and That work maybe it starts today Maybe it doesn't but for the purposes of what I'm looking for in an intraday basis Above 4270 with some volume being billed to show acceptance would give me the Confidence to say we've got some room to the upside here And I think that that could even take us as high as 4305 4309 if we get a good decent push there. So that's one of the things we're gonna be watching We're gonna be watching for that upside that coalescence and options levels and technical levels But let's move on to the NASDAQ and once we get through all these charts We're gonna go into book map and we're gonna look at the liquidity way more zoomed in So these are zoomed out charts for the purposes of showing some of the broader context of what's happening technically Then we'll zoom in a little bit more and take a look at what's happening with the liquidity both resting and active So here's a chart of the NASDAQ 100 futures contract. You could compare this to QQ Q They're pretty darn similar essentially tracking the same thing although this Instrument is trading about 23 hours a day and five days a week Now this is kind of similar to the S&P chart. We have this breakdown this trend line goes back to October You have this series of lower highs. We haven't quite made the lower low yet though So overall it looks a little more constructive than the E-mini S&P chart We did have this look below yesterday the sort of fake look below and then we're moving higher So again buyers step stepping in aggressively taking control. I Think that's something to take into consideration within the context of this chart Even though on a long-term basis, it looks pretty terrible. We're below the 20-day moving average We're below the point of control, but we have held this level. We have this look below fake out We have RSI trending a bit higher. It's not as promising looking as S&P But it does look like it wants to try to push higher So momentum may be on the side of buyers for today and if we can hold this level here I believe we've got a chance to at least try to challenge This point of control whether that all plays out today. That's a whole different question altogether is that's about Really 300 points higher So I'm a little ambivalent about that happening in the context of today But on a weekly basis if buyers are able to take control getting back up to that point of control that takes us back about six months Wouldn't be too surprising that would also take us above the 20-day moving average And if we could push above both that would put buyers into into serious control again on the other side of it If we do break below this current level that there's been so adamantly defended for months That's where I'd get more concerned about Downside potential growing in the NASDAQ. So that's what we're really looking at there Now, let's take a look at our friend the Russell 2000 which has just been well, it's been a disaster Right. This is breaking to new lows on the year Okay, and we've had a little bit of a perking back up But these small caps not showing any risk appetite in the context of what is supposed to be a new bull market is not a good sign These are obviously more rate sensitive is almost 40% of the Russell doesn't make any money So they're much more reliant on debt You also have a lot of regional banks in the small cap index and they're languishing credit card delinquencies are surging Commercial real estate pressure is on the rise and then their asset books which are mostly long duration US sovereign duration mortgage-backed securities and otherwise they're bleeding out as rates rise So we can see some reasons here. Also. I know some folks aren't as Into this stuff the classic chart patterns, but as an older school trader. I am and This is a classic head and shoulders I mean like you can you can see how it exactly played out left shoulder head right shoulder and then you have that pretty clean breakdown that happened really just at the point of control that you could take it a little bit above here and It's pretty pretty obvious just classic chart pattern on screen That this thing topped out. Okay. I think that's a concern. I think people should be a little concerned about what's happening in the Russell Let me just zoom out to make the point and I know this looks crazy. Give me a second here to kind of clean it up But you can see it's it's a breakdown Maybe we'll put it into the weekly chart for a better context here You can see we're really breaking down to new levels for 2023. We're now getting closer to some of these 2022 lows so for the reluctant optimists here Maybe we start to see some support come in pretty soon, but overall this has been chopping in a range For almost two years these small caps Let's take a look at the boomer index the Dow Jones industrial average. I will zoom in to the daily This is one that maybe it's trying to find its lows here sort of like the Nasdaq It hasn't had a really big breakdown In in terms of the context of what we've had in October It's just sort of been like a hey, let's get back up the point of control We'll test this level up here bulls obviously couldn't make it you can see there's a lot of resistance right up here They got rejected now We're back down here if you're a reluctant optimist and you're looking for a long The Dow doesn't look terrible here from the sense of maybe some reversion back higher Sort of like the Nasdaq if we can get a decent bid here and they defend this level Then the natural path is to go back to where people really like to transact which is quite a bit higher It's about 700 points higher might not be the worst trade ever as a swing Wouldn't be doing it intraday, but you can see that your risk is pretty well-defined if you close below 33,000 it's probably time to get out of the way and even start to look for potential shorts Now I know everyone's been talking about bonds and notes and all that sort of stuff and and there's been a lot of Prognostication that the worst is behind us and the best days are yet to come in these markets I am still skeptical of that And I'll tell you why Because on this chart and we can we can zoom it out to our hearts content here. There's nothing to like This is just down downward momentum and it's been downward momentum since really Early 2021 you can see how that's where it started remember up here the tenure was trading with a yield of point five percent You remember those days point five percent ten year Maya the times have changed this this morning We were at five percent. We've dipped a little bit below that but that's a tenfold increase in the tenure That's huge in the course of you know three and a half years or so That's a very big increase in the cost of servicing debt for the US government But also for all the debt around the world that keys off the tenure yield There's about a hundred trillion dollars of global debt that keys off the tenure yield a lot of it is dollar denominated So a rising dollar also makes that debt harder to service becomes more expensive So as we see rates rise and the dollar rise as well You do get some potential for a bit of a global margin call so to speak growing The idea that rates have topped here and they're just gonna start to Magically go lower might be a little bit optimistic. I'm still looking for rates on the long end to continue moving higher I've yet to see anything that gives me a lot of hope that this move is over So on a monthly basis, you know, we could see this kind of move down on the on the tenure futures to about 104 I think that's where we could probably see some more support if we look at historical trends of price So for me, it's still a little early to be saying the worst is over. Let's look at the 30 year similar picture here, right? What's really striking though is that we're Starting to look like we want to cross below this multi-decade point of control Which would be a pretty bad look. It's interesting if you look at TLT you're to date It's it's really crushed But if you look at TLT from the date of its overall inception, which I think was like 2005 2006 something like that goes back quite a ways. It's only up from inception not with standing dividend payouts by about 3% So think about that for a second the amount of destruction that's happened. You can obviously see it on this chart It's been a big round trip. What was the big driver of the upside here? What was the big driver of price upside and yield downside, right? It was QE Was all this sort of intervention by the Fed and now we have the opposite now We have QT and you can see the impact is pretty darn alarmingly clear That liquidity is leaving this market and and it's interesting because you know You look at Treasury flows and everyone seems to be a buyer in the US. You've got US retail and institutions buying handover fist But foreign buyers are stepping back. China is a net seller Saudi is a net seller Japan is Significantly curtailed how much treacheries are buying and of course the Fed which was the largest buyer at auctions is Now letting a lot of these maturities roll off their balance sheet per the caps that QT provides Now let's take a look at our favorite shiny metal. That's gold. We're gonna zoom into this one This one's had an incredible run and it's it's largely been gold doing what it does best in my opinion gold is a Hedge against uncertainty. It is a fear trade. It is very driven by psychology more than anything else in my humble opinion so this surge in gold that we've had and Broken us out of this downtrend It tells me one thing. I mean first you see RSI starting to roll over you see a bit of that up here I think if there aren't additional Terrible events that are happening globally because that's the only way we contextualized what's really happening That drive fear into this market then gold has actually a lot more downside risk here and The reason I say that is because positioning is starting to get a little lopsided We're seeing a lot of excitement in this and I've been in the gold market since 2005 I've been trading it for a long time and one thing that I can say is that when you have these kinds of very quick sharp moves upward It's usually a very good place to take some profit particularly if you don't know what the Catalyst for continuation will be or if you're not certain about it because if we don't know what the catalyst for continuation will be And we're not certain about it. We've risen by you know over to basically 200 bucks from the lows almost right Then what are we doing? We're gambling so for me I would be scaling out of this trade I'm not necessarily looking for shorts and gold quite yet But I wouldn't want to be super long here after such a big move that relies on worsening escalation to keep going Let's take a look at crude oil futures here. This is still constructive It's not great But it's not gotten out of its longer-term uptrend that it started over really the summer here I Like crude but I would want to see a little more consolidation And the biggest thing that I need to see include for my model is people getting away from their ultra mega long positioning if we look at Brent and We look at the overall futures exposure via COT. It's very lopsided long similarly if we go and we look at West Texas intermediate crude US crude and we look at call skew, okay? So that's the distribution of premium in calls versus puts. There's a lot more skew towards calls What is that telling us that the positioning is a bit crowded? Okay, that gives us a sense that people are a little too excited about upside for crude and Ironically that can cap that same upside now We can get into some of the hedging dynamics as to why if anyone has any questions as to why that might be the case I'm happy to answer it, but if crude can start to base here. I like it. Otherwise. I'm looking for it at around 8329 either area though Really as long as it's staying above 80, but ideally 83 29 I'm constructive on its price action. I Also think there's opportunities in the energy space I also think that some of these stocks and energy could be worth looking into as Longs with crude consolidating here. There's this huge M&A going on in the space. You've got Exxon buying Pioneer You've got Chevron's acquisition recently There's there's a lot of activity that suggests to me that if you're able to find some of the midstream and smaller Producers that are attractive buyout targets that could also be an opportunity in this space to really generate some alpha But overall I like crude. I just don't want to necessarily get long here When I was talking to our trader aid members I was talking about getting long here and here on these kisses at the trend line that were defended because for me That's a much better risk reward than what we're seeing currently So we're gonna look at one last chart on here and then we're gonna go into book map This is a chart of the US dollar index. We can see that it's testing that 20-day moving average from below We can see that there's some key areas of price action here that it's sort of chopping along I like I'm looking at this so far unless we break down. I'm looking at this is consolidation Consolidation within the context of a broader uptrend to me It kind of looks like the pattern we saw in September here So let's see if we have a kind of similar consolidation and then push higher What does concern me is closing below the 20-day moving average and not being able to really get the muster to move above it in the context of rsi rolling over And us kind of being well above that 70% value range So all of that tells me there are risks here. I don't want to be long the dollar currently But I do want to watch it pretty adamantly for signs of continuation So that's going to do it for the longer term charts now. We're going to get into book map So give me one second to put that on screen There we go And we've got a couple different contracts. We'll be tracking God the s&p nasdaq tenure note futures gold and crude So I brought gold into the fold today And it's just because it's it's really become a pretty interesting part of the market to watch here And what you see on the right column is an add-on that I've actually created This is something that I coded that draws from the options model that I mentioned earlier in the presentation And it analyzes those same s&p levels, but it articulates them within book map So this is an exclusive thing that we have for trader aid members But I want to keep it going on this stream showing you all what we're doing eventually I hope to make it available on book maps marketplace as well And this morning, you know, we've had a decent amount of earnings. We've had Some overnight news that's probably worth processing a lot of these global PMIs are coming in weaker than expected Of course, we get us PMIs flash manufacturing flash services this morning at 9 45 am as well as the Richmond manufacturing index at 10 am So those are things that kind of uh, just Keep in the back of our minds as we're watching price action We know that these some of these macro catalysts can have a pretty big impact The mood right now in my opinion would be if flash manufacturing comes in materially stronger than expected We go back into expansion over 50 And we see similar from services. I think that's going to Cut short this reprieve in rates that we've had and give some upside push rates and some downside to risk Particularly longer duration risk like the Russell and Nasdaq could come under pressure on the other side of that However, if manufacturing and services come in materially weaker than expected I'd say 48 or lower the expectations for both today around 49 That would tell me that we're likely to see a drop in rates and a boost in stocks. It sounds counterintuitive. Why the heck would Economic data that suggests things are getting worse be good for stocks and and be good for bonds Well, mostly because the market is so hyper focused on what the Fed does next That it's leading based on inference So if you have weaker economic data Chances become that hey, maybe the Fed becomes more accommodative earlier than what is priced in That can give a pop to risk and a drop to rates and on the other side of that If you see stronger economic data, then we are expecting that could have the opposite effect You could have rates rise and risk get pummeled a bit This is something that I think is worth taking into consideration that data is coming out in about what is it going to be about 25 minutes or so 27 minutes So we'll be watching that I'll I'll give you my thoughts on it as it comes out because I'll have about 15 minutes to discuss it Before I have to get off. I'm here every Tuesday at 9 a.m. Eastern. So thank you everyone for tuning in appreciate it You can find me on my own youtube and twitter at mayhem number four markets. That's mayhem for markets So this morning we're going to zoom out just a little bit We can see the liquidity is thinning out a bit ahead of the open which is interesting We will be watching this closely after the opening bell which is happening in less than a minute going into the nasdaq The opposite you can see actually liquidity is building as we get closer to this opening bell here So we'll be watching that as well. Everything can change as that bell rings ahead of the open We've got just a little bit of a bid in bonds. You can see some iceberging here buying into that weakness Gold is well, there's a decent amount of liquidity around gold. This is not a heavily traded contract So to see about 100 contracts below It's interesting. It's worth watching And then finally crude is weak. It's breaking below 85 here. So let's get back to the s&p here as we're at the opening bell And also i'm going to pop some of these charts on the screen as well occasionally during the broadcast This is motive wave where we look at the s&p over four different time frames So just wanted to quickly pop that on screen just to show that so far we have this bit of a constructive opening Um, we are seeing some bidding happening. They're trying to build some volume. Let's see how that goes We'll go back into the liquidity here We do see from the open that that very minute the market opened liquidity started to grow again in these resting bid and offers Remember, we're looking at 42 70 as a potential pivot And potentially looking at longs with a cross above there and some volume built to show acceptance Now as we're watching the opening Anyone out there has any questions or feedback or anything? Let me know if you're on the discord for bookmap just tag me in And in that in the mayhem channel and let me know what you're thinking Otherwise drop it in the youtube chat and i'm happy to share my thoughts and discuss what's on your mind So obviously s&p has a healthy bid nasdaq even more so look at that strength coming into the tech index this morning A little bit of iceberg distribution here. You can see that selling And now we're seeing a bit of a u-turn here From that constructive open Let's take a look at the 10-year note futures. It is moving higher. This is such a liquid contract You've got 3400 on the offer just casually sitting at 106 150 And we're challenging vwap here potentially moving up to this point of control. We'll be watching that here Gold steady as she goes Crude falling further. Wow. Look at that down another 30 cents here Just after the open Everyone's content to hate on crude. Remember we talked about it being a crowded position It is a very crowded position This is something that when we're looking at positioning dynamics It's very important to understand when things get crowded to one side that it can limit how much price can move in that side's favor Let's go back to the s&p and as We're trading. I just saw about 450 000 dollars of premium go to the us o etf That's the oil etf with a strike price of 78 and an expiration of november 17 So someone's buying the dip here in size Someone also bought a hundred thirty eight thousand dollars of meta 320 calls to expire on the third of november Those are the two big call premium flows I see this morning I'm just going to add some of the premium flows to the commentary in case that helps you all It certainly helps me getting a flavor for the market And s&p is just continuing to kind of build volume around this point of control that's starting to move higher Which is good for the buyers We have yesterday's most active call and most active put on screen once we get the data confirmed For today We show that data on screen And replace yesterday's data, but the key levels that we're watching here that are based on This options model they are updated every two minutes And often they don't change too much unless there's a lot of position rotation underneath the surface Let's go back to the nasdaq here. Wow. Look at that volatility The nasdaq is such a beta beast. So it actually had It pushed to a new pre market versus pre market levels that we saw pushed to a new high Right, and then it pushed to a new low and now we're pushing back higher again In a range of about 150 points in a matter of minutes Now to add to the validity of this bid in tech what I'd really like to see is is notes catching a bid here We see a little bit more But I'd love to see that tenure continue to push higher in price I think that would be helpful for some of this long duration tech that's trying to catch a more strong bid Going over to gold. It just continues to consolidate And without a catalyst this thing is looking a little bit heavy And crude is trying to find its way here It had a really difficult start to the day the point of control is being dragged lower putting sellers in favor And now we're going to move back to the spooze here. They're getting a nice bid. We're pushing above 42 70 I do like the look of that. I think if we can build some acceptance up here Then this could be worth a long So let's see how we do here. I'd really be looking at this I like to give it at least 15 minutes or so for the opening range to be established So that's what i'm looking for at the present But if we do get that healthy bid above 42 70 and we build build some decent volume there I would still be interested in potentially taking a long but see we can see how that pivot level is getting some reaction And that's exactly why I looked at it because I figured this area price action could be an Interesting place to get a better sense as to whether buyers have the conviction to make a more determined push We do see liquidity building above and not so much below. So that is constructive for buyers If if trend agrees, you know liquidity building above typically can act like a magnet Just like it can below if the trend is moving in that direction Got some more bullish call activity going on here. We've uh, got $139,000 of premium in the IWM ETF to expire November 17th at the 170 strike and then in vidya You've got about $200,000 of premium at the 465 strike for november 10th So more bullish flow this morning than bearish. There is one bearish flow that came through for qqq 180,000 targeting 356 for the end of this actually for Today, yeah, that's an actual zero DTE. They're trading there And we are continuing to push below above 42 70 on es We have liquidity thickening up here. You can see it's getting deeper red That means that those positions that they want to take at those levels are growing Let's look at the nasdaq here. It's still chopping in a bit of a range But overall is looking pretty constructive above the point of control and vwap for now And we have these 10 year futures that are just kind of chopping along testing this vwap level here Again for the nasdaq. I'd love to see this better bid. I think it would help the techs Gain some strength if we saw rates continue to push lower I'm gonna imagine gold. Yeah, continuing to do what it does best sort of chopping along Waiting for everyone to come become complacent before it makes its next big move. That's what gold loves to do And crude is starting to firm up a little bit here That's a concern because if it does really catch a strong bid that could put some upward pressure on rates again So we'll go back full circle to this booze here. We're building above that 42 70 We've got that acceptance starting to happen here. It's looking more constructive to consider taking along in my opinion Of course, the big risk we have is in seven minutes We get key data actually six minutes and 40 seconds now We get that flash manufacturing and services pmi which could throw a wrench in things And the dollar is also firming up a bit here Up just about half a percent Interestingly though, it is another day where commodities are leading coffee is up 1.24 24 percent orange juice is up 1.21 percent So that's something to pay attention to it's not the best sign to see Such strength in these softs in my opinion It just pushes upward pressure into the sort of inflation dynamics, particularly as it concerns food And we're still just kind of hovering around this 42 70 level this pivot that I selected for today I'm still wanting to see a more decisive break in either direction to tell me that We have an opportunity for momentum And I think that the market is going to actually consolidate here until we get the data I don't think we're going to get a big move until we get flash and services pmi This is often what happens When there's a decent Level of volatility catalyst just ahead the market kind of consolidates It gets to a key level and then it waits for the data to make its big move So for me, I'm going to be waiting for that data to get a better sense as to what the direction is going to be And I like to look at rates as that data comes out because often they give us some valuable clues We do see more liquidity building on the upside there. You see that new offer growing just above 42 82 I think that's about 42 83 on the offer at that 379 And it's interesting to see the liquidity building into An economic data event typically you don't see that as much typically it actually narrows a bit So someone has some conviction that we're going to see some upside with pmi You can see that with all the offers above us and the bids below thinning out Let's take a look at the nasdaq again as we approach this data Just about three and a half minutes away. The nasdaq's made a new high This is looking pretty darn constructive If you're looking at this on a 10 minute opening range, this would be a breakout Let's look at rates here pretty flat on the tenure got that bit up from the lows, but Overall just sort of consolidating similar picture in gold And crude is off its lows, but is still not looking so great today overall Now overnight we got some news from china that Maybe this time they might actually do some stimulus She visited the people's bank of china for the first time ever and basically Tried to create the image that oh well now we're taking this seriously just about a year after we've been saying that We're going to actually do something I'm still skeptical. I think that there's a lot of smoke and mirrors over there And I would I will believe it when I see it in terms of chinese stimulus their market has Fell to new lows for the year. There's a lot of problems that are happening over there I know that they bounced a little bit overnight, but I would be cautious about getting bullish china But I got that heads up from my partner's breakfast bites Which she releases on macro visor and trader aid every morning It's a great heads up as to what's happened overnight And it's free so you can just check it out get as you know an idea of what's been happening and how it may impact the markets It's good stuff And I read it every morning to give myself a better heads up So I don't have to spend all this time looking around the world as to what news has happened I just have it right there in front of me and that helps me make better decisions as we navigate the market So we can see here. We're still playing around with that 42 70 pivot level on es And we are what a minute 30 before the data. So again consolidating Around a key level before an important data release No reason to get too aggressive in either direction until we see the data and the impact that it starts to have We do see some more bullish options activity happening in Triple queues getting about 200 000 dollars worth of positive flow for those 360s today And just about 30 seconds until those core PMI data releases are coming out And remember 15 minutes after this we get richardman manufacturing, but that's not quite as big of a deal And that data is just about to hit the wires now And uh, yeah the reaction so far does not seem particularly positive here But anything can happen in that first moment after release And manufacturing PMI comes in at 50 versus expectations of 49.5. So flat not in contraction not an expansion but flat And services PMI comes in a point higher than expectations at 50.9 versus 49.9 So that is high enough that it's going to put some pressure on this market And we are seeing that so I'd be more inclined to lean into the short side of this The NASDAQ is really giving it back here. Let's see what's happening or rates. I'm going to guess that the 10 year Yeah, look at that exactly what we thought could happen 10 year is Rerating lower in terms of price higher in terms of rates Not what this market wants to see Gold probably under some pressure with rates rising. There you go And here's crude oil also under a little bit of pressure, but let's go back to the spooze They're not having a great day. They've dropped over 10 points since that data was released Not looking great So I'd be more inclined to look at this As a fade if rates keep pushing higher I don't see any reason to be constructive because the mantra out there is that the economy is softening faster than expected But the data is showing us something a little bit different. But again Let's watch how we process this. Let's give us just a few more minutes As we see liquidity come back in see how the algos and larger trading houses are pushing the market around And folks while we're watching this Let me know if you have any questions. I've got just less than 14 minutes left on the stream I want to thank everyone for tuning in really appreciate it I see new faces and regulars and it's awesome to have folks that are interested in the work that i'm sharing here I hope it's helpful to your trading process and your overall education about financial markets And you'll notice I don't just scalp every few points. I look really for dynamics that put Reward in favor over risk by anywhere between three to one and higher And I haven't seen a lot of that this morning. I think we're getting closer to the point that a fade makes sense But I am a less active intraday trader And I try to get the bigger moves, you know, that's that's really my focal point So sometimes you're not going to see me take trades and sometimes when you don't take a trade It's actually a good thing over trading kills a lot of people your brokers love it You know, you could put their kids through college But for folks like us that are trying to build capital and preserve capital less can be more So I'm inclined to fade this as we approach The 10 o'clock hour and the Richmond manufacturing index. I think that we've got room to the downside So I'm going to initiate a short position here And I'm going to really be looking for most of this move this positive move to be retraced lower I would stop out if we get back to that 42 70 level I think that that's going to tell me That I'm wrong because then we'll be above the point of control will be above the web But ultimately I'm looking for this to get basically get back into That key level of testing that we were at yesterday So I can bring up trading view and sort of show you what I'm thinking And I know this data is a little bit delayed on trading view. It's because I have real time data everywhere else But basically looking at 42 36 and below and then all the way down to 42 13 These are the areas where I would be taking off my core and then my runners If we're so lucky as to see that kind of downside momentum I think it is a slightly higher risk trade because we have seen this wash out the bank of america bear bull indicator is saying by Morgan Stanley's risk indicator is saying by these are of course longer time frame indicators But on the shorter time horizons, it's still pretty neutral. So either side can really meaningfully take control We're also past op-ex. So we sort of have this unclenching That is to say that we were really chopping in a range in last weeks, you know until we started to break down But now we're outside of that We've had a lot of that gamma roll off the chain And it's likely that we see broader trading ranges adding to that as I discussed earlier the moves post earnings in these stocks have been 4.25 times what the average was for the last 25 years another catalyst for volatility as we have What 41 percent of s and p market cap reporting this week? And this is not like the move we saw last time PMI came in hotter than expected probably because It's not quite as hot as it was that time. It's not as big of a Surprise to the market. Let's take a look around here Nasdaq is really rolling over It's now below the point of control and view app Let's just zoom out a little bit here You can see You know a little bit of liquidity building below but nothing to note and and the real key is is s and p I mean s and p is a much more liquid trade than nasdaq So seeing what it's doing typically gives us a little bit more of a clue in terms of the liquidity situation Whereas nasdaq is much more of a price mover Right. It just kind of whips all over the place part of that's probably because there isn't quite as much liquidity in its trade Let's go over to our friends the tenure note and we're retesting these lows You can see the drop that happened on the data release. There was actually a iceberg buy into that Which I thought was kind of interesting And then there's another iceberg buy happening here helping to kind of stabilize prices This is when institutions are putting in a thousand contracts on the buy both of these are a thousand contracts on the buy That's not huge Okay for contract this big where you've casually got thousands Of contracts sitting all over the book, but it's big enough to at least take notice if that pattern starts to build Gold is off its lows, but still consolidating just sort of been chopping this range for pretty much the entire morning session And crude is trying to stabilize here. So mixed picture underneath the surface, but equity is just not looking so great overall We do have more bearish activity in the options market as well We've got some more triple q puts coming in the 356 is for november 17th and about 313 thousand a premium there and then in the spy We've got the 419s and 420s the 419s for 11 3171 thousand in premium on those puts in the 420s for this friday 150 thousand in premium on those Just about seven and a half minutes away from richman manufacturing. This is not typically a big mover Of markets, but still worth watching for any kind of large outliers in the data That's really what the macro Uh data overview for market participants is all about it's really about large outliers And how the market's hedged going into those if you see an large outlier the market's not well hedged for You can get that outsize reaction potentially See the nasdaq and the s&p trying to stabilize here As well as these 10 year note futures. Remember the rates really are an important component of leading this market around I know there's been a large divergence this year. I don't necessarily think that continues I believe that rates are going to set the tone for risk appetite inequities in this final quarter of the year And the shiny metal is starting to push higher here with that relief and rates. It has a bit of a bid It's about four bucks off its lows and finally with crude just sort of chopping around here We do have some liquidity building below and not quite as much above Back to the spools just sort of chopping this range I'm not liking this short as much as I did when I first saw the price action post data release Just because sellers don't seem to have any conviction here at least of yet and I've got about Six minutes left on this So if you all have any questions any feedback, let me know If you're interested in getting a great discount on book map You can visit us at trader e.com slash book map scroll down to the specials and get up to 40 off And if you're interested in these options driven indicators that we have we can see now the most active put And most active call are on screen. This is data is directly pulled from and processed Pulled from the cbo em process with my algorithm And then fed into book maps so that we can see it and these levels are dynamically translated from spx into es So it's pretty cool feature for trader aid plus members on the discord The book map stream is live basically 23 hours a day as markets are trading No real decisiveness for either side here though We're above the point of control which has been dragged lower by sellers putting them in favor But we're also testing this view app level from below So kind of a neutral look so far looks like they're trying to build some volume Potentially make a push up here to this resting bid or resting offer above us I don't see as much resting liquidity below us. I would like to see more of that to feel like I have a higher conviction for downside Typically, you know, when you see the larger parties coming in with Bigger bids below than above that can be another sign that that maybe we're going to get that push So far it's a bit of a chop But you have more of the liquidity above us right now by about three and a half thousand contracts Which is more than it was before and that's another sign before it was 2.4 thousand contracts now It's 3.7 thousand contracts Let's take a look at the nazi here And it's actually building above here. It really hasn't had the same drag down to the point of control It's retesting the view app. Let's see how it goes from here Take a look at rates off their uh, the prices off their lows rates are off their highs We do see some iceberg selling now thousand contracts on the sell side recently again That's not huge for a market that has such a huge order book in this order book right now. There's 255 thousand on the bid side and 295 thousand On the offer side So this is enormous when you compare it to the s and p or the order book is actually not nearly as big About 50 000 contracts across the ask and the bid And then the nazi act quite a bit smaller than that 9 000 across both so you can get a size of the relative book depth of all of these It's quite a big difference And when we look at s and p futures, it's also important to realize the vast majority Of price impact is from market makers hedging delta in spx options About 70 percent of notional value traded among options futures and Stocks is within the options market with about 50 percent of it trading to expire in six and a half hours or less Got about two minutes left here on the stream So again, thanks everyone for tuning in. We've got richman manufacturing coming up as we end the stream here It's not going to be a big mover in my opinion, but still worth watching And we're getting closer to a point where i'm looking at closing out this short We're building back above that 42 70 pivot And we see liquidity continuing to build above us and not below so i'm going to close this out And take my lumps on it and look for another opportunity We didn't get the follow-through that i was hoping for and because of that I don't want to stay in the trade In fact, the kind of relative resilience of buyers here is kind of impressive We have to give it to them that they were able to kind of look past that data The nasdaq now pushing above vwap as well. We do see some liquidity building above in excess of what is below by about I think that's going to be about 300 000 contracts or so And lots and lots of liquidity building up here in es above This is a pretty key level this gamma 4 level is an area that correlates to about 42 50 on spx Which was one of the levels we had talked about in the presentation as a key area to watch Very close to that pivot. So now that we're building up here It actually is looking more like the long side could be favored I think if we can take out that gamma level and that resting offer above us Then this would look like the an opportunity to potentially trade this with upside in favor So i want to thank everyone for tuning in this about the point where I need to wrap up the stream We remember we've got data coming out here and uh very shortly here. It actually just came out Looks like richman manufacturing just came out at three versus a forecast of three. So sort of a nothing burger there And uh, we are pushing into this key gamma level. So again for the long side trade We're looking for this resting offer to be taken out to the upside building some acceptance And then we could make a further push higher here So I hope this was helpful to everyone listening really appreciate you all tuning in if you have any questions for me Let me know and uh, you know, you can find me at traderade.com for shorter term trading Options driven tools and other kinds of insights on the market and education and macro visor.com Where we look at macro and make it actionable for longer term trades and investing Thanks again for everyone that tuned in and I'll catch you next week at Tuesday 9 a.m