 Good morning, great pleasure to be here. Always great to come back to Brussels So all the lights are pretty intense as I can't see you. That's I guess that's an advantage or disadvantage I've been how you look at it. I live in Switzerland a neutral country and I'm a futurist so I talk about future trends and I'm trying to share with you a couple things I am not going to give your predictions. You know, that's what fortune cookies are for As was said earlier, I think the best way to predict the future is to invent it As Alan Kay has said and I hope that you guys can invent the future today One of the things that I will mention, I think what's happening is that traditional television as we know it is kind of Getting dark in the sense of what it does You know, we're moving to a new definition of television and the great thing about television is that it's converging with the internet Unlike the music business, which has been trying to diverge from the internet I think television industry and the public service industry for television is already moving in this direction I think what we need to face is when disruption is ubiquitous, which it is every day now Transformation becomes everyone's job So I would propose to you to use the Google paradigm 10% of your time spent on Transformation think about that for a second if you spend 10% of your time thinking about the future and transforming How would that change your reality apart from being completely overloaded with work? Of course, you'd have to figure out what to do about this I think what we're seeing here is that this cause of disruption was seeing the old order the way things used to be and then there's a new order and Very often this new order is associated with piracy with illegal activities You know remember that YouTube the biggest broadcaster in the world basically Was illegal or more or less illegal and still is in many countries not entirely legal And all the stuff that came from YouTube has really changed the world And most disruptive innovation does not come from the current players who invented the self-driving car Not Audi or BMW or Volvo Google is Google planning to be a car company? No They're looking to disrupt and move things forward. So that's what we have to watch out for it will come from the outside all the key changes a couple examples in the book business It's easily possible to scan every single book and bookmates.ru have done this It's it's available for you to download any book you want I think something like 50 million if you speak Russian you can do that and Why has the book industry evolved from this rather than the music industry which has not evolved from this because Clearly there's a better offer and here the transformation in this case was the Kindle There's more Kindle books electronic books being sold than printed books Transformation here was key because why would people buy a book for real money? The Kindle books are not much cheaper than the print books. The answer is You have to be better than just free the Kindle is better than free and When the Kindle price drops to two dollars a book, why would she ever try to download it for free without paying the authors? So better than free is possible. It's not a mission impossible As had always been said about the music of the film industry and as Jeff Bezos says the sea of Amazon He is all about proactively the lighting customers This could be a first thing on your table this morning. How can you proactively delight your viewers? Use the Amazon paradigm. That's all he cares about the innovation that comes from this now television Google research says the television no longer commands a full attention People are doing other things and the stats show that for example people are more and more Fragmented so less and less people watching the same show worldwide. That's kind of true. I think so Transformation is to use that social medium along with television as I'm sure you talked about in the last few days Social TV you've seen the grace note app I think already and the fact that people are using second-screen devices. This is a lifesaver for television clearly Converge those two things So learning from this is follow the convergence Media is converging offline online is converging Industries are converging follow the convergence Third point telecom. You've seen this chart here. Maybe O2T is called over-the-top people are using Mobile broadband to make phone calls on Viber and what's up many of you. I'm sure have this So what is happening the talk hose are providing internet connectivity and in return we stop using them We stop using SMS This is the cash cow of three hundred seventy five million dollars every single day worldwide and we're going to stop using it So what are the telcos doing about this they're bundling it tell you as bundling music It's what to find this say in this case reliance in India's bundling That those kind of services into the bundle and telecom Indonesia one of my clients is going out to empower the customer They're going with what is inevitable anyway. So learning from this is We have to leave the silos behind Telcos are no longer in the business of providing phone calls or data there in the business of lifestyle There are platform providing services and added values Think of yourself in the same way. You're not a broadcaster Not just the broadcaster you're providing a lot more than that and there's a lot more to it The cable industry we've seen disruption there you see on this chart in America Is the cable industry is selling less and less of TV bundles, you know cable television bundles and more and more internet access So lucky for them. They're actually in both businesses, you know, I have television programs and internet access And transforming essentially by creating bundles So another good example for this basically is That taking leaps is a requirement you have to go out and do something that you haven't done before And I think this is fundamental, you know, I'm originally from Germany and and still I would say to you that it's probably better that we're looking at speed over perfection It's a very un-German thing to say But we have to take a leap. It's a requirement We cannot just go and say let's avoid risk at all costs because if we do that we have risk Very big problem Advertising You've seen the shifts and this is the latest stats from America on the right-hand side All of the big brands are trying to are going to get out of newspaper advertising and consumer magazines radio trade and television On the left is what they're going to do in the future mobile social media marketing automation and so on and so on So what are newspapers and publishers doing about this? Well They're discovering in this transformation That they have more to offer Added values like these and this chart you can see relevance filtering community reputation and so on this is very very important To publish this to discover a great example is the economist Which is allowing me to listen to the magazine an audio version So when I'm driving my car, I can listen to the economist. That's why I subscribe So the answer of the columnist is not to say no you should pay us But their answer is we'll provide more value and you will pay us. There's quite a difference Pay will pay wall. I Think it's going to be about pay will Learning from this is even the biggest empires Not to say that you guys are empires would eventually time out Empires become networks and if you become a network, I think you can create a new empire out of this doctors three months ago, I did a seminar for doctors and Guess what, you know doctors are worried about the internet because it's empowerment of the patient So there's there's squeeze between the electronic devices and the and the patients with iPads Coming and say, you know, I read this, you know, can you do it differently? And what do they do? Well, they use technology. They're going to use the Watson computer to have access to a huge database They're going to use iPads and of course medical robots Sounds like science fiction already here learning from this reduce control Will lie on trust and add value At this point, I think we've seen an aptly demonstrated in very other industries that Increasing control by the customer gets more control and the user is mission impossible I'll show you some more examples in that shortly. So the other learning I think that we can take from this is That the future is not a zero-sum game Just because people are on Facebook or looking at social media or YouTube doesn't mean they're going to like you less It doesn't mean they're going to ignore television just because they have Facebook. There's a bridge between the two I think this idea of a zero-sum pie. We have to put away This pie is growing and it's going to be available to all of us. I Worked in the music business for a long time. Many of you may know my book the future of music 2005 Whatever you're going to do don't mirror the music business This is the easiest, you know anti paradigm I know this intimately because I've worked with them for 15 years and they recently stopped doing it for obvious reason Okay, this is what they do right they try to lock up with copy protection They complain about people not paying they try to pass legislation to protect their business model They're talking about piracy and they're talking about how dopey in France passing laws that prevent this They're killing innovation with bad licensing rules like Spotify Basically music business has made mission impossible out of digital media what they should do is Accept that everything is moving into the cloud and that people are using cloud computing Change usage rights come up with standards For this become indispensable and be liked Did you know that last year two years ago the music companies were the most hated companies in the world right? After the guys that make the bombs for Iraq Halliburton That's quite an achievement for an industry. So whatever you do don't do that Okay Because in the end it's all about this as a public broadcaster as a public media It's about trust and relevance and what is called like a comics. It's a great book with that title. You should read It's about being liked and being well what is the same thing people that don't like you won't find you relevant I love art anybody from Arte here Arte the television. Okay. Yes. I love Arte and I love that and this is why I'm happy to pay my taxes Because I like them and I see the value so trust social capital and I think the License to operate in the future will not be the political license to get your public broadcasting funds It'll be purely based on a license to operate a social license to operate If you see for example on the left the music business Recorded music declining half of the American kids saying they spend zero dollars on music How is there possible when you see transformation like this Netflix you guys know Netflix, I'm sure 42 million subscribers paying $10. What in the world is wrong with the music people? If 42 million people are paying $10, what's wrong with these guys? Transformation so learning from this is Embrace what customers? Consumers users viewers actually want and don't re-educate three billion people on their media behavior Embrace what they actually want. It's not rocket science. Ask your kids. They know The app economy so all of you guys have mobile phones You see what's happening here is that the mobile app economy is exploding more and more people using mobile apps and Over here app stores are exploding Apple makes more money selling apps and selling music Why in the world are we paying $2 for a divorce app or something? Which exists actually there's a hundred of them if we're not going to pay a dollar for music because we see value The app economy offers some great learnings So I want to find rather than say yes, I think it is possible for public broadcasters to Transform into the digital age by using this very simple Paradigm to start a new order and parallel to the old order Thanks very much for your time. You can download my slides at future was good calm or my dropbox site Which is good cloud calm. Thanks very much