 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Tuesday 15th of June and gonna run you through and get up to speed on the clothes on Wall Street What happened overnight in Asia and then some of the highlights for what's on the calendar for the session ahead and Overall this morning just looking across the charts here things are relatively quiet one thing that you probably can observe though is a bit of a late ramp here in Wall Street on the center charts here Which is the nasdaq 100 the S&P 500? And actually we've just added to that a little bit and then faded off those highs during the Asia pack session But these are all-time fresh record highs as far as the nasdaq the S&P is concerned on the actual print on the clothes continue to see really a digestion of that more rotational play Albeit it's moderate, but definitely evident in post CPI trade Which is what had been yields generally depressed and that's been helping large tech fangs were outperforming again yesterday And then as that was up around nine tenths of one percent compared to the Dow Which actually finished down around a quarter percent We've seen that pretty much consistent pattern of tech outperformance since that CPI figure came out on Thursday So the last couple of sessions One thing I would say is though is that things are relatively flat for the moment There's not really a great deal of real meaningful information overnight Although I do want to update you on a on a few things So maybe just a little bit of a light profit taking from those highs in Asia pack session But if you're looking at the S&P 500 here this morning, it is still sat at around those highs So you can see here and that was that late ramp going into the final half an hour of trade on Wall Street One thing to say is that that looks like perhaps a news catalyst has created that move But I wasn't at my desk at half eight last night But from what I can see on the headline feed it doesn't look like anything and very much often the case going into that final half an hour of trade If you ever look at the market on close the MOC If you're not familiar with that terminology if you just check it out on invest investopedia, for example But market on close can often see a fairly significant imbalance on say buy side or sell side And you do tend to see quite large fluctuation fluctuations going into the final half an hour of trade So perhaps that was a little bit of play and and now technically we've got that previous high And we've got a bit of a platform from where we hit that initial high Just after or at the closing bell and then pushed through it and used it as a support area during the Asia pack session So kind of confided by their 42 48 and a quarter in the R1 Which is just above the all-time high in Asia pack double top that we've traded so far around 42 54 55 at the moment Otherwise elsewhere One of the other things I guess to have a look at was gold Have seen gold come under some considerable pressure Yesterday and it was a bit of a continuation of the move that we're seeing at the end of last week popped higher Shortly through the Comics open and when the US started to really come into market and short term I'm just keeping an eye on Probably this kind of range at the moment of what we were trading In the Asia pack session before a brief move lower that we saw Again pretty light in the way of any real catalysts for that move But obviously liquidity fairly thin in the overnight session and as such then we've been responding to a short term trend line Marked from the low from yesterday when we were trading around the 1845 area and it's been Used a couple times and responded to On the Asia pack trading hours So around there increasing up towards through the pivot level here going into the european Open this morning So near term just having a look at that trend line pivot on the downside 64 and a half And then the upside a pack high at 69 for the time being any break up above there And then you've got 1870 kind of two a area which was that high seen yesterday afternoon And also the low print that we had Towards the back end of last week and any push on above that then be looking up to this area here of support and consolidation that we saw around 77 78 And gold though under a bit of pressure Of late overall and it has come as yields have seen a little bit of movement So the us 10 year you'll remember was just on a pretty one-way train Moving higher as yields continue to back off last week and obviously yields Broke through 1.5 percent. We actually saw a move to the lowest level since march But yesterday saw a bit of reversal of that Perhaps a bit of profit-taking on that fairly one-dimensional move that we saw last week It just faded a little bit and just having a look at us 10 year yields This is looking it's a bit of perspective here on on the chart and time frame This is going back over the last About two years or so and here you can see this is the move That we had during the onset of the pandemic This is looking at us 10 year yields And just wanted to really emphasize the importance of the area that we're trading at the moment, which is 1.5 You can see here that really was the low Of that move that we saw When yields were declining going back into the summer of 2019 came back to it towards the Autumn and then had another test of going back in early part of 2020 before then the eventual breakdown That ensued when yields collapsed on the onset of the the pandemic and the obviously response in monetary policy and fiscal policy and so on Now we've come back through that you can see again It acted as an area of resistance and now we dropped through it. We're sitting back on there So this is quite a key area around 1.5 in the us 10s and definitely as far as today's session is concerned I think it probably could be quite quiet now We're probably just want to wait for the fed meeting although Not expecting perhaps quite as much from that fed meeting as I was a couple weeks ago Seems like the can's going to be kicked a little bit before the real heated discussions around tapering But nonetheless, probably the 10 year might trade fairly Muted today as we await then more information coming out with the latest projections and a dot plot and so on in tomorrow's Session otherwise finally with the charts FX markets pretty quiet dollars pretty flat and if you look at the pound Just having a little break above an area of short-term resistance here at 141 21 As you can see as far as yesterday evening was concerned absolutely zero reaction to the extension of course of the Lockdown measures. This was very well telegraphed in the press and comes in absolutely no surprise So p.m. Johnson last night confirming the four-week extension to lockdown The government's expected to put the delay to debate And vote on wednesday in parliament And it is likely that johnson's going to face anger from conservative colleagues for backtracking and what they were dubbing as freedom day A couple of points that I mentioned in my morning notes on this and if you want to check those out You can find them on my my twitter account Or or in the amphi live community But my my point really being that irrespective of the political headache that johnson's government's likely to face From a number of internal conservative members I actually think that No, logically you would think well delaying reopening is going to be a net negative for sterling For example, because it's going to impede economic activity I actually think the opposite because a lot of the mathematical modeling that I was following from various different people who are who who have much more Intelligence than I were coming out with some pretty interesting and very frightening Estimates of what this wave could look like If we were to go ahead and reopen on the 21st Predominately based on lots of different reasons as well The ones that we talked about about still some remaining over 50s to get fully vaccinated Time for that vaccine to kick in in terms of its full level of immunity from it And then also as well the fact that we're still in the school year as well with the the transmission amongst the young This all coming of course because now Nine out of ten cases in the uk are the delta variant and so that being more transmissible than the alpha variant And that of then the original covid so much more Um ability to transmit and therefore for me I think that this actually this delay could end up being a net positive overall I don't I don't mean just by the pound this morning, but I definitely don't think it's a negative and actually I think it's a positive step Economically because although there's some short-term pain obviously from not fully reopening I actually think that you're mitigating the risk that what could have been much more stringent onerous restrictions that would have had to have come in If as some of the the scientific modeling was suggesting We could have seen a wave to the same proportion of that of what we had in the spring of 2020 on the original onset of covid 19 So I know this is a very contentious issue. There's also people that would say we should have reopened but for me The scientific evidence is pretty compelling and acting on that I think then safeguards us from having a more contained Latest wave which will inevitably allow us to open Sooner rather than what would have been later if we would have reopened It would have spread and we would have had to have gone into a firm lockdown thereafter So for me, this is actually a positive rather than a negative um I guess the other thing is that as much as there's Tory members that are going to Be really annoyed and frustrated by this and that's going to be evident in the Commons vote on Wednesday. I'm sure The latest you gov poll which came out last night after this was confirmed by Johnson's government Showed that 71 percent of English adults Supported the move to delay the reopening by four weeks. So the overwhelming majority So as far as that is concerned, I think Boris will be able to bat off any of that internal infighting Because the public seemingly agree with that move The government will review the date again on June 28th with the possibility of easing restrictions on July 5th If it looks better than expected But in honesty, this is considered as pretty unlikely at this point So it will go ahead as as per the statement last night But as I said pound hasn't reacted at all to this um in other news Biden continues to do the kind of round so to speak. So this time he's been at NATO um and NATO leaders Designated China that's presenting a systemic challenge in a summit communique on Monday Taking a forceful stance towards Beijing. It was biden's first summit with the alliance And beijing has responded and they've said that NATO needs to stop exaggerating the threat theory This of course comes after pretty similar rhetoric that we have from the g7 and cornwall at the weekend. So biden As we were kind of talking about doing his best to go to all these kind of unifying groups to try and bring together this collective stance against China at this point, which is something we knew that was high on the biden agenda with this latest tour President biden also stated that russia and china are looking to drive a wedge In the transatlantic solidarity And that we will respond if russia continues harm for activities While he added that russia and president putin chooses not to cooperate on cyber security and other things Then the us will respond and of course All of this is very much the optics around the fact that biden's going to be meeting putin tomorrow in switzerland So there's a lot of flexing of muscles You know kind of a posturing and these types of things again as far as the putin meeting is concerned We're not looking or expecting anything in terms of tangible results It's more about the atmosphere that surrounds the discussions that they have Does that then conclude their conversations in the joint statement? Which is deemed to be a positive rather than them to just log ahead to going their own ways And do they then commit to having further dialogue in the future? It's probably the best case scenario in that sense. So yeah, again, nothing really actionable Intra day, but something to be aware of No let up from the us on china at the moment There was a few other small things overnight, which probably just warrant a mention But again, it's more of an update to be aware of than something that meaningful The rba minutes From the june meeting stated the board agreed it would be premature to end Or consider ending the bond buying program and policy needs to remain highly accommodative in order to achieve full employment No real reaction seen in the osse overnight again. These are the dated minutes and then from a u.s. stimulus perspective Um, you know, is this thing ever going to get done on the infrastructure side? Well, the latest there is that senator manchin said further By partisan infrastructure talks are coming this week The group of senators will set a proposal out by the end of the week And obviously manchin being quite key because he's that particular Senator who's really on the fence of not is he going to support biden's agenda on this infrastructure bill? As seen as a real power player in these talks The other then is the us senate majority leader schumer who has said the senate will move forward with another infrastructure package via Reconciliation, even if it doesn't have bipartisan support So china puts a pressure on that they'll look to use reconciliation to get around it If so necessary, so I think that's more targeted at just trying to keep some momentum behind the dialogue at the moment So nothing really too much to comment on there for the time being As far as the calendar is concerned for today's session We've just had some uk data come out since i've been talking So just to get you up to speed the uk employment change 113 000 versus expected 150 The unemployment rate 4.7 percent in line with expectations the uk average earnings exponents 5.6 percent touch above the expected 5.3 so Not really too much of any type of immediate reaction here, but cable has managed technically now Let's get above this rectangle area I've got a previous support and resistance and you can see after the breakthrough It's come back to use that as a bit of a launch pad of support to now just Eek out a more progressive move up towards the r1 here So, yeah with that data nothing really too surprising If anything the average earnings number is a little bit higher than expected with inline unemployment. So perhaps some Some moderate wins in the sale to help this move higher and as I said, I actually think the delay is not a negative Even though it does have some short-term repercussion on economic activity I actually think it's a positive move and that's how I think the market will see it in in controlling the potential more severe Case outbreak due to the transmissibility of the delta variant otherwise Other than that and pretty quiet for the morning and then you've got a really jam-packed 130 data set Coming out and that's because you've got three real figures new or fed manufacturing US PPI and the latest US retail sales figures They're all coming out at 130. So whenever you see the calendar quite Packed at one single moment It does tend to add to then the kind of Mix signals that you get on the back of data points because obviously It's going to be multiple variables. They could be conflicting signals Probably the ones I think that the market will look at with a bit of clarity will be retail sales That has seen some flip-flopping as we've seen to kind of stimulus check impacts go in and out through the january march figures So it will be interested to see how that is performing PPI is of course On the more inflation side and then on the manufacturing side for the new york fed figure As well, but that's expected to remain fairly consistent at 22 from previous 24 So 130 is going to be interesting for sure I'd say that will likely act as then probably the main catalyst for Subsequent price movement for the rest of the session ahead of the open then on wall street an hour later 230 As far as then later in the session, there are a few more things industrial production from the u.s Coming out capital utilization at 215 You've got business inventories and na hb housing market index at three o'clock And then you've got all infantry data from the api usual much later in the evening at 9 30 if you're looking at it London time. So quite a jam-packed day actually after what was quite a quite calendar obviously last week and and yesterday to some respect So things should pick up pace on that front. Certainly Going forward now Speaker wise the chief economist from the ecb philip lane speaks at midday Bank of England governor bailey speaks at 115 and he speaks panetta just before 3 p.m The two ecb speakers will have no text according to the media office at the ecb and bank of england governor bailey is going to be speaking at a city a.m conference on financial services So i'm not expecting or anticipating any meaningful comments on either the current economic Conditions or future monetary policy, but nonetheless to be aware of here speaking uk supply uk german and then 24 billion dollars coming in the 20-year bond auction later on this evening at 6 p.m But that is it. So i'm going to leave you with that Again, if you're watching this on youtube Really appreciate it if you could like the video help it boost it So it goes out share it as many people as possible subscribe to the channel And any questions at all feel free to leave a comment absolutely happy to help have a great day ahead guys Take care and see you tomorrow