 Good afternoon everybody. I'm Fergal MacDemora and I'm the co-chair of the Climate and Energy Group here at the IEA. And I'm delighted this afternoon to welcome Dr. Timor Gul, Chief Technology Officer of the IEA, which is International Energy Agency, an organisation well known to many of us here. They're a policy advisor to their member governments, including Ireland. And our own Minister, Amon Ryan, is the co-chair of the agency. And they produce flagship reports to our energy outlook and the energy technology perspectives every two-year cycle. And periodic peer reviews, much appreciated of Irish energy policy. And over the years, we've had several speakers from the agency here, including Dr. Mirol, Claude Mandel, I can remember back when he came to us. And last year Laura Kossi came. In his address this afternoon, Timor will discuss the role of the energy technologies and innovation in the energy transition. And he will speak for 20 minutes or so, followed by a little discussion with me and Q&A that I hope that you will put in by using the Q&A function in Zoom. And let us know please who you are and who you're affiliated with. And put them in as soon as they occur to you, don't please don't wait until the end of the call and I'll do my best to get to them and put them to Timor. If you use Twitter or X, please use the handle at IEA. And with that, it's my great pleasure to introduce Dr. Timor Roul, who's Chief Technology Officer of the IEA, has responsibility for analyzing innovative and emerging new technologies in the energy transition. Timor has been with the IEA since 2009 and was formerly a lead author of the World Energy Outlook, a German national and before the IEA worked as a researcher at the Paul Scheer Institute in Switzerland. And so with that Timor, very welcome to the IEA and we're delighted to hear your address. Thank you. Yeah, thank you very much Fargo and a real, really great pleasure to be here with you today. It's the first time I have the opportunity but I know as you just said that several of my colleagues, IEA senior management have been addressing this audience in the past so I'm really delighted to be here with you today. My role here at the IEA is mostly to look at everything that deals with new and emerging clean energy technologies, which is of course an area that is currently front and center with many governments around the world. We are advising our member governments, but also many other governments around the world, as well as stakeholders from all parts of the energy system, be it the industry, be it finance sector, be it the research community, be it civil society, whoever it is. Everyone, energy is something that concerns all of us, both in terms of our daily uses of energy but also of course the impacts that energy has on climate, air pollution and many, many other fields so really delighted to be here with you today. The intention of my talk, taking it a bit from my role as chief energy technology officer here today is to look at the clean energy transition through the lens of technology. I have drawn some of our recent work here, which is in particular our recently released net zero by 2050 roadmap update. We launched that in September, but also looking into some of the kind of related aspects on clean energy technology supply chains for many of the kind of key technologies that everyone is currently looking at. One of the overarching themes I guess is of our work that we have been doing in this particular year is to think through the transition to net zero by 2050. So what you would roughly require to meet the 1.5 degrees temperature goal. And the underlying reasons why we as the IA think that despite the pathway to net zero by 2050 narrowing, we believe that the strong development that we're seeing in clean energy is actually leaving that pathway still open. I hope you can see my screen well but what I would like to start with is the fact that there are our new screens are too often filled with bad news and I understand them. I mean all of us. I guess have that have a set of similar sentiment here CO2 emissions are to record high the impacts of climate change are becoming ever more visible energy prices remain high and volatile, but they are also a lot of reasons to be optimistic. It is, we should not stop by looking at the bigger picture only but should also look at some of the underlying structural changes that are going on in the energy sector in particular in the case of clean energy technologies where we have seen incredible growth quite frankly. Over the last two years ever since the IA released for the first time it's net zero by 2050. Let me give you two key examples here one is electric cars of course the sales have increased massively since the Paris agreement was brought adopted in 2015 with over 25 million electric cars being sold over this time and around 60% of these sales took place just in the last two years. So the growth of electric car sales as we're seeing it in global markets by now is actually on track with what you need to reach a net zero by 2050 pathway. Last year, we had roughly 15% of all cell car sales being electric. Just three years ago it was 2.5%. For this year we expecting one in five cars being sold in the world markets being electric so massive growth that took place here. Very similarly of course for solar PV the global rate of installations has dramatically increased over the last few years with capacity additions last year almost four times higher than in 2015 the year of the Paris agreement around one third of all solar costs being sold just over the last two years. Again significant growth again on track with what you actually need to be achieving for reaching net zero by 2050. Of course not all of the technologies are on track here. This is not a story that is universal across the energy sector. Winter is one example. Manufacturers of wind turbines have been really struggling to boost productions of key components on against the backdrop of supply chain disruptions cost increases CCS for example, technologies that has long been seen as very promising. And in fact, is important for reaching net zero missions has so far really disappointed and underperformed compared to expectations and what I'm trying to say here is that this is a very complex landscape. You should not look at CO2 emissions alone, not look at the negative news alone. There are a lot of nuances here a lot of reason to be optimistic on the clean energy side, but also some reason to be attentive and from our perspective as I said earlier, the pathway to 1.5 degrees has narrowed but we do believe clean energy growth is keeping it open. Now, an important part of a policy consideration and also as we're going into COP 28 is that we already have many of the tools that we need in energy markets today. We identified for key areas that are actually particularly important to bend the emission curse to sharply downwards to 2030 they're all well understood, they're all cost effective, and they're all being already deployed at an accelerating scale. These are as you see here, scaling up renewable deployment. These are improving the energy intensity improvements through electrification as well as so increasing energy efficiency and cutting methane emission. The objective in our net zero pathway as we have it here is for annual sector greenhouse gas emission to fall by nearly 40% by 2030 and we do think from according to our analysis that these actions that you can see here on the screen that can deliver over 80% of the emission reductions that need to be achieved between now and 2030. If you look at somewhat closer on how this plays out these particular areas play out, then you need, then you see that what you need first and foremost is a tripling of renewable capacity additions, renewable capacity by the year 2030 to reach 11,000 gigawatt in total. So, this is the single largest driver of emission reductions for this particular for this decade to 2030 and so we're encouraged to see the strong momentum that this message that we put forward already early in the year but now with the update of the net zero by 2050 wrote never once again, that this is resonating in global climate discussions. The solar PV and wind are widely deployed rapidly deployable. They're also in most cases the cheapest new source of electricity in many markets today. We actually see that current policy settings already put advanced economies and China on track to achieve 85% of their contribution that they need to make to for this particular global goal, but in other countries, much more supports will be needed the cost of capital for renewables and emerging markets. And developing economies is more than double in advanced economies and so stronger policies and international support will be needed here. Of course, global renewable capacity needs to triple to be on track for our net zero by 2050 pathway, but they're also with a changing policy landscape new opportunities coming up for nuclear energy with more than 30 countries, accepting nuclear power today and increasing their use in a pathway that is compatible with the net zero by 2050. The second pillar that we've highlighted is doubling the rate of energy intensity improvement. It's the second largest source of emission reductions that you can have to 30 certainly in our pathway. There are three key levers here at the global level each lever has roughly the same importance, but each country will have different approaches here we're not all the same as a country in terms of our energy sectors etc. We have different starting points, different economic power to it etc. Some countries will switch focus more on switching to more efficient fuels in advanced economies electrification years of course particularly important in developing countries, you can get huge energy savings from universal services to clean cooking. Some countries will need more and improving the technical efficiency of end use technologies. Some countries may choose to promote awareness and incentives that foster behavioral changes so there are many components that can help double the energy intensity improvements The third element is dramatic cut in methane emissions from fossil fuel operations 75% is what we think is actually possible achievable mainly through rapid and concerted efforts to lower methane intensity across the fossil fuel industry, including through measures that help reduce flaring venting and stopping Stopping leaks produce economies are of course crucial in this regard here Canada has already set a national goal of reducing fossil fuel methane by 75% Other countries are falling suit there is a global methane pledge in the in under the cop taking place so there are many, many efforts that are being taken but the key point here is that this is cost effective this is rapidly doable. There is no new technology that you need to invent what you need to deal with is practices and oil and gas field operations you need to deal with leaks in the pipelines etc. This is not rocket science it is technology that exists and operations that need to be improved. Now, what you need to achieve. I hinted that already through the case of renewables but what you, but it's true more broadly what you need to achieve in a net zero by 2050 pathway is strong growth in clean energy technologies deployment and clean energy growth doesn't come for free. It needs a big push in investment. This year, the world is set to invest roughly $1.8 trillion in clean energy. This needs to come to climb to $4.5 trillion by the year 2030 at two and a half times roughly increase over today's level. The sharpest jump you need to achieve here is in clean energy investment in emerging markets and developing economies outside China, where this is not a two and a half times increase but it's a seven fold increase to 2030 that we need to achieve in a net zero by 2050 pathway. It will require stronger domestic policies together with enhanced and more effective international collaboration and around 80 to $100 billion in annual concessional findings and so on. So a big push in clean energy investment is what is required to achieve all those structural changes that we need to achieve in this present decade. The impact of this is of course a strong growth in clean energy technology deployment. You need a significant turnaround in the way we consume and we produce energy. The key part here is that scaling up the clean is not the only thing you need to achieve. You also need to bring down the dirty, which is fossil fuels. So you need well designed policy measures, including the early retirement or repurposing of coal-fired power plants, the removal of fossil fuel subsidies in order to help the scaling up of clean energy technologies that it leads to a decline in fossil fuel demand and not only to increase in energy use. Total fossil fuel demand in our scenario drops by more than one quarter by 2030 and more than 80% by the year 2030 and that confirms our analysis that no new fossil fuel investment is actually needed in this particular pathway. Now, a key point of the analysis is actually a key narrative and a key insight that we've been developing over the course of this year is that the clean energy transition is increasingly not only a question of climate change anymore. It's also not only a question of energy security anymore, where of course the moment you don't use fossil energy but use clean energy, domestically sourced energy in particular, you enhance your energy security. But above and beyond that, there is now an industrial opportunity that is shaping up. We do believe that a lot of reason for hope for the clean energy transition is not only coming from policy, it is also coming from the clean energy industry. Clean technology manufacturing today is an immense industrial opportunity that not only the industries but also countries are increasingly recognizing, taking advantage of. We already have a huge capacity to manufacture key technologies in operation today for solar PV and wind. Their output is equivalent to roughly one third of the production we need by 2030 in our net zero by 2050 pathway for heat pumps is around one quarter. Solar PV manufacturing capacity in particular is not fully utilized. We manufacturers are currently operating on average well below those levels that could be considered as typical industrial operations, which is around 85%. This is because investment were made in anticipation of higher demand. If operated at a typical level than today's capacity would already be sufficient to supply two thirds of the solar PV deployment that is needed in 2030 to be on track with net zero by 2050. And there's more to come. Of course, many countries are putting in place supporting policies in that regards. We are collecting industry announcements from around the world. And if we assume that all manufacturing projects that have been announced around the world proceed on time and in full then global manufacturing capacities for solar PV and electric vehicle batteries would essentially be sufficient already by 2030 to meet the demand that we are seeing in a 20 net zero by 2050 pathway, even in this updated scenario that we produced in September where we actually putting a high burden on these very promising very fast growing type of technologies. This is significant because solar PV and electric cars alone provide around one third of the emission reductions that you need to achieve by 2030 in a net zero by 2050 party pathway relative to today. Of course, not all of these projects will go ahead. Let's be also very clear about that many of them have not yet reached a final investment decision or started construction and the announced manufacturing capacity for other technologies is still quite far from the models needed by 2030 wind industry supply chains in particular struggling. I mentioned that earlier where the announced manufacturing projects for for way short of what is required in this really an area where policy support is needed. But we have seen in the past that manufacturing capacity can be ramped up very quickly. It takes roughly one to three years on average to build a new manufacturing capacity. And the times are very, very short here. Another reason why we do believe that there's a cost to be optimistic on the clean energy transition is coming from progress on innovation. When we released for the first time our net zero roadmap in 2021. We showed that almost half of the CO2 reductions in 2050 that are needed need to come from technologies that at the time of writing were not yet in the market at that time. This is not about technology miracles. Don't get me wrong on that one. It is just that some important technologies such as certain battery types, clean technologies and heavy industries shipping aviation. We're still at demonstration or prototype stage. What we do here at the IA is we track the readiness of more than 550 clean energy technologies which allows us to reflect closely on technology progress. The good news that is coming from that assessment is that in our updated pathway, looking at it fresh again this year, the share of emission reductions by 2050 coming from technologies under development today decreased from what was almost half two years ago to around 35%. There are two factors that underpin that first considerable progress that has been made on clean energy innovation, including through the commercialization of some key technologies. So the volume batteries, for example, and the second one is that the market for clean energy technologies is changing very quickly. And so as I said earlier, we have updated our analysis with recent investment trends and announcements from technology manufacturers that basically gives rise to hope on that front. Of course, there's much more that is needed. Innovation is not something that you need to stop at a certain moment because we have everything in the market. First, we don't have everything in the market. Still 35% of emission savings come from technologies that are not commercially viable today. And of course, innovation continues as you are entering the market to bring down the cost of these technologies. Nonetheless, very strong progress on the clean energy innovation space. As I said earlier, clean energy technologies are no longer its deployment, its manufacturing, etc. This is no longer just a question of addressing climate change, energy security alone. It's also about the industrial opportunity that comes with it. And we've made in earlier this year in the context of our energy technology perspectives a detailed analysis of key elements of clean energy technology supply chains where we found that these supply chains today are heavily geographically concentrated. The discussion there is, of course, very frequently around mining around concentration risks and that's understandable. The top three producer countries account, for example, for 80% of global production in the case of cobalt 90% for lithium and around 45% for copper. But concentration is not limited to mining alone. As you move further downstream, you see very similar pictures in other parts of supply chains. Minerals must of course be processed and refined before they can become materials that can be used. And there you see very similar levels of geographical concentration today. Bulk materials are very important such as aluminum and steel for clean energy technologies. They are used to produce electric cars, wind turbines, etc. These materials are produced at scales that are orders of magnitude larger than for critical minerals in their mature market, but nonetheless very significant level of geographical concentration there as well. What's important here is that the manufacturing of the new and emerging clean energy technologies is also, in fact, almost more concentrated geographically than other steps, more than 80% of production capacity, more than 70% and in some cases up to 85% is helped by the top three producer countries for batteries for solar PV, for heat pumps, for electrolyzers. If you look at the largest individual producer country, you see that China plays a dominant role virtually everywhere, with the one exception being the mining step where resource endowment is of course the critical factor, not the policy effort, but for any other supply chain that China is the largest producing country today and is likely to remain that for years to come for some of the key components of solar PV and battery supply chains. In particular, China today already has significant access capacity in place and operates at very low utilization rates. As a final point, I would like to say a couple of words on the competitiveness of existing and new industries is a key concern for policymakers. It requires a careful look at the relative strengths for an effective participation in the new energy economy that is emerging. Access to low cost energy is a traditionally low competitive advantage. Of course, it can lead to lower production costs for energy and for commodities. This is not something that is going to disappear with a clean energy economy. If you take hydrogen as an example, then virtually all of the hydrogen that is produced today is made from natural gas and coal, typically at a cost of one to three dollars per kilogram. It's now increasingly produced at commercial scale using electrolyzers, but tends to be more expensive. The higher production costs here are set to plummet by 2030 from the falling cost of renewables, electrolyzers and hydrogen storage so that it could become competitive with conventional roots in areas with low cost renewable electricity, even without a subsidy. Just as oil and natural gas cost less to produce in some countries than in others, there will be significant variations in hydrogen production costs, mainly because of the underlying differences in the cost of renewable electricity. This you see here, the detailed geospatial modeling shows that production costs could be significantly lower in countries like China, India and the United States than in Japan and Western Europe. And the knock on effects on the cost of industrial commodities is that it could be produced, those commodities that could be produced using the hydrogen, such as primary steel, has knock on effects down the road. In the medium term, of course, Europe and other high cost regions that are at the innovation frontier will be able to maintain a competitive position if products in the market are differentiated according to the emission footprint. But in the longer term, more countries will be able to compete in the markets for such near zero emission commodities and then cost, of course, will become a critical factor again because commodities like steel are traded in fiercely competitive international markets. With that, I'd like to leave it here and very much look forward to the discussion. Thank you very much.